Category Archives: Special Feature

Special Feature

Trump’s Re-emergence and Political Risk in the Canadian Forest Sector – Part II

By Kelly McCloskey and Robert McKellar
Tree Frog Forestry News
March 24, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States

Kelly McCloskey

Robert McKellar

When we first reached out to political risk expert Robert McKellar in mid-2024, our goal was to spark a conversation the forest sector wasn’t yet having—about political risk and its growing influence on everything from trade policy to investment decisions. Robert’s op-ed in August, 2024 made the case that political risk is not just something that happens in volatile regions—it is the exposure of businesses to political forces, whether through government policies, trade dynamics, or geopolitical shifts. He identified major political forces impacting the Canadian forest sector—including the growing China-West rivalry and Canada-US trade friction—to help companies assess the relevance of political risk for themselves. In hindsight, his foresights were well placed.

After the election of President Trump and given how quickly the trade situation evolved, we reached out to Robert a few weeks ago to re-examine these dynamics. And given the complexities, we decided on a two-part approach. In Part I, in February 2025, Robert set the stage by looking at Trump’s leadership style and his approach to business, he outlined how forest product companies can assess and manage political risk, and then he focused on the most pressing risk to the sector—tariffs. The other risks—lumber duties, interference in Canadian-owned US-based industries, and the impact of US-China trade tensions on lumber sales—were left for Part II.  In that this is a long read, in the “READ MORE document” are the following hyperlinked-titles—should you wish to proceed directly to a given section:

  • Recap of Part I
  • Is Trump toying with Canada or is there a plan?
  • The latest on duties and tariffs
  • Are Canadian US-subsidiaries at risk?
  • US-China friction and lumber sales
  • How to plan and manage for political risk

This isn’t a typical industry commentary. It’s not about what government should do, or where markets might go next. It’s about what companies can do now to better anticipate, adapt to, and, at times, even leverage political disruption. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]

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Canadian Forest Owners: Good Neighbours in Bad Times

By Susannah Banks, Chair, Canadian Forest Owners
Canadian Forest Owners
March 13, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada

In the face of the unjustified economic attack by the leader of our U.S. neighbours, Canadian Forest Owners (CFO) stand fast as your good neighbours, who are committed to sustainable forest management for resilient, thriving communities coast to coast. Last week’s announced tariffs on Canada’s wood products by U.S. President Trump will harm not just forest landowners but local mills, workers and their families, communities, especially rural ones, and customers on both sides of the border. Together we stand firm with our colleagues in industry and the federal and provincial governments to strengthen the Canadian forest sector and work to bolster family woodlots and the economies of rural communities.

As your neighbours in thousands of communities across Canada, CFO members are often the closest and fastest line of defense when wildfires threaten a community. Many private forest owners interface rural and urban communities and are ready with firefighting equipment to protect forestland from wildfires. They are also positioned to assist with land restoration projects. CFO looks forward to working with government to increase understanding of the current contributions of private forestland management in natural disaster mitigation and further implement best practices on private lands across the country.

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Does the US really need Canadian wood products supply? Apparently yes.

By Dustin Jalbert
RISI Fastmarkets
March 10, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States

While the market tries to process what’s to come on the trade front, it’s abundantly clear that the new administration is paying special attention to lumber and likely other wood products. Trump and his surrogates have emphasized the point of view that the US has the underlying resources to produce all its own lumber and wood product needs. In response, there have been a number of news articles highlighting the statements and questioning the idea of whether or not America can quickly and completely wean itself off Canadian wood products. …Canada currently supplies about 12.0 BBF of softwood lumber to the US market. After accounting for the 1.3 BBF of exports the US has shipped in recent years, the US is still short just over 3.2 BBF of operable capacity to quickly fill Canadian lumber supply and still meet current demand levels. In other words, at current demand levels, the US softwood lumber market does not clear without Canadian supply.

