Kevin Mason
As we have stated multiple times over the past months, demand is not coming to the rescue for this industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial. The traditional refrain in the commodity space is that “low prices are the cure for low prices.” Well, prices are depressingly low for many key commodities, notably pulp, lumber and OSB, with precious little rationalization to date. Although some current commodity prices are slightly above trough levels, costs have risen substantially since then. Many softwood pulp mills in Canada and Scandinavia are losing money at these levels, yet there has been only a smattering of downtime concentrated in Finland. The tolerance for pain has been surprising!
For lumber, even with punitive duties on Canadians, a lot of production continues to run despite losing $100‒150/mbf. SYP prices are also horribly low and stuck below cash-cost levels. US producers expect Canadians to take the brunt of the closures, but they will likely need to curtail production as well given that the substitution of SYP for S-P-F is not happening at the speed many had hoped. Canadian sawmill shuts should also spur pulp mill shuts. On OSB, mills are in the money-losing zone and there is more capacity on the horizon with Kronospan and Huber mills soon to start up. Supply needs to be removed, but aside from a couple of temporary shuts from Arbec, nothing has transpired.
Canada aims to establish duty-free access for up to 95 per cent of its exports to Indonesia over the next eight to 12 months, International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said, after signing a trade agreement. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is Canada’s first in the economically crucial Indo-Pacific region since 
NEW ZEALAND — News that US President Trump imposed a tariff of 10 percent on imported timber has come as a relief to industry, which expected a higher figure. Mark Ross, chief executive of the Wood Processors and Manufacturers Association, said it was a relief as they thought it would be higher. “We’ve been working through the essential impact of a tariff on our products since March this year so it wasn’t a shock because we were, at one point, expecting a 50% tariff. “So 10% is a bit of relief. It is still going to have a financial impact on the wood processing industry in New Zealand. …Ross said they were working with exporters to work out how to handle the extra costs. …Ross said the United States was New Zealand’s third-largest export market and continued to grow.
The European Commission proposed preliminary antidumping duties on imports of softwood plywood from Brazil, following an investigation launched 
On 31 July 2025, Metsä Group announced it would launch the planning of a EUR 300 million cost savings and profit improvement programme. Planning is now complete, and Metsä Group will initiate statutory negotiations concerning its personnel as part of it. “Our profitability has been undermined by three factors. First, increased uncertainties in global trade have reduced demand for our products. Second, changes in exchange rates have weakened our result and will continue to do so. Third, the increase in raw material costs and the general cost level has eroded our profitability,” says Jussi Vanhanen, President and CEO of Metsä Group. …According to preliminary assessments, the planned measures may lead to a permanent reduction of 800 permanent jobs. A significant share – 540 jobs – are expected to be in Finland. In addition to redundancies, the planned changes may lead to changes in duties.
Cardboard-box demand is slumping, flashing a potential warning about the health of the American consumer given that goods ranging from pizzas to ovens are transported in corrugated packaging. A historic run of pulp-mill closures is also signaling problems for the companies that make corrugated packaging as well as the timberland owners who sell them wood. International Paper, the country’s biggest box maker, announced last month the shutdown of two US containerboard mills, which make the brown paper that is folded into corrugated packaging. …It is a surprising turn in the e-commerce era. Box makers and analysts say demand presently suffers from uncertainty in US boardrooms and export markets because of President Trump’s tariffs as well as from weakening consumer spending. The sputtering housing market has also hurt, reducing the need for moving boxes as well as packaging for building products and appliances. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
The UK timber industry is currently experiencing a crisis, even as it reports record sales of softwood, raising concerns over supply chain challenges, rising costs, and sustainability issues. The surge in softwood sales, particularly in the construction and woodworking sectors, has overshadowed the ongoing difficulties facing the industry. While the demand for timber has been high, particularly due to the growing construction boom and a shift toward more sustainable building materials, the challenges related to timber shortages and price increases remain deeply concerning for businesses across the sector. …The Timber Trade Federation (TTF) reports that softwood sales in the UK reached record levels in 2024. However, one of the most pressing issues facing the UK timber sector is the disruption of supply chains. The UK has faced considerable difficulty in securing a steady supply of raw timber. The global timber shortage has exacerbated the situation.
