The COFI Day 1 luncheon panel on Canada–US relations and forest products trade brought together political veterans and policy thinkers to unpack the next four years of cross-border dynamics and what they mean for British Columbia’s forest sector. Moderated by Corinne Stavness, Vice President of Corporate Affairs at Western Forest Products, the discussion featured Glen Clark, Chair of BC Hydro and former Premier of BC; James Moore, Senior Advisor with Edelman and former federal Industry Minister; and Mark Cameron, Fellow at the Public Policy Forum and leader of its Canada–US Relations Strategy. Clark opened with a clear warning about the US election. “We are entering a period of maximum unpredictability.” …James Moore stressed that Canada must shift from reacting to shaping outcomes. …Mark Cameron provided a broader policy context, noting the bipartisan consensus around economic nationalism is unlikely to shift.
An invasive tree species that is illegal to plant in Ohio has begun to bloom, and will soon fill the air with a distinctive odor that many liken to rotting fish. Callery pear trees – which come in multiple varieties including “Bradford” pear, “Autumn Blaze” and “Cleveland Select” – typically begin to bloom in the state in late March to early April, according the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. The species was brought to North America from Asia in the 1900s with the goal of combatting fire blight, a bacterial disease among common pear trees. The tree quickly become popular in landscaping due to its adaptability, white flowers and shape. It has also since become well-known for another one of its qualities – its odor. The tree’s blooms typically have a strong aroma, which has been likened to a variety of unpleasant scents, including rotting fish, puke and animal waste.
Premier David Eby cautioned last week that BC should not make too much of the appearance that the country “dodged a bullet” in the latest round of tariff fire from the US. …Eby’s fears were borne out, when the US announced a plan to more than double the duty against Canadian softwood. …Eby told the legislature that Forests Ministry staff are “working on a proposal to defer stumpage.” The tariff threat likely means a setback for the ambitious goal that Eby set for the forest minister, Ravi Parmar. He directed Parmar to “work toward…a harvest of 45 million cubic metres per year”. The increase would be 50 per cent greater than last year’s 30 million cubic metres harvest, but still well short of the almost 60 million harvested the year the New Democrats took office. …Though the industry welcomed the premier’s target for increasing the harvest, it remains privately skeptical that the NDP can make the necessary changes in regulation and permitting to bring about the increase.
The US is set to more than double the duty it charges on softwood lumber imports from Canada, with the planned new rate set at 34.45%, up from the previous 14.54%. …New softwood lumber duties were long-feared amid the growing trade war between Canada and the US, and would be the latest blow to BC’s beleaguered forestry industry, which has seen thousands of workers laid off over the last few years. BC Premier David Eby condemned the planned duty hike as an “attack on forest workers and British Columbians” in a statement on Saturday. While Canada may have been spared additional tariffs from the US on Wednesday, anxiety around levies on BC’s softwood lumber industry remains high. …Under the U.S. Tariff Act, the Department of Commerce determines whether goods are being sold at less than fair value or if they’re benefiting from subsidies provided by foreign governments.
Canadian lumber has been left out of Trump’s tariff blitz, despite the president’s repeated threats to add to import taxes to a big chunk of US wood supply. Prices for two-by-fours are tumbling. Lumber futures contracts shed 8.7% to end at $606 per thousand board feet, the lowest price since mid February. They are on track for their worst day since the pandemic-era lumber bubble burst three years ago. Prices had risen this year in anticipation of another layer of import taxes. …That climb is unwinding. But the decline can also be chalked up to expectations that tariffs will push up residential construction prices and strain affordability. The tariffs Trump announced Wednesday will add about $6,400 to the cost of building an average house, UBS analyst John Lovallo estimates. That assumes that about 7% of the materials are imported and subject to an average tariff of 22%. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
MONTREAL — The notion that Canadian companies can simply switch supply chains in response to American tariffs is a fantasy, experts say. Businesses north of the border are looking elsewhere to source their material and sell their products. But companies caught up in tightly braided supply channels after decades of trade pacts and sector specialization may quickly bump into barriers around everything from transport and labour costs to resource availability, manufacturing capacity and market saturation. …Cancelling contracts with Canadian suppliers would trigger breakage fees of up to $500 million per U.S. factory, the group said. Many parts cross the border multiple times before final assembly. …Auto, lumber and steel producers would face some of the toughest challenges in the hunt for new markets, Paschen said. …Forestry players face an entirely different dilemma. Lumber exports, while ample, have a low value per volume compared to some other commodities.
The United States has announced sweeping changes to encourage more logging in the country’s national forests. A new emergency order requires rolling back environmental protections on national forests… A big question for forestry economists is whether the U.S. is in need of significantly larger lumber production. …The forest products industry will only begin quickly cutting and milling more U.S. timber if there is demand, Jeff Reimer, an economics professor at Oregon State University said. Much of the lumber needs in the eastern part of the U.S. are met by private forests he said, that won’t be impacted by the new Forest Service requirements. But lumber in the west is almost all from Canada. …”Loggers and mills need to have …assurance that they can sell their products at a profit,” Reimer said. “If we see high inventories of unsold housing and low (weak) housing starts, then the demand for lumber is probably low.”