…US sawmills could add second and/or third shifts to existing operations to eke out more production if prices and profitability warranted. …It’s plausible that the US could increase supply this way, but as basic economics teaches, there’s only so much upside to raising production by adding labor to the existing capital stock. What about building new sawmill capacity? …Even in favorable conditions, we are talking three to four years to build out the 3-4 BBF of sawmill capacity needed to replace Canadian supply. Even assuming modest demand growth over the remainder of the decade, the US would probably require closer to 10 years to completely and sustainably wean itself off external lumber supply. …Under the right policy conditions and given enough time, US “independence” from Canadian wood products supply and imports more broadly is a plausible scenario, but clearly comes with distinct trade-offs. The brunt of the pain over the near term will be carried by consumers as they absorb these higher prices, especially at a critical point when housing affordability in the US is also under a microscope.

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Trump’s Re-emergence and Political Risk in the Canadian Forest Sector – Part I

Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
February 24, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States

Kelly McCloskey

We reached out to Robert McKellar at Harmattan Risk in August 2024 for comment on the increasing pace of change in the forest sector, shaped by political forces and government intervention. Robert’s op-ed offered a thoughtful analysis of how inherent political risks—especially those linked to Canada–US trade friction—could rapidly unsettle an industry long reliant on stability. At the time, Trump’s potential political comeback was still largely speculative. Since that op-ed, the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Trump’s re-emergence is no longer a remote possibility but a concrete reality that has intensified uncertainty across the sector. With these developments in mind, we reconnected with Robert to update his analysis and explore how the risks he foresaw have become even more pronounced. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]

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The interconnected crises of wildfires, community risk, and forest health

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
The Tree Frog News
April 7, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

Former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber opened the conference’s second day with a call for systemic change in how western jurisdictions respond to the interconnected crises of wildfires, community risk, and forest health. Speaking from decades of experience, Kitzhaber urged British Columbia to move beyond reactive firefighting and fragmented policy to create a landscape-level, cross-boundary strategy rooted in collaboration. “We need to reframe the problem,” he said. “We have a land management crisis masquerading as a wildfire crisis.” …Following Kitzhaber’s address, the panel tackled the challenge of bringing those high-level ideas into local practice. COFI Vice President Zara Rabinovitch moderated the conversation, which featured MLA Ward Stamer, wildfire researcher James Whitehead, and Klay Tindall of Lil’wat Forestry Ventures.

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Conservation, consultation, certification and careers in BC’s working forest

Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 7, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

The COFI panel on conservation, consultation, certification, and careers brought together diverse voices from across the forest sector to explore how BC’s working forest can evolve to meet social, economic, and ecological expectations. Moderated by Jason Fisher, Executive Director of the Forest Enhancement Society of BC, the discussion featured Lennard Joe, CEO of the BC First Nations Forestry Council; Michael Reid, BC Program Director with Nature United; Kathy Abusow, President and CEO of the Sustainable Forestry Initiative; and Aspen Dudzic, Director of Communications at the Alberta Forest Products Association and lead for the Forestry Together campaign. Opening the session, Fisher framed the discussion as a turning point for the sector. …Lennard Joe answered with a call to action. …Michael Reid echoed the theme of co-development. …Kathy Abusow brought a national and North American perspective. …Aspen Dudzic described their Forestry Together campaign.

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Growing the Canadian market for BC wood

Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 7, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

The COFI panel on growing Canadian markets for BC wood brought together a mix of voices from architecture, Indigenous forestry, and sustainable design to explore how to unlock domestic demand for BC’s wood products. Moderated by Shawn Keyes, Executive Director of WoodWorks BC, the discussion featured Chris Hill, President of BCollective; Robert Manuel, Strategic Advisor with the BC First Nations Forestry Council; and architect Shelley Craig, Principal at Urban Arts Architecture. Keyes said there is enormous untapped potential within Canada itself. …Chris Hill offered an Indigenous business perspective, speaking about the importance of anchoring markets in reconciliation and sustainability. …Robert Manuel emphasized the link between Indigenous forest tenure and economic opportunity. …Shelley Craig described the ways wood is transforming urban architecture and public infrastructure.

