Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

What are the Prospects for Lumber Prices as Spring 2026 Approaches?

By Andrew Hecht
Barchart
January 30, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

I am bullish on lumber prices as the spring approaches for the following compelling reasons: Trade policy between the U.S. and Canada could significantly increase lumber prices, as tariffs are trade barriers that distort prices. Canada is a leading lumber-producing country. Falling U.S. interest rates could boost demand for new home construction, driving rising lumber demand and prices. The trend in lumber prices since early December is higher, and the trend is always a trader’s or investor’s best friend. Seasonality favors the upside over the coming months. Lumber could rally substantially over the coming weeks and months. Technical resistance is at $618.50, the recent high, $635, the high from October 2025, and just below $700 per 1,000 board feet, the highs from August and March 2025. 

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Bank of Canada governor warns of unusual potential for new economic shock

By Reuters in CTV News
January 29, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Tiff Macklem

OTTAWA — Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem told Reuters he saw unusual potential for a new shock to the economy, given elevated geopolitical risks and US trade policy. Macklem said on Wednesday that more factors than usual could deter Canada from achieving the bank’s economic forecasts, citing US President Trump’s threats toward Greenland, his removal of Venezuela’s leader, and repeated threats to impose more tariffs on Canada. “There is unusual potential for a new shock, a new disruption,” Macklem said. “Geopolitical risks are elevated.” …The BoC, which on Wednesday said it would keep its interest rate on hold, released new projections for the economy and inflation in its monetary policy report. These forecasts for modest growth in 2026 and 2027 were largely similar to its estimates released in October, but Macklem believes there are more risks these projections could go wrong.

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Canada could gain nearly 7% in real GDP by removing internal trade barriers, says IMF

By Jenna Benchetrit
CBC News
January 27, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s economy could gain nearly 7%, or $210 billion, in real GDP over a gradual period by fully removing internal trade barriers between the country’s 13 provinces and territories, according to a report published Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). On average, regulation-related barriers are the equivalent of a 9% tariff nationally, estimates the report, which was co-authored by IMF researchers Federico J. Diez and Yuanchen Yang with contributions from University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe. …Because of the trade barriers between provinces, “Canada isn’t really one economy. It’s really 10 economies,” said Alicia Planincic, director of policy and economics at the Business Council of Alberta in Calgary. …The report points to finance, telecom, transportation and professional services as far-reaching sectors that “ripple through the economy” and raise costs for all of the businesses they touch. 

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Bank of Canada maintains key interest rate at 2.25%, as CUSMA negotiations loom

By John MacFarlane , Jeff Lagerquist and Leah Golob
Yahoo! Finance
January 28, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The Bank of Canada held its overnight interest rate steady at 2.25 per cent on Wednesday in a move widely expected by economists. The announcement comes amid ongoing trade uncertainty, with increased focus on the negotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement and a murky outlook for the Canadian economy later in the year. Ahead of the announcement, economists polled by Reuters were unanimous in their expectations for a hold today, and nearly 75% forecast the central bank will stay on hold through 2026. In its December decision the Bank also held its policy rate stable. …“While this rate hold provides some stability, other factors such as economic uncertainty, potential job loss and affordability are continuing to put downward pressure on the housing market,” Rates.ca mortgage and real estate expert Victor Tran said in a statement following today’s decision.”

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Bank of Canada expected to keep key rate steady this week — and maybe all year long

By Craig Lord
The Canadian Press in Business in Vancouver
January 26, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

OTTAWA — Many economists expect no change in the Bank of Canada’s benchmark interest rate later this week — and, possibly, for the rest of the year. The central bank will make its first interest rate decision of 2026 on Wednesday. Financial market odds for a rate hold this week stood at nearly 90 per cent as of Monday morning, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25 per cent in December, coming off two consecutive quarter-point cuts in the second half of 2025. At that decision, governor Tiff Macklem said the central bank believes monetary policy is at “about the right level” to balance a turbulent economy and lingering inflationary pressures. TD Bank economist Rishi Sondhi said in a note Friday that forecasters ought to take the Bank of Canada at its word when it comes to rate expectations.

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Canadian railway carloading ticked up in November, lumber loading fell 22%

Statistics Canada
January 26, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

In November, the volume of cargo carried by Canadian railways was up slightly (+0.5%) from November 2024 to 31.4 million tonnes. Higher volumes of intermodal shipments (mainly containers) as well as higher carloadings of wheat largely contributed to the increase in November 2025. The overall freight volume in November was on par with the five-year average of 31.5 million tonnes for the month. …Growth in non-intermodal freight loadings in November was moderated by declines in several commodities. Loadings of other oil seeds and nuts, and other agricultural products were down sharply by 35.4% (-312 000 tonnes) year over year—the largest drop in tonnage since December 2018. In November 2025, loadings of iron ores and concentrates decreased 6.4% (-287 000 tonnes) compared with November 2024, while loadings of lumber were down 22.1% (-143 000 tonnes), a fourth consecutive month of year-over-year decline.

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Investment in Canadian Building Construction rose 9.7%in November

Statistics Canada
January 21, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The total value of investment in building construction increased 9.7% to $24.5 billion in November. This increase partly stems from October’s rise of 14.9% in the total value of building permits, reflecting a lag in converting permit issuance into on-site construction investment. The residential sector rose 13.3% in November, and the non-residential sector was up 1.4%. Year over year, investment in building construction grew 16.6% in November. On a constant dollar basis (2023=100), the total value of investment in building construction rose 9.6% from the previous month to $22.7 billion in November and was up 13.0% year over year. …Investment in single-family home construction rose $351.6 million to $7.4 billion in November. Ontario (+$125.7 million) and British Columbia (+$110.8 million) led the increase, supported by broad gains across six other provinces and the three territories.

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Concessions could help Canada keep lower tariffs in trade deal review: strategist

By Daniel Johnson
The Canadian Press in the Times Colonist
January 21, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

TORONTO — The review of North America’s free trade agreement will play a large part in determining the trajectory of the Canadian economy, as one strategist says he is optimistic that certain concessions could help achieve a positive outcome. Ashish Dewan, a senior investment strategist at Vanguard, said the Canadian economy is still significantly reliant on US trade despite attempts to diversify its trading partners. He said Canada currently has a “trade advantage,” due to a lower effective tariff rate compared with other nations, sitting around six per cent compared with about 16 to 19 per cent faced by other nations. “What’s really having a negative impact on the Canadian economy are those Section 232 sectoral tariffs,” Dewan said. Tariffs covered by Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act of 1962 cover a wide range of products like steel, aluminum and lumber and are generally not exempt under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, better known as CUSMA.

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CMHC reveals which cities are leading, lagging on housing starts

By Rod Bolivar
CMHC in Wealth Professional
January 19, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s six largest CMAs recorded a 3.9% rise in housing starts in 2025, driven by a 58% jump in Montréal and record starts in Calgary and Edmonton, while Toronto fell 31% and Vancouver slipped 3%, CMHC said. CMHC said the metro gains helped lift the national annual total for all areas in Canada to 259,028 housing starts in 2025, up 5.6% from 245,367 in 2024 and ranking as the fifth highest annual total on record. …The year-over-year increase was driven by a second consecutive year of record rental housing starts, which made up just over half of all housing starts in Canada’s urban centres, CMHC said. …Among Canada’s three largest cities, CMHC said all posted year-over-year increases in December. Toronto recorded a 151% increase, driven by higher multi-unit starts. Montréal posted a 123% increase, driven by higher starts across all dwelling types. Vancouver reported a +17% increase, also driven by multi-unit starts.

