US Commerce Secretary Lutnick expects a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum on Wednesday, but lumber and dairy tariffs not until April 2nd. In related news: Canada’s next prime minister faces US trade war; Ottawa announces $6.5B aid for businesses effected; Canfor looks to diversify its markets; and Peter Harrell says the US trade action lacks legal foundation. Meanwhile: US lumber futures slide on tariff delay; and a made-in-USA futures rate is coming for Southern yellow pine.
In other Business news: Nova Scotia awaits feasibility study for new pulp mill; Williams Lake, BC power plant closure is averted; and the EU Commission investigates plywood imports from Brazil. In Forestry/Climate news: UBC Forestry to study cultural and prescribed burning; new research reveals how US forests have changed over time; and logging updates from Oregon; Arizona, Vermont; and South Dakota.
Finally, Bruce St. John opines on Canada Wood’s decades-long market diversification efforts.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog News Editor
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled he doesn’t expect a reprieve on 25% tariffs for steel and aluminum imports scheduled to take effect on Wednesday. The levies, ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump in February, include imports from Canada and Mexico — which are among the top foreign suppliers — and apply to finished metal products, too. U.S. steelmakers have urged Trump to resist exemptions to the tariffs, which risk hitting US companies that use aluminum and steel. Administration officials have said the policy is aimed at cracking down on efforts by countries including Russia and China to bypass existing duties. Last week, Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico but later walked back some of the changes — offering a one-month reprieve to automakers and then expanding that pause to all imported goods covered by the free-trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico.
This year’s COFI convention will tackle the most pressing challenge facing BC’s forest sector – predictable access to fibre. Without this, BC’s global competitiveness and the family-supporting jobs forestry provides remain at risk. There is a path forward. Within the sustainable Allowable Annual Cut there are opportunities to surpass a minimum target of 45 million cubic meters of harvest while maintaining environmental stewardship. Achieving these outcomes will require changes to BC Timber Sales (BCTS), innovative approaches to forest landscape planning, stronger partnerships with First Nations, and community-led solutions. Join us for a solutions-oriented discussion, featuring distinguished experts: George Abbott, Treaty Commissioner, Former BC Cabinet Minister & Member, BC Timber Sales Review Task Force; David Elstone, Managing Director, Spar Tree Group; Makenzie Leine, Vice President, Business Development, A&A Trading; Jennifer Gunter, Executive Director, BC Community Forest Association; moderated by Michael Armstrong, VP and Chief Forester at COFI.
Thousands of US companies opened for business on Friday with no idea whether they had to pay tariffs. …In imposing the tariffs, Mr. Trump misused the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Congress passed IEEPA to give presidents tools to respond quickly to emergencies like wars or terrorist attacks. …IEEPA has never been used for tariffs, and courts should rule that it can’t be. …US trade laws require the president to identify and investigate specific trade practices that harm the U.S. and then propose remedies, such as tariffs or negotiations. A president may impose tariffs on specific goods if fact-finding determines that imports threaten US national security. Mr. Trump’s reasons for imposing tariffs on Canada don’t appear to satisfy these standards. …Faced with Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, Canadian, Mexican and European officials have indicated that they are open to collective action against China, the world’s biggest exporter and a major source of US trade deficits. [to access the full story, a WSJ subscription is required]
US lumber futures have fallen from their all-time highs after president Trump’s delay to tariffs on Canada this week halted a surge in prices. Contracts tracking a truckload of lumber hit the highest point in their 30-month history this week. …Trump initially planned to impose 25% tariffs on critical Canadian imports, boosting prices, but Thursday’s pause for a month pushed prices for delivery in May down more than 6% over two days, to $651 per MBF. Even so, prices remain elevated as Trump also ordered a federal investigation into Canadian companies potentially dumping excess supplies into the US market. …Together with potential tariffs, the total duty on Canadian imports could rise from 14.5 per cent to 52 per cent. “This is going to be devastating for Canadian producers,” said Dustin Jalbert, senior economist for wood products at price reporting agency Fastmarkets. “No Canadian producer is making the margin to be able to absorb that.”
