Canada continues to stare down the barrel of the American trade war. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement faces its first big review in 2026. This country remains in a uniquely high-stakes moment. …This will, and will always be, an uneven fight. Canada is 40 million people and only the world’s ninth largest economy. A middle power is going up against the world’s richest and most powerful country. How exactly is it even possible for Canada to win in this asymmetric trade war? Crucially, this conflict isn’t just about steel, soybeans or softwood lumber – it’s about narrative and power. …US President Trump frames trade deficits as proof that the US is “losing”:
- Give Trump some face-saving concessions that look like a win for him
- Use oil, Canada’s unique economic hard power
- Play defence: Reform our corporate tax regime
- Northern gambit: Arctic crisis for trade leverage
[to access the full story a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the most sweeping of President Trump’s tariffs, a day after a US trade court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing the duties and ordered an immediate block on them. The United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington said it was pausing the lower court’s ruling to consider the government’s appeal. Wednesday’s surprise ruling by the US Court of International Trade had threatened Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs and additional tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China. The trade court ruled that the Constitution gave Congress, not the president, the power to levy taxes and tariffs, and that the president had exceeded his authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. …Trump administration officials had said they were undeterred by the trade court’s ruling, saying they expected either to prevail on appeal or employ other presidential powers to ensure the tariffs go into effect.
Tariff uncertainty from the Trump administration continues to impact home builders across the country, as builders prepare for potential price hikes and supply chain issues. …Lumber remains a primary concern, with countervailing and antidumping duties expected to more than double this fall. Steve Martinez, president of Tradewinds General Contracting in Boise, Idaho, recently spoke with CNBC to emphasize just how much lumber goes into the construction of a new home. “This entire house is built out of wood,” Martinez said. “I mean, we really do have wood on the floor, wood on the walls, wood on the ceiling. Can’t really get away from building a house like this without using a large number of wood products in the home.” As a result, price increases to lumber can cause a huge disruption for home builders. And lack of certainty adds complexity to the home-building process.
Domtar has been penalized $17,200 for nearly two dozen failures to control the release of emissions from its Skookumchuck, BC, mill. The kraft pulp mill was found to have violated pollution levels 23 times over eight months starting in 2021, according to a decision from director of the Environmental Management Act Bryan Vroom. On at least six occasions, the decision found Domtar failed to keep smoke emissions from a wood-waste-fired power boiler below the 40 per cent opacity required under its 2013 permit. …The company disputed the findings, arguing that a nearby air quality impact assessment showed the impacts to human health were “not significant” and that the ministry failed to show the violations would impact workers. In his decision, Environmental Management Act Bryan Vroom responded by reducing the severity of the failures to a level of “low to none.” …Domtar acknowledged the penalties in an email, and said it is working with B.C.’s environment ministry in response.
The Coalition for Fair Trade in Hardwood Plywood has petitioned for antidumping and countervailing duties to counter unfair trade practices by Indonesia, Vietnam, and China. These petitions were filed on Thursday, May 22, with the U.S. Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission and have significant implications for our economy, in which hardwood plywood plays a critical role in producing numerous downstream products. The Coalition for Fair Trade in Hardwood Plywood alleges that the governments of Indonesia, Vietnam, and China are actively subsidizing dozens of programs benefiting their industries, including providing products at subsidized rates and multiple grant, tax, and lending programs. 
SEELEY LAKE, Montana — A law passed during the 2025 legislative session could provide $6 million in low-interest rate loans for an entity that wants to start up a wood products facility. The measure could impact Seeley Lake, where Pyramid Mountain Lumber once operated. “I think the likelihood of you know, somebody coming here, obviously, there’d be opportunity at other mills as well, but they really like the, the ability to source timber from this site,” said Pyramid Mountain Lumber owner Todd Johnson. Johnson says the new law would incentivize anyone looking to open a new facility by providing funding for one portion of the total for opening a new mill. “I think the, the main designs behind it were so that it would allow somebody to secure a site. Six million dollars would go a long ways towards securing, you know, a site here in Montana,” said Johnson. 
