OTTAWA — New data released by Statistics Canada suggests the economy was rebounding in the first few months of the year after a mild contraction to close 2025. The agency said on Tuesday real gross domestic product edged up 0.1% in January, helped by strength in goods-producing industries, which expanded by 0.2%. Looking ahead, the agency added that its preliminary estimate for February suggests the economy grew 0.2% for the month, though it cautioned the figure would be revised. Statistics Canada’s initial estimates for January published last month expected real GDP to be relatively flat. Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO, said “it does look like we had moderate growth in the first quarter of the year, which, given a lot of the other indicators, is not a bad place to be”. …Statistics Canada estimated the economy contracted 0.5% on an annualized basis in the final quarter of 2025.
Lumber futures retreated toward $590 per thousand board feet as the cooling of the North American residential construction sector eroded the demand floor that had supported the market since January. The primary downward pressure stems from a slowdown in housing activity where single-family starts plunged 14.2% in March and building permits fell 5.4% signaling a sharp reduction in seasonal requirements. This demand destruction was catalyzed by a 11 basis point surge in mortgage rates to 6.45% following the Federal Reserve decision to hold interest rates steady alongside global inflationary spikes. While geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz initially pushed energy costs higher, the resulting increase in financing costs and a 10% drop in US housing starts outweighed the potential for supply chain disruptions. Furthermore a 2.4% increase in unsold builder inventory forced price cuts.
Lumber futures fell below $600 per thousand board feet as a slowdown in the North American housing market and rising financing costs outweighed persistent supply constraints. This downward pressure was driven by a 5.4% decline in building permits and a sharp 14.2% collapse in single-family housing starts, which signaled a cooling of construction activity as the spring season began. Additionally, 30-year fixed mortgage rates climbed to 6.22% following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady, the market was further pressured by a sharp drop in crude oil prices that reduced the energy-heavy transport and production overheads. These factors effectively neutralized the marginal one-point gain in the NAHB Housing Market Index to 38, leaving 37% of builders reliant on deep price cuts to move a 2.4% increase in unsold inventory. Structural supply issues like the 45% combined duties on Canadian softwood and ongoing sawmill closures continue to provide a floor.
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% today as the economy performs below expectations, but war in the Middle East threatens higher inflation. The central bank’s decision to keep to the sidelines today was widely expected, but the future path for the policy rate is much less clear. Governor Tiff Macklem says in prepared remarks that the Bank of Canada is in a “dilemma” with U.S. trade uncertainty keeping the economy soft, but the Iran war sending global oil prices surging and likely spurring higher inflation in the months to come. Macklem says the central bank will look through the immediate inflationary hit from the war, but monetary policymakers will move to prevent persistent price hikes if the conflict persists or broadens. Statistics Canada reported an economic contraction in the fourth quarter of the year and sharp job losses in February.
Lumber futures climbed past $600 per thousand board feet as stabilizing housing sentiment and tightening production capacity across North America reversed a two month downward trend. The NAHB Housing Market Index edged up to 38 in March with buyer traffic and future sales expectations showing marginal gains despite persistent economic uncertainty. While 37% of builders continue to offer price cuts to attract buyers the market is finding support from a 29.1% surge in multifamily housing starts and a 7.2% rise in total residential construction activity. On the supply side mill closures and elevated duties on Canadian imports are projected to remove over 1.3 billion board feet from the market this year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further pressure the outlook as rising energy costs inflate transport and shipping expenses for global timber. These factors suggest a shift toward a supply constrained environment that offsets the impact of high mortgage rates.
VANCOUVER, BC — Conifex Timber reported results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. EBITDA* from continuing operations was negative $12.6 million for the quarter and negative $27.5 million for the year, compared to EBITDA of negative $2.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and negative $13.6 million for the year. Net loss was $35.7 million or negative $0.87 per share for the year versus net loss in the preceding year of $29.8 million. …Our lumber production was 147.9 million board feet in 2025 reflecting an annualized operating rate of 62%. Lumber production in 2025 benefited from higher operating rates in the first half of the year but was impacted by curtailments and modified operating configurations in the second half of 2025 in response to lower lumber prices and higher duty deposit rates and tariff impositions. Lumber production in 2024 was 134.8 million board feet, reflecting an annualized operating rate of 56%.
ONTARIO — Potential buyers across Ontario are poised to receive a significant tax discount on newly-built homes, but only for a limited time, as the Ford government looks to boost a sector struggling with a slump in sales. As part of his spring budget, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy is expected to announce that the provincial portion of the harmonized sales tax will be removed for anyone buying a newly-constructed home, rewriting a policy the government introduced just months ago. …Ontario’s pledge to waive its portion of the HST came shortly after a similar announcement by the federal government — allowing first-time homebuyers to save up to $130,000 on a new home under $1 million, and lower rebates for homes costing up to $1.5 million. But the offer failed to ignite the market, forcing the government to take a second pass at the policy, and offer the discount to a wider swath of purchasers. 
The landscape of the United States wood products industry in 2026 is being shaped by evolution from commodity lumber toward high-performance engineered wood systems. …While traditional sawmills have faced a turbulent consolidation period, the emergence of mass timber, specifically glulam and cross laminated timber, have created a high-growth sector that is increasingly more independent from the traditional volatility of the single-family residential market. …On the supply side, the wood industry is navigating a period of restructured supply and capacity following a series of significant mill closures in recent years. …Looking ahead to 2027 and beyond, as new mills come online, the industry is poised to move engineered wood products and mass timber from a niche specialty to a standard building practice. The core business challenge for the next 24 months will be the development of a more robust domestic supply chain that can support American builders amid logistics disruptions. 
