Kevin Mason
Economic Outlook: Risks abound for 2026 and beyond but we see little chance of upside surprises for global GDP growth next year. Instead, we forecast modest declines in both US and Chinese GDP in 2026, with the Eurozone growth rate nudging up slightly from depressed levels. US-driven tariffs will stabilize but remain a drag and may become the norm for the next three years. As we’ve noted before, demand won’t be driving upside for the forest sector. Interest rate relief in the US continues to lag earlier expectations (with two further, 25bps cuts expected next year), and a US housing recovery will likely be pushed out to the second half of 2026 at the earliest (potentially 2027). A further weakening of the USD relative to other major currencies will create additional headwinds for US-based producers focused on exports but should also put downward pressure on US imports.
Forest Products Outlook: For most markets, the first half of 2026 will look a lot like 2025, with oversupply resulting in weak prices and lacklustre earnings. Highlights include:
- Housing starts will slip next year to 1.33MM as mortgage rates are expected to move only moderately lower. Affordability issues persist.
- Log prices should trend sideways, with some markets up and others down. Demand from China could rise as its US log ban has ended.
- Lumber prices will move up in 2026 as supply reductions related to high costs (duties, tariffs, etc.) begin to bite harder.
- Panel prices are likely to remain rather low in 2026 due to OSB (particularly) facing oversupply issues as a couple of mills ramp up.
- Pulp prices hinge on supply dynamics; the situation has changed as China has boosted its internal supply. Although prices are moving off their lows, shuts are needed to maintain upward momentum.
- Newsprint demand will drop by double digits next year, but, with some mills currently offline, prices should hold until supply restarts.
- Paper prices will be mixed, with expectations for an increase in uncoated woodfrees; most other grades should hold at/near year-end levels. The removal of tariffs would push prices lower.
- Containerboard producers are expected to drive a price hike in Q1 given the massive capacity shuts this year. Demand will remain sluggish, but rising box shipments aren’t needed to support hikes.
President Trump has delayed new tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities for a year, pushing their implementation to 2027, according to a 
The 
Canada and the U.S. will launch formal discussions to review their free trade agreement in mid-January, the office of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said. The prime minister confirmed to provincial leaders that Dominic LeBlanc, the country’s point person for US-Canada trade relations, “will meet with U.S. counterparts in mid-January to launch formal discussions”. …Carney met with the leaders of Canada’s provinces on Thursday to give them an update on trade talks. Canada is one of the most trade-dependent countries in the world, and more than 75% of Canada’s exports go to the country’s southern neighbor. But most exports to the US are currently exempted by USMCA. …Canada is the top export destination for 36 US states. Nearly $3.6 billion Canadian worth of goods and services cross the border each day. About 60% of US crude oil imports are from Canada, as are 85% of US electricity imports.
Since 2018, notes forestry watcher David Elstone, the British Columbia government has introduced more than 43 measures, policies, plans, systems, laws, reviews and reports about and affecting the BC forest sector. Meanwhile, there have been a series of closures and curtailments (permanent, temporary or indefinite) of sawmills and pulp mills, and thus workforce reductions. “And the fibre-supply crisis has continued to worsen, and . . . the industry is in far worse condition than ever before.” Elstone’s basic message: “Government has been busy designing change rather than figuring out solutions and moving forward. …Kim Haakstad, CEO of the BC Council of Forest Industries (COFI) echoes the analysis “There’s been a significant amount of change that hasn’t settled itself into the system, and there’s been no look at what regulatory efficiency can be achieved to make processes clearer, more transparent, and more accountable.”
MACKENZIE COUNTY, Alberta — An agreement with Calgary-based PowerWood Canada Corp. will bring two new wood pellet manufacturing facilities to the Mackenzie County region in Northern Alberta, Canada. Josh Knelsen, Mackenzie County Reeve, announced Dec. 23 the agreement. “This is a leading-edge, first-of-its-kind project in Canada that turns wildfire-damaged wood into clean energy and helps reduce reliance on coal,” said Knelsen. The two facilities represent the potential for up to 300 direct jobs,” with many more across forestry, construction, transportation, and local businesses. …Construction on two sites is expected to begin by mid-2026. …The facilities will also see the introduction of Canada’s first steam explosion pellet production process – developed by leading industrial systems engineers Valmet and capable of producing black wood biofuel pellets with 94% less carbon release than coal. …PowerWood Canada plans to open a second Alberta plant and has developed expansion plans for further plants in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.
