Kevin Mason
In mid-April, the Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies (JCHS) released its Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity update, forecasting R&R growth ~+1.6% per quarter between now and Q1/26. This projected growth comes after a modest pullback in R&R spending in 2024 and will be welcomed by North American solid-wood producers given expected declines in demand from new residential construction in the coming quarters. …Recent pricing trends persisted in North American lumber markets over the past month, with S-P-F prices continuing lower while SYP prices moved higher. …A modest seasonal uptick in demand from treaters appears to be one of the catalysts creating SYP price improvement, while the pause on tariffs—the threat of which had previously boosted S-P-F prices—has now precipitated a drop in S-P-F lumber pricing.
As we’ve highlighted exhaustively over the past several months, duties on Canadian lumber exports to the US are scheduled to more than double later this year, and there is still potential for incremental lumber tariffs following a Section 232 investigation (there is the potential for tariffs to extend to panels, etc., but even producers don’t have any clarity). Barring an unlikely spike in lumber demand, many Canadian sawmills are likely to discover that the economics of selling lumber into the US no longer work (unless prices move substantially higher—but that will be driven by closures in Canada). …For Canadian producers, do alternative markets exist, or could a surge in Canadian homebuilding replace some of the lost volumes to the US? In short, there are no easily accessible markets that come close to the size of the US and that can be supplied by Canadian mills.
In the face of the unjustified economic attack by the leader of our U.S. neighbours, Canadian Forest Owners (CFO) stand fast as your good neighbours, who are committed to sustainable forest management for resilient, thriving communities coast to coast. Last week’s announced tariffs on Canada’s wood products by U.S. President Trump will harm not just forest landowners but local mills, workers and their families, communities, especially rural ones, and customers on both sides of the border. Together we stand firm with our colleagues in industry and the federal and provincial governments to strengthen the Canadian forest sector and work to bolster family woodlots and the economies of rural communities.
While the market tries to process what’s to come on the trade front, it’s abundantly clear that the new administration is paying special attention to lumber and likely other wood products. Trump and his surrogates have emphasized the point of view that the US has the underlying resources to produce all its own lumber and wood product needs. In response, there have been a number of news articles highlighting the statements and questioning the idea of whether or not America can quickly and completely wean itself off Canadian wood products. …Canada currently supplies about 12.0 BBF of softwood lumber to the US market. After accounting for the 1.3 BBF of exports the US has shipped in recent years, the US is still short just over 3.2 BBF of operable capacity to quickly fill Canadian lumber supply and still meet current demand levels. In other words, at current demand levels, the US softwood lumber market does not clear without Canadian supply.
Steep slope harvesting (SSH) enables forestry operations on challenging and often hazardous terrain, allowing access to valuable timber resources. But with this access comes increased risk. From equipment instability to terrain hazards, safe operations on steep ground require a clear understanding of the work environment and strong mitigation strategies. 
Steep slope harvesting can be approached in several ways, each with its own set of challenges and safety considerations. …Steep slope harvesting presents significant risks, but with careful planning, proper equipment, and a culture of safety, these risks can be managed. “Safety is not a one-time effort but an ongoing process that requires daily attention,” says Pawlowski. “By consistently prioritizing hazard assessment, equipment suitability, proper setup, and staying in the clear, employers and workers can minimize risks and help ensure that steep slope harvesting remains a safe and effective method of timber harvesting.”
Here again in 2025, phase congestion has become a heightened concern as forestry operations are scrambling to produce in the face of uncertainty which could lead to dangerous situations for workers. History has proven that during uncertain times, productivity becomes the main driver, not for all contractors, but for some, and safety can be put on the backburner which puts everyone at risk, even those who put safety first.
Professionals working in the lumber and sawmill sector and looking to advance their careers can gain specialized training through BCIT’s Associate Certificate in Industrial Wood Processing, starting June 2025. The IWP program was developed with industry subject matter experts and informed by industry leaders to support upskilling and professional development within the sector. The program is 1-year, delivered online and part-time to allow students to balance work and studies.
The BC Truck Loggers Association is pleased to share and invite you to access the newly developed B.C. Timber Harvest Rate Model. The tool was built using data provided by contractors as a joint project of the TLA, ILA and NWLA. The tool calculates the hourly rates for equipment used in BC’s forest industry. It’s designed to give contractors a baseline rate for a selected piece of equipment, serving as a starting point. The rates in the model reflect the required revenues of a contractor who runs a reasonably efficient operation; however, they may vary based on specific operations. The parameters (such as labour and fuel) can be adjusted in the model to calculate rates tailored to specific needs.