President Donald Trump is prepared to impose tariffs on many Canadian products that are shipped to the United States. Included on the list of tariffs are the wood products industry, which is facing a 25 percent tariff on products shipped south of the border. In response to the President’s actions, the Vermont House Committee on Agriculture and Forestry took testimony from two employees at the Agency of Natural Resources last week… In the past two years Vermont has lost two sawmills, becoming more reliant on Canada. Vermont imported $52 million in sawmill and wood products from Canada in 2024. Pierson said some of the wood was shipped from Vermont to Canada where it was processed and shipped south.
Homebuilder stocks plunged Monday following reports that the US is preparing to sharply increase tariffs on Canadian lumber, independent of President Donald Trump’s new “reciprocal” tariffs. …After reports of the new lumber duties emerged over the weekend, however, shares of homebuilders plunged swiftly Monday. …”Tariffs are the clear culprit for the stock market pullback and fears of recession,” says Realtor.com® Senior Economist Joel Berner. “Recession risk is especially poignant for builders.” …The latest round of tariffs, however, will likely increase materials costs for all homebuilders, to some extent, with a recent survey of builders finding that they expect an average cost increase of $9,200 per home as a result of tariffs. …Over the weekend, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi raised his outlook for the odds of a recession this year to 60%, up from just 15% a few months ago.
US trade wars could have major implications for an already tenuous housing market….A price hike on building materials will likely make building affordable housing feasible, an approach that many real estate experts believe is crucial to resolving the housing market gridlock. The housing sector comprises over 15% of the US GDP and will be heavily impacted by tariffs on building materials such as lumber and steel. And 70% of imported lumber comes from Canada. The NAHB noted that the tariffs are “not only expected to raise the cost of building materials, which are up 34% since December 2020, far higher than the rate of inflation, but also wreak havoc on the building material supply chain. In turn, this will put even more upward price pressure on building materials.” …Uncertainty stemming from the newly unveiled tariffs has eroded consumer and investor confidence, which has, in turn, diminished homebuyer optimism.
US stocks opened lower Monday as markets around the world tumbled over concerns about how President Trump’s sweeping tariffs might upend the global economy and stymie US economic growth. Markets opened in bear market territory – a decline of 20% from a recent peak – after a historic rout in Asia and massive losses in Europe. The Dow fell 1,200 points, or 3.2%. The broader S&P 500 was 3.4% lower and opened in bear territory. The Nasdaq Composite slid 3.96%. The S&P 500 hit a record high less than seven weeks ago, on February 19. If the index closes in bear market territory, that would be the second-fastest peak-to-bear market shift in history. Wall Street’s fear gauge has surged to levels not seen since the Covid-19 pandemic as investors fret over the market’s next move. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index has slumped to its lowest levels this year.
Wall Street’s main indexes reversed course and moved sharply higher after White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said in an interview that President Donald Trump was considering a 90-day tariff pause on all countries expect China. At 10:20 a.m. the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 333.50 points, or 0.87%, to 38,614.49, the S&P 500 gained 79.99 points, or 1.69%, to 5,154.07 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 362.69 points, or 2.33%, to 15,950.47.
The stock market took another pounding Friday after China retaliated with new tariffs on U.S. goods, raising fears a trade war will tip the globe into a recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 1,130 points, or 2.8%. This follows a 1,679.39 point decline on Thursday. The S&P 500 slid 3.2% after the benchmark shed 4.84% on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite shed 3.5% as many tech companies have exposure to China. …“The Trump administration may be playing a game of chicken with trading partners, but market participants aren’t willing to wait around for the results,” said Michael Arone, at State Street Global Advisors. “Investors are selling first and asking questions later.” Bank stocks tumbled in the premarket as worries of a U.S. economic slowdown grew. …The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 4% Friday as investors flooded into bonds for safety. JPMorgan late Thursday raised the odds of a recession this year to 60% from 40%.
The Oregon Building Codes Division (BCD) has published its first permit-ready plan under the state’s updated Permit-Ready Plans Program. The building plans, available free to the public, are for a code-compliant residential deck. The Permit-Ready Plans Program creates an efficient pathway for the state to develop and make publicly accessible building plans that meet the requirements of the state building code. Plans are published to the BCD website. …The first plan published is a single-level, wood-framed, exterior deck attached to a building regulated by the Oregon Residential Specialty Code. BCD anticipates publishing more permit-ready plans for other residential accessory structures such as pole buildings, detached garages, patio covers, and carports later this year. The division will start developing plans for smaller detached dwelling units by the end of 2025.
