Kevin Mason
Rising inflation and interest rates are getting a lot of press lately for good reason, but one specific force hitting all our companies is skyrocketing diesel prices. Commentary suggests the worst is yet to come, especially as refining capacity has been targeted in various war zones. According to a recent Doomberg article, “It is now certain that a full-blown and extended global diesel emergency is unavoidable, and the only questions remaining are those of degree and fallout.” High diesel prices hurt companies from the start of the supply chain (harvesting) through to delivery of the final product. Companies across our coverage universe have called out diesel and freight-based headwinds on earnings calls and in investor presentations… most notably, Smurfit Westrock.
The reality is that US has plenty of diesel, but prices are rising due to actions in the global market. As such, US prices could be capped, and likely reduced, if the Administration halts/reduces diesel exports. That would be beneficial for many US companies/consumers, but would leave Europeans in the lurch. Given the upcoming mid-terms, it isn’t a stretch to see an export reduction, but problems would spread rapidly around the globe as the U.S. is currently the world’s largest diesel exporter. Does the U.S. share the pain or “export” the pain to others? We think the odds are on the latter. Forestry contractors around the globe are pushing for government intervention, ranging from tax relief to additional grants or supports. A swift response is needed.
Plaintiffs led by the Canadian government will appeal the Court of International Trade’s July 27 ruling that upheld the Commerce Department’s use of a differential pricing analysis to detect masked dumping in a case challenging the 2021 administrative review of the antidumping duty order on Canadian softwood lumber, according to a Sept. 23 
President Trump’s ban on nearly $1 billion worth of Canadian goods went into effect Tuesday, marking the latest salvo in a trade war between the U.S. and its longtime ally to the north. The restrictions include Canadian dairy products, motor vehicles and many alcoholic beverages. Trump, in signing the executive orders to ban the goods, cited Canadian “discrimination” against the American equivalents. Jacob Jensen, as the American Action Forum, said the limits cover $967 million worth of Canadian imports, based on 2025 data. The president last month slapped 50 percent tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian products, levies that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government matched “dollar for dollar. …Carney, meanwhile, has used the trade dispute with Trump to shift his country’s cooperative focus elsewhere. 
President Trump’s near-global tariff policy is being challenged in federal court — again. A panel of three judges at the US Court of International Trade heard arguments from a group of small businesses and Democratic-led states who say Trump’s sweeping “Section 301” tariffs overstep the law. It’s the third time in less than two years that the courts have been asked to intervene against the president’s attempt to impose sweeping tariffs on the vast majority of U.S. imports. The latest tariffs put 10% or 12.5% rates on goods from 86 countries, covering 99.4% of US imports. The Trump administration said they were imposed in response to the targeted countries failing to effectively enforce bans on the trade of goods produced using forced labor practices. But an attorney for the challengers said at the start of Wednesday’s hearing that a “constellation of factors” show the government’s justification was a “pretext” in pursuit of reviving Trump’s worldwide tariff regime.
Imported hardwood timber and lumber could be the next wood products to face a US national security tariff, with the Commerce Department’s one-year deadline to report back to the White House on those imports running out at the end of today in Washington. That is according to the proclamation President Donald Trump signed a year ago this week, which requested the update so he could decide whether the phased import duty that Commerce recommended in July last year is warranted. “By October 1, 2026, the Secretary shall provide the President with an update on imports of hardwood timber and lumber, their markets, and the domestic industry,” the proclamation instructs.” …Trump put off the planned increases to 30 and 50 per cent by a year at the end of last year, with the amended proclamation citing “productive negotiations of agreements with multiple countries” on wood products.
The US and China reached new trade and investment arrangements during President Xi Jinping’s September 2026 state visit to Washington, including the relaxation of tariffs affecting lumber and other wood products exported from the US to China. …According to a September 25, 2026 
Washington, D.C. — A steep decline in hardwood exports, the growing popularity of man-made wood alternatives and surging fuel prices have been battering the American hardwood lumber industry. In Kentucky, 78 wood industry facilities, mostly sawmills, have closed in the last four years, according to the University of Kentucky Department of Forestry and Natural Resources. The U.S. relationship with China has been a major source of the industry’s problems and a focus of proposals to address them. China once bought about half of U.S. hardwood exports, according to the Hardwood Federation. Then, eight years ago, President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on imports from China, and China retaliated with tariffs on hardwood and other American imports. The reciprocal tariffs were eventually rolled back, but China’s purchases of American hardwood never returned to their previous levels. …advocates are pushing for lawmakers to pass legislation for $12 billion in agriculture relief, including $200 million for the hardwood industry.