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Almost $14 Billion of Softwood Lumber Duties on Deposit

By Paul Krabbe, President
eiforest consulting Ltd.
January 16, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

As of December 2025, Anti Dumping, Countervailing Duty and Section 232 softwood lumber duties and accumulated interest on deposit with the United States totals nearly $14 Billion.

Deposits $10.6 Billion CAD + Interest 2.6 Billion + FX Gain 0.5 Billion = Total $13.7 Billion

Canadian softwood lumber exporters are currently paying a combined duty deposit rate of 45.16% on lumber imported into the United States.

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Canada’s inflation ticks up to 2.4% in December as last year’s GST break impacts data

By Jenna Benchetrit
CBC News
January 19, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 2.4% in December compared to the same period last year, when the federal government implemented a GST break that brought some prices down, Statistics Canada said. The temporary tax cut, which began on Dec. 14, 2024, lasted for two months. It reverberated through monthly inflation data for part of 2025 but officially fell out of the year-over-year movement last month, sending price growth accelerating, according to the data agency. December’s rate was a smidge higher than the 2.2% rate seen in November. It was partly offset by a year-over-year decline in gas prices. With energy excluded, inflation rose to 3% in December. …”The main takeaway here is that after a year of some wide divergences, almost all of the main measures of inflation are now very close to [2.5%], in tune with the Bank of Canada’s view on the pace of underlying inflation,” wrote BMO’s Douglas Porter.

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Canadian Housing Starts rose 5.6% in December

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
January 16, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

OTTAWA — Nationally, the housing starts total for all areas in Canada in 2025 was 259,028, the fifth highest annual total on record and up 5.6% compared to 2024 (245,367). Actual 2025 housing starts in centres of 10,000 population and over were up 6%, with 241,171 units recorded, compared to 227,697 in 2024. These increases were driven by a second consecutive year of record rental housing starts. …While housing starts in 2025 finished ahead of 2024 and inched up in December, most of the momentum in housing construction occurred in the Spring and Summer. Since September, the trend in housing starts has consistently decreased. In 2025, economic uncertainty and the diminished viability of large residential towers encouraged a shift towards smaller-scale projects,” said Mathieu Laberge, Chief Economist at CMHC. As such, housing starts are beginning this year from a weaker position and market intelligence suggests slowing momentum for residential construction. 

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Construction activity in U.S. and Canada waiting in the wings

By Alex Carrick
The Daily Commercial News
January 16, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

There are solid reasons to expect near-term strength in the US and Canadian construction markets. In the US, rapid technological progress and supportive federal policies are driving major investments in semiconductor fabrication, AI-related data centers, and energy infrastructure, with growing momentum toward nuclear power. In Canada, federal and provincial governments are promoting “nation-building” projects that emphasize LNG export capacity, port expansions, and new mines for critical minerals required by the digital economy. Both nations recognize that housing supply must rise substantially to meet population needs, signaling a long-term boost in residential construction. Yet, 2025 proved disappointing for overall construction performance, especially in employment. …Housing activity revealed a sharper divide between the two nations. U.S. housing starts in November 2025 dropped to an annualized 1.246 million units, the lowest since the pandemic. Most analysts believe the country needs at least 1.5 million starts per year to meet demand. 

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Raymond James upgrades shares of West Fraser, Canfor and Interfor as lumber conditions begin to improve

By Carl Surran
Seeking Alpha
January 14, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

West Fraser Timber was +3.9% in Wednesday’s trading as Raymond James upgraded shares to Outperform from Market Perform with a $75 price target, bumped up from $70, as Canadian lumber producers are set up for a stronger 2026 after many names are trading at or near all-time-low valuations. Raymond James analyst Daryl Swetlishoff said 2025 marked the trough of a four-year downturn in forest products, but the risk-reward has shifted to the upside with valuations at historic lows and supply tightening due to mill curtailments, restricted Canadian harvesting and limited US imports. Potential U.S. housing policy changes ahead also could improve affordability and lift lumber demand, and depressed share prices may encourage consolidation in the industry as cash-rich buyers look for deals, Swetlishoff said. Against such a backdrop, Swetlishoff also upgraded Canfor and Interfor to Strong Buy from Outperform.

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Lumber Futures Rebounds From September Lows

Trading Economics
January 9, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures rose toward $535 per thousand board feet, rebounding from the September low of $528 reached on January 7th after a low liquidity holiday sell off unwound, improving seasonal demand expectations and longer term supply tightening. Renewed engagement from market participants, signaled that forced selling and the thin trading conditions that pushed prices to multi month lows have faded. Seasonal demand expectations have strengthened as builders begin positioning ahead of the spring construction period, when consumption typically improves following year end destocking. Industry forecasts point to a modest pickup in US housing starts and repair and remodel activity in 2026 as interest rates ease and trade uncertainty recedes, supporting demand after a weak finish to 2025. At the same time, longer term supply growth remains constrained by ongoing tariffs on Canadian softwood and slower capacity expansion across North American sawmills, limiting surplus.

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Canada sees rapid increase in imports that historically would go to U.S., says analyst

By Anam Khan
BNN Bloomberg
January 8, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada is becoming far more attractive in commodity goods to the rest of the world, as it diversifies its trade away from the US, says one analyst. Imports outpaced exports in October. Merchandise imports increased by 3.4% in October while exports increased by 2.1%. Because of this, Canada’s merchandise trade balance went from a surplus of $243 million in September to a $583 million deficit in October. …William Pellerin, a trade lawyer, said whether it be Malaysian kitchen cabinet manufacturers, or Chinese goods, he said “Canada is becoming far more attractive at lower pricing in many commodity goods and in many manufactured sectors.” On the other hand, the data shows exports to the US made up 67.3% of all Canadian exports, which is the lowest since the pandemic. …Cabinet and wood makers face a difficult challenge as they face a 25% tariff and lose access to the US market, said Pellerin.

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Lumber Futures Drop Below $530

Trading Economics
January 6, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures slid below $530 per thousand board feet, testing the lowest levels since October 2024, as weak near-term demand collided with abundant and re-emerging supply. Homebuilding activity remains subdued and mortgage borrowing costs are still elevated, restraining new starts and repair and remodel demand, while US housing starts have softened and 30-year mortgage rates entered January little changed near the mid-6% range. At the same time structural supply pressures are returning, with several panel and OSB mills ramping up or preparing to add capacity and shifts in North American output seeing Canadian curtailments largely offset by higher production in the US South, keeping physical availability ample and capping any upside. In the meantime, inventory and futures market activity increased over the holiday period, amplifying downside moves when buyers stayed sidelined after year-end and seasonal restocking remained muted. [END]

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How’s the BC economy holding up in the face of the Trump trade war?

