Robert McKellar
Friday’s Tree Frog interview with political risk expert Robert McKellar drew exceptional interest—and for good reason. Given reader response and the ongoing fallout from Trump’s trade policies, we’re featuring it again for those who missed it. McKellar, who divides his time between Turkey and Canada, brings an international perspective to his analysis of Trump’s second-term trade environment and its implications for Canada’s forest sector. His message is clear: US protectionism is not a passing phase. The current tariff and duty structure reflects a broader nationalist realignment that will persist well beyond the Trump presidency. He notes it is unlikely that the upcoming USMCA review will restore pre-Trump-2 market access, and that while Washington is betting tariffs will attract new foreign investment, the result has instead been greater political risk.
McKellar also examines the recent US–China flare-up, concluding it is unlikely to reignite a full-scale trade war. Within the US, he observes that political momentum currently favours the US Lumber Coalition over homebuilders, but that balance could shift if housing affordability again becomes a political flashpoint. Should the housing crisis deepen, Trump has shown he’s willing to adjust course when broader political pressures outweigh protectionist instincts. For Canadian producers, diversification and value-added strategies remain essential—but slow to materialize. That reality underpins McKellar’s central question: “If that’s true—then what?” His answer calls for a fundamental shift in mindset—challenging the sector to rethink its future and chart a course less dependent on the US market. He concludes that companies should view political-risk awareness as a practical framework—linking foresight, market intelligence, and decision-making into a continuous process of adaptation. The tools already exist within most organizations, he says; the opportunity lies in using them more deliberately as part of everyday business planning.
It’s been a tough year for the lumber trade. With US housing starts unusually low, demand and prices for lumber are down — even as trade costs, especially for Canadian producers, keep rising. …The president’s goal is straightforward: to bolster the domestic lumber industry — a move U.S. producers welcome. “This is our market. America first, baby,” says Andrew Miller, chair of the US Lumber Coalition. “I don’t think Canadians get that through their thick head. This is America, not Canada. There’s nothing that obligates us to take dumped subsidized product at the expense of US producers.” …Free market advocates see it differently: They say tariffs hurt consumers and that the added costs will eventually be passed through in the form of higher prices. They also doubt the U.S. lumber sector can replace Canadian boards in a timely fashion. …Even Miller said using national security as a reason was merely a “sideshow.”
BURNABY, BC — Interfor announced today revised operating plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Due to persistently weak market conditions and ongoing economic uncertainty, Interfor will further temporarily reduce lumber production across its operations in British Columbia, Ontario, the US Pacific Northwest and the US South. These curtailments are expected to reduce lumber production in the fourth quarter of 2025 by approximately 250 million board feet, or 26%, as compared to the second quarter of 2025, which reflected a more normal operating stance. The curtailment volumes are approximately evenly split between Interfor’s Canadian and U.S. operations. …These curtailments are an amendment to Interfor’s previously announced curtailments on September 4, 2025. “Lumber prices in all regions of North America have continued to weaken, from already unsustainably low levels,” said Ian Fillinger, Interfor’s CEO. …While necessary, we fully recognize the impact these actions will have on our employees, contractors, suppliers and communities.”
The US imports about 40% of the softwood lumber the nation uses each year, more than 80% of that from Canada. President Trump says that the US has the capacity to meet 95% of softwood lumber demand and directed federal officials to update policies and regulatory guidelines to expand domestic timber harvesting and curb the arrival of foreign lumber. …As researchers studying the forestry sector and international trade, we recognize that the US has ample forest resources. But replacing imports with domestic lumber isn’t as simple as it sounds. There are differences in tree species and quality, and U.S. lumber often comes at a higher cost, even with tariffs on imports. Challenges like limited labor and manufacturing capacity require long-term investments, which temporary tariffs and uncertain trade policies often fail to encourage. In addition, the amount of lumber imported tends to mirror the boom-and-bust cycles of housing construction, a dynamic that tariffs alone are unlikely to change.
