Daily News for January 05, 2026

Today’s Takeaway

The first half of 2026 will look a lot like 2025 for most forest products

The Tree Frog Forestry News
January 5, 2026
Category: Today's Takeaway

The first half of 2026 will look a lot like 2025 for most forest products—says Kevin Mason of ERA Forest Products Research. In related news: BC Premier Eby reflects on a tumultuous 2025; Michael McCullough says 2026 looks to offer BC more trade uncertainty; New Brunswick premier Holt wants a softwood lumber deal; and Canada’s kitchen cabinet makers say US tariffs are still crippling despite Trump’s recent postponement of his planned rate increases

In other news: a BC First Nation looks to carve a niche with mass timber; PowerWood Canada has pellet mill plans in Alberta; West Fraser amalgamates its five Alberta subsidiaries; and Wisconsin hopes to secure a wood-based aviation fuel plant. Meanwhile: two perspectives on BC’s legal reality on Land Title and DRIPA; old growth push-back in Quebec and BC; and the USDA plans to update its reporting rules for foreign-based forest land owners.

Finally, why old books smell so good, according to science.

Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog News Editor

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Opinion / EdiTOADial

For Most Forest Products The First Half Of 2026 Will Look A Lot Like 2025: ERA Forest Products Research

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
January 1, 2026
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

Economic Outlook: Risks abound for 2026 and beyond but we see little chance of upside surprises for global GDP growth next year. Instead, we forecast modest declines in both US and Chinese GDP in 2026, with the Eurozone growth rate nudging up slightly from depressed levels. US-driven tariffs will stabilize but remain a drag and may become the norm for the next three years. As we’ve noted before, demand won’t be driving upside for the forest sector. Interest rate relief in the US continues to lag earlier expectations (with two further, 25bps cuts expected next year), and a US housing recovery will likely be pushed out to the second half of 2026 at the earliest (potentially 2027). A further weakening of the USD relative to other major currencies will create additional headwinds for US-based producers focused on exports but should also put downward pressure on US imports. 

Forest Products Outlook: For most markets, the first half of 2026 will look a lot like 2025, with oversupply resulting in weak prices and lacklustre earnings. Highlights include:

  • Housing starts will slip next year to 1.33MM as mortgage rates are expected to move only moderately lower. Affordability issues persist.
  • Log prices should trend sideways, with some markets up and others down. Demand from China could rise as its US log ban has ended.
  • Lumber prices will move up in 2026 as supply reductions related to high costs (duties, tariffs, etc.) begin to bite harder.
  • Panel prices are likely to remain rather low in 2026 due to OSB (particularly) facing oversupply issues as a couple of mills ramp up.
  • Pulp prices hinge on supply dynamics; the situation has changed as China has boosted its internal supply. Although prices are moving off their lows, shuts are needed to maintain upward momentum.
  • Newsprint demand will drop by double digits next year, but, with some mills currently offline, prices should hold until supply restarts.
  • Paper prices will be mixed, with expectations for an increase in uncoated woodfrees; most other grades should hold at/near year-end levels. The removal of tariffs would push prices lower.
  • Containerboard producers are expected to drive a price hike in Q1 given the massive capacity shuts this year. Demand will remain sluggish, but rising box shipments aren’t needed to support hikes.

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Business & Politics

Tariffs ‘still crippling,’ Canada’s cabinet makers say as increase paused

By Kelly Geraldine Malone
The Canadian Press in Global News
January 2, 2026
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

The Canadian Kitchen Cabinet Association (CKCA) is welcoming US President Trump’s postponement of tariff increases on furniture, cabinets and vanities, but the industry is still being devastated by the duties. Trump hit the industry with 25% tariffs in October but paused a promised increase of 30% for furniture and 50% for cabinets and vanities that was set to take effect this week. Canadian Kitchen Cabinet Association VP Luke Elias says the levies have caused layoffs already. He has said the federal government’s Buy Canadian procurement policy has helped, but more needs to be done.“CKCA calls upon the Federal Government to continue with productive negotiations on behalf of our industry.” Manitoba-based Elias Woodwork employs more than 400 people and exports around 80% of its product to the United States.

