Kevin Mason
The conflict in Iran has extended into a sixth week. Despite growing fears about economic wreckage (we have already seen cracks in consumer sentiment, mortgage rates climbing, etc.), we have yet to see any significant second- and third-order impacts on forest products commodities (the operative word is yet). Despite President Trump’s suggestion that the US will retreat from the Middle East in the next two to three weeks, risks abound. Even with a retreat, the risk to the world’s energy arteries will likely persist; it is only a matter of time before companies in our universe suffer the consequences of the war.
Some cost inflation has shown up quickly (e.g., energy and transport) and will pressure margins as soon as Q2. While a select few companies (those in certain packaging and paper grades) may successfully hike prices to at least partially offset higher costs, for others the downside peril to underlying demand means that margin compression is a risk (prices could fall without supply reductions). As such, while our commodity price and company earnings forecasts have not declined materially, we are adopting a more cautionary approach to valuations and moving EBITDA multiples lower for companies and commodities for which we perceive at more risk. …Several producers in our space needed markets to come to the rescue this year; however, with each passing day that the world is mired in this conflict, it looks increasingly as if 2026 will become another year to survive.
The U.S. Department of Commerce plans to reduce duty rates for most Canadian softwood producers, but they would still need to pay hefty levies of 34.83%. US import taxes on softwood lumber currently total 45.16% on most Canadian producers, including combined countervailing and anti-dumping duties of 35.16% and tariffs of 10%. In its announcement on Thursday, the Commerce Department said it expects to decrease the anti-dumping duty rates to 10.66% from 20.53 %. Most Canadian producers also face paying 14.17% for countervailing duties, down slightly from 14.63%. The revised anti-dumping and countervailing duties equal 24.83%, and when combined with the tariffs, the levies total 34.83%. …Kurt Niquidet, of the BC Lumber Trade Council said, “These duties continue to make it more expensive to build homes at a time when both countries should be working together to improve housing affordability.” …New duty rates are intended to take effect by late summer of 2026, subject to further revisions in a final determination. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
Global trade is being reshaped by escalating tariffs and geopolitical tensions, with the Nordic and European forestry industries directly affected. During 2025 and 2026, the United States introduced a series of trade measures that are altering the conditions for exports of timber, paper and pulp. …At the same time, the US has imposed steep tariffs on several major trading partners. Canada faces tariffs of 35%, although some products covered by the USMCA agreement are exempt. Brazil is subject to tariffs of up to 50% on paper and paperboard, while China continues to face high tariff levels. …Even where products are exempt from tariffs, trade is affected by higher supply chain costs, currency fluctuations and weaker demand. There is also a risk of trade diversion. If Canadian or Brazilian exporters face higher tariffs, they may redirect volumes to other markets, increasing competition in Europe. The broader trend points to a more fragmented global trading system.
On March 31, USDA announced that the U.S. Forest Service will relocate its headquarters from Washington, D.C. to Salt Lake City, bringing roughly 260 positions and the agency’s top leadership to the Intermountain West. For Utah, a state with more than 8 million acres of national forest land and a $12.3 billion outdoor recreation economy, this is a significant development. The relocation does not arrive in a vacuum. In January 2026, Utah finalized a 20-year cooperative agreement with the Forest Service giving the state a substantially larger role in managing its national forests, covering decisions about logging, grazing, recreation, wildlife, and forest restoration. The Forest Service’s Intermountain Regional Office has been based in Ogden for decades. That office will close under the reorganization, but the new national headquarters in Salt Lake City places an even higher level of decision-making authority in the state.
KINGSPORT, Tennessee — A new wastewater treatment system at Domtar’s Kingsport mill is still on schedule to start running later this year, part of an effort by the mill to mitigate odors affecting neighboring residents. Mill Manager Tony Clary updated the Kingsport Economic Development Board on the project’s timeline, the construction of an anaerobic digester, at the board’s monthly meeting Tuesday. The project is at a halfway point, and the new system is expected to ramp up at the end of the year. The mill faced scrutiny from city officials and residents over odors emitting from its wastewater after the site converted from manufacturing paper to recycling containerboard in 2023. The company secured funding to construct a new wastewater treatment system in December 2024 and broke ground in August 2025.
Lumber futures tumbled toward $580 per thousand board feet, marking a one month low as the combination of high interest rates and falling home construction has crushed demand faster than sawmills can reduce supply. This downward pressure is driven by a 14.2% collapse in single family housing starts and a 5.4% decline in building permits that signaled an abrupt cooling of spring activity. While ongoing sawmill closures have removed 1.3 billion board feet of capacity and US duties on Canadian imports remain at 45% these supply factors are failing to support prices against a sharp loss of buyers. The recent surge in mortgage rates to 6.46% has stifled traffic and left builders managing a 2.4% increase in unsold inventory that necessitates immediate price cuts. Furthermore the April 2nd announcement of C$2.1 billion in Canadian forestry subsidies has introduced expectations of more wood availability that offsets the risks of shipping delays through the Strait of Hormuz.
In the first quarter of 2026, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 62, down two points compared to the previous quarter. Despite this decline, the overall reading has been solidly in positive territory since Q1 2020. Remodeler sentiment remained generally positive in the first quarter, even as many remodelers are still working to manage their customers’ cost expectations. Only a relatively small share report homeowners putting projects on hold due to economic and political uncertainty. Ongoing positive remodeler sentiment is consistent with NAHB’s outlook, given an aging housing stock and the lock-in effect of elevated mortgage rates keeping owners in the homes longer. In the first quarter, remodelers reported 21% of their projects were associated with home improvements made shortly after a purchase, while only 4% were for homeowners’ projected to ready a home for sale. 
The News-Review newspaper in Roseburg notified staff this week that it will stop printing and shutter its newsroom, the latest casualty in the long decline of local journalism. “Due to declining revenue, increasing print costs, and broader industry decline nationwide, The News-Review has reached a level of unsustainability that we can no longer overcome. As a result, The News-Review will be shutting down in its current form at the end of April,” the paper’s owner wrote. “As part of this transition, the editorial department will be discontinued and The News-Review brand will sunset”. The newspaper’s website lists 15 employees. …The News-Review traces its roots to the founding of the Roseburg Ensign in 1867. It took its current name in 1920, with the merger of the Umpqua Valley News and Roseburg Review. The paper serves a community south of Eugene that has been struggling for decades amid the protracted decline of Oregon’s timber industry.
Last week, the US Forest Service announced that it will be closing three-quarters of its research facilities as part of a reorganization. Now, experts are worried not only about the number of scientists who might be leaving the agency, but also about how the disruption could affect the gathering and dissemination of crucial wildfire and climate change data. The restructuring comes as parts of the US face what is expected to be a catastrophic wildfire season. The most recent wildland fire outlook shows that wildfire activity is already “well above average,” with more than 16,000 wildfires reported this year. Under the reorganization plan, the Forest Service will close 57 of 77 research facilities, as well as move its headquarters from Washington, D.C., to Salt Lake City, Utah. It will also close all nine of its regional offices; some states will then get their own offices, but others will be consolidated. 
For more than a year, the Trump administration has said it wants to harvest more timber from national forests. Now, officials are asking Congress to pay for the promise. The administration’s budget request would more than quadruple Forest Service spending on timber preparation and sales in the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1, even as many other agency priorities face steep reductions or elimination. The proposal calls for $175 million in the forest products account, up from $39 million this year. The administration didn’t ask for an increase a year ago, as it was settling in after taking the reins from the Biden administration. Spending on forest products has been flat for years, said Nick Smith, a spokesperson for the American Forest Resource Council, which represents companies harvesting timber from federal lands… saying the requested increase was a long-overdue investment in a programme that had operated at a small scale for decades. [to access the full story an E&E subscription is required]
The administrative architecture of America’s national forests is undergoing its most radical transformation in decades. In a series of swift moves designed to prioritize industrial output over conservation, the Trump administration has initiated a sweeping overhaul of the US Forest Service (USFS), relocating its headquarters and dismantling the regional oversight structures. …By moving the agency’s center of gravity from Washington, DC, to Salt Lake City, Utah, and shuttering nine regional offices, the administration is pivoting away from a centralized, science-driven conservation model toward a decentralized system focused on the immediate extraction of timber and wood products. For rural America, the impact is twofold. While the administration is pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into the timber industry and sawmill infrastructure, the move guts the scientific research and environmental safeguards that many rural communities rely on. This transition effectively replaces long-term ecological stewardship with a short-term commodity-driven mandate.