President Trump ushered in new tariffs on imported furniture, kitchen cabinets and lumber on Tuesday, adding a fresh round of levies as he once again threatened to expand his trade war with China. Tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on foreign wood products and furniture snapped into effect just after midnight. The tariffs are meant to encourage more domestic logging and furniture manufacturing. But critics say that the levies will raise prices for American consumers and could slow industries including home building that rely on materials from abroad. …Critics have called it a stretch to issue the furniture and lumber tariffs under the national-security-related law. …Some American manufacturers lobbied for the tariffs. …Some economists expect the higher price of lumber, along with home furnishings, will slow the pace of home building. That could set back the Trump administration’s goals of improving a weak housing market. [to assess the full story a NY Times subscription is required]
The US is now collecting tariffs on imported timber, lumber, kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and upholstered furniture, duties that threaten to raise the cost of renovations and deter new home purchases. …Trump described his wood and furniture tariffs as helping to “strengthen supply chains… and increase domestic capacity utilization for wood products.” Yet 
The Forest Products Association of Canada (FPAC) is extremely frustrated and deeply concerned by the U.S. government’s decision to impose Section 232 tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber and derivative products. These unjustified measures, which take effect today, threaten the livelihoods of more than 200,000 Canadians and the stability of hundreds of towns and cities that rely on a strong forest sector. “For eight years, forest workers and communities across Canada have borne the brunt of increasing duties—now exceeding 45 percent with the addition of these new tariffs,” said Derek Nighbor, President and CEO of FPAC. “These are punitive, protectionist measures with no basis in fact. They ignore decades of evidence that Canadian lumber strengthens, rather than threatens, U.S. national security and economic resilience.” Targeting responsibly managed, sustainably sourced Canadian wood products under the pretense of national security is both unjustified and deeply damaging. These actions undermine one of the most integrated, mutually beneficial trade relationships in the world, increasing costs for American families and homebuilders while jeopardising Canadian mills and workers.
British Columbia’s forest sector is at a crossroads — facing tough challenges, but also leading the way in solutions that matter most to our province: housing, wildfire resilience, reconciliation, and sustainable economic growth. At the 2026 COFI Convention, leaders from across industry, government, and Indigenous and community partners will come together to rebuild competitiveness and chart the future of a strong, sustainable forest sector. Join us in Vancouver for the largest forest sector gathering in Western Canada. April 8 – 10, 2026 at the JW Marriot Parq Vancouver
Linda Bell says there has been turmoil and chaos along parts of the US and New Brunswick border as trucks carrying lumber navigate the new tariffs that came into effect on Tuesday. But Bell says there’s been confusion as to what’s included under the new tariffs. In her almost three decades working as the general manager of the Carleton Victoria Wood Producers Association in Florenceville, she says it’s the first time there appears to be a duty on roundwood. “Trucks that were headed over there have been turned back and had to be unloaded. Some have been allowed to cross. We really don’t know what is going on,” she said. She said a few large mills in Maine who’ve been buying New Brunswick wood for five decades have halted all deliveries until the confusion can be cleared up. …Minister Mélanie Joly said there are different interpretations happening at various border locations.
Lumber futures have risen about 19% from a low hit in early September, driven by the production cuts, hopes that declining interest rates will revive the housing market and Trump’s import tax. The 10% levy is on top of steep duties on Canadian lumber, which are adjusted annually in a heavily litigated process that is the result of a decades-long trade dispute. Those antidumping and countervailing duties rose in August to about 35% for most Canadian producers, up from roughly 15%. Canada’s sawmills are by far the largest source of softwood lumber from beyond U.S. borders, fulfilling about 24% of domestic consumption last year. Other significant importers of softwood lumber, the type used to frame houses, include Brazil and European countries such as Germany and Sweden. Homebuilders argue that import taxes will raise construction costs. U.S. lumber producers and timberland owners, however, urged Trump to enact a tariff.
