Robert Dietz
The Trump 2.0 administration is underway and disruption is the word of the day in Washington, D.C. The new Trump team hit the ground running, with policy action expected in the areas of regulatory reform, a smaller and more efficient federal workforce, extension of the 2017 tax cuts, tariffs as revenue generators and negotiation tools, and more to come on immigration actions and a more secure border. The sheer breadth of policy actions is a lot for the economy to digest. These policies will offer home builders and remodelers both positive and negative risks in the months ahead. This dual set of risks has been reflected in financial markets, with stocks valuing the focus on growth and efficiency but the bond market reflecting inflation and budget deficit concerns. As a result, investors have pushed long-term interest rates higher since last fall, with the 10-year Treasury rate in the 4.5% to 4.6% range. Mortgage rates remain elevated near 7%.
NAHB projects more economic growth in the quarters ahead, albeit with some disruption in the presidential transition. There is a solid base to build on, with fourth quarter GDP growth coming in at a better-than-expected 2.3% annualized rate. Housing’s share of GDP registered at 16.2% at the end of 2024. The Federal Reserve is undecided on future risks to both inflation and unemployment and will likely hold the federal funds rate at the current top target of 4.5% until at least the third quarter. …However, home sales and building conditions will depend greatly on which policies are for negotiation (such as a proposed 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports) and which policies are intended to be long-term changes to the economy (regulatory reform, for example).Tariffs on Canadian lumber are a near-term concern, with the existing duty rate speculated to increase from a current 14.5% rate to near 30% later this summer.
WASHINGTON — Reports indicate that the B.C. Minister of Forests has created an “Advisory Council” to develop strategies for combating U.S. antidumping and countervailing duties. These duties are in place as a result of repeated findings by the U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. International Trade Commission that Canada’s egregious ongoing dumping practices and long-standing subsidies to its industry have caused havoc in the U.S. market. Andrew Miller, Chairman and Owner of Stimson Lumber, stated that “this is not a complicated issue. Canada must stop dumping its excess lumber production into the U.S. market and should stop subsidizing its industry instead of convening an ‘Advisory Council’ in British Columbia to study ways of getting around U.S. trade laws.”
A 30-day delay in implementation of tariffs on Canadian shipments to the US reset recent trends in framing lumber markets. Sales picked up in most regions and species, but higher quotes early in the week retreated nearer to last week’s levels. Western S-P-F sales were mixed, but several secondaries reported their strongest days of the year as buyers padded relatively thin inventories with insurance loads. Prices remained close to last week’s levels, but supplies of some items tightened in late trading. Lumber futures swung from extreme volatility Monday and Tuesday to an upward trend towards the end of the week. The threat of tariffs drove prices up, but selling commenced after the delay. The biggest gains were posted in green Fir, where a supply-side rally pushed Std/#2&Btr dimension prices $15-35 higher. The Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price posted another modest adjustment, finishing $5 higher. Most Southern Pine producers throttled back quotes.
The U.S. market accounts for 5-10% of Sweden’s forest industry exports, depending on the segment, meaning the direct impact of potential new tariffs remains limited, said Christian Nielsen, market analyst for wood products at Swedish Forest Industries Federation. The U.S. relies on imports for 25% of its lumber consumption, primarily from Canada. Higher tariffs on Canadian wood could raise costs for American consumers while improving the competitive position of European suppliers. However, Nielsen noted that future tariffs directly targeting EU exports remain uncertain. In the pulp and paper sector, the U.S. could rely entirely on domestic production, reducing the need for imports. Sweden currently exports 7% of its pulp and 5% of its paper and board products to the US. In total, Sweden exports 92% of its paper and board production, and global trade flows could be affected by tariff changes. [END]
Year-end 2024 Southern Pine lumber (treated and untreated) exports hit 565.7 Mbf, which was up 11% over the previous year, according to December 2024 data from the USDA. On a monthly basis, Southern Pine lumber exports were up 21.9% in December 2024 over the same month in 2023 but down 2.2% from November 2024. …Softwood imports, meanwhile, were down 11.5% in December 2024 compared with the same month a year ago and down 11% from November 2024. …Mexico remains the largest export market (by volume) of Southern Pine and treated lumber, up 23% over 2023 with 150.2 Mbf of imports. The Dominican Republic, the No. 2 importer of Southern Pine, ended the year 19.1% ahead of 2023 with 92.3 Mbf. India’s total of SYP imports ended 3.1% ahead of last year with 36.6 Mbf. Canada: up 30% with 27.4 Mbf in 2024. Canada ended the year as the No. 5 importer of Southern Pine lumber (treated and untreated).
Ending the forced use of paper straws: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order to end the procurement and forced use of paper straws. The Federal government is directed to stop purchasing paper straws and ensure they are no longer provided within Federal buildings. The Order requires the development of a National Strategy to End the Use of Paper Straws within 45 days to alleviate the forced use of paper straws nationwide. Bringing back common sense: The irrational campaign against plastic straws has forced Americans to use nonfunctional paper straws. This ends under President Trump. …President Trump has made it a top priority to promote a clean and healthy environment for the American people.
