Kelly McCloskey
We reached out to Robert McKellar at Harmattan Risk in August 2024 for comment on the increasing pace of change in the forest sector, shaped by political forces and government intervention. Robert’s op-ed offered a thoughtful analysis of how inherent political risks—especially those linked to Canada–US trade friction—could rapidly unsettle an industry long reliant on stability. At the time, Trump’s potential political comeback was still largely speculative. Since that op-ed, the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Trump’s re-emergence is no longer a remote possibility but a concrete reality that has intensified uncertainty across the sector. With these developments in mind, we reconnected with Robert to update his analysis and explore how the risks he foresaw have become even more pronounced. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]
Trump’s executive order to implement 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports, with a lower 10 per cent levy on Canadian energy, was delayed until March 4. …Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said Monday that Canada needs to send the message it will “fight back” after U.S. President Donald Trump said steep tariffs are indeed coming next week. In a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House on Monday, Trump was asked directly whether he was moving ahead with levies against America’s closest neighbours. …While the original executive order was tied to the flow of deadly fentanyl, the president said earlier this month the pause would allow time to reach a “final economic deal.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke to Trump by phone Saturday ahead of Monday’s virtual G7 meeting… updating the president on efforts at the Canada-U.S. border to counter trafficking in fentanyl.
The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated the 
Canadian producers of softwood lumber are bracing for a decision this week from the U.S. Department of Commerce that could mean a surge in anti-dumping duty rates, compounding the industry’s worries over President Donald Trump’s threats for sweeping tariffs on all imports from Canada. Most Canadian producers are currently paying 7.66% in anti-dumping duties, but that could jump to 20 per cent, trade experts say. The Commerce Department’s decision, slated for Thursday, will be preliminary, with an effective date in August. …Analysts are [also] predicting that there will be higher countervailing duty rates, with the Commerce Department scheduled to issue a preliminary ruling in May. Forestry analyst Russ Taylor forecast that countervailing duties could rise to about 10%. Most Canadian softwood producers are paying countervailing and anti-dumping duties that currently total 14.4 per cent. …The Commerce Department’s administrative review is based on softwood markets in 2023, when prices were low. [to access the full story, a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
Another day, another tariff threat for markets to digest. This time it’s lumber getting whipsawed, as U.S. President Donald Trump says he is going to bring in tariffs on Canadian lumber imports to the U.S. soon. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday evening, Trump added lumber to the list of items he plans to slap tariffs on in the near future. …Canada would feel any such policy directly, but perhaps not as painfully as you might think. As is the case with oil, lumber is one front in the trade war where Canada can do a lot of collateral damage of its own. …While the U.S. theoretically has enough trees to meet its own needs, ramping things up both in terms of the logs and the capacity to process them would be next to impossible in the short term. Recall during the pandemic when Canadian lumber prices spiked by more than 300%, yet U.S. buyers kept buying. 
LONDON/BRUSSELS — The US paper and pulp industry is lobbying the Trump administration to ask the EU to declare the US deforestation-free, a step that could make it easier for exporters to meet the bloc’s new environmental rules. From December, the European Union’s anti-deforestation policy will ban imports of commodities linked to forest destruction. Brussels already delayed the policy’s launch by a year. …”A delay does not solve our concerns with the regulation’s complex requirements and significant technical barriers,” said Heidi Brock, CEO of the American Forest and Paper Association (AF&PA). …The law does not contain a category of countries deemed to be deforestation-free – despite EU lawmakers attempting unsuccessfully to add a new “no risk” category of countries which would face even lighter rules. Any changes to the EU law would require a legal proposal from the Commission, and approval from EU lawmakers and member states.
WASHINGTON — President Trump is taking a blowtorch to the rules that have governed world trade for decades. The 
TUPPER LAKE, N.Y. — Immigrations and Customs Enforcement conducted a raid Feb. 18 at Tupper Lake Pine Mill in New York state and detained nine employees. In a statement …the parent company of the mill, The Matra Group, said that the employees were authorized to work in the U.S. …“Nine employees were detained, all of whom were, to our knowledge, authorized to work in the United States, as we verify all employees through the I-9 process,” Nicholas Drouin, Matra co-president and director of manufacturing said. All U.S. employers must follow that process to verify workers’ identities and employment eligibility. …The mill — formerly known as the Tupper Lake Hardwoods Inc. — is owned by the Quebec-based Matra Group, a lumber harvesting and distribution company. 
