Kevin Mason
The US tariff regime is far from over despite a US Supreme Court ruling striking down last year’s tariffs authorized by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Although the court noted in its ruling that the president overstepped his authority in applying reciprocal tariffs on virtually all trading partners, it did leave the door open for other means of tariff application—and the US Administration has wasted no time in charging through that door, turning to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose new global tariffs of 10% (likely moving to 15%). Tariffs under Section 122 expire after 150 days without congressional approval, but we assume other options will be put in place before expiry (Section 232, 301 or some other creative mechanism).
With respect to the forest products industry, cessation of IEEPA tariffs and application of these new Section 122 tariffs have no impact on existing lumber duties (35% remains intact), nor for any existing tariffs under Section 232 (at 10%) or goods currently compliant under USMCA (such goods remain tariff-free under Section 122). Although USMCA-compliant goods are safe from tariffs for now, with that trade deal being reviewed this summer the tariff-free flow of goods among the US, Mexico and Canada could be upended. Since almost all newsprint supply comes from Canada (see page 19), that fear is ostensibly already causing U.S. buyers to accelerate purchases. Our table details what we know at the moment about the new tariff regime (Section 122 at 10% but probably moving to 15%). Brazil and China appear to be winners in these latest moves, but, with other mechanisms available to Trump, we don’t think these recent tariff reductions are going to lead to any dramatic increase in imports from these countries (uncertainty seems to be part of the goal under Trump’s methods).
Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc says he sees a path to renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and anticipates more specifics from the U.S. administration soon. Gearing up to head back to Washington, DC next week to meet with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and “others” next week, LeBlanc said he’s “not pessimistic about renewing the trilateral framework.” “Renewing. It doesn’t expire, it expires in 2036. But the review is not a renegotiation,” LeBlanc said. LeBlanc said two of the key factors underpinning his optimism are that when US President Trump levied his latest global tariff, he maintained the CUSMA exemption, and because American political and business leaders are “speaking up more now.” …Amid speculation that Trump wants to scrap the trilateral trade pact and strike trade deals with Canada and Mexico independently, LeBlanc said the way he sees it, Trump may pursue separate bilateral deals, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the end of CUSMA.
Anti-dumping and countervailing duties, and now additional tariffs on softwood lumber and derivative wood products add to a long history of trade measures applied to Canadian exports. …Recent trade data shows exports of targeted wood products to the US have declined by roughly 11% in 2025 from a year earlier with losses concentrated in Quebec and BC. Export gains elsewhere have only partially compensated for reduced US market access—in part reflecting the geographical constraints in shipping lumber and wood products. …Average industrial capacity utilization rate for wood product manufacturing has declined roughly 10 percentage points to 75% in 2025 Q3 from a decade earlier, while employment in sawmills and wood preservation fell roughly 20% between May 2017 and November 2025 with more pronounced declines in BC (-32%) and Quebec (-13%). …Reduced domestic supply could also put pressure on downstream industries such as pulp and paper mills and construction. The combination of weak demand and constrained supply raises the risk of further production curtailments and mill closures.
Twenty years after spinning out Canfor Pulp Products as a separate entity, Canfor Corp. plans to bring it back into the fold to prevent the subsidiary from sinking. …Since December, its stock has plunged to about $0.50 per share. A March 6 shareholder vote on a plan of arrangement is just one of the vital signs indicating how bad 2025 was for the forestry sector in general, and BC forestry companies in particular. …But B.C. has been particularly hard hit with sawmill and pulp mill closures due to its fibre constraints and higher operating costs. The most recent high-profile mill closure in BC was the Domtar pulp mill in Crofton at the end of December. BC pulp mills rely on wood chips from sawmills to produce pulp. But so many sawmills have permanently shuttered in B.C. in the last few years that pulp mills now struggle to find enough fibre to run their mills.
On Dec. 2, 2025, Domtar announced it would permanently close Crofton’s nearly 70-year-old mill citing a lack of affordable fibre in BC and rising cost of materials. In response, the Municipality of North Cowichan created a Community Transition Table to coordinate union leadership, worker support and discussions on the future of the mill site. …The Discourse has compiled a timeline of major events at the Crofton mill to help understand the historical context of the latest mill closure. …1957: The mill opens and BC Forest Products (BCFP) told the citizens of Crofton it would employ 300 people and have an annual payroll of $1.5 million. Crofton was chosen as the location for the mill after an “extensive” three year survey by BCFP found the Cowichan River had adequate water supply for the mill. 1963: BCFP announced an $18.5 million expansion of the Crofton mill to expand the capacity to produce paper for its second newsprint machine.
