As a federal election kicks off, the trade war with the US is casting a long shadow over voters’ choices, and whoever forms the next government will have the tall order of trying to draw this conflict to a close. …International trade experts say that will be much easier said than done. The two economies are more integrated than ever before, and President Donald Trump’s chaotic governing style makes it extremely difficult to know how to even begin to unravel this dispute. …Carney met with the country’s premiers and leaders from long-time allies in other countries to chart a short- and long-term response to the tariffs. He has conceded there’s a limit to how much Canada can do to respond. …Russell Williams at Memorial University said because Trump keeps threatening Canada’s existence, a political, rhetorical de-escalation is essential before any compromise on trade can be reached. 

WASHINGTON — Canada consistently claims that their softwood lumber producers are not subsidized and therefore should have unfettered access to the US market. Yet every Administration since the Reagan Administration has investigated the softwood lumber trade issue with the same conclusion: import duties are warranted because Canadian lumber producers engage in unfair trade practices that harm US companies and workers. …”Canada’s continuous feigned outrage at U.S. anti-subsidy measures is remarkable theater,” stated Andrew Miller of Stimson Lumber Company . “Just last week, Canada announced new subsidy programs for its softwood lumber producers.” …”The US lumber industry are the ones who should be outraged,” added Miller. …”The American lumber industry has the capacity to supply nearly all US lumber demand, and with the tariff measures being contemplated by President Trump, the US industry can, over time, supply 100% of the US softwood lumber need,” said Zoltan van Heyningen.

Yesterday, we featured Part II of our in-depth Q&A with political risk expert Robert McKellar, a follow-up to an August 2024 op-ed that sparked a much-needed conversation in the forest sector. A few weeks ago, in Part I of our follow-up, we explored the return of President Trump, his leadership style, and why political risk—once seen as a problem for unstable regions—is now very real for Canadian forest companies. McKellar identified major political forces impacting the Canadian forest sector—including the growing China-West rivalry and Canada-US trade friction—to help companies assess the relevance of political risk for themselves.

Part II, just published, picks up where we left off. It tackles the latest developments on duties and tariffs, asks whether Canadian-owned U.S. subsidiaries are in Washington’s crosshairs, and examines how U.S.-China trade friction could shape lumber demand. Yesterday’s announcement, that Trumps tariffs may be more targeted than initially threatened, simply adds to the uncertainty. …This isn’t your typical policy commentary—it’s a practical guide for companies looking to anticipate, adapt to, and even leverage political disruption. Although it’s a long read, we think it’s an important one.