To get a sense of the potential impact of Donald Trump’s plans for sweeping tariffs, look no further than the Canada-U.S. softwood dispute. …Since 2017 in the latest phase of the long-running trade war over lumber, companies based in Canada have paid more than $10-billion in U.S. duties. Production from U.S. sawmills, including those owned by Canadian-based companies, is exempt from the lumber duties. Canadian-based producers have descended on the U.S. South over the past dozen years and set up shop in the lumber region, and thereby found a way around the punitive duties for the U.S. portion of output.

…Vancouver-based forestry analyst Russ Taylor said that even without Mr. Trump’s return to the White House, the industry consensus is that U.S. lumber duties would surge to 30% next year. That is based on a historical pattern of higher duty rates whenever there are lower prices in lumber markets. “There’s lots of incentive for the Canadian government to negotiate now because lumber prices are low and the duties are going higher. But the Americans want high duties against Canadians and want them to be squeezed,” Mr. Taylor said. …Mr. Taylor say it is also possible that 10% tariffs could be added on top of lumber duties. [to access the full story, a Globe and Mail subscription is required]