Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

Industrial outlook darkens ahead of tariffs

By Michael Rudolph
FreightWaves
March 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

In the run-up to Tuesday’s promised barrage of tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China, the U.S. industrial sector is not looking so hot — a dark omen for domestic freight demand. For one, construction spending took an unexpected hit in January, down 0.2% from December against consensus expectations of stability. Outlays for private residential projects fell 0.4%, despite a 0.6% monthly rise in single-family spending. …The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI saw its second straight month of expansion in February, following 26 consecutive months of contraction. …Comments from various sectors all reveal an intense concern over the upcoming tariffs. One anonymous manufacturer of transportation equipment noted that “customers are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty regarding tariffs.” …These tariff-induced fears have darkened businesses’ outlook for the year ahead, a quick reversal from January’s jubilance.

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Here’s how tariffs will hit the U.S. housing market

By Diana Olick
CNBC Real Estate
March 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

From lumber to drywall to appliances to finishings, much of what goes into a U.S. home comes from outside American borders. The cost of those products is about to go up, as President Donald Trump’s administration imposes tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. …The new tariffs could increase builder costs anywhere from $7,500 to $10,000 per home, said Rob Dietz, chief economist at the NAHB, citing estimates from U.S. homebuilders. The greatest impact to homebuilders will be from lumber cost increases, which are expected to total about $4,900 per home on average, according to Leading Builders of America, the trade group representing most of the nation’s publicly traded homebuilders. …Lumber futures are up 5% in the past week and were rising steadily Tuesday. …Beyond lumber, the homebuilding industry is subject to rising costs across the sector. China is the leader in household appliances. And, the majority of drywall is imported from other countries.

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Trump’s tariffs roil U.S. markets. And that’s the reaction that matters

By Alexander Panetta
CBC News
March 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Canada can huff, and puff, but if anything’s going to blow down Trump’s house of tariffs it’s going to be the reaction within the US. And there are signs of pushback. The stock market is turning, economic sentiment is nosediving, the U.S. president’s approval is receding, and American lawyers are preparing lawsuits. Those factors will likely pack more punch in Washington than the $155 billion in counter-tariffs threatened by Canada. …Markets replied by quickly wiping out their entire gains for 2025, with the S&P 500 losing 1.76% on the day, triggering hundreds of billions in losses. …But that modest single-day decline is by no means the only grey cloud on the economic horizon. US consumer confidence has had its sharpest monthly drop since the pandemic. …So now we watch the Americans investors and the courts. For all the talk about how Canada might fight tariffs, the decisive battle is south of the border.

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Lumber Prices Hit 2022 High as Trump Investigates Foreign Imports

By Ilena Peng
Bloomberg News
March 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures rose to the highest in more than two and a half years after President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into shipments of the commodity into the U.S. Trump on March 1 asked the Commerce Department to investigate the national security harm posed by lumber imports. Those shipments largely come from Canada, which is already facing the threat of 25% tariffs on its goods. The most-active contract in Chicago rose as much as 3.5% to the highest since August 2022. Shares of some Canadian lumber companies slumped on March 3, with Interfor Corp. dropping as much as 9.9%, the most since June 2022. Canfor Corp. fell as much as 3.5%.

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Doman Building Materials reports Q4, 2024 net earnings of $8.3 million

By Doman Building Materials Group Ltd.
The Gazette
February 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

VANCOUVER — Doman Building Materials Group announced today its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results for the period ended December 31, 2024. …For the three-month period ended December 31, 2024, revenues amounted to $707.8 million, compared to $527.4 million in the same period in 2023. …Net earnings were $8.3 million versus $10.5 million in the comparative period of 2023. …For the year ended December 31, 2024, consolidated revenues increased to $2.7 billion, compared to $2.5 billion in 2023, largely due to the impact of the results of the 2024 acquisitions, which were also offset with the slowing in the construction materials market. Net earnings for the full year were $54.2 million versus $75.8 million in the comparative period of 2023.

