Robert McKellar
Friday’s Tree Frog interview with political risk expert Robert McKellar drew exceptional interest—and for good reason. Given reader response and the ongoing fallout from Trump’s trade policies, we’re featuring it again for those who missed it. McKellar, who divides his time between Turkey and Canada, brings an international perspective to his analysis of Trump’s second-term trade environment and its implications for Canada’s forest sector. His message is clear: US protectionism is not a passing phase. The current tariff and duty structure reflects a broader nationalist realignment that will persist well beyond the Trump presidency. He notes it is unlikely that the upcoming USMCA review will restore pre-Trump-2 market access, and that while Washington is betting tariffs will attract new foreign investment, the result has instead been greater political risk.
McKellar also examines the recent US–China flare-up, concluding it is unlikely to reignite a full-scale trade war. Within the US, he observes that political momentum currently favours the US Lumber Coalition over homebuilders, but that balance could shift if housing affordability again becomes a political flashpoint. Should the housing crisis deepen, Trump has shown he’s willing to adjust course when broader political pressures outweigh protectionist instincts. For Canadian producers, diversification and value-added strategies remain essential—but slow to materialize. That reality underpins McKellar’s central question: “If that’s true—then what?” His answer calls for a fundamental shift in mindset—challenging the sector to rethink its future and chart a course less dependent on the US market. He concludes that companies should view political-risk awareness as a practical framework—linking foresight, market intelligence, and decision-making into a continuous process of adaptation. The tools already exist within most organizations, he says; the opportunity lies in using them more deliberately as part of everyday business planning.
Industry leaders say they are disappointed with the additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods announced Saturday by US President Trump… over Ontario ad. Jean Simard of the Aluminum Association of Canada said that this announcement is “very unfortunate and uncalled for.” …“I don’t think it’s going to add anything to the situation that the U.S. will be facing moving into the fall season with prices that will be increased by these stacked up tariffs on everything that moves into the U.S.” A $75-million television ad from the Ontario government, featuring remarks by former US President Reagan on tariffs is what prompted Trump to announce he was ending trade discussions with Canada. …“We might see the same phenomenon that unfolded in the course of the months of July and August, where our metal started moving towards Europe instead of the U.S,” Simard said. 
President Trump said that he, personally, wants to attend next month’s Supreme Court hearing on his tariff policies. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments, beginning on November 5th, whether the president can unilaterally impose tariffs under emergency powers and is acting legally in his bypassing of Congress. The case involves the import tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China, over allegations of fentanyl trafficking, as well as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. …Canada is suffering under some of the toughest US tariff actions for some of its largest export sectors — the auto industry, along with steel, aluminum, and Canada’s softwood lumber. …John Weekes, one of the chief Canadian negotiators of the original North American Free Trade Agreement said a lot of Canadians seem to be holding onto hope that Trump’s tariff war will disappear when the USMCA is renegotiated next year. To that, John Weekes says don’t bet on it.
BURNABY, BC — Interfor announced today revised operating plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Due to persistently weak market conditions and ongoing economic uncertainty, Interfor will further temporarily reduce lumber production across its operations in British Columbia, Ontario, the US Pacific Northwest and the US South. These curtailments are expected to reduce lumber production in the fourth quarter of 2025 by approximately 250 million board feet, or 26%, as compared to the second quarter of 2025, which reflected a more normal operating stance. The curtailment volumes are approximately evenly split between Interfor’s Canadian and U.S. operations. …These curtailments are an amendment to Interfor’s previously announced curtailments on September 4, 2025. “Lumber prices in all regions of North America have continued to weaken, from already unsustainably low levels,” said Ian Fillinger, Interfor’s CEO. …While necessary, we fully recognize the impact these actions will have on our employees, contractors, suppliers and communities.”