Lumber producers have migrated from Canada to the US South. Now lumber-futures trading is heading to the Southern pineries as well. The exchange operator CME Group said it would launch trading in Southern yellow pine futures on March 31, a response to rising export taxes on Canadian lumber. The futures contracts—ticker: SYP—will give the South’s loblolly planters, loggers, sawmills, pressure treaters and builders a mechanism to manage their exposure to price swings that is more in line with the local market than existing futures. …Traders and the exchange have for years discussed Southern yellow pine futures as the region’s production grew. Now that Northern lumber is a lot more expensive, they are saying the time is right. …Southern yellow pine doesn’t always work as a substitute for the Northern species favored by home builders. But executives said the growing price difference is prompting pockets of buyers to swap.
These are the headlines you’ll find in this month’s newsletter:
Are clear-cuts in forestry bad? I would say no. Nature demands that there is a mosaic of age classes to support conservation of biodiversity. …Wildfire “clearcuts” following insect invasion, disease, wind or old old trees aging out in many forests. …Logging and tree planting have proven logged clear-cuts are a gentler treatment for refreshing forests when compared to traumatic wildfires. On top of the biodiversity and conservation benefits, we get socioeconomic benefits of forest products and employment and resulting government services and infrastructure. …In certain areas where trees are shade tolerant, such as in Interior Douglas Fir areas, various types of selection may be prescribed to fit the ecology of the site. Biodiversity provides for all species in a mosiac of different types across the landscape. Look outside, it is not one continuous environment.
The Trump administration touted logging as the next frontier in job creation and wildfire prevention, but those goals will face confounding challenges. Trump issued two executive orders on March 1: the first to boost timber production on federal land and the second to address wood product imports. The moves were cheered by the timber industry. “These are common sense directives,” said Travis Joseph, president of the American Forest Resource Council, a timber industry trade group. “Our federal forests have been mismanaged for decades and Americans have paid the price in almost every way – lost jobs, lost manufacturing, and infrastructure.” Timber groups and rural lawmakers also said the orders could help manage overstocked forests and reduce the threat of wildfire. But conservation groups and forestry experts say cutting down more trees doesn’t inherently reduce wildfire risk and can actually increase it. The plan also faces pushback about environmental concerns and economics.
…in the early 2000s, a group of scientists and businessmen began arguing that forest thinning was too much for the government to take on. If Arizona had any hope of decreasing the risk of catastrophic forest fire, private industry would have to play a part. From this debate emerged Arizona Forest Restoration Products, a company that had planned to make oriented strand board from the low-dollar trees. …But …the Forest Service unexpectedly awarded the contract in 2012 to Pioneer Associates, a group it favored, even if they were arguably less qualified and had gathered almost no funding for their proposal. …Pioneer quickly went defunct, and the company that took over its contract, Good Earth, only thinned a fraction of what it promised. …And a cautionary tale as we fall into a pattern of on-again, off-again federal infrastructure funding cuts and threatened tariffs, which were enacted and then delayed on Canada and Mexico until April.
Federal officials are preparing to disband an advisory committee tasked with guiding policies for millions of acres of national forests in the Pacific Northwest. …The 21 members of the Northwest Forest Plan federal advisory committee… have been meeting since summer 2023, hashing out how to tackle wildfires, pests and diseases across nearly 25 million acres of national forests in Oregon, Washington and Northern California. On Thursday, officials with the US Forest Service told committee members the agency was likely to dissolve the group in the coming weeks. Some members said they had been expecting this news. …The Forest Service pulled the committee together to help amend the decades-old Northwest Forest Plan, a set of policies that came out of the timber wars of the 1980s and ’90s. …The committee delivered its recommendations to the Forest Service last year.
Eastwood Forests has deployed slightly more than half of its debut fund through deals that have included acquisitions in Costa Rica, Panama and Canada. North Carolina-headquartered Eastwood announced its acquisition of 14,500 ha of northern Vancouver Island timberland from Western Forest Products for $69.2 million in February. …Eastwood VP for transactions Prab Dahal said “Western has done a good job in managing the forests but our philosophies are slightly different in that we probably would not have as much openings and as much clear-cuts as Western did in the past,” said Dahal. …“It has more versatility than the typical natural forest that we look for elsewhere,” said Dahal. “We can manage this purely for carbon and still do good, or manage purely as a plantation and continuously manage with a harvesting level that is sustainable and can do good, financially, for our investors.” …Eastwood was established in 2022. 