WASHINGTON — A mandatory review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico-Agreement on trade kicks into high gear this year as US President Trump continues his campaign to realign global trade and poach key industries from America’s closest neighbours. …Since the president’s return to the White House, however, confidence in CUSMA’s future has waned. Trade with Canada may not be front of mind for Trump, said Fen Osler Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa and co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations. It’s more like the “proverbial iceberg,” he said. “It’s what you don’t see that matters. And that’s the kind of hidden economic wiring of a very deep and highly interdependent relationship.” …Trump has complained repeatedly about long-standing irritants in the United States’ trade relationship with Canada — the supply management system for dairy products, the alleged subsidization of the softwood lumber sector, other non-tariff barriers.
SUNDRE, Alberta – The general manager of what will soon become the former West Fraser – Sundre Forest Products said there will be no impact on staff or operations amid a corporate reorganizing. According to a December letter to vendors, West Fraser is “undertaking an internal corporate reorganization, whereby Blue Ridge Lumber, Spray Lake Sawmills, Crowsnest Forest Products, Sundre Forest Products, and Manning Forest Products will be amalgamated into one company and renamed West Fraser Alberta Wood Products Ltd.” The new entity is to remain a wholly-owned subsidiary of West Fraser Mills Ltd., and the amalgamation and rebranding will be effective as of end of day on Dec. 31. “There’s zero impact to operations,” said Jason Foote. “This restructure is administrative”.
CHEMAINUS, BC — Western Forest Products’ value-added division in Chemainus is receiving up to $7.5 million from the province to add two new continuous dry kilns to its manufacturing operations. The investment, from the province’s BC Manufacturing Jobs Fund, will allow WFP’s facility on River Road to expand the production of high-value products and create new opportunities for second-growth hemlock to produce higher-value products, as well as increasing the stability of the forest company’s operations on Vancouver Island. Minister of Jobs and Economic Growth Ravi Kahlon and Forest Minister Ravi Parmar joined Steven Hofer, CEO of WFP, to make the funding announcement, which is expected to strengthen Vancouver Island’s manufacturing sector. In addition, the ministers announced that 
China’s pulp and paper sector is witnessing transformative growth with Huatai Group’s announcement of its monumental 16-billion-yuan investment in a fully integrated forest-pulp-paper project located in Yulin, Guangxi. 
The BC Conservative leader fostered fear and falsehoods in his 
VICTORIA — The BC government says cutting red tape has allowed provincial pulp mills to more than double their use of timber salvaged from forest fires. The Ministry of Forests says in a statement that mills processed more than one million cubic metres of wildfire chips in 2024-25, up from 500,000 cubic metres in 2023, and representing about seven per cent of all processed wood. Forests Minister Ravi Parmar says that BC can’t let anything go to waste, including logs that have been burned in wildfires.” The statement says pulp mills rarely accepted burned timber before 2022, but both government and industry recognized the opportunity of turning wildfire-affected fibre into wood chips. It says that faster permitting and stronger partnerships between government and industry made it even easier to use that type of timber and the work will continue in 2026.
In 2025, the BC Wildfire Service (BCWS) worked tirelessly with people and communities to fight wildfires and build community resilience throughout the province. “We’re coming off our second-worst wildfire season in Canadian history,” said Ravi Parmar, Minister of Forests. “From technology to equipment and training, all to protect people and communities, the BC Wildfire Service has shown us that they are a global leader in wildfire work. Thanks to the dedicated members working tirelessly to fight the threat of wildfire. In 2026, we will raise the bar even higher. …Since April 1, 2025, more than 1,350 wildfires burned an estimated 886,360 hectares of land in B.C. The 2025 season compared to the past five years:
QUEBEC — A rare old-growth forest in Quebec’s Mauricie region is at the centre of a growing conflict between conservation advocates and the provincial government, after forestry roadwork was authorized in an area currently under review for protected status. The forest, known as the Grandbois Lakes forest, is located near Sainte-Thècle, in the Mékinac Regional County Municipality, northeast of Shawinigan. Composed largely of red spruce trees, the ecosystem is considered one of the last intact forests of its kind in southern Quebec. Despite its ecological value, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forests has approved the construction of a winter road through part of the forest — a step that could lead to logging in the coming months. The roadwork is slated to be carried out by the forestry company Forex Langlois. …Environmental groups and local residents gathered to oppose what they say is a threat to an irreplaceable ecosystem.
