While the market tries to process what’s to come on the trade front, it’s abundantly clear that the new administration is paying special attention to lumber and likely other wood products. Trump and his surrogates have emphasized the point of view that the US has the underlying resources to produce all its own lumber and wood product needs. In response, there have been a number of news articles highlighting the statements and questioning the idea of whether or not America can quickly and completely wean itself off Canadian wood products. …Canada currently supplies about 12.0 BBF of softwood lumber to the US market. After accounting for the 1.3 BBF of exports the US has shipped in recent years, the US is still short just over 3.2 BBF of operable capacity to quickly fill Canadian lumber supply and still meet current demand levels. In other words, at current demand levels, the US softwood lumber market does not clear without Canadian supply.
…US sawmills could add second and/or third shifts to existing operations to eke out more production if prices and profitability warranted. …It’s plausible that the US could increase supply this way, but as basic economics teaches, there’s only so much upside to raising production by adding labor to the existing capital stock. What about building new sawmill capacity? …Even in favorable conditions, we are talking three to four years to build out the 3-4 BBF of sawmill capacity needed to replace Canadian supply. Even assuming modest demand growth over the remainder of the decade, the US would probably require closer to 10 years to completely and sustainably wean itself off external lumber supply. …Under the right policy conditions and given enough time, US “independence” from Canadian wood products supply and imports more broadly is a plausible scenario, but clearly comes with distinct trade-offs. The brunt of the pain over the near term will be carried by consumers as they absorb these higher prices, especially at a critical point when housing affordability in the US is also under a microscope.
As the cross-border trade war escalates, Canada’s softwood lumber industry has an advantage on its side that no tariff can completely erase – its product is objectively better than much of the timber harvested from US forests. Softwood supplies, especially from BC and Alberta, are widely viewed as more desirable for wood framing because the growth rings are tighter than those found in lumber in the US South. In the milder climate of the U.S. South, the growing season is much faster. It takes about 35 years before southern yellow pine (SYP) trees are harvested. …Canada’s secret weapon, however, is hiding in plain sight. Tighter growth rings tend to result in quality two-by-four or two-by-six SPF boards for home builders, meaning walls that will stay straight. Compared with American SYP lumber, Canadian SPF is also lighter in weight. …Eastern SYP is currently selling at lower prices when compared with SPF. “SYP is an imperfect substitute for SPF,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew McKellar said. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
WASHINGTON — Canadian officials are set to meet with the U.S. commerce secretary in Washington today — days after a dust-up with U.S. President Donald Trump that ended with Ontario pausing its surcharge on electricity exports to the United States. Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman and Ontario Premier Doug Ford are meeting with Howard Lutnick, and Ford says his goal for the meeting is to get a coherent sense of the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs. …Elsewhere in the American capital, Trump’s choice for the next U.S ambassador to Canada is set to take questions today as the relationship between the two countries is strained by tariffs and threats of annexation. Pete Hoekstra, a former Michigan congressman, is scheduled to appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for a nomination hearing.
WASHINGTON — A gobsmacked planet is wondering what’s next from President Donald Trump on the tariff spree he’s set in zigzag motion. In recent weeks, Trump has announced punishing tariffs against allies and adversaries alike, selectively paused and imposed them, doubled and then halved some, and warned late in the week that he’ll tax European wine and spirits a stratospheric 200% if the European Union doesn’t drop a 50% tariff on U.S. whiskey. His ultimate stated goal is clear: to revive American manufacturing and win compromises along the way. But people and nations whose fortunes rise and fall on trade are trying to divine a method to his machinations. So far, he’s spurred fears about slower growth and higher inflation that are dragging down the stock market and consumer confidence. “His tariff policy is erratic,” Robert Halver, at Germany’s Baader Bank, said. “So, there is no planning certainty at all.”
The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has formally launched two Section 232 investigations that could lead to import restrictions on copper and lumber and timber, according to Federal Register notices scheduled for publication on Thursday. Trump signed an executive order on Feb. 25 ordering the copper probe and another on March 1 for lumber and timber. Both instructed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to start the investigations, which threaten to further strain trade relations with Canada and other trading partners. The Section 232 law allows up to 270 days for a probe, but White House officials said they expect Lutnick to move faster. In one sign of that, BIS set an extremely short period for public comment in the two investigations, ending on April 1. that coincides with the deadline for executive branch agencies to compete a number of trade reports for the White House. [to access the full story a PoliticoPro subscription is required]
European industry is scrutinising the list of products drawn up by the European Commission in response to US tariffs on steel and aluminium, and not everyone is pleased. EU tariffs on American products are adversely affecting EU manufacturers of wines, plastics and pulp among other sectors relying on imported products hit by tariffs or caught as collateral victims of the trade war between both sides of the Atlantic. …The European pulp and paper industry has also reacted after seeing imports of the products from the US on the EU list. The EU imported €962 millions’ worth of pulp and €650 millions worth of paper and board from the US in 2023. In exchange European exports of pulp and paper and board were worth €238 million and €2.4 billion respectively. The sector has no interest in a trade war with the Americans. Jori Ringman, Director General, said that “EU and US consumers who need basic hygiene products” were going to be impacted as well as “a whole range of sectors using paper packaging.”