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Tariff threat pushes up lumber prices despite average demand

By Joe Pruski
RISI Fastmarkets
March 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The perpetually moving target of tariffs on Canadian lumber shipments to the US frustrated traders and had broad impacts on sales in many species. Despite middling demand, the threat of tariffs combined with relatively tight supplies left many prices higher for the week. The delay in announcement of preliminary AD rates by the Commerce Department injected further uncertainty. Despite inconsistent trading throughout February, the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price recorded its fourth straight increase and hit $461. That is its highest level since July 2023. Western S-P-F sales were steady but uneventful. Canadian mills weighed their responses to potential tariffs with plans ranging from adders on quoted levels to managing production and focusing sales to non-US destinations. Lumber futures were extremely volatile, swinging aggressively to every news report. The Southern Pine market was in disarray as traders processed a constant flow of mixed signals.

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North American construction outlook: US Trump boost comes at a cost for Canada and Mexico

By James Knightley and Coco Zhang
ING Think
February 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

From a supply perspective, the construction sector is vulnerable to President Trump’s immigration controls. …In an environment of falling numbers of American-born workers, this may mean labour supply is constrained in some key sectors including construction, agriculture and leisure & hospitality, which have relatively large immigrant workforces. …As such there is the threat of a perfect storm for US home builders – rising raw material costs, potential worker shortages boosting pay rates with demand constrained by high mortgage rates. In this environment, we see housing starts, which hit a 15-year high of 1.6m in 2021 before falling to 1.55m in 2022, 1.42m in 2023 and 1.36m in 2024 dropping to 1.275m in 2025 and staying at a similar level in 2026 before rising to 1.35m in 2027. …Canada is vulnerable to a painful trade war with the US. …While not introduced yet, the uncertainty that this generates will mean non-residential projects are put on hold. 

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Calculating The Impact Of Lumber Tariffs On New Homes

By Den Shewman
MortgagePoint
February 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Zoltan van Heyningen

The rumor mill has it that the cost of lumber is driving up housing affordability. …A recent study by the U.S. Lumber Coalition found that since 2016, U.S. lumber mills have added eight billion board feet of production capacity and have produced 30 billion additional board feet of softwood lumber. …In addition, the US supplies up to 95% of its own lumber needs today, due to increased U.S. capacity through the enforcement of the U.S. trade laws. Lumber makes up only 1.7% of the price of a new home. Duties on Canadian lumber make up just 0.04% of the price of a new home. That [means]: lumber cost has minimal impact on housing affordability. …“Since Canada relies almost exclusively on the U.S. market to unload its excess lumber production at any cost… this new U.S. self-reliance for its softwood lumber needs is causing panic within the Canadian lumber export industry,” stated Zoltan van Heyningen.

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Prices and Trends in the U.S. Framing Lumber Market

The National Association of Home Builders
February 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The week-to-week framing lumber composite price increased 1.6% on Feb. 21, 2025, rising to $453 per 1,000 board feet. Lumber prices are now 15.6% higher than they were one year ago. …Softwood lumber prices have been especially volatile in recent years largely because of increased demand, rising tariffs, supply-chain bottlenecks and insufficient domestic production. …Surveys conducted by Home Innovation Research Labs show that the average new single-family home uses more than 2,200 square feet of softwood plywood, and more than 6,800 of OSB, in addition to roughly 15,000 board feet of framing lumber. Softwood lumber is also an input into certain manufactured products used in residential construction — especially cabinets, windows, doors and trusses. …As explained in NAHB’s study on regulatory costs, the final home price will increase by nearly 15% above the builder’s cost. The bottom line is that changes in softwood lumber prices directly impact the price of a new home. 

