Robert McKellar
Friday’s Tree Frog interview with political risk expert Robert McKellar drew exceptional interest—and for good reason. Given reader response and the ongoing fallout from Trump’s trade policies, we’re featuring it again for those who missed it. McKellar, who divides his time between Turkey and Canada, brings an international perspective to his analysis of Trump’s second-term trade environment and its implications for Canada’s forest sector. His message is clear: US protectionism is not a passing phase. The current tariff and duty structure reflects a broader nationalist realignment that will persist well beyond the Trump presidency. He notes it is unlikely that the upcoming USMCA review will restore pre-Trump-2 market access, and that while Washington is betting tariffs will attract new foreign investment, the result has instead been greater political risk.
McKellar also examines the recent US–China flare-up, concluding it is unlikely to reignite a full-scale trade war. Within the US, he observes that political momentum currently favours the US Lumber Coalition over homebuilders, but that balance could shift if housing affordability again becomes a political flashpoint. Should the housing crisis deepen, Trump has shown he’s willing to adjust course when broader political pressures outweigh protectionist instincts. For Canadian producers, diversification and value-added strategies remain essential—but slow to materialize. That reality underpins McKellar’s central question: “If that’s true—then what?” His answer calls for a fundamental shift in mindset—challenging the sector to rethink its future and chart a course less dependent on the US market. He concludes that companies should view political-risk awareness as a practical framework—linking foresight, market intelligence, and decision-making into a continuous process of adaptation. The tools already exist within most organizations, he says; the opportunity lies in using them more deliberately as part of everyday business planning.
BC Wood is set to welcome delegates and buyers from British Columbia and around the world to the 22nd Annual Global Buyers Mission (GBM), kicking off tomorrow in Whistler, BC. This signature event brings Canadian wood manufacturers together with pre-qualified international buyers in an exclusive, business-focused environment. The GBM opens with a welcome breakfast, where Premier David Eby will address participants and officially launch the trade show. His presence underscores the critical role of BC’s wood and forestry sector in driving innovation, sustainability, and economic growth. Nearly 800 attendees are expected, a testament to the GBM’s significance in connecting Canadian producers with global markets.
In the face of the unjustified economic attack by the leader of our U.S. neighbours, Canadian Forest Owners (CFO) stand fast as your good neighbours, who are committed to sustainable forest management for resilient, thriving communities coast to coast. Last week’s announced tariffs on Canada’s wood products by U.S. President Trump will harm not just forest landowners but local mills, workers and their families, communities, especially rural ones, and customers on both sides of the border. Together we stand firm with our colleagues in industry and the federal and provincial governments to strengthen the Canadian forest sector and work to bolster family woodlots and the economies of rural communities.
While the market tries to process what’s to come on the trade front, it’s abundantly clear that the new administration is paying special attention to lumber and likely other wood products. Trump and his surrogates have emphasized the point of view that the US has the underlying resources to produce all its own lumber and wood product needs. In response, there have been a number of news articles highlighting the statements and questioning the idea of whether or not America can quickly and completely wean itself off Canadian wood products. …Canada currently supplies about 12.0 BBF of softwood lumber to the US market. After accounting for the 1.3 BBF of exports the US has shipped in recent years, the US is still short just over 3.2 BBF of operable capacity to quickly fill Canadian lumber supply and still meet current demand levels. In other words, at current demand levels, the US softwood lumber market does not clear without Canadian supply.
We’re proud to share that in 2024 the Tree Frog Forestry News readership surged by an impressive 44%, reaching 105,411 unique users (per Google Analytics)! This remarkable growth far outpaces our average annual increase of ~20% over the past decade. Even more, our audience is becoming increasingly continental: in 2020, 22% of our readers were US-based, but by 2024, that number climbed to 39%. Canada still leads at 51%, with the remaining 10% representing international readers from the UK, Australia, Japan, India, and beyond.
BC Wood’s 22nd Annual Global Buyers Mission (GBM) opened in Whistler, BC on Friday morning, with Premier David Eby declaring the tradeshow floor open and underscoring the value-added sector’s critical role in British Columbia’s economy and its importance to international markets. …Nearly 600 participants attended this year’s gathering, including specifiers, government representatives, and international buyers from across Asia and beyond. BC Wood CEO Brian Hawrysh welcomed the attendees… and Board chairperson Kelly Marciniw of Zirnhelt Timber Frames, introduced the 
Forestry Innovation Investment (FII) is proud to share our “Year in Review”, a compilation of market development activities completed by FII and our many industry, association, government, academic, and research partners over the past year. Throughout 2024/25, B.C.’s forest sector faced significant headwinds, as difficult industry and market dynamics were compounded by trade threats. Despite these ongoing challenges, the forest sector continues to play a vital role in B.C.’s economy and remains a key global supplier of sustainable forest products and advanced wood building systems. To support a resilient forest economy, FII and its partners are actively working to diversify markets for B.C. forest products both domestically and internationally—a goal that has become increasingly important amid current trade uncertainty. Our commitment to a collaborative delivery approach means we build on the strengths and shared resources that other organizations bring to this important work.
