Russ Taylor
Today’s lower prices put BC Interior SPF mills back near break-even levels at current lumber prices and with 14.4% duties, with other Canadian regions looking to be marginally profitable. …In August, Canadian lumber will be subject to elevated US import duties (~34.5%). This factor alone will require Canadian lumber prices in the US market to rise by another 10% – 20%. Any tariffs imposed on Canada and/or other countries will only increase lumber prices further to attract enough imports into the US market. If prices do not rise enough, then expect mill curtailments in BC. …No one knows if or when tariffs could be applied to timber and wood products as well as derivative products from the US Section 232 investigation and what the tariff levels might be by country. If tariffs are applied, that will cause some major dislocations to the BC and Canadian lumber industry, as higher costs for imported lumber will ultimately cause US lumber prices to rise.
A new Canada-US trade deal will likely carry forward the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement tariff exemptions shielding most Canadian exports from American tariffs, says Deloitte Canada chief economist Dawn Desjardins. …US President Donald Trump has set July 9 as the deadline for countries to ink a trade deal in order to avoid his “Liberation Day” tariffs. For Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump agreed on the sidelines of the recent G7 meeting in Alberta to strike a deal by July 21. “Our baseline view assumes that at a minimum, we continue to operate with our CUSMA carve-outs. “The sounds we’re hearing seem to be moving in the right direction. Obviously, I have no inside information. It’s just an assumption that we will not be severely hit by 25 per cent tariffs across the board.” …Deloitte Canada’s latest economic forecast, published on Wednesday, calls for a “modest recession” in the second and third quarters of the year. 
Lumber futures traded below $610 per thousand board feet, easing from two-month highs of $626 seen June 13th, driven by improving supply while demand slowed. This pullback reflects a temporary surge in supply as sawmills and wholesalers restocked early-season safety stocks, while builders delayed purchases after earlier buying . The decline also stems from softer demand: high mortgage rates continue to suppress new house builds and remodeling activity, with treaters and end-users scaling back orders. Although longer-term forecasts expect a pickup in Q3, driven by renewed tariff pressure and projected housing recovery, the current correction is supply-led, driven by modest restocking, seasonal slowdown, and rate-constrained construction spending. [END]›
The annual pace of inflation held steady at 1.7% in May as cooling shelter costs helped tame price pressures, Statistics Canada said. Shelter costs rose three per cent in May, StatCan said, marking a slowdown from 3.4% in April. The agency singled out Ontario as the major source of rent relief in the country. …Mortgage interest costs meanwhile decelerated for the 21st consecutive month amid lower interest rates from the Bank of Canada. Economists had broadly expected inflation would remain unchanged heading into Tuesday. The removal of the consumer carbon price continues to drive down gasoline costs annually, StatCan said. …Inflation excluding tax changes – stripping out influences from the carbon price removal – was also steady at 2.3 per cent last month. …The central bank’s closely watched core inflation metrics meanwhile ticked down a tenth of a percentage point to three per cent in May.
As Ottawa bets big on EVs and batteries, core manufacturers in sectors like lumber, metal and machinery are left fighting uphill battles at home. Among his various and sometimes conflicting economic objectives, Donald Trump has identified revitalizing manufacturing as a priority. He has railed against the decline in factory jobs — a complaint that overlooks the jump in U.S. manufacturing employment since 2015 but does reflect the fact that manufacturing today accounts for a significantly smaller share of U.S. jobs than it did 30 years ago. Canadian policymakers have also been paying more attention to manufacturing, particularly since the 2020-21 COVID shock highlighted the country’s vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. Unfortunately, Ottawa’s preferred game-plan has been to dole out vast taxpayer-funded subsidies to politically favoured segments: Electric vehicles, batteries and clean-tech products.
Lumber futures rose past $610 per thousand board feet, a ten-week high, as steady construction activity met tightening supply and mounting trade barriers. US homebuilding remains steady with single-family starts flat at 1.36 million units in April and permits edging lower, while Canadian multi-unit starts jumped 34%, keeping mill orders firm. Canadian harvests are constrained by pine-beetle infestations, prairie wildfires that have burned more than 200,000 hectares this spring and strict cut limits that left British Columbia nearly 42% below its allowable quota in 2023. In the US, sawmill utilization stalled in the mid-70% range despite recent capacity additions. Tariffs of roughly 14.5% on Canadian softwood, along with threats of higher levies, have discouraged cross-border shipments, while major exporters divert supply to Asian and European markets. Elevated fuel and transportation costs further raise delivered prices.
VANCOUVER, BC
This week was supposed to mark the deadline for other countries to strike trade deals with the US — or face tariffs of up to 49% on the goods they sell in the United States. President Trump is still threatening sky-high import taxes, but he has pushed back the effective date to Aug. 1, sowing even more uncertainty. Here’s an update on where Trump’s tariff policy stands, from which tariffs he has in place to which countries are currently affected. A 10% tariff applies to just about everything the US imports. …Higher tariffs on tap for other countries — maybe. …China already has a higher tariff after tit-for-tat retaliations. …The European Union could also face stiffer tariffs. …Mexico and Canada face special scrutiny. …The U.K. and Vietnam are the only two countries with deals in place. …Separate tariffs apply to steel, aluminum and autos. …But tariffs also face a legal challenge.