Lumber futures rose past $610 per thousand board feet in mid-October, approaching monthly highs as markets priced in tighter near-term supply and looming trade restrictions. Under newly announced US Section 232 tariffs that take effect on October 14th, imported softwood lumber will face a 10% duty and finished wood goods such as cabinets and furniture will face higher levies, prompting importers to front-load purchases and draw down inventories. Domestic output is also constrained as sawmills run cautiously after years of underinvestment, logging curbs in sensitive regions and slow capacity restarts have limited production. The cost and delay of switching suppliers is material given that Canadian lumber, which supplies much of US demand, already carries elevated antidumping and countervailing duties, intensifying the supply squeeze.
Canada is facing a housing crisis of historic proportions. With affordability slipping out of reach for millions and supply lagging far behind demand, we need bold, scalable and sustainable solutions. The federal government’s Build Canada Homes initiative is a promising start and an opportunity to scale up the use of Canadian wood in building construction. 
The October newsletter includes these headlines and more:
At the recent 2025 Vancouver Regional Construction Association (VRCA) 
The BC Forest History Association is pleased to welcome Dr. Barry Cooke, Research Scientist with the Canadian Forest Service, as our second speaker of 2025. Dr. Cooke is one of Canada’s leading experts on modeling insect outbreak processes and patterns, with more than 30 years of experience studying spruce budworm population dynamics and forest insect ecology. He has authored over 90 scientific publications, advancing our understanding of budworms, beetles, and other major forest pests through spatial simulation modeling. Join us for this free online presentation, “A History of Debate on Budworms: A BC Perspective.” Tuesday, October 21st 2025 – 7:00 to 8:00 PST 
Canada’s vast forests are the envy of much of the world, but they’ve seen brighter days. Our changing climate has beckoned wilder wildfires, disease and drought. And after decades of cutting big and fast to maximize profits, the country’s logging industry is in freefall. But there’s opportunity in crisis — or that’s the bet some First Nations in British Columbia are making. …“Now we’re dealing with a lot of scrub in that corner that we didn’t get to before,” Garry Merkel, a professional forester and a member of the Tahltan Nation. …In Manitoba, the forestry industry watched this summer as profits went up in smoke. Devastating fires burned more forest in logging areas than any year in recorded wildfire history, according to an analysis by Manitoba reporter Julia-Simone Rutgers. And forestry companies are “scared to death,” said.
BC’s forest communities are on life support. Families are losing jobs, mills are shuttering, and entire towns are being hollowed out. And now, with another punishing softwood lumber tariff slapped on by the U.S., the bleeding has gone from slow to catastrophic. Premier David Eby calls it an “existential crisis” and wants the prime minister to declare a national emergency. Here’s a better idea: How about the premier stops being the emergency? For eight years, the B.C. NDP has dismantled the foundation of our forest industry. They have made it harder to cut, harder to haul, harder to process, and harder to survive. Now Eby is running to Ottawa and blaming the Americans while ignoring the damage his government has already done. Let’s be clear. The forest industry is not collapsing because of one more tariff. It is collapsing because this government has gutted it from the inside. 
Local residents are invited to share their input on the development of the West Central Vancouver Island (WCVI) Forest Landscape Plan (FLP), which will guide long-term forest management in the area. …People can share their thoughts through a short survey, open from Wednesday, Oct. 15 until Dec. 15, 2025, or attend an open house in a nearby community. Four in-person open-house engagement sessions are planned so people can learn more about forest landscape planning and comment on the development of the plan in Zeballos, Gold River, Tahsis and Campbell River. FLPs are co-developed with First Nations, with input from communities, subject-matter experts and forest licensees. The WCVI FLP is being developed with the Mowachaht/Muchatlaht First Nation, Ka:yu:’k’t’h’/Che:k’tles7et’h’ First Nations and Ehattesaht Chinehkint First Nation.
