Kevin Mason
Although both US housing starts and sales data are showing some resilience in the face of an extremely difficult and volatile macroeconomic backdrop, several alarm bells are beginning to ring for the U.S. housing market. Mortgage rates, which have moved steadily higher over the past six months, are certainly cause for concern. …At the beginning of the year most pundits, including ourselves, expected some modest near-term rate relief; we are seeing the exact opposite unfold. With the conflict in the Middle East still far from resolved, we anticipate that elevated oil/energy prices will result in continued inflationary pressures through year-end (at least) and elevated mortgage rates will continue to drag on both new home construction and home sales activity (the latter which negatively impacts wood products demand from repair and remodel).
According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, it’s a coin toss whether or not the Fed hikes by 25bps when it meets in mid-September, and the CME indicates an almost 38% probability that the funds rates will be 50bps higher by year end. And unsurprisingly, homebuilder confidence continues to worsen, and the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI slipped by another 2 points to 34 in July. The NAHB’s Multifamily Production Index (MPI) which measures builder sentiment in the apartment and condo market, was off by 3 points.
US companies that export to Canada – steel producers, dairy operations, appliance manufacturers, agricultural equipment makers, electronics firms, and paper producers – are now looking at a confirmed 50% tariff landing on their Canadian sales starting September 8. For any US exporter that has extended credit terms to Canadian buyers, the tariff changes the buyer’s economics immediately. A Canadian importer that contracted to purchase US steel at pre-tariff prices now faces a 50% landed cost increase it did not price in. The credit risk on those receivables has moved. Trade credit insurance for US exporters selling into Canada is the most direct policy line affected. …The second direction is less immediately visible but affects a wider range of American businesses. US manufacturers that source Canadian lumber, metals, cement, dairy ingredients or paper as production inputs are now paying 50% more for those inputs effective immediately, with no exemption for USMCA-compliant goods under the Section 338 mechanism used to impose these tariffs.
TORONTO – United Steelworkers union (USW) National Director Marty Warren issued the following statement on the suspension of Canada-U.S. trade negotiations and the imposition of new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods: “Canada was right to hold the line rather than accept a deal that did not adequately protect Canadian workers, jobs and communities. We have said throughout these negotiations that no deal is better than a bad deal. The terms being discussed – including significant tariffs and restrictive quotas on Canadian steel and barriers across other key sectors – raised serious concerns for Canadian workers and industries. The new needless 50% tariffs coming into force today will have real consequences for workers, businesses and communities on both sides of the border. We support the government’s commitment to respond dollar for dollar, but retaliation alone is not enough. Ottawa must move quickly to support affected workers and industries. 
Canadian trade representatives have arrived in Washington for more talks amid a tentative trade deal with the US. …Canada and the US now have until Saturday to reach a deal. …Multiple sources say there are reductions in sectoral tariffs, such as steel and aluminum, as part of the agreement with the US, but none of the sources knew the scope of those reductions. …It’s still unclear how softwood lumber will be treated in ongoing trade negotiations, according to an industry expert. But Derek Nighbor, CEO of Forest Products Association of Canada says that he’s “optimistic.” …Ideally, Sections 338 and 232 which impact the industry would be eliminated, he said. “If we can see those tariffs go away and if we can get a commitment to see Canada and the US get back to the table to negotiate an agreement on softwood, I think that would be a pretty good outcome,” he said.
A Richmond plywood manufacturer is concerned about what Wednesday is going to bring for his business. Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as officials race against the clock to secure a new trade deal before new 50% tariffs take effect Wednesday. …“A 50 per cent tariff is not a margin we can absorb, nor is it something US customers will be willing to pay,” Bhavjit Thandi, CFO of Richmond Plywood, said. …So far, the BC premier is reluctant to make any concessions such as returning US alcohol to BC shelves without tariff relief for key industries such as forestry. But the Americans have not been interested in discussing softwood lumber. “The softwood lumber sector is bigger than auto parts and steel combined in terms of the Canadian economy and it needs to be front and centre at the table,” Eby said on Friday.
