From the TLA Convention: Premier David Eby quantifies the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs, considers reforms to BC’s forest sector; and Russ Taylor and Don Wright advise attendees on how to improve BC’s forest investment climate. In related news: COFI’s Kurt Niquidet discusses the tariff challenge; San Group’s Port Alberni mills are up for sale; Quebec’s Commonwealth Plywood remains open for now; and more on the value-add mills getting BC funding. Meanwhile: US housing starts surged 16% in December; and US homebuilder and remodeller confidence ticks up.
In Forestry/Climate news: the US Forest Service adopts new substance abuse rules; new US assessments of climate change’s impact on east coast and west coast forests; Washington’s new land commissioner orders pause on some old-growth logging; and Finish forests were a GHG source in 2023.
Finally, entombed whitebark pines in Wyoming become visible after 5,900 years.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog Editor
On Day 1 of the Truck Loggers Association 80th Annual Convention, Russ Taylor and Don Wright tackled the pressing question:
BC could face severe economic consequences from president-elect Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on Canadian imports. The province projects a cumulative economic loss of $69 billion over four years, with real GDP potentially declining by 0.6% annually in 2025 and 2026. The BC. Ministry of Finance, estimates significant job losses and revenue reductions during this period, with the unemployment rate possibly increasing to 6.7% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026. The tariff’s effects on the labor market could result in 124,000 job losses by 2028, with the most affected sectors being natural resources, manufacturing, transportation, and retail. Corporate profits could decrease annually by $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion. …Experts indicate that the tariffs could disrupt the US lumber supply chain. Rajan Parajuli, an NC State University professor, said that… US lumber producers might profit from higher prices, consumers would face increased costs if demand remains steady. The Peterson Institute for International Economics notes that these tariffs could extend beyond Canada, impacting the broader wood product sector.
It may take months, if not years, to rebuild after the wildfires in Southern California, raising the likelihood of a spike in demand for lumber in the months and years ahead. The rebuilding process after events such as these “typically drives a significant demand for building materials, particularly lumber, given its foundational role in construction,” said Michael Goodman, of building-materials wholesaler Sherwood Lumber. The California wildfires could slow the economy and boost inflation – and that’s not even the worst of it, economists say. …Looking at the bigger picture for the lumber market, Kuta said, “if one believes that interest rates will gradually moderate lower, we as a nation [would still be] woefully underbuilt and in need of new residential housing.” Among the companies to consider are lumber providers Canfor Corp. and West Fraser Timber Co. and timberland company Weyerhaeuser Co., well as building-material suppliers Builders FirstSource Inc. and Boise Cascade Co. 
A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed new residential construction in the U.S. surged by much more than anticipated in the month of December. The Commerce Department said housing starts soared by 15.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.499 million in December after tumbling by 3.7 percent to a revised rate of 1.294 million in November. …The spike by housing starts came amid a substantial rebound by multi-family starts, which skyrocketed by 61.5 percent to an annual rate of 449,000 in December after plummeting by 30.7 percent to an annual rate of 278,000 in November. Single-family starts also shot up by 3.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.050 million in December after surging by 7.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.016 million in November. Meanwhile, the report said building permits slid by 0.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.483 million in December after surging by 5.2 percent to a revised rate of 1.493 million in November.
The NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 68 for the fourth quarter of 2024, up five points compared to the previous quarter. Remodelers are more optimistic about the market than they were earlier in the year, corroborated by NAHB’s recent analysis of home improvement loan applications. Demand in many parts of the country was stronger than usual for the fall season, especially demand for larger projects, with leads coming in after the uncertainty about the November elections was removed. …The Current Conditions Index averaged 75, increasing three points from the previous quarter. All three components remained well above 50 in positive territory: large remodeling projects rose eight points to 75, moderate remodeling projects increased two points to 73, and small remodeling projects inched down one point to 76. …The Future Indicators Index was 61, up six points from the previous quarter. 
The massive fire that began in Pacific Palisades on January 7 has kept the city on edge ever since, with multiple other outbreaks flaring up around L.A. in the following days. While many have been contained or extinguished, the devastation left in the fire’s wake is astonishing, with homes reduced to ashes. In light of this reality, one question remains: why is wood the primary choice for construction in an area so prone to wildfires? The U.S. is rich in forests making wood a readily available material. [Wood is] more affordable, with lower prices than other materials like steel or concrete. …The tradition of building with wood in the United States dates back to the arrival of European settlers… Wood allows for faster construction, making it an attractive choice for building homes. …However, the increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires may serve as a wake-up call, prompting a shift to fireproof materials like concrete.
Rhonda Millikin, an award-winning ecologist who has questioned Whistler’s approach to wildfire mitigation, was issued a cease-and-desist letter last month from Forest Professionals British Columbia (FPBC), which said she is not certified to offer forestry advice. The FPBC said in its Dec. 14 letter that Millikin was unlawfully engaged in the reserved practice of professional forestry by providing advice and recommendations to the RMOW to limit or cease forest fuel-thinning efforts. “On principle, we don’t have an issue with people, whether a member of the public or someone from a different profession, researching or holding opinions or even talking about those opinions,” explained Casey Macaulay, the FPBC’s registrar and director of act compliance, who authored the cease-and-desist letter. “Where it’s an issue is when they start to advocate for a particular practice, and in this case, where that practice is so out of sync with the current science and the current practice of protecting communities from wildfires.”
The Coast Silviculture Committee is an ad hoc organization of forest professionals whose prime objective is to disseminate current technical forest management and silvicultural information to all forest practitioners and the public in coastal British Columbia. Its membership includes corporate, government, and self-employed professional foresters and forest technologist, forestry educators, forest land owners, researchers, and tenure managers. Every year the CSC holds two meetings; a short, one or two day, information meeting in winter, and a slightly longer field based technical workshop in early to mid- June; summer meetings are held in a different part of the coast each year. All of the surplus funds from workshops go towards supporting development of silvicultural expertise in students at the post-secondary level through providing of awards. The Winter 2025 workshop is scheduled for February 19 at Vancouver Island University. 
WASHINGTON – Today, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo announced the Department’s Economic Development Administration (EDA) is investing $6.2 million in the state of Kansas to support forestry and construction industry workforce development. The EDA forestry investments announced today are: Kansas State University in Manhattan will receive a $3.2 million grant to bolster natural resource and wildfire risk management workforce development through construction of a modernized training facility. This EDA investment will be matched with $815,794 in local funds. …“The Biden-Harris Administration’s Investing in America agenda is growing jobs, building a sustainable workforce, and creating opportunities for workers across the country,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “These EDA investments in Manhattan and Beloit will provide expanded forestry and construction workforce training programs so local workers get the skills they need for in-demand jobs, and the local economy grows.”