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Trump postpones tariff hikes on furniture, kitchen cabinets for a year

By John Liu
CNN Business
December 31, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump has delayed new tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities for a year, pushing their implementation to 2027, according to a White House statement. Trump signed a proclamation hours before the end of 2025, postponing the tariff hikes on these items, which were originally due to take effect on Thursday. In September, Trump ordered 25% new tariffs on kitchen cabinets and upholstered furniture. Those took effect in October, with rates slated to rise to 50% and 30%, respectively, by 2026. The Wednesday order delays the significant increase, leaving tariffs on these goods at 25% for the time being. …The Trump administration has come under mounting criticism for failing to stabilize prices. …In September, Trump justified his tariffs on these wood products as well as on timber and lumber on national security grounds, and the need to protect domestic wood industry.

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Manitobans likely to see higher premiums, limited insurance options after devastating wildfire season: expert

By Rosanna Hempel
CBC News
January 5, 2026
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada West

Manitobans should expect higher cabin and home insurance premiums in 2026, one expert says, after a 2025 fire season that destroyed at least 130 properties in the province and forced more than 32,000 people to leave their communities. Owners may also encounter new caps on payouts or exclusions in their policies that won’t cover certain hazards or parts of a property, or may find insurers will not provide coverage at all, said Jason Thistlethwaite, an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo’s school of environment, enterprise and development. “Insurance is a business, and they’re going to be looking to recoup those losses,” said Thistlethwaite, who studies the economic impacts of climate risk and natural disasters.

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Two wood pellet manufacturing facilities planned for Northern Alberta

The Woodworking Network
December 30, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

MACKENZIE COUNTY, Alberta — An agreement with Calgary-based PowerWood Canada Corp. will bring two new wood pellet manufacturing facilities to the Mackenzie County region in Northern Alberta, Canada. Josh Knelsen, Mackenzie County Reeve, announced Dec. 23 the agreement. “This is a leading-edge, first-of-its-kind project in Canada that turns wildfire-damaged wood into clean energy and helps reduce reliance on coal,” said Knelsen. The two facilities represent the potential for up to 300 direct jobs,” with many more across forestry, construction, transportation, and local businesses. …Construction on two sites is expected to begin by mid-2026. …The facilities will also see the introduction of Canada’s first steam explosion pellet production process – developed by leading industrial systems engineers Valmet and capable of producing black wood biofuel pellets with 94% less carbon release than coal. …PowerWood Canada plans to open a second Alberta plant and has developed expansion plans for further plants in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

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B.C. economic outlook 2026: From trade wars to tariffs—8 forces shaping the year ahead

By Michael McCullough
BC Business Magazine
January 1, 2026
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Michael McCullough

We knew we were in for a rough year in 2025, but not how rough. We hadn’t factored in the breadth and intensity of the incoming Trump administration’s trade actions. As we look forward to 2026, we can expect more of the same, including a likely fraught Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) renegotiation. On the plus side, most economic forecasts suggest the business cycle has bottomed and should improve, if slowly, henceforward. …For all the fear and loathing over “Liberation Day” last April and the targeting of the softwood lumber industry, Canada has come away relatively unscathed from U.S. trade action, with 85 to 90 percent of Canadian exports to the U.S. continuing to cross the border tariff-free. Whether that free pass stays in place depends on negotiations to extend or replace CUSMA, which comes up for renewal in July. Based on past experience with the Trump administration, the process will not go smoothly.

