
Kelly McCloskey

Robert McKellar
Over the past two years, Tree Frog has periodically turned to political risk consultant Robert McKellar to help readers better understand the geopolitical forces increasingly shaping the business environment in which the North American forest sector operates. In his feature Trump’s Second Term and Political Risk in the Canadian Forest Sector, Robert explored how changing politics, government policy and international relations can create both risks and opportunities for forest companies. In doing so, he also introduced readers to the discipline of political risk management—a practical framework for anticipating and responding to an increasingly uncertain world.
Robert’s earlier articles generated thoughtful feedback and reinforced a common observation: the pace of global change is becoming increasingly difficult to follow. Every day seems to bring another headline about tariffs, trade disputes, wars, sanctions, shipping disruptions, energy prices, artificial intelligence, or some other geopolitical development. For many of us, the challenge is no longer keeping up with the news—it’s deciding what actually deserves our attention. Which developments are likely to influence markets, trade and investment in the forest sector? Which simply warrant monitoring? And which are little more than background noise? Those questions are central to political risk management. They are also questions we increasingly hear from readers trying to make sense of a relentless news cycle and what it means for their businesses and organizations.
In this article, Robert steps back from the daily headlines to explain how political risk professionals approach that challenge. His answer offers a practical framework for separating signal from noise—and a useful way of thinking about the global forces increasingly shaping the future of the forest sector.
OTTAWA, ON—Researchers at McGill University, in partnership with Canadian Forest Owners (CFO) and with support from MITACS Canada, are launching the first national survey of Canadian private forest owners in more than two decades. The survey aims to build a stronger evidence base to help governments better understand the role private forests play in Canada’s economy, environment and communities. The findings are expected to inform policy development and improve decision-making. CFO and McGill University researchers are working together to advance a national approach to private forest data. The project will gather information on forest area, condition and production potential, as well as insight into who owns and manages these lands, their objectives and their long-term stewardship plans. …Private forests are often managed over multiple generations, offering continuity of stewardship, patient capital and a long-term perspective. …The survey is intended to help close that information gap and improve understanding of Canada’s private forest sector.
OTTAWA, ON – The Canadian Wood Council (CWC) announces that Rick Jeffery will retire from his role as President and Chief Executive Officer of the CWC effective June 30, 2026, following a distinguished career of leadership and service to Canada’s wood products industry.
International Pulp Week brought together global market pulp leaders for two days of presentations, market intelligence, and industry dialogue hosted by the Pulp and Paper Products Council. Tim Brown, vice president with PPPC opens and introduced the program before before handing the sessions to day one speaker and moderator Kevin Mason of ERA Forest Products Research, and day two moderator Kelly McNamara of Numera Analytics. Now in its 21st year, IPW remains the premier annual gathering for the market pulp sector — drawing producers, end-users, analysts, and suppliers from across the value chain for a concentrated look at the forces shaping global markets. This year’s program covered an unusually wide range of territory, from geopolitics and macroeconomics to fibre performance, specialty cellulose, bleaching chemicals, carbon capture, and a comprehensive market outlook. 










In much of Canada, provincial and territorial fuel classification layers are built on vegetation inventory information that can be many years out of date. The inputs behind those layers are often unvalidated and the conditions they describe may not reflect current reality. …Forests change considerably over time. As an example, past harvest activity has restructured stands, and bark beetle infestations have converted millions of hectares of mature lodgepole pine into standing dead fuel. …Provincial layers typically describe fuel type classifications but say little about the structural attributes of those fuels, and nothing about their current seasonal condition. …In the WUI, the difference between a fuel-free buffer and a continuous shrub corridor can be measured in meters. Legacy maps cannot resolve these issues. The consequences of missing them are not abstract.