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John Rustad calls for a forestry policy reset

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 7, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

BC Conservative Party Leader John Rustad closed out Day 1 of the COFI conference with a direct, politically charged address that called for a full-scale rethinking of provincial forest policy. Speaking in his dual role as Opposition Leader and longtime MLA for Nechako Lakes, Rustad framed his remarks around a central theme: the need to reassert forestry as a cornerstone of the BC economy. …”We need to re-establish a viable, harvestable working forest. Period,” he said. …On wildfire, Rustad argued that current policy places too much emphasis on response and not enough on proactive management. …On Indigenous relations, Rustad struck a tone that blended support for increased economic participation. …He also voiced concerns that forest planning is becoming disconnected from local communities. …”This is a moment of choice,” he said. “We either rebuild our forest sector, or we let it continue to decline.”

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Spotlight on innovation, technology and wood construction

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

The 2025 COFI Convention spotlighted the theme of innovation in forestry with a session focused on new technologies and opportunities for wood-based construction. Kylie Williams, BC Regional Director for Foresight Canada, introduced the session, emphasizing the critical role of innovation in the face of industry challenges such as fibre supply issues and market uncertainty. …Tim Caldecott, Senior Director of Sustainable Construction and Carbon & Market Economics at FPInnovations, followed with a discussion on the opportunities for wood-based buildings. He acknowledged the growing interest in wood as a building material but pointed out that the market share of wood-based non-residential buildings remains small. …Todd Sayers, Chief Operating Officer at the BC Centre for Innovation in Clean Energy, closed the session by focusing on diversification and the development of new technologies. He discussed the Centre’s work in biofuels and wildfire mitigation technologies.

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Navigating global markets: challenges and opportunities

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

The third panel of the 2025 COFI Convention focused on navigating global markets and maintaining competitiveness in the face of challenges. Russ Taylor, President of Russ Taylor Global, opened the session by addressing the disruptions in global markets, particularly with the US trade relationship under President Donald Trump. …Mark Cameron, Fellow & Lead of Canada-US Relations Strategy at the Public Policy Forum, addressed the current state of US-Canada trade relations and the threat of tariffs on Canadian lumber. …Kate Lindsay, Senior Vice President and Chief Sustainability Officer at the Forest Products Association of Canada, followed by discussing the European Union’s new regulation—the EUDR—that will be implemented in December 2025. …Sean Lawler, Managing Director of Canada Wood Japan, provided insights into the state of the Japanese market, focusing on the challenges and opportunities for BC’s forest products in the region.

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Economic outlook and where do we stand on competitiveness and sustainability

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

Kurt Niquidet, Vice President and Chief Economist at COFI, opened the panel by discussing timber supply in BC. He explained that the annual allowable cut (AAC) has been trending down, now sitting at approximately 60 million cubic meters. This decline, attributed to factors like the mountain pine beetle outbreak and wildfires, is contributing to a growing gap between the AAC and actual harvests. …He also pointed out the challenges in meeting timber targets, especially with BC Timber Sales (BCTS) falling short of its targets, further stressing the supply crunch. …Glenn O’Kelly of O’Kelly Acumen, who shared findings from a benchmarking report comparing BC’s forestry sector performance with other global jurisdictions. “In the last 10 years, BC’s forestry sector has seen a 3.6% decline in GDP, the lowest of the peer group,” O’Kelly noted. …Despite the challenges, O’Kelly noted that BC had experienced a positive development in terms of productivity.

