Nelson Bennett
An NDP government has had no small part in breaking B.C.’s forest industry… but can an NDP government now fix it? …Premier David Eby pledged to work towards an assured harvest of 45 million cubic metres annually, which would be an improvement of the current harvest levels, and last week, Forests Minister Ravi Parmar announced a new task force tasked with reforming BC Timber Sales, which manages 20% of the province’s AAC. …B.C.’s forest sector faces a plethora of challenges, including current softwood lumber duties, a threat of additional 25-per-cent tariffs on lumber exports and metastasizing government rules and regulations that have increasingly restricted access to timber, the supply of which had already been reduced by past pine beetle infestations and wildfires. More than a dozen sawmill and pulp mills have permanently shuttered in B.C. in the past four years. B.C. lumber producers face the prospect of softwood lumber duties doubling next year, and there’s now the added fear of 25% tariffs being imposed by the Donald Trump administration.
Domestically, the threat to B.C.’s struggling forest sector comes from federal and provincial policies that increasingly restrict access to the working forests. …Since coming to power in 2017, the BC NDP has implemented a rash of new policies and regulations crimping the timber supply, including old growth harvesting moratoria, new forest landscape plans, ecosystem-based land management, increasing parks and protected areas, shared land-use decision-making with First Nations and caribou habitat protection plans. …The shrinkage in the timber supply has not only put sawmills out of business, but has also affected secondary manufacturing, such as pulp and paper mills. …In an attempt to address some of concerns with access to fibre, Parmar last week announced a six-month review of BC Timber Sales. One of the goals of the review is to provide “predictable and reliable market access to fibre.”
Premier David Eby began his address to the Truck Loggers Association (TLA) Leader’s Luncheon by addressing the economic uncertainty posed by U.S. trade policies, both the existing softwood lumber duties and the proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian imports. He outlined the significant economic impact of the tariffs on BC, should they be implemented and last for four years, which is the loss of over 100,000 jobs and $60 billion in GDP. Working in concert with the rest of Canada, Eby said there are three components to BC’s response. First, retaliatory tariffs would target key U.S. political districts heavily reliant on Canadian goods. …Second, the strategy emphasizes strengthening BC’s economy by addressing bureaucratic delays, accelerating permitting processes, and improving infrastructure. …Third, the plan focuses on market diversification, with initiatives to deepen trade relationships in Asia and other international markets.
President Trump said, “We don’t need Canada to make our cars. We don’t need their lumber because we have our own forests,” he said. “We don’t need their oil and gas.” Mr. Trump is wrong on all three, but we’ll focus on lumber. The U.S. doesn’t produce enough lumber to meet domestic demand and thus imports about a third of the softwood used in home construction, mostly from Canada. …Mr. Trump’s tariff threat has created uncertainty for lumber wholesalers and contractors that could delay rebuilding. The U.S. can’t ramp up lumber production in the near term to meet domestic demand, so contractors will have to eat the tariff cost on lumber from Canada or import more from other countries, which would be expensive. If Mr. Trump wants to increase U.S. lumber production, he could open up more federal land for logging. …More tariffs will punish Americans trying to rebuild. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
While Donald Trump has yet to act on his multiple tariff threats, it’s likely he will. So the fear lingers that the US president’s aggressive trade posture will sow global disorder, depressing growth and roiling markets, particularly if targeted nations retaliate. But retaliation is not the only or even the most likely response to Trump, no matter how broadly he finally delivers on his threats. The US has wielded tariffs as a weapon for eight years now. …Some nations retaliated; others offered concessions or challenged them before global trade arbiters. But most just quietly moved on, seeking trade with countries other than the US. Since 2017, trade has held more or less steady at just under 60% of global GDP. But there’s been a decline in the US share of trade flows offset by an increase in other regions. Trump 2.0 seems likely to bring more of the same: trade without America.
Trends in many framing lumber markets were unchanged amid persistent uncertainty regarding tariffs and frigid temperatures across much of the US. …Western Canadian producers sold cautiously while awaiting clarity on potential tariffs. Buyers had few immediate needs and were content operating with lean inventories despite the threat of volatility. Prices were little changed in overall dull trading. Lumber futures tracked a similar course in terms of interest, but downside was evident as the large premium in the front month eroded. The board fell each day week to date. Meanwhile, subfreezing temperatures across the South and historic snowstorms along the Gulf Coast brought Southern Pine trading to a near standstill. Traders operated with widely diverse views of whether President Trump’s threats of tariffs of up to 25% on Canadian imports as early as February 1 will actually become a reality.
