Kevin Mason
As investors struggle to understand the implications of trade wars and the current tariff regime in the US, we offer our thoughts on the likely impacts (broken down by commodity). We note that trade parameters continue to change dramatically (e.g., tariffs blocked by the courts but then overturned on appeal). To be clear, tariffs are taxes on imports, with the degree of cost-sharing between importer and exporter determined by supply and demand. Some commodities experienced pre-tariff demand pull-forward, but, across the board, tariffs have reduced buyer appetite for any inventory accumulation and have had a generally chilling effect on investment, planning and normal business activity. We note that the ongoing Section 232 investigation into timber and timber products is sure to target lumber, but it may also expand to many others forest products. Uncertainty is now a constant in the sector.
…Tariffs on Canadian lumber imports are on hold pending the outcome of a Section 232 investigation. However, the long-standing softwood lumber dispute rumbles on; with duty rates set to more than double in the second half of 2025, price risk for S-P-F appears to be upside-weighted from current levels. SYP producers—and perhaps to a lesser extent European lumber exporters—should benefit from a drop in the volume of S-P-F going to the US when/if higher duties/tariffs are implemented. OSB and plywood could also be impacted by the Section 232 outcome. In OSB, a tariff on Canadian imports would likely see needed mill downtime north of the border.
Over the past decade, Canadian forestry companies have significantly expanded their footprint in the American lumber industry. While foreign investment remains a key component of a dynamic US economy, industry analysts and policymakers are increasingly scrutinizing the long-term implications of international control over critical domestic manufacturing infrastructure. Canadian-owned firms—including West Fraser, Canfor and Interfor—now operate dozens of sawmills in the US, with many holding more assets south of the border than in their home country. Additional Canadian firms—such as Tolko, Maibec, J.D. Irving, and Kruger—also maintain active operations and land holdings throughout the country. As foreign ownership of US lumber mills grows, several key concerns are emerging: Supply Chain Autonomy… Economic Retention… Market Influence. …Industry stakeholders are urging a closer examination of the issue. Policy suggestions include incentivizing domestic ownership, increasing sourcing transparency, and evaluating regulatory frameworks around foreign investment in strategic industries.
A federal appeals court on Tuesday agreed to let many of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on US trade partners remain in effect for now, extending a pause issued late last month after a separate court ruled the tariffs were illegal. The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals granted the Trump administration’s request for a longer pause after issuing a temporary stay of the lower court ruling last month. The court put the case on a fast track to be resolved by the end of this summer, noting that “these cases present issues of exceptional importance warranting expedited en banc consideration of the merits in the first instance.” The decision comes after the US Court of International Trade ruled on May 28 that Congress did not delegate “unbounded” tariff authority to the president in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. Trump appealed the ruling and, hours later, the appeals court granted the temporary stay.
LONDON — US and Chinese officials said on Tuesday they had agreed on a framework to get their trade truce back on track and remove China’s export restrictions on rare earths while offering little sign of a durable resolution to longstanding trade tensions. …Lutnick said the agreement would remove restrictions on Chinese exports of rare earth minerals and magnets and some of the recent US export restrictions “in a balanced way”, but did not provide details…. adding that both sides will now return to present the framework to their respective presidents for approvals. …The two sides left Geneva with fundamentally different views of the terms of that agreement and needed to be more specific on required actions, said Josh Lipsky. …They have until August 10 to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement, or tariff rates will snap back from about 30% to 145% on the U.S. side and from 10% to 125% on the Chinese side.
KINGSPORT, Tennessee — It could be the third or fourth quarter of 2026 before an anaerobic digester is completed to help with odor mitigation at the Kingsport mill, Domtar officials shared Tuesday. Charlie Floyd, VP of strategic capital projects for Domtar, and Bonnie Depew, environmental manager at Domtar’s Kingsport mill, presented updates about Project Bandit to the Kingsport Economic Development Board. Floyd said the biggest holdup is waiting on permits from the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. TDEC has already asked for two extensions to review the permit application, state records show. …His hope is for the permit to be in the hands of Domtar by the end of the month. Over 80% of the equipment for the anaerobic digester has been purchased, according to Floyd. …At the height of construction, Floyd said there will be around 150 contractors on site to help build the digester and associated equipment.
The CME’s physical lumber futures have been in a bullish trend since the July 2024 low of $455.50 per 1,000 board feet. The weekly chart indicates that lumber futures have formed higher lows and higher highs, reaching a peak of $699 per 1,000 board feet in March 2025. While the price has dropped below the $600 level, the pattern of higher lows remains intact in June 2025. …Seasonality suggests that a lumber rally may need to wait until 2026… Lumber tends to be a seasonal commodity, with prices peaking during late winter and early spring as the weather improves and construction activity increases. In 2021, the old random-length lumber futures rose to a record high of $1,711.20 per 1,000 board feet in May, and in 2022, reached a lower high of $1,477.40 in March. …Keep an eye on interest rates as declines could ignite pent-up demand for new homes, which could light a bullish fuse under the lumber futures arena. 