USDA on Monday published a notice in the Federal Register looking to update the reporting requirement for foreign land ownership under the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA). …The proposed changes come as Congress and state lawmakers have demanded more updates and better reporting on foreign ownership from USDA, spurred mainly by Chinese ownership of agricultural land. …USDA’s latest report on foreign agricultural land holdings shows people from outside the country own nearly 45 million acres of land, as of the end of 2023. That takes up about 3.5% of all privately-held agricultural land. Foreign holdings also increased by more than 1.5 million acres from 2022. Nearly half of foreign land holdings, 48%, are forest land, with 29% being cropland and 21% pastures. Canadian investors make up about one-third of all foreign holdings, or 15.3 million acres, followed by the Netherlands, Italy, the United Kingdom and Germany.
OREGON– The Bureau of Land Management’s state office in Oregon increased its timber sales in 2025, leading to one of its largest years for sales by board-feet and dollars in decades. The increase coincides with a provision of the tax and spending bill approved by Congress in July, that requires BLM to increase the timber it makes available for harvest by 20 million board-feet each year through 2034. BLM data show that the timber sales through the office totalled 290.6 million board-feet this year, an increase of 66.8 million from the previous year. …2025 was the third-highest year for BLM timber sales through the Oregon office by both board-feet and sale price, topped only by 2019 and 2021. Sales this year brought in $63.7 million.
DENVER — Vast swaths of the ponderosa pine forests that blanket Colorado’s Front Range mountains could turn rust-colored and die over the next five years as pine beetles begin to spread aggressively, new federal forecasts show. Aerial surveys conducted by the U.S. Forest Service over the last year found evidence of rapidly spreading beetle infestations along the mountains and foothills that stretch from southern Larimer County to southern El Paso County, including the western flank of metro Denver. Already, pockets of dead trees are visible from Interstate 70 and U.S. 285. The rapid uptick in beetle-killed trees near the state’s largest cities and major highways prompted state leaders to form a task force this month to grapple with the outbreak. Gov. Jared Polis 
STARKVILLE, Mississippi — For all the major investments and structural changes in 2025, marked by significant sawmill expansions, shifting market dynamics and continued pressure in the pulp and paper sector, Mississippi’s timber industry observed limited monetary change. The state’s total timber value for 2025 is estimated to be $1.47 billion, which is down 1% from last year. This year’s harvest amounted to 36.4 million tons of timber products, which is down slightly from last year based on timber severance tax receipts. The value of standing timber paid to landowners as stumpage was $660 million, a 9% decline from 2024. The harvest and trucking industries, however, added $807 million to timber’s value in 2025, which was 7% more than last year. Eric McConnell, associate professor of forest business, said the industry experienced a sizable increase in the small pine sawtimber. …The forestry industry also faced pulp and paper headwinds. 
WISCONSIN — Hayward is the “first choice” for a German company considering building a $1.5 billion plant to convert wood and wood waste into sustainable aviation fuel, but the company also is talking to Minnesota, Michigan and other states, said Matthias Mueller, CEO of Synthec Fuels. …Hayward has good access to energy and to rail and highway transportation, it is not far from the Minneapolis and Chicago airports, and it is home to Synthec’s partner Johnson Timber, Mueller said. European investors have committed to providing $1.5 billion to build that plant, but Wisconsin lawmakers are working to make the state more attractive with the Forestry Revitalization Act that would provide $210 million in tax credits and loans. …The proposed plant annually would use 890,000 tons of woody biomass to produce 48 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel. 