Shares in packaging and paper group Mondi fell sharply on Monday after the company issued a cautionary outlook, citing weak demand and falling prices across pulp and paper grades. The warning rattled investor confidence in the paper and packaging sector, dragging Mondi shares to a 12-year low. The company said volumes remained subdued and selling prices declined in most grades, particularly in fine paper and corrugated segments. Citing fragile demand, Mondi described the trading environment as challenging and flagged continued weakness for the rest of the year. CEO Andrew King told analysts that demand for packaging “has not become worse, nor has it become better,” and that weakness in the fine paper market persisted. …Mondi’s warning underscores continued strain across the paper and packaging industry. Oversupply in key markets, weak industrial demand in Europe, and aggressive pricing competition are pressuring margins and volumes across the sector.
Air New Zealand has unveiled Hangar 4, a state-of-the-art aircraft maintenance facility that represents one of the airline’s most significant infrastructure investments. …Designed to serve the next 50 years of aviation, the new facility positions Air New Zealand at the forefront of modern fleet maintenance as it prepares for the arrival of next-generation aircraft. At 10,000 square metres, 35 metres high and 98 metres wide, Hangar 4’s scale allows Air New Zealand engineers to service a Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner and two Airbus A320/A321s simultaneously, supported by an additional 5000 square metres of specialist workshops and engineering spaces. Hangar 4 … is the largest single-span timber arch aircraft hangar in the southern hemisphere. Timber was chosen for its lighter weight, ability to be sourced sustainably – from plantations in Nelson and Wodonga – and for its performance in a coastal environment. …Prefabricated trusses, each weighing 38 tonnes, were built in 25-metre sections, assembled on site and lifted into place…
US civil society groups are urging the European Commission to resist Washington’s pressure to delay the EU’s deforestation regulation (EUDR) or tweak the rules to grant the country preferential treatment, according to a letter seen by Euractiv. The missive, sent this morning to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the Commissioners responsible for green rules, the economy and trade, warns against any backtracking. “We are particularly concerned by the Commission’s apparent willingness to offer the U.S. special treatment under the EUDR as part of ongoing EU-U.S. trade negotiations,” the letter reads. The organisations refer to the joint statement issued by Brussels and Washington in September, which labels the US as posing “negligible risk to global deforestation.” Rick Jacobsen, senior manager for commodities policy at the US NGO Environmental Investigation Agency, told Euractiv that US interests have “ramped up the pressure campaign” to weaken the law before it even comes into force.
Major agri-food companies including Nestle, Ferrero and Olam Agri have warned that European Union delays to its anti-deforestation law are endangering forests worldwide. The EU last month proposed delaying the launch of its anti-deforestation law for a second time, citing concerns about the readiness of information-technology systems needed to support the law. The delay could postpone the ban on imports of commodities such as palm oil linked to forest destruction for another year. The law faces major opposition from industry and EU trade partners such as the United States and Brazil. EU Commissioner Jessika Roswall said last week the delay was not linked to U.S. concerns about the policy. …Contrary to the EU’s aim of simplifying rules for business, any changes at this stage would introduce uncertainty, annoy shareholders and risk the rules being watered down further, the companies said. The EU deforestation law was due to take effect on December 30.
The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) has suspended its Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Asia Pacific Resources International Holdings Ltd. (APRIL) and its corporate group, effective immediately. FSC was recently informed of serious allegations of violence involving Toba Pulp Lestari (TPL), a member of APRIL’s corporate group, and an Indigenous community in North Sumatra, Indonesia. These allegations, which include reports of attacks on community members, if confirmed, would be contrary to the intent and commitments of the MoU. FSC will consider lifting the suspension if an independent investigation is conducted which identifies the root causes of the conflict, and results in the transparent implementation of corrective measures in line with the Remedy Framework. Failure to demonstrate meaningful progress may lead to the termination of the MoU. 
