Kelly McCloskey
We reached out to Robert McKellar at Harmattan Risk in August 2024 for comment on the increasing pace of change in the forest sector, shaped by political forces and government intervention. Robert’s op-ed offered a thoughtful analysis of how inherent political risks—especially those linked to Canada–US trade friction—could rapidly unsettle an industry long reliant on stability. At the time, Trump’s potential political comeback was still largely speculative. Since that op-ed, the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Trump’s re-emergence is no longer a remote possibility but a concrete reality that has intensified uncertainty across the sector. With these developments in mind, we reconnected with Robert to update his analysis and explore how the risks he foresaw have become even more pronounced. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]
WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump said again Wednesday he plans to hit Canada and Mexico with devastating duties — but a White House official confirmed on background that the tariff plans could change through negotiations. …He signed an executive order to implement “reciprocal tariffs” by raising U.S. duties to match the tax rates that other countries charge on imports starting April 2. He ordered 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States on March 12. Trump also floated the idea of imposing tariffs on automobiles and forest products in April. …Trump himself seems to be having a hard time keeping track of his massive tariff agenda. …Many experts say Trump’s actions are intended to shake up Canada and Mexico ahead of a review of the continental trade pact. The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement was negotiated during the first Trump administration to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. 
Yesterday, we featured an op-ed by political risk management expert Robert McKellar on how Donald Trump’s re-election is changing the political risk landscape for the Canadian forest sector. While U.S. trade disputes are not new, the unpredictability of Trump’s approach to trade policy creates new challenges that Canadian exporters must assess and manage. McKellar presents a structured way to evaluate these risks using the devil’s advocacy approach, a method that considers both worst- and best-case scenarios to develop a balanced assessment. Trump has proposed three different types of tariffs—bi-national, product-specific, and reciprocal—which, if applied together, could significantly impact the sector. By examining multiple possibilities, McKellar provides companies with a way to better prepare for potential disruptions rather than reacting in crisis mode. And as today’s 
The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated the 
The Trump administration has opened a broad new front in its global trade conflict, proposing to affix levies reaching $1.5 million on Chinese-made ships arriving at American ports. Such fees would apply even on vessels made elsewhere — an approach that risks increasing costs on raw materials to factory goods. …It is engineered to discourage reliance on Chinese vessels in supplying Americans with products, while aiming to spur the revival of a domestic shipbuilding industry after a half-century of veritable dormancy. …The proposal would isolate China while diminishing American reliance on its industry. …The plan was the result of an investigation, started during the Biden administration, into the dominance of the Chinese shipping industry, in response to a petition filed by labor unions. Almost one-fifth of container vessels arriving at American ports are made in China. [to access the full story a NY Times subscription is required]
BOZEMAN, Mont. – The Trump administration’s tariffs are stirring discussions in Montana, with concerns about their impact on local economies. At Montana State University, Dr. Nicole Karwowski, an assistant professor of economics … explains that while tariffs can benefit certain business and factory owners, as well as shareholders of domestic firms, the broader impact tends to be negative. She highlights that these beneficiaries gain from the increased costs international companies face when competing in the U.S. market. The local economy in Bozeman is particularly affected, Karwowski says, due to the rising cost of construction materials. “We import a lot of our timber from Canada. And housing prices are already skyrocketing in places like Bozeman especially. So the different types of construction materials and raw materials are increasing in cost because of these tariffs. Then we’re going to see it harder to be building more in places like Bozeman,” she said.
The Southern Forest Products Association believes strong partnerships are essential for sustaining growth and success. That starts with our most valuable partnership — our members. Their commitment is the driving force behind our success. The 2024 SFPA Value Report recaps the association’s: International market development and success in driving demand for Southern Pine lumber exports; A new, consolidated website; Digital promotion efforts; Membership growth; and Industry collaboration.
