Following the US government’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements on April 2, 2025, the bond market experienced significant turmoil. …If high bond yields persist, timberland may find itself in a vexed position—caught between its traditional role as a real biological asset and inflation hedge, and its declining relative appeal compared to more liquid bonds offering higher returns. To remain competitive in this environment, timberland may face pressure to support higher discount rates, which could weigh on valuations. Additionally, tariff escalations and geopolitical tensions could disrupt wood product exports, further increasing risk. …The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that the US tariffs could reverse global goods trade growth in 2025, reducing it from a projected 2.7% increase to a 0.2% decline. In a worst-case scenario, global trade could decline by 1.5%, weakening GDP growth to just 1.7%. …The unpredictability of current trade policy shifts is making reliable forecasting difficult.
VANCOUVER, BC – West Fraser Timber reported first quarter results of 2025. …First quarter sales were $1.459 billion, compared to $1.405 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. First quarter earnings were $42 million, compared to a loss of $62 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. The fourth quarter included a non-cash impairment loss of $70 million. …First quarter Adjusted EBITDA was $195 million compared to $140 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. ..The Lumber segment has experienced a slower than expected start to the year, owing to transportation and weather challenges that have influenced shipments as well as uncertainty related to demand impacts from the U.S. administration’s shifting tariff policies. …The global pulp market has begun to experience disruption with the economic impact of US tariffs creating considerable demand uncertainty in Chinese markets. As such, we anticipate NBSK pricing weakness over the near- to medium-term and a potentially significant adverse financial impact on our Pulp & Paper segment.
President Trump is reshaping America’s timber industry, directing federal agencies to boost domestic lumber production while investigating whether foreign imports pose a national security threat. The US construction market consumes more than 50 billion board feet of lumber annually, with domestic production currently meeting only 70% of demand. Canada fills most of the gap, supplying roughly a quarter of America’s lumber needs. …His executive order instructs the Forest Service and Department of Interior to increase timber sales from public lands. Industry experts, however, question the feasibility of such rapid transformation. Pete Stewart, of ResourceWise, points out significant challenges: “The U.S. would have to build 70 new sawmills to make up the difference.” The geographic reality also presents obstacles. While Southern forests from Virginia to eastern Texas grow 30% more trees than local sawmills demand, forests in the Northwest are already harvesting at capacity. …Critics also question the national security rationale. 
This is the USD 64,000 question. …What we currently know is that Canadian softwood lumber carries a 14.5% tariff rate, which could expand to 34.45% later in 2025. …If we split the difference between the NAHB’s and FEA’s estimates, the average sized new home consumes 34,000 bf of lumber. As such, should the tariff increase to 34.45%. …,Should the administration levy an additional 25% “immigration and Fentanyl tariff” on Canadian lumber (which is currently exempt), the cost/home would rise to approximately USD 1,100/home. …In reality, total wood usage in home construction includes a variety of wood types including softwood lumber, oriented strand board, engineered lumber and plywood. Each category has its own pricing and supply dynamics. One additional point… It is estimated that the repair and remodel (R&R) market accounts for 35-40% of lumber demand while single-family home construction accounts for an additional 35%. …For more on the latest real estate trends, 
President Trump is forging ahead with his aggressive tariff campaign, moving on from “reciprocal” tariffs to the sector-specific tariffs he promised. To do so will involve Trump’s continued application of Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows a president to impose tariffs to protect or bolster domestic industries if there are deemed potential national security threats. What used to be a rarely employed trade provision has been a favorite instrument. The Commerce Department previously launched Section 232 probes into copper and lumber. And earlier this month, the administration started investigating pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. …Softwood lumber is a critical and preferred ingredient for homebuilding, and 30% of it is imported by the US. Homebuilders warn that tariffs on softwood lumber and other materials could further exacerbate the housing affordability crisis. Higher costs of lumber imports could also affect other products, such as furniture and even toilet paper.
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75 per cent on Wednesday, ending a run of seven consecutive cuts. The decision, for which the market had given roughly even odds, comes following weakening inflation data published yesterday, and as Canadian and global economies contend with U.S. President Donald Trump’s twisting trade war. In its decision, the Bank noted various signs of the Canadian economy slowing, and outlined two possible scenarios that underline the uncertainty of the trade war. “Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter,” the central bank said in a statement alongside the decision. “Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.”
A BC economist says policy proposals from the federal parties do not measure up to the scope of Canada’s housing problem. “(Much) of the policy shift is shifting in the right direction. We still have the problem that the concrete policies on the table don’t match the scale of the housing crisis,” Alex Hemingway, with BC Society for Policy Solutions, said. …Hemingway said he vetted the platforms through two questions: what are plans doing to significantly increase the supply of more affordable housing in the non-market sector; and how to address exclusionary zoning that exists in the biggest, most expensive cities. …Despite all the funding promises, it is still difficult to increase density in areas currently zoned for single-family homes. …If Canada is looking for ways to reduce its economic dependence on the US, “dealing with these fundamental issues of housing and exclusionary zoning, should be an economic priority.”
OTTAWA — Wholesale trade, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.3 per cent to $85.7 billion in February, Statistics Canada said Monday. The overall increase in sales came as just two of the seven subsectors posted gains. Statistics Canada said sales in the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector gained 7.1 per cent for the month to $19 billion. All four of the subsector’s industry groups climbed, with the computer and communications equipment and supplies industry group up 11.2 per cent, while the construction, forestry, mining, and industrial machinery, equipment and supplies industry group added 6.8 per cent.
Lumber futures fell toward $580 per thousand board feet, sliding further from a two-and-a-half-year high of $685 on March 24th, reflecting a steep decline in construction demand amid disruptive trade policies. The US decision to raise duties on Canadian softwood lumber to roughly 34% has sparked significant uncertainty and raised homebuilding costs, prompting builders to delay projects. Concurrently, Canadian production has been restricted by widespread sawmill closures, diminished timber stocks due to the mountain pine beetle, and tightening forestry policies in key regions like British Columbia, resulting in a surplus that further drives down prices. While there is a gradual shift toward lower-cost Southern Yellow Pine from the US South, logistical and technical hurdles limit its ability to fully offset the reduced Canadian supply. Market participants are adjusting to lower demand expectations amid ongoing trade tensions and a slowing construction sector.
Homebuilder stocks plunged Monday following reports that the US is preparing to sharply increase tariffs on Canadian lumber, independent of President Donald Trump’s new “reciprocal” tariffs. …After reports of the new lumber duties emerged over the weekend, however, shares of homebuilders plunged swiftly Monday. …”Tariffs are the clear culprit for the stock market pullback and fears of recession,” says Realtor.com® Senior Economist Joel Berner. “Recession risk is especially poignant for builders.” …The latest round of tariffs, however, will likely increase materials costs for all homebuilders, to some extent, with a recent survey of builders finding that they expect an average cost increase of $9,200 per home as a result of tariffs. …Over the weekend, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi raised his outlook for the odds of a recession this year to 60%, up from just 15% a few months ago.
Dear Deputy Assistant Secretary Longnecker: The U.S. Chamber strongly opposes the establishment of tariffs or quantitative restrictions on imports of timber, lumber, and their derivative products such as paper, cardboard, and pulp. Imports of these goods do not represent a national security risk, as addressed below. Imposing tariffs on these goods would raise costs for U.S. businesses and home construction, undermine the export success enjoyed by the U.S. paper industry, and reduce incomes in many U.S. communities… It is unreasonable to suggest that imports of these goods represent a national security risk, in part because the chief source of imports in this sector is Canada, a NATO ally and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) partner… It is not reasonable to claim that imports of these goods from a close ally somehow pose a threat to U.S. national security.
Flatbed trucking rates have surged over the past month as steel and lumber shippers hurry to stockpile inventory amid tariff whiplash threatening to roil their supply chains, experts say. A six-week increase in rates has led to the highest flatbed pricing to start a year since 2017, according to DAT, as freight repositioning combines with a typical seasonal pickup in construction and other industries. “Demand usually picks up in March and April as planti ng, building, construction, machinery imports, and nursery seasons gear up,” said DAT Principal Analyst Dean Croke. “…Last week, the average flatbed spot rate went up 4 cents to $2.13 per mile compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the load-to-truck ratio for flatbed went up to 46.92 from 41.12 loads per truck.Shippers have pulled forward cargo imports such as machinery, lumber, metals and oversized flatbed freight to mitigate tariff uncertainty. 