A breakthrough in the creation of an oral contraceptive for wildlife has been made by British researchers – in a significant step towards ethical grey squirrel management. Scientists at the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) have achieved infertility in rats through free feeding of an oral immunocontraceptive, and say initial studies show the formula has also succeeded in attaining a reaction in grey squirrels. Funded by the UK Squirrel Accord (UKSA), the research will develop a vaccine-based contraceptive and species-specific feeder to reduce grey squirrel numbers for the protection of UK red squirrels, trees and woodland ecosystems. …Fertility control is used as a safe and non-lethal option to tackle wildlife problems. …This contraceptive affects an animal’s immune system to prevent it creating the sex hormones and causes infertility in both males and females. Developing a formula that can survive the body’s digestive processes and make it into the bloodstream is a real challenge._-_%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86_%D9%82%D9%85.JPG)
SPAIN — This summer has been marked by particularly severe forest fires in the northwestern region of Galicia, and locals have called for the revival of a once-common practice of burning undergrowth in the winter, Reuters reports. Hotter, drier summers mean more widespread and destructive forest fires, and locals and experts have called for controlled burning and other forest management methods to prevent such large-scale fires. In southern Galicia, the summer of 2025 brought the worst forest fires in 30 years. …Just a few weeks ago, the flames destroyed 190 square kilometers around the village where Perez lives. …Forestry experts and political leaders have said that a lack of investment in forest management and fire prevention over the past two decades has made the situation so dire. Victor Resco, at Leiden University, said that a new approach was needed across Europe at a time when fires are increasingly occurring closer to populated areas.
Brazil will invest $1 billion in the 
The European Commission has proposed delaying the EU’s flagship anti-deforestation law for the second year in a row as it continues its war on red tape. The rules, which would force companies to stop using commodities that have been produced on deforested land, are unpopular with many businesses who argue they impose complex regulatory burdens. Several of the EU’s trading partners have also complained about the law. …The EU’s environment commissioner Jessika Roswall, announcing the delay of the European Union Deforestation Regulation said “We need the time to combat the risk with the load of information in the IT system.” …It’s the latest in a long string of actions by the Commission since late last year to weaken or delay green rules, part of a grand push to get rid of red tape and boost the global competitiveness of European industry. 
In 2024, the Amazon Rainforest underwent its most devastating forest fire season in more than two decades. According to a new study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, the fire-driven forest degradation released an estimated 791 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2024, a sevenfold increase compared with the previous two years. The carbon emissions from fires in 2024 surpassed those from deforestation for the first time on record. Brazil was the largest contributor, accounting for 61% of these emissions, followed by Bolivia with 32%, the study found. “The escalating fire occurrence, driven by climate change and unsustainable land use, threatens to push the Amazon towards a catastrophic tipping point,” the authors write. …The researchers estimated that the total emissions from deforestation and fire-driven degradation in the Amazon in 2024 was 1,416 million metric tons of CO2. This is higher than Japan’s CO2 emissions in 2022, which ranked fifth after China, the U.S., India and Russia.
The failure of carbon offsets to cut planet-heating pollution is “not due to a few bad apples”, a 
Josep “Pep” Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, says he believes countries large and small need to think twice before pledging to collectively plant billions of trees as a primary emissions-reduction strategy to meet climate action goals. “We have somehow sold reforestation as an easier path [to fighting climate change], and it’s not easy at all,” Canadell said. “In my view, it’s not even easier than carbon capture and storage, a technology we’re still developing. That’s because when you bring humans into landscapes and try managing these landscapes, this stuff becomes very complex.” Canadell is the co-author of a 
AUSTRALIA — The Federal Government’s National Bioenergy Feedstock Strategy 
The biggest trees in the Amazon are growing larger and more numerous, according to a new study that shows how an intact rainforest can help draw carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and sequester it in bark, trunk, branch and root. Scientists said 
South Australia’s forestry industry says it can turn its timber waste into aviation and shipping fuel as part of the country’s move away from diesel fuels. The federal government has placed the development and implementation of biofuels as a key pillar of its 2035 climate targets. It also