The Trump administration’s drive to harvest more timber from national forests will lead to a “thriving wood products economy” that doesn’t rely on imports, a top Forest Service official told the agency’s top brass in a memo last week. But the timber goal acting Associate Chief Chris French pinpointed — a 25 percent increase from current levels offered for sale — would fall short of the first Trump administration’s ambitions and barely make a dent in U.S. timber supplies, data shows. The chasm between the new administration’s rhetoric — cut more trees on national forests to reduce the country’s reliance on wood imports and rejuvenate the economy — and the math behind French’s memo reflect the hurdles to returning to the timber industry’s prosperous times around national forests… Timber industry representatives and others familiar with the Forest Service’s timber program point to several flaws in the administration’s timber-boom narrative, although the industry welcomes the Forest Service’s moves to step up production.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday announced will allow logging in national forests, which will help spur timber production amid reciprocal tariffs on other nations. A memo by USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins follows an executive order by President Donald Trump last month to expand timber production. There are 154 national forests covering approximately 188.3 million acres. … “Healthy forests require work, and right now, we’re facing a national forest emergency,” Rollins said in a statement. “We have an abundance of timber at high risk of wildfires in our National Forest. “I am proud to follow the bold leadership of President Trump by empowering forest managers to reduce constraints and minimize the risks of fire, insects, and disease so that we can strengthen American timber industry and further enrich our forests with the resources they need to thrive.” …The Sierra Club said the order was a giveaway to the logging industry.
Leaders from the Texas forest industry urged Angelina County commissioners Tuesday to table a proposed road use agreement they say unfairly targets timber haulers and could lead to legal challenges. Dave Durren, speaking on behalf of the Texas Logging Council and the Texas Forestry Association, said the proposed policy would require permits and potential financial responsibility for road maintenance, placing an undue burden on loggers. “Other agricultural sectors… are not subject to this level of scrutiny or regulation, despite using the same rural road systems. This selective enforcement places an undue burden on the forestry sector and creates an uneven playing field,” the speaker said. The speaker also cited the passage of Texas Proposition 1, a constitutional amendment approved by Texas voters in 2023 protecting the right to farm, ranch and produce timber. He argued that regulating the transportation of timber directly interferes with the constitutionally protected activity.
OKLAHOMA CITY — There is more fallout from what has largely divided Governor Kevin Stitt and the entire firefighting community. Governor Stitt confirms two more top-level employees within Oklahoma Forestry Services. The two unnamed employees follow the firing of lauded Forestry Director Mark Goeller. …Since Goeller’s firing, Stitt has continued making shocking changes — and suggestions — within and about forestry. He has suggested eliminating OFS altogether and called for an investigation, claiming 50% of resources went untapped during the March wildfires. …“Forestry is an integral part of what we do,” said Rep. Stan May, who worked for the Tulsa Fire Department for 30 years. …May said it would also likely disrupt inter-state agreements that aid in a multitude of disasters. He said if we don’t help others, it will hinder our efforts to get help. “We have to make sure those agreements are in place,” he said.
Last week, Gov. Kevin Stitt criticized the Oklahoma State Forester’s response to the fires that blazed across Oklahoma in March. This week, the governor is floating the concept of axing the entire Forestry Services division. Stitt has said he believes the Oklahoma Forestry Service held back resources during the fires. When asked to specify which resources during a press conference, Stitt said he didn’t know. “The fact that we can’t get answers about where their assets were around the state is further proof that this is a deep-seated bureaucracy that are trying to protect their actions,” Stitt said. “We still haven’t been able to figure out where they were during that thing.” Just weeks after the fires, the state’s Chief Forester Mark Goeller resigned following criticism from the governor.
LONDON – The United States has withdrawn from talks in London looking at advancing decarbonisation in the shipping sector and Washington will consider “reciprocal measures” to offset any fees charged to U.S. ships, a diplomatic note said. Delegates are at the UN shipping agency’s headquarters this week for negotiations over decarbonisation measures, aimed at enabling the global shipping industry to reach net zero by “around 2050″. …”The U.S. rejects any and all efforts to impose economic measures against its ships based on GHG emissions or fuel choice,” according to a diplomatic demarche sent to ambassadors by the United States. …”Should such a blatantly unfair measure go forward, our government will consider reciprocal measures so as to offset any fees charged to U.S. ships and compensate the American people for any other economic harm from any adopted GHG emissions measures,” the note from Washington said.
KINGSPORT, Tennessee – The Domtar Packaging Mill in Kingsport has operated for decades, and residents have noticed one significant aspect of the mill that some believe has caused community strife: the smell. The Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) is currently investigating three complaints about the odor from Domtar between March 31 and April 1. The TDEC said: “Although TDEC does not regulate odors, we do want to ensure that the facility is complying with its permit conditions.” …At the last Kingsport Economic Development Board meeting on April 1, Domtar updated the board on the wastewater treatment system plan. …The short-term plan involves reducing mill material losses and flow and optimizing the current wastewater treatment system. Domtar says this will last around a year. The long-term plan involves building a new anaerobic digester system. Domtar estimates that this project could take up to 18 months.