Luke Lindberg, U.S. under secretary of agriculture for trade and foreign agricultural affairs with the USDA, in conjunction with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, has announced a three-point plan to increase exports, advance rural prosperity, and chip away at the trade deficit. The three-point plan includes:
PORT OF LONGVIEW, Washington — If Northwest Advanced Bio-Fuels has its way, the Port of Longview may soon have a $2.4 billion sustainable aviation fuel plant. But the mega-project to turn timber waste into jet fuel has faced a slew of challenges on its way to landing at the giant riverfront Barlow Point site, a deal that’s still not inked after nearly four years. The people behind Northwest Advanced Bio-Fuels say the project is mere weeks away from finding the financing needed to lock in a site and build the plant — the first of a handful of additional facilities around the region to fulfill Delta Airlines’ immense need for sustainable aviation fuel. To port officials, however, the project is one of about 20 that have considered its flagship Barlow Point site, any one of which could put money down today and start the long process of realizing a mega-project there tomorrow. 
…Arkansas’ forestry industry is feeling the weight of a slowing housing market, a declining demand for many of its products and trade disputes and regulations that have closed off foreign markets. In recent years, several mills in Arkansas have closed — evidence of economic struggles for the industry. In September, Domtar’s sawmill in Glenwood announced a temporary shut down, affecting 150 workers. Shields Wood Products also shut down. Arkansas House Speaker Brian Evans signed on to a letter … calling on Congress to step in and help expand the export market for their states’ foresters. …the Arkansas Economic Development Commission said the state exported $6.45 billion in forestry products in 2023, the largest destinations being Canada, Mexico and Japan. The letter from the state house speakers to Congress makes specific mention of the Chinese market, which cut off the import of logs from the U.S. in March as part of retaliation for American tariffs, Reuters reported. [Access to the full story may require a subscription to the Gazette]
LITTLE ROCK — Arkansas’ leading industry, agriculture, is facing a crisis. But it’s not just row-crop farmers that are struggling — the forestry industry is as well. The market for timber has become so bad that mills are closing and loggers are getting out of the business. “This is devastating to the timber industry in South Arkansas. Eight of the last 11 weeks, we have experienced mill closures in Arkansas, some permanent, some temporary,” said John Dawson, president of Arkansas Pulpwood Co. in Camden. “We’re seeing loggers drop out. Lifelong families that are two, three, four generations of loggers are getting out of the business. Banks in South Arkansas are moving away from loaning money to loggers,” Dawson said. As you’d expect, demand for paper has plummeted. …But demand for lumber is down too. …There’s simply too much supply for the diminishing demand.
TILLEDA, Wis. – A groundbreaking moment in Tilleda, with the introduction of the first chip mill in the United States purchased by a logger co-op, marking the start of a new chapter for the industry. “Because it’s the first of its kind in the country there were a lot of hoops that we had to go through first to figure out what it all looked like legally and logistically,” said Dennis Schoeneck, president of Timber Professionals Cooperation Enterprises. Founded five years ago, Timber Professionals Cooperation Enterprises aims to sustain and grow the timber industry. The co-op is made up of loggers and truckers, and it was those groups who helped raise the $418,000 that went towards the purchase of the mill. They don’t want to stop here, the co-op has big plans for the future.
Lumber futures tumbled toward $590 per thousand board feet, a near one-month low, as weakening US housing activity and pre-tariff front-loading left wholesalers awash with stock while stacked US duties on Canadian imports and trade uncertainty pushed prices lower. US homebuilding has slowed, with housing starts falling 8.5% in August to a 1.307 million annualized pace and building permits drifting lower. Many US buyers front-loaded inventories ahead of expected import tariffs earlier this autumn, leaving distributors to work down excess stock before fresh order flow returns. On the supply side, a 10% Section-232 tariff added in mid-October atop roughly 35% in existing duties lifted border costs above 45% for many Canadian shipments, forcing sellers to find new markets or accept lower domestic prices. Producers like Interfor have trimmed output since mid-October, but the cuts are too recent to significantly reduce inventories or regional log supply.
VANCOUVER, BC —
Lumber futures fell below $610 per thousand board feet, their lowest level since October 8 and down 12% from a three-year high in early August, as a slowing US housing market outweighed potential supply curbs from tariffs. August building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.33 million, the lowest since May 2020, while housing starts fell 8.5%, marking the fourth-lowest reading in over five years. Earlier this month, the US imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian lumber, with the Trump administration stating it aims to expand domestic timber harvesting and reduce reliance on foreign lumber. Looking ahead, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could stimulate construction and home buying and encourage homeowners to borrow for repairs and renovations, the largest driver of lumber demand. However, signs of a slowing labor market and rising inflation suggest demand may remain subdued.
