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The U.S.-Canada softwood lumber dispute stands as the most protracted trade conflict between the two countries…. An important aspect of this trade dispute is the substitutability of lumber products between the two countries. Canadian lumber imports are detrimental to the U.S. industry only when the products are substitutes. In such a scenario, the imposition of trade restrictions would have a significant influence on the domestic market…. We investigate dynamic relationships between prices for Spruce-Pine-Fir, a softwood species primarily imported from Canada, and Southern Yellow Pine, one of the most popular softwood species domestically produced in the U.S…. Our empirical findings indicate that within the +/-3.4% price differential band, the two lumber products demonstrate a higher degree of substitutability.
- In related news Wood Central’s Jason Ross: Canadian and US Lumber Compete Head to Head Just 16% of the Time
Plaintiffs led by the Canadian government will appeal the Court of International Trade’s July 27 ruling that upheld the Commerce Department’s use of a differential pricing analysis to detect masked dumping in a case challenging the 2021 administrative review of the antidumping duty order on Canadian softwood lumber, according to a Sept. 23 
President Trump’s ban on nearly $1 billion worth of Canadian goods went into effect Tuesday, marking the latest salvo in a trade war between the U.S. and its longtime ally to the north. The restrictions include Canadian dairy products, motor vehicles and many alcoholic beverages. Trump, in signing the executive orders to ban the goods, cited Canadian “discrimination” against the American equivalents. Jacob Jensen, as the American Action Forum, said the limits cover $967 million worth of Canadian imports, based on 2025 data. The president last month slapped 50 percent tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian products, levies that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government matched “dollar for dollar. …Carney, meanwhile, has used the trade dispute with Trump to shift his country’s cooperative focus elsewhere. 
The US and China reached new trade and investment arrangements during President Xi Jinping’s September 2026 state visit to Washington, including the relaxation of tariffs affecting lumber and other wood products exported from the US to China. …According to a September 25, 2026 
WASHINGTON — President Trump’s trade war with Canada could intensify the headwinds Republicans are navigating ahead of the November midterms, with its effects poised to reverberate in northern battleground states with crucial Senate races. …The escalating beef with Canada stands to heighten voters’ economic worries and add to the GOP’s political challenge in dead-heat races, analysts said. …Trump’s new import bans on some Canadian goods are set to begin next week, a response to retaliatory tariffs Canada levied earlier this month. …Five of the nine states most likely to decide Senate control border Canada — Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire and Maine. Two more, Texas and Iowa, also do substantial trade with Canada. …“What’s weighing on the top of people’s minds is this general affordability crisis … and they realize that tariffs are another factor that is impacting affordability.”
The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service published a final rule in the 
US Customs and Border Protection agents spent four days investigating Auckland timber processor Hermpac after a complaint from the US Lumber Coalition. The finding was uncomfortable. A wholesaler on America’s east coast had been routing Canadian-origin wood through New Zealand for processing before shipping it into the US. …The purpose, according to the investigation, was to dodge the punishing duties the US imposes on Canadian softwood lumber. This is the first confirmed case of a New Zealand processor being directly investigated by US Customs in connection with the Trump-era tariff regime. …The fight is no longer just about headline rates. It is now about who inspects your paperwork, and whether the value you add in New Zealand counts. …The practical takeaway is unglamorous but urgent. Review and document your origin classifications now, before a competitor files a complaint, not after Customs agents turn up.
Washington, D.C. — A steep decline in hardwood exports, the growing popularity of man-made wood alternatives and surging fuel prices have been battering the American hardwood lumber industry. In Kentucky, 78 wood industry facilities, mostly sawmills, have closed in the last four years, according to the University of Kentucky Department of Forestry and Natural Resources. The U.S. relationship with China has been a major source of the industry’s problems and a focus of proposals to address them. China once bought about half of U.S. hardwood exports, according to the Hardwood Federation. Then, eight years ago, President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on imports from China, and China retaliated with tariffs on hardwood and other American imports. The reciprocal tariffs were eventually rolled back, but China’s purchases of American hardwood never returned to their previous levels. …advocates are pushing for lawmakers to pass legislation for $12 billion in agriculture relief, including $200 million for the hardwood industry.
The United States and the state of North Carolina have filed a 
Lumber futures fell to around $530 per thousand board feet, remaining near their lowest level in nine months, as rising borrowing costs weigh on housing demand. Growing concerns over inflationary pressures have fueled a broader selloff in global government debt markets, pushing yields to their highest level in nearly two decades. As a result, mortgage rates climbed above 7%, a level last seen in January 2025, further weighing on prospective homebuyers. Although lacking any particular economic significance, economists refer to the threshold as a psychological ceiling. Meanwhile, lumber-intensive single-family housing starts increased 7.6% in August. Providing an offsetting pressure, Ottawa had announced counter-tariffs of 25% on US lumber and 50% on plywood following US tariffs on several lumber-related goods.
