Kevin Mason
Although both US housing starts and sales data are showing some resilience in the face of an extremely difficult and volatile macroeconomic backdrop, several alarm bells are beginning to ring for the U.S. housing market. Mortgage rates, which have moved steadily higher over the past six months, are certainly cause for concern. …At the beginning of the year most pundits, including ourselves, expected some modest near-term rate relief; we are seeing the exact opposite unfold. With the conflict in the Middle East still far from resolved, we anticipate that elevated oil/energy prices will result in continued inflationary pressures through year-end (at least) and elevated mortgage rates will continue to drag on both new home construction and home sales activity (the latter which negatively impacts wood products demand from repair and remodel).
According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, it’s a coin toss whether or not the Fed hikes by 25bps when it meets in mid-September, and the CME indicates an almost 38% probability that the funds rates will be 50bps higher by year end. And unsurprisingly, homebuilder confidence continues to worsen, and the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI slipped by another 2 points to 34 in July. The NAHB’s Multifamily Production Index (MPI) which measures builder sentiment in the apartment and condo market, was off by 3 points.
Effective August 19th, the United States will apply new US tariffs of 50% on a range of BC forest products exports to the US. …While initial news coverage tended to make light of the trade action likely because of the likely symbolic inclusion of hockey sticks, the implications for BC’s already beleaguered forest products sector are serious. …I estimate that BC exported up to approximately $991 million of forest products potentially subject to Section 338 tariffs to the US in 2025. …The impacts of these new tariffs extend well beyond hockey sticks and are likely to be felt across a broad range of forest manufacturing segments. Major producers of veneer, LVL, plywood, MDF, paper products and furniture could be affected directly. However, the impacts may be felt further down the value chain. 
WASHINGTON — President Trump said Tuesday he was delaying the 50% U.S. tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian imports after the two countries reached a last-minute deal less than two hours before the sanctions were to go into effect. The announcement, which Trump made on his social media platform, buys time for more negotiations and avoids, for now, another strain in already tense relations between the historic allies. “I have paused the 50% Tariffs for a three day period, based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL!” Trump posted. …A White House proclamation said Canada had expressed a commitment to remove measures the Trump administration considers discriminatory against U.S. alcohol, dairy and motor vehicle exports. Canada did not immediately confirm those commitments. Prime Minister Carney said “substantial progress” had been made but that important work remained.
A Richmond plywood manufacturer is concerned about what Wednesday is going to bring for his business. Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as officials race against the clock to secure a new trade deal before new 50% tariffs take effect Wednesday. …“A 50 per cent tariff is not a margin we can absorb, nor is it something US customers will be willing to pay,” Bhavjit Thandi, CFO of Richmond Plywood, said. …So far, the BC premier is reluctant to make any concessions such as returning US alcohol to BC shelves without tariff relief for key industries such as forestry. But the Americans have not been interested in discussing softwood lumber. “The softwood lumber sector is bigger than auto parts and steel combined in terms of the Canadian economy and it needs to be front and centre at the table,” Eby said on Friday.
Canada-U.S. trade talks are down to the wire this week as Ottawa tries to avert punitive new tariffs scheduled to be imposed by the Trump administration on Wednesday. …Five sources briefed on the discussions said Section 232 tariffs on autos and lumber remained the biggest points of contention. …On forestry, the US does not want to offer any reduction of Section 232 tariffs on the sector. Instead, the US has argued that Canada should wait for the results of a separate review by the US Department of Commerce that is expected to reduce a different set of tariffs on softwood lumber. …A different source said the best Canada could hope for is an agreement from the U.S. to discuss forestry tariffs further. BC’s forestry industry has been hit hard by the Trump policies because the Section 232 tariffs on lumber stack on top of pre-existing countervailing and anti-dumping tariffs. The B.C. Lumber Trade Council’s interim president, Kim Haakstad, said Sunday she is concerned that if the 232 tariffs stay in place, more mills could close. [to access the full story a Glove & Mail subscription is required]
As the clock ticks toward U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff deadline, Canada and the U.S. aren’t at a point where a tariff deal can be reached — and Canadian officials are not satisfied with the latest U.S. offer, according to two sources with knowledge of the trade talks. According to sources on both sides of the border, the Americans offered a new proposal on Tuesday which would lower some of the sectoral tariffs but not to the degree that the Canadian side would like to see. CBC News is not naming the sources because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Negotiators have been going back and forth in recent weeks in an effort to reach some sort of deal before Aug. 19, which is when Trump has promised a 50 per cent levy on hundreds of Canadian goods in addition to the sectoral tariffs already in place.