Section 232 tariffs were once seen as a fortress for US metals. Yet, that fortress now casts a much longer shadow. Companies far removed from the steel and aluminum sector could soon find themselves ensnared in tariffs they never imagined, thanks to the inclusion process for “derivative” products. The Trump Administration has steadily expanded Section 232 authority well beyond their original steel and aluminum targets, to copper, automobiles, trucks, lumber, and even wooden cabinets. These tariffs, which range from 10% (for lumber) to 50% (for steel and aluminum), are layered on top of normal import duties. At first glance, these measures appeared to strike only those industries handling raw materials. But in 2025 the Administration sought to close what it saw as a loophole: downstream products containing tariffed metals that could enter duty-free. As a result, section 232 tariffs were imposed on the raw material and a finite list of derivative products.
Ikea is increasing the amount of products it makes in the US as the world’s largest home furnishings retailer comes under pressure from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on furniture and kitchen cabinets. The flat-pack retailer, which made revenues of $5.5bn in the US last year, currently produces only about 15% of products that it sells in the US domestically. That compares with 75% local production in Europe and 80% in Asia. “We want to continue to expand in the US and Canada — how do we optimise a good supply set-up where we secure the right access to materials, to components, to production? That’s very long-term work that we’re doing,” Jon Abrahamsson Ring, chief executive of Inter Ikea. Trump imposed tariffs of between 10% and 50% on imports of foreign furniture and wood products. Ikea, which is responsible for about 1% of total industrial production, is set to take a significant hit. 
With new tariffs taking effect on furniture and lumber, an analysis released by Goldman Sachs finds American consumers are paying for more than half of the cost of the levies imposed by President Donald Trump. In a research note to its clients, the global investment and banking giant said U.S. consumers will absorb 55% of tariff costs by the end of this year. American businesses would pay 22% of the costs, foreign exporters would absorb 18% and 5% would be evaded, according to the Goldman Sachs analysis. Consumers could end up paying 70% of the cost by the end of next year, the report said. “At the moment, however, US businesses are likely bearing a larger share of the costs because some tariffs have just gone into effect and it takes time to raise prices on consumers and negotiate lower import prices with foreign suppliers,” the analysis adds. 
NASHVILLE, Tenn.– LP Building Solutions (LP) announced the continuation of its partnership with the [US based] Forest Workforce Training Institute’s ForestryWorks® program and a new collaboration with the [British Columbia, Canada] First Nations Forestry Council. Both initiatives aim to develop the next generation of forestry professionals and advance sustainable forest management across North America. …“Programs like ForestryWorks and First Nations Forestry Council help ensure forests remain healthy and productive while supporting the future of sustainable forestry,” said LP Chair and CEO Brad Southern. “By investing in tomorrow’s workforce, we’re also investing in the continued success of renewable, high-performance building solutions.” …“We’re pleased to welcome LP Building Solutions as a program partner in advancing Indigenous participation in forestry through the Indigenous Forestry Scholarship Program,” said BC First Nations Forestry Council CEO Lennard (Suxʷsxʷwels) Joe. 
Ecological stoichiometry can help clarify how symbionts and other co-occurring organisms mediate nutrient deficiencies for hosts. We used ecological stoichiometry (comparisons of elemental compositions in food vs consumer) to investigate whether obligate mutualist fungi (Grosmannia clavigera, Ophiostoma montium) of the tree-killing bark beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae (mountain pine beetle) and the invasive tree pathogenic fungus, Cronartium ribicola (causal agent of the disease white pine blister rust) influenced availability of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus to the beetle in Pinus albicaulis (whitebark pine), as well as how these elements varied among three populations of the tree. 