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With roughly 2,000 wildfires in B.C. each year, forestry workers are often operating in or near fire-affected areas. It’s up to employers to ensure their crews are properly trained and prepared to recognize the risks and respond safely. …Employers are responsible for identifying hazards, assessing risks, and ensuring effective controls are in place — along with providing training, supervision, and fit-for-use equipment.
New film reveals the roots of B.C.’s wildfire crisis—and what we must do to stop it. A powerful new documentary exploring the causes and consequences of British Columbia’s escalating wildfire crisis will premiere to the public at the Mary Irwin Theatre in Kelowna on Tuesday, June 24 at 7:00 pm and at the Vernon Performing Arts Centre Thursday June 26 at 7:00 pm. Titled B.C. is Burning, the 45-minute film delivers a sobering but hopeful look at what’s fueling today’s megafires—and the science-based solutions that could protect our forests, our communities, and our future. B.C. is Burning was independently produced and funded through community support, with Homestead Foods generously contributing half of the total budget. We also gratefully acknowledge major support from Skyline Helicopters, Padoin Reforestation, and Kalesnikoff.
British Columbia is world renowned for its incredible wilderness landscape, mountains, rivers, lakes and forests. It’s a great place to live, work and play. Our forests are regionally diverse – from coastal and interior rainforests, dry belt pine and fir forest and higher elevation spruce and balsam, old growth and new growth – they all have one thing in common … trees! 
Whether working or playing, it is essential to be aware of a forest’s potential hazards and what can put you at risk, specifically as it relates to the trees. …“If a tree falls in the forest, does anyone hear?” … only if someone is near enough to hear. The same applies to the danger it may pose. If no one is near it, then even if it falls, it isn’t a danger to anyone. Spend enough time in a forest and you will witness a tree fall over on its own.
These weekly resources are simple yet powerful tools to help keep safety conversations alive and evolving in your workplace. BCFSC offers a library of hundreds of Crew Talks each designed to support short, focused safety discussions in five minutes or less. They support effective supervisor-worker engagement, helping spark meaningful conversations about current safety procedures and concerns.
People who work outdoors can often be at the highest risk for heat-related illnesses and injuries during hot summer conditions. High temperatures and sunshine can be a wonderful thing when enjoying time at the lake or on the beach but can cause serious health issues. The wide variety of job roles and often rigorous physical activity in forestry can put workers at risk for heat-related illness if not managed properly.
Managing psychological health and safety in the workplace is as important as managing physical health and safety. A psychologically healthy and safe workplace prevents harm to workers’ mental health and promotes mental well-being. While many factors outside the workplace can affect mental health, it is an employer’s responsibility to address the factors that are within the control, responsibility, or influence of the workplace. Psychological health and safety involves how people interact with each other daily, how working conditions and management practices are structured, and how decisions are made and communicated. In the forestry sector, workers face unique psychological challenges, including financial stress from an unstable market, job instability, social isolation, and the impact of climate change and severe weather conditions.
They are also required to conduct regular emergency and first aid drills as part of their annual drill requirements to ensure workers understand their roles and responsibilities. As forestry operations in BC move into more remote and rugged areas, getting help to an injured worker quickly can be a serious challenge. …To help companies build stronger ERPs—especially when it comes to worker extraction—the BC Forest Safety Council and the Trucking and Harvesting Advisory Group created a video series.
Noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) is not just a long-term risk, it’s a fast-growing occupational disease that affects workers across the province. Over the past decade, WorkSafeBC has accepted almost 2,000 claims for hearing loss in the forestry sector. To prevent hearing loss, employers in the forestry sector must proactively recognize risks and understand the specific tasks workers will undertake, making pre-work planning a key step in injury prevention. The impact of noise on hearing “The risk of hearing loss depends on both noise level and exposure time,” says Sasha Brown, an occupational audiologist with WorkSafeBC. “For example, brief exposure to extremely loud noise or sustained exposure to moderate levels can be equally damaging to hearing.”
All resource road users play a key role in ensuring safe passage on these roads. Always exercise caution and have an understanding of the risks. Most resource roads have gravel surfaces and are often single lanes with limited visibility due to roadside brush and sharp, winding turns and curves. They often have soft shoulders, minimal ditches, steeper grades, changing road surfaces with loose or rough gravel and potholes. Drivers should always read and understand the signs at the start of the road and along the way as they provide important information about the road, radio channel, restrictions, expected traffic and other hazards and obstacles you may encounter while driving.
BC Hydro data shows that severe weather events in the last 3 to 5 years have led to some of the most damaging storms in BC Hydro’s history. BC’s forest health aerial surveys show that the area of windthrown timber in 2021 (12,600+ ha) was 3 times the average over the last decade. Wind events pose significant risks to people working on and traveling to and from woodlots and community forests. This bulletin provides licensees, managers and workers with guidance and resources they can use to plan and conduct operations that minimize risk of injury to workers during those events.
