Kelly McCloskey
We reached out to Robert McKellar at Harmattan Risk in August 2024 for comment on the increasing pace of change in the forest sector, shaped by political forces and government intervention. Robert’s op-ed offered a thoughtful analysis of how inherent political risks—especially those linked to Canada–US trade friction—could rapidly unsettle an industry long reliant on stability. At the time, Trump’s potential political comeback was still largely speculative. Since that op-ed, the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Trump’s re-emergence is no longer a remote possibility but a concrete reality that has intensified uncertainty across the sector. With these developments in mind, we reconnected with Robert to update his analysis and explore how the risks he foresaw have become even more pronounced. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]
Donald Trump has ordered a probe into dumping in the US lumber market, setting the stage for the industry to join the widening basket of commodities targeted by Washington’s global trade war. The president directed the Department of Commerce to investigate whether imports of lumber and wood products were undermining domestic loggers in a way that posed a risk to US national security, days after ordering a similar review of the copper industry. …Forestry is big business for Canada. In 2022, the sector contributed C$33.4bn to real GDP, or about 1.2%. In the same year Canada’s forest product exports were valued at C$45.6bn, with the majority destined for the US. …Derek Nighbor, FPAC president, said any increase in tariffs on lumber would hurt forest sector employees on both sides of the border. …But Andrew Miller, chair of the US Lumber Coalition, said: “Canada’s unfair trade comes at the direct expense of US companies and workers.”
US President Trump on Saturday 
WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump said again Wednesday he plans to hit Canada and Mexico with devastating duties — but a White House official confirmed on background that the tariff plans could change through negotiations. …He signed an executive order to implement “reciprocal tariffs” by raising U.S. duties to match the tax rates that other countries charge on imports starting April 2. He ordered 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States on March 12. Trump also floated the idea of imposing tariffs on automobiles and forest products in April. …Trump himself seems to be having a hard time keeping track of his massive tariff agenda. …Many experts say Trump’s actions are intended to shake up Canada and Mexico ahead of a review of the continental trade pact. The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement was negotiated during the first Trump administration to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. 
Yesterday, we featured an op-ed by political risk management expert Robert McKellar on how Donald Trump’s re-election is changing the political risk landscape for the Canadian forest sector. While U.S. trade disputes are not new, the unpredictability of Trump’s approach to trade policy creates new challenges that Canadian exporters must assess and manage. McKellar presents a structured way to evaluate these risks using the devil’s advocacy approach, a method that considers both worst- and best-case scenarios to develop a balanced assessment. Trump has proposed three different types of tariffs—bi-national, product-specific, and reciprocal—which, if applied together, could significantly impact the sector. By examining multiple possibilities, McKellar provides companies with a way to better prepare for potential disruptions rather than reacting in crisis mode. And as today’s 
The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated the 
The Trump administration has opened a broad new front in its global trade conflict, proposing to affix levies reaching $1.5 million on Chinese-made ships arriving at American ports. Such fees would apply even on vessels made elsewhere — an approach that risks increasing costs on raw materials to factory goods. …It is engineered to discourage reliance on Chinese vessels in supplying Americans with products, while aiming to spur the revival of a domestic shipbuilding industry after a half-century of veritable dormancy. …The proposal would isolate China while diminishing American reliance on its industry. …The plan was the result of an investigation, started during the Biden administration, into the dominance of the Chinese shipping industry, in response to a petition filed by labor unions. Almost one-fifth of container vessels arriving at American ports are made in China. [to access the full story a NY Times subscription is required]
NEKOOSA, Wisconsin — Partnering with Omya, a producer of essential minerals, the mill built an on-site plant to ensure a reliable source of precipitated calcium carbonate, a key papermaking ingredient. The new PCC plant came online in September 2024, solving several supply challenges. …In 2020, the PCC plant that supplied multiple Wisconsin paper mills, including Domtar’s Rothschild and Nekoosa facilities, closed. …Domtar and Omya researched constructing a four-story PCC plant at the Nekoosa mill. …In July 2022, the companies agreed to build a 27,500 dry-ton-per-year Omya-designed, owned and -operated PCC plant within the Nekoosa mill’s existing footprint. …“By executing this high-ROI, three-year project with a strategic partner, Nekoosa now has an unlimited supply of PCC on-site that allows for flexibility in our papermaking schedules and effective grade development,” says Jason McCauley, Nekoosa mill general manager.
The week-to-week framing lumber composite price increased 1.6% on Feb. 21, 2025, rising to $453 per 1,000 board feet. Lumber prices are now 15.6% higher than they were one year ago. …Softwood lumber prices have been especially volatile in recent years largely because of increased demand, rising tariffs, supply-chain bottlenecks and insufficient domestic production. …Surveys conducted by Home Innovation Research Labs show that the average new single-family home uses more than 2,200 square feet of softwood plywood, and more than 6,800 of OSB, in addition to roughly 15,000 board feet of framing lumber. Softwood lumber is also an input into certain manufactured products used in residential construction — especially cabinets, windows, doors and trusses. …As explained in NAHB’s study on regulatory costs, the final home price will increase by nearly 15% above the builder’s cost. The bottom line is that changes in softwood lumber prices directly impact the price of a new home. 
