Kevin Mason
As we begin to think about our 2026 forecasts, we (and the market) are challenged by the declining quality of information. Across geographies and sectors, both the quantity and quality of stats have been deteriorating over the past few years, reducing the market’s ability to understand the present context and the future outlook. …At the same time, the need for quality and timely stats is greater than ever. The full impact of seismic changes in global free and fair trade is still unfolding. Commercial pivots take time given pre-tariff inventory builds, contracts, and buyer familiarity and preference. …Producers also lack confidence, impacting the willingness to invest in (or close) assets that drive our supply/demand models. Finally, we worry about investor confidence, as assessing an appropriate risk-weighted return is much more difficult in the current environment.
As a result of the ongoing US government shutdown, much of the regular housing data (starts, permits, etc.) have not been published this month, meaning that we are flying blind, to an extent, in terms of US housing analysis. However, based upon recent solid-wood pricing trends and commentary from industry contacts, there is little to suggest that the US housing market has shown any improvement in the past few weeks. With a seasonally slower period for housing demand and homebuilding activity approaching very quickly, we are unlikely to see any marked improvement in US housing before next spring (at the earliest). …While the US housing market may see some minor tailwinds from improving affordability over the coming months, that boost to housing (and wood products) demand could be more than offset by the negative impacts of the ongoing government shutdown.
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump’s tariff agenda is set to face a major legal hurdle in the US Supreme Court this week but no matter the ruling, it will not spare Canada from all of the president’s devastating duties. The US Supreme Court will hear arguments Wednesday from businesses and states that say Trump’s use of a national security statute — the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 — to hit nearly every nation with tariffs is illegal. The hearing will combine two cases: one pushing back on what are usually referred to as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the other which also argues against the fentanyl-related duties on Canada, Mexico and China. It will not impact Trump’s expanding use of tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. …Carlo Dade at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, said no matter the outcome of the hearing, Canada will be facing tariffs.
VANCOUVER — Politicians from B.C. and Ottawa will meet in Vancouver today for a forestry summit on how to prop up the industry in the face of American fees and tariffs topping 50 per cent. Federal politicians including Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, along with B.C. Premier David Eby and his forests and jobs ministers, are set to discuss ways to support workers and businesses being hammered by the increased fees. In September, the Americans imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian companies ranging from 26 per cent to more than 47 per cent, and then added another 10 per cent last month, claiming Canada’s industry is a U.S. national security threat. B.C.’s goal for the summit is to push for more federal help for the industry that employs tens of thousands of workers in the province. The softwood lumber dispute has been a friction point for decades.
KINGWOOD, W.Va. — Multiple volunteer fire departments and emergency medical services responded Wednesday night to a fire at Appalachian Wood Pellets that affected multiple buildings. Officials reported the blaze has been contained, and no injuries were reported. Preston County Office of Emergency Management Director Justin Wolfe said initial reports of the blaze at 383 Mill Road were received at 11:33 p.m. Wednesday. …Initial reports noted that crews mounted an attack against the blaze, with additional fire departments being requested for assistance. Based on reports, the fire affected structures outside the main plant, including an open trailer with material, an open roofed storage structure and a belt-to-silo apparatus, and encroached on a maintenance building.
Weyerhaeuser will use $102 million of proceeds from a municipal bond sale to help finance the construction of solid waste disposal facilities at its engineered wood plant in Arkansas. The Resource Recovery Revenue Bonds Series 2025 will be sold by the Arkansas Development Finance Authority, which will then lend the money to the timber and forest products company. …The bonds are special and limited revenue obligations of the issuer. Weyerhaeuser will use the money to help finance a portion of the costs of the acquisition, construction, equipping and installation of solid waste disposal facilities at its TimberStrand plant under construction near the city of Monticello in Drew County. Proceeds will also be used to pay the costs of bond issuance. TimberStrand is a brand name for a type of engineered wood product called laminated strand lumber and is manufactured by Weyerhaeuser. 