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How Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada will sweep across the U.S., state by state

By Lori Ann LaRocco
CNBC
February 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, International

If the Trump administration follows through, the impact on economies across the U.S. will be extensive, and it will vary greatly from state to state. …CNBC looked at the exposure of all 50 states on a country-by-country basis. …The 10 states that have the highest percentage of imports from Canada are: Montana (92%), Maine (69.4%), Vermont (68%), North Dakota (64%), Wyoming (55%), Oklahoma (51%), West Virginia (44%), South Dakota (41%), Minnesota (38%), and Colorado (31%). Energy was the top-dollar import from Canada for all states. The amount of oil imported from Canada is staggering. For example, the value of the oil that Montana imports from Canada — $4.9 billion — is more than 10 times the value of the state’s next biggest import. U.S. states facing exports retaliatory risk. …Looking at the top 10 states that export to Canada, North Dakota topped the list (82%), followed by Maine (49%), Montana (46%), South Dakota (44%), Michigan (43%), Ohio (39%), West Virginia (38%), Idaho (37%), Missouri (37%), and Vermont (34%).

In related coverage: Voters might like tariffs, but not on Canada and Mexico, poll finds

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Lumber Surges on Tariff Concerns and Supply Constraints

Trading Economics
February 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures surpassed $630 per thousand board feet in February, the highest since October 2022, amid tariff concerns and tightening supply. U.S. President Trump reaffirmed Monday that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports remain “on time and on schedule,” despite both nations’ efforts to bolster border security and curb fentanyl flows ahead of the March 4th deadline. The National Association of Home Builders warned that higher tariffs on lumber and gypsum could push prices up 40%, worsening affordability and slowing the housing market’s recovery. Meanwhile, U.S. building permits edged up 0.1%, signaling stability, while housing starts plunged 9.8%, pointing to near-term weakness. 

In related news: Barchart’s Andrew Hecht thinks Lumber Prices Can Break Higher

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How tariff threats are already making Canada’s housing crisis worse

CBC News – The National
February 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

A U.S.-Canada trade war would undoubtedly drive up the cost of building supplies, but as CBC’s Lauren Bird explains, even just the threat of tariffs is already stalling some construction projects as Canada tries to fight its way out of a housing crisis.

Read the print article from CBC News here: The threat of a tariff war is already driving up housing costs

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Mercer International reports Q4, 2024 net income of $16.7 million

By Mercer International Inc.
GlobeNewswire
February 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, International

NEW YORK — Mercer International reported fourth quarter 2024 net income of $16.7 million compared to a net loss of $87.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and a net loss of $17.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. Q4 revenues were $488 million, down from $502 million in Q3, 2024 but up from $470 million in Q4, 2023. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, CEO, stated: “In the fourth quarter of 2024, softwood pulp prices remained strong, decreasing slightly from recent record prices.” …Hardwood pulp prices in China and North America decreased in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the market absorbed capacity increases from earlier in the year. …Lumber sales realizations increased, driven by modestly higher prices in the U.S. market, while in Europe, prices remained stable. 

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BC economies ‘less exposed’ to potential US tariffs

By Courtney Dickson
CBC News
February 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

BC cities, in general, would be among the least vulnerable in Canada if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on tariff threats, according to new data from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. That isn’t to say that British Columbia wouldn’t suffer: the chamber’s chief economist, Stephen Tapp, says those tariffs would be recessionary for the whole country. …The chamber’s Business Data Lab looked at Statistics Canada information from 41 cities. …Kamloops ranked 40th out of 41 cities, would be the second-most resilient in the event the U.S. does impose tariffs on Canadian goods, according to the chamber’s calculations. New report says Sudbury would be most resilient city in Canada in the face of U.S. tariffs. …Nanaimo is not far behind Kamloops. Saint John tops list of Canadian cities with most to lose in U.S. tariff war. Calgary is Canada’s second most vulnerable city.

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Tariff impact on forest products will vary and be wide ranging

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
February 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

If Canada is hit with 25% tariffs… the trade impacts for the forest products sector will be wide ranging. …Lumber is the most talked about commodity with respect to tariffs, largely due to the size of the market but also the fact that tariffs would be in addition to duties which are already being paid and are set to rise come August. The US can’t supply its own lumber demand and will have to continue to import Canadian lumber. Prices will rise. …The US is even more reliant on OSB from Canada. …In softwood, ~70% of demand is met by imports and in hardwood the proportion is even higher, at 89%. Canada is the largest softwood pulp supplier to the US, representing 74% of imports; a 25% tariff on Canadian goods would inevitably result in higher costs for US customers that produce paper, packaging and tissue. There are no easy near-term substitution options.