By Marc Lee
Policy Note – Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
December 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump’s tariff and trade policies dominated the world’s political discourse through 2025. …The good news is that the BC economy has been fairly resilient through 2025. …BC trade resilience can also be attributed to a broader export commodity mix, dominated by forestry, agricultural and seafood products, as well as mining and oil and gas. …Forest products were tagged with a sectoral tariff of 10 per cent in October 2025, on top of new anti-dumping and countervailing tariffs on softwood lumber. …This has put tremendous pressure on an industry. …It’s difficult to disentangle the impact of tariffs from overall adverse trends in the BC forest industry, many mill closures and curtailments in recent years. BC forestry exports are among the most exposed to the US market, with about 75% of forestry exports headed south. Exports of softwood lumber were down 26% in August 2025 compared to August 2024. Pulp and paper exports were also down 9% on a year-to-date basis compared to 2024.

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Canadian forestry exports to the U.S. hit lowest in 5 years

BNN Bloomberg – Commodities
December 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Mark Parsons, chief economist at ATB Economics, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the state of Canadian softwood lumber following fall in U.S. exports. [This is a video story]

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The US, Canada, and Europe face diverging paths in softwood lumber

By Håkan Ekström and Glen O’Kelly
Global Wood Trends in American Journal of Transportation
December 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

A new outlook report, Softwood Lumber – Tariffs, Turbulence and New Trade Flows to 2030… points to a decade defined by structural supply constraints, shifting trade routes, and rising pressure on producers, policymakers, and downstream users. The US has never produced enough softwood lumber to meet its own consumption needs, and that deficit is expected to persist through 2030. …In 2025, foreign producers are projected to meet nearly 30% of US softwood needs, close to the highest level in almost 20 years. Market realities do not support claims that the US can achieve self-sufficiency. …Even if capital were available, expansion would be limited by regional timber availability, workforce shortages, permitting delays, and delivered-cost disadvantages versus imported wood. Near-term US demand remains uncertain but long-term housing needs point to renewed growth late in the decade. New US tariffs taking effect in October 2025 are expected to reduce Canadian shipments and increase price volatility.

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Higher import taxes on Canadian softwood driving up construction costs, U.S. home builders say

By Brent Jang
The Globe and Mail
December 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The National Association of Home Builders in the United States is warning about rising costs that it says are squeezing the construction industry after a recent spike in U.S. import taxes on Canadian softwood lumber. Higher U.S. duties and new tariffs are having serious repercussions as American builders contend with escalating material and labour expenses, NAHB chairman Buddy Hughes cautioned on Monday. Builders have also been struggling during a period of sluggish sales. “Market conditions remain challenging with two-thirds of builders reporting they are offering incentives to move buyers off the fence,” Mr. Hughes said. The index’s latest survey also showed that 40 per cent of builders reported reducing prices in December, with an average price drop of 5 per cent. Warnings from the NAHB about inflationary pressures places it at odds with the powerful U.S. Lumber Coalition, whose members include Seattle-based Weyerhaeuser. [to access the full story a Globe and Mail subscription is required]

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Canada’s value of building permits rose 14.9% in October

Statistics Canada
December 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

In October, the total value of building permits issued in Canada rose $1.8 billion (+14.9%) to $13.8 billion. The increase in construction intentions was led by the residential sector (+$1.1 billion). An increase was also observed in the non-residential sector (+$702.8 million). On a constant dollar basis (2023=100), the total value of building permits issued in October grew 14.9% from the previous month and was up 5.9% on a year-over-year basis. In October, residential construction intentions increased $1.1 billion (+14.6%) to $8.6 billion. Ontario (+$882.6 million) contributed the most to the national growth. The multi-family component grew $1.0 billion to $5.9 billion in October. The largest increase was recorded in Ontario (+$876.4 million), followed by Quebec (+$81.4 million). …The single-family component was up $47.0 million to $2.6 billion in October, with the gains being primarily attributed to Alberta (+$28.7 million). Across Canada, a total of 24,300 multi-family dwellings and 4,100 single-family dwellings were authorized in October, marking a 13.6% increase from the previous month. 

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Canadian housing starts increased 9.4% in November, the six-month trend decreased 1.7%

By Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Cision Newswire
December 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

OTTAWA — The six-month trend in housing starts decreased (1.7%) in November (264,445 units), according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada. Actual housing starts were down 3% year-over-year in centres with a population of 10,000 or greater, with 21,870 units recorded in November, compared to 22,501 units in November 2024. The year-to-date total was 219,077 units, up 4% from the same period in 2024. The total monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was up 9.4% in November (254,058 units) compared to October (232,245 units). “Both the six-month trend and actual starts fell in November, showing signs of slowing momentum in residential construction,” said Kevin Hughes, CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist. “However, on a year-to-date basis, starts are still elevated compared to last year.”

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Lumber futures Lifted by Dovish Fed

Trading View
December 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures traded above $550 per thousand board feet as markets absorbed a dovish turn from the Federal Reserve that brightened the demand outlook for construction materials. The Fed’s widely anticipated 25bp cut and Chair Powell’s dovish rhetoric pushed traders to price additional easing next year, which should put downward pressure on mortgage rates and lift homebuilding and renovation activity. Those interest rate dynamics have heightened the incentive for builders and distributors to restock, while persistent tariff and trade frictions have constrained supply. Canadian log exports are down year to date even as shipments into the US have risen, Canadian manufacturing output has slipped and US lumber exports are lower, a mix that reduces available millfeed and forces buyers to compete for the supplies that remain.

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Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 2.25%

By Jenna Benchetrit
CBC News
December 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The Bank of Canada is holding its key interest rate at 2.25%, a move that was widely expected after an encouraging round of third-quarter data showed the Canadian economy has withstood some trade war-induced turmoil. Central bank governor Tiff Macklem wrote in his opening remarks that the current rate is at “about the right level” to give the economy a boost while also keeping inflation close to its 2% target rate. Canada’s economy proved more hardy than expected in the third quarter, with GDP and jobs growth beating expectations, and the unemployment rate dropping to 6.5% in November. Inflation is hovering just above 2%, and the Bank of Canada’s core measures of inflation are trending closer to 3%. While the steel, aluminum, auto and lumber sectors have been pummelled by US tariffs, which is weighing more broadly on business investment, “the economy is proving resilient overall,” Macklem said.

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Lumber Futures Hits 12-week Low

Trading Economics
December 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures fell toward $530 per thousand board feet, down nearly 10% from November’s peak, as the market contends with pronounced oversupply and lingering weak demand. Mills and distributors continue to carry elevated inventories, a hangover from early 2025 when buyers front-loaded purchases in anticipation of tariffs, leaving the market with a persistent supply overhang. At the same time, US housing starts and building permits remain below last year’s levels, reflecting a prolonged construction slowdown as easing borrowing costs have yet to materialize in higher new building activity and limit near-term consumption of framing lumber. Demand from renovation and new homebuilding also remains subdued, with housing-related wood products consumption estimated to have declined in 2024 and only a modest recovery expected in 2025. 

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Will federal initiatives help Canadian forestry stocks?