Arkansas’ timber industry, like Arkansas’ agriculture industry, is in trouble. The causes of the trouble are various, but one cause stands out for both: the Trump administration’s trade war. In October, Arkansas House Speaker Brian Evans, R-Cabot, joined the speakers of the Alabama, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina houses of representatives urging Congress to move to relieve “an industry in crisis.” “Under current US trade policy, products and shipments from US exporters are becoming stuck en route to their final destination due to immediately imposed tariffs,” the letter said. The state’s forestry sector supports more than 50,000 jobs and contributes about $6.1 billion to Arkansas’ economy, more than 4% of the state’s GDP. “The trade war has impacted our ability to export hardwood logs out of Arkansas,” Matthew Pelkki, at the University of Arkansas at Monticello, said. [to access the full story an Arkansas Business subscription is required]
VANCOUVER, BC — Canfor Corporation reported its third quarter of 2025 results. The Company reported an operating loss of $208 million and a net loss of $172 million. …Canfor’s CEO, Susan Yurkovich, stated: “The ongoing global economic and trade uncertainty, in conjunction with punitive US softwood lumber duties, led to persistently weak market conditions and subdued demand across all of our operating regions during the third quarter of 2025. …For the lumber segment, the operating loss was $182.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to the previous quarter’s operating loss of $229.2 million. …For the 
Lumber futures steadied around $540 per thousand board feet, hovering near seven-week lows, after a sharp selloff driven mainly by softer US construction demand and lingering post-rally inventories. US housing starts and builder activity failed to accelerate, leaving order flow thin and dealer and distributor stocks higher than the summer buying binge implied. Supply has only partially adjusted, with North American mills signaling temporary curtailments, but looming US softwood measures and announced support for Canada’s industry have kept export channels and production incentives intact, preventing a rapid physical tightening. Traders are now pricing a likely mix of modest Q4 production cuts, seasonal pre-winter restocking and the risk of trade-related disruptions.
An extended slowdown in sales of cardboard boxes is intensifying concern that this holiday season will be a disappointing one for US retailers. US corrugated box shipments fell to the lowest third-quarter reading since 2015, maintaining the more measured pace seen in the previous quarter, according to the Fibre Box Association. Packaging companies in recent weeks have warned that economic uncertainty is weighing on retailers and consumers. …This time of year is crucial for the box industry, with shipments typically peaking in October as retailers prepare for the holidays. Box plants said orders were flat or below normal in October, while US consumer sentiment fell to a five-month low and manufacturing activity dropped for an eighth straight month. …US box industry shipments are poised to drop 1% to 1.5% this year versus 2024,” IP’s Andy Silvernail said last week. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]
Kimberly-Clark is buying Tylenol maker Kenvue in a cash and stock deal worth about $48.7 billion, creating a massive consumer health goods company. Shareholders of Kimberly-Clark will own about 54% of the combined company. Kenvue shareholders will own about 46%. The combined company will have a large stable of household brands under one roof, putting Kenvue’s Listerine mouthwash and Band-Aid side-by-side with Kimberly-Clark’s Cottonelle toilet paper, Huggies and Kleenex tissues. It will also generate about $32 billion in annual revenue. Kenvue has spent a relatively brief period as an independent company, having been spun off by Johnson & Johnson two years ago. The deal announced Monday is among the largest corporate takeovers of the year. …The deal is expected to close in the second half of next year. It still needs approval from shareholders of both both companies. …Shares of Kimberly-Clark slipped more than 15% before the market open, while Kenvue’s stock jumped more than 20%.
Chinese tissue paper made from bamboo has emerged as a trendy choice for eco-friendly shoppers. However, new research suggests these bamboo paper products may not offer significant climate benefits over tissue produced in the United States and, in some cases, may be more detrimental to the environment. North Carolina State University researchers compared the carbon footprint of bamboo tissue paper manufactured in China with that of conventional tissue paper manufactured in the U.S. and Canada. They found that… the fossil fuel-heavy power grid in China led to significant increases in emissions compared with cleaner fuel sources used in North America. “As far as emissions go, the technology used to create hygiene tissue paper is far more important than the type of fiber it’s made from,” said Naycari Forfora, lead author of the study…. “Because the Chinese power grid is so reliant on coal for power, emissions … are higher than the wood-based option.”
BOISI, Idaho — The Trump Administration’s decision earlier this year to do away with the 2001 Roadless Area Conseravtion Rule on national forest lands sent shockwaves through environmental and outdoor recreation communities. According to environmentalists and an Idaho public official who has been involved in roadless rule politics since the issue’s inception, the move could transport stakeholders in the Pacific Northwest back to the rancor and political divisions of the timber war years. …“The national rule itself put the whole timber wars to bed. It really did,” said James Caswell, former director of the Bureau of Land Management. …The rule led to conditions in which environmentalists became less combative about forest management, according to Caswell. Instead, enviros became more willing to work with timber industry and Forest Service officials. …The decision puts the forest objectives of fishermen, hunters, ATVers, bird watchers and others on the back burner.