Canada-U.S. trade talks are down to the wire this week as Ottawa tries to avert punitive new tariffs scheduled to be imposed by the Trump administration on Wednesday. …Five sources briefed on the discussions said Section 232 tariffs on autos and lumber remained the biggest points of contention. …On forestry, the US does not want to offer any reduction of Section 232 tariffs on the sector. Instead, the US has argued that Canada should wait for the results of a separate review by the US Department of Commerce that is expected to reduce a different set of tariffs on softwood lumber. …A different source said the best Canada could hope for is an agreement from the U.S. to discuss forestry tariffs further. BC’s forestry industry has been hit hard by the Trump policies because the Section 232 tariffs on lumber stack on top of pre-existing countervailing and anti-dumping tariffs. The B.C. Lumber Trade Council’s interim president, Kim Haakstad, said Sunday she is concerned that if the 232 tariffs stay in place, more mills could close. [to access the full story a Glove & Mail subscription is required]
As the clock ticks toward U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff deadline, Canada and the U.S. aren’t at a point where a tariff deal can be reached — and Canadian officials are not satisfied with the latest U.S. offer, according to two sources with knowledge of the trade talks. According to sources on both sides of the border, the Americans offered a new proposal on Tuesday which would lower some of the sectoral tariffs but not to the degree that the Canadian side would like to see. CBC News is not naming the sources because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Negotiators have been going back and forth in recent weeks in an effort to reach some sort of deal before Aug. 19, which is when Trump has promised a 50 per cent levy on hundreds of Canadian goods in addition to the sectoral tariffs already in place.
The US International Trade Commission (USITC) announced its injury determinations in its antidumping and countervailing duty investigations concerning hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam that the US Department of Commerce determined are subsidized and sold in the US at less than fair value and subsidized by the governments of China, Indonesia, and Vietnam. …Chairman Brett W. Doyle and Commissioners Jason S. Kearns and Peter-Anthony Pappas voted in the affirmative regarding hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam. They also found that the imports of softwood structural plywood downfall and stamped and certified softwood structural plywood that Commerce determined are sold at less than fair value and subsidized… are negligible, and voted to terminate the antidumping and countervailing duty investigations for these products from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam. The report will be available on the USITC website by September 28, 2026.
COSMOPOLIS, Washington — The US Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], in coordination with the Washington State Department of Ecology, began a time-critical chemical removal action at the dormant Cosmo Specialty Fibers pulp mill in Cosmopolis, the EPA announced. The announcement states that for the past two years, the EPA and Department of Ecology have worked closely to assess conditions at the non-operational facility and identify actions needed to reduce potential risks to the community and the environment. More than 750,000 gallons of waste chemicals remain at the site, and the facility has accumulated more than $2 million in environmental fines. …Weyerhaeuser operated the mill until 2006, when production shut down. …In 2011 the mill resumed operation as Cosmo Specialty Fibers. The pulp mill had been in intermittent operation since 2011 and shut down in December 2022. UK-based Charlestown Investments and Richard Bassett acquired Cosmo Specialty Fibers in early 2023 with the intent of restarting the mill.
From the Arkansas line, in all directions down through much of Louisiana, dipping even into Cajun country, you see trees. Everywhere. The depth and breadth of our pine and hardwood stands and forests are almost indiscernible. …For as long as most can remember, this industry was the heartbeat of rural Louisiana and stood as the backbone of our economy in Louisiana, producing lumber, paper, and dozens of other wood products that generated living wages and pockets of prosperity through nearly every parish. …Total industry output still registers in the billions, yet the practical reality on the ground is stagnation. Major paper mills that once absorbed millions of tons of fiber have closed. …Meanwhile, pulpwood prices sit near multi-decade lows. Our loggers wrestle with rising insurance and operating costs propelled by our judicial and litigious climate while landowners see returns on investment shrink. The giant that was our timber industry is still standing, but it is staggering.
MAINE — Softwood lumber from Canada is already tarriffed at 45% — this round of tariff won’t impact softwood – but it will impact a range of other building supplies – cement, steel, aluminum, copper products – and a range of lumber products like plywood, fiberboard, and oriented strand board. “Right now the cheapest prices is out of Canada and a lot of this product comes out of Canada.” All of these are products that are known for their resilience – used in everything from custom cabinets to exterior siding. Hillside Lumber co-owner Mike Knight says the tariff increase could wind up causing increased demand for American lumber. “They can’t keep up with the demand if we cut off Canada altogether.” That in turn, could lead to higher prices for domestic products too. “Not that I’m against having everything here in the US but I think if the timing is off.” …The increase trickles down, ultimately hitting the home buyers.