WASHINGTON — 
If Canada is hit with 25% tariffs… the trade impacts for the forest products sector will be wide ranging. …Lumber is the most talked about commodity with respect to tariffs, largely due to the size of the market but also the fact that tariffs would be in addition to duties which are already being paid and are set to rise come August. The US can’t supply its own lumber demand and will have to continue to import Canadian lumber. Prices will rise. …The US is even more reliant on OSB from Canada. …In softwood, ~70% of demand is met by imports and in hardwood the proportion is even higher, at 89%. Canada is the largest softwood pulp supplier to the US, representing 74% of imports; a 25% tariff on Canadian goods would inevitably result in higher costs for US customers that produce paper, packaging and tissue. There are no easy near-term substitution options.
Lumber futures have recently surged past $610 per thousand board feet, reaching a near three-month high as market conditions tighten. A combination of mill closures, reduced North American production capacity, and tariff concerns has led to increasing volatility in the lumber market. Investors and traders are closely watching these developments, as the outlook for lumber futures remains uncertain amid ongoing supply and trade disruptions. …One of the primary drivers behind the latest rally in lumber futures is the ongoing reduction in North American production capacity. …Adding to the supply concerns is the looming increase in U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber. For traders, this means increased volatility in lumber futures as market participants react to policy changes. Higher tariffs could discourage Canadian exports, forcing buyers to seek alternative sources or absorb the additional costs, further driving up lumber futures prices.
President Donald Trump “thrives on unpredictability”, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS. In the last 30 days alone, multiple tariffs by Trump have been announced, imposed, called off and hotly debated. Now, the tariffs are beginning to take shape. And homebuilders are wary. …The real outcry, though, regards lumber. Roughly 30% of the lumber used in the United States last year was imported – more than 85% from Canada. …the housing industry is sharing concerns. Shortly after Trump’s inauguration, the NAHB applauded his day-one executive order that urged government agencies to take action to lower housing costs and expand supply. But NAHB chairman Carl Harris said raising tariffs will have the opposite effect. …“Tariffs on lumber and other building materials increase the cost of construction and discourage new development, and consumers end up paying for the tariffs in the form of higher home prices,” Harris said in a press release.
For the past 25 years, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has helped develop building codes, the construction standards that help houses survive hurricanes, wildfires and earthquakes. Now, the Trump Administration has ordered that to stop. …FEMA is dropping out of the latest effort to improve building codes. …The recommendations FEMA submitted were filed with the International Code Council, an independent association that develops building codes used by states and local governments. The proposals FEMA is retracting its involvement from focus on helping homes survive strong winds, seismic shaking and rising floodwaters. …The ICC convenes experts and stakeholders in the building industry to review and improve building codes every three years, and is developing a new set of standards now. After they’re approved, many local and state governments across the country adopt the codes, which set the mandatory construction rules in their communities.
The cement industry is at a crossroads as decarbonization is expected to take its toll, resulting in a significant decline in demand, according to a paper by the World Cement Association (WCA). “The cement industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation,” explains WCA CEO Ian Riley. “As we move towards a decarbonized future, understanding the true demand for cement is critical to ensuring that policies, technologies and investments align with reality.” The white paper examines disruptive factors such as alternative materials. …The report challenges prevailing forecasts and projects demand for cement and clinker will dip, mainly due to the rise of timber, greater use of admixtures, the move towards decarbonization of the industry as well as design practices that will reduce the concrete used. ..According to the paper, timber has replaced concrete and steel in many highrise buildings but limitations on the supply of timber are expected to curb its growth.
The demand for sustainable, nontoxic furniture is rising as consumers become more conscious of their environmental impact and indoor air quality. While many brands claim to be “eco-friendly,” not all live up to the promise. From responsibly harvested wood to green packaging, truly sustainable furniture goes beyond marketing buzzwords. Understanding the end-to-end process of furniture manufacturing can help consumers make informed choices and avoid greenwashing. Interior designers play a crucial role in guiding homeowners toward authentic selections that prioritize longevity, health and environmental responsibility.
…More than 150 scientists and experts had collectively spent thousands of hours working on a draft report, a first-of-its-kind assessment of nature across the United States. But President Trump ended the effort, started under the Biden administration, by executive order. On Jan. 30, the project’s director, Phil Levin, sent an email telling team members that their work had been discontinued. But it wasn’t the only email he sent that day. “This work is too important to die,” Dr. Levin wrote in a separate email to the report’s authors, this one from his personal account. “The country needs what we are producing.” Now key experts who worked on the report, called the National Nature Assessment, are figuring out how to finish and publish it outside the government. …Rajat Panwar, a professor of responsible and sustainable business at Oregon State University who was leading the chapter on nature and the economy, was preparing slides to present his section when he got the news. 