Home Depot’s CFO said people are “moving on” from today’s high mortgage rates and have started investing more in their homes. The home improvement company reported strong fourth-quarter results, although CEO Ted Decker said consumers are still reluctant to make larger investments like a kitchen remodel. Experts say people may start to view today’s mortgage rates as normal, especially when compared to historic rates. …“Housing is still frozen by mortgage rates,” Richard McPhail, said. Yet McPhail said Home Depot, which reported strong Q4 results Tuesday, has seen sales growth in nearly 80% of its U.S. geographic regions. …For Q4, 2024, Home Depot saw a 14.1% year-over-year increase in sales, which “exceeded our expectations,” Ted Decker CEO, said. …“We saw greater engagement in home improvement spend, despite ongoing pressure on large remodeling projects,” Decker said
After a century of wildfire suppression across the West, it’s no secret that the approach to forest management has needed to change. And change is, and has been, underway. But newly proposed changes, now in the form of legislation that would let fuel mitigation projects, including logging, in high-risk zones like the forest surrounding Durango skirt the public input process have some environmental groups up in arms. The
RAPID CITY, S.D. – South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden says during one of his several meetings with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins last week, he and Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon had an extensive conversation about the Black Hills and timber contracts. “Just what’s at stake for the Black Hills as far as wildland fires, dangers, the insect infestations and just our timber industry and the future of that in general,” said Rhoden. Rhoden continued on saying he was “very encouraged by the conversation we had with her, that we’re going to take steps to rectify that.” Rhoden says the current amount of timber harvested is far below what is allowed. “Not even close, and under the Biden administration we were just banging our heads against the wall. We would provide the facts and the data, and they were ignored,” the governor explained. 
For over a century, the American environmental movement has been animated by an intuitive and simple idea: Protecting trees means leaving forests alone. This stance—championed by figures like John Muir—was based on the belief that any alteration, including thinning or intentional burning, of wilderness harms it. While this ideology helped prevent widespread destruction by timber companies, it also created unintended consequences. Research now shows that overgrown forests are fueling unnaturally severe wildfires, causing irreparable ecological damage and massive economic loss… A key issue remains limited funding. Budget cuts to state and federal land management agencies have reduced the resources available for proactive fire prevention… Insurance and legal concerns further complicate matters. While the need for improved wildfire mitigation is widely recognized, legislative gridlock, environmental regulations, and partisan divisions have slowed progress.
Each spring, the U.S. Forest Service hires dozens of seasonal biologists to venture into remote Northwest forests on federal land and set up acoustic recorders to monitor for sounds indicating the presence of northern spotted owls, a threatened species. There are only as many as 5,000 northern spotted owls left in the Northwest… The counting is crucial for preventing the owls’ extinction. But President Donald Trump ordered a hiring freeze that means the Forest Service cannot hire more than 40 seasonal scientists to count the owls, according to Taal Levi, an associate professor at Oregon State University who works on owl monitoring. The monitoring typically involves about 60 scientists working from central California to Canada, Levi said. It also means the agency will likely go without dozens more scientists needed to monitor threatened and endangered salmon, frogs and other fragile species…. 
…On Monday, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld Missoula federal district judge Donald Molloy’s rulings on a few counts that will require the Kootenai National Forest to keep the Black Ram logging project on hold for a while longer. The appeals court upheld rulings on two of four claims that the U.S. Forest Service challenged, so the agency must redo parts of its project analysis. First, the justices agreed that the Forest Service failed to comply with Kootenai Forest Plan because the agency didn’t show whether or how it included unauthorized roads in its road density calculations. …Second, the justices agreed that the Forest Service didn’t take “a hard look,” as required by the National Environmental Policy Act, at unauthorized road use and its effects. The justices pointed at the agency’s unsupported claims of sporadic use of roads and prompt barrier repair as proof.
The US Department of Agriculture revoked a federal tree-planting grant to Keep Indianapolis Beautiful in a move the nonprofit’s CEO Kranowitz said may be the result of anti-DEI initiatives coming from the Trump Administration. The money would have helped KIB plant more trees throughout the city, and those plantings should not be all the same kind of tree, Kranowitz explained. The $400,000 grant for urban forestry projects was awarded to the organization in January through the Arbor Day Foundation, but was then clawed back on Tuesday. There’s growing evidence that words like “biodiversity” are being targeted by federal agencies bent on terminating Diversity, Equity and Inclusion initiatives across the country. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins recently cancelled a federal contract in Hawaii for an agency meeting on biodiversity and has identified and canceled other training programs on environmental justice claiming they run “contrary to the values of millions of American taxpayers.”
NEW YORK — Chestnut Carbon, a leading developer of nature-based carbon removal solutions, announced today that they have completed the first issuance and sale of Improved Forest Management (IFM) credits sourced from their conservation membership program branded as Forest Carbon Works. The issuance of more than 64,000 credits, or tons of carbon removal, were sold to multiple corporate buyers, including JPMorganChase. These transactions totaled $2.2 million. Chestnut’s U.S.-based IFM membership program, Forest Carbon Works, provides an opportunity for private forest owners to access income-generating carbon markets while preserving the integrity and legacy of their land. The program includes landowners in 36 states with more than 150,000 acres enrolled as of February 2025. These carbon removal credits are certified through Verra on the voluntary carbon market (VCM) and undergo rigorous third-party audits.