Introducing the Wildfire Resilience Consortium of Canada (WRCC): Throughout Canada, people are doing inspiring work to improve our wildfire resilience – from
Canada’s wildfire seasons are no longer episodic shocks. They are systemic and growing more costly with every passing year. Leading wildfire experts who are changing how we think about wildfire science, Indigenous fire stewardship, forest management, and emergency preparedness clearly underscored that new reality during a
Each year, Wildfire Resilience and Awareness Week is a reminder of a reality we are all facing. Wildfires are no longer a distant or a seasonal threat. They are at our doorstep and part of our new normal, impacting communities throughout British Columbia. Since 2017, we have experienced some of the most destructive wildfire seasons in our province’s history. Entire communities have been changed. Through it all, we have seen the extraordinary courage of firefighters and first responders who step forward when others are told to leave. When others must evacuate, they risk their lives so communities can be saved. But we have also learned something very important. Preparation makes a huge difference. If we’re going to meet this moment, we cannot simply react to wildfire, we must get ahead of it. …
Tree Frog Forestry News is proud to once again partner with the
Derek Nighbor, President and CEO of the Forest Products Association of Canada, appeared before the Parliamentary Standing Committee on International Trade to outline the promise and complexity of growing Canadian forest sector exports to Japan — and to make a pointed case for sustained federal investment to make it happen. Canada currently ships roughly $1 billion annually to Japan, a figure Nighbor put in context: it reflects a century of Canadian forestry trade there and 50 years of work by the Canada Wood Group. “It’s a heavy lift,” he said. Against nearly $8 billion in annual softwood lumber exports to the United States — now facing combined duties and Section 232 tariffs in the 45% range — Japan is a real but incremental diversification opportunity. Canada holds 65% of Japan’s 2×4 dimension lumber market, built by actively developing a wood-building culture where one didn’t naturally exist. Holding and growing that share, Nighbor told the committee, requires sustained technical engagement on codes, standards, and the platform frame system — not simply shipping more product. He also flagged headwinds: declining Japanese housing starts, growing domestic Japanese lumber supply, aggressive European entry across lumber, pulp, and pellets, and tightening Japanese sustainability and traceability requirements.
It’s not behind a paywall. It doesn’t chase clicks. And it doesn’t try to be everything to everyone. Instead, it’s quietly become a daily habit for thousands across the forest sector—industry, government, First Nations, researchers, students, and retirees alike—all looking for a simple way to stay informed. What started as a small idea has grown into something much bigger than we imagined. Today, Tree Frog directly reaches more than 100,000 readers across BC, Canada, the US and beyond, with thousands more picking it up through company circulations, association newsletters, and even university classrooms. In many ways, it has become shared infrastructure for the sector—a common starting point for understanding what’s happening and why it matters.
The past few years have been tough for Canada’s forest industry. …In response to US tariffs and as a partial solution to our continuing housing crisis, Prime Minister Carney has made a commendable move, providing support for the lumber industry and setting a target of doubling housing starts. He’s also announced the Canadian Forest Sector Transformation Task Force. Achieving Mr. Carney’s targets for the forestry sector will require transformation of our wood products and construction industries. …When a log is cut up for lumber, about 40% of the tree is converted to residual chips, and without demand for wood chips to make paper, production of lumber will not be viable. New, alternative uses for those residuals become essential. One option would be to replace a number of idled pulp mills with a couple of large, modern mills.
Canada’s government has moved quickly to protect and strengthen the sectors most affected by U.S. tariffs –
Recent incidents in BC’s forest industry, in which trees being felled have contacted energized transmission lines, have led to the creation of some new documents by BC Hydro. These new documents support discussions with forest companies/ harvesting contractors to ensure obligations to identify the hazardous areas associated with harvesting near powerlines are addressed. One of these documents, The Logging Near Powerlines Emergency Contact Form, focuses on strict compliance with current WorkSafeBC (WSBC) Regulations. …Electricity seeks the path of least resistance to the ground. That path could include a tree, mobile equipment, tools, or the human body. …Health and safety in forestry workplaces is the responsibility of all parties that have an influence on how work is carried out. …Where possible as part of the initial planning process ensure that cut block boundaries are well away from the powerline corridor. 
As wildfires in Canada grow larger, faster and more unpredictable, the challenge facing emergency responders is no longer just putting water on flames, it is understanding what the fire is doing, where it is heading, and how quickly conditions are changing —drones are a critical tool in meeting that challenge.
Wildfire activity is not simply a disruption to forestry work in British Columbia–it has the potential to be a significant occupational hazard. Wildfire smoke and ash can cause respiratory problems, trees impacted by fire can fall unexpectedly and crews could become entrapped by fast moving flame fronts. In recent years, BC has experienced some of the most severe wildfire seasons in Canada. One season alone saw approximately 2.8 million hectares burned, which was more than double previous records and caused widespread evacuations, area closures, and heavy smoke. BC’s forestry sector was significantly impacted, particularly in remote locations that were dangerously exposed to rapidly changing fire conditions.
Students at Thompson Rivers University (TRU) have completed the first year of Canada’s first university-level diploma in wildfire studies, marking a key milestone in a program designed to meet the growing and evolving demands of the wildfire sector.
After more than three decades working in forestry and wildfire risk in British Columbia, I have come to see our wildfire challenge less as a failure of knowledge and more as a question of how we choose to invest wildfire mitigation funding. …much of the risk we face is well understood and well documented. We know where our most vulnerable forests are in relation to values at risk. We know which communities are exposed and we have a growing body of evidence showing what kinds of interventions can change fire behaviour on the ground. What is less clear is whether our investment patterns reflect that understanding in a meaningful way. …Over the past two decades, spending on fire suppression has consistently outpaced investment in prevention and mitigation.