Diesel prices have surged to levels that are creating significant cost pressures for logging and log-hauling businesses, which depend on heavy-duty trucks and fuel-intensive operations. As fuel costs climb, the expense of moving raw forest products rises with every mile, tightening margins and straining contractors who already operate on thin financial footing. These increases ripple through the entire supply chain, affecting delivered wood costs and operational predictability. As FRA President Tim O’Hara notes, “Rising diesel prices are creating real challenges for logging and hauling businesses, and mills have been working with contractors to ease some of that burden. It’s a strong reminder that our wood supply chain succeeds when every link supports the other.” The analysis underscores the need for short-term relief measures to stabilize costs and support the sector during this period of volatility. 
Fueled by supply chain interruptions due to war in the Middle East, diesel prices have reached historic highs in 2026, driving up operating costs across many industries and hiking prices for consumer goods. With narrow margins and significant volumes of feedstock to transport, biomass-to-energy facilities and wood pellet producers face a challenging financial equation. In August 2026, average U.S. diesel prices stood at $5.37 per gallon, according to AAA’s fuel price tracker. Supply chain disruptions due to conflict in the Middle East jumped significantly in 2026. U.S. Energy Information Association data has tracked this trend as diesel prices climbed from an average of $3.52 per gallon in January to $4.91 in March. Since then, prices spiked to $5.60 on average in May, rising to a crushing $6.31 national average by mid-September—an all-time record in the United States.
A US diesel export ban could become a self-defeating exercise that would do little to ease high US fuel prices but could worsen supply and economic disruptions around the globe, analysts said. US President Donald reportedly said on Tuesday he backed the idea of a ban. Average US diesel prices have jumped to a record $6.5107 a gallon. Diesel is critical to the global economy because it powers transportation, farm equipment and the machinery used to make and move goods. High fuel prices stoke inflation — already a pain point for Trump and Republicans. …”Given that a surplus of diesel in the US could paradoxically force American refiners to cut supplies of oil products – potentially within a few weeks – a ban would ultimately be self-defeating,” Capital Economics said in a note. Restricting US diesel exports would wreak havoc on fuel markets in the US and abroad.
The number of residential remodelers employed during the second quarter of 2026 was seasonally adjusted at 454,100, accounting for over 49% of the total residential building construction employment . While remodeling employment experienced a loss of 5,100 compared to the first quarter of 2026 and fell 1.0% year-over-year, it has grown over 19% compared to its level prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. …The average hourly earnings in nominal terms (i.e., not adjusted for inflation) for residential remodelers during the second quarter of 2026 was $37.91, up $0.32 or 0.8% compared to the previous quarter. …NAHB Economics has recently created the NAHB Remodeling Input Price Index (RIPI) which is a fixed-weight composite that measures monthly price changes among nonlabor inputs associated with residential improvements and routine residential maintenance & repair. As of the second quarter of 2026, the NAHB RIPI shows that input costs for remodelers rose 6.6% on a year-on-year basis, up from the 3.9% increase in the previous quarter.
Developing formaldehyde-free and high-performance wood adhesives is imperative for sustainable wood utilization. To overcome performance trade-offs in lignin adhesives, we developed a formaldehyde-free aqueous adhesive formulation via reactive cysteine-functionalized lignin, achieving high performance with an unprecedentedly low lignin loading (20 wt %), which is sprayable and injectable and exhibits excellent fluidity. It undergoes self-curing via forming amide bond, achieving robust bonding performance under simple hot-pressing conditions. The solvent-free lignin adhesive for plywood outperforms commercial resins, demonstrating exceptional dry strength (4.0 MPa), high wet-strength retention (83.7%), and superior durability against extreme temperatures (−196° to 190°C), humid heat aging, and solvents. …This work establishes an environmentally friendly and scalable strategy for constructing full bio-based adhesives with exceptional processability and durability, providing a paradigm for lignin valorization within lignin-first biorefinery frameworks.
The bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act — the first major overhaul of housing legislation in more than 30 years — is good news. But the policy, which aims to accelerate housing production across the country, also sets in motion surging demand for one of the oldest and most consequential building materials on Earth: wood. …As cities grapple with the need to increase housing production and decarbonize the built environment, they must take seriously the ecological impact of these material demands. …Since the 1990s, many North American timber operations have received certifications from forestry-standard groups, signaling to eco-conscious developers, architects, and investors that their wood products were responsibly produced. The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and the Sustainable Forestry Initiative (SFI) cover the majority of operations in North America. …But SFI policies around clearing primary forests are vague, while the FSC Mix label allows a product to include a majority of wood from non-certified logging operations. 