The following focuses on considerations for supervisors and owners when developing a PPE program. Components of a good PPE program include: Regulation Check; Planning; Appropriate Selection; Fitting; Education and Training; Supervisor and Management Support; Inspection and Maintenance; and Auditing the Program. Get all the details by clicking the Read More!
By implementing ergonomic practices, promoting proper body mechanics and fostering a culture of early reporting and prevention, employers and workers can work together to significantly reduce the occurrence and impact of MSIs across the industry. Although musculoskeletal injuries can affect workers across all areas of forestry, certain roles are particularly vulnerable due to the physical demands and repetitive nature of their tasks.
Steep slope harvesting can be approached in several ways, each with its own set of challenges and safety considerations. …Steep slope harvesting presents significant risks, but with careful planning, proper equipment, and a culture of safety, these risks can be managed. “Safety is not a one-time effort but an ongoing process that requires daily attention,” says Pawlowski. “By consistently prioritizing hazard assessment, equipment suitability, proper setup, and staying in the clear, employers and workers can minimize risks and help ensure that steep slope harvesting remains a safe and effective method of timber harvesting.”
Here again in 2025, phase congestion has become a heightened concern as forestry operations are scrambling to produce in the face of uncertainty which could lead to dangerous situations for workers. History has proven that during uncertain times, productivity becomes the main driver, not for all contractors, but for some, and safety can be put on the backburner which puts everyone at risk, even those who put safety first.
Professionals working in the lumber and sawmill sector and looking to advance their careers can gain specialized training through BCIT’s Associate Certificate in Industrial Wood Processing, starting June 2025. The IWP program was developed with industry subject matter experts and informed by industry leaders to support upskilling and professional development within the sector. The program is 1-year, delivered online and part-time to allow students to balance work and studies.
The BC Truck Loggers Association is pleased to share and invite you to access the newly developed B.C. Timber Harvest Rate Model. The tool was built using data provided by contractors as a joint project of the TLA, ILA and NWLA. The tool calculates the hourly rates for equipment used in BC’s forest industry. It’s designed to give contractors a baseline rate for a selected piece of equipment, serving as a starting point. The rates in the model reflect the required revenues of a contractor who runs a reasonably efficient operation; however, they may vary based on specific operations. The parameters (such as labour and fuel) can be adjusted in the model to calculate rates tailored to specific needs.
The U.S. Commerce Department today announced new preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber imports of 20%. …The duties won’t become final until August, when final determinations are expected to be made. …The new preliminary duties is just the first shot across the bow in what is expected to be a nasty trade war, with additional tariffs that may be layered on top of duties. …Anti-dumping and countervailing duties have been in place on Canadian softwood lumber at varying levels since 2017, following the expiration of the last softwood lumber agreement in 2015. The duties on Canadian softwood lumber have been effective in shrinking Canada’s market share… from about 35% in 2016, to about 24% as of the end of 2024.
Vancouver —Forest Professionals British Columbia (FPBC) honoured 11 individuals as part of its recognition program in Victoria on February 6. FPBC recognized four Distinguished Forest Professionals, one Forest Professional of the Year, one volunteer of the year, and five authors for best magazine article at the 77th FPBC forestry conference recognition banquet. Mark Hay, RPF, of Vernon, Steve Kozuki, RPF(Ret), of Williams Lake, Randy Waterous, RFT, of Grand Forks, and the late Cindy Stern, RPF, of Parksville, were honoured as Distinguished Forest Professionals. This category recognizes significant accomplishments over a career, for providing outstanding service to the profession of forestry and for furthering the principles of FPBC. It is the profession’s highest honour for a registrant. Colin Mahony, PhD, RPF, of Victoria, is the Forest Professional of the Year, recognizing a Registered Professional Forester (RPF), Registered Forest Technologist (RFT), or Affiliated Forest Professional (AFP) for recent, outstanding service to the profession of forestry and furthering the principles of FPBC.
…Mikko Antsalo began by stating, “Softwood pulp markets are projected to remain well-balanced,” citing steady demand growth and the absence of new capacity announcements as stabilizing factors. He concluded by reinforcing Metsä Fibre’s preparedness for the future: “We offer customers an optimized supply chain, fossil-free production, and are well positioned to fulfill upcoming sustainability requirements.” 
Jonathan Rhone, CEO of CO280, began by stating that “capturing and permanently sequestering biogenic CO₂ from boiler stack emissions represents a $100 billion per year market opportunity for the global pulp and paper sector.” The market, he said, is being created by global technology and financial firms—“Microsoft, JPMorgan, Google”—that are purchasing high-durability carbon dioxide removals (CDRs) to meet their net zero obligations.
…Parker Budding, representing Osapiens, followed with a presentation on how pulp producers can prepare for the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which comes into force on December 31, 2025. The regulation prohibits companies from placing products on the EU market unless they can prove the goods are deforestation-free and legally produced.