Wildfire is no longer a distant or hypothetical concern for communities in British Columbia. Over the past several years, North Cowichan has taken meaningful steps to better understand and reduce its wildfire risk—investing in planning, expertise, and long‑term resilience. …Ours is a classic wildland–urban interface (WUI) community. …North Cowichan has recognized that wildfire must be addressed as an ongoing operational and planning consideration rather than a seasonal concern. A key step in advancing this work was the creation of a dedicated wildfire specialist role. This position reflects an understanding that effective wildfire preparedness and response require focused expertise, long‑range planning, and coordination across multiple municipal functions.
Wildfire has become an increasingly visible part of life across Western Canada. Our climate is changing, and wildfire seasons are becoming longer and drier. The best way to tackle wildfire preparedness, prevention, and mitigation is to work together. FireSmart BC is a provincial program dedicated to helping British Columbians understand and reduce their wildfire risk. We serve as the go-to resource for individuals, neighbourhoods, and communities looking to protect themselves and their properties.
…Built on decades of research, FireSmart BC focuses on how wildfire behaves around structures and how changes on and around a property can influence outcomes during a wildfire. …Wildfire mitigation is a shared responsibility. When renters, landlords, homeowners, businesses, and all levels of government work together, we can collectively reduce the risk and impact of wildfires across British Columbia. …FireSmart BC offers a wide range of resources to support both individuals and organizations.
At a screening of
Vancouver Island is heading into the 2026 wildfire season under precarious conditions. Island snowpack is below normal, Environment Canada forecasts warmer and drier conditions through June, and there’s a 62 per cent chance of a strong El Niño by late summer — the weather pattern behind the prolonged heat and drought that intensifies wildfire risk. For Mosaic, which manages over 550,000 hectares of private forest land across Vancouver Island and the Sunshine Coast on behalf of two of Canada’s largest pension plans, wildfire preparedness is fundamental to responsible land management. This year, the company is further preparing by expanding its wildfire detection and mitigation capabilities. …This season, Mosaic is set to pilot an integrated detection system in the Nanaimo Lakes drainage, combining cameras, ground-level sensors and low-orbit satellite monitoring to identify ignitions faster and across a wider area. …“Our forests support local economies, local pensions and are cherished recreational spaces,” said Steve Mjaaland, Senior Manager of Forest Protection at Mosaic.
In the face of significant challenges—from mill closures to tariffs and shifting global markets—one question we hear more than any other from people: “What can I actually do to help?” When the headlines are dominated by uncertainty, it can feel like the hurdles facing the forest industry are too large for any one person to influence. But there is a powerful way to make your voice heard and tell the provincial government it isn’t just an industry priority but a priority for every British Columbian that wants a resilient future.
We are gauging interest in a conference for students and young professionals across B.C. in the forestry industry. The goal of this conference is to create a more unified forestry sector throughout the province by bringing together students and young professionals to discuss current and future challenges in forestry, explore innovative solutions, and build relationships that can support us throughout our careers. This is a youth-led initiative and so having your opinions and participation is crucial to determine the topics and speakers for the conference. We have created a short survey (see link) to help determine the topics and timing of this conference. This is a chance for young professionals and students like yourself to build a more connected, informed, and forward-thinking forestry community and empower them to help shape the future of forestry in B.C.
Vancouver — Forest Professionals British Columbia (FPBC) honoured seven individuals as part of its recognition program in Vancouver on February 5. Forest Professionals BC recognized three Distinguished Forest Professionals, one Forest Professional of the Year, one Jim Rodney Memorial Volunteer of the Year, and two authors for BC Forest Professional Magazine Best Article at the 78th Forest Professionals BC forestry conference recognition banquet.
…Jeff Fisher (North Vancouver), BSF, RPF, Christopher Vukovic (Qualicum Beach), HBScF, RPF(Ret), and John Walker (Williams Lake), RPF, were honoured as Distinguished Forest Professionals for 2025. This category recognizes significant accomplishments over a career, for providing outstanding service to the profession of forestry and for furthering the principles of Forest Professionals BC. It is the profession’s highest honour for a registrant. 
Peter Flett, MSFM, RPF, of Penticton is the 2025 Forest Professional of the Year. Margaret Symon, RPF, PCP, of Duncan is the 2025 Jim Rodney Memorial Volunteer of the Year. Lastly, Vanessa Fetterly, BSc, RPBio, and Carl Pollard, BSc, RPF, collaborated on the 2025 BC Forest Professional Magazine Best Article.
