Kevin Mason
As we begin to think about our 2026 forecasts, we (and the market) are challenged by the declining quality of information. Across geographies and sectors, both the quantity and quality of stats have been deteriorating over the past few years, reducing the market’s ability to understand the present context and the future outlook. …At the same time, the need for quality and timely stats is greater than ever. The full impact of seismic changes in global free and fair trade is still unfolding. Commercial pivots take time given pre-tariff inventory builds, contracts, and buyer familiarity and preference. …Producers also lack confidence, impacting the willingness to invest in (or close) assets that drive our supply/demand models. Finally, we worry about investor confidence, as assessing an appropriate risk-weighted return is much more difficult in the current environment.
As a result of the ongoing US government shutdown, much of the regular housing data (starts, permits, etc.) have not been published this month, meaning that we are flying blind, to an extent, in terms of US housing analysis. However, based upon recent solid-wood pricing trends and commentary from industry contacts, there is little to suggest that the US housing market has shown any improvement in the past few weeks. With a seasonally slower period for housing demand and homebuilding activity approaching very quickly, we are unlikely to see any marked improvement in US housing before next spring (at the earliest). …While the US housing market may see some minor tailwinds from improving affordability over the coming months, that boost to housing (and wood products) demand could be more than offset by the negative impacts of the ongoing government shutdown.
VANCOUVER — Politicians from B.C. and Ottawa will meet in Vancouver today for a forestry summit on how to prop up the industry in the face of American fees and tariffs topping 50 per cent. Federal politicians including Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, along with B.C. Premier David Eby and his forests and jobs ministers, are set to discuss ways to support workers and businesses being hammered by the increased fees. In September, the Americans imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian companies ranging from 26 per cent to more than 47 per cent, and then added another 10 per cent last month, claiming Canada’s industry is a U.S. national security threat. B.C.’s goal for the summit is to push for more federal help for the industry that employs tens of thousands of workers in the province. The softwood lumber dispute has been a friction point for decades.
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump’s tariff agenda is set to face a major legal hurdle in the US Supreme Court this week but no matter the ruling, it will not spare Canada from all of the president’s devastating duties. The US Supreme Court will hear arguments Wednesday from businesses and states that say Trump’s use of a national security statute — the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 — to hit nearly every nation with tariffs is illegal. The hearing will combine two cases: one pushing back on what are usually referred to as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the other which also argues against the fentanyl-related duties on Canada, Mexico and China. It will not impact Trump’s expanding use of tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. …Carlo Dade at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, said no matter the outcome of the hearing, Canada will be facing tariffs.
The head of the Forest Products Association of Canada wants the upcoming federal budget to help “future-proof” the forestry sector while tariffs and duties pile up, as some mills have already been forced to curtail production or close. “Let’s not waste a crisis,” said Derek Nighbor, FPAC’s president and CEO. “Let’s use this as a moment to future-proof and future-ready our industry, and to support our workers and ensure that some of these mills can operate, for decades to come.” …When the budget is shared Nov. 4, Nighbor will be looking for more details on spending to help the forestry industry diversify its export markets. He also expects to learn more about spending on innovation to help retool mills and support a growing, mass timber, prefabricated modular homebuilding industry. …Lana Payne, Unifor’s national president, said she also wants to see a made-in-Canada housing strategy that relies on Canadian lumber.
Politicians from BC and Ottawa met in Vancouver Monday for a forestry summit, where they agreed to create a working group on supporting the industry in the face of ever-increasing U.S. fees and tariffs. …Speaking after the forestry summit on Monday, he said the federal government’s commitment to a working group with the province felt “very heartening.” Kim Haakstad, the president of the B.C. Council of Forest Industries, said in a statement that the group is pleased the governments are working together to keep people working — even when markets are challenging. Haakstad said the working group should also include the industry to help focus on keeping mills open, which means prioritizing a new softwood lumber deal and accelerating the rollout of the $1.2 billion from federal government.