By Brian Donovan
The Globe and Mail
December 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Prime Minister Carney announced measures to help protect and strengthen the sectors most affected by U.S. tariffs. …The focus of the liquidity initiatives are to reduce bankruptcy or closure risk for leveraged or high-cost lumber mills through initiatives such as the BDC Softwood Lumber Guarantee Program… and enhancing EI worksharing and training grants. The demand support initiatives include working with railway companies to cut freight rates, prioritizing shovel-ready, multiyear projects that use Canadian wood products and creating demand for Canadian Wood products. The structural initiatives include a “forestry concierge” at Natural Resources Canada to help mills navigate loans and programs as well as an industry-led transformation task force to expand, diversify and identify opportunities and support affected communities. …The measures will help the sector but the bigger picture is really about duties and a supply/demand balance that has traditionally been difficult to obtain given this industry’s capital intensity. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]

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Construction materials prices rise despite lumber price drop

By Michael Rudy
Yield Pro
December 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The producer price index (PPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated that construction materials prices rose 0.1 percent month-over-month in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. The intermediate demand index of components and materials for construction was up 2.8 percent from its year-earlier level. Overall prices for processed goods for intermediate demand were up 0.4 percent this month. The overall processed goods for intermediate demand index was 3.8 percent higher than its year-earlier level. …The softwood lumber price index resumed its recent downward movement this month after a break in the trend last month. It was reported to fall 4.2 percent, aided by a 0.33 percent upward revision to last month’s index. The index is now down 12.2 percent since reaching a recent high in March.

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Canfor Pulp announces expiration of “Go-Shop” Period with no alternative acquisition proposal received

Canfor Pulp Products Inc.
January 20, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

VANCOUVER, BC – Canfor Pulp Products announced the expiration of the go-shop period provided for in the previously announced arrangement agreement dated December 3, 2025 between Canfor Pulp and Canfor Corporation, pursuant to which Canfor Corp will acquire all of Canfor Pulp’s issued and outstanding common shares not already owned by Canfor Corp and its affiliates. Under the terms of the Arrangement Agreement, each shareholder of Canfor Pulp will have the option to receive: 0.0425 of a common share of Canfor Corp per Canfor Pulp Share held, or $0.50 in cash per Canfor Pulp Share held. …During the Go-Shop Period, Canfor Pulp was permitted to actively solicit, evaluate and enter into negotiations with third parties that expressed an interest in acquiring Canfor Pulp. …The Go-Shop Period expired on January 19, 2026. Canfor Pulp did not receive any Acquisition Proposals.

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BC ends tough economic year by shedding 3,300 jobs

By Mark Page
Victoria News
January 12, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada West

The latest figures from Statistics Canada show B.C. ended the year with fewer people and fewer jobs. There were 3,300 job losses in B.C. in December compared to the previous month. Because the population is also in decline, the province’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4 per cent. The federal unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.8 per cent over the same period. …Forests Minister Ravi Parmar, speaking for Jobs Minister Ravi Kahlon, who is away on a trip to India, released a statement on Friday blaming U.S. President Trump’s trade threats, while picking out what positive figures he could from the latest numbers. …The goal of the India trip is to boost the B.C. economy by forging ties in sectors such as energy, forestry, mining, tech and life sciences.

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B.C. economy faces weak growth in 2026 as forestry struggles

By Daisy Xiong
Business in Vancouver
January 8, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Following a year of economic uncertainty, BC anticipates some growth in 2026, though it is expected to be limited. Deloitte Canada forecasts a 1.6% GDP growth for BC in 2026, slightly up from the forecasted 1.4% growth in 2025, according to its report titled Reset over resolutions: Building economic momentum in 2026. …Although BC hosts two of the five major nation-building projects announced last fall—LNG Canada Phase 2 and the Red Chris Mine—weakness in the forestry sector offsets this positive momentum, according to the global professional services firm. …The impact is already visible. Burnaby-based Interfor Corporation announced reductions across North America and the indefinite halt of operations in Grand Forks, BC, last fall. …Deloitte attributes the province’s minor economic growth forecast in part to the B.C. government’s efforts to secure more federal support for the forestry industry.

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Weak economic growth forecast for B.C. in 2026, says new Deloitte report

By Chad Pawson
CBC News
January 7, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

B.C.’s GDP is forecast to increase by 1.6% this year, according to a report from Deloitte, with the anemic growth tied directly to the crushing tariffs being faced by the province’s forestry sector. “I’m not surprised to hear it,” said 100 Mile House Mayor Maureen Pinkney. “We have a resource that just automatically grows out of the ground that we can’t seem to manufacture and, and sell properly for that matter. You know, it’s a very sad state.” The B.C. forestry sector has seen a wave of mill closures over the last few years, including the West Fraser Timber mill in 100 Mile House in December. …The Deloitte report said B.C. “will struggle to withstand” tariffs imposed on its forestry sector by the US. …Deloitte’s economic prediction is a small increase from the province’s previous forecast of 1.3% in growth for 2026. …Across Canada, Deloitte forecasts growth will slow to 1.5 % this year from 1.7% in 2025.

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Canfor Corporation to acquire Canfor Pulp

Canfor Corporation
December 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Vancouver, BC – Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp Products Inc. announced today that they have entered into an arrangement agreement pursuant to which Canfor Corp will acquire all of Canfor Pulp’s issued and outstanding common shares not already owned by Canfor Corp and its affiliates pursuant to a court-approved plan of arrangement under the Business Corporations Act. Under the terms of the Arrangement Agreement, the shareholders of Canfor Pulp, other than Canfor Corp and its affiliates, will have the option to receive, for each Canfor Pulp Share held: 0.0425 of a common share of Canfor Corp, or $0.50 in cash. ….Canfor Corp currently owns approximately 54.8% of the issued and outstanding Canfor Pulp Shares. The $0.50 per Canfor Pulp Share represents a premium of 25% to Canfor Pulp’s closing share price on December 2, 2025, on the Toronto Stock Exchange and a premium of 38% based on the 10-day volume-weighted average share price of Canfor Pulp as of December 2, 2025, on the TSX.

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Fed holds interest rates steady for the first time since July

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
January 28, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Fed paused its easing cycle at the conclusion of the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s monetary policy body. The Fed held the short-term federal funds rate at a top rate of 3.75%, the level set in December. This marked the first policy pause since the Fed resumed easing in September of last year. The Fed characterized the economy as being in solid health. The January statement noted: Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. …There was little forward guidance in today’s statement. …NAHB is forecasting two additional rate cuts for 2026, based on expectation of modest easing of inflation and a cooled labor market.

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US consumer confidence fell sharply in January, surpassing pandemic depths

The Conference Board
January 27, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 9.7 points in January to 84.5 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December. A 5.1-point upward revision to December’s reading of the Index resulted in a slight increase last month, reversing the initially reported decline. However, January’s preliminary results showed confidence resumed declining after a one-month uptick. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—dropped by 9.9 points to 113.7 in January. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 9.5 points to 65.1, well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff for preliminary results was January 16, 2026. …Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, said “All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2)—surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.” 

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Federal Reserve may keep rates unchanged for months as economy shows signs of health

By Christopher Rugaber
The Associated Press in ABC News
January 27, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Jerome Powell

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials are expected to keep their short-term interest rate unchanged Wednesday after three cuts last year, ignoring huge pressure for lower borrowing costs from the White House in favor of waiting to see how the economy evolves. The central bank’s rate reductions last year were intended to shore up the economy and prevent a sharper deterioration in the job market, after hiring slowed to a near-crawl in the wake of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs last April. Yet there are signs that unemployment has stabilized and the economy could be picking up. At the same time, inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. All those trends argue for keeping rates where they are. A key issue that Chair Jerome Powell will likely address at his news conference Wednesday is how long the Fed will remain on hold. The rate-setting committee remains split.