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Regional Chief Terry Teegee calls for meaningful partnerships and sustainable forestry

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

The opening keynote of the 2025 COFI Convention was delivered by Regional Chief Terry Teegee of the BC Assembly of First Nations. …Teegee underscored the significant role First Nations play in the forestry industry, both as stewards of the land and as active participants in the economic fabric of the sector. …Turning to economic challenges facing the sector, Chief Teegee addressed the threat of tariffs on Canadian lumber products. “These tariffs are more than just a policy issue; they’re creating real-world impacts,” he said, noting the strain on forestry businesses, especially those owned or operated by First Nations. “The uncertainty hits us hard. The social impacts are significant,” he added. He also spoke about the need to build resilience in the sector, stating, “Forestry is a renewable industry…we’re going into second pass and it will always be there.” …Chief Teegee’s address set the tone for the convention, emphasizing the need for partnerships, sustainable practices, and the central role of Indigenous leadership in shaping the future of BC’s forest industry.

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Greg Stewart kicks off 2025 COFI Convention with delegate welcome

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
The Tree Frog Forestry News
April 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

The 2025 COFI Convention kicked off at the Prince George Civic Centre with an official welcome that set the stage for the two-day event. Greg Stewart, President of Sinclar Group Forest Products and Chair of the COFI Board of Directors, welcomed attendees to the conference, emphasized the significance of the gathering and acknowledged the unceded ancestral lands of the Klaytli Tenei Nation. Chief Dolleen Logan of the Lheidli T’enneh First Nation provided an Indigenous welcome, sharing her pride in the relationship between her people and the forestry industry. …Mayor Simon Yu of Prince George followed with a heartfelt address, acknowledging the region’s dependence on the forestry industry and emphasizing the need for innovative solutions to ensure its competitiveness. …Kiel Giddens, MLA for Prince George-Mackenzie stressed the need for bold action to navigate the current economic uncertainty and reaffirmed his commitment to supporting the forest sector. …Kim Haakstad, the new President and CEO of COFI, closed the welcoming segment by expressing her enthusiasm for the convention and the work ahead. She acknowledged the leadership of former CEO Linda Cody and introduced her vision for the future of COFI and the forest sector.

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Canada should be fighting like Muhammad Ali. Instead, it is fighting like Joe Frazier

By Don Wright, Semi-Retired Private and Public Sector Executive
LinkedIn
April 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

Don Wright

In 1973 Joe Frazier, the world heavyweight boxing champion at the time, fought George Foreman. Foreman was younger, taller and had a fearsome reputation for knocking out his opponents quickly. Frazier immediately began trading punches with Foreman in the centre of the ring. Foreman knocked Frazier down six times in the first two rounds before the referee called a halt to the fight. In 1974 Muhammad Ali, hoping to recover the title stripped from him in 1967, fought Foreman in the “Rumble in the Jungle” in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo. Going into the match, Foreman was a 4-1 favourite to beat Ali. And yet, Ali won. How?! Rather than engage in trying to match Foreman blow-for-blow in the centre of the ring, Ali leaned back on the ropes in a defensive position for much of the early rounds and let Foreman tire himself out trying to punch through, a strategy Ali called “rope-a-dope.” As Foreman tired, he let down his guard and Ali was able to knock him out in the eighth round.

My major point, however, is that we should make like Muhammed Ali – practise some rope-a-dope and let Trump punch himself out. He is furiously swinging in multiple directions right now – at China, Europe, Ukraine, the domestic culture war, and everything else. Rather than one boxing match, he has taken on many simultaneously.  There is evidence that the U.S. economy may be stalling. Trump’s actions are damaging business confidence in the U.S., and if the tariffs remain in place American households and businesses will see higher costs. This has already begun to cost him politically. And the cost will grow the longer his tariffs remain in place.

This is an instructive metaphor for Canada’s response to Donald Trump’s tariff threats.  We should be fighting like Ali, but we are fighting like Frazier.

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Forest Innovation & Bioeconomy Conference 2025

The Forest Innovation and Bioeconomy Conference
March 18, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

VANCOUVER — The Forest Innovation & Bioeconomy Conference (FIBC 2025) returns May 6-8, 2025, at the Westin Bayshore in Vancouver, bringing together industry, researchers, policymakers, investors, and First Nations leaders to explore the future of forest sector innovation. Hosted by the B.C. Ministry of Forests, the University of British Columbia’s BioProducts Institute, and Foresight Canada, this international event will focus on forest product innovation, diversification, and the commercialization of high value bioproducts. Early Bird Registration – Save by registering early by March 31, 2025.

