VANCOUVER — David Eby appears to be ready to put B.C. on a trade war footing in response to American tariff threats, with an arsenal that includes supporting federal taxes and bans on exports, like critical minerals, and bolstering B.C.’s energy and resource sector to make it more competitive by accelerating permitting for energy and resource projects, and reforming government programs like BC Timber Sales. No industry in Canada understands the negative impact of American duties and tariffs better than the B.C. forestry sector, which has been labouring under American duties on softwood lumber for nearly a decade now. Eby said he would encourage the Canadian government to respond to the tariffs with taxes and bans on key exports.
B.C. forestry companies already pay an average of 14.4% in duties on lumber exports to the U.S., and they could double next year. It’s unclear whether the 25 per cent tariffs Trump has threatened would be additive to existing duties. …Forestry companies in B.C. face an even stiffer tariff of sorts right here at home, in the form of regulatory burdens, including policies that have restricted access to timber, and stumpage charges that can make the available timber uneconomic to cut. …He suggested some relief may be on the way for resource industries in B.C. …One key reform will be to BC Timber Sales. Eby has struck a new task force with the mandate of overhauling it.
BC Timber Sales accounts for about 20% of the timber harvested from Crown lands, and uses auctioning to establish market pricing in order to set the rates (stumpage) charged to forestry companies to harvest timber on Crown lands. Forestry companies have complained that the rates are often too high, not responsive enough to lumber price swings, and can make it uneconomic to harvest timber, even when it is available for harvest. …“The elaborate process that we go through with B.C. Timber Sales in order to appease the Americans on softwood lumber duties has absolutely not done that,” he said. “The tariffs continue, the tariffs. …“Obviously, now, in the context of 25% across-the-board tariffs – we are in a trade war with the United States – that anxiety goes away.”
On Day 1 of the Truck Loggers Association 80th Annual Convention, Russ Taylor and Don Wright tackled the pressing question:
With President-elect Trump set to take over the Oval Office on January 20, the Canadian lumber industry looks to be taking action… advising customers that they will add 25% to lumber exports to the US when the tariff is announced. With Canadian mills already paying an average of 14.4% import duties on US shipments, they have no alternative but to increase prices by the 25% to cover the potential tariff. Nic Wilson, CEO of the Denver Mass Timber Group Summit reports that… “
BC could face severe economic consequences from president-elect Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on Canadian imports. The province projects a cumulative economic loss of $69 billion over four years, with real GDP potentially declining by 0.6% annually in 2025 and 2026. The BC. Ministry of Finance, estimates significant job losses and revenue reductions during this period, with the unemployment rate possibly increasing to 6.7% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026. The tariff’s effects on the labor market could result in 124,000 job losses by 2028, with the most affected sectors being natural resources, manufacturing, transportation, and retail. Corporate profits could decrease annually by $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion. …Experts indicate that the tariffs could disrupt the US lumber supply chain. Rajan Parajuli, an NC State University professor, said that… US lumber producers might profit from higher prices, consumers would face increased costs if demand remains steady. The Peterson Institute for International Economics notes that these tariffs could extend beyond Canada, impacting the broader wood product sector.
The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau announced that he will hold a Cabinet retreat in the Outaouais region, Quebec, from January 20 to 21, 2025. With the threats of tariffs from the incoming United States administration, Cabinet will protect and defend Canadian interests, strengthen Canada’s relationship with the U.S., and make unequivocally clear the mutually beneficial trade and security relationship the two countries share. Cabinet will build on Canada’s strong relationship with its closest ally to advance shared priorities. This includes bolstering cross-border trade, reinforcing our supply chains, and creating jobs on both sides of the border. Canada’s recent $1.3 billion border security plan is a testament to our commitment to the shared security and prosperity of Canadians and Americans alike.
Nicolas Schmitt, an economics professor at SFU, highlighted that the province’s economy has shifted from a goods-based to a service-driven model. He said this transition has made the economy more diversified and resilient. With key regions like Vancouver and the Okanagan Valley showing strong growth in service sectors, B.C. is well-positioned to withstand global economic uncertainties and to continue thriving. “This war might affect more interior B.C. than urban B.C. That is a potential problem for the interior. Where those lumber mines and all those goods are being exported. So that creates an urban rural divide.” In a statement provided by Kurt Niquidet president of the B.C. Lumber Trade Council, he said federal parties must collaborate to tackle the ongoing softwood lumber duties and the potential imposition of further tariffs. …While B.C.’s diversified economy offers resilience, the potential impacts on industries like lumber, especially in rural areas, require attention. 
U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s increasingly bold threats against Canada’s economy and sovereignty suggest “there’s something dangerous brewing” and a serious response is needed, a U.S. analyst says. David Frum, a staff writer at The Atlantic who has covered U.S. politics for decades, doesn’t believe Trump actually wants to make Canada a U.S. state, but says the fact the incoming president keeps repeating that idea means he’s eying some kind of aggressive action. …Frum said Canadians should brace for that “tariff aggression,” which Trump can pursue with several unilateral actions, including declaring a national emergency to justify them. He added Canada will also be impacted by Trump’s aggression toward Latin American allies, particularly Mexico. Canada may also soon see the arrival of thousands of people fearing deportation from the U.S. seeking refuge from Trump’s pledged crackdown on illegal residents and immigration, Frum said.