Mortgage rates, which dipped below 6% in February, climbed back up to end the month just under 6.4%. According to 
National housing data shows deck inclusion in new homes remains below 18%, according to the US Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction. For dealers and distributors, that number doesn’t tell the whole story. It does, however, set the stage for a stronger, more profitable era for decking—especially in custom home construction and high-end remodel markets. Custom builds may represent a smaller slice of total housing starts, but they also make up a disproportionately larger share of premium decking materials and system upgrades. And that’s where one opportunity lies. In the custom builder market, decks are far from an afterthought. They’re often part of the architectural plan from Day 1—particularly in markets with walkout basements, elevated foundations, and building lots with natural views. …The stakes go beyond just a nice-looking place to sit outside. Today’s builders, remodelers, and homeowners need environmentally sound, code ready, and easy to install materials.
US consumer confidence unexpectedly edged up in March, but households anticipated higher inflation over the next 12 months amid a surge in gasoline prices and continued tariffs pass-through, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 91.8 this month. Data for February was revised slightly down to show the index at 91.0 instead of 91.2. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 88.0. “Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025. The month-long U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has sent global oil prices surging more than 50%.
The United States is facing a housing shortage that continues to put upward pressure on home prices and limit access to affordable housing. According to the Up for Growth 2025 Housing Underproduction study, the country remains millions of homes short of meeting current demand – a gap that cannot be closed without increasing the pace and scale of home construction. …In residential construction, two primary lumber species underpin nearly all home building: Spruce-Pine-Fir (SPF) and Southern Yellow Pine (SYP). These are not interchangeable commodities, they are complementary materials with distinct structural properties, regional availability, and performance characteristics. SPF, largely grown in Canada and the Pacific Northwest, is valued for its strength-to-weight ratio, dimensional stability, and ease of use in framing applications. SYP, produced primarily in the U.S. Southeast, offers high density and strength, making it well-suited for other structural and composite uses. Both are essential, and neither alone can meet the needs of the U.S. housing market.
The Trump Administration is scavenging for ideas to lower costs for home-buyers. One idea being considered is to ease credit checks for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—that is, backed by taxpayers. Americans saw a version of this policy two decades ago, and it didn’t end well. Mortgage rates have dropped in the last year, but many Americans still can’t afford to buy a home. Enter the Mortgage Bankers Association, which is lobbying the Administration to let lenders underwrite mortgages based on a single credit report. The outfit says this would reduce borrower costs. Maybe, but taxpayers may pay a bigger price later if this results in more defaults. The Federal Housing Finance Agency currently requires lenders to pull three credit reports. …The real reason lenders want to eliminate the tri-merge requirement is so they can make more loans to borrowers with poor credit. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
Economists have pulled up their risk assessments of a U.S. contraction amid heightened uncertainty over geopolitical risk and a labor market that for the past year has shown strains over the past year. “I’m concerned recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Recession is a real threat here.” Twin concerns about growth and unemployment have triggered talk of stagflation, a characterization that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has rejected. But the threat of a prolonged war, pressure on consumers and a labor market that, outside of health care, lost hundreds of thousands of jobs last year has kept concerns elevated.
According to a joint study from the American Institute of Architects, the Associated General Contractors of America, and ConstructConnect® News, tariff-driven cost increases are causing delays and cancellations for some projects across the country. …The NAHB has worked alongside Senators Jacky Rosen and Chris Coons to introduce legislation that would address the housing affordability crisis by creating an exemption process for building materials from tariffs. The Housing Tariff Exclusion Act would exempt many home building materials from President Trump’s current and future tariffs and allow importers to apply for tariff exemptions. …Though the Housing Tariff Exclusion Act has not been passed yet, it would be a boon to not only manufacturers, but also to the construction teams and homeowners across the country that have been unable to move forward with their projects due to the current leap in pricing. 
WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials, convening in a wartime setting that began less than three weeks ago, are expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday even as a fresh jump in oil prices and data showing a rise in some aspects of inflation even before the start of the war with Iran may prompt them to recast the outlook for the U.S. economy, inflation and monetary policy. New projections to be released by the U.S. central bank at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) will show how policymakers assess the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s decision to launch an open-ended conflict in the Middle East, but the environment remained volatile even as they began the second day of their latest two-day policy meeting. …US producer prices rose in February by 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. Rising producer prices can feed into retail costs and signal higher future inflation.
NEW ZEALAND — The logging industry is warning that some companies could be on the brink as the conflict in Iran pushes up the cost of diesel. Logging operators say it’s increasingly difficult to get logs to port and if the situation drags on, export-reliant regions like South Canterbury and the west coast of the North Island could face shutdowns. The costs of shipping have risen dramatically, with rates going from roughly US$33 ($56) per cubic metre into China for March, through to about US$45 in April. Forest Management group director Glenn Moir said that would put some companies on the brink. “I can see that if it does continue, we’re going to face some real pressure in the higher-cost forests – so the ones that are further away from the market and have steeper country – just to make it economic.” There had been some huge cost pressures going through the chain.
European laminate flooring manufacturer sales declined 6.50% to 263.4 million m2 in 2025, according to the European Producers of Laminate Flooring (EPLF). The sales decreased from 281.6 million m2 in 2024. EPLF said the trend reflects the broader slowdown observed across construction markets, particularly in new residential builds and renovation activity, which continued to weigh on demand throughout the year. EPLF said the 2025 figures point to a “year of adjustment” for the laminate flooring sector. “While global volumes declined, demand remained comparatively more stable in the core European markets, which continue to represent the majority of EPLF sales,” it said. “Regional differences indicate that market conditions evolved at different speeds rather than following a single global pattern.” Europe accounted for more than 80% of total sales by EPLF member countries, confirming its position as the core market for the laminate flooring.