Key Highlights

  • Lab-to-Market: The Pathway to Commercialization
  • Horizon Europe & Canada Collaboration
  • Europe Bioeconomy Cluster Development
  • B.C.’s Forest Bioeconomy & Sector Diversification .
  • Business to Business Matchmaking

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Preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber announced

By Nelson Bennett
Business in Vancouver
March 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

The U.S. Commerce Department today announced new preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber imports of 20%. …The duties won’t become final until August, when final determinations are expected to be made. …The new preliminary duties is just the first shot across the bow in what is expected to be a nasty trade war, with additional tariffs that may be layered on top of duties. …Anti-dumping and countervailing duties have been in place on Canadian softwood lumber at varying levels since 2017, following the expiration of the last softwood lumber agreement in 2015. The duties on Canadian softwood lumber have been effective in shrinking Canada’s market share… from about 35% in 2016, to about 24% as of the end of 2024.

…Duties are held by the U.S. Treasury, pending appeals through trade tribunals like the World Trade Organization. In total, Canadian forestry companies have paid a total of $10 billion in duties since 2017. Canada is currently appealing the duties through the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Trade Agreement (CUSMA). Tariffs, on the other hand, are border taxes. In principle, it’s the buyer – the importer – who has to pay the tax, which means American buyers will have to pay more for Canadian lumber. …In practice, however, exporters may have to eat some of those taxes in order to preserve market share. “They’re going to be able to pass on two-thirds of the tariff because supply and demand is going to be tight,” said Russ Taylor. “I think individual companies are going to do their own thing. I think some may actually go off the market, and wait and see what happens to the price. There’s always going to be some company out there that’s will to cut the price to get an order today and keep running.”

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The next four years: Canada / US relations & forest products trade

By Kelly McCloskey
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 7, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, US West

The COFI Day 1 luncheon panel on Canada–US relations and forest products trade brought together political veterans and policy thinkers to unpack the next four years of cross-border dynamics and what they mean for British Columbia’s forest sector. Moderated by Corinne Stavness, Vice President of Corporate Affairs at Western Forest Products, the discussion featured Glen Clark, Chair of BC Hydro and former Premier of BC; James Moore, Senior Advisor with Edelman and former federal Industry Minister; and Mark Cameron, Fellow at the Public Policy Forum and leader of its Canada–US Relations Strategy. Clark opened with a clear warning about the US election. “We are entering a period of maximum unpredictability.” …James Moore stressed that Canada must shift from reacting to shaping outcomes. …Mark Cameron provided a broader policy context, noting the bipartisan consensus around economic nationalism is unlikely to shift.

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President Trump is now a critical variable in the fortunes of Canadian companies in the US

Robert Mckellar
The Tree Frog Forestry News
February 25, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: International

Robert McKellar

Tree Frog:
A lot has changed in the six months since you wrote about political risk management in the Canadian forest products sector. In the media and thus the Tree Frog News, we’ve been hearing a lot about US lumber duties and tariffs and their potential impact on both sides of the border. But before we talk about that, can you comment on what’s changed from a political risk perspective?
Harmattan:
Back in August 2024, I pointed out that the sector had long enjoyed stability, largely because Canada’s primary market—the US—had been open, rational, and predictable. That sense of stability was rooted in a belief that even occasional trade disputes were manageable within a predictable framework. But as we noted then, political risk is not just about places, but also about periods, and things can change even in places we’re very used to. And yes, since that time, we’ve witnessed a dramatic evolution. …President Trump is now a critical variable in the fortunes of Canadian companies in the US, and indeed a major factor in the evolution of the international system. Getting a sense of the man and what he means is probably the most direct route to contextual insight for what follows. I’m not an expert on Trump or even US politics. But like most political risk consultants, I have been fascinated by his rise and character, and have kept an eye on the more discerning observations. What follows is a brief sketch.

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