
Kelly McCloskey
We reached out to Robert McKellar at Harmattan Risk in August 2024 for comment on the increasing pace of change in the forest sector, shaped by political forces and government intervention. Robert’s op-ed offered a thoughtful analysis of how inherent political risks—especially those linked to Canada–US trade friction—could rapidly unsettle an industry long reliant on stability. At the time, Trump’s potential political comeback was still largely speculative. Since that op-ed, the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Trump’s re-emergence is no longer a remote possibility but a concrete reality that has intensified uncertainty across the sector. With these developments in mind, we reconnected with Robert to update his analysis and explore how the risks he foresaw have become even more pronounced. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]
WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump said again Wednesday he plans to hit Canada and Mexico with devastating duties — but a White House official confirmed on background that the tariff plans could change through negotiations. …He signed an executive order to implement “reciprocal tariffs” by raising U.S. duties to match the tax rates that other countries charge on imports starting April 2. He ordered 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States on March 12. Trump also floated the idea of imposing tariffs on automobiles and forest products in April. …Trump himself seems to be having a hard time keeping track of his massive tariff agenda. …Many experts say Trump’s actions are intended to shake up Canada and Mexico ahead of a review of the continental trade pact. The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement was negotiated during the first Trump administration to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Yesterday, we featured an op-ed by political risk management expert Robert McKellar on how Donald Trump’s re-election is changing the political risk landscape for the Canadian forest sector. While U.S. trade disputes are not new, the unpredictability of Trump’s approach to trade policy creates new challenges that Canadian exporters must assess and manage. McKellar presents a structured way to evaluate these risks using the devil’s advocacy approach, a method that considers both worst- and best-case scenarios to develop a balanced assessment. Trump has proposed three different types of tariffs—bi-national, product-specific, and reciprocal—which, if applied together, could significantly impact the sector. By examining multiple possibilities, McKellar provides companies with a way to better prepare for potential disruptions rather than reacting in crisis mode. And as today’s
The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated the 

At the 2025 COFI Convention, we’re diving deep into B.C.’s forest sector competitiveness and sustainability—and how we compare to leading global regions. Join Kurt Niquidet, COFI’s VP & Chief Economist, and Glen O’Kelly, CEO of O’Kelly Acumen, as they reveal findings from a new study benchmarking B.C. against 10 international jurisdictions—including Sweden, Finland, Austria, the U.S., and Brazil. Key insights include: Strengths & Weaknesses – What industry leaders are saying about B.C.’s competitive position; Global Comparisons – How B.C. stacks up on economic and sustainability performance; and Opportunities for Growth – Strategies to strengthen B.C.’s competitive edge. This is a must-attend conversation for anyone invested in the future of B.C.’s forest industry. Don’t miss it—Register before the end of Early Bird Pricing on March 3!
Production at High Prairie Forest Products would be impacted by potential tariffs on forest products going to the United States. General manager Brandon Marsh addressed Big Lakes County council about the negative impacts at its regular meeting Feb. 12. …“Here in High Prairie, we rely on our southern neighbours for roughly 50 per cent of our trade,” said Marsh, “This 25 per cent tariff would greatly reduce our ability to move the volume of product we produce here in our community. With the existing solid wood lumber agreements with the U.S., we already have varying levies of penalty applied to our product, which gets compounded with an additional dumping duty. …Part of West Fraser Forest Products Co. Ltd., the High Prairie operation has a staff of about 140 full-time employees while also supporting a large contractor base for other services. Those people rely an a strong market for their jobs to support families and communities, he said.
VICTORIA — B.C.’s Forests Minister Ravi Parmar says the expectation of more duties and additional tariffs piled onto Canadian softwood lumber would “absolutely be devastating” for the country’s industry. Parmar says the government expects the U.S. Commerce Department will issue anti-dumping duties by Friday of as much as 14 per cent, on top of the current 14.4 per cent duty. It comes after U.S. President Donald Trump told media on Air Force 1 that his administration was eyeing a 25 per cent tariff on lumber some time around April. Parmar says he knows many forestry workers are going to be worried about their jobs and he’ll continue to fight for them. He says the extra tariffs are “very likely” and Canada should take Trump at his word. …He said provincial and federal governments need to continue to make the case that while such tariffs hurt Canadians, they will also hurt Americans.