While North American softwood lumber consumption has declined in 2026, prices have remained surprisingly resilient due to constrained supply, reduced production, and persistent structural demand for housing despite ongoing affordability challenges. …On one hand, builders continue to face affordability concerns, elevated mortgage rates, and cautious consumers. On the other hand, lumber prices have generally strengthened throughout 2026, despite year-over-year declines in consumption. Here’s what the latest market indicators are telling us. …The U.S. housing market continues to balance between long-term demand for new homes and short-term economic pressures. …These trends suggest that, while housing demand hasn’t disappeared, the market is adapting to economic realities rather than expanding uniformly. …Although North American lumber consumption has declined year over year, production has also contracted. Reduced output across both the United States and Canada has helped keep supply relatively tight, supporting pricing across many lumber grades.
With interest from Big Tech and a new bill before Congress that would expand its use in federal projects, mass timber is on the cusp of a new era of growth. Relatively stable lumber prices that buck the broader trend of increasingly expensive construction inputs are meeting with greater levels of comfort around the material’s use to drive faster adoption after years of cautious incorporation. “There’s a more robust supply chain and we’re getting more experienced,” said Dean Lewis, director of mass timber and prefabrication for Skanska USA. “When you say, ‘I want to use mass timber,’ people aren’t like, ‘What is that?’ They want to know what you want to do with it. The conversation has changed.” Construction using mass timber is expected to grow to a $5.7B market by 2030, with annual growth rates topping 20% to 30%, according to Grand View Research data. [to access the full story a BISNOW subscription is required]
Washington has been developing new wildfire safety regulations for several years, including building codes for homes constructed in risky areas and rules for managing plants and vegetation. But restrictions that affect people’s homes and gardens can be unpopular. After public pushback, state legislators backtracked and repealed some of the requirements. Other Western states have also struggled to pass wildfire regulations affecting homeowners’ properties. …Understanding wildfire risk can be challenging in many Western states. For floods, the federal government releases national maps showing which places are at risk of inundation. Wildfire mapping is left to the states, which involves using complex computer models to determine the chances of a fire based on vegetation, terrain and fire behavior. …Washington state officials say the new wildfire maps will be released in December. …Oregon faced similar pushback while developing its wildfire regulations. …Building codes for housing in wildfire-prone areas were pioneered by California.
When Donald Trump says Canada is mismanaging its forests, many Canadians instinctively dismiss the comment. …But that would be too easy — not because clearing dead trees and brush never makes sense, but because Trump’s call to “rake the forest” turns a complex problem into a simplistic slogan… Managing a forest that stretches across nearly a third of the country is far more complex than the soundbite would suggest. The real question Canadians should be asking is, “Are we managing our forests in ways that can make catastrophic wildfires more likely and more intense?” The uncomfortable answer is yes. Canada’s wildfire crisis is being fuelled by two converging forces: a changing climate and decades of decisions about how we manage forests and fire. …Trump speaks in soundbites not science, so it can be hard to take him seriously. But that doesn’t mean Canada shouldn’t seize the opportunity to have a serious conversation about forest management…
WASHINGTON — A Thurston County, Washington judge upheld larger riparian buffers on timberlands in Western Washington, affirming a rule that will take 200,000 acres out of timber production. In ruling from the bench Aug. 21, Superior Court Judge Christine Schaller said the Forest Practices Board lawfully adopted the new buffer rule after years of study. She acknowledged the economic hardship faced by timberland owners and that her ruling will be appealed. The board, which regulates logging, voted 7-5 last year to expand buffers along streams without fish. The rule will go into effect Aug. 31 and require continuous 65- to 75-foot buffers. The old rule called for 50-foot buffers on half the length of streams. The Washington Department of Ecology said bigger buffers were need to prevent logging from raising stream temperatures in most cases. The timber industry says the buffers will immediately eliminate $1.8 billion worth of timber and have little environmental benefit
Land managers with the Flathead National Forest plan to approve a fuels-reduction project in the Swan Valley near Holland Lake using an emergency determination on the grounds that it lies in a “high-risk fireshed,” according to an Aug. 18 decision notice. Foresters say the project is eligible for an Emergency Action Determination (EAD) because it proposes to reduce wildfire risk while preserving the area’s old-growth forests. Initially released for public scoping in 2023, the Rumbling Owl Fuels Reduction Project spans 6,200 acres on the Swan Lake Ranger District of the Flathead National Forest southeast of Condon and east of Highway 83. According to an environmental assessment prepared by Jeff Durkin, the district silviculturist for the Swan and the project leader on Rumbling Owl, the project meets the newly established criteria for EAD authorization, which the agency has increasingly used to expedite approval of logging projects featuring a fuels-reduction component.