Trump’s escalating trade tariffs will hit world growth and raise inflation, the OECD has predicted. Canada and Mexico are forecast to see the biggest impact as they have had the harshest tariffs imposed on them, but US growth is also expected to be hit. …Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports. The US has also imposed 25% tariffs on other imports from Mexico and Canada – with some exemptions – and a 20% levy on Chinese goods. Canada and the EU have announced retaliatory tariffs. …Canada’s economy is predicted to grow by just 0.7% this year and in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 2% for both years. Mexico is now forecast to contract by 1.3% this year and shrink a further 0.6% next year, instead of growing by 1.2% and 1.6%. Growth in the US has also been downgraded, with growth of 2.2% this year and 1.6% in 2025, down from previous forecasts of 2.4% and 2.1% China’s growth forecast will fall slightly to 4.8%.
The Trump administration’s tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and China — some already in place, others set to take effect in a few weeks — are already driving up the cost of building materials used in new residential construction and home remodeling projects. The tariffs are projected to raise the costs that go into building a single-family home in the U.S. by US$7,500 to US$10,000, according to the NAHB. We Buy Houses in San Francisco, which purchases foreclosed homes and then typically renovates and sells them, is increasing prices on its refurbished properties between 7% and 12%. That’s even after stockpiling 62% more Canadian lumber than usual. …The timing of the tariffs couldn’t be worse as this is typically the busiest time of year for home sales. …Confusion over the timing and scope of the tariffs, and their impact on the economy, could have a bigger chilling effect on the new-home market than higher prices.
Now that a 25% tariff on lumber from Canada is looming, will this cause crazy wood pricing to return? To some extent, that is very probable, and here’s why. In 2024, our country got about 72% of its lumber from its own forests. The rest was imported from various countries, especially Canada, from which we purchased 28.1 million cubic meters last year. Canada accounts for 84.3% of all softwood lumber imports. …While it might be possible to switch to importing more lumber from other countries, none has Canada’s large production capacity. Also, supply chains — especially for lumber — are complex and costly to change, says Frederik Laleicke, at NC State University. …As long as demand for lumber doesn’t drop, a 25% tariff on Canada will likely make lumber—and therefore new houses and renovations—more expensive since US companies will raise the price of Canadian-sourced lumber to compensate for the tariffs.
Lumber futures rebounded to around $650 per thousand board feet, nearing the two-and-a-half-year high of $658 touched earlier this month as escalating U.S. tariff threats on steel, aluminum, and dairy—along with the prospect of sharply higher auto tariffs—stoked fears of further trade restrictions, reversing the recent plunge. The renewed trade war tensions have heightened concerns that lumber could be the next target, prompting traders to reassess supply risks. Earlier, prices had dropped to around $600 after President Trump delayed a 25% tariff on Canadian softwood for the second time, temporarily easing supply concerns. The proposed levy, which would raise total duties to as much as 52%, could significantly strain North American production and push construction costs higher. However, the latest escalation in the trade war has reversed sentiment, with traders wary that lumber could still face new restrictions, driving speculative buying. [END]
I have received several questions from owners and contractors regarding what to expect with lumber prices given the tariffs (or the potential of tariffs, depending on the day). The short answer is prices will go up. The long answer is much more complicated and hinges on a number of factors and considerations. 1. Almost 30 percent of the lumber used in the U.S. each year comes from Canada. …2. Any tariffs or potential for tariffs creates opportunistic price increases. …3. Demand, however, doesn’t seem to be particularly strong for new construction at this time. …4. Tariffs do help to onshore manufacturing (a long-term positive), but the trees aren’t all in America. …In the short-term, tariffs create more uncertainty and increased pricing, which only further adds to the inflation story. In the long-term, tariffs on lumber won’t achieve the level of onshoring that can happen in other industries. 