Canada’s top trade negotiator has warned her American counterparts that if the White House imposes new tariffs on Aug. 19, the move would represent a “cliff” that risks halting negotiations with the U.S. According to five sources briefed on the discussions, Janice Charette delivered the message in a meeting last week with United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Four of the sources said Ms. Charette cautioned the Americans on the public mood in Canada should President Donald Trump make good on his threat to impose the new tariffs. The sources said she warned the officials that Ottawa would not be able to rein in or control the public or premiers’ reactions and the federal government will have lost the room to negotiate with the Americans. The Globe and Mail is not identifying the sources, who were not authorized to disclose details of their private briefings on the sensitive trade talks. [A Globe and Mail subscription is required for full access]
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Many Canadian exporters are facing the threat of 50% duties on their goods under Section 338 tariffs. …These firms may also need to increase their customs-bond coverage, which guarantees payment of duties and fees if an importer defaults, as higher tariffs increase the US government’s exposure. But trade lawyers and customs professionals say another change could affect far more Canadian exporters… an executive order that seeks to tighten US customs enforcement to crack down on trade fraud and shell importers that evade duties. “They’re going to a stricter importer regime … directing US authorities to strengthen the importer registration, bonding, disclosure, vetting, and enforcement,” said Martha Goncalves, at PwC Canada. …“The US trying to change the global trading system, and this is just part of their playbook,” she said. “Unfortunately, we get hit hardest because we have such a big footprint of Canadian exports going to the US”
Canadian lumber company Interfor Corp. confirmed plans Friday to move corporate support functions to the United States from its Burnaby, BC headquarters. “We recently announced the transition of certain corporate support roles to our Peachtree City office in Georgia, where the majority of our operations are located within the Central, Eastern and Atlantic time zones,” Ian Fillinger, the company’s CEO, said on a conference call with analysts. “This change is intended to better align our support functions with the needs of our business while maintaining a strong corporate presence in both Canada and the United States.” …“This is not a redomiciling of the company, nor does it alter our longstanding commitment within our Canadian operations, mills, employees, or communities,” Fillinger said. “Our leadership team remains in place, and Burnaby will continue to play an important role as our corporate headquarters.” [A subscription to the National Post is required for full access]
COSMOPOLIS, Washington — The US Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], in coordination with the Washington State Department of Ecology, began a time-critical chemical removal action at the dormant Cosmo Specialty Fibers pulp mill in Cosmopolis, the EPA announced. The announcement states that for the past two years, the EPA and Department of Ecology have worked closely to assess conditions at the non-operational facility and identify actions needed to reduce potential risks to the community and the environment. More than 750,000 gallons of waste chemicals remain at the site, and the facility has accumulated more than $2 million in environmental fines. …Weyerhaeuser operated the mill until 2006, when production shut down. …In 2011 the mill resumed operation as Cosmo Specialty Fibers. The pulp mill had been in intermittent operation since 2011 and shut down in December 2022. UK-based Charlestown Investments and Richard Bassett acquired Cosmo Specialty Fibers in early 2023 with the intent of restarting the mill.
From the Arkansas line, in all directions down through much of Louisiana, dipping even into Cajun country, you see trees. Everywhere. The depth and breadth of our pine and hardwood stands and forests are almost indiscernible. …For as long as most can remember, this industry was the heartbeat of rural Louisiana and stood as the backbone of our economy in Louisiana, producing lumber, paper, and dozens of other wood products that generated living wages and pockets of prosperity through nearly every parish. …Total industry output still registers in the billions, yet the practical reality on the ground is stagnation. Major paper mills that once absorbed millions of tons of fiber have closed. …Meanwhile, pulpwood prices sit near multi-decade lows. Our loggers wrestle with rising insurance and operating costs propelled by our judicial and litigious climate while landowners see returns on investment shrink. The giant that was our timber industry is still standing, but it is staggering.
MAINE — Softwood lumber from Canada is already tarriffed at 45% — this round of tariff won’t impact softwood – but it will impact a range of other building supplies – cement, steel, aluminum, copper products – and a range of lumber products like plywood, fiberboard, and oriented strand board. “Right now the cheapest prices is out of Canada and a lot of this product comes out of Canada.” All of these are products that are known for their resilience – used in everything from custom cabinets to exterior siding. Hillside Lumber co-owner Mike Knight says the tariff increase could wind up causing increased demand for American lumber. “They can’t keep up with the demand if we cut off Canada altogether.” That in turn, could lead to higher prices for domestic products too. “Not that I’m against having everything here in the US but I think if the timing is off.” …The increase trickles down, ultimately hitting the home buyers.