US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat could motivate more Canadian lumber producers to shift to the US southern border while accelerating efforts to find new markets, industry experts said. The levies are the latest in a nearly four-decade dispute between the neighbors over softwood lumber, used in construction, furniture and paper production. Levies on Canadian lumber could hit 40% if current duties of 14.54%, and Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs are added. …”Disparity in log costs and availability are the major drivers here, but Canadian investment in the region has certainly been partially motivated to moving operations where they avoid the impact of duties,” said Dustin Jalbert at FastMarkets. …”In 2004, there were only two sawmills owned by a Canadian manufacturer. Today, we have more than 50,” said Kyle Little, at Sherwood Lumber.” Canadian companies now produce more than a third of the volume of the largest producing region in the US – the US South.”
Tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on Vancouver’s housing market in March, deepening the slowdown in activity. Escalating US trade actions have fuelled fears of a recession, job losses and equity market volatility, pushing many potential buyers to the sidelines. The latest data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley real estate boards showed a deepening of the sales pullback in March. MLS sales fell 17.6% year over year. …The severe drop in home sales aligns with declining business confidence, which has plunged to record lows—a pretty good bet that weak confidence is playing out in housing. With sales held back, inventory has ballooned. Active listings were up 43% year over year and marching higher. …Meanwhile, after recording a surplus in merchandise trade balance for two consecutive months, Canada’s trade balance shifted to a deficit in February as exports retreated significantly following a frontloading of US imports.
The ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and Canada is impacting BC’s construction sector in ways that could bring short-term gain and long-term pain. At first, there could be an oversupply of lumber if Canadian softwood is taken out of the U.S. equation, resulting in lower costs for B.C. builders and developers, said Padraic Kelly, Vancouver-based director with BTY Group. But costs would later rise significantly, he said. “The medium- and long-term pain would be that if the American market is choked out, mills would close, supply would be constrained and costs would ultimately go up,” Kelly said. The total levy on Canadian softwood lumber going into the U.S. could total between 45% and 55%, taking into account anti-dumping measures introduced by the Biden administration and scheduled to increase this August. Other big-ticket impacts to B.C. construction could be the mechanical and electrical divisions within construction budgets, he said.
The European pulp and paper industry is struggling to assess the possible impact of tariffs. …Europe has a marginally negative trade balance with the US for pulp and paper. In 2024, it imported 2.6 million tonnes of P&P from the US. In the same year, it exported 2.3 million tonnes of P&P to the country. The largest trade deficits appear to be around pulp (-975,000 tonnes) and containerboard (-310,000 tonnes, mostly kraftliner). On the other hand, Europe has a surplus in graphic paper and cartonboard sales. …“The only certainty we have is that there will be negative consequences for businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. Trade wars are always detrimental for consumers, but we are a ‘made in Europe’ industry, with local capacities to meet the European demand,” he added. …Most market participants believe the stuttering trade war initiated by Trump will further hurt the already stagnating European economy.
While the current tariff war is justifiably on the minds of many Americans, another type of import tax may be coming later this summer that could have a big impact on new home construction. …The US is preparing to raise duties on Canadian softwood lumber from 14.5% to 34.45%. …A final review of the levies will be published in August or September, with the rate increase taking effect then, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The NAHB has previously estimated that Trump’s tariffs could increase the cost of building a new home by $9,200. ….The proposal to more than double the tax would be a blow to Canadians, but it would also mean “driving up housing costs for Americans,” BC Premier David Eby said. …Some have praised the proposal, suggesting that it will give domestic lumber companies an opportunity to increase production, even if that means higher costs.
US trade wars could have major implications for an already tenuous housing market….A price hike on building materials will likely make building affordable housing feasible, an approach that many real estate experts believe is crucial to resolving the housing market gridlock. The housing sector comprises over 15% of the US GDP and will be heavily impacted by tariffs on building materials such as lumber and steel. And 70% of imported lumber comes from Canada. The NAHB noted that the tariffs are “not only expected to raise the cost of building materials, which are up 34% since December 2020, far higher than the rate of inflation, but also wreak havoc on the building material supply chain. In turn, this will put even more upward price pressure on building materials.” …Uncertainty stemming from the newly unveiled tariffs has eroded consumer and investor confidence, which has, in turn, diminished homebuyer optimism.