Environmental advocates and industry officials are divided over whether new logging plans in the Upper Highwood River watershed will provide sufficient protection for the threatened Bull Trout population. West Fraser Cochrane recently obtained Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) authorization under the Fisheries Act and sections 73 and 74 of the Species at Risk Act (SARA) to install 14 temporary crossings for timber harvesting. The company says it is balancing responsible resource use with habitat conservation. “We understand how important it is to protect bull trout and Westslope cutthroat trout habitat in the Highwood– and share that priority,” said West Fraser Cochrane. “…we will monitor conditions before and after harvest to help inform responsible stewardship.” …Both environmental advocates and West Fraser agree on one point: safeguarding the Bull Trout and its habitat is a critical challenge. The question is whether the mitigation steps currently underway will prove sufficient to ensure the species’ long-term survival.
The Saskatchewan NDP’s critic for forestry is calling on the province to provide support to help forests in the north recover from this summer’s destructive wildfire season. Cumberland MLA Jordan McPhail said more than 2.9 million hectares of forest was destroyed by fire over the summer, and this is having an impact on the forestry sector. “They’re literally seeing future profits go up in smoke,” he said. The northern Saskatchewan MLA said the provincial government can play a positive role by investing in reforestation work. McPhail said provincial regulations dictate that forestry companies replant two trees for every single tree they take. These dictates do not apply in instances where trees are destroyed by fires. …The Government of Saskatchewan said the province is committed to doubling growth in the forestry sector and is prepared to support the industry to do this.
BANFF – A large swath of land will be logged at the base of Sulphur Mountain this winter to help further protect the Banff townsite from a future runaway wildfire similar to one that destroyed part of Jasper last year. As part of Parks Canada’s ongoing work to reduce the threat of wildfire to the townsite, the plan calls for 125 hectares to be logged and thinned in the Spray and Middle Springs area over the next two winters, including about 79 ha this winter. The entire project – which aims to slow the spread of an approaching wildfire and aid in suppression efforts to protect the Banff townsite – is slated to begin by the end of November and wrap up by spring 2027. …The Town of Banff has directed almost $1.5 million to be spent in 2025 wildfire mitigation work in 2025 within the four-km2 townsite.
Maple Ridge’s greenery is being recognized and awarded on a national scale. Malcolm Knapp Research Forest is one of two forests operated by the University of B.C. (UBC) that was recently acknowledged with a Canadian Institute of Forestry – Canadian Forest Management Group Achievement Award. …The award recognizes outstanding achievements by teams of managers in the field of natural resource management in Canada, and the local forest was praised for its “pivotal role” in advancing forest education, research, and management across B.C. and beyond, explained Helene Marcoux, local research forest director who was on hand for the recent awards presentation. …Through the coordination of more than 1,400 research projects and the delivery of experiential learning programs to thousands of students and professionals, the research forests have significantly shaped forest policy, sustainable management practices, and public understanding of forestry, said presenters of the national awards.
At the Kelsey Bay log sort near the town of Sayward, B.C., pulverized cedar bark [is] evidence of the millions of trees that departed from here, never to return. “We’ve seen our territories decimated,” Wei Wai Kum Chief Christopher Roberts explains. Behind him, five freshly cut, old-growth cedars line the warming pavement. These trees, Roberts says, help explain why the nation is here today. …nations are claiming sizable stakes in an industry that has long excluded them. Wei Wai Kum is one of four First Nations to purchase a $36-million stake in La-kwa sa mukw Forestry Partnership, a joint operation with logging company Western Forest Products Ltd. Their partnership came after companies agreed to leave canoe-carving trees in their communities. A sign, for Roberts, that the industry was willing to change. …Now … First Nations’ tenure opportunities have exploded as B.C.’s biggest forest companies sell off major parts of their long-held licences. 