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US Consumer Sentiment rose marginally in January

The University of Michigan
January 23, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Consumer sentiment lifted about 3.5 index points this month, with minor gains seen across all index components. While the overall improvement was small, it was broad based, seen across the income distribution, educational attainment, older and younger consumers, and Republicans and Democrats alike. However, national sentiment remains more than 20% below a year ago, as consumers continue to report pressures on their purchasing power stemming from high prices and the prospect of weakening labor markets. …Year-ahead inflation expectations fell back to 4.0% this month. This is the lowest reading since January 2025 but remains well above that month’s 3.3%. Long-run inflation expectations inched up from 3.2% last month to 3.3% this month. 

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NAHB Podcast: The Davos Housing Update That Wasn’t

The National Association of Home Builders
January 22, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

On the latest episode of NAHB’s podcast, Housing Developments, COO Paul Lopez is joined by Ken Wingert to discuss the latest housing policies, including President Trump’s housing announcement (or lack thereof) at the World Economic Forum; Executive order on institutional investors; and How NAHB will continue to work with the administration and Congress as they focus on tackling the housing affordability crisis. President Trump had initially been expected to make a housing announcement yesterday at the World Economic Forum, however, the housing discussion mainly covered existing territory. …One reason is the delicate balancing act of making housing more affordable without significantly damaging existing home values. …The White House did issue an executive order on institutional investors’ participation in the housing market. …Capitol Hill has been making some headway on housing issues, including the Road to Housing Act in the Senate and Housing for the 21st Act in the House. 

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US Real GDP increased to 4.4% in Q3, 2025

US Bureau of Economic Analysis
January 22, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the updated estimate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8%. Due to the recent government shutdown, this updated report for the third quarter of 2025 replaces the release of the third estimate originally scheduled for December 19, 2025. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports were revised up. 

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US Single-Family Permits Cooled in the Fall

By Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington
NAHB Eye on Housing
January 21, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In October, single-family building permits weakened, reflecting continued caution among builders amid affordability constraints and financing challenges. In contrast, multifamily permit activity remained steady and continued to perform relatively well. Together, these trends suggest that while demand for new housing persists, builders are adjusting residential construction activity in response to evolving market conditions. Because permits typically precede construction starts, these patterns offer insight into the near-term outlook for residential building activity. Over the first ten months of 2025, the number of single-family permits issued nationwide reached 787,122. On a year-over-year basis, this represents a 7.0 percent decline compared with the October 2024 year-to-date total of 846,446. Multifamily permitting activity was stronger, with 426,352 permits issued nationwide, marking a 5.7 percent increase from the same period last year.

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US Builder Sentiment Loses Ground at Start of 2026

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
January 16, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Builder confidence moved lower to start the year as affordability concerns continue to weigh heavily with buyers, and builders continue to contend with rising construction costs. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell two points to 37 in January, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). While the upper end of the housing market is holding steady, affordability conditions are taking a toll on the lower and mid-range sectors. …In a positive development, Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage rate fell to 6.06% as of Jan. 15, the lowest rate in three years and nearly 100 basis points below the same period last year. …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions declined one point to 41 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers dropped three points to 23. The index measuring future sales fell three points to 49.

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Global markets drop sharply as Trump reignites fears of a trade war over Greenland

By Steve Kopack
NBC News
January 20, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

Global markets plunged Tuesday after President Trump reignited fears of a US trade war with the European Union, America’s largest trading partner. The president showed no signs of backing off his threat from Saturday to hit seven EU countries and the United Kingdom with new tariffs unless they supported his push for American control of Greenland. Asked if he would be willing to use force to seize the semi-autonomous Danish territory, Trump replied, “No comment,” on Monday. The S&P 500 sold off by around 1.3% in early trading, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 600 points. The S&P 500 has erased its gains for the year so far. Investors also sold off U.S. government bonds, driving up interest rates. Rising returns on US treasuries usually translate into higher mortgage rates and interest on new personal loans.

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US Remodeling Market Sentiment Strengthens in Fourth Quarter of 2025

By Eric Lynch
NAHB Eye on Housing
January 15, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In the third quarter of 2025, the NAHB remodeling index (RMI) posted a reading of 64, increasing four points compared to the previous quarter. Most remodelers are finding reasonably strong market conditions, even with the normal seasonal slowdown during the holidays. The major headwinds the industry is experiencing continue to be rising costs and potential customers hesitating due to policy and economic uncertainty. Demand for remodeling is being supported by an aging housing stock, strong homeowner equity and increasing need for aging-in-place improvements. …In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Current Conditions Index averaged 71, increasing three points from the previous quarter. …The Future Indicators Index averaged 56, up four points from the previous quarter.  

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Building Material Price Growth Remains Elevated in November

By Jesse Wade
NAHB Eye on Housing
January 14, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Residential building material prices continued to experience elevated growth, according to the latest Producer Price Index release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Price growth has been above 3.0% since June this year, despite continued weakness in the new residential construction market. Across building materials, metal products continue to experience price increases, while ready-mix concrete and softwood lumber have experienced price declines over the past year. The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2% in November, after rising 0.1% in October. …The price index for inputs to new residential construction rose 0.1% in November and was up 4.2% from last year. The price of goods used in new residential construction was up 0.4% over the month and 3.4% from last year. Meanwhile, the price for services was down 0.4% over the month and up 5.5% from last year. 

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Dow futures fall 300 points as Trump’s DOJ opens criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell

CNCB
January 12, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Jerome Powell

Stock futures fell Monday after the Department of Justice opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, an apparent escalation by President Trump in his attempt to pressure the central bank. …Trump’s call to cap credit card rates for one year at 10% was also causing some market indigestion. …Powell confirmed in an unusual direct video statement Sunday evening that federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation related to his Senate Banking Committee testimony. Powell said the investigation was another attempt by Trump to influence the central bank’s monetary policy and he would not bow to the pressure. His term as chair is up in May. “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or whether instead, monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation,” said Powell in the statement.

In related coverage: 

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Growth for Custom Home Building

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
January 12, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

NAHB’s analysis of Census Data survey indicates year-over year growth for custom home builders amid broader single-family home building weakness. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building but is more sensitive to changes in household wealth and stock prices. With spec home building down and the stock market up, custom building is gaining market share. There were 51,000 total custom building starts during the third quarter of 2025. This was up 6% relative to the third quarter of 2024. Over the last four quarters, custom housing starts totaled 187,000 homes, a 5% increase compared to the prior four quarter total (178,000). Currently, the market share of custom home building, based on a one-year moving average, is more than 19% of total single-family starts. 

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US housing starts fell 4.6% in October

The US Census Bureau
January 9, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for October 2025. Privately owned housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,246,000 in October 2025. This was down 4.6% from September’s revised rate of 1,306,000 and 7.8% below the October 2024 level of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts rose to a SAAR of 874,000 in October, up 5.4% from the revised September rate of 829,000. …Building permits were at a SAAR of 1,412,000 in October, down 0.2% from the revised September rate of 1,415,000 and 1.1% below the October 2024 level of 1,428,000.

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US single-family housing starts rebound in October, total starts fell 4.6%

By Lucia Mutikani
Reuters
January 9, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON — US single-family homebuilding rebounded in October, but permits for future construction eased, signaling caution among builders as new housing inventory remains high and demand soft. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 874,000 units in October, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Friday. Starts dropped to a pace of 829,000 units in September from a 869,000-unit pace in August. The reports were delayed by the 43-day government shutdown. …Permits for future single-family homebuilding fell 0.5% to a rate of 876,000 units in October. They increased to a pace of 880,000 units in September from a 858,000-unit rate in August.

