OTTAWA — The six-month trend in housing starts decreased (1.7%) in November (264,445 units), according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada. Actual housing starts were down 3% year-over-year in centres with a population of 10,000 or greater, with 21,870 units recorded in November, compared to 22,501 units in November 2024. The year-to-date total was 219,077 units, up 4% from the same period in 2024. The total monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was up 9.4% in November (254,058 units) compared to October (232,245 units). “Both the six-month trend and actual starts fell in November, showing signs of slowing momentum in residential construction,” said Kevin Hughes, CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist. “However, on a year-to-date basis, starts are still elevated compared to last year.”
Canada’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 2.4% in December compared to the same period last year, when the federal government implemented a GST break that brought some prices down, Statistics Canada said. The temporary tax cut, which began on Dec. 14, 2024, lasted for two months. It reverberated through monthly inflation data for part of 2025 but officially fell out of the year-over-year movement last month, sending price growth accelerating, according to the data agency. December’s rate was a smidge higher than the 2.2% rate seen in November. It was partly offset by a year-over-year decline in gas prices. With energy excluded, inflation rose to 3% in December. …”The main takeaway here is that after a year of some wide divergences, almost all of the main measures of inflation are now very close to [2.5%], in tune with the Bank of Canada’s view on the pace of underlying inflation,” wrote BMO’s Douglas Porter.
There are solid reasons to expect near-term strength in the US and Canadian construction markets. In the US, rapid technological progress and supportive federal policies are driving major investments in semiconductor fabrication, AI-related data centers, and energy infrastructure, with growing momentum toward nuclear power. In Canada, federal and provincial governments are promoting “nation-building” projects that emphasize LNG export capacity, port expansions, and new mines for critical minerals required by the digital economy. Both nations recognize that housing supply must rise substantially to meet population needs, signaling a long-term boost in residential construction. Yet, 2025 proved disappointing for overall construction performance, especially in employment. …Housing activity revealed a sharper divide between the two nations. U.S. housing starts in November 2025 dropped to an annualized 1.246 million units, the lowest since the pandemic. Most analysts believe the country needs at least 1.5 million starts per year to meet demand. 
Lumber futures rose toward $535 per thousand board feet, rebounding from the September low of $528 reached on January 7th after a low liquidity holiday sell off unwound, improving seasonal demand expectations and longer term supply tightening. Renewed engagement from market participants, signaled that forced selling and the thin trading conditions that pushed prices to multi month lows have faded. Seasonal demand expectations have strengthened as builders begin positioning ahead of the spring construction period, when consumption typically improves following year end destocking. Industry forecasts point to a modest pickup in US housing starts and repair and remodel activity in 2026 as interest rates ease and trade uncertainty recedes, supporting demand after a weak finish to 2025. At the same time, longer term supply growth remains constrained by ongoing tariffs on Canadian softwood and slower capacity expansion across North American sawmills, limiting surplus.
Canada is becoming far more attractive in commodity goods to the rest of the world, as it diversifies its trade away from the US, says one analyst. Imports outpaced exports in October. Merchandise imports increased by 3.4% in October while exports increased by 2.1%. Because of this, Canada’s merchandise trade balance went from a surplus of $243 million in September to a $583 million deficit in October. …William Pellerin, a trade lawyer, said whether it be Malaysian kitchen cabinet manufacturers, or Chinese goods, he said “Canada is becoming far more attractive at lower pricing in many commodity goods and in many manufactured sectors.” On the other hand, the data shows exports to the US made up 67.3% of all Canadian exports, which is the lowest since the pandemic. …Cabinet and wood makers face a difficult challenge as they face a 25% tariff and lose access to the US market, said Pellerin.
