RISI released US Tissue statistics for January. Highlights include:

US Parent Roll production increased +1.9% y/y and +8.0% vs. 2020 levels – According to RISI, US parent roll production increased by 16k tons y/y to 838k tons while tissue mill capacity was up 11k tons y/y to 876k tons, increasing the US industry operating rate to 95.7% vs. 95.0% last year. Sequentially, the US industry operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points m/m as production modestly increased by 3k tons m/m while tissue mill capacity increased by 4k tons m/m.

At-Home converted product shipments increased +2.7% y/y and +15.0% vs. 2020 levels – According to RISI, at-home shipments increased by 15k tons y/y, largely driven by an increase in toweling volumes. In January, bathroom tissue shipments were up 2.5% y/y, facial tissue shipments were down 4.9% y/y, towel shipments were up 4.6% y/y, and napkin shipments were up 2.7% y/y.

Away-from-Home (“AfH”) converted product shipments were up +5.0% y/y but down -3.1% vs. 2020 levels – AfH shipments posted a seventh consecutive month of y/y gains. By category, towel was up 9.1% y/y, napkins were up 10.8% y/y, bathroom tissue was down 1.1% y/y, and facial tissue was down 16.7% y/y. Relative to December, AfH shipments increased by 1.6% (or by ~4k tons), as bathroom tissue was up 6.9% m/m and towel was up 1.9% m/m, while napkins were down 2.4% m/m, facial tissue was down 16.7% m/m, and Other was down 40.0% m/m.

Key takeaways from Kimberly-Clark’s CAGNY presentation – Last week, Kimberly-Clark presented at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference (“CAGNY”). Management noted that the company is investing >70% of its marketing budget in digital globally, which drives a higher ROI, increased personalization, and more frequent purchases. Premiumization is driving growth across all markets, with a material shift towards premium/super-premium, which is now ~83% of the diapers mix and growing at a 12% CAGR. Category dollars per baby have increased by ~10% in the US/Australia and by ~35% in China from 2019 to 2021. Management noted that its Cottonelle tissue brand is starting to see some sequential share gains and the company sees further growth opportunities in premiumization.

Apparent consumption of converted tissue products increased by 3.3% y/y – According to RISI, apparent consumption increased by 3.3% y/y to 865k tons, which is slightly lower than the 3.4% y/y increase in converted product shipments. This left apparent consumption ~28k tons higher y/y.

Total US tissue exports declined 9.3% y/y and decreased 4.6% m/m in December – According to RISI, total tissue exports decreased by 2.2k tons m/m to 45.9k tons, as exports to Canada and Mexico decreased m/m while exports to Other increased m/m. By product, compared to November, decreased parent roll, bathroom tissue, napkin, and towel, exports were partially offset by increased facial exports.

Total US tissue imports fell by 15.4% y/y and decreased by 4.8% m/m in December – By country, tissue imports from Canada increased by 14.3% y/y and imports from China increased by 1.9% y/y, while imports from other countries such as Indonesia (-65.5% y/y), Mexico (-30.7% y/y), and Other (-57.4% y/y) declined substantially. By product, increased napkin (+11.7% y/y) were more than offset by lower parent roll (-34.4% y/y), bathroom tissue (-28.9% y/y), towel (-7.9% y/y), and facial (-8.4% y/y) imports.

Tissue prices were lower m/m – According to RISI, virgin parent roll prices fell by $21 m/m to $1,384/ton for low quality rolls and by $19 m/m to $1,573/ton for high-quality rolls.