There have been three price increase announcements by the majority producers of containerboard in just five months; most recently PCA’s announcement of a $140/ton (liner and medium) increase effective September 1, 2026; IP announced $80/ton for September 1, 2026, and Smurfit Westrock announced $100/ton. These latest announcements all took place within 3 days of each other. AICC believes these increases are without economic justification based on current rawmaterial inputs and economic data. Producers cite (as they have, again without objective justification,and unconvincingly in such a relatively short period of time in between them) economic need, high operating rates (e.g., Inflation, fuel, labor, insurance), and tight supply to justify these increases. AICC is skeptical of these reasons in the current containerboard and corrugated market. Arguably, the increases are reflective of a small group of producers having market dominance.
NEW YORK, NY — Mercer International reported second quarter 2026 Operating EBITDA of negative $21.0 million, a decrease from negative $20.9 million in the same quarter of 2025 and positive $7.8 million in the first quarter of 2026. In the second quarter of 2026, net loss was $76.0 million compared to $86.1 million in the same quarter of 2025 and $52.0 million in the first quarter of 2026. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, Chief Executive Officer, stated: “Our pulp sales realizations remained steady this quarter, as continued economic uncertainty delayed market recovery. Our second quarter results were also weighed down by rising European fiber costs, driven by regional supply shortages and intense competition for sawmill residuals from energy producers. As a result, we recognized a non-cash impairment of $29.0 million primarily against pulp and fiber inventory.
While North American softwood lumber consumption has declined in 2026, prices have remained surprisingly resilient due to constrained supply, reduced production, and persistent structural demand for housing despite ongoing affordability challenges. …On one hand, builders continue to face affordability concerns, elevated mortgage rates, and cautious consumers. On the other hand, lumber prices have generally strengthened throughout 2026, despite year-over-year declines in consumption. Here’s what the latest market indicators are telling us. …The U.S. housing market continues to balance between long-term demand for new homes and short-term economic pressures. …These trends suggest that, while housing demand hasn’t disappeared, the market is adapting to economic realities rather than expanding uniformly. …Although North American lumber consumption has declined year over year, production has also contracted. Reduced output across both the United States and Canada has helped keep supply relatively tight, supporting pricing across many lumber grades.
Americans who act as their own builder put wood framing into 96 per cent of the houses they finished in 2025, up from 93 per cent a year earlier, in a segment where concrete held 2 per cent. That is according to the United States Census Bureau, whose 
Urban conversations in North America often seem trapped between competing visions… between detached suburban development, low-scale missing middle housing, and high-rise intensification. An alternative lies in a form of urbanism that has shaped some of the world
With interest from Big Tech and a new bill before Congress that would expand its use in federal projects, mass timber is on the cusp of a new era of growth. Relatively stable lumber prices that buck the broader trend of increasingly expensive construction inputs are meeting with greater levels of comfort around the material’s use to drive faster adoption after years of cautious incorporation. “There’s a more robust supply chain and we’re getting more experienced,” said Dean Lewis, director of mass timber and prefabrication for Skanska USA. “When you say, ‘I want to use mass timber,’ people aren’t like, ‘What is that?’ They want to know what you want to do with it. The conversation has changed.” Construction using mass timber is expected to grow to a $5.7B market by 2030, with annual growth rates topping 20% to 30%, according to Grand View Research data. [to access the full story a BISNOW subscription is required]
Washington has been developing new wildfire safety regulations for several years, including building codes for homes constructed in risky areas and rules for managing plants and vegetation. But restrictions that affect people’s homes and gardens can be unpopular. After public pushback, state legislators backtracked and repealed some of the requirements. Other Western states have also struggled to pass wildfire regulations affecting homeowners’ properties. …Understanding wildfire risk can be challenging in many Western states. For floods, the federal government releases national maps showing which places are at risk of inundation. Wildfire mapping is left to the states, which involves using complex computer models to determine the chances of a fire based on vegetation, terrain and fire behavior. …Washington state officials say the new wildfire maps will be released in December. …Oregon faced similar pushback while developing its wildfire regulations. …Building codes for housing in wildfire-prone areas were pioneered by California.
