Category Archives: Finance & Economics

The Forest Service sells timber that can be used to build homes and make paper products, among other things… Goals for timber sales are set yearly but the Forest Service has missed those goals by about 10% in recent years. According to the agency, factors such as staffing and buyer interest affected timber sales… The Forest Service’s average timber target was about 6,281,000 hundred cubic feet (CCF) per year, and its average amount of timber sold was about 5,590,000 CCF per year, from fiscal years 2014 through 2023. The Forest Service did not meet its targets for the amount of timber sold for any of the years from fiscal years 2014–2023. Full report available here.

Builder sentiment held steady to end the year as high home prices and mortgage rates offset renewed hope about a better regulatory business climate in 2025. Along those lines, builders expressed increased optimism for higher sales expectations in the next months. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 46 in December, the same reading as last month, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). While builders are expressing concerns that high interest rates, elevated construction costs and a lack of buildable lots continue to act as headwinds, they are also anticipating future regulatory relief in the aftermath of the election. This is reflected in the fact that future sales expectations have increased to a nearly three-year high. …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions held steady at 48. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose three points to 66, the highest level since April 2022.

WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve is expected to lower borrowing costs on Wednesday in what some observers are calling a “hawkish cut” set to be delivered alongside policymakers’ updated interest rate outlooks and economic forecasts covering the first months of the incoming Trump administration. The anticipated quarter-percentage-point move would lower the U.S. central bank’s benchmark policy rate to the 4.25%-4.50% range, a full percentage point below where it stood in September when it began easing the tight monetary policy used to counter a surge in inflation that began in 2021. …Between data showing inflation stalled above the 2% target and Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election, investors now see the Fed perhaps cutting the benchmark rate by only half a percentage point next year – and they will be studying the projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks in a post-meeting press conference.

WASHINGTON — U.S. single-family homebuilding rebounded in November as the drag from hurricanes faded, but the threat of tariffs on imported goods and potential labor shortages from mass deportations could hamper new construction next year. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, jumped 6.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.011 million units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Data for October was revised to show homebuilding declining to a rate of 950,000 units from the previously reported pace of 970,000 units. …A National Association of Home Builders survey on Tuesday showed a measure of sales expectations in the next six months surging in December to the highest level since April 2022. …But economists were less enthusiastic, warning of even higher lumber prices and severe worker shortages if Trump followed through with tariffs and expulsions of undocumented immigrants, which would undermine the housing market.

Building Permits – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,505,000. This is 6.1% above the revised October rate of 1,419,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 972,000; this is 0.1% above the revised October figure of 971,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 481,000 in November. ..Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8% below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,011,000; this is 6.4% above the revised October figure of 950,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 264,000. …Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,601,000. This is 1.9% below the revised October estimate of 1,632,000. 

Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were unchanged in November according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to a year ago, this index was up 0.7% in November after rising 0.3% in October. …Among lumber and wood products, the commodities with the highest importance to new residential construction were general millwork, prefabricated structural members, softwood veneer/plywood, softwood lumber and hardwood veneer/plywood. The input commodity in residential construction that had the highest year-over-year percent change in November was softwood lumber, which was 13.7% higher than November 2023. …Lumber supplies have been driving prices higher over the past month as the sawmill industry continues to adjust to the mill closures that occurred earlier this year. 

The story of the 2024 housing market has been one of a nation frozen in place, with millions of people unable to move amid rising home prices, stubbornly high mortgage rates and a drastic shortage of inventory. The year is on track to have the slowest housing market in three decades, with a projected four million home sales, according to the National Association of Realtors — making 2024 the second straight year of historically anemic sales. The last time sales dipped that low was in 1995, when the U.S. population was 22 percent smaller than it is today… The depths of the housing slump surprised even economists, who had predicted that by spring, mortgage rates would fall enough to pull sales out of last year’s doldrums. Instead, inflation remained stubborn, driving up interest rates. [A free account is needed to read this article]

Inflation picked up to 2.7% in November, while matching expectations, the last mile to the Fed’s 2% target proves to be the most challenging. Shelter costs continued to be the main driver of inflation, contributing nearly 40% of the monthly increase. However, the year-over-year change in the shelter index remained below 5% for a third straight month, suggesting moderation in housing inflation. While the Fed’s interest rate cuts could help ease some pressure on the housing market, its ability to address rising housing costs is limited, as these increases are driven by a lack of affordable supply and increasing development costs. …Furthermore, the election result has put inflation back in the spotlight… as proposed tax cuts and tariffs could increase inflationary pressures. …Given the housing market’s sensitivity to interest rates, this could extend affordability crisis and constrain housing supply as builders continue to grapple with lingering supply chain challenges.

