Kevin Mason
As we have stated multiple times over the past months, demand is not coming to the rescue for this industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial. The traditional refrain in the commodity space is that “low prices are the cure for low prices.” Well, prices are depressingly low for many key commodities, notably pulp, lumber and OSB, with precious little rationalization to date. Although some current commodity prices are slightly above trough levels, costs have risen substantially since then. Many softwood pulp mills in Canada and Scandinavia are losing money at these levels, yet there has been only a smattering of downtime concentrated in Finland. The tolerance for pain has been surprising!
For lumber, even with punitive duties on Canadians, a lot of production continues to run despite losing $100‒150/mbf. SYP prices are also horribly low and stuck below cash-cost levels. US producers expect Canadians to take the brunt of the closures, but they will likely need to curtail production as well given that the substitution of SYP for S-P-F is not happening at the speed many had hoped. Canadian sawmill shuts should also spur pulp mill shuts. On OSB, mills are in the money-losing zone and there is more capacity on the horizon with Kronospan and Huber mills soon to start up. Supply needs to be removed, but aside from a couple of temporary shuts from Arbec, nothing has transpired.
Canada aims to establish duty-free access for up to 95 per cent of its exports to Indonesia over the next eight to 12 months, International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said, after signing a trade agreement. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is Canada’s first in the economically crucial Indo-Pacific region since 
VANCOUVER — Canfor Corporation announced that its 77%-owned subsidiary, Vida AB, has completed the acquisition of AB Karl Hedin Sågverk. The transaction, 
NEW ZEALAND — News that US President Trump imposed a tariff of 10 percent on imported timber has come as a relief to industry, which expected a higher figure. Mark Ross, chief executive of the Wood Processors and Manufacturers Association, said it was a relief as they thought it would be higher. “We’ve been working through the essential impact of a tariff on our products since March this year so it wasn’t a shock because we were, at one point, expecting a 50% tariff. “So 10% is a bit of relief. It is still going to have a financial impact on the wood processing industry in New Zealand. …Ross said they were working with exporters to work out how to handle the extra costs. …Ross said the United States was New Zealand’s third-largest export market and continued to grow.
New Zealand — Up to 119 jobs could go at Carter Holt Harvey’s Tokoroa factory, with locals calling the move devastating for the town. A union representing workers at Carter Holt Harvey’s Tokoroa plywood manufacturing plant says its closure will be devastating for the town. The company has begun consultation with staff on closing the plant and importing ply from overseas, with the loss of up to 119 full-time jobs. The proposed closure follows OJI Fibre Solutions cutting 130 jobs and closing the country’s last paper-making machine at nearby Kinleith in June this year. Red Middlemiss has been a union spokesperson at the ply plant for 23 years. He said Carter Holt Harvey can now make and import plywood from overseas for around 60 percent of what it costs to manufacture it locally.
Timber illegally sourced from Russia has been found in the UK housing supply chain, according to an investigation by Australian forensic supply chain specialist Source Certain. Imports of Russian timber were prohibited in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine. However, the investigation identified a smuggling operation that concealed the timber’s origin by relabelling it as material from the Baltic States, including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The findings raise concerns for the housing and construction sectors, where suppliers investing in certified and responsibly sourced timber face higher operational costs. Industry voices warn that without effective monitoring, compliant businesses are being undercut and the credibility of the wider supply chain is being damaged. In response, UK-based Think Timber has introduced a packaging system designed to provide traceability from forest to building site. Each pack incorporates a unique QR code that, when scanned, verifies the chain of custody and origin of the material.