The bipartisan Fix Our Forests Act passed out of the Senate Agriculture Committee on Tuesday morning, marking the first advancement of the bill since it previously stalled in committees under both the Biden and the previous Trump administration. The Act would create an interagency Fireshed Center focused on wildfire prediction and tracking, establish fireshed management areas in forests with high wildfire risks, and expedite the review of wildfire-related forest management projects under the National Environmental Policy Act. The act has gained support from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, along with numerous environmental and wildfire-focused organizations. Critics of the Act claim it would further open up 
Washington’s lands commissioner, Dave Upthegrove, is on a mission to secure $60 million of additional wildfire funding in next year’s legislative session, despite a tightening budget outlook. On Monday, he and a leading Democratic House lawmaker indicated that they want to tap revenue from the state’s cap-and-trade program for at least some of that money. The maneuver would mean turning to a steady-flowing stream of cash at a time when the state’s operating budget is squeezed. “Climate Commitment Act dollars are going to be on the table,” said state Rep. Larry Springer, D-Kirkland, who is deputy House majority leader. Lawmakers this year already started dedicating some of the climate dollars to the wildfire programs in question. At issue is funding provided under a 2021 law known as House Bill 1168, which passed with broad bipartisan support. With that legislation, lawmakers committed to direct $500 million over eight years to wildfire programs.
A Montana logging project in grizzly habitat in the Kootenai National Forest will remain on hold until federal officials reassess how road use — particularly illegal road use — impacts the bears, a federal judge ruled on Monday. “This court has repeatedly held that it is arbitrary and capricious to not include illegal motorized use that it knows to occur into calculations, regardless of whether the use is chronic and site specific,” U.S. District Judge Dana Christensen wrote in the 40-page opinion. The Center for Biological Diversity led environmental groups in suing the U.S. Forest Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 2022, seeking to block the Knotty Pine Project, and Christensen granted the environmentalists’ motion for a preliminary injunction the following year. …Christensen found the Forest Service violated the National Environmental Policy Act by failing to take a hard look at the impact of unauthorized road use on grizzly bears.
SOUTH BEND, Washington — Pacific County Commissioners Jerry Doyle, Lisa Olsen and David Tobin sent a scathing letter on Oct. 20 to the Washington Forest Practices Board (FPB) regarding a proposed increase in timber-harvest buffer zones along streams. Rural counties and forestry groups are mounting a vigorous push against bigger setbacks away from small non-salmon-bearing streams, arguing that over the course of time the loss of timber acreage will add up to billions in lost local economic activity and millions less taxes that currently support government services. Washington state established the Forest Practices Act and the FPB in 1974. It is tasked with establishing laws to “protect salmon, clean water, and the working forest economy.”
Fall is the busy season for forestry work, like fuels reduction. Summer fire restrictions have ended, and winter snow has not yet arrived. But Armando Lopez, owner of DL Reforestation in Jackson County, said the federal government shutdown has put his work on hold. Inspectors can’t visit project areas, and he’s waiting on hundreds of thousands of dollars in payments. Every day, he eagerly checks whether the government has reopened. …Lopez employs around 40 workers, most of them on temporary H-2B visas. If the shutdown doesn’t end next week, Lopez said, he won’t be able to pay them. …The Oregon Department of Forestry said in a statement that payment delays for contractors like Lopez are varied, depending on the federal agency and funding source. …But U.S. Forest Service, state, private and tribal forestry awards are continuing.
EUGENE, Oregon — With the Trump administration poised to rewrite forest management policy, groups are on guard for changes to climate and lumber harvesting sections. Travis Joseph has a message for environmental groups worried that the Pacific Northwest’s oldest trees are about to fall to loggers: Timber companies don’t really want to cut them down. Joseph, who heads a timber industry group and is a former aide to ex-Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon, made that proclamation. …“I love these trees, too,” said Joseph, CEO of the American Forest Resource Council (AFRC). “But they’re at risk. Let’s save them. Let’s come in here and protect them.” Joseph’s group says the threat to big trees in western Oregon — these giants were 5 or 6 feet across at the trunk — isn’t logging. It’s wildfire that’s becoming a bigger menace as climate change makes summers hotter and reduces the winter snowpack. [to access the full story a subscription is required]
Oregon’s 2025 fire season officially wrapped up Friday with significantly fewer acres burned — and at a lower cost to the state — than in previous years. But fires this year got much closer to communities, burning 200 homes and structures. …And humans caused most of this year’s fires. Oregon experienced more than 1,100 fires from early June to mid-October. They burned roughly 350,000 acres, far less than the 1.9 million acres that burned in 2024. Fires this year also cost the state less to fight. …The U.S. Forest Service has had a target for nearly a century of keeping at least 90% of wildfires from growing larger than 10 acres. But it has come under scrutiny by some indigenous wildfire and ecology experts and scientists, as well as Forest Service scientists. They argue that some wildfires must be allowed to burn more acres to help regenerate plants that support animal habitats, reduce pest infestation and invasive species and keep ecosystems healthy.