US stocks opened lower Monday as markets around the world tumbled over concerns about how President Trump’s sweeping tariffs might upend the global economy and stymie US economic growth. Markets opened in bear market territory – a decline of 20% from a recent peak – after a historic rout in Asia and massive losses in Europe. The Dow fell 1,200 points, or 3.2%. The broader S&P 500 was 3.4% lower and opened in bear territory. The Nasdaq Composite slid 3.96%. The S&P 500 hit a record high less than seven weeks ago, on February 19. If the index closes in bear market territory, that would be the second-fastest peak-to-bear market shift in history. Wall Street’s fear gauge has surged to levels not seen since the Covid-19 pandemic as investors fret over the market’s next move. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index has slumped to its lowest levels this year.
Wall Street’s main indexes reversed course and moved sharply higher after White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said in an interview that President Donald Trump was considering a 90-day tariff pause on all countries expect China. At 10:20 a.m. the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 333.50 points, or 0.87%, to 38,614.49, the S&P 500 gained 79.99 points, or 1.69%, to 5,154.07 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 362.69 points, or 2.33%, to 15,950.47.
The stock market took another pounding Friday after China retaliated with new tariffs on U.S. goods, raising fears a trade war will tip the globe into a recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 1,130 points, or 2.8%. This follows a 1,679.39 point decline on Thursday. The S&P 500 slid 3.2% after the benchmark shed 4.84% on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite shed 3.5% as many tech companies have exposure to China. …“The Trump administration may be playing a game of chicken with trading partners, but market participants aren’t willing to wait around for the results,” said Michael Arone, at State Street Global Advisors. “Investors are selling first and asking questions later.” Bank stocks tumbled in the premarket as worries of a U.S. economic slowdown grew. …The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 4% Friday as investors flooded into bonds for safety. JPMorgan late Thursday raised the odds of a recession this year to 60% from 40%.
Manufactured homes play a measurable role in the U.S. housing market by providing an affordable supply option for millions of households. According to the American Housing Survey, there are 7.2 million occupied manufactured homes in the U.S., representing 5.4% of total occupied housing and a source of affordable housing, in particular, for rural and lower income households. Often thought of as synonymous to “mobile homes” or “trailers”, manufactured homes are a specific type of factory-built housing that adheres to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s Manufactured Home Construction and Safety Standards code. …The East South Central division (Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee) have the highest concentration of manufactured homes, representing 9.3% of total occupied housing. The Mountain region follows with 8.5%, while the South Atlantic region holds 7.7%.
Contractors are bracing for a new wave of tariffs set to take effect April 2, this time on certain material imported from Canada and Mexico — such as steel, aluminum and lumber. Though reports indicate the Trump administration could roll back the ultimate scope of this action, contractors say just the threat of tariffs can have an immediate impact on material costs. That’s why that looming deadline on Canadian and Mexican imports has already sparked concern across the construction industry, particularly around reinforcing and structural steel, curtainwall systems and Canadian lumber, said Steve Stouthamer, executive VP Skanska USA Building. Stouthamer talks about the materials most at risk, tariffs’ impact on budgets and negotiations and steps contractors can take to minimize financial exposure. …The Trump administration has indicated Canadian lumber will be included in the reciprocal tariffs. Lumber has already seen a significant increase, 10% to 15% in cost, in anticipation of this tariff.
There is a 20% tariff on products from China and 25% on many goods from Canada and Mexico. What is sure is that they will increase the cost of DIY projects and home renovations, says Pelin Pekgun, at Wake Forest University School of Business. …“While prices will not rise immediately, higher material costs, potential shortages and supply delays could result in tighter renovation budgets in the coming months.” …One of the most significant products the tariffs will impact is lumber. More than 25% of cement and concrete are imported from Canada and Mexico, so the cost of pouring foundations and flatwork, such as driveways and walkways, will likely increase. …Many other building materials will likely get more expensive, including flooring, cabinets, countertops and lighting. Though not a direct consequence of tariffs, labor costs are also a growing concern in the construction industry, says roofer Michael Green.