Cardboard-box demand is slumping, flashing a potential warning about the health of the American consumer given that goods ranging from pizzas to ovens are transported in corrugated packaging. A historic run of pulp-mill closures is also signaling problems for the companies that make corrugated packaging as well as the timberland owners who sell them wood. International Paper, the country’s biggest box maker, announced last month the shutdown of two US containerboard mills, which make the brown paper that is folded into corrugated packaging. …It is a surprising turn in the e-commerce era. Box makers and analysts say demand presently suffers from uncertainty in US boardrooms and export markets because of President Trump’s tariffs as well as from weakening consumer spending. The sputtering housing market has also hurt, reducing the need for moving boxes as well as packaging for building products and appliances. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
Shares in packaging and paper group Mondi fell sharply on Monday after the company issued a cautionary outlook, citing weak demand and falling prices across pulp and paper grades. The warning rattled investor confidence in the paper and packaging sector, dragging Mondi shares to a 12-year low. The company said volumes remained subdued and selling prices declined in most grades, particularly in fine paper and corrugated segments. Citing fragile demand, Mondi described the trading environment as challenging and flagged continued weakness for the rest of the year. CEO Andrew King told analysts that demand for packaging “has not become worse, nor has it become better,” and that weakness in the fine paper market persisted. …Mondi’s warning underscores continued strain across the paper and packaging industry. Oversupply in key markets, weak industrial demand in Europe, and aggressive pricing competition are pressuring margins and volumes across the sector.
Air New Zealand has unveiled Hangar 4, a state-of-the-art aircraft maintenance facility that represents one of the airline’s most significant infrastructure investments. …Designed to serve the next 50 years of aviation, the new facility positions Air New Zealand at the forefront of modern fleet maintenance as it prepares for the arrival of next-generation aircraft. At 10,000 square metres, 35 metres high and 98 metres wide, Hangar 4’s scale allows Air New Zealand engineers to service a Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner and two Airbus A320/A321s simultaneously, supported by an additional 5000 square metres of specialist workshops and engineering spaces. Hangar 4 … is the largest single-span timber arch aircraft hangar in the southern hemisphere. Timber was chosen for its lighter weight, ability to be sourced sustainably – from plantations in Nelson and Wodonga – and for its performance in a coastal environment. …Prefabricated trusses, each weighing 38 tonnes, were built in 25-metre sections, assembled on site and lifted into place…
Major agri-food companies including Nestle, Ferrero and Olam Agri have warned that European Union delays to its anti-deforestation law are endangering forests worldwide. The EU last month proposed delaying the launch of its anti-deforestation law for a second time, citing concerns about the readiness of information-technology systems needed to support the law. The delay could postpone the ban on imports of commodities such as palm oil linked to forest destruction for another year. The law faces major opposition from industry and EU trade partners such as the United States and Brazil. EU Commissioner Jessika Roswall said last week the delay was not linked to U.S. concerns about the policy. …Contrary to the EU’s aim of simplifying rules for business, any changes at this stage would introduce uncertainty, annoy shareholders and risk the rules being watered down further, the companies said. The EU deforestation law was due to take effect on December 30.
The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) has suspended its Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Asia Pacific Resources International Holdings Ltd. (APRIL) and its corporate group, effective immediately. FSC was recently informed of serious allegations of violence involving Toba Pulp Lestari (TPL), a member of APRIL’s corporate group, and an Indigenous community in North Sumatra, Indonesia. These allegations, which include reports of attacks on community members, if confirmed, would be contrary to the intent and commitments of the MoU. FSC will consider lifting the suspension if an independent investigation is conducted which identifies the root causes of the conflict, and results in the transparent implementation of corrective measures in line with the Remedy Framework. Failure to demonstrate meaningful progress may lead to the termination of the MoU. 
A breakthrough in the creation of an oral contraceptive for wildlife has been made by British researchers – in a significant step towards ethical grey squirrel management. Scientists at the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) have achieved infertility in rats through free feeding of an oral immunocontraceptive, and say initial studies show the formula has also succeeded in attaining a reaction in grey squirrels. Funded by the UK Squirrel Accord (UKSA), the research will develop a vaccine-based contraceptive and species-specific feeder to reduce grey squirrel numbers for the protection of UK red squirrels, trees and woodland ecosystems. …Fertility control is used as a safe and non-lethal option to tackle wildlife problems. …This contraceptive affects an animal’s immune system to prevent it creating the sex hormones and causes infertility in both males and females. Developing a formula that can survive the body’s digestive processes and make it into the bloodstream is a real challenge._-_%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86_%D9%82%D9%85.JPG)
SPAIN — This summer has been marked by particularly severe forest fires in the northwestern region of Galicia, and locals have called for the revival of a once-common practice of burning undergrowth in the winter, Reuters reports. Hotter, drier summers mean more widespread and destructive forest fires, and locals and experts have called for controlled burning and other forest management methods to prevent such large-scale fires. In southern Galicia, the summer of 2025 brought the worst forest fires in 30 years. …Just a few weeks ago, the flames destroyed 190 square kilometers around the village where Perez lives. …Forestry experts and political leaders have said that a lack of investment in forest management and fire prevention over the past two decades has made the situation so dire. Victor Resco, at Leiden University, said that a new approach was needed across Europe at a time when fires are increasingly occurring closer to populated areas.