Lumber futures slid below $530 per thousand board feet, testing the lowest levels since October 2024, as weak near-term demand collided with abundant and re-emerging supply. Homebuilding activity remains subdued and mortgage borrowing costs are still elevated, restraining new starts and repair and remodel demand, while US housing starts have softened and 30-year mortgage rates entered January little changed near the mid-6% range. At the same time structural supply pressures are returning, with several panel and OSB mills ramping up or preparing to add capacity and shifts in North American output seeing Canadian curtailments largely offset by higher production in the US South, keeping physical availability ample and capping any upside. In the meantime, inventory and futures market activity increased over the holiday period, amplifying downside moves when buyers stayed sidelined after year-end and seasonal restocking remained muted. [END]
President Trump’s tariff and trade policies dominated the world’s political discourse through 2025. …The good news is that the BC economy has been fairly resilient through 2025. …BC trade resilience can also be attributed to a broader export commodity mix, dominated by forestry, agricultural and seafood products, as well as mining and oil and gas. …Forest products were tagged with a sectoral tariff of 10 per cent in October 2025, on top of new anti-dumping and countervailing tariffs on softwood lumber. …This has put tremendous pressure on an industry. …It’s difficult to disentangle the impact of tariffs from overall adverse trends in the BC forest industry, many mill closures and curtailments in recent years. BC forestry exports are among the most exposed to the US market, with about 75% of forestry exports headed south. Exports of softwood lumber were down 26% in August 2025 compared to August 2024. Pulp and paper exports were also down 9% on a year-to-date basis compared to 2024.
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VANCOUVER, BC – Canfor Pulp Products announced the expiration of the go-shop period provided for in the previously announced arrangement agreement dated December 3, 2025 between Canfor Pulp and Canfor Corporation, pursuant to which Canfor Corp will acquire all of Canfor Pulp’s issued and outstanding common shares not already owned by Canfor Corp and its affiliates. Under the terms of the Arrangement Agreement, each shareholder of Canfor Pulp will have the option to receive: 0.0425 of a common share of Canfor Corp per Canfor Pulp Share held, or $0.50 in cash per Canfor Pulp Share held. …During the Go-Shop Period, Canfor Pulp was permitted to actively solicit, evaluate and enter into negotiations with third parties that expressed an interest in acquiring Canfor Pulp. …The Go-Shop Period expired on January 19, 2026. Canfor Pulp did not receive any Acquisition Proposals.
B.C.’s GDP is forecast to increase by 1.6% this year, 
In October, single-family building permits weakened, reflecting continued caution among builders amid affordability constraints and financing challenges. In contrast, multifamily permit activity remained steady and continued to perform relatively well. Together, these trends suggest that while demand for new housing persists, builders are adjusting residential construction activity in response to evolving market conditions. Because permits typically precede construction starts, these patterns offer insight into the near-term outlook for residential building activity. Over the first ten months of 2025, the number of single-family permits issued nationwide reached 787,122. On a year-over-year basis, this represents a 7.0 percent decline compared with the October 2024 year-to-date total of 846,446. Multifamily permitting activity was stronger, with 426,352 permits issued nationwide, marking a 5.7 percent increase from the same period last year.
Global markets plunged Tuesday after President Trump reignited fears of a US trade war with the European Union, America’s largest trading partner. The president showed no signs of backing off his threat from Saturday to hit seven EU countries and the United Kingdom with new tariffs unless they supported his push for American control of Greenland. Asked if he would be willing to use force to seize the semi-autonomous Danish territory, Trump replied, “No comment,” on Monday. The S&P 500 sold off by around 1.3% in early trading, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 600 points. The S&P 500 has erased its gains for the year so far. Investors also sold off U.S. government bonds, driving up interest rates. Rising returns on US treasuries usually translate into higher mortgage rates and interest on new personal loans.
In the third quarter of 2025, the NAHB remodeling index (RMI) posted a reading of 64, increasing four points compared to the previous quarter. Most remodelers are finding reasonably strong market conditions, even with the normal seasonal slowdown during the holidays. The major headwinds the industry is experiencing continue to be rising costs and potential customers hesitating due to policy and economic uncertainty. Demand for remodeling is being supported by an aging housing stock, strong homeowner equity and increasing need for aging-in-place improvements. …In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Current Conditions Index averaged 71, increasing three points from the previous quarter. …The Future Indicators Index averaged 56, up four points from the previous quarter. 