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Lumber Futures Surge Amid Supply and Tariff Woes

Markets.com
February 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures have recently surged past $610 per thousand board feet, reaching a near three-month high as market conditions tighten. A combination of mill closures, reduced North American production capacity, and tariff concerns has led to increasing volatility in the lumber market. Investors and traders are closely watching these developments, as the outlook for lumber futures remains uncertain amid ongoing supply and trade disruptions. …One of the primary drivers behind the latest rally in lumber futures is the ongoing reduction in North American production capacity. …Adding to the supply concerns is the looming increase in U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber. For traders, this means increased volatility in lumber futures as market participants react to policy changes. Higher tariffs could discourage Canadian exports, forcing buyers to seek alternative sources or absorb the additional costs, further driving up lumber futures prices.

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B.C. Finance Minister Brenda Bailey on track to deliver budget as Trump slaps tariffs

By Chuck Chiang and Marcy Nicholson
Canadian Press in Victoria Times Colonist
March 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

VICTORIA — One day before delivering her first budget, British Columbia’s finance minister said she knows that everyone is wondering how it can be done in the face of unprecedented tariffs from the United States. It is not time to make “deep cuts,” Brenda Bailey said, but a time to plan for uncertainty and ensure programs and services are protected. Experts and economists say the impact from U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods will make the budget one of most consequential for the province in recent memory. …Premier David Eby has called the U.S. tariff threat a “declaration of economic war,” and strongly denounced the duties. …The province cancelled a promised $1,000 grocery rebate and froze some public-sector hiring as it braces for a trade war against what Eby called an “outsized and significantly more powerful foe.” …Jock Finlayson, Independent Contractors and Businesses Association, said Bailey’s task is an unenviable one, given the deficit.

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B.C. construction industry warns of increased costs as Trump talks tariffs against lumber

CBC News
February 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

The looming trade war with the United States has sparked uncertainty in B.C.’s housing market, with developers worried that the already sky-high cost of new construction is about to be driven up even further. Carla Guerrera, CEO of Purpose Driven Developments, said the threatened U.S. tariffs are making it difficult to anticipate prices for things like appliances and plumbing fixtures, making it impossible for builders to project final costs and keep projects on track. “Right now, we and our partners are frantically trying to look at where we can source Canadian products and divert away from some of the U.S. suppliers,” she said. There are tens of thousands of active housing projects at various stages of development in B.C., all now grappling with the uncertainty, not to mention the potential viability of projects planned for the future.

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California Building Industry Association says looming tariffs on BC lumber “ill-timed”

By Brendan Pawliw
By Prince George Now
February 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West, United States

California home builders say they have very little choice but to continue buying Canadian softwood lumber from places like British Columbia, even if US President Donald Trump issues a 25% penalty on imports next month. The state is in the midst of its rebuilding efforts from the Pacific Palisades wildfires that ravaged the Los Angeles area. …Dan Dunmoyer, who is the president of the California Building Industry Association said the rebuild will become a lot more costly. …“The price of lumber is already starting to go up some even without the tariffs in place out of uncertainty, which again is a reason not to move quickly on tariffs. …“We are very desirous to rebuild as quickly as possible and at the lowest cost possible. The timing of tariffs or additional costs to softwood lumber coming from Canada is very ill-timed.”