The Fix Our Forests Act passed out of a Senate committee Tuesday, and now heads to a full vote. Some environmental groups are warning that a federal bill intended to prevent major wildfires could effectively increase logging, cattle grazing and mining on federal lands — which make up half of Oregon’s land base. The bipartisan Fix Our Forests Act passed out of the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee on Tuesday and now heads to the Senate floor for a final vote. It could overhaul how the nation prepares its land for wildfires, while also scaling back environmental oversight of land management projects. The bill has conservationists divided. On one side, some advocates say it would bring long-needed changes by fast-tracking prescribed fires. …On the other side, environmental groups say the bill significantly weakens environmental protections and public oversight.
CLANCY, Montana — Healthy forests depend on a strong forest products industry. Sawmills help support thousands of Montana jobs, reduce wildfire risks, and provide a renewable resource. Despite recent mill closures in Missoula and Seeley Lake, Marks Lumber in Clancy continues to carry on. …Both Roseburg Forest Products in Missoula and Pyramid Mountain Lumber in Seeley Lake closed last year. Marks Lumber has been open for 36 years, and they have adapted to industry changes before. “ …In light of the recent closures, they have made some changes, including shifting to more board production (processed wood) rather than the raw tree, which is more expensive to manufacture, and slowing down on how much logging they do. Marks Lumber also had to change where their sawdust and chips go. Roseburg used to buy that material, but now they send them to Weyerhaeuser Forest Products in Columbia Falls.
Ash trees are an important part of the basket weaving tradition, which has long played a significant cultural, spiritual and practical role in the lives of tribal citizens across the country, including John Daigle, a citizen member of the Penobscot Nation in Maine. But the emergence of the emerald ash borer beetle …has posed challenges for Indigenous basket makers. A grant awarded to Daigle, a professor of forest recreation management at the University of Maine, could help preserve and advance the craft. It’s part of the Indigenous Forest Knowledge Fund, a program run by the Northeastern States Research Cooperative to support projects related to tribal homelands or ancestral territories of the Northern Forest region… Daigle’s project was one of three winners this year. His team will also develop technologies to support the processing and storage of ash splints before widespread ash mortality, which could help sustain basket-making supplies.
…An ice storm 
As the planet heats up, we need to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. …‘nature-based climate solutions’ are human interventions that utilize natural processes to draw down carbon from the atmosphere. According to William Anderegg, director of the Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy at the University of Utah, planting forests is an especially promising option. “The central opportunity here is that we can leverage nature,” Anderegg says, “and forests globally have pretty large potential to help with climate change mitigation.” [However], Anderegg says …there are many problems with the programs that seek to plant forests as a climate solution. 
PASCAGOULA, Mississippi — A fire is burning inside one of the wood pellet domes at the Port of Pascagoula. The fire started Monday afternoon inside one of the two Enviva domes at the port. Jackson County Emergency Management Director Earl Etheridge said there is no danger of explosion. Jackson County firefighters are on scene to assist Enviva and port crews. The fire started Monday afternoon inside one of the two Enviva domes at the port. …Etheridge says that Enviva is injecting the dome with pressurized nitrogen to suppress the fire. The fire is contained to the dome. Crews are working to offload the 20,000 metric tons of wood pellets. 
Ten lawsuits have been filed against Drax after diagnoses of asthma allegedly linked to its wood pellet fuel, it has been revealed. Current and former workers at the UK’s largest power station claim they have not been adequately protected against sustained exposure to wood dust, which can cause serious health problems including asthma, dermatitis and nasal cancer. Six compensation claims were settled out of court and four have trial dates in 2026, an investigation by Land and Climate Review found. A class action lawsuit was also filed against the company this month over health concerns in the US, representing 700 people who live near one of Drax’s wood pellet mills in Mississippi. The company is also being investigated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority over “historical statements” made about its wood pellet fuel. 