WASHINGTON — US single-family homebuilding rebounded in October, but permits for future construction eased, signaling caution among builders as new housing inventory remains high and demand soft. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 874,000 units in October, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Friday. Starts dropped to a pace of 829,000 units in September from a 869,000-unit pace in August. The reports were delayed by the 43-day government shutdown. …Permits for future single-family homebuilding fell 0.5% to a rate of 876,000 units in October. They increased to a pace of 880,000 units in September from a 858,000-unit rate in August.
Long-term mortgage rates have been declining since mid- 2025 and ended the year at their lowest level since September 2024. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% in December, 5 basis points (bps) lower than November. Meanwhile, the 15-year rate declined 3 bps to 5.48%. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year rate is lower by about half a percentage point, or 53 basis points (bps). The 15-year rate is also lower by 45 bps. …Falling lower mortgage rates have started to translate into gains as existing home sales edged up slightly in November. However, this increase remains limited as mortgage rates above 6% are still considered elevated. Nonetheless, as financing costs continue decline, more households are likely to reenter the housing market. …NAHB expects the 30-year mortgage rate to average 6.17% in 2026 and would reach 6% by 2027.
The recent softening demand and prices in the lumber market represent a critical inflection point, marking a transition from unprecedented volatility to a more complex, albeit somewhat stabilized, environment. The key takeaway is that while the extreme highs of the pandemic era are behind us, lumber prices have established a new, elevated baseline, significantly impacting housing affordability and construction costs. This recalibration is driven by a delicate balance of oversupply in some segments, subdued but potentially recovering demand, and persistent supply-side challenges, including increased tariffs on Canadian imports and ongoing labor shortages. …The lasting impact of this period will likely be a more resilient and adaptable construction industry. …The market is not returning to its pre-pandemic state; rather, it is evolving into a new equilibrium where strategic foresight and agility will be paramount for success.
Nonfarm payrolls grew slightly more than expected in November but slumped in October while unemployment hit its highest in four years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday in numbers delayed by the government shutdown. Job growth totaled a seasonally adjusted 64,000 for the month, better than the Dow Jones estimate of 45,000 and up from a sharp decline in October. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, more than expected and its highest level since September 2021. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons swelled to 8.7%, its peak going back to August 2021. In addition to the November report, the BLS released an abbreviated October count that showed payrolls down 105,000. While there was no official estimate, Wall Street economists were largely expecting a decline following a surprise increase of 108,000 in September.
HÀ NỘI — Despite unprecedented challenges from global markets and the growing impacts of climate change, 2025 marked a historic milestone for Việt Nam’s wood industry, as export turnover of timber and wood products surpassed US$17 billion for the first time. According to data from Việt Nam Customs, exports of timber and wood products reached nearly $1.7 billion in December 2025 alone, bringing total export value for the year to $17.2 billion – an increase of nearly 6 per cent compared with 2024. In 2025, exports of timber and wood products to the US totalled $9.46 billion, up 4.4 per cent year on year and accounting for approximately 55 per cent of the industry’s total export turnover. Việt Nam continued to maintain its position as the largest supplier of wooden furniture to the US market. …Việt Nam’s market share of wooden furniture in the US increased significantly, rising from 40.5 per cent in the first eight months of 2024 to 45.3 per cent in the same period of 2025. 
KUCHING, Malasia — Chinese timber companies are struggling in their businesses due to insufficient orders for their products amid a weak global market. They have complained about poor demand in the timber market and intense competition in terms of product prices. Adding to their woes are rising raw material costs, according to the key challenges reported in the Global Timber Index-China Index report in November 2025. …To mitigate the challenges, Chinese enterprises suggested the need to expand into international markets to increase the volume of orders for their products, and called for government policy support for their operations. …Back home, China reported strong domestic retail sales of furniture, reaching 17.9 billion yuan in October, a 9.6 per cent increase from a year ago. …In a related development, China reported a robust export market for its particleboard, which surged by 67 per cent in volume.
Deposits $10.6 Billion CAD + Interest 2.6 Billion + FX Gain 0.5 Billion = Total $13.7 Billion
Canadian softwood lumber exporters are currently paying a combined duty deposit rate of 45.16% on lumber imported into the United States.