The Bank of Canada’s latest survey of financial-market participants pointed to a modestly brighter growth outlook than the central bank’s own projections, even as trade tensions with the US remain the dominant threat hanging over Canada’s economy and housing market. In the fourth‑quarter Market Participants Survey, 93% of respondents cited an “increase in trade tensions” as the top downside risk to Canadian growth, well ahead of tighter global financial conditions and weaker consumer spending. Participants still assign a 20% probability to a recession over the next six months, but their median forecast calls for real GDP growth of 1.6% by the end of 2026 and 1.9% by late 2027, slightly stronger than the Bank’s own projections of 1.1% and 1.5%. While the survey suggests some stabilization in expectations, it underscores that tariff policy remains the key macroeconomic swing factor. …PwC Canada’s latest survey among 133 CEOs showed that only 27% expect the domestic economy to improve over the next 12 months.
Lumber futures slipped below $590 per thousand board feet, the lowest level in nearly four weeks, as housing demand weakened and earlier restocking momentum faded. Demand softened as financing costs edged higher and housing activity cooled, with US pending home sales plunging 9.3% month on month in December 2025, removing a key source of construction and renovation related wood consumption ahead of the spring building season. At the same time, mills continued running to rebuild inventories after the winter squeeze, increasing physical availability while distributors reported quieter order books. The combination of softer demand and rising availability encouraged position unwinds after January’s rally, with falling volumes and open interest amplifying the price decline. [END]
Canada’s housing and homelessness crisis touches nearly every Canadian. Over the past decade, while federal housing spending has increased, affordability has worsened for all but the wealthiest, and homelessness is surging. Despite recent declines in housing prices and rents, unsheltered homelessness is still up 300% since 2018, according to the most recent national point-in-time count. The country has a narrow but historic window to tackle this crisis and rebuild our housing system so it delivers at the speed, scale and affordability this moment demands. …Federal action alone won’t get us there. Provinces and territories control the planning systems, development-charge frameworks, zoning rules, supportive housing, health services and income supports. …That is why we need a Canada Housing Accord. [Tim Richter is the chief executive of the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness and Tyler Meredith is a senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy]
RUSS TAYLOR provided the latest quarterly report from the 
MONTREAL — Tariffs and economic angst delivered a significant blow to Canadian National Railway Co. last year, as the question mark hanging over North American free trade continues to threaten profits in 2026. “Tariffs, trade uncertainty and volatility impacted our full-year 2025 revenues by over $350 million,” chief commercial officer Janet Drysdale told analysts on a conference call Friday. Forest products and metals took the biggest bruising, she said, with the two segments seeing a year-over-year revenue drop of eight and four per cent, respectively, in the latest quarter. …On top of trade uncertainty, a less publicized source of angst has rippled through the rail industry since last summer. Union Pacific Corp., the second-largest railway operator in the United States, announced in July it wants to buy Norfolk Southern Corp. in a US$85-billion deal that would create that country’s first transcontinental railway, and potentially trigger a final wave of rail mergers across North America.
Canada’s economy could gain nearly 7%, or $210 billion, in real GDP over a gradual period by fully removing internal trade barriers between the country’s 13 provinces and territories, according to a report published Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). On average, regulation-related barriers are the equivalent of a 9% tariff nationally, estimates the report, which was co-authored by IMF researchers Federico J. Diez and Yuanchen Yang with contributions from University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe. …Because of the trade barriers between provinces, “Canada isn’t really one economy. It’s really 10 economies,” said Alicia Planincic, director of policy and economics at the Business Council of Alberta in Calgary. …The report points to finance, telecom, transportation and professional services as far-reaching sectors that “ripple through the economy” and raise costs for all of the businesses they touch. 
In November, the volume of cargo carried by Canadian railways was up slightly (+0.5%) from November 2024 to 31.4 million tonnes. Higher volumes of intermodal shipments (mainly containers) as well as higher carloadings of wheat largely contributed to the increase in November 2025. The overall freight volume in November was on par with the five-year average of 31.5 million tonnes for the month. …Growth in non-intermodal freight loadings in November was moderated by declines in several commodities. Loadings of other oil seeds and nuts, and other agricultural products were down sharply by 35.4% (-312 000 tonnes) year over year—the largest drop in tonnage since December 2018. In November 2025, loadings of iron ores and concentrates decreased 6.4% (-287 000 tonnes) compared with November 2024, while loadings of lumber were down 22.1% (-143 000 tonnes), a fourth consecutive month of year-over-year decline.
TORONTO — The review of North America’s free trade agreement will play a large part in determining the trajectory of the Canadian economy, as one strategist says he is optimistic that certain concessions could help achieve a positive outcome. Ashish Dewan, a senior investment strategist at Vanguard, said the Canadian economy is still significantly reliant on US trade despite attempts to diversify its trading partners. He said Canada currently has a “trade advantage,” due to a lower effective tariff rate compared with other nations, sitting around six per cent compared with about 16 to 19 per cent faced by other nations. “What’s really having a negative impact on the Canadian economy are those Section 232 sectoral tariffs,” Dewan said. Tariffs covered by Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act of 1962 cover a wide range of products like steel, aluminum and lumber and are generally not exempt under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, better known as CUSMA.
Canada’s six largest CMAs recorded a 3.9% rise in housing starts in 2025, driven by a 58% jump in Montréal and record starts in Calgary and Edmonton, while Toronto fell 31% and Vancouver slipped 3%, CMHC said. CMHC said the metro gains helped lift the national annual total for all areas in Canada to 259,028 housing starts in 2025, up 5.6% from 245,367 in 2024 and ranking as the fifth highest annual total on record. …The year-over-year increase was driven by a second consecutive year of record rental housing starts, which made up just over half of all housing starts in Canada’s urban centres, CMHC said. …Among Canada’s three largest cities, CMHC said all posted year-over-year increases in December. Toronto recorded a 151% increase, driven by higher multi-unit starts. Montréal posted a 123% increase, driven by higher starts across all dwelling types. Vancouver reported a +17% increase, also driven by multi-unit starts.
VANCOUVER, BC – Canfor Pulp Products announced the expiration of the go-shop period provided for in the previously announced arrangement agreement dated December 3, 2025 between Canfor Pulp and Canfor Corporation, pursuant to which Canfor Corp will acquire all of Canfor Pulp’s issued and outstanding common shares not already owned by Canfor Corp and its affiliates. Under the terms of the Arrangement Agreement, each shareholder of Canfor Pulp will have the option to receive: 0.0425 of a common share of Canfor Corp per Canfor Pulp Share held, or $0.50 in cash per Canfor Pulp Share held. …During the Go-Shop Period, Canfor Pulp was permitted to actively solicit, evaluate and enter into negotiations with third parties that expressed an interest in acquiring Canfor Pulp. …The Go-Shop Period expired on January 19, 2026. Canfor Pulp did not receive any Acquisition Proposals.
Long-term mortgage rates continued to decline in January. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.10% last month, 9 basis points (bps) lower than December. Meanwhile, the 15-year rate declined 4 bps to 5.44%. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year rate is lower by 86 bps. The 15-year rate is also lower by 72 bps. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.20% in January – an increase of 8 bps from the previous month, but remained considerably lower than last year by 43 bps. While mortgage rates typically move in tandem with the treasury yields, the spread between the two narrowed during the month. Reports that the Trump administration encouraged Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to expand purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) boosted demand for MBS, pushing mortgage rates lower. However, treasury yields rose sharply in the final week of January from global and fiscal pressures. 
When it comes to housing affordability, the logic of “build build build” is straightforward enough: Housing is too expensive. If there were more of it, prices would fall. …Homebuilders are even pushing a plan for a million new affordable houses. …Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. The problem of housing affordability is much bigger than insufficient supply; it’s a mismatch with demand. And that demand is driven by income inequality that has seen soaring income growth at the top and tepid growth (or even stagnation) in the middle. In other words: The way to improve housing affordability is to reduce income inequality. …What’s needed are policies that increase income for households at the bottom and middle. Rather than boosting the housing supply in the hope that they benefit, the answer is to fix the labor market to make sure that they do. 
The United States is one of the world’s largest timberland investment markets, with returns driven primarily by land values rather than timber prices, according to Domain Timber Advisors’ timberland market analysis. Timberland values remain strong at the end of 2025, supported by continued appreciation in land values, while timber prices remain relatively flat. …During 2025, Domain underwrites 14 institutional bid events, 54 public listings, and 38 off-market or non-public offerings. By the end of the fourth quarter, the acquisition pipeline consists of 46 deals covering more than 500 thousand acres, providing visibility into pricing dynamics, regional demand shifts, and emerging non-timber value drivers. …Looking ahead, Domain states that renewable energy development and technology infrastructure are expected to expand non-timber revenue opportunities in 2026 and beyond. Alternative timber product markets, including molded fiber products and biomass-to-electricity, are expected to offset part of the pulpwood demand lost due to mill closures and production quotas.
Southern Pine lumber exports (treated and untreated) are almost equal to 2024 year to date through October 2025 at 488 MMBF, according to October 2025 data from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services’ Global Agricultural Trade System. October 2025’s 60 MMBF of exports were up 47% over October 2024 and up 33% compared to September 2025. When looking at the report by dollar value, Southern Pine exports are up 4% YTD ($190 million) compared to 2024. Meanwhile, the October value of $25 million is the highest mark since June 2022, when the value hit $29 million. Mexico leads the way YTD 2025 at $56 million, followed by the Dominican Republic at $39 million, and India at $18 million. Treated lumber exports, meanwhile, are down 4% through the first 10 months of the year compared to 2024. The Leeward-Windward Islands market leads the way through October at $18 million, followed by Jamaica at $16 million, and Belize at $10 million. Softwood lumber imports are running 8% behind 2024 levels.
Russia’s lumber industry is entering a period of sustained pressure as production volumes continue to fall and regulatory risks increase. Official data shows that lumber output declined by more than 2.5% last year, reinforcing concerns across the forestry and wood processing sectors. According to Rosstat, Russia’s lumber production dropped from 29.2 million cubic metres in 2024 to 28.48 million cubic metres in 2025. Output remains well below historical highs. Current production is estimated to be 2 to 3 million cubic metres lower than the 2019 peak of roughly 32 million cubic metres. The downturn reflects structural challenges rather than short-term disruption. Domestic demand has weakened. Export markets have narrowed. Access to European machinery and technology has been reduced. These pressures are being felt across both logging and downstream processing operations. China now absorbs more than 70% of Russia’s lumber exports. …Softwood lumber production fell by 3.5% last year. Output declined to 25.7 million cubic metres. 