CALIFORNIA — More than 4 million acres of California forest land may lose protected status under a proposed rollback of the Roadless Rule by the U.S. Forest Service. The federal government says the rollback is necessary to allow responsible timber production and wildfire mitigation efforts. Opponents argue rescinding the rule, which prohibits road construction and logging on 45 million acres of national forest land, would increase development, harm wildlife habitat, threaten water supplies and worsen wildfire risk. A public comment period on the proposal to rescind the 2001 Roadless Rule is open through midnight Sept. 21, 2026. More than 95% of roadless areas are in 10 Western states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming, per the USDA. In California, the proposal would open up 4,416,000 acres of roadless land across the state, which has nearly 21 million acres of national forest, the most of any state except Alaska.
California has adopted the toughest rules in the country to help protect communities from burning. Homeowners in wildfire-prone areas will be required to limit plants within five feet of their house, a protective measure that wildfire experts say can help prevent homes from igniting. …Wednesday’s vote by the California Board of Forestry and Fire Protection comes after years of debate and delays. The state originally considered rules that would have restricted all vegetation within five feet of a house, aside from well-maintained trees. That generated pushback from some communities. …California regulators ultimately struck a compromise. Lawns, flowers and non-woody plants up to 18 inches tall will be allowed, unless they are located directly under the roofline of a house. Trees will be allowed, though branches must be trimmed five feet away from a structure. The rules will apply to new construction right away, but will be phased in for existing structures.
The United States Forest Service is proposing to amend the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) to allow cutting older trees across the western portion of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. As a fifth generation native of the west coast, I have spent a lifetime in these forests as a private citizen and a 40 plus year career as a U.S. Forest Service employee specializing in forestry and forest engineering. The primary proposed change in the 19.4 million acres of forestlands is to allow cutting trees up to 120 years old compared to 80 years in the current plan. Conservatively speaking, 90 or more percent of the old growth forests in the NWFP area were clearcut in the logging and road building boom from 1950 to the mid 1990’s. …The U.S. Forest Service likely lacks the experienced staff needed to carry out the proposed increase in timber harvest. Years of NWFP implementation, combined with recent federal workforce reductions, have significantly weakened the agency’s institutional knowledge. 
As the climate warms, some mountain trees are moving higher up, while others are spreading downhill. Scientists say something inside the trees may explain why. And that split could reshape watersheds and wildfire risk. For years, scientists have expected mountain trees to move upslope in search of cooler conditions. But a new global study found nearly one-third of tree species are moving downhill instead. That matters because where trees grow can affect how forests burn and how much water they soak up before it flows downstream to rural communities, cities and farms. So why are some trees moving in one direction while others head the other way? The answer may lie in how trees move water. Tim Rademacher, a researcher at the University of Vermont and a co-author of the study, says some species can move water quickly and efficiently, helping them grow. But that efficiency comes with a cost.
The Babylon Fire left parts of the burned landscape more vulnerable to flooding, erosion and debris flows, with increased runoff and erosion likely to recur intermittently for five to 10 years as the landscape recovers. The Forest Service’s newly released Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) report recommends emergency work to reduce those risks, including road-drainage improvements, debris racks at culverts, warning signs, closures and stabilization at old mine sites. Although the most severe soil damage covered only 5% of the area assessed, the report identified five drainages with the highest potential for debris flows. The lightning-caused Babylon Fire started June 26 in the Abajo Mountains about 25 miles southwest of Monticello and burned across parts of Elk Ridge, Dark Canyon Wilderness and Bears Ears National Monument within the Manti-La Sal National Forest. …The report says ground cover typically takes three to five years to re-establish and can take up to 10 years, particularly if drought persists.
The northern spotted owl is in trouble—per usual. This vanishingly rare subspecies of spotted owl earned its iconic status in the late ’80s and early ’90s, during the height of the Timber Wars in the Pacific Northwest. For forest defenders, the spotted owl is a sacred totem. For loggers, it’s been a pest. In 1990, federal officials reclassified the raptor as a threatened species, and greens won the Timber Wars with the establishment of the Clinton-era Northwest Forest Plan. The spotted owl left the trees standing—yet the number of spotted owls continued to decline. The culprit? The barred owl. …Today, just 15,000 spotted owls remain across North America; in comparison, there are some 3.5 million barred owls. So officials with the US Fish and Wildlife Service have come up with a bold plan to help the spotted owls: Shoot the barred owls.