When Donald Trump says Canada is mismanaging its forests, many Canadians instinctively dismiss the comment. …But that would be too easy — not because clearing dead trees and brush never makes sense, but because Trump’s call to “rake the forest” turns a complex problem into a simplistic slogan… Managing a forest that stretches across nearly a third of the country is far more complex than the soundbite would suggest. The real question Canadians should be asking is, “Are we managing our forests in ways that can make catastrophic wildfires more likely and more intense?” The uncomfortable answer is yes. Canada’s wildfire crisis is being fuelled by two converging forces: a changing climate and decades of decisions about how we manage forests and fire. …Trump speaks in soundbites not science, so it can be hard to take him seriously. But that doesn’t mean Canada shouldn’t seize the opportunity to have a serious conversation about forest management…
The United States Forest Service is proposing to amend the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) to allow cutting older trees across the western portion of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. As a fifth generation native of the west coast, I have spent a lifetime in these forests as a private citizen and a 40 plus year career as a U.S. Forest Service employee specializing in forestry and forest engineering. The primary proposed change in the 19.4 million acres of forestlands is to allow cutting trees up to 120 years old compared to 80 years in the current plan. Conservatively speaking, 90 or more percent of the old growth forests in the NWFP area were clearcut in the logging and road building boom from 1950 to the mid 1990’s. …The U.S. Forest Service likely lacks the experienced staff needed to carry out the proposed increase in timber harvest. Years of NWFP implementation, combined with recent federal workforce reductions, have significantly weakened the agency’s institutional knowledge. 
As the climate warms, some mountain trees are moving higher up, while others are spreading downhill. Scientists say something inside the trees may explain why. And that split could reshape watersheds and wildfire risk. For years, scientists have expected mountain trees to move upslope in search of cooler conditions. But a new global study found nearly one-third of tree species are moving downhill instead. That matters because where trees grow can affect how forests burn and how much water they soak up before it flows downstream to rural communities, cities and farms. So why are some trees moving in one direction while others head the other way? The answer may lie in how trees move water. Tim Rademacher, a researcher at the University of Vermont and a co-author of the study, says some species can move water quickly and efficiently, helping them grow. But that efficiency comes with a cost.
The Babylon Fire left parts of the burned landscape more vulnerable to flooding, erosion and debris flows, with increased runoff and erosion likely to recur intermittently for five to 10 years as the landscape recovers. The Forest Service’s newly released Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) report recommends emergency work to reduce those risks, including road-drainage improvements, debris racks at culverts, warning signs, closures and stabilization at old mine sites. Although the most severe soil damage covered only 5% of the area assessed, the report identified five drainages with the highest potential for debris flows. The lightning-caused Babylon Fire started June 26 in the Abajo Mountains about 25 miles southwest of Monticello and burned across parts of Elk Ridge, Dark Canyon Wilderness and Bears Ears National Monument within the Manti-La Sal National Forest. …The report says ground cover typically takes three to five years to re-establish and can take up to 10 years, particularly if drought persists.
The northern spotted owl is in trouble—per usual. This vanishingly rare subspecies of spotted owl earned its iconic status in the late ’80s and early ’90s, during the height of the Timber Wars in the Pacific Northwest. For forest defenders, the spotted owl is a sacred totem. For loggers, it’s been a pest. In 1990, federal officials reclassified the raptor as a threatened species, and greens won the Timber Wars with the establishment of the Clinton-era Northwest Forest Plan. The spotted owl left the trees standing—yet the number of spotted owls continued to decline. The culprit? The barred owl. …Today, just 15,000 spotted owls remain across North America; in comparison, there are some 3.5 million barred owls. So officials with the US Fish and Wildlife Service have come up with a bold plan to help the spotted owls: Shoot the barred owls.
Drought and wildfires are straining wildlife and the habitats they depend on across Colorado, prompting Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW) to closely monitor habitat conditions as animals face increased stress in their search for food, water and shelter. Wildfires rapidly alter ecosystems by removing vegetation that provides food and cover for wildlife. While ecosystems are adapted to periodic fire and will recover over time, large wildfires may reduce habitat quality, displace animals and increase competition for limited resources. Species unable to relocate quickly or that rely on specialized habitats are especially vulnerable this summer. …CPW is adjusting hunting and fishing season structures and license quotas in areas affected by wildfire damage, closing boating ramps during extreme drought conditions, and establishing voluntary and mandatory fishing closures to help sustain healthy habitats and wildlife populations. …Give wildlife extra space and respect area closures. Do not feed wildlife; let them find natural food sources. 