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US Consumer Confidence Dropped to Lowest since Tariffs Introduced

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
January 8, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Consumer confidence in December fell to the lowest level since April’s tariff implementation, reflective of growing concerns about reignited inflation and a weakening labor market affecting personal finances. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing job as plentiful and hard-to-get, continued to narrow and is now at its lowest level since February 2021. This is consistent with recent job reports showing fewer job openings and slower hiring. The decline in confidence stands in contrast to the recent solid GDP report for the third quarter. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 92.9 to 89.1 in December, the lowest level since April. …Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions deteriorated in December. …Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of the labor market cooled further in December. 

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US Mortgage Rates End 2025 at the Lowest Level of the Year

By Catherine Koh
NAHB Eye on Housing
January 6, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Long-term mortgage rates have been declining since mid- 2025 and ended the year at their lowest level since September 2024. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% in December, 5 basis points (bps) lower than November. Meanwhile, the 15-year rate declined 3 bps to 5.48%. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year rate is lower by about half a percentage point, or 53 basis points (bps). The 15-year rate is also lower by 45 bps. …Falling lower mortgage rates have started to translate into gains as existing home sales edged up slightly in November. However, this increase remains limited as mortgage rates above 6% are still considered elevated. Nonetheless, as financing costs continue decline, more households are likely to reenter the housing market. …NAHB expects the 30-year mortgage rate to average 6.17% in 2026 and would reach 6% by 2027.

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US consumer confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month

The Conference Board
January 1, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1, from 92.9 in November. …The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—plummeted by 9.5 points to 116.8 in December. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—held steady at 70.7. The Expectations Index has now tracked under 80 for 11 consecutive months, the threshold below which the gauge signals recession ahead. The cutoff for preliminary results was December 16, 2025. “Despite an upward revision in November related to the end of the shutdown, consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak. Four of five components of the overall index fell, while one was at a level signaling notable weakness,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist.

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ResourceWise’s 2026 Pulp, Paper, and Forest Products Industry Predictions

By Pete Stewart and Matt Elhardt
ResourceWise Forest Products Blog
January 6, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The pulp, paper, and forest products industry endured another year of uncertainty and significant change in 2025. From new tariffs and widespread mill closures to persistent overseas overcapacity, the market experienced profound and ongoing transformation. …Below are seven predictions we believe will shape the pulp, paper, and forest products industry in 2026.

  • Supply Chain Transparency Will Deepen Despite Regulatory Delays
  • Chinese Overcapacity and Exports Will Reshape Global Trade and Pricing
  • Carbon Ownership Will Become a Major Source of Value and Conflict
  • Financial Stress Will Accelerate Consolidation and Privatization
  • Lumber Markets Will Remain Under Pressure Until Capacity Exits
  • Containerboard Markets Will Tighten in Late 2026, While Paperboard Struggles
  • Latin American Buyers Will Gain an Advantage in US Asset Acquisitions

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US Lumber Capacity Lower Midway Through 2025

By Jesse Wade
The NAHB Eye on Housing
December 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US sawmill production has remained essentially flat over the past two years, according to the Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production report. This most recent data release contained an annual revision, which resulted in higher estimates for both production and capacity in US sawmills. This revision shows current levels above 2017 by 7.5%. This revision also leads to an increased production capacity estimate, now peaking in the fourth quarter of 2024, and exceeding the capacity level seen in the early 2010s. …The utilization rate has experienced an overall downward trend since 2017 as a result of added capacity, yet stagnant production. However, the second quarter of 2025, on a four-quarter moving average, experienced a slight uptick from 66.5% to 68.1%. Meanwhile, sawmill production, based on a four-quarter moving average, is 0.9% higher in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter. However, sawmill production remains just 0.3% above 2023 levels.

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US Inflation Slows in November (with a Caveat)

By Fan-Yu Kuo
The NAHB Eye on Housing
December 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US inflation unexpectedly eased in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) latest report. This data release was originally scheduled for December 10 but was delayed due to the recent government shutdown. While most indexes showed deceleration, this report does not necessarily prove a downward trend in inflation due to missing October data and incomplete November collection. December’s report may be more pivotal for markets and the Fed. The recent government shutdown disrupted data collection for many macroeconomic indicators including the CPI. …Though inflation is expected to peak in the first quarter of 2026, the Fed is likely to continue easing given signs of labor market weakening. The housing market’s sensitivity to interest rates suggests rate cuts could help ease the affordability crisis and support housing supply even as builders continue to face supply-side challenges.

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Lumber Market Navigates Choppy Waters Amid Softening Demand and Price Volatility

MarketMinute in the Chronicle Journal
December 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The recent softening demand and prices in the lumber market represent a critical inflection point, marking a transition from unprecedented volatility to a more complex, albeit somewhat stabilized, environment. The key takeaway is that while the extreme highs of the pandemic era are behind us, lumber prices have established a new, elevated baseline, significantly impacting housing affordability and construction costs. This recalibration is driven by a delicate balance of oversupply in some segments, subdued but potentially recovering demand, and persistent supply-side challenges, including increased tariffs on Canadian imports and ongoing labor shortages. …The lasting impact of this period will likely be a more resilient and adaptable construction industry. …The market is not returning to its pre-pandemic state; rather, it is evolving into a new equilibrium where strategic foresight and agility will be paramount for success.

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Building Material Dealers continue credit card swipe-fee battle

The HBS Dealer
December 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

As 2025 comes to a close, the National Lumber & Building Material Dealers Association (NLBMDA) continues to advance advocacy efforts to address the growing burden of credit card swipe fees on lumber and building material dealers and the entire merchant community. This month, on Capitol Hill and in the courts, NLBMDA has been actively engaged in efforts to reform the broken credit card payment system that allows Visa and Mastercard to set interchange fees with little transparency, competition, or accountability. For many dealers, these fees now rank among the largest operating expenses, often surpassing costs such as utilities or equipment. Swipe fees have more than doubled over the past decade and have increased by roughly 70 percent since the onset of the pandemic, reaching a record $187.2 billion in 2024. During the current holiday season alone, credit card swipe fees are projected to generate more than $20 billion for Visa and Mastercard.

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US Job Market Shows Signs of Cooling in November

By Jing Fu
NAHB Eye on Housing
December 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In November, job growth slowed, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level in four years. At the same time, job gains for the previous two months (August and September) were revised downward. The November’s jobs report indicates a cooling labor market as the economy heads into the final month of the year. In November, wage growth slowed, increasing 3.5% year over year, down 0.6 percentage points from a year ago. Wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases. …Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 28,000 in November, after an upwardly revised 25,000 gain in September. Within the industry, residential construction shed 300 jobs, while non-residential construction gained 28,800 positions. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in November. …The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction remains negative at -3,600 per month.

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Builder Sentiment Inches Higher but Ends the Year in Negative Territory

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
December 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Builder confidence inched higher to end the year but still remains well into negative territory as builders continue to grapple with rising construction costs, tariff and economic uncertainty, and many potential buyers remaining on the sidelines due to affordability concerns. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 39 in December. Sentiment levels were below the breakeven point of 50 every month in 2025 and ranged in the high 30s in the final quarter of the year. …In positive signs for the market, builders report that future sales expectations have been above the key breakeven level of 50 for the past three months and the recent easing of monetary policy should help builder loan conditions at the start of 2026. However, builders continue to face supply-side headwinds, as regulatory costs and material prices remain stubbornly high. Rising inventory also has increased competition for newly built homes.

