Expert warns new lumber tariffs could derail new home construction comeback

By Matt Sexton
Mortgage Professional America Magazine
September 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Russ Taylor

A recent unexpected drop in Canadian lumber prices and futures market, combined with declining mortgage rates, has potentially provided an opportunity for the struggling new home construction market to pick back up. So far, that opportunity hasn’t turned into increased building permits, housing starts, or builder confidence. …Russ Taylor said “The one thing we’re still waiting for is this Section 232 investigation for wood and timber and wood derivatives for all countries”. “That’s got a few people spooked. If they put tariffs on top of duties, this makes everything even worse for lumber.” While builder confidence remained low, there is some hope that lower interest rates might help. …“We’re probably six months out from seeing very high prices again, as mills start to build order files and buyers come back to the market,” Taylor said. But there are so many unknowns. Where is the US economy heading? What’s going to happen with higher inflation?

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