
Kevin Mason
At the Global Wood Summit last week, Zoltan van Heyningen, Executive Director of the U.S. Lumber Coalition, shared the U.S. perspective on the softwood lumber file. Zoltan emphasized that duties are a legal process stemming from administration of U.S. trade law and are distinct from tariffs, which are policy driven trade action. As such, the imposition of duties on Canadian lumber imports is not a policy debate, it is a legal process. Functionally a “Trump tariff” could be in addition to duties. From the U.S. perspective, the softwood lumber trade case has been extremely effective. According to the Coalition, since the case was filed in 2016: Canadian mills have accounted for 74% of curtailments and 60% of mill closures by capacity… and U.S. operating rates are now consistently higher than in Canada, a deviation from historical norms. …In Washington, the softwood lumber case is seen as a poster child demonstrating the positive impact of trade law enforcement on domestic industry.
Our Take: Mr. van Heyningen was very clear regarding the disposition of duties that have been collected—the majority won’t be treated any differently than other duties collected by U.S. Customs and would be liquidated into the Treasury. Trade deals, such as the prior Softwood Lumber Agreement, are very rare, but the door remains open for a negotiated settlement. However, there has to be “something in it” for the U.S. Coalition (and its members). We suspect that 10 cents on the dollar will not suffice this time around as Canadians have a weaker hand this time if/when negotiations commence. …We do not foresee pricing remaining in this upward trend through year-end and into 2025, and a seasonal slowdown in demand after U.S. Thanksgiving should precipitate a pullback in pricing later this quarter. However, supply and demand are clearly better matched today than they have been at any point over the past couple of years.




President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to impose sweeping new tariffs on imports, leading his critics to argue that the plan will raise prices and spur inflation. …Nearly 10% of building materials used in residential construction are imported, according to the NAHB… and Canada probably accounts for the bulk of those imports. “Any tariffs that raise the cost of building products will have a detrimental effect on housing affordability,” says NAHB CEO Jim Tobin. ….A steep tariff on Canadian lumber would likely hit homebuilders the hardest—and could raise the prices of new homes, at least temporarily. But observers are skeptical that Trump would impose a steep, immediate tariff on such a fundamental raw material imported from a close ally. NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that it’s possible any tariff on lumber could be imposed over a ramp-up period to allow U.S. timber mills to boost production.
The uptick in fuel prices will likely be temporary, said Ken Simonson, chief economist at the Associated General Contractors of America. However, the broader uncertainty tied to potential trade policy changes under the incoming Trump administration presents a new layer of unpredictability for contractors. …Future prices for crude oil and copper, typically reliable predictors of upcoming producer price index shifts, have recently declined. That indicates the potential for a near-term dip in energy input costs, he said. Contractors have largely benefited from input price stabilization in 2024. As of October, contractors expect their profit margins to expand through the first quarter of 2025. …“The next administration’s trade policy increases uncertainty regarding construction material costs,” said Basu. “Beyond the implications of potential tariffs, input prices may rise in the short term if purchasers rush to import materials prior to the implementation of those policies.”
WASHINGTON – US single-family homebuilding tumbled in October as Hurricanes Helene and Milton depressed activity in the South and permits rose slightly, suggesting that a rebound was likely to be muted by higher mortgage rates. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, plunged 6.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 970,000 units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Tuesday. Data for September was revised higher to show homebuilding rising to a rate of 1.042 million units from the previously reported pace of 1.027 million units. Single-family starts dropped 10.2% in the South. Permits for future construction of single-family housing gained 0.5% to a rate of 968,000 units. …Mortgage rates initially fell as the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates in September. They have, however, erased that decline on strong economic data and concerns that Trump’s policies could reignite inflation.





The global market for mass timber is expected to grow to $3.7 billion by 2032 from $1.5 billion in 2020, according to 2023 report. This growth is being driven by the US, Europe and Asia-Pacific building construction industries. Hyperlocal approaches to creating a mass timber industry are already taking shape around the world. …In North America,
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Forest Service has committed over $265 million to conserve nearly 335,000 acres of important forestlands across 17 states. This investment, supported by President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, is part of the Forest Legacy Program and aims to protect working forests that contribute to rural economies. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack emphasized that these forests provide clean water, habitats, recreation, and jobs, but face threats from development. “This investment is key to keeping the economic, social, and ecological benefits these forests provide,” Vilsack said. Since 2021, the USDA has invested $758 million in conserving more than 500,000 acres. Major projects include the Pee Dee Basin Initiative in South Carolina, the largest land conservation project in state history, and Washington’s Stimson Timberland Legacy Project, which conserves nearly 88,000 acres.
