President Trump has warned of disaster if the Supreme Court overturns his signature tariffs. For starters, it would unleash a bureaucratic nightmare involving reams of refund paper checks. Should the court uphold a US Court of Appeals ruling that Trump’s country-based tariffs are illegal, the government could owe the bulk of the $165 billion in duties collected so far this fiscal year back to companies that paid them. But they won’t have an easy time getting their money back; refunds are typically issued slowly and while the administration could streamline the process, experts fear that’s unlikely. …That means Trump likely won’t part with the funds easily if the tariffs are struck down, and the administration is expected to move quickly to reimpose levies using other legal authorities if that happens. The Supreme Court is expected to hear arguments in November in the case.
WASHINGTON — Prime Minister Carney is set to return to Ottawa today with no deals to remove US tariffs from Canadian goods, but he’s leaving his key minister on Canada-US trade behind to keep pressing the Canadian case. US President Trump lavished praise on Carney during a meeting in the Oval Office on Tuesday and said the prime minister would walk away “very happy.” The president showed no signs of relenting on tariffs, however, and no deal was announced. Carney was scheduled to have a working breakfast this morning with Joshua Bolten, CEO of the Business Roundtable, while Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand was set to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc will be staying behind in Washington. LeBlanc told reporters Tuesday that substantial progress was made in the White House talks this week.
TORONTO – United Steelworkers union National Director Marty Warren issued the following statement as Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Washington, D.C., to meet with US President Trump. …“Canada’s softwood lumber industry is on the brink of collapse. Thousands of workers and entire communities are hanging by a thread while Trump’s tariffs deindustrialize our economy and threaten good jobs across the country. We need urgent action – not more concessions. If free and fair trade in strategic sectors cannot be restored, the federal government must be ready to retaliate and take all necessary measures to protect the integrity of Canadian industrial production and employment. …We cannot allow foreign producers to use Canada as a back door for cheap, dirty, or diverted imports. …If Washington wants access to our market, it must come with respect for fair trade and for the workers who keep our economy running.”
PRINCE GEORGE – Prime Minister Mark Carney met with President Donald Trump to discuss the connection between energy cooperation and support for Canada’s steel and aluminum industries. However, this meeting raised some eyebrows among forestry industry leaders, who wondered why softwood was left out of the conversation. Brink Forest Products owner John Brink believes that the omission of softwood tariffs in discussions with the president is yet another setback for an already struggling sector. MLA Kiel Giddens also voiced his disappointment that softwood lumber was left off the agenda, especially since forestry ranks among Canada’s leading employers. Brink notes that wood manufacturing plants are still shutting down across the province, and he believes the West must unite to send a strong message to Ottawa. 
The Trump administration and its advocates have long sold tariffs as a smart and necessary way to reindustrialize the country, bolster national security, and revitalize the economy more broadly. In practice, however, they put tariffs on cabinets and sofas for “national security” reasons, exempt others because of potential political blowback, and do all sorts of other things that likely undermine the economic and security objectives the administration says its tariffs are achieving. And they do it all with little regard for the facts, economics, or law. Throw in some foolish nostalgia (contra the president, furniture manufacturing is today a tiny share of North Carolina’s economy and workforce), and the furniture tariffs make for an almost-perfect example of the canyon between protectionist rhetoric and US tariff reality. The only thing preventing perfection is that there isn’t a “national emergency” or fake “fiscal crisis” attached.
The European Commission proposed preliminary antidumping duties on imports of softwood plywood from Brazil, following an investigation launched 
President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on imported lumber and wood products that his administration says are needed to protect the US economy and boost domestic manufacturing. Starting Oct. 14, softwood lumber will face 10% duties, while kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and other finished wood goods will be hit with 25% tariffs that rise further in January. The biggest blow will fall on Canada, the US’s top lumber supplier, whose lumber exports are already subject to separate duties totaling 35.19%. …Though Canada dominates exports of lumber to the US, many other countries export wood products to the US. The Section 232 tariffs on lumber and wood products affect them in varying ways; some countries benefit from trade deals with the US that cap the rates, and others bear the full brunt. …Though lumber accounts for less than 20% of building costs, the National Association of Homebuilders has long said that restrictions on Canadian lumber translate to higher construction costs. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]
North America’s softwood lumber market looks likely to end 2025 no more settled than it was at the beginning. Producers and buyers alike continue navigating a landscape shaped by fluctuating demand, shifting trade patterns, and an uncertain housing outlook. Despite modest production declines in early 2025, the lumber market remains oversupplied. Mills across the US and Canada are contending with high inventories built up earlier in the year. Expectations of tariff hikes spurred an early rush of exports from Canada to the US, flooding the market while demand was soft. However, in the first half of 2025 softwood lumber exports from Canada to the US declined, while US imports from Europe in the first seven months of 2025 increased by 6% year-over-year. Underlying these supply pressures is a US housing market stuck in the doldrums. August saw an 8.5% decline in overall housing starts, with single-family construction down nearly 7%.
Canada’s international trade deficit swelled to $6.3 billion in August, its second-largest shortfall on record, as new United States tariffs took a heavy toll on key exports and injected fresh volatility into cross-border flows. The latest figures, released by Statistics Canada, show how US trade policy continues to affect Canadian exporters and make the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision more complicated. Exports in August fell 3% by value and 3.2% in volume, led by sharp declines in copper ore and lumber shipments, both of which were hit by new US tariffs. …Imports, meanwhile, rose 0.9%, buoyed by higher consumer goods, a sign of resilient household demand, even as business investment remained soft. …Exports to the US, Canada’s largest trading partner, fell 3.4% in August after three consecutive monthly gains, and were down 8% year-over-year. Exports to non-US destinations edged up 1.8% from a year ago but slipped 2% from July.
Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened in August to C$6.32 billion ($4.53 billion) as exports fell faster in both value and volume than the rise in imports on a monthly basis, official government statistics showed on Tuesday. The trade deficit in August was led by drop in exports not only to its top trading partner the U.S. but also because its shipments to the rest of the world shrank in the month. Canada’s international trade numbers took a beating early this year as US President Trump imposed sectoral tariffs on the country, forcing businesses to reorient supply chain from its biggest trading partner. But the shift has been volatile and erratic. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the August trade deficit at C$5.55 billion, up from an upwardly revised C$3.82 billion in the prior month. Total exports dropped by 3% while imports increased 0.9%, StatsCan said.
In the third quarter of 2025, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 60, up one point compared to the previous quarter. With the reading of 60, the RMI remains solidly in positive territory above 50, but lower than it had been at any time from 2021 through 2024. Overall, remodelers remain optimistic about the market, although slightly less optimistic than they were at this time last year. The most significant headwinds they are facing include high material and labor costs, as well as economic and political uncertainty making some of their potential customers cautious about moving forward with remodeling projects. The small quarter-over-quarter improvement is consistent with flat construction spending trends and the current wait-and-see demand environment.
WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae published the results of its September 2025 
The UK timber industry is currently experiencing a crisis, even as it reports record sales of softwood, raising concerns over supply chain challenges, rising costs, and sustainability issues. The surge in softwood sales, particularly in the construction and woodworking sectors, has overshadowed the ongoing difficulties facing the industry. While the demand for timber has been high, particularly due to the growing construction boom and a shift toward more sustainable building materials, the challenges related to timber shortages and price increases remain deeply concerning for businesses across the sector. …The Timber Trade Federation (TTF) reports that softwood sales in the UK reached record levels in 2024. However, one of the most pressing issues facing the UK timber sector is the disruption of supply chains. The UK has faced considerable difficulty in securing a steady supply of raw timber. The global timber shortage has exacerbated the situation.