HDI Risk Consulting has published a new climate risk assessment of Canada’s Boreal Forest using its modelling platform, mapping how heat stress, drought, wildfire, water scarcity and permafrost thaw interact across a region spanning Canada, Alaska and the northern US. The analysis is part of HRC’s Iconic Landmarks series, applying spatial climate data to identify where physical risk concentrates and how it cascades into business interruption for the forestry, mining, energy and transport sectors that depend on the region. “Climate risk moves through interconnected systems. The Boreal Forest is a clear example of that interaction,” said Wiebke Cundill, HRC’s team lead for natural hazards and climate risk analysis. …Given how much Canadian lumber, energy and minerals feed directly into US manufacturing and construction, HRC’s point, that “a wildfire in Canada can quickly become a US business problem,” is grounded in real, measurable trade data rather than a general climate-adjacency claim.
The European Union has updated its regulation on deforestation-free products (EUDR), which is intended to ensure that products placed on or exported from the EU market do not contribute to deforestation or forest degradation. …The EU amended the regulation in December 2024 and December 2025, introducing simplification measures intended to reduce administrative costs and compliance burdens for affected companies. The EUDR will begin applying to large and medium operators on December 30. Micro and small operators will be subject to the regulation beginning June 30, 2027, while micro and small operators already covered by the EU Timber Regulation will have a December 30 compliance date. The EUDR replaces the EU Timber Regulation and is part of the European Commission’s broader effort to reduce the EU’s contribution to global deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, and biodiversity loss. …An 
The roadless rule has flaws. Repealing it entirely could create new ones. …Would more roads help or hurt places such as Mill City? A Trump administration proposal would repeal what’s called the “roadless rule,” which prohibits road building and many types of forest management on 45 million acres of national forest. The regulation could be repealed as soon as next year. Supporters of the administration’s plan argue that these areas should be actively managed to reduce wildfire risks, while many conservationists worry that new roads would hurt forests that are home to many vulnerable wildlife species. The forests also provide drinking water and other environmental benefits. Public comment is open through Oct. 6. …However you feel about the rule, the Forest Service currently lacks the capacity to maintain roads and conduct wildfire mitigation and forest restoration projects at the scale needed. [to access the full story a Washington Post subscription is required]
The U.S. Endowment for Forestry and Communities (the Endowment) today announced $500,000 in awards to CTrees and Spatial Informatics Group (SIG) through its Technology Solutions to Improve Forest Health and Forest Management initiative. CTrees will receive $300,000 to develop Forest Asset Intelligence: The Wood Triangle, while Spatial Informatics Group will receive $200,000 to develop and deploy the Planscape Bioeconomy Module. The initiative supports practical technology solutions that can improve forest health outcomes, strengthen wood markets, support forest management decision-making and increase operational effectiveness. Projects were also evaluated for their potential to be applied more broadly across regions, ownership types and markets.
A California group said in an Instagram post that it had located the largest redwood tree on Earth following a two-year search. While celebrating the remarkable tree, the post also provides a reminder that awe-inspiring forests are not guaranteed to last, especially as old-growth habitat continues to disappear. In its post, Sacramento Food Forest described an old-growth coastal redwood as having a “base width of 116 feet,” and said it is “over 1,500 years old and 310 feet tall.” It also claimed the tree is wider at the base than “the largest tree in the world, a giant sequoia named General Sherman.” While these precise claims aren’t fully verified, the post included a video showing the tree’s remarkable size. Sacramento Food Forest said larger redwoods once occupied a 2 million-acre coastal band before widespread logging drastically shrank that area.
For harvesting to be profitable on the scale necessary, we need a competitive market for logs, and our forest products industry was decimated with the earlier cessation of harvesting on federal lands. Today, 25% of our lumber supply, worth about $19.7 billion, is imported from Canada. While we ignored our federal forests, the Canadians have been exhausting their easier pickings. With only difficult sites left, they are cutting back, with more cutbacks planned in the future. In the last decade, lumber production there has decreased by 55%. This is an opportunity that we need to capitalize on. By reestablishing a modest forest products industry, we could create a market for the material we need to thin and harvest. Were we to replace the Canadian lumber with domestically produced lumber, the downstream financial stimulus could add an additional $39.4 billion to our GDP. …Let’s consider some of the possible end products for the thinned and harvested timber.