U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff is introducing a bipartisan bill to help grow Georgia’s forestry industry. Sen. Ossoff and Sen. Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA) introduced the bipartisan Forest Data Modernization Act, which would modernize and improve the U.S. Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis program to ensure reliable data is available to inform forest management decision making. The bipartisan bill would require the Forest Service to prepare an updated strategic plan to expand data collection and further integrate advanced remote sensing technology. According to the forestry industry, the improvements would unlock new economic opportunities for foresters and better protect the environment. The companion bipartisan bill is being introduced by Representatives Kim Schrier (D-WA-08) and Barry Moore (R-AL-01) in the U.S. House of Representatives …“The Georgia Forestry Association (GFA) commends Senators Ossoff and Cassidy for their bipartisan leadership in re-introducing the Forest Data Modernization Act.
Washington D.C.–The Sustainable Forestry Initiative (SFI) is proud to announce a groundbreaking new project to advance climate smart forestry practices across the United States, supported by a generous investment of over $800,000 from the Doris Duke Foundation. The project, Advancing Carbon Stewardship Practices for Large Landowners in the United States, will use a forest sector-focused approach to advance forest management and conservation activities to both enhance the carbon sink and reduce sources of emissions from forests. Forests … are experiencing increased frequency and severity of fire, drought, pest outbreaks, and disease—all of which negatively impact forest and community health, economic development, and resiliency while threatening our safety. “We are so thankful for this investment from the Doris Duke Foundation to leverage our network, scale, and the SFI Forest Management Standard, which includes progressive requirements on climate and fire,” said Kathy Abusow, President and CEO of SFI. 
WASHINGTON – A bipartisan group of lawmakers has introduced the Future Logging Careers Act, a bill aimed at allowing teenagers from logging families to gain early hands-on experience in the industry under parental supervision. The legislation, introduced by U.S. Senators Jim Risch (R-Idaho) and Angus King (I-Maine), along with U.S. Representatives Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine), would amend the Fair Labor Standards Act to permit 16- and 17-year-olds to work in certain mechanized logging operations. Similar exemptions currently exist for youth working in family-owned farms. Supporters of the bill, including the American Loggers Council and the Associated Logging Contractors of Idaho, argue that the measure would help sustain family-run logging businesses by allowing younger generations to gain experience before entering the workforce as adults. Industry representatives have pointed to labor shortages and the challenges of retaining workers as key reasons for the bill’s introduction.
Senator Mike Rounds has re-introduced a bill that would require National Forest superintendents to submit remediation plans if their timber production falls well below the allowable amounts laid out in forest plans. The remediation plans would be required to bring timber production in the respective forests back to at least 75% of their allowable amounts. Rounds says timber production in the Black Hills has far below its allowable 181,000 units. “Three years ago, we did about 80,000, the year before last we did about 60,000, and we’re down to about 59,000 units this year, and so the bottom line is not even a third of what we should be harvesting in the Black Hills is actually being done,” Rounds said. “But it also means some of those forests that could be more properly managed, based upon their own plan are not being harvested, the plan is not being followed,” Rounds said.
The State of New York last week announced the launch of two new interactive tools for recording and tracking the number of trees planted as part of a climate initiative to reach 25 million trees by 2033. Developed by the state’s Department of Environmental Conservation and its Office of Information Technology Services, the Tree Tracker allows state agencies and private organizations and individuals to report the number and location of trees planted, as well as planting dates, species and tree size. “New York is taking decisive action to protect our environment and strengthen communities’ ability to withstand severe weather,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said in the press release. “Our progress toward the 25 Million Tree goal is a testament to the power of community-driven action, and the new Tree Tracker will make it easier for New Yorkers to track our progress, share updates and contribute to a healthier environment for the future.”
The Government has announced a new support mechanism for sustainable biomass generation post-2027. From 2027, Drax and other eligible large-scale biomass generators will be supported via a lowcarbon dispatchable CfD (Contract for Difference). If approved, the plan will keep the power station running until 2031. Under this proposed agreement, Drax Power Station can step in to increase generation when there isn’t enough electricity, helping to avoid the need to use more gas or import power from Europe. When there’s too much electricity on the UK grid, Drax can reduce generation, helping to balance the system. Importantly, the mechanism will result in a net saving for consumers. …The agreement also prioritises biomass sustainability. Drax supports these developments and will continue to engage with the UK Government on the implementation of any future reporting requirements.
The UK government has agreed a new funding arrangement with the controversial wood-burning Drax power station that it says will cut subsidies in half. …The new agreement will run from 2027 to 2031 and will see the power station only used as a back-up to cheaper renewable sources of power. …The government says the company currently receives nearly a billion pounds a year in subsidies and and predicts that figure will more than halve to £470m under the new deal. …The new agreement also states that 100% of the wood pellets Drax burns must be “sustainably sourced” and that “material sourced from primary and old growth forests” will not be able to receive support payments. All the pellets Drax burns are imported, with most of them coming from the USA and Canada. BBC has previously reported that Drax held logging licences in British Columbia, and used wood, including whole trees, from primary forests for its pellets.
Can you fly airplanes with wood? The answer is: yes. It’s a very qualified “yes” — and it may not happen for many years — but the potential exists to manufacture sustainable aviation fuel from residual wood products and other non-petroleum-based sources that can reduce an airplane’s carbon footprint. “The technology to fly airplanes with wood exists but needs to be scaled up to show the true potential,” Rick Horton, executive vice president of Minnesota Forest Industries, told the House Agriculture Finance and Policy Committee at an informational hearing Monday. Horton was one of several testifiers who said using sustainable aviation fuel to power airplanes is in its infancy and needs large-scale development — and probably government subsidies — to make it economically viable… Sustainable aviation fuel currently costs two to five times more than conventional jet fuel.