HOUSTON, BC –Houston area First Nations were in talks to buy Canfor’s now-closed Houston sawmill and timber tenure throughout last fall, only to have an offer rejected in December, says the chief councillor from the Lake Babine Nation. “Canfor shut down all talks at once,” said Wilf Adam last week. “They did not like the price. That was it.” The company has been trying to sell its Houston and area holdings after years of rolling openings and closures in response to overall market pressure and high operations costs at the mill. …There was hope in the spring of 2023 when… but that hope was quashed in the spring of 2024 when the company announced it was shelving the prospect of a new mill. It then began looking for a buyer for the mill and tenure.
New Brunswick royalty revenues have plummeted by $45 million. It’s a figure that has forestry royalties on track to come in at an historic low in the current fiscal year. And it was a decision to significantly cut royalty rates made quietly by the Holt government last July that’s behind it. That’s as the government suggests it’s a move that’s successfully sheltered the industry from curtailments and closures that are being felt across the country. …The province moved to overhaul timber royalty rates in 2022 after acknowledging its former policy of charging forestry companies a flat rate for wood cut in public forests had failed to take advantage of a two-year explosion in international lumber prices. A new system created under the former Higgs government allowed for rates to rise and fall with the prices of various wood-based commodities. “As forest product markets improve in the future, royalty rates will index upwards,” Herron said.
The US Department of Commerce preliminarily determined that hardwood and decorative plywood from China was sold in the US at less than fair value during the period Oct. 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025, and it also made a preliminary affirmative determination of critical circumstances. Starting March 2, 2026, the publication date of the Commerce Department notice in the Federal Register, US Customs and Border Protection will begin suspending liquidation and collecting cash deposits on covered entries at the applicable rates. The notice sets an estimated weighted-average dumping margin of 187.27% for the China-wide entity and an adjusted cash-deposit rate of 185.96% for the listed producer-exporter combinations as well as for the China-wide entity. …Commerce said it plans to issue its final determination by May 10, 2026, within 75 days of the preliminary decision’s Feb. 24 signature date, after which the US International Trade Commission will decide whether the U.S. industry was materially injured by the imports.
VANCOUVER, Washington — Canadian-owned Western Forest Products plans to expand its Fruit Valley manufacturing operation, according to pre-planning documents submitted to the city of Vancouver. Plans show the company expects to build up to three prefabricated steel buildings and an office building, as well as demolish its existing Fruit Valley lumber drying kilns and storage buildings. “We are supporting a modest expansion of our product and service portfolio,” Babita Khunkhun, the company’s senior director of communications, said. Khunkhun said planning for the expansion will continue throughout the year. The company intends to invest in new machinery at its Fruit Valley manufacturing site and make ready-to-install fabricated glulam beams, she said. The Fruit Valley operation is currently used for secondary lumber manufacturing. …A summer blaze left the company’s Columbia Vista sawmill beyond repair according to a state layoff notification from July. The company has decided to sell that site.
MOSINEE, Wisconsin — About 200 employees at the Mosinee paper mill were told before their shifts this week that their jobs are at risk as Ahlstrom moves forward with a phased shutdown of key operations at the plant. Several employees, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Wausau Pilot late Wednesday that management told workers Paper Machine No. 2 will shut down June 30, with Paper Machine No. 3 and the pulp mill slated to close Sept. 30. …In the letter to suppliers, Ahlstrom said it plans to permanently close the pulp mill and idle the M2 and M3 paper machines as part of a restructuring of operations at the Mosinee facility. The company cited rising costs and limited automation at those operations as reasons for the decision. …Ahlstrom said Paper Machines No. 1 and No. 4 will continue operating at the Mosinee mill. The company also said it plans to invest in modern technologies at those remaining machines.
Statistics Canada says the economy capped off a volatile year with a contraction in the final quarter of 2025. The agency said that real gross domestic product declined 0.6% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter, falling short of expectations from the Bank of Canada and most economists for flat growth. Real GDP per capita was unchanged in the fourth quarter. StatCan said the main reason for the contraction was businesses drawing down their inventories. The economy swung back and forth between gains and losses every quarter last year as sharp changes in exports tied to US tariffs drove volatility in GDP data. …The agency said real GDP rose 1.7% in 2025 overall, cooling from 2% growth in each of the previous two years and marking the slowest pace of annual growth since 2016 outside the COVID-19 pandemic. “Lower exports, particularly to the United States, were the main contributor to the slower rise in GDP in 2025”.