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US labor market lost 41,000 jobs over October, November; unemployment rate up

By Jeff Cox
CNBC News
December 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Nonfarm payrolls grew slightly more than expected in November but slumped in October while unemployment hit its highest in four years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday in numbers delayed by the government shutdown. Job growth totaled a seasonally adjusted 64,000 for the month, better than the Dow Jones estimate of 45,000 and up from a sharp decline in October. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, more than expected and its highest level since September 2021. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons swelled to 8.7%, its peak going back to August 2021. In addition to the November report, the BLS released an abbreviated October count that showed payrolls down 105,000. While there was no official estimate, Wall Street economists were largely expecting a decline following a surprise increase of 108,000 in September.

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US Fed lowers interest rates but future cuts uncertain

By Danielle Kaye
BBC News
December 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Jerome Powell

The US Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates for the third time this year, even as internal divisions create uncertainty about additional cuts in the coming months. The central bank said on Wednesday it was lowering the target for its key lending rate by 0.25 percentage points, putting it in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% – its lowest level in three years. …The Fed’s economic projections released on Wednesday suggest one rate cut will take place next year, although new data could change this. Fed chair Jerome Powell said central bankers needed time to see how the Fed’s three cuts this year work their way through the US economy. …The Fed is facing a “very challenging situation” as it confronts risks of rising inflation and unemployment, Powell said, adding: “You can’t do two things at once”. The decision to lower rates on Wednesday was not unanimous, suggesting widening divisions over the outlook for the US economy.

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No Risk-Free Path: Fed Eases Monetary Policy

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
December 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The central bank cut rates a third and final time in 2025, reducing the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. This reduction will help reduce financing costs of builder and developer loans. …The tone of today’s meeting was more dovish than investors expected. Overall, the Fed faces a complicated outlook with risks on both sides of its dual mandate. …The slightly dovish stance suggests the bank perceives greater near-term downside risk for the labor market component of its mandate, despite an improving outlook for GDP growth. …Looking forward, the Fed’s outlook for the economy and monetary policy is mixed. Estimates from the central bank… indicate an expectation of stronger economic growth next year, with a 2026 2.3% fourth quarter year-over-year growth rate. This is an upward revision compared to the 1.8% estimate from September. The SEP estimates also reveal an expectation of a 4.4% unemployment rate in 2026 and decline for inflation (core PCE) of 2.4%, relative to 2.9% in 2025. 

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Home Depot Shares Fall as Retailer Gives Guarded Fiscal 2026 Forecast

By Kelly Cloonan
The Wall Street Journal
December 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

ATLANTA — Home Depot gave a cautious outlook for fiscal 2026 as the housing market continues to lag. Shares of the home-improvement retailer fell 2.4% to $341.62 in premarket trading on Tuesday. The company expects sales to rise between 2.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026, the midpoint of which is up from its guidance for 3% growth this fiscal year. Analysts polled by FactSet were looking for growth of 4.5%. …Home Depot said it expects those metrics to rise at a faster clip if the housing market gains momentum and there is increased spend on larger projects, driven by pent-up demand. The Atlanta company’s market-recovery case forecasts sales will grow about 5% to 6%, earnings per share will increase about mid- to high-single digits and comparable sales will be up 4% to 5%. “We believe that the pressures in housing will correct and provide the home improvement market with support for growth faster than the general economy”.

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The US Fed meeting is likely to feature a rate cut and a lot more

By Jeff Cox
CNBC News
December 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The US Federal Reserve is poised to deliver its third straight interest rate cut Wednesday, while simultaneously firing a warning shot about what’s ahead. Following a period of remarkable indecision about which way central bank policymakers would lean, markets have settled on a quarter-percentage point reduction. If that’s the case, it will take the Fed’s key interest rate down to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. However, there are complications. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is split between members who favor cuts as a way to head off further weakness in the labor market and those who think easing has gone far enough and threatens to aggravate inflation. That’s why the term “hawkish cut” has become the buzzy term for this meeting. In market parlance, it refers to a Fed that will reduce, but deliver a message that no one should be holding their breath for the next one.

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US Mortgage Rates Continue to Trend Lower in November

By Onnah Dereski
NAHB Eye on Housing
December 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The average mortgage rate in November continued to trend lower to its lowest level in over a year. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.24% in November, 2 basis points (bps) lower than in October. Meanwhile, the 15-year rate increased 3 bps to 5.51%. Both the 30-year and 15-year rates remain lower than a year ago, dropping by 57 bps and 52 bps year-over-year, respectively. …Falling mortgage rates have shown some impact on housing activity. Mortgage application activity continues to strengthen, led by increases in adjustable-rate mortgages and refinancing applications. Additionally, existing home sales rose to an eight-month high in October. There is no data available for new home sales in October due to the government shutdown.

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US Consumer sentiment lifted 2.3 index points in early December

By Joanne Hsu, Director
The University of Michigan
December 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Consumer sentiment lifted 2.3 index points in early December, within the margin of error. This month’s increase was concentrated primarily among younger consumers. Overall, while views of current conditions were little changed, expectations improved, led by a 13% rise in expected personal finances, with improvements visible across age, income, education, and political affiliation. Still, December’s reading on expected personal finances is nearly 12% below the beginning of the year. Similarly, labor market expectations improved a touch but remained relatively dismal. Consumers see modest improvements from November on a few dimensions, but the overall tenor of views is broadly somber, as consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices. 

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October Southern Pine Lumber Exports Report

The Southern Forest Products Association
January 27, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

Southern Pine lumber exports (treated and untreated) are almost equal to 2024 year to date through October 2025 at 488 MMBF, according to October 2025 data from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services’ Global Agricultural Trade System. October 2025’s 60 MMBF of exports were up 47% over October 2024 and up 33% compared to September 2025. When looking at the report by dollar value, Southern Pine exports are up 4% YTD ($190 million) compared to 2024. Meanwhile, the October value of $25 million is the highest mark since June 2022, when the value hit $29 million. Mexico leads the way YTD 2025 at $56 million, followed by the Dominican Republic at $39 million, and India at $18 million. Treated lumber exports, meanwhile, are down 4% through the first 10 months of the year compared to 2024. The Leeward-Windward Islands market leads the way through October at $18 million, followed by Jamaica at $16 million, and Belize at $10 million. Softwood lumber imports are running 8% behind 2024 levels.

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Tariffs have created a challenging operating environment for home builders and their suppliers

By Daniel Kline
The Street
December 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: US East

“President Donald Trump’s tariffs could increase builder costs anywhere from $7,500 to $10,000 per home,” said Rob Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders… Last year, the NAHB estimated that every $1,000 increase in the median price of a new home prices out roughly 106,000 potential buyers. The biggest impact has been felt in lumber prices, which are expected to total about $4,900 per home on average. …about a third of the wood purchased for homebuilding comes from Canada. Domestic lumber producers generally raise their prices to match import prices. …major players like Home Depot are better able to mitigate and predict rising and volatile prices than smaller retailers. North American Builder’s Supply, based in Illinois, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. …“Over 50% of our inventory is not part of tariffs and is obviously sourced domestically,” Home Depot Executive Vice President William Bastek shared.