Today, many Washingtonians may be unaware that a looming federal policy change could have major consequences for the availability, quality and cost of the freshwater they rely on daily. …In August 2025, the U.S. Department of Agriculture officially launched a process to rescind the Roadless Area Conservation Rule. Implemented in 2001, the Rule designated special areas across nearly 60 million acres of forests within the National Forest System. …The Rule reflects scientific evidence that extensive logging and road building contributed to widespread loss and fragmentation of habitat for wildlife and salmon, and degraded water quality for downstream communities. Just how important are roadless areas in national forests? To answer this question, we conducted the science and 
The soupy, toxic fog that hung over Seattle and the Puget Sound region last week was a constant reminder of the wildfires raging across Eastern Washington. It can feel insufferable and inevitable — that the fires will burn, increasingly in every corner of the state, as the years become hotter and drier. But rather than resigning ourselves to this fate, the smoky skies should reinforce a call to action, for every Washingtonian. The wildfires that consumed neighborhoods in Spokane and enveloped forests in Chelan and elsewhere have a kind of performance-enhancing drug feeding their flames: climate change. As a society, we can choose to deny this reality, but it does little good to do so. The forecast each year will continue to be tinderbox-like conditions. We must do all we can to prepare for it. …Inaction will lead to devastation. Facing this growing risk is the only option. [to access the full story a Seattle Times subscription is required]
The closure of Finch Paper’s pulp mill in Glens Falls, New York, is a blow that will echo across the Northeast for years. For loggers, truckers, foresters and woodlot landowners, this is not some distant threat to worry about in the future. It is — today — lost income, lost markets for wood and the continuing fraying of a way of life. One of us has spent a career in forestry; the other leads a wilderness protection organization. …we both understand a truth: The amount of land we can set aside as wilderness depends on how well we manage the rest of the forest and thus the health of the timber industry. Both wildlands and managed woodlands are needed. …Put simply, wilderness advocates should be rooting for a thriving forest economy. And loggers should welcome a network of wildlands that keeps large forest blocks whole … and models the full range of what these forests can be. 
The European Union Deforestation Regulation has been postponed, amended and simplified since it came about in 2023, yet the central compliance challenge confronting wood pellet producers has barely changed. Producers shipping into the European Union will need to demonstrate that their fiber is legal and deforestation-free, identify the plots where the wood was harvested and preserve the connection between those plots and the finished product. That requirement reaches beyond conventional sustainability certification and deep into supplier networks that were not designed to provide plot-level information. …The delay has given the industry a longer runway, but the remaining work lies at the hardest end of the supply chain: beyond the pellet plant, beyond direct suppliers and back to the land itself. Producers that can make that connection auditable will enter the next phase with more than a completed due diligence statement; they will possess a clearer view of the fiber networks on which their businesses depend.
Under U.S. federal policy, wood pellets are classified as carbon neutral renewable energy. That label, assigned in an overlooked 2018 rider buried in a massive appropriations bill, is worth billions of dollars. The people who lobbied hardest to put it there were investors who may make billions as a result of that controversial decision. Enviva, the world’s largest wood pellet producer, was built with private equity money. Riverstone Holdings first invested in 2010 through its $4.3 billion Riverstone/Carlyle renewable energy fund, then led a recapitalization worth more than $1 billion in 2020, bringing in money from investment firms Goldman Sachs, Mubadala, Fortress, and Neuberger Berman. None of them were betting on wood, but on a label. Take away the renewable designation and the business disappears. It only works when governments agree to count pellets as “clean.” …Congress should immediately strip the carbon neutrality language from spending bills, keep biomass out of clean energy tax credits, and let the EPA follow the evidence.
The contiguous United States sizzled to its hottest month ever last month, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. July averaged 76.89 degrees Fahrenheit across the Lower 48 states, eclipsing the Dust Bowl’s July 1936 by an eighth of a degree. Records go back to 1895 “It’s not good when you’re breaking records from the Dust Bowl,” said meteorologist Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections. …The heat was so widespread that every one of the Lower 48 states was at least 1 degree Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th century average, said Russ Vose, chief of monitoring at NOAA. …What’s happening now is due to the burning of coal, oil and gas, scientists said. “Extremely high temperatures across the continental U.S. this summer, along with intense drought and fire conditions, are absolutely consistent with the climate change signal,’ said Katharine Jacobs, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona.
SEARSMONT, Maine — Two volunteer firefighters died and 11 others were injured after an oxygen-limiting silo exploded during a fire at a Maine lumber mill. The 20-by-60-foot silo contained kiln-dried wood shavings and residual sawdust. Neither facility employees nor responding firefighters recognized that the silo was oxygen-limiting or that its contents posed a combustible dust explosion hazard. Crews directed water through an opening into the silo’s base for more than 30 minutes. At approximately 11 a.m., firefighters heard a “whoosh” as smoke rapidly vented from the top, and the silo launched into the air as fire erupted below it. NIOSH’s investigation highlights the need for hazard-specific preplans, disciplined accountability and tactics designed for oxygen-limiting silos. Recommendations for fire departments include:
