With a potential trade war looming between the U.S. and Canada, nine in 10 Canadian business leaders “wholeheartedly believe” that the federal and provincial governments “must stand firm in protecting Canada’s sovereignty and values” and that includes fighting tariffs with tariffs even if it hurts their business, finds a new survey by KPMG in Canada. Over eight in 10 want a targeted, dollar-for-dollar retaliatory response. “Our poll findings reveal that Canadian business leaders believe Canada must stand firm even if it means being caught in the crossfire,” says Benjie Thomas, Chief Executive Officer and Senior Partner, KPMG in Canada. …While 80 per cent are now preparing or bracing for a recession, 81 per cent are willing to endure the short-term pain of retaliatory tariffs if Canada can negotiate a fair deal that protects the country’s trade-based economy, independence and sovereignty. …KPMG surveyed 250 business leaders across Canada to gauge their reaction to Trump’s tariff threats and what actions, if any, they had already taken or were planning to take.
Canadian producers of softwood lumber are bracing for a decision this week from the U.S. Department of Commerce that could mean a surge in anti-dumping duty rates, compounding the industry’s worries over President Donald Trump’s threats for sweeping tariffs on all imports from Canada. Most Canadian producers are currently paying 7.66% in anti-dumping duties, but that could jump to 20 per cent, trade experts say. The Commerce Department’s decision, slated for Thursday, will be preliminary, with an effective date in August. …Analysts are [also] predicting that there will be higher countervailing duty rates, with the Commerce Department scheduled to issue a preliminary ruling in May. Forestry analyst Russ Taylor forecast that countervailing duties could rise to about 10%. Most Canadian softwood producers are paying countervailing and anti-dumping duties that currently total 14.4 per cent. …The Commerce Department’s administrative review is based on softwood markets in 2023, when prices were low. [to access the full story, a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
Another day, another tariff threat for markets to digest. This time it’s lumber getting whipsawed, as U.S. President Donald Trump says he is going to bring in tariffs on Canadian lumber imports to the U.S. soon. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday evening, Trump added lumber to the list of items he plans to slap tariffs on in the near future. …Canada would feel any such policy directly, but perhaps not as painfully as you might think. As is the case with oil, lumber is one front in the trade war where Canada can do a lot of collateral damage of its own. …While the U.S. theoretically has enough trees to meet its own needs, ramping things up both in terms of the logs and the capacity to process them would be next to impossible in the short term. Recall during the pandemic when Canadian lumber prices spiked by more than 300%, yet U.S. buyers kept buying.
LONDON/BRUSSELS — The US paper and pulp industry is lobbying the Trump administration to ask the EU to declare the US deforestation-free, a step that could make it easier for exporters to meet the bloc’s new environmental rules. From December, the European Union’s anti-deforestation policy will ban imports of commodities linked to forest destruction. Brussels already delayed the policy’s launch by a year. …”A delay does not solve our concerns with the regulation’s complex requirements and significant technical barriers,” said Heidi Brock, CEO of the American Forest and Paper Association (AF&PA). …The law does not contain a category of countries deemed to be deforestation-free – despite EU lawmakers attempting unsuccessfully to add a new “no risk” category of countries which would face even lighter rules. Any changes to the EU law would require a legal proposal from the Commission, and approval from EU lawmakers and member states.
WASHINGTON — President Trump is taking a blowtorch to the rules that have governed world trade for decades. The 
SQUAMISH, BC — Peter Dickson has owned FraserWood Industries, a Squamish-based timber manufacturer, since 1998. He has grown his business, earning contracts near and far, including the Sea to Sky Gondola service building and log cabins at Walt Disney World. One third of his business is exported to the US. …“The biggest problem is our American customers will be reluctant to sign moving forward with the uncertainty.” …David Girard sits on the government relations committee for the Sea to Sky Canadian Home Builders Association, and he said the tariffs would have an outsized impact on consumers and demand for Canadian products, and cause reduced employment. According to a recent survey by KPMG, 48% of Canadian companies contacted said they would invest or produce in the U.S. to retain American customers and reduce costs. But for FraserWood, that’s not an option.