Hinton Town Council will add its voice in support of the Alberta Forest Products Association (AFPA) advocacy efforts. Nicole Galambos of the AFPA – of which both West Fraser and Mondi are members – appeared as a delegation before council with a presentation called Trade Barriers and Albert’s Forest Industry. “Today [there are] some pressing trade challenges facing our sector, particularly some of the softwood lumber duties and tariffs, in addition to emerging US trade barriers and global competition,” Galambos told council, asking for their help. …AFPA suggested there are six steps the Government of Alberta can take to support the forest industry, the first of which is advocate for Alberta forest products in the US. The second is keep Alberta’s regulatory costs low, with Galambos pointing out that high costs have led to mill closures in BC. The third is … a Build With Alberta Wood Act similar to those in BC and Quebec.
SQUAMISH, BC — Peter Dickson has owned FraserWood Industries, a Squamish-based timber manufacturer, since 1998. He has grown his business, earning contracts near and far, including the Sea to Sky Gondola service building and log cabins at Walt Disney World. One third of his business is exported to the US. …“The biggest problem is our American customers will be reluctant to sign moving forward with the uncertainty.” …David Girard sits on the government relations committee for the Sea to Sky Canadian Home Builders Association, and he said the tariffs would have an outsized impact on consumers and demand for Canadian products, and cause reduced employment. According to a recent survey by KPMG, 48% of Canadian companies contacted said they would invest or produce in the U.S. to retain American customers and reduce costs. But for FraserWood, that’s not an option.
NEW YORK — Mercer International reported fourth quarter 2024 net income of $16.7 million compared to a net loss of $87.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and a net loss of $17.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. Q4 revenues were $488 million, down from $502 million in Q3, 2024 but up from $470 million in Q4, 2023. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, CEO, stated: “In the fourth quarter of 2024, softwood pulp prices remained strong, decreasing slightly from recent record prices.” …Hardwood pulp prices in China and North America decreased in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the market absorbed capacity increases from earlier in the year. …Lumber sales realizations increased, driven by modestly higher prices in the U.S. market, while in Europe, prices remained stable.
If Canada is hit with 25% tariffs… the trade impacts for the forest products sector will be wide ranging. …Lumber is the most talked about commodity with respect to tariffs, largely due to the size of the market but also the fact that tariffs would be in addition to duties which are already being paid and are set to rise come August. The US can’t supply its own lumber demand and will have to continue to import Canadian lumber. Prices will rise. …The US is even more reliant on OSB from Canada. …In softwood, ~70% of demand is met by imports and in hardwood the proportion is even higher, at 89%. Canada is the largest softwood pulp supplier to the US, representing 74% of imports; a 25% tariff on Canadian goods would inevitably result in higher costs for US customers that produce paper, packaging and tissue. There are no easy near-term substitution options.
MONTREAL — Stella-Jones announced financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024. Sales for the fourth quarter of 2024 amounted to $730 million, up 6% from sales of $688 million for the same period in 2023. …Net income for the period amounted to $52 million compared with $56 million in the corresponding period of 2023. …Sales for the year ended December 31, 2024 reached $3,469 million, up 5%, versus sales of $3,319 million in 2023. Net income in 2024 was $319 million, compared to net income of $326 million in 2023. Despite the lower net income, earnings per share in 2024 was higher at $5.66 versus $5.62 in 2023 due to the continued repurchase of shares. …Eric Vachon, CEO of Stella-Jones, “We achieved solid results in our infrastructure product categories, even in the face of softer market demand. We acquired new customers, maintained our expanded EBITDA margin of over 18%, and delivered strong operating cashflows.”
The Government of British Columbia recently approved and enacted changes to the BC Building Code to enable just a single staircase for new small multi-unit residential buildings. However, in response to Vancouver City Council’s approved directive requesting City staff to consider similar changes to the separate Vancouver Building Code, City staff are strongly opposing such a flexible allowance, primarily due to safety concerns. This negative recommendation to City Council takes into account critical feedback previously provided by fire rescue departments in BC during the provincial government’s consultation on its proposed changes. The provincial government’s new regulations enable residential buildings up to six storeys — designed for no more than 24 residents per floor — to have just one egress staircase. Previously, such buildings with three or more storeys required at least two egress staircases.

OTTAWA — The federal government has been ordered to reassess its 2022 approval of a popular weed-killer after a Federal Court judge ruled this week the original approval was unreasonable. Justice Russell Zinn gave Health Canada six months to reassess the health risks of glyphosate after the agency failed to show it considered new scientific evidence identifying new or elevated risks associated with the herbicide when it renewed the registration for a product containing it. …Monsanto, has faced multiple lawsuits in the US with multi-million-dollar awards to the plaintiffs, while others have been overturned. …The US Environmental Protection Agency reported in 2020 there were no risks to human health from current uses of the herbicide, but its assessment was overturned. …While the Federal Court’s ruling didn’t speak to the health risks of glyphosate, Zinn said Health Canada failed to show any evidence that it evaluated the new studies.
The province’s review of B.C. Timber Sales (BCTS) is based on a false contention the industry is running out of wood because of allowable annual cut reductions, says the Valhalla Wilderness Society (VWS). VWS said the Ministry’s review of BCTS to ensure the province’s forestry sector “is continually evolving to overcome challenges and create a guideline for a stronger, more resilient future” is barking up the wrong tree. VWS’ Anne Sherrod said the province’s intention to protect more old-growth and reform forestry in a more environmentally beneficial manner lasted only until the forest industry applied enough pressure. …Logging companies were already moving their mills and jobs out of B.C. long before U.S. President Donald Trump was elected, said Sherrod, and claims the province continues to reduce the allowable annual cut, or isn’t signing permits fast enough and environmentalists are depriving them of wood, are just excuses.
VICTORIA – Workers and communities throughout B.C. are benefiting from Forest Enhancement Society of BC (FESBC) supported projects that reduce wildfire risk and increase fibre supply, keeping local mills and energy plants running in the face of U.S. tariff threats and unjustified softwood lumber duties. With $28 million from the Province, FESBC is supporting 43 new and expanded fibre-recovery projects and 31 new and expanded wildfire-mitigation projects. “In tough times, I want workers in our forest sector to know I’ve got their back,” said Ravi Parmar, Minister of Forests. “Whether it’s better utilizing existing sources of fibre or helping protect communities from wildfire, the projects are supporting workers and companies as they develop new and innovative forest practices.” Projects are taking place in all eight of the Province’s natural resource regions, helping create jobs, reducing wildfire risk and supporting B.C.’s pulp and biomass sector. They will be complete by the end of March 2025, in advance of wildfire season.
The Tłı̨chǫ Government in the Northwest Territories signed 


Recently there has been discussion about upcoming forest harvesting plans on Tree Farm Licence 47 on Quadra Island. This area is within the unceded and core territory of the We Wai Kai Nation, who approves all forest management activities on the TFL. The Nation and Mosaic Forest Management have worked closely to develop a constructive relationship based on the recognition that as title holder, We Wai Kai has the right to ensure that resources on Quadra Island are being managed consistent with their conservation values and their right to benefit economically from resource extraction on their title lands. The Nation’s logging company, Way Key, is conducting all harvesting on the TFL on Quadra. Both We Wai Kai and Mosaic recognize there is interest in future harvesting activities. We also know that Islanders want a map that identifies where the old growth is (as part of a spatially explicit strategy) before harvesting occurs. 
The Kaslo and District Community Forest Society (KDCFS) revisited previous board discussions about future logging plans needed to mitigate fires. During a Feb. 20 meeting, KDCFS members highlighted the demand for cedar and fir while highlighting that several blocks of hemlock trees have been damaged by past fires, rendering some unusable. The Briggs Creek fire that occurred in 2022 led to the destruction of many hemlock trees that will need to be harvested in the next two years before deteriorating. Society forester and treasurer Jeff Mattes explained that the society’s logging plans for the year 2025 will include utilizing a patch-cut system to reserve some of the trees. A patch-cut system refers to the removal of an entire stand of trees less than one hectare.
Devices used to detect and prevent wildfires in remote forests are expensive, but the one that Northeastern University student Anson He is making will be cheaper to launch on drones over dense woodlands. He is pursuing his master’s degree in computer science at Northeastern’s Vancouver campus. In January, he started a co-op at Bayes Studio — a Vancouver company that uses robotics and machine learning to make forest fire detection tools. He is helping to produce a device that uses less expensive components than others on the market. His role is core to the small company’s success: He is in charge of prototyping the hardware and coding the software for what Bayes calls its Edge device. Other team members work on integrating artificial intelligence into the device’s functionality and connecting the device to servers.
YELLOWKNIFE, NT
Bat species considered to be at risk seem to be in “relative abundance” on the east coast of Vancouver Island. Scott Wilson, wildlife research biologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, gave a first look into data he’s been gathering during a presentation Feb. 20 hosted by Nanaimo and Area Land Trust and Nature Nanaimo. “I’ve worked on migratory birds most of my life and the bats a bit more recently, and we know so much less about bats in comparison to migratory birds,” said Wilson. “I’d say we’re where we were 30 years ago with birds in terms of understanding their habitat needs and their ecology.” …The data shows that in the Nanaimo area, wetlands were significantly preferred by the myotis species, with a relative abundance 6-10 times higher compared to non-wetlands. They were also preferred by the silver-haired hoary and big brown group, but less significantly, with the species also frequenting meadow bluffs.
In 2019, the residents of Glade, B.C., learned they had no right to clean drinking water, after members of the Kootenay community waged a legal battle against forestry companies logging in their watershed. A judge sided with the timber companies, arguing that their economic interests outweighed the community’s concerns about its water supply. A similar story has emerged in Wynndel, B.C. — another town in the drought-stricken region — as residents worry about planned logging in their watershed, Duck Creek. Here, in the Kootenays, logging on both private and Crown land is pretty widespread. One resident told reporter Steph Kwetásel’wet Wood that forestry in the area has gotten out of hand, and lack of management on sustainable practices has turned the practice into “corporate slaughter.” …about five per cent (or 4.5 million hectares) of B.C.’s forests are privately owned, which means that the public has little insight, and even less say, into what happens.
Kelowna, B.C. – A new documentary, B.C. is Burning, is tackling British Columbia’s wildfire crisis by exploring forest management solutions. The project was sparked in 2024 when Kelowna entrepreneur Rick Maddison, who lost his home in the 2003 Okanagan Mountain Park wildfire, came across an article by retired forester Murray Wilson about wildfire prevention. The two teamed up to create a film focused on solutions rather than devastation. “I’m hoping if these ideas in the film are adopted, more communities can be protected from this ongoing threat,” says Maddison. …The documentary features interviews with leading experts, including scientists, carbon specialists, and forestry professionals, providing a comprehensive look at the problem and potential solutions. “We’ve spoken with some of the leading people in the field,” says Wilson. “Their insights could change how we manage our forests—and how we protect our communities.” The team is hoping to raise $45,000 to finish production and distribution of their film.
A major shift in environmental policy seems to spreading around the world. The most high-profile indicator of the shift is Germany, where Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Green Party coalition partner were thrown out of office on Sunday… The only question left is how far the green wave has receded in Germany — and across Europe. The French government has been accused of watering down environmental regulations. Elsewhere in Europe, green parties have been “kicked out of government” in Austria, Belgium and Ireland. While the Canadian policy establishment resists declaring a trend, the carbon war has moved down the priority ladder, as evidenced Monday during the French-language Liberal leadership debate. A party that’s about to pick Mark Carney, the planet’s top climate-policy powerbroker, as leader, rolled through two hours of debate without coming up with anything coherent to offset its about-face removal of its own consumer carbon tax.
