Kevin Mason
The US administration’s goal is clear: reduce imports and boost domestic manufacturing of wood products. Eliminating lumber imports would require an additional ~14Bbf of US domestic lumber production, representing a 40% increase on current production. …The big challenge in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) is that key infrastructure is missing: logging infrastructure, sawmill infrastructure and human resources. Logging infrastructure would require increasing logging employment, and that has been on a downward slope for decades as young people find other, similarly paid work more attractive. Third-party contractors could provide logging (and permitting) support, but they would face the same problems of scaling up. Harvest restrictions since 1994 have resulted in large-diameter timber now so the logs are no longer an appropriate size for local mills. Also, roads need to be built.
Unlike in the PNW, federal lands in the South have remained active suppliers of timber, along with other willing timber suppliers (including REITs and private landowners). …If the U.S. were to replace all (or the majority) of lumber imports, we would expect to see new supply coming from the South. …Replacing imports would take a decade, at least, and cost more than $10B for sawmills alone (potentially much higher with escalating costs for steel, machinery, etc.). We also highlight challenges, albeit different ones from the PNW. Investment is a big one. In an uncertain global macroeconomic environment, we do not expect to see major capital investment announcements. …Another big challenge is end-market demand from housing activity. If construction materials and labour costs rise meaningfully on tariff and immigration policies, affordability will decline and the near- term rationale for capital investment will be eroded—even if tariffs have forced housing prices higher (i.e., the stagflation scenario).
WASHINGTON, DC — The American Kitchen Cabinet Alliance (AKCA) recently submitted formal comments as part of the Section 232 investigation on Timber, Lumber and Derivatives (including cabinets). Unfairly traded cabinet imports many of them sold at prices that are often over 60% below that of the domestic market are flooding into the US. …“American cabinet manufacturing plants cannot compete with foreign countries flooding the market with unfairly traded cabinets which has resulted in an estimated $6.5 billion in lost revenue to the domestic industry over the last five years,” remarked Perry Miller, President of Kountry Wood Products. “Foreign imports primarily from Cambodia, Malaysia, Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam that are heavily subsidized are destroying American cabinet jobs. …“The domestic cabinet industry is on the brink of collapse. “We are asking for a Section 232 tariff of at least 60%, to level the playing field and stop the cheating as we seek to protect over 250,000 American jobs.”
BINGEN, Washington — A plywood mill in the southern Washington city of Bingen will close next month and lay off all 81 workers, the plant’s operator said Thursday. The SDS facility has been operating — with occasional stoppages — since 1949. It uses older equipment, according to Wilkins, Kaiser & Olsen, which was part of a consortium of firms that acquired the mill in 2021. “Regrettably, the long-term challenges and the magnitude of the required investment render continued operation unsustainable,” the mill’s operators said. An adjacent stud mill, planer mill and marine facility will continue operating. Bingen is a small city just across the Columbia River from Hood River. WKO and an affiliated business, Mt. Hood Forest Products, are adding 60 full-time positions to increase their output by 35%. The firms said they will consider hiring some of the laid-off workers.
A federal judge in Jackson, Mississippi, issued an order April 28 allowing a lawsuit by a newspaper publisher and lumber company against the Mississippi River Commission (MRC) to proceed. The lawsuit alleges a lack of transparency in meetings. The suit was originally filed in September 2024. Emmerich Newspapers Inc., which publishes dozens of publications across Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas, sued the MRC over what it claimed were secret meetings where proper records were not kept and the public was not notified or admitted. Emmerich was joined as plaintiff by a lumber company that manages hundreds of acres alongside the Mississippi River. The lumber company claims the Corps of Engineers’ decisions on flood control, informed by advice from the MRC, adversely affect its properties. The judge’s decision allows the lawsuit to proceed without ruling on the merits of the allegations.
Uncertainty over international trade barriers has caused significant fluctuations in lumber prices in recent months, according to Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter. “The whipsaw fatigue of conflicting tariff announcements over two months had Western Canadian suppliers hoping to see the market settle down,” Kosman. …Some stakeholders held off on buying lumber altogether, while others ordered early in hopes of securing delivery ahead of any potential trade restrictions. “Others decidedly switched their purchasing to Southern Yellow Pine from SPF,” Kosman says. …Data from the WWPA indicates US sawmills were running at only 67% of full capacity in January, compared to 72% for the full-year 2024. In Canada, sawmill utilization was 74% of capacity, down just one percentage point compared to the previous year. …“At this time, there is significant lumber supply able to come back online at existing facilities should demand improve into the summer.”