Uh oh. BC Premier David Eby is about to launch his own anti-tariff advertising campaign aimed at US citizens. Eby said this week he expects ads targeting US lumber penalties to begin airing some time in November. It’s safe to say they will not mention Ronald Reagan. …Eby’s teaser for the BC ad campaign shows stacks of Canadian lumber, overlaid with a simplified graph of “winners” and “losers,” terms US President Trump likes to use. In these ads, the losers are American consumers and the Canadian lumber industry, and the winners are the Russians. “It’s important to speak directly to Americans looking to build homes or renovate,” Eby said. …Eby’s got a better case on lumber trade than Ford has on cars and trucks. US home builders have acknowledged that they can’t produce enough lumber for domestic needs, despite Trump’s claim that the US has plenty of trees.
Arkansas’ timber industry, like Arkansas’ agriculture industry, is in trouble. The causes of the trouble are various, but one cause stands out for both: the Trump administration’s trade war. In October, Arkansas House Speaker Brian Evans, R-Cabot, joined the speakers of the Alabama, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina houses of representatives urging Congress to move to relieve “an industry in crisis.” “Under current US trade policy, products and shipments from US exporters are becoming stuck en route to their final destination due to immediately imposed tariffs,” the letter said. The state’s forestry sector supports more than 50,000 jobs and contributes about $6.1 billion to Arkansas’ economy, more than 4% of the state’s GDP. “The trade war has impacted our ability to export hardwood logs out of Arkansas,” Matthew Pelkki, at the University of Arkansas at Monticello, said. [to access the full story an Arkansas Business subscription is required]
VANCOUVER, BC — Canfor Corporation reported its third quarter of 2025 results. The Company reported an operating loss of $208 million and a net loss of $172 million. …Canfor’s CEO, Susan Yurkovich, stated: “The ongoing global economic and trade uncertainty, in conjunction with punitive US softwood lumber duties, led to persistently weak market conditions and subdued demand across all of our operating regions during the third quarter of 2025. …For the lumber segment, the operating loss was $182.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to the previous quarter’s operating loss of $229.2 million. …For the 
Lumber futures steadied around $540 per thousand board feet, hovering near seven-week lows, after a sharp selloff driven mainly by softer US construction demand and lingering post-rally inventories. US housing starts and builder activity failed to accelerate, leaving order flow thin and dealer and distributor stocks higher than the summer buying binge implied. Supply has only partially adjusted, with North American mills signaling temporary curtailments, but looming US softwood measures and announced support for Canada’s industry have kept export channels and production incentives intact, preventing a rapid physical tightening. Traders are now pricing a likely mix of modest Q4 production cuts, seasonal pre-winter restocking and the risk of trade-related disruptions.
MONTREAL, Quebec – Stella-Jones announced financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $958 million, up 5% from Q3 2024; Operating income of $135 million, up 4% from Q3 2024; EBITDA of $171 million, or 17.8% margin, up 6% from Q3 2024; and Net Income of $88 million, up 10% from Q3, 2024. …“Stella-Jones achieved another solid performance in the third quarter, supported by volume improvements, robust margins, improved cash flow and a strong balance sheet,” said Eric Vachon, CEO. …The increase in pressure-treated wood sales resulted from an increase in utility poles and industrial products volumes and higher pricing for railway ties and residential lumber. This was partially offset by lower pricing for utility poles. Logs and lumber sales decreased by $14 million or 47%, mainly driven by lower logs activity.
An extended slowdown in sales of cardboard boxes is intensifying concern that this holiday season will be a disappointing one for US retailers. US corrugated box shipments fell to the lowest third-quarter reading since 2015, maintaining the more measured pace seen in the previous quarter, according to the Fibre Box Association. Packaging companies in recent weeks have warned that economic uncertainty is weighing on retailers and consumers. …This time of year is crucial for the box industry, with shipments typically peaking in October as retailers prepare for the holidays. Box plants said orders were flat or below normal in October, while US consumer sentiment fell to a five-month low and manufacturing activity dropped for an eighth straight month. …US box industry shipments are poised to drop 1% to 1.5% this year versus 2024,” IP’s Andy Silvernail said last week. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]
Kimberly-Clark is buying Tylenol maker Kenvue in a cash and stock deal worth about $48.7 billion, creating a massive consumer health goods company. Shareholders of Kimberly-Clark will own about 54% of the combined company. Kenvue shareholders will own about 46%. The combined company will have a large stable of household brands under one roof, putting Kenvue’s Listerine mouthwash and Band-Aid side-by-side with Kimberly-Clark’s Cottonelle toilet paper, Huggies and Kleenex tissues. It will also generate about $32 billion in annual revenue. Kenvue has spent a relatively brief period as an independent company, having been spun off by Johnson & Johnson two years ago. The deal announced Monday is among the largest corporate takeovers of the year. …The deal is expected to close in the second half of next year. It still needs approval from shareholders of both both companies. …Shares of Kimberly-Clark slipped more than 15% before the market open, while Kenvue’s stock jumped more than 20%.
FORT ST. JOHN, BC — Every single wildfire in northeast B.C. is now either ‘under control’ or extinguished as temperatures decline and snow starts to fall across the province. The BC Wildfire Service website shows the last two ‘out of control’ wildfires in the region, both located near Fort Nelson — are now ‘under control.’That means they’re not expected to spread beyond their current boundaries, as opposed to an ‘out of control’ wildfire that’s expected to keep burning aggressively. …Several other wildfires that were previously listed as ‘being held’ — meaning they’re expected to temporarily remain within their current boundaries, but could become ‘out of control’ again — have also been downgraded to ‘under control.’ …This year’s wildfire season saw over 300 wildfires in the PGFC coverage area.
Alberta’s wildfire season unofficially came to an end Oct. 31, though there are still 30 burning. Since the season began on March 1, there have been 1,245 wildfires across the province. Nearly 682,000 hectares were scorched—slightly less than 2024 (705,621) and much less than 2023 (2,212,399). The Calgary Forest Area had 63 wildfires that burned around 35 hectares—the lowest number compared to the other zones in the province. The Slave Lake Forest Area was the most damaged, with more than 379,000 hectares burned from 214 wildfires. The moderate fire season around Calgary was thanks to normal temperatures from June to August, with a warmer May and September. The rain also kept fires at bay with the third-wettest July on record in Calgary. According to Environment and Climate Change Canada, there were 110 hours of smoke this year. “This is not a lot compared to most of the recent years,” said Natalie Hasell, ECCC warning preparedness meteorologist.
TORONTO — As the 2025 fire season ends, Ontario’s fire crews, aviation services and support staff responded to 643 fires between April and October with 597,654 hectares burned. While the 2025 fire season began with an early active start, the coordinated efforts of frontline staff, municipalities, Indigenous communities and firefighting crews ensured a rapid response to protect people and communities from wildland fires. …With the rest of Canada also experiencing a demanding fire season, Ontario extended support to our partners, with over 400 fire personnel and six aircraft supporting firefighting in British Columbia, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, as well as south of the border in Minnesota. As this year’s fire season ends, Ontario is now turning its focus to ensuring provincial fire crews are ready to respond next fire season. …The 2026 fire season will begin on April 1, 2026.
Durable, renewable and biodegradable, wood is an ideal material. And as we grapple with the aftermath of synthetic materials, such as forever chemicals and microplastics, the humble material growing in our literal backyards is suddenly looking pretty appealing again. But how do you know it wasn’t clearcut from a rainforest? Figuring out logging practices, deforestation policies, impact on wildlife, pesticide use, and impact on indigenous communities “can be really challenging”, said Linda Walker at the World Wildlife Fund. …That’s where certifications come in. A growing number of wood industry certifications are designed to guide consumers. They’re not perfect. Some have rules written by big timber. Almost all of them receive payments from companies seeking certifications. There is no seal that encompasses every issue, but don’t let perfect be the enemy of good – even the most flawed badges have some baseline value.
BOSTON — Susan Abookire, an internist and professor at Harvard Medical School, had a cure for all that ailed me. But I was going to have a difficult time getting her prescription filled at CVS. …I was participating, somewhat skeptically, in a forest bathing session Abookire was leading at Harvard’s Arnold Arboretum for seven young doctors. It’s part of resident training at Harvard-affiliated Brigham and Women’s Hospital, which is looking for ways to reduce stress and burnout within the profession. …Before I looked into forest bathing, I had feared it might be another goofy wellness fad like Gwyneth Paltrow’s jade eggs and Tucker Carlson’s genital tanning. But here was a doctor from a top medical school guiding some of the brightest young medical minds into the woods. …So I did what the doctor ordered. I introduced myself to a mushroom. [to access the full story a Washington Post subscription is required]