Polarization is gripping the country and the centre isn’t holding, Environment and Climate Change Canada found when setting the country’s latest emissions reduction target. The department solicited feedback… to determine what Canada’s internationally binding 2035 pollution reduction obligations should be. …The results found that overcoming polarization is a major hurdle to implementing aggressive emissions reductions that climate scientists say is required to avoid catastrophic warming. About two-thirds of Canadians who participated support stronger measures to address climate change. “There was little middle ground, and very few people were satisfied with the status quo,” according to the findings. …When asked if the federal government is doing enough to fight climate change, 47% believe Canada needs to do more, compared to 36% that feel existing measures go too far. …Polarization is gripping the country and the centre isn’t holding, Environment and Climate Change Canada found when setting the country’s latest emissions reduction target.
Carbon offsets are unreliable, fraud-ridden financial tokens that often fail to make any environmental impact at all. And if Mark Carney gets his way, they’re going to be Canada’s next big industry. In his carbon reduction pitch, Carney
When U.S. President Donald Trump was elected, Canadian officials issued a weaker than expected 2035 emission reduction target to account for the new political reality. Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said in an interview that after the U.S. election, the government looked at the opportunities and weighed the risks. Competitiveness was top of mind, more so than tariff threat, he said. “Certainly the United States does factor into the competitiveness issue,” he said. “Clearly the United States is moving away from any kind of regulation relating to climate.” …Wilkinson’s comments are the clearest indication yet of American influence on Canada’s plan to navigate the unfolding energy transition away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy. …Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, characterized Canada’s “weak” target as “obeying in advance” to U.S. interests.
Don’t miss the March edition of the BC Forest Safety Council newsletter. It’s jam-packed with information about Safety Heros like Shawn Flynn and Brian Penny. Health updates about pain management, off-road vehicles, managing the last of the snow and daylight savings! How do you stay safe when you find yourself under water? Does your team have an emergency response plan? Plus, what’s new, upcoming events, and even a cheerful rabbit for you to colour in your down moments! Check out this month’s BC Forest Safety News
The Alberta Occupational Health and Safety Appeal Body has denied an appeal from a West Fraser Mills worker who was suspended for one day without pay and received a disciplinary letter that he claimed was retaliation for acting in compliance with workplace safety rules. The appeal panel upheld the original ruling, noting that it properly applied the standard of review in determining the employer had met its burden of proof. The case involved S.G., an employee of West Fraser Mills Ltd., operating as Ranger Board. S.G. filed a complaint under section 19 of Alberta’s Occupational Health and Safety Act (the Act), alleging the discipline was imposed in retaliation for acting in compliance with occupational health and safety requirements.
A B.C. company has been fined just under $9,000 for the death of a worker. A WorkSafeBC penalty summary posted online says Crescent Bay Construction Ltd. was fined $8,995.26 on Jan. 23 for the incident at a worksite in Beaton, located south of Revelstoke on the shores of Upper Arrow Lake. “This firm was performing maintenance work on a bridge deck on a forest service road,” said the penalty summary. “WorkSafeBC attended the site after a worker was struck by a tree that fell from a cliff face above the work area. The worker sustained fatal injuries.” WorkSafeBC says their investigation determined “the firm did not adequately identify the hazard of dangerous trees or assess the risks they presented to workers.” The company also failed to “conduct a dangerous tree assessment by a qualified person before work began and failed to ensure the health and safety of all workers at the worksite, both high-risk violations.”
Consultation on proposed B.C. Exposure Limits (ELs) based on the new or revised 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 ACGIH TLVs for selected chemical substances. The American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) regularly publishes a list of substances for which they have set new or revised Threshold Limit Values (TLVs). A TLV is the airborne concentration of a chemical substance where it is believed that nearly all workers may be exposed over a working lifetime and experience no adverse health effects. TLVs may be expressed as an 8-hour time-weighted average (TWA), 15-minute short-term exposure limit (STEL), or ceiling limit. Before adopting new or revised TLVs published by the ACGIH, WorkSafeBC reviews relevant data on health effects and the availability of validated sampling methods. …We are requesting stakeholder feedback on the proposed B.C. ELs for 22 substances. Feedback will be accepted until 4:30 p.m. on Friday, March 14, 2025.