Lumber futures fell toward $550 per thousand board feet, marking a six-week low, as a stagnant North American housing sector failed to absorb heavy seasonal inventories. Demand weakened as January data showed a 7% year over year drop in single family starts and an 8.4% decline in units under construction. High 6.25% mortgage rates and a 5.8% slump in Canadian home sales during January 2026 further stalled new project starts. On the supply side, regional inventory remained bloated. While BC curtailments continued harsh winter storms in the US South halted jobsite activity more than mill output, creating a distributor logjam and forcing aggressive dealer discounting to clear yard space. Additionally, while Trump’s administration 45% softwood duties were meant to buoy prices they instead stifled demand by adding nearly $17,500 to average home costs. This eroded the builder confidence needed to clear current supply.
Real estate professionals active in the Los Angeles market are bracing themselves for another wave of tariff-induced uncertainty following the US Supreme Court’s ruling. …Despite the Feb. 20 ruling, President Donald Trump has been adamant that he will find other avenues to impose his tariffs. Trump’s tariff policies have already caused upheaval for local businesses, and now the country’s heightened situation with tariffs will further disrupt L.A.’s real estate market, according to experts across development, manufacturing and finance. “This is a very shifting landscape for American companies,” said Ken Calligar, founder of RSG 3•D. …Garret Weyand, at Cedar Street Partners, said, “If costs are too high because of these tariffs, then projects don’t get built.” Banks will likely make borrowers increase the amount of equity so that the bank is covered in the event tariffs and inflation raise project costs.
Japan’s housing starts fell 0.4% yoy in January 2026, easing from a 1.3% drop in the previous month and beating market expectations of a 1.6% decline. It marked the third consecutive month of contraction, though the pace was the mildest since July 2024. Rental housing starts declined at a slower rate (-1.5% vs -3.4% in December). Meanwhile, owner-occupied homes rebounded (6.6% vs -1.8%), as did prefabricated housing (5.1% vs -6.1%). Starts for two-by-four homes also accelerated (8.7% vs 2.8%). In contrast, built-for-sale housing fell 4.8%, reversing a 1.9% increase in December.
Since International Paper closed its mills in Liberty and Chatham counties last fall, business owners in Southeast Georgia who once made the state the largest timber exporter in the nation have been feeling acute pain. As of January, demand for timber had dropped more than 60%. …The cost of pulpwood, meanwhile, had plummeted. …Gov. Brian Kemp has carved $14 million for the timber industry in his draft budget, based on recommendations from a 
The mass timber supply chain has spent more than a decade proving the product works. …Now, research produced by Michigan State University argues that none of it matters much if the system surrounding the product isn’t built to match. Led by George Berghorn, Modular Mass Timber for Housing Construction, research published in the 
How the hell did we end up in this situation? It’s a question that everyone involved in BC’s wood products business has asked themselves during the last few years. The question doesn’t have a simple answer. Instead, there are several contributing factors that have steered the forest industry into its current mess. But two problems are of critical importance now: securing reliable fibre access and dealing calmly with the international uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s lust for world trade dominance and military supremacy. But the BC forest industry has deep roots and some of the issues which began long ago have now come home to roost. All at the same time. They’ve created a confluence of concerns. That’s evident in the silent sawmills, the scattering of a skilled workforce—and communities in crisis throughout the BC interior.
Drax Group is launching a strategic review of its Canadian pellet operations due to a constrained fiber market and low margins. …CEO Will Gardiner discussed the company’s changing pellet production strategy. …“Our US business is fundamentally part of our UK supply chain. That business is doing very well As you will have seen, our Canadian business is more challenged, and we’ve been talking about this for some time as margins have come down due to fiber costs rising in Canada more rapidly than indexed power prices in Asia. As we noted last year, this dynamic contributed to the decision we’ve made to close one of our pellet plants in Williams Lake towards the end of last year.” As a result, Drax is not currently expecting to commit any additional capital to the pellet production segment, including the paused pellet plant planned for development in Longview, Washington.
Wildfires have increased in frequency and severity over the past few decades. More fires are burning at the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where homes and other buildings meet the natural landscape—but our understanding of emissions from structure fires is still growing. New research led by the University of Colorado Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences shows that common synthetic materials used in homes, like plastics and insulation, can release harmful compounds into the air when they burn. But synthetic materials make up only a small fraction of a home. Timber and wood panels make up the majority of the materials used, and the burning emissions from those are not so different from a vegetation fire. The work, 