The top ten builders captured a record 44.7% of all new US single-family home closings in 2024, up 2.4 percentage points from 2023 (42.3%). This is the highest share ever captured by the top ten builders since NAHB began tracking BUILDER magazine data on new single-family home closings in 1989. The 2024 share constitutes 306,932 closings out of 686,000 new single-family houses sold in 2024. However, closings by the top 10 builders only represent 30.1% of new single-family home completions, a wider measure of home building that covers not-for-sale home construction. Also of note, the top 15 builders accounted for more than half of all closings (51%) for the first time ever in 2024.
WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae published the results of its June 2025 
Lumber from Canada? That will be another $534. Major appliances from China? Add a cool $445. New homes in the United States are set to get more expensive thanks to President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, which is expected to raise the costs of a wide variety of materials that go into building houses. An NBC News analysis of building materials and import data found that the total cost of building a mid-range single-family home could rise by more than $4,000 — an estimate that industry experts who reviewed the analysis called conservative. An April survey from the National Association of Home Builders estimated tariff impacts at $10,900 per home. Neither analysis included labor costs. Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, said the tariffs have an impact beyond their direct cost as they send uncertainty rippling through the supply chain and leave builders unsure how to plan for the future.
New Zealand has a strong story to tell about free trade, farming and renewable forestry resources. …Given the healthy relationship between the US and New Zealand on the trade front, the temporary relief of tariffs on timber and lumber imported into the US has been welcomed. Though we realise that this tariff exemption could be short lived based on the outcome of the Section 232 investigation aimed at determining the global effects imports of timber, lumber and their derivative products have on the US supply chain. As a small niche supplier of wood products that are needed by the US domestic building market, there is a strong argument for keeping New Zealand timber and lumber imports tariff free to avoid any additional price hikes and further supply chain disruptions. …Like many, we now wait for completion of the section. 232 Investigation.
The US economy contracted in the beginning of the year at a much faster pace than previously reported, after new data factored in much weaker consumer spending. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered an annualized rate of -0.5% from January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate. That’s worse than the 0.2% decline reported in the second estimate. …The latest estimate showed that consumer spending — the lifeblood of the US economy — was tepid in the beginning of the year. Spending in the first quarter grew at a rate of just 0.5%, down from 1.2% in an earlier estimate. That’s the weakest rate in more than four years. …Economic data released Thursday provides a clearer picture how the US economy has fared in the face of Trump’s policy shifts, which includes fresh figures on new applications for unemployment benefits, and mortgage rates.
Construction of new homes fell 9.8% in May, as builders pulled back amid waning demand from home buyers. Housing starts fell to a 1.26 million annual pace from 1.39 million the previous month, the government said. The annual pace refers to how many houses would be built over an entire year if May’s rate of construction were to continue. The pace of home building is down to the lowest level since May 2020 — during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. New-home construction is down 4.6% from the same period a year ago. Building permits, a sign of future construction, also fell 2% from the previous month to a 1.39 million rate. Builders have slowed down the construction of new homes primarily due to a pullback in buyer demand. Rising inventory levels and weak buyer demand have resulted in homes sitting longer on the market. More builders are also resorting to home prices to encourage buyers.
Congressional Republicans have passed their domestic policy bill that makes sweeping changes to entitlement programs like Medicaid and SNAP, significantly increases funding for immigration enforcement efforts and cuts funding for a number of environmental programs. …In Oregon, the impacts of the legislation will be significant. An analysis …found the state would be disproportionately hit by the cuts to Medicaid. The Senate’s version of the bill would also cut funds to the state’s timber counties, and could reshape Oregonian college tuition and student loans. …Oregon will see more logging, less timber money going to local communities and less support for private forest owners. …However much more is logged, Oregon counties will not get a cut. That’s a change from current practice. Many counties in rural areas rely on a cut of revenues from timber sales on federal public lands to pay for schools, law enforcement and public infrastructure.
April 2025 Southern Pine lumber exports (treated and untreated) were up 22.7% over the same month in 2024 at 57.4 MMBF and up 34.8% over March 2025, according to April 2025 data from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services’ Global Agricultural Trade System. Year-to-date exports, however, are running 4% behind the same period in 2024 at 179.7 MMBF. When looking at the report by dollar value, Southern Pine exports were up 27% to $22.6 million in April – a 12-month high – compared to the same month in 2024 and up 26% over March 2025. Mexico leads the way YTD 2025 at $20.7 million, followed by the Dominican Republic at $15.8 million, and Canada at $5 million. Treated lumber exports, meanwhile, were up 47% compared to April 2025 at $15 million and up 53% over March 2025. …Softwood lumber imports were down 5% in April to 1.2 MMBF over the year and down 13.7% over March 2025.
UK — Housing programmes delivered by Homes England resulted in 38,308 new houses starting on site and 36,872 new homes completed between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025. This represents an increase in both starts (by 5%) and completions (by 12%) compared to the same period the previous year. 30,087 of new starts on site were for affordable houses — a 0.6% increase on the previous year, and representing 79% of all starts. …Eamonn Boylan, Chief Executive of Homes England, said: ”The statistics demonstrate the importance of programmes like the Affordable Homes Programme (AHP) to enable the delivery of these much-needed homes — and comes hot on the heels of the government committing a further £39 billion in funding to affordable homes over a 10 year period, giving confidence and certainty to the sector.”