Shopping for a new home? Ready to renovate your kitchen or install a new deck? You’ll be paying more to do so. The Trump administration’s tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and China are already driving up the cost of building materials used in new residential construction and home remodeling projects. The tariffs are projected to raise the costs that go into building a single-family home in the U.S. by $7,500 to $10,000… Such costs are typically passed along to the homebuyer in the form of higher prices, which could hurt demand at a time when the U.S. housing market remains in a slump and many builders are having to offer buyers costly incentives to drum up sales… “These prices will never come down,” Schnipper said. “Whatever is going to happen, these things will be sticky and hopefully we’re good enough as a small business, that we can absorb some of that.”
Trump administration officials are roiled in debate over how to implement the president’s pledge to equalize U.S. tariffs with those charged by other nations, with aides scrambling to meet the president’s self-imposed deadline of April 2 to debut a plan. Officials have recently weighed whether to simplify the complex task of devising new tariff rates for hundreds of U.S. trading partners by instead sorting nations into one of three tariff tiers, according to people close to the policy discussions, who emphasized that the situation remains fluid and could evolve in the coming weeks. The proposal was later ruled out, said an administration official close to the talks, adding that Trump’s team is still trying to sort how to implement an individualized rate for each nation. …The reciprocal tariff plan is expected to be introduced on April 2, along with additional 25% duties on a handful of industries, such as autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
The US housing market showed mixed signals in February, with a sharp rise in housing starts contrasting with a decline in building permits. According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, new residential construction activity picked up, but future construction intentions weakened, raising questions about the sector’s near-term strength. Privately-owned housing starts surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million in February, marking an 11.2% increase from January’s revised figure of 1.350 million. The single-family sector led the gains, with starts rising 11.4% to 1.108 million units. However, despite this strong monthly performance, overall starts remained 2.9% below February 2024 levels, signaling ongoing challenges in year-over-year growth. …This decline extended the downward trend, with permits now 6.8% below year-ago levels. Single-family authorizations remained relatively stable at 992,000, down just 0.2% from January. 
President Trump’s tariffs could increase material costs for the average new home by as much as $10,000, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The trade group said it has received anecdotal reports from members that Trump’s plan would raise material prices by between $7,500 and $10,000 for the average new single-family home. …The NAHB said softwood lumber is mainly sourced from Canada, while gypsum, a component of drywall, comes primarily from Mexico. Other materials like steel and aluminum — in addition to completed home appliances — are imported to the U.S. from China, the group said. An implementation of the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico as previously laid out by Trump would raise total costs for imported construction materials by more than $3 billion, according to the NAHB.
LOS ANGELES — 
The US president recently suggested that domestic lumber production could be significantly increased by opening federal lands to logging. This move, he argued, would reduce US dependence on lumber imports from Canada and Europe. …At first glance, tapping into federal timber resources might seem like a logical solution. However, the reality is far more complicated. A combination of declining forestry expertise, legal challenges, labor shortages, infrastructure limitations, and lack of private investment incentives makes this an unrealistic path to reduce lumber imports to the US. …While the US president suggests that opening federal lands for logging could boost domestic lumber production, this is an unrealistic expectation. …Despite claims that the US no longer needs Canadian lumber, the reality is that imports from Canada and Europe will continue to play a crucial role in meeting US domestic wood demand in the future.
WASHINGTON STATE is one of the most productive parts of the country for growing timber. Most of the timber is west of the Cascades and its annual production in the United States is only second to Oregon. However, harvesting faces significant constraints according to the Department of Natural Resources (DNR). DNR manages about two million acres of timberlands, but only half can be harvested due to challenging terrain or environmental protections, such as endangered species habitats. …Federal lands in Washington state currently produce minimal timber, and changing protected land status would require congressional action, not just presidential directives. Upthegrove, a Democrat, anticipates any attempts to increase federal timber harvesting would face lengthy legal challenges. In Washington state, over 70% of the timber harvested comes from privately owned forestland. …For these reasons, state officials believe Washington cannot realistically offset the costs associated with Canadian lumber tariffs.
What are Musk, Trump and the congressional right really after? Anyone who works in land management knows these agencies have long gone underfunded and unsupported by Republicans, rendering them less and less effective as the demands on them grow ever more pressing. Now this bloodletting is accelerating, and soon it will be time to go for the throat. As these agencies flounder, turning their lands over to private administration — to timber, mineral and oil extraction or to private ownership and development — will begin to seem logical and even appealing. While sustainable logging can be a valuable forest management tool, research shows that when lands are managed primarily for resource extraction, they become less resilient to wildfire. This is a shortsighted, profit-driven turn toward a land-use model that is ultimately unsustainable. What will the public be left with? Will we still have places to hike, fish, hunt, dirt-bike and ski? Or will a new landlord be setting new rates?
With $2.6 billion in hurricane-recovery money on its way to the national forests of North Carolina, Jenifer Bunty, a US Forest Service disaster-recovery specialist, spent much of the week of February 10th working on a plan to start spending the money. Four months after Hurricane Helene, this meant deciding which bridges urgently needed to be rebuilt, which road repairs prioritized. …“The days of rule by unelected bureaucrats are over,” Donald Trump declared in his speech to Congress last week. For the White House, the firing of tens of thousands of federal workers like Bunty is evidence of “promises made, promises kept.” But for the Forest Service the loss of at least two thousand workers will make it harder to fight ever-worsening wildfires and storms across the country. …After the Trump cuts, a spokesperson for the USDA said that they didn’t include “operational firefighters,” a term Bunty had never heard. 
It might be time to treat your trees to prevent pine beetle infestations in the Black Hills. That’s according to US Forest Service Entomologist Kurt Allen, and Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources Forest Health Specialist John Ball. The pair have been hosting talks and information sessions on mountain pine beetle outbreaks since 1999. Last week, they stopped in Spearfish with a handful of clear messages. For one thing, the Black Hills is not necessarily on the verge of a mountain pine beetle epidemic — at least not on the scale last seen a decade ago… “Between the larvae feeding and a blue stain fungus they introduce, they kill trees very quickly,” Ball said.
Washington’s Department of Natural Resources says it’s coming up with backup plans to address the growing threat of serious wildfires in the state. The typically close working relationship with federal forest managers has frayed under the Trump Administration. It started in mid-February, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut thousands of probationary employees at the U.S. Forest Service. The USDA is in charge of stewarding places like the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest and the Gifford-Pinchot National Forest. Altogether, about 2,000 employees across the country were fired. The USDA emphasized that no “operational firefighters” had been let go, and argued the critical work of responding to wildfires would not be interrupted. …Grassroots Wildland Firefighters estimated that three-quarters of the employees laid off had secondary wildland firefighting duties, meaning firefighting wasn’t their primary job, but they were pulled in to fight fires as needed.
The Alaska Forest Association and two of its members have taken legal action against the US Forest Service. The lawsuit … seeks to compel the federal agency to comply with the Tongass Timber Reform Act’s mandate for timber sales, a move that could help revive the struggling timber industry in southeast Alaska. “Federal law requires the Forest Service to sell enough timber every year to meet market demand,” said Frank Garrison, attorney with the Pacific Legal Foundation, which represents the plaintiffs that include Viking Lumber and Alcan Timber. “…the agency has violated federal law three times over.” The dispute stems from the US Forest Service’s 2016 Management Plan, which outlined a gradual transition from selling old-growth timber to younger trees over a ten-year period. … However, the plaintiffs argue that the agency abandoned the plan, ceasing old-growth timber sales immediately and failing to provide sufficient young-growth timber as promised.
It’s now clear that some moves President Trump has authorized his pal Elon Musk and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency to make will thwart at least a few of Trump’s own often-repeated priorities. …Then there are two moves that figure to make the next fire season, coming up in late spring or early summer, as bad as or worse than recent ones. Trump legitimately repeats the conviction that cleaning forest floors can reduce the intensity and frequency of wildfires. He consistently and falsely blames California’s government for not doing this. …With Musk’s aid, though, he fired 3,400 Forest Service workers in mid-February who were still on probation in their first year of employment, many of whom had been hired to do the job Trump calls critical to stopping fires. …If he knew these firings completely contradict priorities he has trumpeted, why would he have approved them?
Businesses, communities, and wildlife across a vast portion of western Washington, western Oregon, and northwestern California rely on healthy national forests. Since 1994, the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) has guided conservation, recreation, timber production, and other uses of these 19.2 million acres of species-rich and economically important lands and rivers, and now, as it does periodically, the U.S. Forest Service is updating the NWFP… The scientists and land managers who authored the original NWFP recognized the importance of drawing on the best available science. They also had the foresight to incorporate ways to monitor the forests and adjust management if their assumptions—for example, about the plan’s impact on nature and communities—proved wrong… The Forest Service is 
Oregon lawmakers are considering a legislative package that would provide some protection to utility companies whose equipment sparks wildfires. House Bill 3917, introduced Tuesday by Rep. Pam Marsh, D-Ashland, would create a fund to help people who lose homes or businesses to utility-caused wildfires — as long as they agree not to sue utility companies for that damage. Marsh is also sponsoring a complementary bill, House Bill 3666, which would allow the Oregon Public Utility Commission to grant a safety certificate to utilities it deems are “acting reasonably with regard to wildfire safety practices.” The wildfire assistance fund created by HB 3917 would be seeded by utility companies that are regulated by the state’s Public Utility Commission, including Pacific Power and Portland General Electric. Half of their their seed contribution could come from ratepayer dollars, and the other half would come from the share of rates designated for profits.