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The continental trade pact is up for review in 2026 — here’s what Trump might want

The Canadian Presss in the Daily Commercial News
January 2, 2026
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

WASHINGTON — A mandatory review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico-Agreement on trade kicks into high gear this year as US President Trump continues his campaign to realign global trade and poach key industries from America’s closest neighbours. …Since the president’s return to the White House, however, confidence in CUSMA’s future has waned. Trade with Canada may not be front of mind for Trump, said Fen Osler Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa and co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations. It’s more like the “proverbial iceberg,” he said. “It’s what you don’t see that matters. And that’s the kind of hidden economic wiring of a very deep and highly interdependent relationship.” …Trump has complained repeatedly about long-standing irritants in the United States’ trade relationship with Canada — the supply management system for dairy products, the alleged subsidization of the softwood lumber sector, other non-tariff barriers.

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Tariffs, mill closures and reconciliation: Eby reflects on a tumultuous year in B.C.

By Erin Haluschak
Chek News
December 31, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

David Eby

What started as online threats from US President Trump ended with tangible consequences for BC, Premier David Eby says, as steep tariffs on timber pushed the province into economic triage in 2025. In a year end interview with CHEK’s Rob Shaw, Eby describes the past year as “wild,” with huge pressure placed on the forestry sector in particular, he notes. “We had the pine beetle, we had the wildfire, we have low prices. There’s significant reform that’s needed. And instead of focusing on that reform, we’re in kind of triage mode of responding to 46% tariffs. …In terms of forestry, Eby notes his government’s first priority in the sector is to provide stability, reassurance and support for families that have lost jobs, particularly with the closure of the Crofton mill. Workers will remain on site through early spring, Eby says, giving time to determine the next phase for what is considered a valuable industrial property.

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West Fraser amalgamating five Alberta subsidiaries including Sundre location

By Simon Ducatel
The Albertain
January 1, 2026
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

SUNDRE, Alberta – The general manager of what will soon become the former West Fraser – Sundre Forest Products said there will be no impact on staff or operations amid a corporate reorganizing. According to a December letter to vendors, West Fraser is “undertaking an internal corporate reorganization, whereby Blue Ridge Lumber, Spray Lake Sawmills, Crowsnest Forest Products, Sundre Forest Products, and Manning Forest Products will be amalgamated into one company and renamed West Fraser Alberta Wood Products Ltd.” The new entity is to remain a wholly-owned subsidiary of West Fraser Mills Ltd., and the amalgamation and rebranding will be effective as of end of day on Dec. 31. “There’s zero impact to operations,” said Jason Foote. “This restructure is administrative”.

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‘Things will get better’ forestry minister says of sector’s future

By Matt Prokopchuk
The Bay Today
January 3, 2026
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Kevin Holland

EAR FALLS — It’s still uncertain times for forestry in Northwestern Ontario, but the provincial minister for the sector says his government is on the right track to help heading into the new year. …“Forestry, we know, has got some challenges right now … with regards to some of the duties and tariffs that are coming from south of the border and the impact it’s having,” Associate Minister of Forestry and Forest Products Kevin Holland said. “But it really goes beyond the duty and tariff rates that have been imposed.” …“We’re seeing people are being a little bit more cautious, a little bit more reserved on doing some of those plans and construction plans that they had,” Holland said of the uncertain state of things. …“Things will get better, there will be that turn,” he said. “But we need to make sure that we’re in that position to take full advantage of those opportunities when they present themselves.”

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New Brunswick premier says province needs tariff deal on softwood lumber soon

By Sean Mott
CTV News
December 30, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Susan Holt

NEW BRUNSWICK — After months of negotiations, Canada still doesn’t have a deal to reduce or eliminate the 45% tariffs on softwood lumber from the United States, leaving industries across the country to grapple with tough financial decisions as they head into 2026. The New Brunswick industry in particular has been rocked by these tariffs, and Premier Susan Holt says they need a deal soon as thousands of jobs are at risk. “Folks have been working really hard to avoid layoffs in the face of 45% tariffs, but they can’t hold that position for much longer,” Holt told CTV News Atlantic’s Todd Battis during a year-end interview. “What we need is a deal. We need Ottawa to go to Washington and negotiate to get those tariffs off.” …“There’s urgency to get a deal done.”