The US housing market in 2024 has softened under the weight of high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. …In terms of construction activity, single-family housing starts have shown modest growth, running at an annualized rate of 1 million units for the August-October period, 4.5% above last year’s pace. Conversely, multifamily starts have trended lower, down 15% from a year ago. Looking ahead, falling mortgage rates and improving builder confidence signal a potential upturn. However, the interplay of affordability and supply expansion, particularly for middle-income buyers, will be pivotal. …Federal policy changes will influence bond markets and mortgage rates, indirectly shaping the housing landscape. Builders remain cautiously optimistic. …These developments will be closely watched for their impact on housing—and, by extension, pallet demand, as framing lumber prices are a key leading indicator for low-grade lumber.

WASHINGTON, DC – The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 0.4 points in November to 75.0, continuing its sharp upward trend over the past year as consumers appear to be acclimating to the higher mortgage rate and home price environment. This month, a new record-high share of consumers indicated that they expect mortgage rates to decline over the next 12 months, while fewer respondents said they expect home prices to rise. While only 23% believe it’s a “good time to buy a home,” on net that component continued its upward trend, and is now notably higher than last November’s share of 14%. The share of respondents saying it’s a “good time to sell” remained flat month over month but is also up from last year. Year over year, the HPSI is up 10.7 points.

WASHINGTON, DC – Following an average expectation for national home price growth of 5.2% in 2024, a panel of over 100 housing experts forecasts home price growth to decelerate to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, according to the Q4 2024 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey. The panel’s latest estimates of national home price growth represent an upward revision from last quarter’s expectations of 4.7% for 2024, 3.1% for 2025, and 3.3% for 2026. …On average, the panelists expect existing home sales to remain sluggish for another year, new home sales to trend slightly upward, and mortgage rates to remain elevated but modestly decline over the course of the year to 6.3 percent. …”While home price growth is expected to ease next year, HPES panelists’ big-picture view for 2025 appears to be little changed compared to 2024,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.

The U.S. exported 839,226.4 metric tons of wood pellets in October, down from 898,128.2 metric tons the previous month, but up from 835,490.8 metric tons in October 2023, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. The U.S. exported wood pellets to approximately a dozen countries in October. The U.K. was the top destination for U.S. wood pellet exports at 700,824 metric tons, followed by Denmark at 92,850.8 metric tons. The value of U.S. wood pellet exports fell to $154.72 million in October, down from $167.05 million in September and $155.41 million in October of last year. Total wood pellet exports for the first 10 months of 2024 reached 8.25 million metric tons at a value of $1.53 billion.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in November to 111.7 (1985=100), up 2.1 points from 109.6 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased by 4.8 points to 140.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions— ticked up 0.4 points to 92.3, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was November 18, 2024. “Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market.

Steadily rising mortgage rates coupled with ongoing affordability challenges kept many potential home buyers on the sidelines in October. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in October declined 17.3% to a 610,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in October is down 9.4% compared to a year earlier. October new home sales are up 2.1% on a year-to-date basis. …New single-family home inventory in October remained elevated at a level of 481,000, up 8.8% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 9.5 months’ supply at the current sales pace. A measure near a six months’ supply is considered balanced.

Related by NAHB’s Robert Dietz:

• Small Gain for Multifamily Built-for-Sale Construction
• Apartment Completions Rise Resulting in Slower Absorption Rates

   

The U.S. homebuilding industry faces a mix of optimism and concern as it looks ahead to the policy environment under president-elect Donald Trump’s administration. While the rhetoric around mass deportations of undocumented immigrants and steep tariffs on foreign goods presents real risks, many industry leaders believe the potential economic tailwinds of lower corporate taxes, deregulation, and a more favorable lending environment will outweigh these challenges. For homebuilders navigating a volatile housing market, the prevailing sentiment is that the opportunities to play offense in the next four years will outweigh the risks of playing defense… With strategies in place to adapt to changing conditions, many believe the next four years will be a time to play offense, leveraging economic tailwinds to expand operations and meet the nation’s housing needs.