Shares in packaging and paper group Mondi fell sharply on Monday after the company issued a cautionary outlook, citing weak demand and falling prices across pulp and paper grades. The warning rattled investor confidence in the paper and packaging sector, dragging Mondi shares to a 12-year low. The company said volumes remained subdued and selling prices declined in most grades, particularly in fine paper and corrugated segments. Citing fragile demand, Mondi described the trading environment as challenging and flagged continued weakness for the rest of the year. CEO Andrew King told analysts that demand for packaging “has not become worse, nor has it become better,” and that weakness in the fine paper market persisted. …Mondi’s warning underscores continued strain across the paper and packaging industry. Oversupply in key markets, weak industrial demand in Europe, and aggressive pricing competition are pressuring margins and volumes across the sector.
Construction plastics are a major source of plastic waste in the province, and they urgently need to be measured, tracked and upcycled, says a B.C. organization that promotes sustainable built environments. Canada’s Federal Plastics Registry is expanding in 2026 to include construction plastics, but industry efforts are already underway to gather data and pilot new ways of reducing and reusing them, said Vancouver-based 
CASTLEGAR, BC — A BC Timber Sales manager for the Kootenay-Boundary admits they may have a hard time selling wood in the coming months as local mills cope with additional U.S. tariffs. George Edney told Castlegar city council this week that his organization, which manages and auctions 20% of the timber on Crown land, will have sales opening next week in the Boundary. …Interfor has curtailed its Grand Forks operations indefinitely due to “persistently weak market conditions.” …Edney said if the wood they offer in the Boundary doesn’t sell at the upset price, they can drop the price and try again, or they can withdraw it altogether, although typically they want the wood in the market. …Edney said they sold 581,000 cubic meters that BC Timber Sales in the Kootenays in 2024-25. Their target volume for 2025-26 is 715,000 cubic metres.
ATLANTA — Forest Stewardship Council US announced the approval of the revised 
THUNDER BAY — A number of stakeholders, largely from the forestry and energy sectors, got to provide regional input into a series of ongoing cross-province talks about energy policy. The Vaughn and Thunder Bay Chambers of Commerce held a roundtable discussion in the city on Oct. 2. The goal was for regional interests to provide requested input into an issues paper on energy being developed by the Toronto-based business lobby. …In Northwestern Ontario, she said, that includes longstanding sources like hydroelectricity and natural gas, but also continually-emerging opportunities connected to forestry and biomass. “We also talked a lot about the opportunities through the forest sector and biomass and the many things that can be created by harnessing forest products into energy,” Robinson said. “I think the most important thing was talking about how, from a forestry perspective, it really does check all the boxes.”
Given market sentiment and operating rates, in addition to recent mill closures and curtailments, how has demand for wood fiber changed recently and over the past 10 years? …Total capacity of the wood-using U.S. pulp and paper sector declined 18% in the past 10 years. This decline is specific to wood-using mills, excluding facilities that rely exclusively on recycled fiber, but the sector reported drops in all end uses, with reductions in printing and writing capacity falling 49%. This represented over half of the lost capacity nationwide. Newsprint, household/sanitary, and market pulp segments also had notable declines, each representing 10%-16% of the lost capacity. Regionally, capacity reductions in the U.S. South accounted for most of the volume lost (64%), with the U.S. West and North each representing 18%. The West experienced the largest and most severe drop in capacity for a given region, with pulp and paper mill closures and reductions decreasing capacity by 26%.
WASHINGTON — The US Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a high-profile challenge to Washington’s Climate Commitment Act, marking yet another victory for the state’s keystone climate policy. The lawsuit started with the private operator of a natural gas power plant in Grays Harbor County. The plant is required to buy pollution allowances to pay for the many tons of greenhouse gasses it emits into the atmosphere under the 2021 “Cap and Invest” law. The plant’s owner, Chicago-based Invenergy, sued Laura Watson, then-head of Washington’s Department of Ecology, in late 2022, arguing that the state’s carbon market is unconstitutional. The lawsuit claimed that the state law discriminated against privately operated natural gas plants. In 2023, US District Court Judge Benjamin Settle dismissed the case. The company appealed. …The Supreme Court on Monday denied Invenergy’s petition outright. The justices did not publish any written justification for their decision.
The failure of carbon offsets to cut planet-heating pollution is “not due to a few bad apples”, a