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B.C. lumber producers record modest improvements in Q4 2024

By Nelson Bennett
Business in Vancouver
February 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

B.C. lumber producers experienced a bit of a lift in the fourth quarter in an otherwise awful year marked by low lumber prices, and are bracing for trade volatility in the year to come. Western Forest Products Inc. , West Fraser Timber Co. and Interfor Corp. released fourth quarter and annual financials this week that show somewhat improved sales numbers in the fourth quarter of 2024, but overall net losses for the full year. …The net loss for Western Forest Products in 2024 was $34.5 million, compared to $70 million in 2023. The net loss for the most recent fourth quarter was $1.2 million, compared to a net loss of $14.3 million in Q4 2023…….West Fraser Timber Co.  reported a loss of US$62 million on US$1.4 billion in sales in the fourth quarter, and a loss of US$5 million on US$6.2 billion in sales for the full year of 2024.

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Stella-Jones reports Q4, 2024 net income of $52 million

By Stella-Jones Inc.
GlobeNewswire
February 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

MONTREAL — Stella-Jones announced financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024. Sales for the fourth quarter of 2024 amounted to $730 million, up 6% from sales of $688 million for the same period in 2023. …Net income for the period amounted to $52 million compared with $56 million in the corresponding period of 2023. …Sales for the year ended December 31, 2024 reached $3,469 million, up 5%, versus sales of $3,319 million in 2023. Net income in 2024 was $319 million, compared to net income of $326 million in 2023. Despite the lower net income, earnings per share in 2024 was higher at $5.66 versus $5.62 in 2023 due to the continued repurchase of shares. …Eric Vachon, CEO of Stella-Jones, “We achieved solid results in our infrastructure product categories, even in the face of softer market demand. We acquired new customers, maintained our expanded EBITDA margin of over 18%, and delivered strong operating cashflows.”

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Cascades reports Q4, 2024 net loss of $13 million

By Cascades Inc.
Cision Newswire
February 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

KINGSEY FALLS, Quebec — Cascades reported its unaudited financial results for the three-month period and fiscal year ended December 31, 2024. Q4 2024 Highlights include: Sales of $1,211 million (compared with $1,201 million in Q3 2024 and $1,138 million in Q4 2023); net loss of $13 million (compared to earnings of $1 million in Q3, 2023 and net loss of $57 million in Q4, 202). …On an adjusted basis, the Corporation posted net earnings of $25 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to net earnings of $5 million in the same period of 2023. On an annual basis, Cascades reported full year 2024 sales of $4,701 million (compared with $4,638 million in 2023), Operating income of $95 million (compared with $40 million in 2023); Net loss per common share of ($0.31) (compared with ($0.76) in 2023).

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Goodfellow reports Q4, 2024 net earnings of $2.4 million

By Goodfellow Inc.
Globe Newswire
February 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

DELSON, Quebec — Goodfellow announced its financial results. For the fourth quarter ended November 30, 2024, the Company reported net earnings of $2.4 million or $0.29 per share compared to net earnings of $2.1 million or $0.25 per share a year ago. Consolidated sales for the three months ended November 30, 2024 were $124.2 million compared to $125.4 million last year. For the fiscal year ended November 30, 2024, the Company reported net earnings of $13.4 million or $1.58 per share compared to net earnings of $14.7 million or $1.72 per share a year ago. Consolidated sales for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2024 were $509.5 million compared to $512.8 million last year.

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US New Home Sales Slow in January 2025

By Jing Fu
NAHB – Eye on Housing
February 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

New home sales decreased in January to a three-month low, as housing affordability continues to sideline potential home buyers. Mortgage rates are expected to remain above 6% throughout 2025, coupled with elevated home prices, creating a significant affordability challenge for both first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in January decreased 10.5% to a 657,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from an upwardly revised December number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in January is down 1.1% compared to a year earlier. …New single-family home inventory in January continued to rise to a level of 495,000, up 7.4% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 9 months’ supply at the current building pace.