WILLIAMS LAKE, BC — The City of Williams Lake has cancelled a lobbying junket to Victoria on the news Adrian Dix, minister of Energy, plans to meet with BC Hydro to discuss the imminent shut-down of the Atlantic Power station. The plant, which generates electricity through the burning of wood waste, is Williams Lake’s biggest industrial taxpayer. The company that owns it plans to shut down soon, unless the province can assure it better power rates and reliable fibre supply. The city has been lobbying the provincial government to prevent the power plant from shutting down, and had planned to converge on the BC Legislature tomorrow for the first day of the new BC legislative session. …The Atlantic Power plant is an independent power producers with a power purchase agreement with BC Hydro. The plant is owned by I Squared Capital, an American private equity investment firm.
B.C.’s rookie forests minister Ravi Parmar had a strong case to make as he travelled to Sacramento last week to meet with California business and government representatives. The state lost more than 16,000 structures in the recent wildfires … and California’s construction industry knows it will need B.C. and Alberta lumber for a rebuild that will take years. …Parmar says U.S. insurance companies confirmed that high-sticking Canada with more border fees for lumber will drive up costs for California fire claims and other new construction. A classic case for this dysfunctional relationship is Interfor Corp. …now one of the biggest lumber producers in the world, with a strategy to respond to trade attacks by expanding U.S. production. …Canadian forest companies shifting their investment to the U.S. involves other factors, such as pine beetle damage and governments restricting timber supply to satisfy often overblown environmental protests. But the effect is what Trump is after, moving jobs from Canada to the U.S.
The first session of B.C.’s 43rd Parliament opens Feb. 18, with traditional rituals like the Speech from the Throne. …This threat [of US tariffs] has since become much more real. Double-digit tariffs from the United States on key exports such as energy, minerals and lumber now loom over B.C. with some potentially reaching or exceeding 50 per cent in the case of aluminum and lumber. “The lumber industry, in particular, is vulnerable,” Werner Antweiler, Chair in International Trade Policy, at UBC’s Sauder School of Business said. “They are not very profitable at the moment and any further setback in terms of accessing the U.S. market will really hit hard. So I’m really worried about jobs in the lumber industry.” …But the threat of tariffs could also spur developments that government has previously neglected. They include efforts to finally break down barriers between provinces.
NEW YORK — Mercer International reported fourth quarter 2024 net income of $16.7 million compared to a net loss of $87.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and a net loss of $17.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. Q4 revenues were $488 million, down from $502 million in Q3, 2024 but up from $470 million in Q4, 2023. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, CEO, stated: “In the fourth quarter of 2024, softwood pulp prices remained strong, decreasing slightly from recent record prices.” …Hardwood pulp prices in China and North America decreased in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the market absorbed capacity increases from earlier in the year. …Lumber sales realizations increased, driven by modestly higher prices in the U.S. market, while in Europe, prices remained stable.
If Canada is hit with 25% tariffs… the trade impacts for the forest products sector will be wide ranging. …Lumber is the most talked about commodity with respect to tariffs, largely due to the size of the market but also the fact that tariffs would be in addition to duties which are already being paid and are set to rise come August. The US can’t supply its own lumber demand and will have to continue to import Canadian lumber. Prices will rise. …The US is even more reliant on OSB from Canada. …In softwood, ~70% of demand is met by imports and in hardwood the proportion is even higher, at 89%. Canada is the largest softwood pulp supplier to the US, representing 74% of imports; a 25% tariff on Canadian goods would inevitably result in higher costs for US customers that produce paper, packaging and tissue. There are no easy near-term substitution options.
Lumber futures have recently surged past $610 per thousand board feet, reaching a near three-month high as market conditions tighten. A combination of mill closures, reduced North American production capacity, and tariff concerns has led to increasing volatility in the lumber market. Investors and traders are closely watching these developments, as the outlook for lumber futures remains uncertain amid ongoing supply and trade disruptions. …One of the primary drivers behind the latest rally in lumber futures is the ongoing reduction in North American production capacity. …Adding to the supply concerns is the looming increase in U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber. For traders, this means increased volatility in lumber futures as market participants react to policy changes. Higher tariffs could discourage Canadian exports, forcing buyers to seek alternative sources or absorb the additional costs, further driving up lumber futures prices.
BURNABY, BC — Interfor recorded a net loss in Q4, 2024 of $49.9 million compared to a Net loss of $105.7 million in Q3, 2024 and a net loss of $169.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $80.4 million on sales of $746.5 million in Q4, 2024. …For the full year, Interfor reported a net loss of $304 million in 2024, a 14% increase from the $267 million net loss in 2023. Total sales fell 9% to $3 billion, down from $3.3 billion in the previous year. …Near-term volatility could be further impacted by a potential tariff on Canadian lumber exports… however, the Company is well positioned with a diversified product mix in Canada and the U.S., with approximately 60% of its total lumber produced and sold within the U.S. …Despite challenges, the company remains positioned to adjust production and capital spending in response to market conditions. …The company plans to invest $85 million in 2025, including the continued rebuild of the Thomaston, Georgia sawmill.
VANCOUVER, BC — Western Forest Products announced improved fourth quarter and fiscal 2024 results compared to the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $14.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, as compared to negative $1.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, and negative EBITDA of $10.7 million in the third quarter of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $8.9 million for fiscal 2024, as compared to negative $29.9 million in fiscal 2023. Net loss was $1.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, as compared to a net loss of $14.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, and a net loss of $19.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. …“Despite challenging markets, we were successful in returning our business to positive EBITDA in 2024,” said Steven Hofer, CEO. …“The planned incremental US tariff will unfairly target and harm Canadian exporters like us, [and] will also hurt American consumers through higher lumber prices.” …We have informed customers of our intention to pass on the incremental US tariff.
California home builders say they have very little choice but to continue buying Canadian softwood lumber from places like British Columbia, even if US President Donald Trump issues a 25% penalty on imports next month. The state is in the midst of its rebuilding efforts from the Pacific Palisades wildfires that ravaged the Los Angeles area. …Dan Dunmoyer, who is the president of the California Building Industry Association said the rebuild will become a lot more costly. …“The price of lumber is already starting to go up some even without the tariffs in place out of uncertainty, which again is a reason not to move quickly on tariffs. …“We are very desirous to rebuild as quickly as possible and at the lowest cost possible. The timing of tariffs or additional costs to softwood lumber coming from Canada is very ill-timed.”

High Point, N.C. — After a successful first year, British Columbia wood expert
The Government of British Columbia recently approved and enacted changes to the BC Building Code to enable just a single staircase for new small multi-unit residential buildings. However, in response to Vancouver City Council’s approved directive requesting City staff to consider similar changes to the separate Vancouver Building Code, City staff are strongly opposing such a flexible allowance, primarily due to safety concerns. This negative recommendation to City Council takes into account critical feedback previously provided by fire rescue departments in BC during the provincial government’s consultation on its proposed changes. The provincial government’s new regulations enable residential buildings up to six storeys — designed for no more than 24 residents per floor — to have just one egress staircase. Previously, such buildings with three or more storeys required at least two egress staircases.
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Big, dense forests full of highly flammable wildfire fuel surround Hope. But the town itself isn’t as doomed to fiery destruction as one might initially fear. While there is plenty of potential for wildfires in the area, a new report presented to Hope council says Hope itself benefits from several geographic features that keep the risk to homes and businesses to moderate levels. The wildfire risks facing Hope have been comprehensively catalogued in the community’s first wildfire resilience plan, a draft of which was presented to council earlier this month. The report warns that a severe wildfire could burn wide swaths of the forests surrounding the town. The forests are dense and full of coniferous trees that bake in hot, dry summer weather. In Hope, the highest risk areas are those that buttress the nearby woods. 

MONCTON, New Brunswick –

OTTAWA, ON

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