KAMLOOPS, BC — The impacts of climate change on wildland fires, cultural burning practices and inter-government cooperation are areas of research and interest among experts gathered by the newly-formed Wildfire Resilience Consortium of Canada. The national consortium was announced in July and received $11.7 million in funding over four years from Natural Resources Canada through the Wildfire Resilient Futures Initiative. Delegates from across Canada met for the first time on Thompson Rivers University’s campus last week for a three-day conference, which aimed to facilitate discussion, networking, and to pool knowledge. Rapid-fire presentations saw recipients of NRCan’s Building and Mobilize Foundational Wildland Fire Knowledge program speak about their projects and research studies. …Many of the presenters spoke of the increasing severity of wildfires, highlighting recent record-breaking fire seasons. University of Northern B.C. professor Che Elkin said climate change is having an impact on forest ecosystems, affecting individual tree growth and mortality.
Wildfire is part of the natural lifecycle of a forest; but as Manitoba continues to battle the embers of its most devastating fire season in more than 30 years, its leaders are starting to consider a more active role in managing this critical resource to stave off the flames. In early October, as more than 70 wildland fires still smouldered across the province, Premier Wab Kinew and a handful of cabinet ministers released Manitoba’s first all-encompassing plan to slash carbon emissions in the next 25 years. Among the promised initiatives was a 
Atlantic Canada’s wildfires are growing and a scientist at the University of New Brunswick (UNB) says the combination of climate change and regional forest management are making things worse. Anthony Taylor is a forestry expert at the UNB. He studies the impact of climate change and forest composition. “We should expect more weather like this into the future,” Taylor said. “That’s largely a consequence of inaction on climate change over the past 20 or 30 years.” Taylor said the weather and drought conditions in the Maritimes can be blamed on the climate change already baked into the system and people should expect more warming in coming decades. He said weather impacts wildfires more than any other variable but the next biggest factor is ignition. “More than 90 per cent of our fires that do occur, including this year, are from human ignition,” Taylor said. “Obviously we want to try to reduce and stop climate change but the next best thing after that is to be fire smart around the woods.”
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The man charged after an investigation into the largest wildfire in Nova Scotia history has been fined $25,000. Dalton Stewart, 23, chose not to speak when he was handed the sentence Thursday in Barrington provincial court. The sentence — a joint recommendation from the Crown and defence — also includes an order to complete educational training on wildfire prevention. 
ONTARIO — The Northwestern Ontario Innovation Centre has partnered with the Thunder Bay Community Economic Development Commission (CEDC), the Centre for Research and Innovation in the Bio-Economy (CRIBE), Lakehead University and Confederation College to launch the Boreal Springboard, an innovative initiative aimed at strengthening and diversifying the forestry sector in Northwestern Ontario. Graham Bracken, at the Northwestern Ontario Innovation Centre, said the launch comes at a critical time for forestry in the region. …“The trade pressures were really the impetus to focus people’s minds,” Bracken said. “The sector is really integrated, and any threat to protection on the sawmill side weakens the rest of the sector. There’s a real drive to look to trade diversification and try and develop new value-added products that we can access other markets with.” Bracken says these investors will bring skills, technologies, and solutions that can be adapted to strengthen and grow the sector.
Since Aug. 11, the Bamfield Main Road has been closed. …When the Mount Underwood wildfire broke out, that road had to be closed because of a blaze raging nearby. …Bamfield-area residents have to travel more than four hours to get to Port Alberni. …Another point of frustration for the people on the other side of the closure is the existence of a logging road owned by Mosaic Forest Management, a section of that road goes around the Bamfield Main Road closure. Harrison said she and a small group of other people drove the road to check it out. …”The Youbou Road is 100 times worse than that little 20-minute bypass road,” claimed resident Sherry Harrison. …The ministry said the road owned by Mosaic is private and public use is up to the discretion of the company, but added those logging roads were not built and are not maintained for public use.