PORTLAND, Oregon — The question of whether two logging companies conspired to monopolize markets in an eastern Oregon forest came before a three-judge panel of the Ninth Circuit on Wednesday as a coalition urged the court to revive its antitrust challenge. US Circuit Judge Milan Smith noted the case was unlike other antitrust suits. …In 2013, the U.S. Forest Service granted the logging company Iron Triangle a 10-year stewardship contract for the Malheur National Forest, as well as associated logging rights. A group of landowners, loggers and an eastern Oregon lumber sawmill — known collectively as the Malheur Forest Coalition — sued Iron Triangle in 2022, arguing that the company exploited control of the contract and should be blocked from competing for harvest rights in U.S. Forest Service public auctions. The lower court denied the request, prompting a new complaint adding the Malheur Lumber Company as a defendant.
A federal judge has halted a logging project in the Kootenai National Forest, saying the federal government failed to correctly analyze the impacts to grizzly bears. The Knotty Pine Project, a 10-year project that would have authorized 7,465 acres of prescribed burning and 2,593 acres of commercial harvest in the Cabinet-Yaak Mountains, has been in litigation since 2022. The Center for Biological Diversity led a coalition of environmental groups …in suing the U.S. Forest Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, saying it could devastate the small group of grizzly bears that lives in the region due to increased roadwork. U.S. District Court Judge Dana Christensen granted a preliminary junction the following year, but issued his final ruling last week. …“High road densities in low elevation habitats may result in grizzly bear avoidance or displacement from important spring habitat and high mortality risks,” Christensen wrote.
For more than 15 years, Scott Fitzwilliams led … the “crown jewel” of U.S. federal land — 2.2 million acres in Colorado that includes world class ski resorts… and sees a lot of wildfire. So when he was told in February to fire more than a dozen U.S. Forest Service employees from White River National Forest, one of his main concerns was: Will enough people be around to make sure the next big blaze doesn’t get out of control? …Fitzwilliams resigned in protest over the cuts, part of the Trump administration’s efforts to reduce the federal workforce… Eight months later, a new report confirms some of Fitzwilliams’s fears. A data analysis shared with The Washington Post found that as of the end of September, Forest Service work to reduce fire-fueling debris was down nearly 40 percent on this date compared with where it has been on average over the previous four years… [A subscription to the Washington Post is required for full story access]
A yearslong endeavor to change logging and environmental policies for millions of acres of Pacific Northwest forests is getting a restart. The US Forest Service will update the Northwest Forest Plan, a set of policies that broadly dictates where logging can occur on 25 million acres of forests in Oregon, Washington and northwest California. …Environmental groups worry new changes that could be made to this plan under the Trump administration will increase logging in mature and old-growth forests. …The Forest Service published its proposed changes in a draft environmental impact statement in November 2024 and received over 3,400 public comments. Now the Forest Service under the Trump administration wants to issue a new draft. …A Forest Service spokesperson said the agency will publish a new draft amendment next fall, and that the Forest Service will allow people to review the draft and weigh in during a 90-day public comment period.
SEATTLE — …Of Washington’s 22 million forested acres, the Department of Natural Resources manages about 3 million acres of state land. Of those, 545,000 acres are now dead or dying — the equivalent of more than 500,000 football fields. …Washington’s severe drought has weakened trees across the state. Then came powerful storms—including last November’s bomb cyclone and February’s windstorm—that battered already-stressed trees to their breaking point. …As droughts intensify and insects thrive in warming forests, trees are dying of thirst while being eaten alive. It’s a double assault turning once-green mountainsides into graveyards of standing dead timber—impacting both eastern and western Washington. “We’re concerned this trend could continue as our climate continues to warm,” Commissioner Upthegrove said. One solution is to remove dead or dying trees and replant more resilient species like hemlock or cedar. However, according to the DNR, the funding needed to address these issues has vanished.
Durable, renewable and biodegradable, wood is an ideal material. And as we grapple with the aftermath of synthetic materials, such as forever chemicals and microplastics, the humble material growing in our literal backyards is suddenly looking pretty appealing again. But how do you know it wasn’t clearcut from a rainforest? Figuring out logging practices, deforestation policies, impact on wildlife, pesticide use, and impact on indigenous communities “can be really challenging”, said Linda Walker at the World Wildlife Fund. …That’s where certifications come in. A growing number of wood industry certifications are designed to guide consumers. They’re not perfect. Some have rules written by big timber. Almost all of them receive payments from companies seeking certifications. There is no seal that encompasses every issue, but don’t let perfect be the enemy of good – even the most flawed badges have some baseline value.