The Federal Reserve’s primary price gauge rose at its highest level since 2023, reinforcing the central bank’s recent tough talk on inflation. Excluding food and energy, the personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 3.4% annual rate after rising 0.3% for the month. The annual core reading was the highest since October 2023. For the all-items reading, the PCE index showed inflation running at a seasonally adjusted 4.1% annual rate, the highest since April 2023, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday. …Traders continued to expect the Fed to approve a rate hike in September, though they lowered odds slightly. Energy again provided the largest source of price gains, with related goods and services prices up 4% for the month. Housing cost rose 0.3%, while financial services and insurance jumped 1.2%. …Even with the elevated inflation levels, consumer spending for the month came in stronger than expected. 

Elevated mortgage rates, rising inflation and economic uncertainty kept many buyers out of the market in May as consumers and builders continue to deal with challenging affordability conditions. While monthly sales activity softened, builders continue to operate in a market characterized by cautious buyers and persistent financing constraints. Sales of newly built single-family homes fell 7.3% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 units, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This represented a 6.8% decline compared to a year earlier. New single-family home inventory totaled 496,000 units in May, up 2.3% from the prior month but down 1.4% from a year earlier. At the current sales pace, the months’ supply of new homes stood at an elevated 10.3 months, above the 9.7 months recorded one year ago.

US sawmill production fell in the first quarter, the second consecutive quarter of lower output. Sawmill output has remained largely flat since 2023, after increasing in the post-pandemic period. The utilization rate for sawmills and wood preservation industries was 71.8% on a four-quarter moving average, up from 71.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The sawmill utilization rate, a measure of actual production relative to potential full production moved upward over 2025 as capacity for sawmills fell. Sawmill production, based on a four-quarter moving average, was 0.4% lower in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter but remained higher than a year ago by 1.7%. US sawmills’ full production capacity, an estimation of what could have been produced if running at full production capability, was down 6.0% from a year ago. Lumber prices rose slightly in the first quarter. …Employment in sawmill and wood preservation industries continued to fall, dropping to roughly 82,800 workers in the first quarter. 

A closely watched inflation report is set to reveal how much price growth picked up in May — and whether many American consumers remain mired in an affordability crunch. Wall Street forecasters expected the pace of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) to have quickened compared with April data amid higher oil prices and stronger consumer spending. The monthly PCE report is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has said the central bank is committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target — a level it has failed to reach for the past five years. Wall Street now anticipates the Fed will raise its key interest rate at least once by year’s end in a bid to counteract the stronger price growth.