
Kelly McCloskey
We reached out to Robert McKellar at Harmattan Risk in August 2024 for comment on the increasing pace of change in the forest sector, shaped by political forces and government intervention. Robert’s op-ed offered a thoughtful analysis of how inherent political risks—especially those linked to Canada–US trade friction—could rapidly unsettle an industry long reliant on stability. At the time, Trump’s potential political comeback was still largely speculative. Since that op-ed, the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Trump’s re-emergence is no longer a remote possibility but a concrete reality that has intensified uncertainty across the sector. With these developments in mind, we reconnected with Robert to update his analysis and explore how the risks he foresaw have become even more pronounced. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]
Trump’s executive order to implement 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports, with a lower 10 per cent levy on Canadian energy, was delayed until March 4. …Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said Monday that Canada needs to send the message it will “fight back” after U.S. President Donald Trump said steep tariffs are indeed coming next week. In a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House on Monday, Trump was asked directly whether he was moving ahead with levies against America’s closest neighbours. …While the original executive order was tied to the flow of deadly fentanyl, the president said earlier this month the pause would allow time to reach a “final economic deal.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke to Trump by phone Saturday ahead of Monday’s virtual G7 meeting… updating the president on efforts at the Canada-U.S. border to counter trafficking in fentanyl.
The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated the
TUPPER LAKE, N.Y. — Immigrations and Customs Enforcement conducted a raid Feb. 18 at Tupper Lake Pine Mill in New York state and detained nine employees. In a statement …the parent company of the mill, The Matra Group, said that the employees were authorized to work in the U.S. …“Nine employees were detained, all of whom were, to our knowledge, authorized to work in the United States, as we verify all employees through the I-9 process,” Nicholas Drouin, Matra co-president and director of manufacturing said. All U.S. employers must follow that process to verify workers’ identities and employment eligibility. …The mill — formerly known as the Tupper Lake Hardwoods Inc. — is owned by the Quebec-based Matra Group, a lumber harvesting and distribution company.
WASHINGTON —
If Canada is hit with 25% tariffs… the trade impacts for the forest products sector will be wide ranging. …Lumber is the most talked about commodity with respect to tariffs, largely due to the size of the market but also the fact that tariffs would be in addition to duties which are already being paid and are set to rise come August. The US can’t supply its own lumber demand and will have to continue to import Canadian lumber. Prices will rise. …The US is even more reliant on OSB from Canada. …In softwood, ~70% of demand is met by imports and in hardwood the proportion is even higher, at 89%. Canada is the largest softwood pulp supplier to the US, representing 74% of imports; a 25% tariff on Canadian goods would inevitably result in higher costs for US customers that produce paper, packaging and tissue. There are no easy near-term substitution options.
President Donald Trump “thrives on unpredictability”, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS. In the last 30 days alone, multiple tariffs by Trump have been announced, imposed, called off and hotly debated. Now, the tariffs are beginning to take shape. And homebuilders are wary. …The real outcry, though, regards lumber. Roughly 30% of the lumber used in the United States last year was imported – more than 85% from Canada. …the housing industry is sharing concerns. Shortly after Trump’s inauguration, the NAHB applauded his day-one executive order that urged government agencies to take action to lower housing costs and expand supply. But NAHB chairman Carl Harris said raising tariffs will have the opposite effect. …“Tariffs on lumber and other building materials increase the cost of construction and discourage new development, and consumers end up paying for the tariffs in the form of higher home prices,” Harris said in a press release.
For the past 25 years, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has helped develop building codes, the construction standards that help houses survive hurricanes, wildfires and earthquakes. Now, the Trump Administration has ordered that to stop. …FEMA is dropping out of the latest effort to improve building codes. …The recommendations FEMA submitted were filed with the International Code Council, an independent association that develops building codes used by states and local governments. The proposals FEMA is retracting its involvement from focus on helping homes survive strong winds, seismic shaking and rising floodwaters. …The ICC convenes experts and stakeholders in the building industry to review and improve building codes every three years, and is developing a new set of standards now. After they’re approved, many local and state governments across the country adopt the codes, which set the mandatory construction rules in their communities.
After a century of wildfire suppression across the West, it’s no secret that the approach to forest management has needed to change. And change is, and has been, underway. But newly proposed changes, now in the form of legislation that would let fuel mitigation projects, including logging, in high-risk zones like the forest surrounding Durango skirt the public input process have some environmental groups up in arms. The
SEATTLE — The termination letters that ended the careers of thousands of U.S. Forest Service employees mean fewer people and less resources will be available to help prevent and fight wildfires, raising the specter of even more destructive blazes across the American West, fired workers and officials said. The Forest Service firings …are part of a wave of federal worker layoffs, as President Donald Trump’s cost-cutting measures reverberate nationwide. Workers who maintained trails, removed combustible debris from forests, supported firefighters and secured funds for wildfire mitigation say staffing cuts threaten public safety, especially in the West, where drier and hotter conditions linked to climate change have increased the intensity of wildfires. …U.S. Rep. Kim Schrier, a Washington state Democrat, said on the social platform X that the Forest Service layoffs are already hurting the state, “and it is only going to get worse. Fire season is coming.”
Fewer wildfires occur in North American forests today than in past centuries, but this decline has increased the risk of more intense wildfires, according to a study published in Nature Communications. While it may seem unexpected, frequent low-intensity surface fires help maintain forest health by naturally reducing fuel buildup over large areas. Researchers from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and the U.S. Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station compared wildfire frequency across two periods: 1600 to 1880 and 1984 to 2022. Using data from 1,850 tree-ring records in historically burned areas, they assessed past fire activity and compared it with modern fire perimeter maps from Canada and the United States. The findings show modern-day fires are much less frequent than they were in past centuries, despite recent record-breaking fire years, such as 2020.
PORTLAND, Ore. — An environmental nonprofit is sounding the alarm over the federal funding cuts and hiring freeze instituted by President Donald Trump’s administration, which it said could threaten the population of Oregon’s endangered spotted owl. The widespread layoffs and cuts instituted by the Trump administration have set off a series of protests across the country and around Portland, some of which have focused specifically on the thousands of U.S. National Parks and Forest Service workers who have been fired. The Northwest Forest Plan and the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) require the endangered owl population to be monitored, but the Center for Biological Diversity said in a news release that the federal freeze means the monitoring “either won’t occur or will be greatly reduced.”
A group of scientists has been quietly working for decades on a project to improve tree genetics, with white oaks among the target species for the UT Tree Improvement Program. For those who are curious, genetics in organisms refers to the study of genes and how they are passed down from generation to generation. Genetics in trees, however, focuses on the study of genes within tree species and examines how their genetic makeup influences traits such as growth rate, wood quality, and resilience to environmental stresses. Scott Schlarbaum, a distinguished professor of forestry at UTIA, leads the UT Tree Improvement Program and is among the co-authors of the paper that describes the white oak genome and how local adaptations may have implications for the species in relation to heat and drought stress. Photo by A. Mains, courtesy UTIA.