Nick Arkle, BSF’84, and Louise Arkle, BA’82, MA’85
John Mohammed, BSc(ForSci)’91
Day Three of the Truck Loggers Association convention opened with a private screening of BC Is Burning, a documentary produced by professional forester Murray Wilson examining British Columbia’s escalating wildfire crisis and the forest conditions shaping fire behaviour. Introduced by moderator Vaughn Palmer as an “urgent, powerful documentary,” the film explores how fuel buildup, insect damage, drought, and decades of fire suppression have contributed to larger, more intense wildfires, while highlighting a range of forest management approaches being applied in BC and elsewhere, including California. The screening was followed by a Q&A moderated by Palmer with Dr. Carolyn Smyth of Natural Resources Canada, Rob Schweitzer of the Ministry of Forests and BC Wildfire Service, and Jim McGrath of Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc, all of whom also appeared in the film. Discussion focused on fuel mitigation, fire salvage, carbon dynamics, and policy and permitting constraints.
The
The final session of the Truck Loggers Association convention featured an on-stage conversation with Trevor Halford, Interim Leader of the Conservative Party of BC and current Leader of the Opposition, moderated by Vaughn Palmer. Joined by TLA President Dorian Uzzell, Vice President Bob Marquis, and Past President Aaron Service, the discussion focused on forestry policy, investment certainty, and regulatory conditions affecting contractors and communities. Halford pointed to permitting delays, regulatory complexity, and policy uncertainty as barriers to investment, arguing that businesses are prepared to invest but are being held back by slow approvals. Responding to questions on DRIPA, fibre supply, and the closure of the Crofton mill, Halford framed his party’s call for repeal and his broader critique around the need for clarity, predictability, and timely decision-making. Audience questions reinforced concerns about risk aversion within government and the need for clearer authority and accountability to sustain forestry employment across the province.
Day 2 of the TLA Convention opened with a panel on First Nations partnerships, examining how collaboration between Indigenous communities and industry is reshaping forestry in BC. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, the session featured Lennard Joe, CEO of the BC First Nations Forestry Council; Chief Ronnie Chickite of the We Wai Kai Nation; and Klay Tindall, General Manager of Lil’wat Forestry Ventures. Joe outlined the rapid growth of First Nations tenure and investment, emphasizing operational feasibility, workforce capacity, and the need for partnerships grounded in mutual benefit. Chickite described We Wai Kai’s expansion from small licences to controlling nearly 220,000 cubic metres annually, highlighting reinvestment in employment, education, and long-term community stability. Tindall shared how partnerships helped transform Lil’wat Forestry Ventures, supporting capacity building, wildfire risk reduction, and stewardship in sensitive areas. In a discussion touching on DRIPA, the speakers emphasized inclusion, local economic benefit, and the importance of durable, collaborative governance in forestry.
At the TLA Convention’s Leader’s Luncheon, Forests Minister Ravi Parmar outlined the BC government’s current priorities for the forest sector, following a pre-recorded message from Premier David Eby, who is on a trade mission to India. Speaking from abroad, Eby emphasized strengthening international trade relationships and promoting BC products amid global uncertainty. Parmar said forestry is facing a convergence of challenges, including market volatility, high costs, trade pressures, and wildfire risk. Beginning with wildfire, he announced an expansion of the Risk Reduction Equipment Support Trust (REST) program, increasing provincial cost-sharing from 10% to 25% for eligible equipment and modifications used in fuel management and mitigation work. He also addressed fibre supply and Path to 45, stressing the need to remove operational barriers and improve planning certainty, and pointed to ongoing reforms at BC Timber Sales. Parmar emphasized balancing economic viability, environmental responsibility, and reconciliation, while underscoring the importance of international markets for BC’s forest products.
The second “fostering collaboration” panel of Day 2 at the TLA Convention brought together senior leaders from forestry and the broader business community to share organizational perspectives on BC’s economic and forest-sector challenges. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, the session featured Bridget Anderson, President and CEO of the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade; Peter Lister, Executive Director of the Truck Loggers Association; Kim Haakstad, President and CEO of the BC Council of Forest Industries (COFI); and Joe Nemeth, General Manager of the BC Pulp & Paper Coalition. Anderson addressed the wider provincial economic context, including growth, fiscal pressures, and business conditions. Lister focused on the state of the forest industry, fibre access, costs, and investment certainty. Haakstad examined competitiveness, tenure obligations, employment trends, and economic reconciliation. Nemeth spoke to the pulp and paper sector, highlighting cost structures, fibre availability, and conditions required for future investment.



