How might tariffs affect housing construction?

UBS Wealth Management
April 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

This is the USD 64,000 question. …What we currently know is that Canadian softwood lumber carries a 14.5% tariff rate, which could expand to 34.45% later in 2025. …If we split the difference between the NAHB’s and FEA’s estimates, the average sized new home consumes 34,000 bf of lumber. As such, should the tariff increase to 34.45%. …,Should the administration levy an additional 25% “immigration and Fentanyl tariff” on Canadian lumber (which is currently exempt), the cost/home would rise to approximately USD 1,100/home. …In reality, total wood usage in home construction includes a variety of wood types including softwood lumber, oriented strand board, engineered lumber and plywood. Each category has its own pricing and supply dynamics. One additional point… It is estimated that the repair and remodel (R&R) market accounts for 35-40% of lumber demand while single-family home construction accounts for an additional 35%. …For more on the latest real estate trends, see the CIO report.

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