At International Pulp Week, three speakers discussed businesses that connect to China’s role in the global pulp industry — including trading, port logistics and the futures market. Haidong Weng, Executive Vice President of Pulp & Paper Research at Xiamen C&D… explained that after the US implemented its third wave of tariffs, Chinese exports of paper and board to the US fell sharply, with vessel density in major Chinese ports reflecting a significant pullback in trade flows. …He also described the cascading effects on US retail markets. …The scale and resilience of China’s port logistics were front and centre in a presentation by Tian Jun, representing the Shanghai International Port Group’s Luo Jing Terminal. Tian explained that SIPG views pulp as a strategic growth cargo across its network of general cargo terminals. …Another presentation came via video from Chi-Fei Fei of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), who provided an overview of China’s pulp futures market.
At International Pulp Week, Mathieu Wener, Senior Economist at Numera Analytics, provided a detailed overview of current trends in key end-use markets for pulp, with a particular focus on tissue and printing and writing papers. Drawing on recent data and modelling, he examined how these sectors have evolved post-pandemic, what is driving demand patterns today, and what may lie ahead. Wener began with tissue markets, where profitability has remained strong despite considerable cost pressures in recent years. “Producers passed through rising costs since 2022,” he noted, showing how eurozone parent roll and pulp prices had shifted over that period. Although price differentials between pulp and tissue had narrowed, margins remained healthy.” …Wener underscored the importance of tracking both macroeconomic forces and demographic trends in shaping pulp demand. For tissue, slowing population growth and cautious consumer behaviour would temper growth expectations. For printing and writing papers, the secular decline would continue, but at a somewhat more stable pace.
The final presenter at International Pulp Week, Emanuele Bona, VP of Europe for the Pulp and Paper Products Council (PPPC), provided a comprehensive update on global market pulp demand trends, with a particular focus on the rebound underway in 2025 and the longer-term outlook for key markets and product segments. Bona began by noting that 2024 had been a weak year for market pulp demand, with global chemical market pulp demand falling by 0.9 percent. However, the first months of 2025 showed a marked improvement. “In 2025, after four months, demand is up almost one million tonnes,” he reported. Both softwood and hardwood pulp segments contributed to this recovery. …Looking ahead, Bona projected that global market pulp demand would return to growth but at a more moderate pace. “Growth to average 1.5 percent through 2029,” he said. The long-term trend for softwood pulp was expected to remain flat at best, while hardwood demand growth was projected to slow despite ongoing substitution trends.
Stocks wavered Thursday as President Trump threatened setting unilateral tariffs on trading partners in two weeks. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1%. …Wall Street awaits further developments on trade policy, especially between the U.S. and China, as talks between the two countries have been a focal point this week. Trump said Wednesday he would be willing to extend a July 8 deadline for finishing trade talks with countries before higher US levies take effect, but that the extensions may not be necessary. …“We still think the primary driver for market direction and to break out to all-time highs would be some resolution for tariffs and how they interlink with the budget and the Fed. And we see a lot of headlines about negotiations or pauses or frameworks, but we still haven’t seen a single signed trade deal,” said Tom Hainlin at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group.
WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae published the results of its May 2025 National Housing Survey® (NHS), which includes the 
SACRAMENTO, California — There is already a crisis of available and affordable housing in America. But now, political uncertainty and economic volatility could make home buying even less attainable. …The proposed Trump tariffs on building materials are creating financial volatility that could send housing prices up significantly. Since his announcement of widespread tariffs on April 2, the additional costs imposed on imported lumber, gypsum, aluminum, electronics and other related materials delayed the nation’s housing starts in April, according to NAHB. …“More tariffs equal more anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and consumers,” said David French, at the National Retail Federation. “Tariffs are a tax paid by the U.S. importer that will be passed along to the end consumer. …One of the largest material costs for housing construction is lumber, and the largest amounts are imported into the US from Canada.