SEATTLE — The termination letters that ended the careers of thousands of U.S. Forest Service employees mean fewer people and less resources will be available to help prevent and fight wildfires, raising the specter of even more destructive blazes across the American West, fired workers and officials said. The Forest Service firings …are part of a wave of federal worker layoffs, as President Donald Trump’s cost-cutting measures reverberate nationwide. Workers who maintained trails, removed combustible debris from forests, supported firefighters and secured funds for wildfire mitigation say staffing cuts threaten public safety, especially in the West, where drier and hotter conditions linked to climate change have increased the intensity of wildfires. …U.S. Rep. Kim Schrier, a Washington state Democrat, said on the social platform X that the Forest Service layoffs are already hurting the state, “and it is only going to get worse. Fire season is coming.”
Fewer wildfires occur in North American forests today than in past centuries, but this decline has increased the risk of more intense wildfires, according to a study published in Nature Communications. While it may seem unexpected, frequent low-intensity surface fires help maintain forest health by naturally reducing fuel buildup over large areas. Researchers from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and the U.S. Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station compared wildfire frequency across two periods: 1600 to 1880 and 1984 to 2022. Using data from 1,850 tree-ring records in historically burned areas, they assessed past fire activity and compared it with modern fire perimeter maps from Canada and the United States. The findings show modern-day fires are much less frequent than they were in past centuries, despite recent record-breaking fire years, such as 2020. 
PORTLAND, Ore. — An environmental nonprofit is sounding the alarm over the federal funding cuts and hiring freeze instituted by President Donald Trump’s administration, which it said could threaten the population of Oregon’s endangered spotted owl. The widespread layoffs and cuts instituted by the Trump administration have set off a series of protests across the country and around Portland, some of which have focused specifically on the thousands of U.S. National Parks and Forest Service workers who have been fired. The Northwest Forest Plan and the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) require the endangered owl population to be monitored, but the Center for Biological Diversity said in a news release that the federal freeze means the monitoring “either won’t occur or will be greatly reduced.”
There’s no two ways about it: the U.S. Forest Service is at an impasse, seized by uncertainty like hardly ever before. In its quest for a supposedly leaner, more decentralized government, the Trump administration, led by DOGE chieftain Elon Musk, is taking an ax to the federal workforce. The Forest Service in particular is hemorrhaging manpower: it was reported on Friday that Trump had pink-slipped 3,400 workers. That is roughly one-tenth of USFS personnel. “These cuts are particularly impactful for the Northwest because we have vast expanses of national forest and public land,” says Rep. Kim Schrier. However much the PNW has to lose, this is no mere regional issue. It’s an affront to Mother Nature herself, Schrier says, because “we’re taking away people who do what we call ‘wildfire mitigation’: they do the work that thins the forests to prevent catastrophic wildfires. They do that year-round so we aren’t choking on smoke all summer.”
Another 29,800 acres of timberland just got conserved under easement as working forest, the third phase in Columbia Land Trust’s project of protecting about 75,000 acres, sold by SDS lumber company in 2021. Columbia Land Trust hopes to conserve almost everything except the mill itself, buying the most important 15,000 acres of habitat outright. They hope to put the other 60,000 under conservation easements. In this case, Washington’s Department of Natural Resources will hold some of the rights over the 29,800 acres of land. It can be sold, but never developed; it must always remain working forest. This is the trust’s biggest project to date… SDS Lumber was the last family-owned, vertically-integrated (meaning it owned and operated most stages of its own supply chain) timber company in this part of the Northwest.
A group of scientists has been quietly working for decades on a project to improve tree genetics, with white oaks among the target species for the UT Tree Improvement Program. For those who are curious, genetics in organisms refers to the study of genes and how they are passed down from generation to generation. Genetics in trees, however, focuses on the study of genes within tree species and examines how their genetic makeup influences traits such as growth rate, wood quality, and resilience to environmental stresses. Scott Schlarbaum, a distinguished professor of forestry at UTIA, leads the UT Tree Improvement Program and is among the co-authors of the paper that describes the white oak genome and how local adaptations may have implications for the species in relation to heat and drought stress. Photo by A. Mains, courtesy UTIA.