OTTAWA — The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.8% on a year-over-year basis in December, down from a 1.9% increase in November. …The CPI excluding food rose 2.1% in December. A temporary GST/HST break on certain goods was introduced on December 14, 2024. …The shelter component grew at a slightly slower pace in December, rising 4.5% year over year following a 4.6% increase in November. Rent prices decelerated on a year-over-year basis in December (+7.1%) compared with November (+7.7%). However since December 2021, rent prices have increased 22.1%. The mortgage interest cost index decelerated for the 16th consecutive month, reaching 11.7% year over year in December 2024, the smallest increase since October 2022 (+11.4%) as interest rates continued to rise.
Lumber prices fell toward $580 per thousand board feet, retreating from eight-week highs of $600 on January 16th, as the impending 25% tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, set to take effect on February 1st, weighed on the market. These tariffs, imposed by President Trump, will increase the cost of Canadian lumber, which is a key input for U.S. housing construction, potentially reducing demand as builders face higher material prices. The price hike could discourage housing projects, especially as the broader construction sector slows. Trump’s executive orders aimed at stimulating U.S. housing production, including efforts to lower construction costs, may further dampen demand for imported lumber by promoting domestic sourcing. As Canada is the largest supplier of U.S. lumber, the tariff’s impact on supply and demand dynamics is expected to be significant, with builders likely seeking alternatives as lumber prices rise.›
Calgary’s construction industry is hoping the threat of American tariffs doesn’t slow its momentum in 2025. …Bill Black, the head of the Calgary Construction Association, says when it comes to certain building materials, the tariffs could cause unrepairable damage. “Lumber suppliers selling are obviously going to feel a really significant impact on their volume that goes into the U.S.,” Black said. “The overall viability of the lumber business is based on a blend of the two markets, and if one market becomes unfeasible because of tariffs, that then puts pressure on the operating businesses. “That could impact their ability to service the Canadian market as well.” …The city has seen consecutive years of a record number of housing starts, and those in the sector don’t want to lose vital momentum. …Alberta’s forest ministry reiterated the importance of cross-border trade Friday, saying there’s still optimism a tariff-stopping solution can be found.
Construction costs account for 64.4% of the average price of a home, according to NAHB’s most recent 
President Donald Trump’s proposal to implement significant tariffs on the country’s key trading partners could have ripple effects on the U.S. housing market. …The tariffs could drive up prices for new homes and renovations, further straining an already tight market. “The tariffs will raise the cost of materials, which could directly increase the cost of constructing new homes,” said Wayne Winegarden at Pacific Research Institute. Experts said tariffs are a tax that increases the costs of imported goods, including building materials. …Higher material and construction costs caused by the tariffs could make buying a home out of reach for many people. “The tariffs will slow down the economy and will also encourage the Federal Reserve to pursue a higher interest rate environment,” Winegarden said. …Together, the higher rates coupled with the rising cost of construction will significantly reduce housing affordability.”
U.S. home prices rose 0.4% from a month earlier in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, slightly slower than the 0.5% growth posted in November. This is according to the Redfin Home Price Index (RHPI). …On a year-over-year basis, home prices closed the 2024 calendar year up 5.4%. That was the second-smallest annual increase in a calendar year since Redfin started tracking the RHPI in 2013, only trailing 2015 (5.2%). Redfin 
RUSS TAYLOR GLOBAL is pleased to provide the latest quarterly report from the 
Volumes of OCC (old corrugated containers) and mixed paper are shifting with societal and economic trends, industry experts said during a paper industry update webinar presented by the Recycled Materials Association. Box shipments in 2025 are likely to get off to their usual slow start, said Ryan Fox, at Bloomberg. …For full-year 2025, Bloomberg estimates box shipments at 385 billion square feet and more than 31 million tons, an increase of 0.5%-1% over 2024 levels. …Fox added, paper company executives have largely said they don’t see “any observable things happening in 2025 that are going to cause a major inflection in demand.” …TetraPak makes the case for poly-coated paper. …Graphic Packaging provides update on Waco mill
Georgia is the nation’s top forestry state, grappling with overproduction and the aftermath of severe storms which damaged timber supplies. Industry leaders and policymakers are turning to sustainable aviation fuel to boost the industry, create jobs and reduce carbon emissions. Sen. Larry Walker, R-Perry… said the growing demand for sustainable aviation fuel from companies like Delta Air Lines highlights its potential. However, he emphasized expanding production requires strategic federal policies and research to ensure long-term growth. “To invest in a facility that manufactures SAF, it’s a huge investment. It’s a long-term proposition,” Walker stressed. “We need some certainty out of Washington what the public policy is going to be, what the incentives to create this industry are.” …Walker added state lawmakers plan to introduce bills during the 2025 legislative session to support forestry innovation and expand sustainable aviation fuel production in the state.