Lumber futures fell to $527 per thousand board feet, reaching their lowest level in two years, as rising borrowing costs weighed on housing demand. Growing concerns over inflationary pressures and government debt have strengthened expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates and fueled a broader sell-off in the bond market, pushing sovereign yields to their highest levels in over two decades. As a result, mortgage rates climbed to 7.3%, their highest level in three years, further straining an already weak housing market. Although lacking any particular economic significance, economists refer to the 7% threshold as a psychological ceiling.
Lumber futures fell to around $530 per thousand board feet, remaining near their lowest level in nine months, as rising borrowing costs weigh on housing demand. Growing concerns over inflationary pressures have fueled a broader selloff in global government debt markets, pushing yields to their highest level in nearly two decades. As a result, mortgage rates climbed above 7%, a level last seen in January 2025, further weighing on prospective homebuyers. Although lacking any particular economic significance, economists refer to the threshold as a psychological ceiling. Meanwhile, lumber-intensive single-family housing starts increased 7.6% in August. Providing an offsetting pressure, Ottawa had announced counter-tariffs of 25% on US lumber and 50% on plywood following US tariffs on several lumber-related goods.
Diesel prices have surged to levels that are creating significant cost pressures for logging and log-hauling businesses, which depend on heavy-duty trucks and fuel-intensive operations. As fuel costs climb, the expense of moving raw forest products rises with every mile, tightening margins and straining contractors who already operate on thin financial footing. These increases ripple through the entire supply chain, affecting delivered wood costs and operational predictability. As FRA President Tim O’Hara notes, “Rising diesel prices are creating real challenges for logging and hauling businesses, and mills have been working with contractors to ease some of that burden. It’s a strong reminder that our wood supply chain succeeds when every link supports the other.” The analysis underscores the need for short-term relief measures to stabilize costs and support the sector during this period of volatility. 
Fueled by supply chain interruptions due to war in the Middle East, diesel prices have reached historic highs in 2026, driving up operating costs across many industries and hiking prices for consumer goods. With narrow margins and significant volumes of feedstock to transport, biomass-to-energy facilities and wood pellet producers face a challenging financial equation. In August 2026, average U.S. diesel prices stood at $5.37 per gallon, according to AAA’s fuel price tracker. Supply chain disruptions due to conflict in the Middle East jumped significantly in 2026. U.S. Energy Information Association data has tracked this trend as diesel prices climbed from an average of $3.52 per gallon in January to $4.91 in March. Since then, prices spiked to $5.60 on average in May, rising to a crushing $6.31 national average by mid-September—an all-time record in the United States.
A US diesel export ban could become a self-defeating exercise that would do little to ease high US fuel prices but could worsen supply and economic disruptions around the globe, analysts said. US President Donald reportedly said on Tuesday he backed the idea of a ban. Average US diesel prices have jumped to a record $6.5107 a gallon. Diesel is critical to the global economy because it powers transportation, farm equipment and the machinery used to make and move goods. High fuel prices stoke inflation — already a pain point for Trump and Republicans. …”Given that a surplus of diesel in the US could paradoxically force American refiners to cut supplies of oil products – potentially within a few weeks – a ban would ultimately be self-defeating,” Capital Economics said in a note. Restricting US diesel exports would wreak havoc on fuel markets in the US and abroad.
The bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act — the first major overhaul of housing legislation in more than 30 years — is good news. But the policy, which aims to accelerate housing production across the country, also sets in motion surging demand for one of the oldest and most consequential building materials on Earth: wood. …As cities grapple with the need to increase housing production and decarbonize the built environment, they must take seriously the ecological impact of these material demands. …Since the 1990s, many North American timber operations have received certifications from forestry-standard groups, signaling to eco-conscious developers, architects, and investors that their wood products were responsibly produced. The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and the Sustainable Forestry Initiative (SFI) cover the majority of operations in North America. …But SFI policies around clearing primary forests are vague, while the FSC Mix label allows a product to include a majority of wood from non-certified logging operations. 
The roadless rule has flaws. Repealing it entirely could create new ones. …Would more roads help or hurt places such as Mill City? A Trump administration proposal would repeal what’s called the “roadless rule,” which prohibits road building and many types of forest management on 45 million acres of national forest. The regulation could be repealed as soon as next year. Supporters of the administration’s plan argue that these areas should be actively managed to reduce wildfire risks, while many conservationists worry that new roads would hurt forests that are home to many vulnerable wildlife species. The forests also provide drinking water and other environmental benefits. Public comment is open through Oct. 6. …However you feel about the rule, the Forest Service currently lacks the capacity to maintain roads and conduct wildfire mitigation and forest restoration projects at the scale needed. [to access the full story a Washington Post subscription is required]
A California group said in an Instagram post that it had located the largest redwood tree on Earth following a two-year search. While celebrating the remarkable tree, the post also provides a reminder that awe-inspiring forests are not guaranteed to last, especially as old-growth habitat continues to disappear. In its post, Sacramento Food Forest described an old-growth coastal redwood as having a “base width of 116 feet,” and said it is “over 1,500 years old and 310 feet tall.” It also claimed the tree is wider at the base than “the largest tree in the world, a giant sequoia named General Sherman.” While these precise claims aren’t fully verified, the post included a video showing the tree’s remarkable size. Sacramento Food Forest said larger redwoods once occupied a 2 million-acre coastal band before widespread logging drastically shrank that area.