A bipartisan group of lawmakers on Monday urged the Trump administration to scrap plans to kill more than 450,000 invasive barred owls in West Coast forests as part of efforts to stop the birds from crowding out a smaller type of owl that’s facing potential extinction. The 19 lawmakers claimed the killings would be “grossly expensive” and cost $3,000 per bird. They questioned if the shootings would help native populations of northern spotted owls, which have long been controversial because of logging restrictions in the birds’ forest habitat beginning in the 1990s, and the closely related California spotted owl. Barred owls are native to eastern North America and started appearing in the Pacific Northwest in the 1970s. They’ve quickly displaced many spotted owls, which are smaller birds that need larger territories to breed.
WASHINGTON — Three former Environmental Protection Agency leaders sounded an alarm Friday, saying 
HORRY COUNTY, S.C. — The 
HORRY COUNTY, S.C. — As the Covington Drive fire in Carolina Forest reaches Day 11, the South Carolina Forestry Commission told News13 the agency will cover all its costs associated with fighting the blaze but that it’s “too early to know” what the actual price will be. “We will cover all our costs associated with the fire — personnel, food, lodging, equipment, etc,” the agency said. “Since the Southeast Compact was activated, we will reimburse the Florida IMT for their costs — personnel, food, lodging, equipment. As with all large incidents of this type, there will be expenses we don’t even know about yet that we will have to pay for.” The forestry commission said since the fire management assistance grant was approved, FEMA will reimburse agencies and fire departments for 75% of approved costs. 
Donald Trump’s administration is to reconsider the official finding that greenhouse gases are harmful to public health, a move that threatens to rip apart the foundation of the US’s climate laws, amid a stunning barrage of actions to weaken or repeal a host of pollution limits upon power plants, cars and waterways. Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued an extraordinary cavalcade of pollution rule rollbacks on Wednesday, led by the announcement it would potentially scrap a landmark 2009 finding by the US government that planet-heating gases, such carbon dioxide, pose a threat to human health. The so-called endangerment finding, which followed a supreme court ruling that the EPA could regulate greenhouse gases, provides the underpinning for all rules aimed at cutting the pollution that scientists have unequivocally found is worsening the climate crisis.
President Trump is pushing federal agencies to expand timber harvests… The U.S. Forest Service is already set to increase the number of trees it harvests to one of the highest levels since 2019, a result of Biden-era policies. But advocates argue that we need trees now more than ever and that this increase in timber harvest doesn’t make sense. The Forest Service is facing a lawsuit 
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a lawsuit from Republican attorneys general in 19 states aimed at blocking climate change suits against the oil and gas industry from Democratic-led states. The justices acted on an unusual Republican effort to file suit in the Supreme Court over the Democratic states’ use of their own state courts to sue fossil fuel companies for deceiving the public about the risks of their products contributing to climate change. The Supreme Court typically hears only appeals, but the Constitution gives the court authority to hear original lawsuits states file against each other. Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito said they would have allowed the lawsuit to proceed for now. The justices don’t have the discretion to reject the complaint at this stage, Thomas wrote in a dissent that did not deal with the merits of the claim.
Among the wave of humanity that came to Canada in the 19th century were hundreds of thousands of Irish, some of whom ended up in Bradford. …Between 1815 and 1840, about 450,000 Irish migrated to the British North American colonies. Cheap labour was needed in lumber camps and for construction of the Welland Canal and the Rideau Canal. Canada represented a new hope. Irish migration was encouraged by leaflets circulated by Canadian lumber merchants and the British government. For their part, lumber merchants realized money could be made in loading their vessels with would-be settlers on the return trip from Britain. …Irish migration to Canada increased when Ireland was struck by the Potato Famine due to widespread starvation. During this period, more than one million Irish died from starvation and resultant diseases. Even more fled overseas, many to Canada. …In 1847 alone, at least 110,000 Irish left Irish and British ports for Canada. The tragedy is many didn’t make it. …On this St. Patrick’s Day, raise a toast to them.