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Home Depot exec says Americans may soon embrace sky-high mortgage rates as ‘the new normal’ and invest in housing

By Sydney Lake
Fortune Magazine
February 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Home Depot’s CFO said people are “moving on” from today’s high mortgage rates and have started investing more in their homes. The home improvement company reported strong fourth-quarter results, although CEO Ted Decker said consumers are still reluctant to make larger investments like a kitchen remodel. Experts say people may start to view today’s mortgage rates as normal, especially when compared to historic rates. …“Housing is still frozen by mortgage rates,” Richard McPhail, said. Yet McPhail said Home Depot, which reported strong Q4 results Tuesday, has seen sales growth in nearly 80% of its U.S. geographic regions. …For Q4, 2024, Home Depot saw a 14.1% year-over-year increase in sales, which “exceeded our expectations,” Ted Decker CEO, said. …“We saw greater engagement in home improvement spend, despite ongoing pressure on large remodeling projects,” Decker said

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US New and Existing Home Price Gap Shrinking

By Onnah Dereski
The NAHB Eye on Housing
February 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The traditional price gap between new and existing homes was nearly nonexistent at the end of 2024. The median price for a new single-family home sold in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $419,200, a mere $9,100 above the existing home sales price of $410,100, according to U.S. Census Bureau. Typically, new homes carry a price premium over existing homes. However, for the first time in the quarterly data since 1989, the median existing home price exceeded the new home price in the second quarter of 2024, and again in the third quarter of 2024. …Meanwhile, the median price for existing single-family homes increased 4.80% from one year ago. Existing home prices have continued to experience year-over-year increases for six consecutive quarters.

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Gains for US Custom Home Building

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
February 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates gains for custom home builders after a period slight softening of market share. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building. There were 47,000 total custom building starts during the fourth quarter of 2024. This marks a 7% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. In 2024 as a whole, custom housing starts totaled 181,000 homes, just below a 2% increase compared to the prior four quarter total (178,000 in 2023). Currently, the market share of custom home building is approximately 18% of total single-family starts. This is down from a prior cycle peak of 31.5% set during the second quarter of 2009 and the 21% local peak rate at the beginning of 2023, after which spec home building gained market share.

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US Consumer Sentiment Extends Its Decline In February

By Joanne Hsu
The University of Michigan
February 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Consumer sentiment extended its early month decline, sliding nearly 10% from January. The decrease was unanimous across groups by age, income, and wealth. All five index components deteriorated this month, led by a 19% plunge in buying conditions for durables, in large part due to fears that tariff-induced price increases are imminent. Expectations for personal finances and the short-run economic outlook both declined almost 10% in February, while the long-run economic outlook fell back about 6% to its lowest reading since November 2023. While sentiment fell for both Democrats and Independents, it was unchanged for Republicans, reflecting continued disagreements on the consequences of new economic policies. …Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases. 

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US Housing Starts and Recessions

By Bill McBride
Calculated Risk Newsletter
February 23, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. …Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.  And policy changes will clearly have a negative impact on homebuilders.  Early in February, I expressed my “increasing concern” about the negative economic impact of “executive / fiscal policy errors”, however, I concluded by noting that I was not currently on recession watch.  Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment… to show that these three indicators generally reach peaks and troughs together. …I share BESPOKE’s concern about the potential negative impact of policy on housing starts, but I think it is way too early to start predicting a recession.

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What looming tariffs could mean for homebuilding and the economy

By Emily Mack
Chicago Agent Magazine
February 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

President Donald Trump “thrives on unpredictability”, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS. In the last 30 days alone, multiple tariffs by Trump have been announced, imposed, called off and hotly debated. Now, the tariffs are beginning to take shape. And homebuilders are wary. …The real outcry, though, regards lumber. Roughly 30% of the lumber used in the United States last year was imported – more than 85% from Canada. …the housing industry is sharing concerns. Shortly after Trump’s inauguration, the NAHB applauded his day-one executive order that urged government agencies to take action to lower housing costs and expand supply. But NAHB chairman Carl Harris said raising tariffs will have the opposite effect. …“Tariffs on lumber and other building materials increase the cost of construction and discourage new development, and consumers end up paying for the tariffs in the form of higher home prices,” Harris said in a press release.