Lumber futures surpassed $630 per thousand board feet in February, the highest since October 2022, amid tariff concerns and tightening supply. U.S. President Trump reaffirmed Monday that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports remain “on time and on schedule,” despite both nations’ efforts to bolster border security and curb fentanyl flows ahead of the March 4th deadline. The National Association of Home Builders warned that higher tariffs on lumber and gypsum could push prices up 40%, worsening affordability and slowing the housing market’s recovery. Meanwhile, U.S. building permits edged up 0.1%, signaling stability, while housing starts plunged 9.8%, pointing to near-term weakness. 
If the Trump administration follows through, the impact on economies across the U.S. will be extensive, and it will vary greatly from state to state. …CNBC looked at the exposure of all 50 states on a country-by-country basis. …The 10 states that have the highest percentage of imports from Canada are: Montana (92%), Maine (69.4%), Vermont (68%), North Dakota (64%), Wyoming (55%), Oklahoma (51%), West Virginia (44%), South Dakota (41%), Minnesota (38%), and Colorado (31%). Energy was the top-dollar import from Canada for all states. The amount of oil imported from Canada is staggering. For example, the value of the oil that Montana imports from Canada — $4.9 billion — is more than 10 times the value of the state’s next biggest import. U.S. states facing exports retaliatory risk. …Looking at the top 10 states that export to Canada, North Dakota topped the list (82%), followed by Maine (49%), Montana (46%), South Dakota (44%), Michigan (43%), Ohio (39%), West Virginia (38%), Idaho (37%), Missouri (37%), and Vermont (34%).
MONTREAL — Stella-Jones announced financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024. Sales for the fourth quarter of 2024 amounted to $730 million, up 6% from sales of $688 million for the same period in 2023. …Net income for the period amounted to $52 million compared with $56 million in the corresponding period of 2023. …Sales for the year ended December 31, 2024 reached $3,469 million, up 5%, versus sales of $3,319 million in 2023. Net income in 2024 was $319 million, compared to net income of $326 million in 2023. Despite the lower net income, earnings per share in 2024 was higher at $5.66 versus $5.62 in 2023 due to the continued repurchase of shares. …Eric Vachon, CEO of Stella-Jones, “We achieved solid results in our infrastructure product categories, even in the face of softer market demand. We acquired new customers, maintained our expanded EBITDA margin of over 18%, and delivered strong operating cashflows.”
Home Depot’s CFO said people are “moving on” from today’s high mortgage rates and have started investing more in their homes. The home improvement company reported strong fourth-quarter results, although CEO Ted Decker said consumers are still reluctant to make larger investments like a kitchen remodel. Experts say people may start to view today’s mortgage rates as normal, especially when compared to historic rates. …“Housing is still frozen by mortgage rates,” Richard McPhail, said. Yet McPhail said Home Depot, which reported strong Q4 results Tuesday, has seen sales growth in nearly 80% of its U.S. geographic regions. …For Q4, 2024, Home Depot saw a 14.1% year-over-year increase in sales, which “exceeded our expectations,” Ted Decker CEO, said. …“We saw greater engagement in home improvement spend, despite ongoing pressure on large remodeling projects,” Decker said
President Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill.” Now, he also wants to log. 
Chronically understaffed, the service was already under a Biden-era hiring freeze, all the while on the front lines of fighting and recovering from back-to-back climate disasters across the country. …For now, workers with the Forest Service fear this is a turning point for public lands and what they mean in the United States. …In the South, forest workers played a key role in helping western North Carolina recover from impacts of Hurricane Helene. In the West, they’re taking on fire risk mitigation and fighting wildfires. They’re also involved in fisheries management in Alaska. …A spokesperson with the USDA said the new agricultural secretary, Brooke Rollins, supported Trump’s directive to cut spending and inefficiencies while strengthening the department’s services. “As part of this effort, USDA has made the difficult decision to release about 2,000 probationary, non-firefighting employees from the Forest Service. To be clear, none of these individuals were operational firefighters.”
Polarization is gripping the country and the centre isn’t holding, Environment and Climate Change Canada found when setting the country’s latest emissions reduction target. The department solicited feedback… to determine what Canada’s internationally binding 2035 pollution reduction obligations should be. …The results found that overcoming polarization is a major hurdle to implementing aggressive emissions reductions that climate scientists say is required to avoid catastrophic warming. About two-thirds of Canadians who participated support stronger measures to address climate change. “There was little middle ground, and very few people were satisfied with the status quo,” according to the findings. …When asked if the federal government is doing enough to fight climate change, 47% believe Canada needs to do more, compared to 36% that feel existing measures go too far. …Polarization is gripping the country and the centre isn’t holding, Environment and Climate Change Canada found when setting the country’s latest emissions reduction target.