Officially known as “inventoried roadless areas,” roadless areas are protected under a federal rule enacted 25 years ago that generally prohibits logging and road-building. In Montana they cover about one-third of the state’s 17 million acres of public land administered by the U.S. Forest Service. …The original intent of the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule, in part, was to curb the spread of roads and development into the agency’s wildest landscapes. It was also a recognition that the Forest Service’s sprawling road network — today comprising 368,000 miles — was already beyond its capacity to maintain. …President Donald Trump’s administration announced last summer it would move to rescind that roadless rule, effectively returning those lands to the land-use designations established by each individual national forest. Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which oversees the Forest Service, released a 
PORTLAND — Sustainable Northwest (
The recent Public Forum letter criticizing the Fix Our Forests Act (FOFA) raises legitimate concerns about protecting forests and addressing climate change. But portraying the bipartisan legislation primarily as an effort to expedite logging misses much of what the bill is intended to accomplish. Climate change is making wildfires more dangerous. …We need to address both problems. Recent research provides a striking example. Scientists examined 164 forest plots burned during California’s massive 2021 Dixie Fire. In untreated forests, there was a 58% probability that every tree in a plot would be killed. Thinning alone lowered that risk to 48%. But where thinning had been followed by prescribed fire, the probability of complete tree mortality fell to just 4%. That distinction matters. Responsible forest management is not simply another name for logging. The research suggests that thinning alone provides limited protection unless surface fuels are also addressed. Prescribed fire was a critical part of the treatment.
In this months newsletter, you’ll find these stories and more:
NORTH CAROLINA — A few weeks ago, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the draft environmental impact statement for its plan to open the remaining pristine roadless areas of our national forests to mining, logging and road building. Pushed by anti-public lands corporate and industry interests, this raid on the lands that belong to all Americans raises the alarm about the ability to pass an irreplaceable resource down to future generations. …The release of the draft environmental impact statement opened a 30-day public comment period with a now-past deadline of midnight Sept. 21 – less than half the traditional 60- to 90-day comment period traditionally provided for proposed actions of this magnitude. Conservation organizations and others are formally requesting an extension, but past behavior shows the current administration is not interested in what you or I think. That’s why it is vital to raise your voice in support of the Roadless Rule before Oct. 6.
LOUISIANA — Governor Jeff Landry issued an 
MINNESOTA — At the North Star Logging Expo in Grand Rapids, Minn., I got a quick lesson in operating heavy equipment and a more sobering one about the pressures facing the people who make their living with it. Loggers are struggling with something out of their control: the price of diesel fuel. That matters to the whole state because the timber industry doesn’t just cut trees. It’s a key steward of rural Minnesota’s economy and environmental health. If you spent any time worrying about wildfire smoke, climate change or jobs in the past year, you’re invested in figuring this out. …Brady Hasbargen, a fourth-generation logger from Birchdale, Minn., along the Canadian border, said he uses about 100,000 gallons of diesel every year. Last year, he spent about $300,000 on fuel. With diesel now priced above $6 per gallon, that cost will double and could go even higher. That’s well beyond his profit margin. 
The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has completed aerial seeding via helicopter to disperse jack pine, white pine, tamarack and black spruce seeds on 
Vermont utility regulators are temporarily softening environmental rules at Vermont’s two wood-burning power plants to help stabilize the logging industry. State officials say the $2.3 billion wood products industry is in a perilous situation after one of the region’s largest paper mills announced in July it will no longer purchase local wood scraps to make its paper. The rule change, announced earlier this month, will allow McNeil Generating Station in Burlington and Ryegate Power Station in the Northeast Kingdom to buy wood that had been destined for that paper mill, even if it comes from timber harvests that have not been inspected by fish and wildlife officials for impacts to wetlands and habitat for endangered species. The Finch Paper Mill in Glens Falls, New York, used to buy some 2,000 tons of “pulpwood” scraps from Vermont loggers and mills each week before its July announcement.
Taking the stage at Climate Week in New York City, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced his authorization to move forward with linking Washington into its carbon market that’s shared with Quebec, Canada, the next-to-last step in California’s process to complete the merger. On the same day, Washington state officials completed the rulemaking process to allow the linkage. California and Quebec will still need to complete regulatory changes, the final step, before merging can occur. In June, the three jurisdictions signed a linkage agreement to fully join operations in 2027. Washington hopes that joining the older and well-established carbon market will stabilize prices for businesses, which have swung wildly in recent years on the state’s 5-year-old market. …For more than a decade, California’s carbon market has sought to cut climate pollution by setting a cap on greenhouse gas emissions and requiring major polluters to buy allowances to cover their share of emissions. In 2014, its market linked with Quebec. 
The wildfires that have raged across Oregon and Washington this year burned millions of acres. But beyond the immediate destruction, the fires have destroyed something less visible: tens of millions of dollars in California carbon credits, paid for by businesses and consumers under the state’s climate mandates. The fires have scorched tens of thousands of acres enrolled in forest-carbon projects under California’s cap-and-trade program. The system allows companies to meet part of the state’s climate rules by purchasing credits from forest owners… sometimes outside of the state. The destruction is the latest evidence that California’s forest-offset program is ineffective at best, counterproductive at worst. …California has tried to account for wildfire risks by establishing a “buffer pool,” to which each project is required to contribute as a kind of insurance policy. When a fire destroys a forest-carbon project, credits from the pool are canceled to cover the loss. But this approach has proven inadequate. 