Lumber futures fell below $550 per thousand board feet, hovering at yearly lows as excess supply from winter restocking collided added to a decline in demand. A 14.2% drop in U.S. single-family housing starts to an annualized 940,000 units in March, pushed new-home inventories to nearly eight months of supply. While a federal directive to raise timber production from public lands by 25% may ease constraints in the long term, the 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs has removed near-term urgency for buyers to cover import risks. At the same time, expectations of sharply higher anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber have prompted mills to hold back supply, further pressuring prices as domestic inventories accumulate and demand remains subdued despite the onset of the spring building season.
Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the first quarter by 0.3%, with imported goods being a large contributor to the decline as the suppliers prepared for President Trump’s tariff proposals once he took office. NAHB estimates this should even out in the second quarter. Other economic data of note are inflation, which is still elevated but creeping downward, and the unemployment rate, which remains low but may edge up among economic uncertainty. …NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz hasn’t hit the panic button yet. And I still think that we don’t know what President Trump’s economy really is yet. It’s been policy by sledgehammer, and now they’re going to start putting the pieces back together.” NAHB Senior Officers and staff continue to actively engage with lawmakers on this and other policies, including a special BUILD-PAC Capital Club event this week featuring an interview with Sen. Tim Sheehy.
Tuesday marked the 100th day of President Trump’s second term in office and there are signs of stress and jitters in the US construction industry, with rising prices, falling confidence, and a sharp uptick in abandoned projects. “Lumber and metals prices shot up in March, while contractors’ inboxes are bulging with ‘Dear Valued Customer’ letters announcing further increases for many products,” said Ken Simonson, chief economist at AGC. “Rapid-fire changes in tariffs threaten to drive prices higher for many essential construction goods,” he added. The price of materials and services used in nonresidential construction rose 0.4% in March, the third monthly increase in a row, AGC said. It was the first time since September 2023 that input prices had risen for three consecutive months, and comes after more than a year of stable or falling prices, Simonson said. …Within the 0.4% hike, lumber and plywood rose 2.7%.
The Washington State Department of Natural Resources recently began a multi-faceted forest restoration project across approximately 150 acres of the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest near Verlot. The Pilchuck Restoration Project is led by the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Federal Lands Program under the agency’s Good Neighbor Authority agreement with the USDA Forest Service. Established in 2014, the GNA allows DNR to leverage its resources with federal and local partners to perform a variety of restoration activities on federal lands. Operators are following a carefully designed prescription focused on thinning out the small-diameter, younger trees that, due to past management practices, are overcrowding tree stands to the detriment of the larger, older trees.
NEW HAMPSHIRE yield tax on timber, often called the “timber tax,” was established in 1949 and has been locally collected to offset property taxes ever since. …The yield tax on timber has been an essential tool for promoting conservation, helping the timber industry, and stabilizing municipal revenues in heavily timbered towns. …The legislation would, “…encourage conservation of the forest resources of [New Hampshire] by releasing growing wood and timber from the yearly burden of local property taxes and substituting a yield tax….” The timber tax has been very effective achieving these goals… The current policy strikes an excellent balance between industry and conservation. There is a new government-promoted industry threatening New Hampshire’s timber industry, loggers, timber processors, and heavily timbered towns that depend on timber tax revenues. Carbon credits.
MONTREAL – Academics at McGill University in Montreal are providing the U.S. scientific community a platform to protect climate research under attack. Six months ago, researchers at McGill University’s Desautels Faculty of Management launched the Sustainability Academic Network — SUSANHub.com — a database that centralizes climate research and data. “We initially created this platform to connect researchers and professionals in sustainable development and climate change,” said Juan Serpa, a professor at the Desautels Faculty of Management, describing the platform as a kind of “LinkedIn” for the field. But at a time when the administration of United States President Donald Trump is firing climate researchers, banning certain words from scientific articles, cutting funding for environmental research, threatening to withdraw financial support from universities, and deleting scientific reports from government websites, the McGill platform has taken on a different significance. “The goal is to protect scientific data against threats from the U.S. government,” Serpa said.