February 2025 Southern Pine lumber exports (treated and untreated) were up 4.7% to 40.8 Mbf over January but were down 15% over February 2024, according to February 2025 data from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services’ Global Agricultural Trade System. When looking at the report by dollar value, Southern Pine exports are down 4% compared to the first two months of 2024 at $32 million. Mexico led the way at $8.4 million, followed by the Dominican Republic at $6.7 million, and Canada at $3.3 million. The total global value in February, however, hit a five-month high of $16.5 million. Treated lumber exports, meanwhile, were down 8% to $18.3 million through the first two months of 2025 compared to a year ago led by Jamaica at $3 million, the Leeward-Windward Islands at $2.6 million, and the Netherlands Antilles with $2 million.
NEW YORK — Associated General Contractors of New York State CEO Mike Elmendorf says that under the tariffs proposed by President Trump, the cost for any kind of construction could further skyrocket. “When tariffs go on a material that is sourced from outside the United States, a funny thing happens,” Elmendorf said. “In many cases, domestic producers or suppliers of that material raise their price too because they can. Not as much as the tariff, but it sort of, it pushes everything up.” …Canadian lumber is one of the most critical imports needed for U.S. construction. “Especially the builders up in Western New York are concerned it’s going to affect them quicker and harder than the rest of the state,” said New York State Builders Association Executive Director Mike Fazio. Elmendorf said what might be an even bigger issue than the tariffs themselves is the uncertainty surrounding them.” 
Marie Fallon, the general manager of AR Chambers Supply in Lawrenceville, is nervous about the future of her business. The threat of tariffs has prices fluctuating and she’s worried her supply sources are at risk. …As President Donald Trump’s international trade war rages on, Pennsylvania homebuilding and construction businesses are weathering the dizzying pace of cost increases and then abrupt pauses in tariffs as they try to ensure that long-term projects are completed. Pennsylvania is highly dependent on foreign countries for construction materials, with 63% of the state’s wood imports, 66% of its iron and steel, and 68% of its aluminum coming from Canada and Brazil. …Despite the whiplash changes, some in the industry see the new tariffs as good for the long-term outlook. Hodgkiss Lumber owner Jon Hodgkiss sees Trump’s tariffs as simply a temporary negotiating tactic that will give the US better trade deals.
In a move that merges sustainable finance with industrial-scale environmental stewardship, Sydney-based natural capital investment manager New Forests has partnered with Japan’s Oji Holdings Corporation, one of the world’s largest pulp and paper producers, to establish the Future Forest Innovations Fund. With an initial commitment of US$300 million ( US$297 million from Oji and US$3 million from New Forests ), the fund aims to acquire and manage 70,000 hectares of plantation forests across Southeast Asia, North and Latin America, and Africa… The partnership signals an alignment between traditional manufacturing and ecological impact investing. Oji Holdings, which already manages 635,000 hectares of plantation forests worldwide, is leveraging this initiative to meet its 2030 net sequestration goal of 1.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year, integrating climate action into its global forest footprint.
BEIJING — UBS analysts became the latest to raise expectations that China’s struggling real estate market is close to stabilizing. “After four or five years of a downward cycle, we have begun to see some relatively positive signals,” John Lam at UBS Investment Bank. …“Of course these signals aren’t nationwide, and may be local,” Lam said. One indicator is improving sales in China’s largest cities. Existing home sales in five major Chinese cities have climbed by more than 30% from a year ago on a weekly basis as of Wednesday. The category is typically called “secondary home sales” in China, in contrast to the primary market, which has typically consisted of newly built apartment homes. UBS now predicts China’s home prices can stabilize in early 2026, earlier than the mid-2026 timeframe previously forecast. They expect secondary transactions could reach half of the total by 2026.
The Arizona House of Representatives recently passed out of the House, a wildfire insurance risk modeling bill, designed to reduce homeowner insurance cancellations, and help residents in wildfire prone regions to obtain homeowners’ insurance. Sponsored by District 7 Representative Dave Marshal, the bill would reduce the insurance companies practice of “blanket” cancellations of homeowner insurance. The key element of the legislation would cause the insurance companies to apply a wildfire risk modeling assessment on “individual” properties rather than the “blanket” assessments practice of entire neighborhoods… Property owners who want a cozy home in a small canyon surrounded by dense brush and low-level trees are at great risk of losing insurance coverage and losing their home to fire.