Placerville, Calif., bears all the markers of a community at risk of a wildfire. The city’s rolling hillsides are dense with brush, which dries out during the hot summers. Older homes made of wood, which are more prone to igniting, are dotted throughout. …Local officials are trying to do something about it. The community is one of a handful 
The U.S. Forest Service is shutting down research stations around the country, including centers in Portland, Seattle, and Wenatchee, Washington. Though much of the stations’ research is long-term, some fire experts say the cuts could hamper firefighting efforts as soon as this summer. …The agency is shutting down 50 of its 70 research stations. More than 200 people work in the Northwest research stations that are closing. …“There is a position for every permanent employee willing to accept reassignment,” Forest Service Chief Thomas Schultz Jr. said in a memo to research branch staff. Schultz Jr., a Trump appointee, was previously a lobbyist for Idaho Forest Group, one of the nation’s largest lumber producers, based in Coeur d’Alene. …Nick Smith, a spokesperson for the American Forest Resource Council, a Western states timber industry group, said he welcomes the Forest Service restructuring.
As Washington’s current snowpack conditions become worse than last year, a statewide drought emergency has been declared. It’s the fourth drought emergency for the state in as many years. According to Casey Sixkiller, director of the Washington State Department of Ecology, “widespread shortages and challenges across our state” are expected. “Going into April with half of our usual snowpack is alarming,” Sixkiller said. “… Issuing a drought emergency now helps water users prepare for what is likely to be a very difficult summer. This is becoming an all-too-common experience and is another example of how climate change is visibly reshaping our landscape.” The Department of Ecology declared the drought emergency on April 8.
MONTANA — The U.S. Forest Service plans to create a logging unit across regional national forests, seeking to boost economic stability by committing to process timber only via local businesses. The new Sustained Yield Unit – a concept created by 1944 federal law – would include 22 Montana counties and all of Helena-Lewis & Clark and Beaverhead-Deerlodge national forests, as well as most of Custer Gallatin. …Speaking for the Governor’s Office, Amanda Kaster, director of Montana’s Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, expressed the state’s strong support. …The draft plan estimates that the unit would directly support 192 jobs per year over the next decade, plus an additional 225 jobs via economic ripple effects. But the Marks saw the yield unit’s harvest plan as inadequately ambitious. …Barb Cestero, Montana director at the Wilderness Society, feared that given the Forest Service’s recent staff cuts, a potential over-emphasis on logging could be problematic.
COULTERVILLE, California – Teddy Roosevelt, John Muir and Gifford Pinchot are turning over in their graves as Donald Trump launches a devastating war against the conservation movement. “With the subtlety of a wrecking ball and the morality of a foreclosure notice the Trump administration announced the most devastating attack on the US Forest Service in the agency’s 121-year history. …The administration announced it would move the USFS headquarters out of Washington, D.C. to Salt Lake City, Utah. “They’re shuttering every single one of the 10 regional offices that have governed this agency and with them, the career professionals,” wrote Jim Pattiz. More than 50 research outlets across 31 states are set to close, labs that house decades of irreplaceable long-term science, “the kind you literally cannot restart once it’s gone,” Pattiz says. …Unfortunately, conservation groups like the Sierra Club built by John Muir have lost their focus and their power to bring change.
In 2001, the Forest Service signed the Roadless Rule. The Trump administration is seeking to rescind the rule. During a brief public comment period, 99% of the respondents opposed the idea. The Roadless Rule affected 58.5 million acres of Forest Service roadless lands and put them off-limits to new road construction, logging, and road reconstruction. As the Forest Service recognized in its original review, these roadless lands “have the greatest likelihood of altering and fragmenting landscapes, resulting in immediate, long-term loss of roadless area values and characteristics.” Abolishing protection from logging and roading provided by the Roadless Rule has major economic consequences, both in direct costs and in avoided costs. For instance, a practical rationale for the rule is the Forest Service’s acknowledgment that the roughly 370,000 miles of existing Forest Service road network could not be maintained. There is already an $11 billion backlog in road maintenance, and creating even more roads would exacerbate this situation.
For the last 25 years, 58 million acres of American forest have had no new roads, no logging equipment, and no reason to appear on anyone’s industrial map. This year that is changing — and much faster than most people realize. The 
BOSTON — Urban forestry is a noble and necessary pursuit, yielding environmental and health benefits almost too numerous to count. …Urban forests, broadly speaking, also happen to be sources of large amounts of wood waste. The most recent estimates from the USDA Forest Service indicate that 46 million tons of sellable wood from urban areas is felled each year, most of which gets chipped, landfilled, or burned for energy. There is a missed opportunity afoot; not one of those pathways—with the possible exception of biomass power generation—involves making something of tangible value that’s inversely proportional to the amount of waste being generated. …Tridome Structures, a Massachusetts-based manufacturer of mass timber products, saw the gap in the Northeast market and acted accordingly. Only six months ago, the company opened a subsidiary mill operation called TimberWise in the town of Millis, a Boston suburb.