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2025 Lumber Markets Outlook

By Paul Jannke, principal
Forest Economic Advisors in CFI
February 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

We expect housing starts to be 1.347 million units in 2024, a 5.3 per cent decline from 2023, their lowest level since 2020. With mortgage rates remaining elevated in 2025, we do not expect much relief for the year. Our forecast calls for housing starts to edge only slightly higher to 1.38 million units for the year. We do expect mortgage rates will continue to trend lower through 2025 and into 2026. This, combined with the strong fundamentals underlying softwood lumber’s main end-use markets, as well as the historically low inventories of homes for sale, will help push starts up to 1.501 million in 2026. The declines in residential-improvement expenditures next year will mostly offset growth in housing starts, with North American consumption forecast to increase just 0.7 per cent for the year. We expect North American consumption growth to increase to 4.8 per cent in 2026 as the recovery in the U.S. economy and end-use markets builds momentum. 

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Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
February 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Builder sentiment fell sharply in February over concerns on tariffs, elevated mortgage rates and high housing costs. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 42 in February, down five points from January and the lowest level in five months. …While builders hold out hope for pro-development policies, particularly for regulatory reform, policy uncertainty and cost factors created a reset for 2025 expectations. Uncertainty on the tariff front helped push builders’ expectations for future sales volume down to the lowest level since December 2023. With 32% of appliances and 30% of softwood lumber coming from international trade, uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs has builders further concerned about costs. …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell four points to 46, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months plunged 13 points to 46, and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point decline to 29.

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US single-family housing starts decrease 8.4% in January

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
February 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Constrained housing affordability conditions due to ongoing, elevated interest rates led to a reduction in single-family production to start the new year. Overall housing starts decreased 9.8% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.37 million units. …Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 8.4% to a 993,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate; the January pace was 1.8% lower than a year ago. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 13.5% to an annualized 373,000 pace. …High construction costs, elevated mortgage rates and challenging housing affordability conditions are causing builders to approach the market with caution. There are competing upside and downside risks, including discussed tariffs and regulatory reform. …Overall permits increased 0.1% to a 1.48 million unit annualized rate in January. Single-family permits were at a 996,000 annual unit rate, remaining unchanged compared to the previous month. Multifamily permits increased 0.2% to an annualized 487,000 pace.

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Rebuilding after LA fires to cost more as new tariffs drive up prices on key materials

By Vania Patino
Spectum News
March 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US West

CHINO, Calif. — Where some just see lumber, Marc Saracco, a sales manager at wholesale distributor Capital Lumber Company, sees the building blocks of new communities. Although with the 25% tariffs President Donald Trump is placing on imports from Mexico and Canada, Saracco said those building blocks are expected to get more expensive. “I estimate that the tariffs from appliances to lumber would cost a homeowner between $30,000 and $40,000 per house,” Saracco said. He said it could exacerbate the current housing shortage. “We as an industry rely heavily on what they produce. About 30% of the lumber that we consume in the United States comes from Canada,” Saracco said. …”You’re talking about $600 million just in the scale of the rebuild in additional tariffs to meet those 15,000 homes that absolutely need to be rebuilt,” Saracco said. …With domestic sawmills closing, Saracco said it would take 10 to 20 years before the U.S. can internally meet lumber demand. 

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Boise Cascade reports Q4, 2024 net income of $69 million

By Boise Cascade Company
Business Wire
February 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US West

BOISE, Idaho — Boise Cascade reported fourth quarter net income of $68.9 million on sales of $1.6 billion. For the full year 2024, Boise Cascade reported net income of $376.4 million on sales of $6.7 billion. …Wood Products’ sales, including sales to Building Materials Distribution (BMD), decreased $30.0 million, or 7%, to $419.7 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024, from $449.7 million for the three months ended December 31, 2023. The decrease in sales was driven by lower sales prices for LVL and I-joists and plywood, as well as lower I-joist sales volumes. These decreases were offset partially by higher LVL and plywood sales volumes. 

