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Having already forced Colombia to accept deportees by threatening a 25% tariff, President Donald Trump is readying the same move against Canada and Mexico as soon as Saturday. But this time, the stakes are higher and many economists surveying the possible damage doubt Trump would be comfortable with self-inflicted wounds from the tariffs. Trump has repeatedly insisted that tariffs on Canada and Mexico are about illegal border crossings and the smuggling of fentanyl. But the Republican president is also motivated by the idea that tariffs would force other countries to “respect” the US. …The economics division of the insurance company Nationwide estimated that Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would increase inflation by as much as 0.5 percentage points and pull down growth by 0.7 percentage points. The analysis noted it did not “account for potential retaliatory tariffs from Canada or Mexico, which could amplify the deleterious impact.”
PORTLAND, Maine — Tariffs that are central to Trump’s economic policies could destabilize markets for numerous Maine products from lumber to electricity. …Tariffs on products from Canada, which is Maine’s biggest trading partner, would send powerful ripples across the state’s economy. Maine brought in $4.4 billion of goods – fuels, oil, electricity, wood pulp and more – from its neighbor in 2024. Imports from Canada far outpace those from any other trading partner. …Patrick Woodcock, CEO of the Maine State Chamber of Commerce said, “many state businesses see Canada not just as a market to buy and sell items, but a place with mills and processing plants that are “fully integrated in their business plans”. …New tariffs could complicate trade relations between the U.S. and Canada, which have been tested in disputes over lumber for decades, said Patrick Strauch, of the Maine Forest Products Council… but a universal tariff would have the biggest effect on the price of energy. [the access the full story a Portland Press Herald subscription is required]
Canada’s central bank has cut interest rates for a sixth consecutive time as inflation remains around two per cent and the threat of U.S. tariffs looms. The 25-basis point cut comes as the Bank of Canada forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025 if there is no trade war with the United States. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said while tariffs are top of mind, they were not factors in the rate cut and the monetary policy report MPR). “Since scope and duration of a possible trade conflict are impossible to predict, the MPR projection we published today provides a baseline forecast in the absence of tariffs,” said Macklem. …Macklem says a protracted and broad-based trade war would hurt economic activity in Canada with the higher cost of imported goods putting direct upward pressure on inflation.
The Bank of Canada is being pulled in a few different directions ahead of its first interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday. On one hand, there are signs of trouble bubbling up in underlying inflation that could make an argument for keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. On the other: Donald Trump has reiterated threats to impose tariffs of 25% on Canadian goods that could be set to take effect mere days after the central bank’s rate decision. …A trade blow like that would normally push the Bank of Canada towards steeper rate cuts in a bid to salvage economic growth. But dropping rates too quickly at a time when the loonie is already struggling risks fuelling more inflation on imports from the US. Economists say they’re betting the Bank of Canada will go ahead with another cut.
Lumber prices are 9.6% higher than they were one year ago. …Impact of wood and lumber prices on the cost of a new home: In addition to narrowly defined framing lumber, products such as plywood, OSB, particleboard, fiberboard, shakes and shingles make up a considerable portion of the total 
Looming tariffs could cause the cost of construction materials like lumber and mortar to skyrocket— if they actually happen. President Trump indicated these tariffs could go into effect as soon as Feb. 1. If a 25% tariff is imposed on both of the United State’s bordering neighbors, prices of imported goods will inevitably go up. This could be felt particularly keenly in the residential construction industry, which relies heavily on foreign imports for materials. Combined, nearly 20 percent of the total goods used in residential construction in the United States are imported from Canada and Mexico. …Lumber prices have already risen 17 percent in the last year, with much of that increase coming after tariffs on Canadian lumber were raised to nearly 15 percent in August. According to the NAHB, “Total imports of sawmill and wood products from Canada in 2023 was $5.8 billion.
Homeownership has long played a starring role in the American dream. …Nearly nine in 10 homeowners (88% / 81% in 2025) in a survey said the true cost of owning a home is more expensive than they’d expected. …Recent, unexpected hurricane-related floods in Western North Carolina and massive fires across Los Angeles County, which both occurred after the survey was conducted, will surely raise costs even more dramatically this year, and not just in the affected regions. This will be due to fierce competition for construction supplies and labor as disaster-stricken areas compete for resources and everyone else looks to maintain and improve their homes. Tariffs, depending on how they’re applied – e.g., Canadian lumber for rebuilding or across-the-board Chinese imports hitting home improvement store shelves – and potential disruption to the construction workforce can also surge homeownership costs.
OTTAWA — Across the country, the impacts of climate change are becoming more severe and more frequent with extreme events like floods, wildfires and heatwaves on the rise. …Marc G. Serré, Parliamentary Secretary to the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, along with Member of Parliament Viviane Lapointe and Member of Parliament Anthony Rota, announced over $2.7 million in funding for five projects based in northern Ontario under Natural Resources Canada’s 
Climate change increased the likelihood of the extreme conditions that allowed the recent fires to roar across the Los Angeles area, an international group of scientists said Tuesday. The hot, dry and windy conditions that preceded the fires were about 35% more likely because of human-caused global warming, according to a new report from the World Weather Attribution group, which analyzes the influence of global warming on extreme events. …“This was a perfect storm when it comes to conditions for fire disasters,” John Abatzoglou, at the University of California, Merced said. …The authors analyzed weather and climate models to evaluate how a warmer atmosphere is shifting the likelihood of fire weather. …The researchers found that the kind of conditions that drove the L.A. area fires are expected to occur on average once in 17 years in today’s climate. Such conditions would have been expected once every 23 years without climate change.
