Where are Lumber Prices Heading into the 2026 Construction Season?

By Andrew Hecht
Barchart
February 27, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber is a critical ingredient in new home construction, so interest rates influence the path of least resistance for wood prices. …Changes at the Fed favor lumber futures… the new Chairman, with the administration’s support, will likely favor reducing the rate from the current 3.625% over the coming months. Two factors favor lower rates. Inflation is currently below 3%, and the most recent Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could push inflation indicators even lower. …If the long-term rate follows short-term rates in 2026, demand for new 30-year mortgages and new homebuilding could increase, driving higher lumber demand and higher wood prices. …The daily continuous physical lumber futures contract chart highlights the bearish trend of lower highs. …I am bullish on lumber prices and expect them to break above the first resistance at $618.50, driven by seasonality and the prospects of falling U.S. interest rates.

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