Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Consumer sentiment fell back about 5% in August, declining for the first time in four months. This deterioration largely stems from rising worries about inflation. Buying conditions for durables plunged 14%, its lowest reading in a year, on the basis of high prices. Current personal finances declined modestly amid growing concerns about purchasing power. In contrast, expected personal finances inched up a touch along with a slight firming in income expectations, which remain subdued. Overall, consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April when reciprocal tariffs were announced and then paused. However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future. …Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.5% last month to 4.9% this month… Long-run inflation expectations also lifted from 3.4% in July to 3.9% in August. 

Francis Palasieski

Canadian lumber duties just jumped to 35.19%. …When Canadian prices rise, US mills often raise their own prices in response. …This market behavior reduces negotiating room for dealers and tightens margins no matter where the lumber originates. …There is a prevailing trend unfolding where more architectural and engineering specifications are calling for Canadian SPF. The reason is not quality but differences in grading rules and design values. Canadian SPF and American SPFs are graded differently and are not interchangeable under many construction specifications. This means that when a project specifies Canadian SPF, dealers must supply it to meet the requirement. …The American Building Materials Alliance (ABMA) supports a negotiated resolution to the lumber dispute that addresses unfair trade practices while ensuring stable supply and predictable pricing. …Our outlook is that the current 35.19% duty rate when combined with the preference for Canadian SPF over American SPFs will keep price pressure high.

US Single-family housing permits continued a downhill trend for the sixth month in a row. The continuous decline in single-family permits highlights persistently weak housing demand, tied to affordability challenges like high mortgage rates. Builders appear cautious amid economic uncertainty, labor constraints, and rising inventories. The uptick in multi-family permits suggests a potentially stabilizing trend, though it’s important to note its volatility. The housing market’s mixed signals—weak single-family coupled with some resilience in multi-family—could mean continued drag on residential investment and the broader economy this year. Over the first six months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 485,935. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a decline of 5.6% over the June 2024 level of 514,728. For multifamily, the total number of permits issued nationwide reached 244,812. This is 2.9% higher compared to the June 2024 level of 237,935.

Housing affordability remains a prominent issue, with the median home of a new home at roughly $460,000 and 70% of U.S. households unable to afford a $400,000 home. Tight inventory continues to push up prices for existing homes — which have surpassed the cost of new homes as home builders adapt to affordability challenges by building on smaller lots, constructing smaller homes and offering incentives. Even with these adaptations, though, regulations tie in heavily to the cost of new homes and account for nearly 24% of the average final new home price. Permitting and building codes play a role in these costs, as does financing and interest rates.

Real GDP growth rebounded in the second quarter, driven by a turnaround in the trade balance and stronger consumer spending. According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2025, following a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. The latest data from the GDP report suggests that inflationary pressures are easing. The GDP price index rose 2.0% for the second quarter, down from a 3.8% increase in the first quarter of 2025. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which measures inflation (or deflation) across various consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior, rose 2.1% in the second quarter. This is down from a 3.7% increase in the first quarter of 2025. This quarter’s increase in real GDP primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and increases in consumer spending.

US mills consumed more recycled paper in 2024 compared to 2023 while exports decrease. The American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) recently announced its annual paper recycling rates, with 60%-64% of paper and 69%-74% of cardboard available for recovery being recycled in the United States in 2024. Paper continues to be one of the highest recycled materials in America, supported by successful recycling systems throughout the country. In 2024 alone, 46 million tons of paper was recycled in the U.S., which equates to 125,000 tons of recycled paper being turned into new, essential products like cardboard boxes, paper packaging, and toilet paper every day. …US mills used 1.29 million more tons of recycled paper to make new products in 2024 – that’s 32.7 million tons compared to 31.3 million tons in 2023.

In 2024, 73% of new single-family homes started were built on slab foundations, according to NAHB analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC). Although this was a modest year-over-year increase of 0.6 percentage points, it continues the upward trend in slab adoption, widening the gap between slabs and other foundation types. In comparison, basements (full or partial) accounted for 17% of new homes, while crawl spaces made up just 9.2%.

US President Trump’s administration could kick off initial public offerings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac later this year, according to a senior administration official, marking a key milestone for the mortgage finance giants that have been under government control for years. The share sales could value Fannie and Freddie at nearly $500 billion combined, the official said. The deal would be an important turning point for the companies, which have been under federal conservatorship since 2008. The administration has been talking to banks about the potential share sale but has not formally appointed one to lead the process. Fannie and Freddie were created by Congress to support the housing market by ensuring affordable mortgage financing, but crumbled after being severely bruised during the financial crisis. …Over the years, efforts to return them to private control have continued, including under Trump’s first term, but have failed to get traction.

The impact of President Trump’s tariffs on consumer prices is just getting started, according to research by Goldman Sachs Group, adding more uncertainty to a Treasury market that has been gripped by shifting bets on the pace of interest rate cuts. US companies have so far taken the bulk of the hit but the burden will increasingly be passed on to consumers as companies hike prices, economists including Jan Hatzius wrote. Consumers in the US have absorbed an estimated 22% of tariff costs through June, but their share will rise to 67% if the latest tariffs follow the pattern of levies in previous years, they wrote. The net result: faster inflation. The core personal consumer expenditure index, one of the Federal Reserve’s favorite measures of inflation, will hit 3.2% year-on-year in December. They said underlying inflation net of tariffs would be 2.4%. The rate was 2.8% in June.

Confidence in the market increased for multifamily developers in the second quarter of 2025, according to the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) released the NAHB. The MMS produces two separate indices. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) was up two points year-over-year to 46. The Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 82, up one point year-over-year. Multifamily developer confidence experienced a slight increase compared to last year, most notably from the subsidized subcomponent. This is due in part to optimism surrounding the expansion of federal affordable housing resources flowing from the recent congressional reconciliation bill. However, high interest rates, rising construction costs, limited land availability and restrictive local regulations are still significant issues in certain parts of the country. 

American housing market is facing a persistent shortage. Home prices have reached historic highs and affordability has declined. Normally, in response to higher prices, housing supply would increase. However, new home construction has not kept pace with population growth and household formation. Recent research has claimed that the relationship between prices and supply has become diluted over time because of regulatory barriers and political dynamics.  A recent working paper “America’s Housing Supply Problem: the Closing of the Suburban Frontier?” by economist Edward Glaser and Joseph Gyourko, took a deep dive into why the supply of new housing has shifted lower. …This research showed that the once-strong link between increasing home prices and new home constructions has weakened or even reversed in many metro areas. …The striking finding of this new analysis is that the traditional engine of home building in the South is weakening.

At the conclusion of its July meeting, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee once again held the federal funds rate constant at a top rate of 4.5%. However, two members of the committee dissented from the decision, the largest number of dissenting votes since 1993. Moreover, some economic data – including a slowing housing market – are pointing to a need to resume normalizing the federal funds rate from its current, restrictive stance. In particular, Chair Powell noted in his press conference that the “housing market remains weak” and policy is “modestly restrictive.” NAHB is forecasting two rate reductions before the end of the year, including one at the next Fed meeting in September.