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Southern Yellow Pine futures: Seven essential insights on hedging lumber risk

By Dustin Jalbert
RISI Fastmarkets
December 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) is moving to the beat of its own drum. While lumber markets have historically moved in tandem, recent data shows SYP prices are decoupling from other species like Spruce-Pine-Fir (SPF). In a post-pandemic market, the correlation between SYP and SPF has plummeted from over 80% to nearly zero. This fundamental shift underscores the growing need for a dedicated hedging tool for the world’s fastest-growing lumber market. Fastmarkets recently partnered with CME Group for the “Hedging Lumber Risk” webinar. Here are seven key takeaways:

  1. SYP is now the largest and fastest-growing North American lumber market
  2. The SYP market is decoupling from the rest of the lumber complex
  3. A massive supply shift is underway, favoring the US South
  4. Unprecedented SYP capacity growth is creating market pressure
  5. SYP’s growth is heavily tied to the southeastern US real estate market
  6. The new CME SYP futures contract offers a dedicated hedging tool
  7. SYP futures provide price discovery and risk management, not speculation

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Japan Housing Starts Fall to 62-Year Low in 2025

Nippon.com
January 30, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Tokyo — Housing starts in Japan fell 6.5% from the previous year to 740,667 units in 2025, down for the third straight year and hitting a 62-year low, the land ministry said Friday. The drop reflected deterioration in consumer sentiment amid rising prices, as well as falling demand due to the country’s shrinking population. Of the total, owner-occupied houses dropped 7.7% to 201,285 units, down for the fourth consecutive year. Housing for rent fell 5.0% to 324,991 units, down for the third year in a row. Condominiums and houses for sale decreased 7.6% to 208,169 units, down for the third consecutive year. The results can also be attributed to a law revision in April that led to delays in construction starts for wooden homes with energy-saving features.

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European sawn timber market trends and outlook

By Tuomo Neuvonen
RISI Fastmarkets
January 21, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

European sawn timber markets closed 2025 in a holding pattern, with Nordic exporters navigating persistent structural headwinds amid minimal price movement and cautious buyer sentiment. The December assessment period captured a market characterized by stability rather than recovery. Prices were largely flat across Germany, France, the Benelux region and the United Kingdom, reflecting subdued construction demand, elevated sawlog costs in key producing regions and strategic inventory management by producers and buyers. Even as some specialized sectors showed tentative signs of firming, particularly in engineered wood applications, the broader Nordic export market entered 2026 facing continued pressure from weak end-user activity, ongoing industrial restructuring and lingering macroeconomic uncertainty across the continent. …North American market dynamics: North American softwood sawn timber markets entered 2026 against a backdrop of profound structural challenges and unprecedented trade policy pressures. The most significant development remained the escalation of combined countervailing and anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber.

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Việt Nam’s wood exports reach record $17 billion in value

The Việt Nam News
January 19, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

HÀ NỘI — Despite unprecedented challenges from global markets and the growing impacts of climate change, 2025 marked a historic milestone for Việt Nam’s wood industry, as export turnover of timber and wood products surpassed US$17 billion for the first time. According to data from Việt Nam Customs, exports of timber and wood products reached nearly $1.7 billion in December 2025 alone, bringing total export value for the year to $17.2 billion – an increase of nearly 6 per cent compared with 2024. In 2025, exports of timber and wood products to the US totalled $9.46 billion, up 4.4 per cent year on year and accounting for approximately 55 per cent of the industry’s total export turnover. Việt Nam continued to maintain its position as the largest supplier of wooden furniture to the US market. …Việt Nam’s market share of wooden furniture in the US increased significantly, rising from 40.5 per cent in the first eight months of 2024 to 45.3 per cent in the same period of 2025. 

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Weak global demand hits China’s timber industry

The Sarawak Tribune
January 7, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

KUCHING, Malasia — Chinese timber companies are struggling in their businesses due to insufficient orders for their products amid a weak global market. They have complained about poor demand in the timber market and intense competition in terms of product prices. Adding to their woes are rising raw material costs, according to the key challenges reported in the Global Timber Index-China Index report in November 2025. …To mitigate the challenges, Chinese enterprises suggested the need to expand into international markets to increase the volume of orders for their products, and called for government policy support for their operations. …Back home, China reported strong domestic retail sales of furniture, reaching 17.9 billion yuan in October, a 9.6 per cent increase from a year ago. …In a related development, China reported a robust export market for its particleboard, which surged by 67 per cent in volume.

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Timber imports nudged upwards during Q3, Timber Development UK stats show

By Stephen Powney
The Timber Trades Journal
December 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

New timber import figures covering Q3 2025 reveal an ongoing mixed picture for the sector, with year-to-date volumes still trailing 2024 but showing some signs of improvement as the year progressed. The latest statistics from Timber Development UK (TDUK) confirm that total imports in the first nine months of 2025 reached 7.01 million m³ – some 2.1% below the 7.15 million m³ recorded in the same period of 2024. This gap has narrowed since the half-year point, however, when volumes were down by 2.9%. This slight uplift has been driven by a need to replenish stocks after the flurry of construction activity we saw in Q2. This resulted in a more positive third quarter for imports, when we saw higher volumes than in Q3 2024 across the softwood, hardwood, plywood, OSB and engineered wood product sectors. Overall imports for the quarter were only 0.2% lower than Q3 2024, with a marked drop in MDF imports preventing combined volumes from moving into year-on-year growth. 

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Europe’s lumber market tightens as demand recovers and supply constraints deepen by 2030

By Stephen Powney
The Timber Trades Journal
December 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

The latest Global Wood Trends report – Softwood Lumber – Tariffs, Turbulence and New Trade Flows to 2030 – says from 2000 to 2024, European lumber output grew slowly at 0.4% per year but still outpaced domestic demand growth. This allowed Europe to expand exports overseas, a trend likely to continue as Russian and Canadian shipments remain constrained. …Production has expanded faster than demand, with exports rising from 10% of output in 2009 to 19% in 2024. Growth has been concentrated in Northern and Central Europe — led by Sweden, Finland, Germany, and Austria — where harvest levels are now close to structural limits. …Global Wood Trends concluded that Europe’s lumber market is entering a period of tightening supply and gradually recovering demand. While production growth is expected to shift toward Northern and Eastern Europe, overall expansion will be limited by structural harvest constraints in Central Europe. Stronger domestic consumption, combined with potentially higher US demand will likely support higher prices for logs and lumber. 

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Sweden’s forestry sector sees sharpest decline since 2020 as overall agricultural confidence weakens

The Lesprom Network
December 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Sweden’s Green Business Index declined in the fourth quarter of 2025 as forestry and crop farming weakened, according to data from the Federation of Swedish Farmers. The total index fell to 100.7 from 106.5 in the previous quarter, marking a broad slowdown across several agricultural industries. The forestry subindex recorded the largest fall, dropping by 19 points to 97.6, its lowest level since spring 2020. The decline reflects weaker export demand, lower prices for sawn wood and pulp, and a soft U.S. dollar that reduced export revenues. New tariffs on Swedish wood products to the United States and a slower global economy further limited profitability. LRF reports that sawmills and pulp producers have experienced tightening margins, while forest owners face lower returns and are reducing harvesting activity. 

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