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BlueLinx reports Q4, 2024 net income of $5.3 million

By Bluelinx Holdings Inc.
Business Wire
February 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

ATLANTA — BlueLinx, a U.S. wholesale distributor of building products, reported financial results for the three months and twelve months ended December 28, 2024. …In the fourth quarter of 2024, net sales were $711 million, a decrease of $1.9 million when compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Gross profit was $113 million, a decrease of $5.1 million, or 4.3%, year-over-year, and gross margin was 15.9%. …Net income for the current quarter was $5.3 million versus a net loss of $18.1 million in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was $21.5 million, or 3.0% of net sales, compared to $36.5 million, or 5.1% of net sales in the prior period. …For the fiscal year ended December 28, 2024, net sales were $3.0 billion, a decrease of $183.8 million, or 5.9% year-over-year. …Net income was $53.1 million versus $48.5 million in the prior year.

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LP Building Solutions reports Q4, 2024 net income of $63 million

LP Building Solutions
February 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

NASHVILLE, Tennessee — Louisiana-Pacific, a manufacturer of building products, reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024. Net sales for the fourth quarter of 2024 increased year-over-year by $22 million (or 3%) to $681 million. Siding revenue increased by $29 million(or 9%) to $362 million, due to 3% higher volumes and 6% higher prices. OSB net sales decreased by $5 million (or 2%) to $267 million, driven by 7% lower prices partially offset by 6% higher volumes. Net income increased year-over-year by $4 million to $63 million. …Net sales for 2024 increased year-over-year by $360 million (or 14%) to $2.9 billion. …Net income increased year-over-year by $243 million (or 137%) to $420 million. The increase primarily reflects a $210 million increase in Adjusted EBITDA.

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Increase of domestic timber to boost UK economy and housebuilding

Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs
GOV.UK
February 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

A new roadmap to get Britain building with the use of sustainable and low carbon building materials, will help solve the housing crisis and achieve 2050 net zero targets. New, ambitious plans to increase the use of timber in construction to boost the domestic timber industry, economic growth, rural jobs and housebuilding targets, have been announced today at the Timber in Construction Summit in London. The government has outlined new methods to deliver on its Plan for Change that will help to build 1.5million sustainable and affordable homes, create a low-waste circular construction sector and drive further investment into domestic timber and wood-processing supply chains. Speaking at the Summit, Minister Creagh confirmed the government will recommit to the Timber in Construction Roadmap, which outlines measures to increase the use of timber in the construction sector.

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Japan’s Timber Import Trends Show Changes

Global Wood Markets in Forestry.com
February 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Japan’s timber industry is seeing notable changes, with predictions of a drop in log imports and varying trends in lumber imports. These shifts are influenced by economic factors, environmental concerns, and policy decisions affecting how Japan uses timber. The Japan Lumber Importers Association has shared its predictions for wood imports, expecting a 13% decrease in log imports for 2024. …While log imports are expected to decline, the situation with lumber imports is more complex. In 2024, lumber imports are projected to increase by 17.2%. However, in the first half of 2025, a 12.5% decrease is expected compared to the same period the previous year. Several factors influence these mixed trends… Japan’s housing starts decreased by 4.6% year-over-year in 2023, with owner-occupied housing falling by 11.4%. These changes directly impact the demand for lumber, influencing import volumes.

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Vietnam’s wood industry concerned about Trump tax policy risks

By Lan Do
The Investor, Vafie Magazine
February 22, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Chanh Phuong

HO CHI MINH, Vietnam — One of the major concerns of Vietnam’s wood industry is the reaction of the U.S. market to the Trump administration’s possible tax policy after a year of strong growth, said Nguyen Chanh Phuong, of the Handicraft and Wood Industry Association of Ho Chi Minh City. …In 2024, the wood industry achieved impressive growth with sales of $16.3 billion, an increase of nearly 21% compared to 2023. …The US market accounted for about 55% of total export turnover, while Europe reached about $1.2 billion, accounting for 7.3%. …Since Trump became President of the U.S. for the second time, the US has not imposed tariffs on any Vietnamese wood products. However, President Trump said he is considering a plan to expand the scope of tariffs on lumber and forest products. The tax rate he is considering is 25%.

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