The uptick in fuel prices will likely be temporary, said Ken Simonson, chief economist at the Associated General Contractors of America. However, the broader uncertainty tied to potential trade policy changes under the incoming Trump administration presents a new layer of unpredictability for contractors. …Future prices for crude oil and copper, typically reliable predictors of upcoming producer price index shifts, have recently declined. That indicates the potential for a near-term dip in energy input costs, he said. Contractors have largely benefited from input price stabilization in 2024. As of October, contractors expect their profit margins to expand through the first quarter of 2025. …“The next administration’s trade policy increases uncertainty regarding construction material costs,” said Basu. “Beyond the implications of potential tariffs, input prices may rise in the short term if purchasers rush to import materials prior to the implementation of those policies.”

A Washington lobbyist said changes in Congress and the White House look largely positive for the interests of the woodworking industry. Speaking to members of the Wood Industry Association, Patrick Rita of Orion Advocates reported on changes in the make-up of Congressional committee leadership, cabinet appointments announced so far, and the fate of legislation still in Congress or expected to be acted on in 2025. He reminded WIA members that this is a “lame duck” Congress… and doesn’t think there will be definitive action on a farm bill before Congress ends its session. …He reviewed what the election would do to change the leadership of key committees in Congress. In virtually all the cases he cited, including committees concerned with agriculture, the environment, energy, natural resources, finance, commerce, and appropriations, he predicted the new committee leadership would be largely friendly to the concerns of the woodworking industry.

NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates relatively flat conditions for custom home builders after a period slight softening of market share due to declining mortgage interest rates. However, post-election stock market gains should support custom building at the end of 2024 and going into 2025. There were 48,000 total custom building starts during the third quarter of 2024. This marks a 4% decline compared to the third quarter of 2023. Over the last four quarters, custom housing starts totaled 178,000 homes, just below a 1% decline compared to the prior four quarter total (179,000).

In related NAHB coverage: Existing Home Sales In October Rebounded From A 14-Year Low

WASHINGTON, DC – Existing home sales are now expected to rise only 4 percent next year from a 2024 pace that is on track for a nearly 30-year low, according to the November 2024 commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The downward revision to the existing home sales outlook, which was previously forecast to rise 11% in 2025, is the result of significant upward movement in mortgage rates and other long-duration bonds in recent weeks. Whereas previously the ESR Group had expected mortgage rates to dip below 6% in early 2025, the revised forecast now shows mortgage rates ending 2025 at 6.3% and remaining above 6% through 2026. The ESR Group does expect a significant improvement in existing home sales of around 17% in its inaugural 2026 forecast, as affordability conditions improve, the lock-in effect weakens, and pent-up demand to move materializes. 

Builder sentiment improved for the third straight month, and builders expect market conditions will continue to improve with Republicans winning control of the White House and Congress. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 46 in November, up three points from October, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Future sales expectations posted a notable increase in the November reading of builder sentiment. …All three HMI sub-indices were up in November. The index charting current sales conditions rose two points to 49, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased seven points to 64 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point gain to 32.

WASHINGTON – US single-family homebuilding tumbled in October as Hurricanes Helene and Milton depressed activity in the South and permits rose slightly, suggesting that a rebound was likely to be muted by higher mortgage rates. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, plunged 6.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 970,000 units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Tuesday. Data for September was revised higher to show homebuilding rising to a rate of 1.042 million units from the previously reported pace of 1.027 million units. Single-family starts dropped 10.2% in the South. Permits for future construction of single-family housing gained 0.5% to a rate of 968,000 units. …Mortgage rates initially fell as the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates in September. They have, however, erased that decline on strong economic data and concerns that Trump’s policies could reignite inflation.

Jennifer Coskren, Fastmarkets’ director of wood products and timber, comments on the state of the US housing market and a look ahead to 2025. …Construction will ease about 5.5% this year, with the single-family component of our forecast still up 5% to just under one million units. While the September rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not immediately boost new home construction, future cuts are likely to encourage side lined buyers to enter the market. We are expecting an improvement in construction in 2025. We anticipate a rebound in both single-family and multi-family starts, with a forecast of approximately 1.5 million units, of which 1.1 million of them are single-family. Both single-family and multi-family are forecast to be up around 11%.

Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—decreased 0.2% in October according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to a year ago, this index is up 0.3% in October after a decline of 0.1% in September. …At the individual commodity level, excluding energy, the five commodities with the highest importance for building materials to the new residential construction index were as follows: ready-mix concrete, general millwork, paving mixtures/ blocks, sheet metal products, and wood office furniture/store fixtures. Across these commodities, there was price growth across the board compared to last year. Ready-mix concrete was up 3.7%, wood office furniture/store fixtures up 3.6%, general millwork up 2.8%, paving mixtures/blocks up 2.4% and sheet metal products up 0.6%.

Inflation picked up again in October, showing the last mile to the 2% target will be the hardest. Shelter costs remained the main driver of inflation, accounting for over 65% of the 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index. However, the year-over-year change in the shelter index has been below 5% for the second consecutive month, signaling some moderation in housing inflation. While the Fed’s interest rate cuts could help ease some pressure on the housing market, its ability to address rising housing costs is limited, as these increases are driven by a lack of affordable supply and increasing development costs. In fact, tight monetary policy hurts housing supply because it increases the cost of AD&C financing. Shelter costs continue to rise at an elevated pace despite Fed policy tightening. Additional housing supply is the primary solution to tame housing inflation.

Framing lumber prices continued to climb, and traders tried to assess a number of factors that might affect the market moving forward. The US presidential election injected a dose of optimism among some traders. They also weighed the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the benchmark interest rate 25 basis points, while Freddie Mac noted mortgage rates were still rising. The Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price gained for the sixth straight week, climbing $11 to $441. That is its highest level since August 2023. A fading Southern Pine market was once again an exception to an otherwise upward trend in most framing lumber species. While supply-driven strength persisted in Canada and the western US, downward price momentum mounted in the South. …Western S-P-F prices continued to climb by double-digit increments in most cases. Buyers with immediate needs padded thin inventories with available supplies.

The production index for sawmills and wood preservation industries rose marginally by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2024. After falling for the previous two quarters, this was the first rise in real output since the third quarter of 2023. The index was 2.2% lower than one year ago, the largest year-over-year decline since falling 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021. …The Census Bureau’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization is another source of interest. …The sawmill and wood preservation industry full utilization rates jumped significantly over the quarter, up from 61.9% to 70.7%. Given this rise, it is surprising that production did not also increase significantly. Average plant hours per week in operation did rise for these firms, up from 47.9 hours in the first quarter to 57.7 hours in the second quarter. …Employment at sawmill and wood preservation firms rose for the first time in six quarters, up to approximately 89,400 employees in the second quarter.

The Fed cut the short-term federal funds rate by an additional 25 basis points at the conclusion of its November meeting, reducing the top target rate to 4.75%. However, while the Fed noted it is making progress to its 2% inflation target, it did not provide post-election guidance on the pace and ultimate path for future interest rate cuts. …The policy risks for the central bank had recently been between inflation (decreasing risks) and concerns regarding the health of the labor market (risks rising). However, the 2024 election result changes this outlook somewhat. In particular, the election increases the probability of additional economic growth, a tighter labor market, larger government deficits, and higher tariffs. All of these factors can be inflationary, even if they yield other macroeconomic benefits. …Consequently, the Fed will need to recalibrate its economic and policy outlook.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey, decreased 13.9% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis due to higher mortgage rates. This decline was reflected in both the Purchase and Refinance Indices, which fell by 4.4% and 23%, respectively. However, compared to October 2023, the Market Composite Index is up by 39%, with the Purchase Index seeing a slight 1.9% increase and the Refinance Index higher by 149.9%. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reversed its downward trajectory with an increase of 36 basis points (bps), following volatility in the ten-year Treasury yield. This brought the rate back to around the same level as it was in August at 6.53%. However, compared to its peak last October, the current rate is 125 bps lower.

Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing showed mixed results year-over-year in the third quarter of 2024, according to results from the Multifamily Market Survey by the NAHB.  The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) had a reading of 40, an increase of two points year-over-year, while the Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 75, down seven points year-over-year. While demand for rental apartments remains strong enough to support relatively high occupancy rates in existing projects, multifamily builders and developers continue to face many significant obstacles on new projects such as higher construction costs, the cost and access to financing, and the availability of land and regulations.  NAHB forecasts multifamily construction to remain weak for another year before beginning to move back to long-term trends toward the end of 2025.