Brazil will invest $1 billion in the 
The European Commission has proposed delaying the EU’s flagship anti-deforestation law for the second year in a row as it continues its war on red tape. The rules, which would force companies to stop using commodities that have been produced on deforested land, are unpopular with many businesses who argue they impose complex regulatory burdens. Several of the EU’s trading partners have also complained about the law. …The EU’s environment commissioner Jessika Roswall, announcing the delay of the European Union Deforestation Regulation said “We need the time to combat the risk with the load of information in the IT system.” …It’s the latest in a long string of actions by the Commission since late last year to weaken or delay green rules, part of a grand push to get rid of red tape and boost the global competitiveness of European industry. 
Increasing tree species diversity is widely suggested as a way to help forests withstand climate change – especially prolonged droughts. But a new international study led by the University of Freiburg, published in Global Change Biology, shows that simply mixing more tree species does not always boost forests’ resilience to drought. In fact, the effects of diversity on tree growth can shift from beneficial to negative as droughts drag on. Drawing on tree ring data from the world’s largest network of tree diversity experiments, researchers found that diverse forests can initially support better tree growth during single-year droughts. However, as droughts persist longer within a year or extend over consecutive years, these positive effects can turn negative depending on local conditions. In some cases, mixing tree species strengthened forest resilience; in others, it increased stress and competition for water. …Building resilient forests will thus require not just more species, but carefully selected combinations and adaptive management. 
The European Commission has announced dates for virtual training sessions on the EUDR Information System, open to all interested parties. These sessions provide guidance on submitting due diligence statements under the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). While these sessions are available to all, WPAC anticipates that most of our members will meet their EUDR obligations through the Sustainable Biomass Program (SBP) system, which we helped to develop. EUDR establishes robust requirements for traceability, due diligence, and risk mitigation. SBP has developed a voluntary EUDR module integrated into its Data Transfer System (DTS), helping Certificate Holders prepare now for compliance ahead of the December 2025 implementation deadline. …Learn more about 
Josep “Pep” Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, says he believes countries large and small need to think twice before pledging to collectively plant billions of trees as a primary emissions-reduction strategy to meet climate action goals. “We have somehow sold reforestation as an easier path [to fighting climate change], and it’s not easy at all,” Canadell said. “In my view, it’s not even easier than carbon capture and storage, a technology we’re still developing. That’s because when you bring humans into landscapes and try managing these landscapes, this stuff becomes very complex.” Canadell is the co-author of a 
AUSTRALIA — The Federal Government’s National Bioenergy Feedstock Strategy 
The biggest trees in the Amazon are growing larger and more numerous, according to a new study that shows how an intact rainforest can help draw carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and sequester it in bark, trunk, branch and root. Scientists said 
South Australia’s forestry industry says it can turn its timber waste into aviation and shipping fuel as part of the country’s move away from diesel fuels. The federal government has placed the development and implementation of biofuels as a key pillar of its 2035 climate targets. It also 
EUROPE — Climate change has large economic costs for society. An important effect is the disruption of natural resource supply by climate-mediated disturbances such as wildfires, pest outbreaks and storms. Here we show that disturbance-induced losses for Europe’s timber-based forestry could increase from the current €115 billion to €247 billion under severe climate change. This would diminish the timber value of Europe’s forests by up to 42% and reduce the current gross value added of the forestry sector by up to 15%. Central Europe emerges as a continental hotspot of disturbance costs, with projected future costs of up to €19,885 per hectare. Simultaneous climate-related increases in forest productivity could offset future economic losses from disturbances in Northern and Central Europe but not in Southern Europe. We find high disturbance-related cost of unmitigated warming, highlighting that climate change adaptation in forestry is not only an ecological but also an economic imperative.