Drought and wildfires are straining wildlife and the habitats they depend on across Colorado, prompting Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW) to closely monitor habitat conditions as animals face increased stress in their search for food, water and shelter. Wildfires rapidly alter ecosystems by removing vegetation that provides food and cover for wildlife. While ecosystems are adapted to periodic fire and will recover over time, large wildfires may reduce habitat quality, displace animals and increase competition for limited resources. Species unable to relocate quickly or that rely on specialized habitats are especially vulnerable this summer. …CPW is adjusting hunting and fishing season structures and license quotas in areas affected by wildfire damage, closing boating ramps during extreme drought conditions, and establishing voluntary and mandatory fishing closures to help sustain healthy habitats and wildlife populations. …Give wildlife extra space and respect area closures. Do not feed wildlife; let them find natural food sources. 
Today, many Washingtonians may be unaware that a looming federal policy change could have major consequences for the availability, quality and cost of the freshwater they rely on daily. …In August 2025, the U.S. Department of Agriculture officially launched a process to rescind the Roadless Area Conservation Rule. Implemented in 2001, the Rule designated special areas across nearly 60 million acres of forests within the National Forest System. …The Rule reflects scientific evidence that extensive logging and road building contributed to widespread loss and fragmentation of habitat for wildlife and salmon, and degraded water quality for downstream communities. Just how important are roadless areas in national forests? To answer this question, we conducted the science and 
Thousands of acres of currently protected national forest land in Michigan could be opened to road construction and logging under a proposal from the U.S. Forest Service to rescind a 25-year-old rule. The 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule, which restricts road construction and timber harvesting in designated roadless areas, currently protects about 16,000 acres of roadless forest land across the Huron-Manistee, Hiawatha and Ottawa national forests in Michigan. They are among nearly 45 million acres of inventoried roadless areas nationwide which would see protections eliminated under the proposal to rescind the rule, 
The closure of Finch Paper’s pulp mill in Glens Falls, New York, is a blow that will echo across the Northeast for years. For loggers, truckers, foresters and woodlot landowners, this is not some distant threat to worry about in the future. It is — today — lost income, lost markets for wood and the continuing fraying of a way of life. One of us has spent a career in forestry; the other leads a wilderness protection organization. …we both understand a truth: The amount of land we can set aside as wilderness depends on how well we manage the rest of the forest and thus the health of the timber industry. Both wildlands and managed woodlands are needed. …Put simply, wilderness advocates should be rooting for a thriving forest economy. And loggers should welcome a network of wildlands that keeps large forest blocks whole … and models the full range of what these forests can be. 
For decades, the economics of a pulp mill have centered primarily on fiber, energy and established byproducts. But as low-carbon markets develop, another potential source of value is emerging from the mill itself: biogenic carbon dioxide. Biogenic CO₂ is generated from biomass rather than fossil sources. As governments and companies look for ways to reduce emissions, captured biogenic CO₂ can potentially serve two very different low-carbon markets: as feedstock for synthetic fuels and as a source of permanent carbon dioxide removal. That is beginning to change the conversation around carbon capture. Rather than viewing CO₂ solely as an emissions-management challenge, some pulp mills may increasingly be able to view it as a potential product. For pulp mills, that creates an important strategic question: Which market offers the greatest value for each ton of captured CO₂? …Biogenic CO₂ is just one of several emerging opportunities reshaping the economics of pulp production.
The European Union Deforestation Regulation has been postponed, amended and simplified since it came about in 2023, yet the central compliance challenge confronting wood pellet producers has barely changed. Producers shipping into the European Union will need to demonstrate that their fiber is legal and deforestation-free, identify the plots where the wood was harvested and preserve the connection between those plots and the finished product. That requirement reaches beyond conventional sustainability certification and deep into supplier networks that were not designed to provide plot-level information. …The delay has given the industry a longer runway, but the remaining work lies at the hardest end of the supply chain: beyond the pellet plant, beyond direct suppliers and back to the land itself. Producers that can make that connection auditable will enter the next phase with more than a completed due diligence statement; they will possess a clearer view of the fiber networks on which their businesses depend.
