The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 2.25 per cent for the fourth consecutive time on Wednesday, but warned that it would be closely watching the impact of rising oil prices on inflation in the coming months amid ongoing uncertainty caused by the war in Iran. …Inflation has been close to two per cent for over a year but rose to 2.4 per cent in March after slowing to 1.8 per cent in February. The central bank base case forecast is that inflation will peak in April at about three per cent before returning to the two per cent target in early 2027, but that is assuming global oil prices decline. U.S. tariff measures along with the uncertainty surrounding the Canada-United-States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) have also added to the uncertainty ahead of the July 1 CUSMA review deadline, especially since the Canadian government has not yet launched formal discussions with U.S. officials.