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Wood, Paper & Green Building

First Nation in B.C. develops prefabricated housing system from locally-sourced wood

By Hanna Petersen
CBC News
January 2, 2026
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada, Canada West

FORT ST. JAMES, BC — A home described as the first of its kind now stands in the Nak’azdli Whuten community near Fort St. James, BC. The home is a prototype for an Indigenous-led housing system that uses low-grade locally-sourced wood to produce prefabricated housing kits for northern communities. The concept is to take trees from the local territory, mill them locally, and then have local workers use that lumber to build panels, which are then used to construct a house in a matter of days. …The pilot project was born out of a collaboration between Nak’azdli Whuten Development Corp. and Deadwood Innovations, a forestry startup based in Fort St. James. They partnered with researchers at the University of Northern British Columbia’s Wood Innovation Research Lab to develop the prefabricated mass timber panel system.

Additional coverage in the Vancouver Sun by Derrick Penner: Indigenous development company looks to carve niche in mass-timber housing construction in rural B.C.

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Why old books smell so good, according to science

The Times of India
January 5, 2026
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: International

The smell of an old book … escapes as a cover is eased open or a stiff page lifted, settling briefly in the air between hand and paper. In libraries and second-hand shops, it is a faint but persistent smell… It is often associated with comfort and habit, yet it has a material basis. Conservators and chemists treat it as evidence of physical change. Paper, ink, glue, and binding age continuously, releasing compounds that remain present long after printing. What is sensed is the slow chemistry of use and storage. …Paper accounts for much of the smell associated with old books. From the nineteenth century onwards, most paper was produced from wood pulp containing cellulose fires and lignin. Over time, these components undergo chemical change. Cellulose chains fracture and shorten. Lignin oxidises and breaks into smaller fragments. These processes release volatile organic compounds that drift from the page surface.

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Forestry

Destruction of B.C.’s old-growth forests puts our future in peril

Letter by Mackenzie Robin Gibson
The Vancouver Island Free Daily
January 3, 2026
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada West

My grandfather, Gordon Gibson Jr., taught me to speak up when I see injustice in the world, and I am seeing it now. I am absolutely furious regarding Premier Eby’s plans to destroy old-growth and primary forests. They are the lungs of our atmosphere, and cutting them down is not only an attack on our future, it’s anti-Canadian. The only possible benefit to the logging would be to make a few people richer, most of whom are not Canadian, and those people do not care about the longevity of our species. We are facing a major extinction event, at the end of which the planet will not be able to support human life. I ask the province to listen to the science, and to care about the people who you are tasked with caring for. Care about our futures, and our dreams. …Stop the deforestation of old growth, and save the lungs of our planet.

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Trevor Halford Is Wrong about Land Title and DRIPA. Here’s Why

By Adam Olsen
The Tyee
January 5, 2026
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

The BC Conservative leader fostered fear and falsehoods in his Vancouver Sun op-ed. [David Eby has no path forward on the most consequential file shaping BC’s future]. …Reconciliation with First Nations, questions about land title, and creating economic certainty are complex and urgent questions in our province. That is why I feel the need to respond to an opinion piece by Conservative Party of BC interim leader Trevor Halford, published in the Vancouver Sun on Dec. 27. I do so as a member of Tsartlip First Nation and former member of the legislative assembly for Saanich North and the Islands with a record of seeking solutions based on inclusion, equity and justice. … Halford’s argument in his Sun piece reveals either a fundamental misunderstanding or a wilful misrepresentation of B.C.’s legal reality. DRIPA does not create Indigenous title; the Canadian justice system was recognizing it decades before.

