Kevin Mason
The conflict in Iran has extended into a sixth week. Despite growing fears about economic wreckage (we have already seen cracks in consumer sentiment, mortgage rates climbing, etc.), we have yet to see any significant second- and third-order impacts on forest products commodities (the operative word is yet). Despite President Trump’s suggestion that the US will retreat from the Middle East in the next two to three weeks, risks abound. Even with a retreat, the risk to the world’s energy arteries will likely persist; it is only a matter of time before companies in our universe suffer the consequences of the war.
Some cost inflation has shown up quickly (e.g., energy and transport) and will pressure margins as soon as Q2. While a select few companies (those in certain packaging and paper grades) may successfully hike prices to at least partially offset higher costs, for others the downside peril to underlying demand means that margin compression is a risk (prices could fall without supply reductions). As such, while our commodity price and company earnings forecasts have not declined materially, we are adopting a more cautionary approach to valuations and moving EBITDA multiples lower for companies and commodities for which we perceive at more risk. …Several producers in our space needed markets to come to the rescue this year; however, with each passing day that the world is mired in this conflict, it looks increasingly as if 2026 will become another year to survive.
We find ourselves once again compelled to address the 
The US says in a new report that Canada is failing to stop foreign goods made with forced labour from entering its market, a finding that coincides with Washington’s probe into the matter, which could lead to more tariffs. The 2026 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers from the US government says it appears Canada is importing goods that cost less than they should because they were made with forced labour. It’s an early indication of how the US will rule on Canada. …US customs policy treats all goods from China’s Xinjiang region as though they were made with forced labour unless importers can provide “clear and convincing evidence” to the contrary. …Canada passed a law, the 
OTTAWA — Provincial rules around alcohol and the federal government’s “Buy Canadian” policy have been flagged in a new report citing several trade irritants between Canada and the US. The annual document prepared by the Office of the US Trade Representative said market access barriers imposed by provincial liquor control boards “greatly hamper” exports of US wine, beer and spirits to Canada. …The report says U.S. companies have reported concerns about barriers in competing for contracts, including proving their Canadian subsidiary’s independence from a US parent company. Other issues listed in the report include delays with aircraft validation in Canada and high tariffs on U.S. dairy products. …Canada is still being slammed by Trump’s separate tariffs on industries like steel, aluminum, autos, lumber and cabinets. The Trump administration has launched investigations of a long list of countries, including Canada, citing forced labour in supply chains. 
The Home Depot currently offers more than a dozen AI-powered capabilities, with numerous others in development. …The Home Depot is simplifying the DIY journey by providing personalized, real-time advice that makes even the most complex projects feel achievable, paired with more seamless AI search and product discovery capabilities thanks to new technology integrations. Magic Apron & Outdoor Assistant—This virtual expert brings employee knowledge to customers virtually. With the Outdoor Assistant, customers can take a photo of a plant for immediate guidance on care, safety and sunlight. …Customers can now discover the latest Home Depot product catalog in ChatGPT. …Pros shop at The Home Depot an average of 60 times per year. Pros can create actionable job lists in minutes using natural language, voice-to-text or spreadsheet uploads. Pros can use AI to deliver complete material lists and project quotes in days instead of weeks.
MOBILE COUNTY, Alabama — A lumber company is set to make a multi-million dollar investment into its Port City location. According to a release, a subsidiary of Canfor Southern Pine, New South Lumber Company Inc., is investing $10.5 million in the Mobile County location. The company will be adding “a new dual-path continuous dry kiln.” This move aims to increase efficiency and drying capacity, as well as provide room for growth in the future. “This investment reinforces the company’s commitment to maintaining and strengthening its existing workforce and ensuring the long-term sustainability of the operation,” said Canfor Southern Pine Inc. President Lee Goodloe. Construction is set to begin in April and be completed in June.
MAINE — As gas and diesel prices climb during the war in Iran, some of Maine’s most recognizable industries are feeling the strain. From the coast to the woods, people who rely on fuel to do their jobs say the higher costs are changing how they work and raising concerns about what comes next. Lobstermen are rethinking trips on the water, while logging contractors say the math is getting harder for truckers and mills across the state. …“I mean, there is no equipment that does not use diesel as its primary fuel for both harvesting and trucking,” Dana Doran, executive director of the Professional Logging Contractors of the Northeast, said. Doran said spiking diesel prices are adding roughly 20% to the cost of each trip a driver makes to and from a mill. That increase, he said, creates uncertainty for contractors and for mills that depend on a steady supply of wood.
OTTAWA — New data released by Statistics Canada suggests the economy was rebounding in the first few months of the year after a mild contraction to close 2025. The agency said on Tuesday real gross domestic product edged up 0.1% in January, helped by strength in goods-producing industries, which expanded by 0.2%. Looking ahead, the agency added that its preliminary estimate for February suggests the economy grew 0.2% for the month, though it cautioned the figure would be revised. Statistics Canada’s initial estimates for January published last month expected real GDP to be relatively flat. Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO, said “it does look like we had moderate growth in the first quarter of the year, which, given a lot of the other indicators, is not a bad place to be”. …Statistics Canada estimated the economy contracted 0.5% on an annualized basis in the final quarter of 2025.
Mortgage rates, which dipped below 6% in February, climbed back up to end the month just under 6.4%. According to 
The landscape of the United States wood products industry in 2026 is being shaped by evolution from commodity lumber toward high-performance engineered wood systems. …While traditional sawmills have faced a turbulent consolidation period, the emergence of mass timber, specifically glulam and cross laminated timber, have created a high-growth sector that is increasingly more independent from the traditional volatility of the single-family residential market. …On the supply side, the wood industry is navigating a period of restructured supply and capacity following a series of significant mill closures in recent years. …Looking ahead to 2027 and beyond, as new mills come online, the industry is poised to move engineered wood products and mass timber from a niche specialty to a standard building practice. The core business challenge for the next 24 months will be the development of a more robust domestic supply chain that can support American builders amid logistics disruptions. 
US consumer confidence unexpectedly edged up in March, but households anticipated higher inflation over the next 12 months amid a surge in gasoline prices and continued tariffs pass-through, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 91.8 this month. Data for February was revised slightly down to show the index at 91.0 instead of 91.2. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 88.0. “Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025. The month-long U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has sent global oil prices surging more than 50%.
National housing data shows deck inclusion in new homes remains below 18%, according to the US Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction. For dealers and distributors, that number doesn’t tell the whole story. It does, however, set the stage for a stronger, more profitable era for decking—especially in custom home construction and high-end remodel markets. Custom builds may represent a smaller slice of total housing starts, but they also make up a disproportionately larger share of premium decking materials and system upgrades. And that’s where one opportunity lies. In the custom builder market, decks are far from an afterthought. They’re often part of the architectural plan from Day 1—particularly in markets with walkout basements, elevated foundations, and building lots with natural views. …The stakes go beyond just a nice-looking place to sit outside. Today’s builders, remodelers, and homeowners need environmentally sound, code ready, and easy to install materials.
Japan’s 
Today, not only is Canada in a housing affordability crisis, but Build Canada Homes (BCH), the new federal agency-turned-Crown Corporation tasked with building affordable housing at record speed and scale, is already largely staffed, selecting projects, and hoping to break ground by this fall.
As more U.S. states consider extended producer responsibility (EPR) laws, the American Forest & Paper Association warns the policy could raise the cost of everyday goods, Midland reports. EPR raises costs for American families because it shifts recycling expenses onto manufacturers. Global studies show when there are new regulatory fees, prices for packaged items increase. EPR works like a consumption tax. It ultimately increases the overall cost of groceries, household goods and paper products. As a result, Americans will feel the impact when shopping at the grocery store and for everyday necessities, according to AF&PA. EPR will increase costs without improving paper recycling. …Extended Producer Responsibility requires companies to pay for collecting, recycling and disposing of their products. That’s true even for materials like paper that are already widely and successfully recycled today.
As with any other natural resource, building with wood starts with ensuring each piece is up to snuff. And while there are machines to help vis-a-vis bots spotting knots, human eyes and judgement remain essential. To help expand that human portion of the grading project, the Pacific Lumber Inspection Bureau (PLIB) has rolled out the Fundamentals of Lumber Grading. 
DENMARK — The timber industry is intensifying efforts to expand the use of wood in construction, with a new action plan aiming to raise its market share to 20% by 2030. Launched under the “TiB 2.0” initiative by industry body Træ i Byggeriet, the strategy seeks to accelerate adoption by addressing key barriers, including restrictive building regulations, entrenched industry practices and limited knowledge of wood’s capabilities. Lauritz Rasmussen, head of the organisation’s secretariat, said the initiative builds on growing interest in timber as a sustainable building material but acknowledges progress has been too slow. He stated that “all reason dictates that we should use more wood for the climate, the environment and for the qualities for which wood is recognized”. The plan focuses on increasing visibility, improving documentation and promoting knowledge-sharing to influence decision-makers. Leadership changes also form part of the strategy, with Per Thomas Dahl of CLT Denmark appointed as the new chairman.
The construction industry is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, mostly due to conventional materials production. Because of this, there is an urgent need for sustainable alternatives. Bio-based materials offer a promising alternative but remain underutilized. This study examines wood to derive insights that could support the broader adoption of bio-based alternatives. This research explores the systemic drivers and barriers to the diffusion of wood through interviews with key actors. A system dynamics model is developed to capture the main factors affecting wood diffusion and their interdependencies. …It shows that successful diffusion requires systemic innovation, necessitating collaboration across the ecosystem. This systemic analysis offers important insights for other bio-based materials, which differ in resource availability, applications, and production cycles, but face similar barriers such as workforce shortages, scalability, and societal acceptance. Overcoming these barriers requires targeted trainings and supportive policies. 
TOKYO — Leaders from the global forestry sector met last week in Tokyo to advance the 
It’s a well-established fact that forests and water are deeply connected. For decades, paired-watershed experiments have shown that when we lose forests, the total amount of water flowing through our rivers tends to rise. But a critical question has remained unanswered: does this extra water come from previous reserves, or is it simply “new” rain that the land is failing to hold? Is forest loss causing our watersheds to lose their internal integrity and leak like a sifter? Our recent study at the University of BC analyzed 657 watersheds across the globe. By using a tool called the Young Water Fraction, we found that forest loss significantly accelerates how fast precipitation travels through a landscape. We estimate that for every 1% of forest lost, the “young water” in our streams increases by about 0.17%. Crucially, our research reveals that… the way we arrange forest patches can either aggravate or mitigate this leakage.
Mountains across the West have lost their usual wintry look this year. Snowpacks in the Cascade Range, the central and southern Rockies, and the Sierra Nevada are significantly below average. As of February 1, 2026, Oregon, Colorado, and Utah reported the lowest snowpack levels on record since continuous snow data collection began in the early 1980s. …This condition is a snow drought—a period when snowpack is abnormally low relative to the time of year and location. Many of the areas with low snow received ample precipitation early in the season. November and December snowfall was near normal in many parts of the West and looked to be setting the stage for a reasonable snow year. However, warm and dry January conditions and scattered rain-on-snow events in February caused much of the early accumulated snow to melt. This condition has put large parts of the West in a 
ANCHORAGE, Alaska – The federal government isn’t holding public meetings on a rule that could reshape logging across the nation’s largest national forest — so a conservation group is doing it instead. The Southeast Alaska Conservation Council is hosting a series of community “public hearings” this month on the Tongass National Forest’s roadless rule. …The group plans to collect public testimony and submit it directly into the federal record as the US Forest Service weighs potential changes to those protections. Nathan Newcomer, SEACC’s Tongass campaigner, said the group stepped in after learning the Forest Service had no plans to hold its own public meetings. …The Forest Service is expected to publish a draft environmental impact statement on the roadless rule — a step that would open a formal public comment period. Newcomer said that the window is expected to last 30 days and could begin as soon as late April.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) announced the launch of an innovative new tool, the 
As the Trump administration wages war on Iran, it’s citing national security to seek an exemption from the Endangered Species Act for expanded oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico — a move alarming environmental groups who say it could set a dangerous precedent for future fossil fuel projects. Environmentalists argue the government hasn’t followed proper procedure and they’re seeking to block the move before Interior Secretary Doug Burgum convenes the Endangered Species Committee on Tuesday. The committee, nicknamed the “God Squad” by groups who say it can determine the fate of a species, is comprised of six high-ranking federal officials plus a representative for states involved. …The Center for Biological Diversity sued last week to block the committee meeting. …The committee was established in 1978 as a way to exempt projects from the Endangered Species Act. …The committee has only convened three times in its 53-year history and issued only two exemptions. 