Advisors on Trump’s incoming economic team are considering a gradual implementation of tariffs, increasing them incrementally each month. This approach is intended to strengthen their negotiating position while minimizing the risk of sudden inflation, according to sources familiar with the discussions. One concept involves a plan to raise tariffs by 2% to 5% per month, using executive powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The idea is still in its early stages and has not yet been formally presented to Trump, indicating that the strategy is in the initial phase of consideration. Trump has not yet approved of the plan. Supporters include Trump advisors Bessent, Haslett and Miran. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]
Lumber prices surged to around $580 per thousand board feet in January, marking a six-week high, as uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber imports to the U.S. stoked panic buying. The looming 25% tariff proposed by President-elect Trump has prompted U.S. buyers to rapidly secure inventories ahead of anticipated price hikes, further escalating demand. With Canadian lumber already subject to an average 14.4% import duty, the additional tariff is expected to push prices even higher. U.S. reliance on Canadian softwood lumber remains substantial, as Canada supplies a significant portion of the country’s lumber needs. While alternative suppliers, such as Germany and Sweden, may partially fill the gap, they lack the capacity to match Canada’s production in the long run. Meanwhile, domestic challenges, including workforce shortages and sawmill closures, are limiting U.S. production, contributing to ongoing supply constraints. [END]
The mere threat of tariffs being tacked onto Canadian lumber imports in the U.S. is raising fears of panic buying that could roil lumber markets and prices. “A number of Canadian lumber companies are now advising customers that they will add 25% to lumber exports to the U.S. when the tariff is announced,” 
A potential hike in tariffs imposed on Canadian exports to the US as early as January will highlight developments that could define first-quarter trends in the softwood lumber market. …Many traders have expressed a perception that the US economy will prosper in 2025 with a more business friendly administration in the White House. However, if the tariffs are imposed, they could significantly alter the flow of softwood lumber and panels from Canada to the US. Some Canadian producers have already noted that they will withdraw from the US market rather than deal with the rising costs. If returns on shipments to the US plunge, many Canadian mills could funnel a larger percentage of production offshore, especially to Pacific Rim destinations. …Southern Pine traders hope the first quarter sets the stage for a rebound after a difficult year in 2024. Production outpaced demand for most of the year, sustaining steady downward pressure on prices.
Predictions for 2025 include: Energy output will jump… we’ll stop talking about hybrid work… maybe… the education boom will end… the north will struggle to retain population… we’ll stop ignoring the provincial deficit. …The outlook for f
AUSTRALIA — A war of words – and glossy brochures – has flared up in the scientific world over whether Western Australia’s major prescribed-burning program across the forests of its south-west is doing more harm than good. The South-West Forests Defence Foundation launched its publication Prescribed Burning Fact Sheets – August 2024 outlining scientific research arguing current prescribed burning practices in the south-west forest regions does not give effective protection from wildfires, is hazardous to people’s health and is causing irreversible loss of biodiversity. The foundation favours a rapid detection and suppression response to bushfires. …In response, the Bushfire Front advocacy group has released its own pamphlet critiquing the foundation’s “flawed” proposal, saying it’s not based on sound science and would have disastrous outcomes in the event of a major bushfire. It states… that the response-only method was trialled and failed in the early 1900s.
Firefighters in southern California are battling the Palisades and Eaton Fires. …Residents of many fire-prone areas have grown familiar with the orange, apocalyptic haze of wildfire smoke as these blazes have become more common because of climate change. Such smoke can contain an unpredictable cocktail of chemicals associated with heart and lung diseases and even cancer, which is the leading cause of death among firefighters. Here’s what makes wildfire smoke so dangerous. When trees, shrubbery and other organic matter burn, they release carbon dioxide, water, heat—and, depending on the available fuel, various volatile compounds, gaseous pollutants and particulate matter. Those tiny particles, which become suspended in the air, can include soot (black carbon), metals, dust, and more. If they’re smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter, they can evade our body’s natural defenses when inhaled, penetrating deep into the lungs and triggering a wide variety of health problems.
PACIFIC PALISADES, California − Firefighters were progressing in their battle against two massive wildfires as winds eased early Thursday, bringing a respite to frustrated and beleaguered residents across Los Angeles County who have been on edge for over a week. All “particularly dangerous situation” red flag warnings largely expired by Wednesday night without causing any significant fire growth, according to the National Weather Service. But dry conditions and locally gusty winds were forecast to linger into Thursday − particularly in the mountains, the weather service warned. According to the weather services, temperatures were also expected to drop five to 10 degrees below normal for the remainder of the week, and Friday is predicted to be the coldest. “Good news,” the weather service’s Los Angeles office said. “Bad News: Next week is a concern. While confident that we will NOT see a repeat of last week, dangerous fire weather conditions are expected.”