IDAHO — Deep in Idaho’s Clearwater Mountains, along the beautiful Lochsa River, is a stand of ancient cedar trees. These trees stand hundreds of feet tall and are hundreds of years old. They were standing long before Europeans arrived in these mountains. …It’s no accident that these old cedar trees are still standing. They remain standing because they are on public lands. Public lands, in which every American has a stake. Surrounding forests, not on public lands, tell a far different story. …Idaho sold off about one third of the land it received from the federal government upon statehood. …We in the West know what state or private ownership means for forests. Stumps, and lots of them. Both entities manage forests to maximize dollars generated. In contrast, public lands mean trees hundreds of years old, superb wildlife habitat, clear, clean water, and unmatched recreation opportunities. And our heritage.
IDAHO, USA — Placerville is nestled behind Bogus Basin, in the Boise National Forest. The town of 53 is known for its forest solitude – but that isn’t what home insurance companies are looking for. Resident Steve Koppes was dropped from his home insurance company a year and half ago, because his home was in a wildfire-prone area. “I didn’t get notification, I didn’t get reasons. I was just dropped,” Koppes said. Koppes had had the same insurance for years, and never had a claim of any kind. …Each city is ranked on a scale by the Idaho Insurance Ratings Bureau, and Placerville has sat at a level eight since 2010. “The higher the number, the worse off you are,” Placerville Fire Chief Andrew Bourett said. He has done everything he could to make that rating lower – to make getting home insurance easier – but it’s a challenge because of Placerville’s remote location.
The U.S. Forest Service has released its long-awaited proposal to update the landmark Northwest Forest Plan, but many groups said they were unsure of its future with a new administration coming to power in 2025. The document, years in the making, lays out four alternatives for future management of national forests in Washington, Oregon and California by updating a 1994 law crafted by the Clinton administration. The 630,000-acre Siuslaw National Forest along the central Oregon coast would be heavily affected by any decisions laid out in a final plan. A 120-day public comment period begins now, which the agency says will help shape a final plan. “Much has changed in society and science since the Northwest Forest Plan was created nearly 30 years ago,” said Jacque Buchanan, regional forester for the Forest Service’s Pacific Northwest Region. “We’re amending the plan to address today’s challenges [honoring the] original goals, while enhancing wildfire resilience.”
PORT ANGELES — Tree advocates have been partially successful in postponing the logging of forests owned by the state Department of Natural Resources and located within the Elwha watershed region, and they plan to continue their efforts until they achieve full success. At the November Board of Natural Resources (BNR) meeting, Hilary Franz, state commissioner of public lands and chair of the board, placed a pause on the Elwha Watershed “Alley Cat” timber sale. Franz said she pulled the sale from the agenda due to a conversation she had with Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe chairwoman Frances Charles and the desire to have “government-to-government consideration.” Despite advocacy efforts that included a petition with more than 300 signatures and a letter-writing campaign that generated more than 6,165 letters, the six-person BNR approved two other Elwha watershed sales, “Tree Well” and “Parched.” Individuals against those sales said that the “legacy forests” were the “old growth forests of tomorrow.”
The last decade’s economic, social, and environmental changes have affected the production, consumption, prices, and trade of forest products.
The Shoe Fire that burned more than 5,000 acres north of Lake Shasta was caused by a landowner who lost control of an unpermitted burn that he was doing on his own property, the U.S. Forest Service said. The fire started on Oct. 9 before it was finally contained on Nov. 9. An investigation determined the fire started within a meadow on private land before it spread to adjacent properties and National Forest lands, the Forest Service posted on its Facebook page. Forest Service spokesman Tom Stokesberry said the man has been cited for violations of federal law. He did not know the specific charges. The Forest Service also did not release the name of the landowner. …Cost to suppress the fire reached is an estimated $42.5 million, according to the National Interagency Fire Center’s situation report.
Crews with the New Jersey Forest Fire Service are fighting a wildfire in Ocean County. Officials say that the fire is near Pine Park and the Lakewood Country Club in Lakewood. As of Monday evening, the fire is impacting 33 acres of land and is 20% contained. Officials say that no buildings are in danger because of this fire. They previously stated that six buildings were threatened. No evacuation orders have been given. …The fire comes as New Jersey experiences a record-breaking dry spell. There is currently a drought warning in effect. Officials say that New Jersey is in a Stage 3 fire restriction because of drought conditions. According to the state Forest Fire Service, crews have responded to over 500 wildfires since October. They say that this is over a 1,300% increase in wildfires over the same time last year.