Day 1 of the TLA Conference kicked off its technical program with the Markets & Economy panel, examining how trade disruption, shifting construction trends, and fibre supply constraints are reshaping Canada’s forest sector. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, the session featured David Fell, Director of Research and Analysis at Forestry Innovation Investment (FII); Rick Jeffery, President and CEO of the Canadian Wood Council; and Don Wright, Senior Counsel at Global Public Affairs. Fell outlined BC’s reliance on export markets, the importance of diversification, and the role of building codes in supporting domestic demand. Jeffery focused on housing, industrialized construction, mass timber, and the need for supply-chain adaptation to capture future growth. Wright addressed the economics of competitiveness, pointing to declining harvest levels, policy-driven fibre constraints, and their implications for government revenue. In the discussion, Wright said restoring an economically sustainable harvest level was “job number one.”
The second session of the TLA Conference featured the Closing the Gap on Fibre Supply panel, examining the BC government’s Path to 45 target and what it means for contractors and operating companies. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, the session brought together Jim Girvan, Associate at IFS; Paul Sadler, GM & CEO of Harmac Pacific; and Jonathan Armstrong, Vice President of Forestry and Fibre Supply at Western Forest Products. Girvan contrasted the 45-million-cubic-metre goal with current projections of roughly 28 million, stressing that the real issue is not volume alone but whether fibre is economically viable to harvest. Sadler focused on the operational realities facing mills and contractors, including cost, access, permitting timelines, and the need for predictable supply. Armstrong described how policy and regulatory layering has complicated planning and investment, particularly on the coast, and emphasized the gap between theoretical fibre and what can actually be brought to market.
Day 1 of the TLA Conference continued with the Government Initiatives Update panel, offering a detailed look at current policy work within the BC Ministry of Forests, reforms at BC Timber Sales, and longer-term system challenges. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, the session featured Makenzie Leine, Deputy Minister of Forests; Melissa Sanderson, Assistant Deputy Minister; and Garry Merkel, Co-Chair of the Provincial Forestry Advisory Council. Leine outlined the ministry’s priorities, including tariff response, the Path to 45 initiative, and a shift toward management-unit-level problem-solving rather than broad, one-size-fits-all policy. Sanderson provided an update on the BCTS review, its expanded public-interest mandate, and early implementation steps, including Category 4 value-added supply, stewardship work, and measures affecting contractors. Merkel addressed longer-term structural issues, questioning why repeated reviews have failed to deliver lasting stability and calling for governance approaches that better align economic activity, communities, and forest stewardship.
Day 1 of the TLA Conference concluded with the Improving Workplace Safety panel, examining how industry and regulators are addressing risk during a period of economic pressure and operational uncertainty. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, the session featured Rob Moonen, CEO of the BC Forest Safety Council, and Todd McDonald, Head of Prevention Services at WorkSafeBC. Moonen, who noted he will retire at the end of March, warned that cost pressures and tighter margins are creating conditions that can undermine safety, stressing that the industry “cannot afford to wait for another crisis before acting.” He highlighted mental health as a growing concern and outlined the Council’s new Connection to Care counselling initiative. McDonald described WorkSafeBC’s prevention approach, emphasizing education and consultation alongside enforcement, and identified key risk areas including extreme weather, motor-vehicle incidents, ergonomics, and mental health. Both speakers underscored that sustained leadership and collaboration remain essential to protecting forestry workers.



When the City of Nanaimo tabled a zoning amendment to Bylaw 4500 that could effectively change the heavy industry zoning in Nanaimo on Nov. 17, there was one main target: Nanaimo Forest Products. NFP owns Harmac Pacific, ‘the little pulp mill that did,’ which continues to pay around 350 full-time employee-owners while maintaining consistent profitability, and is a major Vancouver Island success story. They’ve done that thanks to an employee ownership model that sees workers share in its profits, as well as clever leadership which has made several key investments. …One of NFP’s key strategic moves was purchasing the 61 hectares adjacent to Harmac, which is industrial land. Developing that will benefit NFP and its worker-shareholders, companies that want to set up business in Nanaimo with ocean access, Harmac employees and taxpayers.
For more than 80 years, the annual
Sponsors enjoy high-profile recognition before, during, and after the convention, ensuring your brand stays top of mind among key industry players. Tracey Russell, Vice President-Equipment, Inland Truck & Equipment Ltd. is a regular at the Convention, “We sponsor the TLA Convention + Trade Show every year because it’s one of the best opportunities for exposure and relationship building – connections that have made a lasting impact on our business and our brand.”