Trump administration officials on Tuesday warned of an ominous-looking fire season ahead as they repeated the case for unifying federal wildland firefighting agencies and thinning overgrown forests. Convening with the president in the White House Oval Office, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Agriculture Secretary Brook Rollins alternated lavishing praise on President Donald Trump with a fire-fighting call to arms and an insistence that their respective departments will be ready. “This is going to be an above-normal fire season,” Rollins said, standing near Trump, who was sitting behind the oak Resolute Desk. “This means that there is a higher likelihood of large and intense wildfires than is typically expected for this time of year for the next few months.” There were 64,897 wildfires reported in 2024, compared to 56,580 reported in 2023, according to the Boise, Idaho-based National Interagency Fire Center. The wildfires consumed 8.9 million acres in 2024 compared to 2.6 million acres in 2023. [to access the full story an E&E News subscription is required]
It was not long ago that the small town of Darrington, Washington drew its life from the towering stands of Douglas fir, cedar and hemlock on federal lands. …Efforts to protect the spotted owl severely restricted timber sales on federal land. “We’ve struggled since the owl wars to find an economy,” says Dan Rankin, who grew up in a local logging family and has for the past 14 years been the mayor of Darrington. So Mr. Rankin had reason for hope when Donald Trump re-entered the White House with promises to start cutting trees again. …But more than four months into Mr. Trump’s turbulent second mandate, an alternative outcome is already looming: that the dramatic actions his administration has taken since its return to office could result in fewer federal trees being cut. …Mr. Rankin’s worries are rooted in what he has seen happening at the U.S. Forest Service office. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
SEATTLE — The US Forest Service has been tasked by President Trump to create a plan that will increase timber production in federal forests, and Pacific Northwest industry leaders are waiting to see how that plan will be implemented in a region rich in logging history. Many leaders are worried that this new order will disrupt the decades of work put into policies locally. …Logging has historically been a staple industry in the northwest that has simultaneously been an ongoing conversation between the need to harvest for building and economy, and also protecting the environment within these forests. …Lands Commissioner Dave Upthegrove said the constant balancing act between the economy and the environment continues. “As our state has grown, as many of our forest lands have been developed, it’s more important that we manage these forests now, not just as economic resources, but as valuable assets that contribute to our quality of life,” said Upthegrove. 
Seattle-based Mast Reforestation had a novel idea to help save the planet: sell voluntary carbon credits and use that money to replant forests destroyed by wildfire. …Mast positioned itself as a rising star in the carbon credit market, claiming to be the only “vertically-integrated reforestation carbon credit developer in the industry.”…Now, the company is facing allegations that it deceived potential partners to secure its reforestation projects. The way Mast structures its credits is central to the controversy. Mast sells carbon credits to businesses that want to voluntarily offset emissions. …But Mast’s model hinges on future climate benefits. Instead of waiting for trees to grow and capture carbon, Mast sells its credits based on projections of reductions. …In a wrongful termination lawsuit filed in Siskiyou County, Mast’s former senior director of business development Arnoud de Villegas, claims the company misled potential partners.
Replanting forests can help cool the planet even more than some scientists once believed, especially in the tropics. But even if every tree lost since the mid-19th century is replanted, the total effect won’t cancel out human-generated warming. …In a new study 
In an energy conversation dominated by buzzwords and breakthroughs, it’s easy to overlook the quiet, proven solutions that are already delivering results. Exhibit A: wood pellets. These compact cylinders aren’t flashy or trend on social media. For the uninitiated, they are carriers of renewable carbon and energy, sourced from responsibly managed forests; a real, scalable, domestic resource that delivers energy security, climate value, and rural jobs while sustaining and growing forests. Wood pellets are emerging as one of the smartest plays in America’s energy and climate portfolio. …Every year, America’s 360 million acres of privately-owned forests grow more wood than we harvest. …Responsible forest management, the kind that thins out fuel for wildfires, not only keeps forests healthy but also supplies feedstock for wood pellets. …This is climate action with a hard hat, not a hashtag. …Wood pellets are real, scalable, renewable and a true American resource.
TEXAS — A plan to open a bioenergy plant in Newton County has reached a new milestone with a landmark deal to supply wood for the site in Bon Wier. Mike Lout with KJAS, reports Nick Andrews, President and CEO of the Scottsdale, Arizona-based USA Bioenergy, announced on Tuesday that his company has 
GEORGETOWN, South Carolina — Over 650 Georgetown residents have signed a petition opposing a proposed biomass plant at the site of the International Paper mill that closed last year. The group Citizens for Georgetown says it is working to revitalize the town’s waterfront through “thoughtful redevelopment.” 653 people are opposing the plant that would generate energy for Santee Cooper from tree waste. …Citizens for Georgetown Chairman Tom Swatzel. “Now, we face a critical choice: leave decades of pollution in the land and water, continue with heavy industry OR clean up the site and reimagine these properties into a vibrant, sustainable future that benefits all residents.” …State Sen. Stephen Goldfinch expressed cautious optimism over the proposed plant, saying that it could involve an investment of nearly $4 billion and create new jobs.
“Wildfires are happening more frequently. They’re getting bigger. They’re emitting more smoke,” Paige Fischer, a professor of environmental sustainability at the University of Michigan says. “The climate models are projecting that we’re going to have more frequent, more severe wildfires.” As of Thursday, the 
KITTITAS COUNTY, Wash. — The US Forest Service has taken command of the 60-acre Red Bridge Fire burning about 7 miles east of Cle Elum. Level 3 evacuations were issued for those nearby. A Level 3 evacuation means residents should “go now” or leave immediately. A Level 2 evacuation means there is significant danger in the area; be ready to go or voluntarily evacuate. Level 1 means there is danger in the area. Residents should plan escape routes, but evacuations are voluntary, according to the Washington Smoke Blog. The Red Bridge Fire started on June 9, 2025, at approximately 3:57 p.m. As of 8 p.m., the fire is estimated at 60 acres and growing, according to the Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR).