
Kelly McCloskey
We reached out to Robert McKellar at Harmattan Risk in August 2024 for comment on the increasing pace of change in the forest sector, shaped by political forces and government intervention. Robert’s op-ed offered a thoughtful analysis of how inherent political risks—especially those linked to Canada–US trade friction—could rapidly unsettle an industry long reliant on stability. At the time, Trump’s potential political comeback was still largely speculative. Since that op-ed, the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Trump’s re-emergence is no longer a remote possibility but a concrete reality that has intensified uncertainty across the sector. With these developments in mind, we reconnected with Robert to update his analysis and explore how the risks he foresaw have become even more pronounced. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]
Yesterday, we featured an op-ed by political risk management expert Robert McKellar on how Donald Trump’s re-election is changing the political risk landscape for the Canadian forest sector. While U.S. trade disputes are not new, the unpredictability of Trump’s approach to trade policy creates new challenges that Canadian exporters must assess and manage. McKellar presents a structured way to evaluate these risks using the devil’s advocacy approach, a method that considers both worst- and best-case scenarios to develop a balanced assessment. Trump has proposed three different types of tariffs—bi-national, product-specific, and reciprocal—which, if applied together, could significantly impact the sector. By examining multiple possibilities, McKellar provides companies with a way to better prepare for potential disruptions rather than reacting in crisis mode. And as today’s
Trump’s executive order to implement 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports, with a lower 10 per cent levy on Canadian energy, was delayed until March 4. …Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said Monday that Canada needs to send the message it will “fight back” after U.S. President Donald Trump said steep tariffs are indeed coming next week. In a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House on Monday, Trump was asked directly whether he was moving ahead with levies against America’s closest neighbours. …While the original executive order was tied to the flow of deadly fentanyl, the president said earlier this month the pause would allow time to reach a “final economic deal.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke to Trump by phone Saturday ahead of Monday’s virtual G7 meeting… updating the president on efforts at the Canada-U.S. border to counter trafficking in fentanyl.
The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated the 

Production at High Prairie Forest Products would be impacted by potential tariffs on forest products going to the United States. General manager Brandon Marsh addressed Big Lakes County council about the negative impacts at its regular meeting Feb. 12. …“Here in High Prairie, we rely on our southern neighbours for roughly 50 per cent of our trade,” said Marsh, “This 25 per cent tariff would greatly reduce our ability to move the volume of product we produce here in our community. With the existing solid wood lumber agreements with the U.S., we already have varying levies of penalty applied to our product, which gets compounded with an additional dumping duty. …Part of West Fraser Forest Products Co. Ltd., the High Prairie operation has a staff of about 140 full-time employees while also supporting a large contractor base for other services. Those people rely an a strong market for their jobs to support families and communities, he said.
VICTORIA — B.C.’s Forests Minister Ravi Parmar says the expectation of more duties and additional tariffs piled onto Canadian softwood lumber would “absolutely be devastating” for the country’s industry. Parmar says the government expects the U.S. Commerce Department will issue anti-dumping duties by Friday of as much as 14 per cent, on top of the current 14.4 per cent duty. It comes after U.S. President Donald Trump told media on Air Force 1 that his administration was eyeing a 25 per cent tariff on lumber some time around April. Parmar says he knows many forestry workers are going to be worried about their jobs and he’ll continue to fight for them. He says the extra tariffs are “very likely” and Canada should take Trump at his word. …He said provincial and federal governments need to continue to make the case that while such tariffs hurt Canadians, they will also hurt Americans.
Hinton Town Council will add its voice in support of the Alberta Forest Products Association (AFPA) advocacy efforts. Nicole Galambos of the AFPA – of which both West Fraser and Mondi are members – appeared as a delegation before council with a presentation called Trade Barriers and Albert’s Forest Industry. “Today [there are] some pressing trade challenges facing our sector, particularly some of the softwood lumber duties and tariffs, in addition to emerging US trade barriers and global competition,” Galambos told council, asking for their help. …AFPA suggested there are six steps the Government of Alberta can take to support the forest industry, the first of which is advocate for Alberta forest products in the US. The second is keep Alberta’s regulatory costs low, with Galambos pointing out that high costs have led to mill closures in BC. The third is … a Build With Alberta Wood Act similar to those in BC and Quebec.
OTTAWA — The federal government has been ordered to reassess its 2022 approval of a popular weed-killer after a Federal Court judge ruled this week the original approval was unreasonable. Justice Russell Zinn gave Health Canada six months to reassess the health risks of glyphosate after the agency failed to show it considered new scientific evidence identifying new or elevated risks associated with the herbicide when it renewed the registration for a product containing it. …Monsanto, has faced multiple lawsuits in the US with multi-million-dollar awards to the plaintiffs, while others have been overturned. …The US Environmental Protection Agency reported in 2020 there were no risks to human health from current uses of the herbicide, but its assessment was overturned. …While the Federal Court’s ruling didn’t speak to the health risks of glyphosate, Zinn said Health Canada failed to show any evidence that it evaluated the new studies.
The Kaslo and District Community Forest Society (KDCFS) revisited previous board discussions about future logging plans needed to mitigate fires. During a Feb. 20 meeting, KDCFS members highlighted the demand for cedar and fir while highlighting that several blocks of hemlock trees have been damaged by past fires, rendering some unusable. The Briggs Creek fire that occurred in 2022 led to the destruction of many hemlock trees that will need to be harvested in the next two years before deteriorating. Society forester and treasurer Jeff Mattes explained that the society’s logging plans for the year 2025 will include utilizing a patch-cut system to reserve some of the trees. A patch-cut system refers to the removal of an entire stand of trees less than one hectare.
Devices used to detect and prevent wildfires in remote forests are expensive, but the one that Northeastern University student Anson He is making will be cheaper to launch on drones over dense woodlands. He is pursuing his master’s degree in computer science at Northeastern’s Vancouver campus. In January, he started a co-op at Bayes Studio — a Vancouver company that uses robotics and machine learning to make forest fire detection tools. He is helping to produce a device that uses less expensive components than others on the market. His role is core to the small company’s success: He is in charge of prototyping the hardware and coding the software for what Bayes calls its Edge device. Other team members work on integrating artificial intelligence into the device’s functionality and connecting the device to servers.
YELLOWKNIFE, NT
Bat species considered to be at risk seem to be in “relative abundance” on the east coast of Vancouver Island. Scott Wilson, wildlife research biologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, gave a first look into data he’s been gathering during a presentation Feb. 20 hosted by Nanaimo and Area Land Trust and Nature Nanaimo. “I’ve worked on migratory birds most of my life and the bats a bit more recently, and we know so much less about bats in comparison to migratory birds,” said Wilson. “I’d say we’re where we were 30 years ago with birds in terms of understanding their habitat needs and their ecology.” …The data shows that in the Nanaimo area, wetlands were significantly preferred by the myotis species, with a relative abundance 6-10 times higher compared to non-wetlands. They were also preferred by the silver-haired hoary and big brown group, but less significantly, with the species also frequenting meadow bluffs.
In 2019, the residents of Glade, B.C., learned they had no right to clean drinking water, after members of the Kootenay community waged a legal battle against forestry companies logging in their watershed. A judge sided with the timber companies, arguing that their economic interests outweighed the community’s concerns about its water supply. A similar story has emerged in Wynndel, B.C. — another town in the drought-stricken region — as residents worry about planned logging in their watershed, Duck Creek. Here, in the Kootenays, logging on both private and Crown land is pretty widespread. One resident told reporter Steph Kwetásel’wet Wood that forestry in the area has gotten out of hand, and lack of management on sustainable practices has turned the practice into “corporate slaughter.” …about five per cent (or 4.5 million hectares) of B.C.’s forests are privately owned, which means that the public has little insight, and even less say, into what happens.
Kelowna, B.C. – A new documentary, B.C. is Burning, is tackling British Columbia’s wildfire crisis by exploring forest management solutions. The project was sparked in 2024 when Kelowna entrepreneur Rick Maddison, who lost his home in the 2003 Okanagan Mountain Park wildfire, came across an article by retired forester Murray Wilson about wildfire prevention. The two teamed up to create a film focused on solutions rather than devastation. “I’m hoping if these ideas in the film are adopted, more communities can be protected from this ongoing threat,” says Maddison. …The documentary features interviews with leading experts, including scientists, carbon specialists, and forestry professionals, providing a comprehensive look at the problem and potential solutions. “We’ve spoken with some of the leading people in the field,” says Wilson. “Their insights could change how we manage our forests—and how we protect our communities.” The team is hoping to raise $45,000 to finish production and distribution of their film.
Polarization is gripping the country and the centre isn’t holding, Environment and Climate Change Canada found when setting the country’s latest emissions reduction target. The department solicited feedback… to determine what Canada’s internationally binding 2035 pollution reduction obligations should be. …The results found that overcoming polarization is a major hurdle to implementing aggressive emissions reductions that climate scientists say is required to avoid catastrophic warming. About two-thirds of Canadians who participated support stronger measures to address climate change. “There was little middle ground, and very few people were satisfied with the status quo,” according to the findings. …When asked if the federal government is doing enough to fight climate change, 47% believe Canada needs to do more, compared to 36% that feel existing measures go too far. …Polarization is gripping the country and the centre isn’t holding, Environment and Climate Change Canada found when setting the country’s latest emissions reduction target.
Carbon offsets are unreliable, fraud-ridden financial tokens that often fail to make any environmental impact at all. And if Mark Carney gets his way, they’re going to be Canada’s next big industry. In his carbon reduction pitch, Carney
When U.S. President Donald Trump was elected, Canadian officials issued a weaker than expected 2035 emission reduction target to account for the new political reality. Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said in an interview that after the U.S. election, the government looked at the opportunities and weighed the risks. Competitiveness was top of mind, more so than tariff threat, he said. “Certainly the United States does factor into the competitiveness issue,” he said. “Clearly the United States is moving away from any kind of regulation relating to climate.” …Wilkinson’s comments are the clearest indication yet of American influence on Canada’s plan to navigate the unfolding energy transition away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy. …Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, characterized Canada’s “weak” target as “obeying in advance” to U.S. interests.
Consultation on proposed B.C. Exposure Limits (ELs) based on the new or revised 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 ACGIH TLVs for selected chemical substances. The American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) regularly publishes a list of substances for which they have set new or revised Threshold Limit Values (TLVs). A TLV is the airborne concentration of a chemical substance where it is believed that nearly all workers may be exposed over a working lifetime and experience no adverse health effects. TLVs may be expressed as an 8-hour time-weighted average (TWA), 15-minute short-term exposure limit (STEL), or ceiling limit. Before adopting new or revised TLVs published by the ACGIH, WorkSafeBC reviews relevant data on health effects and the availability of validated sampling methods. …We are requesting stakeholder feedback on the proposed B.C. ELs for 22 substances. Feedback will be accepted until 4:30 p.m. on Friday, March 14, 2025.