For harvesting to be profitable on the scale necessary, we need a competitive market for logs, and our forest products industry was decimated with the earlier cessation of harvesting on federal lands. Today, 25% of our lumber supply, worth about $19.7 billion, is imported from Canada. While we ignored our federal forests, the Canadians have been exhausting their easier pickings. With only difficult sites left, they are cutting back, with more cutbacks planned in the future. In the last decade, lumber production there has decreased by 55%. This is an opportunity that we need to capitalize on. By reestablishing a modest forest products industry, we could create a market for the material we need to thin and harvest. Were we to replace the Canadian lumber with domestically produced lumber, the downstream financial stimulus could add an additional $39.4 billion to our GDP. …Let’s consider some of the possible end products for the thinned and harvested timber.
Officially known as “inventoried roadless areas,” roadless areas are protected under a federal rule enacted 25 years ago that generally prohibits logging and road-building. In Montana they cover about one-third of the state’s 17 million acres of public land administered by the U.S. Forest Service. …The original intent of the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule, in part, was to curb the spread of roads and development into the agency’s wildest landscapes. It was also a recognition that the Forest Service’s sprawling road network — today comprising 368,000 miles — was already beyond its capacity to maintain. …President Donald Trump’s administration announced last summer it would move to rescind that roadless rule, effectively returning those lands to the land-use designations established by each individual national forest. Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which oversees the Forest Service, released a 
AUGUSTA, Maine — A new Department of Agriculture, Conservation and Forestry Maine Forest Service (MFS) report underscores the effectiveness of environmentally friendly practices during timber harvesting. Released Oct. 1, the “
In this months newsletter, you’ll find these stories and more:
NORTH CAROLINA — A few weeks ago, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the draft environmental impact statement for its plan to open the remaining pristine roadless areas of our national forests to mining, logging and road building. Pushed by anti-public lands corporate and industry interests, this raid on the lands that belong to all Americans raises the alarm about the ability to pass an irreplaceable resource down to future generations. …The release of the draft environmental impact statement opened a 30-day public comment period with a now-past deadline of midnight Sept. 21 – less than half the traditional 60- to 90-day comment period traditionally provided for proposed actions of this magnitude. Conservation organizations and others are formally requesting an extension, but past behavior shows the current administration is not interested in what you or I think. That’s why it is vital to raise your voice in support of the Roadless Rule before Oct. 6.
LOUISIANA — Governor Jeff Landry issued an 
The Supreme Court appeared divided and searching for consensus Monday in a major case involving climate change that could determine whether local governments can sue producers of fossil fuels for potentially billions of dollars in damages over alleged marketing deception and the impacts of global warming. Boulder, Colorado brought the case against Exxon Mobil and Suncor Energy. …A victory for the city would clear the way for its claims — and dozens of similar cases elsewhere — to move forward in state courts but would likely not be the final word in the dispute. “This case involves an unprecedented effort to use state law to regulate global conduct,” argued Kannon Shanmugam, an attorney for the energy companies. “If Boulder’s claims are allowed to go forward, some 90,000 municipalities across the country will have the ability to make national and international energy policy by asking juries to impose catastrophic damages on selected fossil-fuel producers.”
BOULDER, Colorado — To walk deep into the mountain forests at the doorstep of the Rocky Mountains, is to encounter the fragrant majesty of century-old ponderosa pine trees famous for lining ski slopes, National Park trails and residential neighborhoods. Now, those iconic Colorado trees — already under strain from record heat and prolonged drought — are threatened by a rapidly growing outbreak of silent killers: the mountain pine beetle. The mountain pine beetle is the size of a grain of rice but can inflict colossal harm to forests. …More than 700,000 acres in Colorado are affected, officials say. Climate change is blamed for supercharging the emerging outbreak, with no end in sight. …The cost of responding to the pine beetle outbreak, along with the financial impacts from other climate-change influenced environmental threats, are at the heart of a major 
States and cities sued the Trump administration Thursday for repealing rules that limit planet-warming 