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Former forest ministry secretary speaks about industry’s future

By Mike Morris, former MLA, Prince George-Mackenzie, 2013 – 2024
The Campbell River Mirror
January 4, 2026
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada West

Mike Morris

Regarding a recent Canadian Press story  about a 1,000-year-old cedar tree that was harvested on Vancouver Island. It wasn’t the headline that caught my attention — although I am concerned over the harvesting of primary forests — but it was the forest minister’s comments that jumped out at me. In response to a question about the lack of economically available fibre in BC, he said, “It has nothing to do with government policy, it has nothing to do with reconciliation.” “It has everything to do with the fact that the trees aren’t there. They will come back, they will grow back. But they are not here right now.” Finally, an admission from government that the trees aren’t there. Why then did he and his entourage take a very expensive trip around the world trying to expand a market knowing we had no timber available? Everyone, including industry itself, has been aware of this for years. 

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Drift logs destroying intertidal ecosystems in B.C., study finds

By Caroline Barghout
CBC News
January 4, 2026
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

A new study by biologists at the University of Victoria has revealed why the simple back-and-forth motion of drift logs on B.C. beaches has destroyed critical ecosystems that keep the ocean healthy. … When the tides go out the logs go with them, and when they come in the logs crash onto rocks and beaches. “That intertidal zone … between the high tide and the low tide [supports] a tremendous diversity of life,” said Thomas Reimchen, adjunct professor at the University of Victoria. …The study published in the Marine Ecology journal, found that 20 to 80 per cent fewer barnacles on rocks that were exposed to logs, compared to protected crevices. The fewer the barnacles, the less food there is for species who rely on them. …They found a 520 per cent increase in drift logs since the late 19th century — including on remote shores — with more than half of them from the logging industry.

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B.C. mills processed more than one million cubic metres of wildfire chips in 2024-25

By Wolfgang Depner
The Canadian Press in Business in Vancouver
December 23, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

VICTORIA — The BC government says cutting red tape has allowed provincial pulp mills to more than double their use of timber salvaged from forest fires. The Ministry of Forests says in a statement that mills processed more than one million cubic metres of wildfire chips in 2024-25, up from 500,000 cubic metres in 2023, and representing about seven per cent of all processed wood. Forests Minister Ravi Parmar says that BC can’t let anything go to waste, including logs that have been burned in wildfires.” The statement says pulp mills rarely accepted burned timber before 2022, but both government and industry recognized the opportunity of turning wildfire-affected fibre into wood chips. It says that faster permitting and stronger partnerships between government and industry made it even easier to use that type of timber and the work will continue in 2026.

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A year of fighting wildfires in British Columbia

By Ministry of Forests
The Province of BC
December 29, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

In 2025, the BC Wildfire Service (BCWS) worked tirelessly with people and communities to fight wildfires and build community resilience throughout the province. “We’re coming off our second-worst wildfire season in Canadian history,” said Ravi Parmar, Minister of Forests. “From technology to equipment and training, all to protect people and communities, the BC Wildfire Service has shown us that they are a global leader in wildfire work. Thanks to the dedicated members working tirelessly to fight the threat of wildfire. In 2026, we will raise the bar even higher. …Since April 1, 2025, more than 1,350 wildfires burned an estimated 886,360 hectares of land in B.C. The 2025 season compared to the past five years:

  • 2024: 1,697 wildfires, 1,081,159 hectares burned
  • 2023: 2,293 wildfires, 2,840,104 hectares burned
  • 2022: 1,801 wildfires, 135,235 hectares burned
  • 2021: 1,647 wildfires, 869,300 hectares burned
  • 2020: 670 wildfires, 14, 536 hectares burned

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This unique forest is being considered for protection — yet Quebec has OK’d roadwork

By Aatefeh Padidar
CBC News
December 23, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada East

QUEBEC — A rare old-growth forest in Quebec’s Mauricie region is at the centre of a growing conflict between conservation advocates and the provincial government, after forestry roadwork was authorized in an area currently under review for protected status. The forest, known as the Grandbois Lakes forest, is located near Sainte-Thècle, in the Mékinac Regional County Municipality, northeast of Shawinigan. Composed largely of red spruce trees, the ecosystem is considered one of the last intact forests of its kind in southern Quebec. Despite its ecological value, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forests has approved the construction of a winter road through part of the forest — a step that could lead to logging in the coming months. The roadwork is slated to be carried out by the forestry company Forex Langlois. …Environmental groups and local residents gathered to oppose what they say is a threat to an irreplaceable ecosystem.

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New Land Ownership Reporting Rules Eyed by US Department of Agriculture

By Chris Clayton
The Progressive Farmer
December 29, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States

USDA on Monday published a notice in the Federal Register looking to update the reporting requirement for foreign land ownership under the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA). …The proposed changes come as Congress and state lawmakers have demanded more updates and better reporting on foreign ownership from USDA, spurred mainly by Chinese ownership of agricultural land. …USDA’s latest report on foreign agricultural land holdings shows people from outside the country own nearly 45 million acres of land, as of the end of 2023. That takes up about 3.5% of all privately-held agricultural land. Foreign holdings also increased by more than 1.5 million acres from 2022. Nearly half of foreign land holdings, 48%, are forest land, with 29% being cropland and 21% pastures. Canadian investors make up about one-third of all foreign holdings, or 15.3 million acres, followed by the Netherlands, Italy, the United Kingdom and Germany.

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The EU Tells Native Americans How to Manage Our Forests

By Carla Keene, Cow Creek Band of Umpqua Tribe of Indians
The Wall Street Journal
December 26, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US West

Carla Keene

ROSEBURG, Oregon – The European Union has overreached again. In its pursuit of “deforestation-free” products, it is using its global influence to exert control over foreign lands and to project its values, assumptions and expectations on the rest of the world. Under the EU’s Deforestation-free Regulation, which went into effect in 2023 but has yet to be enforced, those who sell certain goods in the EU—wood and furniture, for instance—must prove that the products don’t originate from recently deforested land and haven’t contributed to “forest degradation,” which is loosely defined. This policy evokes painful memories for my people, a tribal sovereign nation in Oregon. It’s a new spin on colonialism—a regulation based on the flawed premise that Europeans know what’s best for the rest of us. …If the EU truly wants to advance global forest stewardship, it should start by respecting our indigenous sovereignty and knowledge about forest management. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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The Bureau of Land Management increases timber sales in Oregon, triples nationwide mandated increase

By Zac Ziegler
Jefferson Public Radio
December 30, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US West

OREGON– The Bureau of Land Management’s state office in Oregon increased its timber sales in 2025, leading to one of its largest years for sales by board-feet and dollars in decades. The increase coincides with a provision of the tax and spending bill approved by Congress in July, that requires BLM to increase the timber it makes available for harvest by 20 million board-feet each year through 2034. BLM data show that the timber sales through the office totalled 290.6 million board-feet this year, an increase of 66.8 million from the previous year. …2025 was the third-highest year for BLM timber sales through the Oregon office by both board-feet and sale price, topped only by 2019 and 2021. Sales this year brought in $63.7 million.

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Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy

North Wisconsin forestry faces major shift with proposed $1.5B Hayward fuel plant

By Bill Johnson
The Chronotype
January 1, 2026
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: United States, US East

WISCONSIN — Hayward is the “first choice” for a German company considering building a $1.5 billion plant to convert wood and wood waste into sustainable aviation fuel, but the company also is talking to Minnesota, Michigan and other states, said Matthias Mueller, CEO of Synthec Fuels. …Hayward has good access to energy and to rail and highway transportation, it is not far from the Minneapolis and Chicago airports, and it is home to Synthec’s partner Johnson Timber, Mueller said. European investors have committed to providing $1.5 billion to build that plant, but Wisconsin lawmakers are working to make the state more attractive with the Forestry Revitalization Act that would provide $210 million in tax credits and loans. …The proposed plant annually would use 890,000 tons of woody biomass to produce 48 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel. 

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