YORK COUNTY — South Carolina’s New Indy paper mill… releases more of a powerful neurotoxin into the air than any other major paper plant in the country, a new report says. The amount of mercury leaving New Indy’s York County plant is 
A pause on some tariffs creates a window for Canadian companies to re-examine their risk profiles and work with brokers to secure needed coverage. Both Bay Street and Wall Street are cheering the ruling from the US Court of International Trade that, at least temporarily, tamps down the 10% tariffs the White House imposed on most countries, and drug-related emergency orders setting 25% tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico. …Some companies may use tariff lulls to stock up on certain key materials. …Construction companies, for example, often import flooring products from the US, even though Canadian builders have good access to lumber. For them, stockpiling those materials reduces the economic impacts of both US tariffs and Canadian retaliatory tariffs. …Additional optimism arrived via King Charles III’s Speech from the Throne this week. The document opening Canada’s parliament commits to major economic initiatives, including large-scale increases in housing construction.
New homes development got a shot in the arm this spring with April starts rising in Canada and the United States. Recent reports from TD Economics examined new home data in both markets, finding month-over-month rises in starts for April. In Canada, starts jumped 30 per cent month over month, marking the largest rise since June 2023. Driving growth was the multi-family family segment that saw starts rise 34 per cent, whereas single-family detached home starts gained six per cent from March. …TD noted the “bounce-back” in activity was not unsurprising given levels were so low to start the year. What’s more, housing starts could “be softening,” amid higher construction costs and lower immigration, it cautioned. In the U.S., activity was less robust by percentage growth. Starts there increased less than two per cent month over month.
The US economy shrank at a 0.2% annual pace from January through March, the first drop in three years, as President Trump’s trade wars disrupted business… a slight upgrade of its initial estimate. First-quarter growth was brought down by a surge in imports as companies in the United States hurried to bring in foreign goods before the president imposed massive import taxes. The January-March drop in gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — reversed a 2.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2024. Imports grew at a 42.6% pace, fastest since third-quarter 2020, and shaved more than 5 percentage points off GDP growth. Consumer spending also slowed sharply. And federal government spending fell at a 4.6% annual pace, the biggest drop in three years. …From January through March, business investment surged 24.4%. An increase in inventories — as businesses stocked up ahead of the tariffs — added more than 2.6 percentage points to first-quarter GDP growth.
Q1 2025 exports of Southern Pine lumber (treated and untreated) were 12% behind the same quarter in 2024 at 122 MMBF, but up 2% over the fourth quarter of 2024. On a monthly basis, Southern Pine lumber exports were down 20% in March over March 2024 but up 4.6% over February 2025. When looking at the report by dollar value, Southern Pine exports are down 7% to $50 million in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, but down 17% over the fourth quarter of 2024. Mexico led the way at $13.2 million, followed by the Dominican Republic at $10.4 million, and Canada at $4.3 million. The total global value in March hit a six-month high of $18 million. Treated lumber exports, meanwhile, were down 19% compared to the first quarter of 2024 at $28 million and down 6% over the fourth quarter of 2024.
The Red Flag Warning has been sounded by Alberta Wildfire. But what does it mean? It means conditions are ripe for the ignition and fast-moving spread of wildfires. The forest-fire experts use a sliding scale, first adopted by the U.S. National Weather Service, to determine how dry the conditions are in the forest areas, and how the wind could help fan the flames if that dry tinder is ignited. Basically, a score is calculated based on wind speed, heat and the lack of humidity. A sample document provided by Alberta Wildfire shows a hypothetical watch being created when the maximum daily temperatures is expected to hit 33 Celsius, the humidity is at 25 per cent or lower, and wind speeds are 10 km/h. Basically, when it is punishingly hot and dry, it doesn’t take a lot of wind to trigger an alert. “And, just like weather alerts, “watch” is one level below “warning.”
Is the Alberta government hell-bent on eliminating what remains of the two caribou herds that live in the mountains just north of Jasper National Park? Looking at the province’s recently released draft management plan for the Upper Smoky area, one might think that is the case. Let’s set this up: the motivation behind the sub-regional plan in the first place was to convince the federal government that the province was doing a good job of caribou conservation. Spoiler alert: they haven’t! Meanwhile, I can’t help but think of the irony that… the company which stands to benefit the most is a US-based forestry corporation, Weyerhaeuser. …For decades now, provincial governments have been promising to conserve and rehabilitate caribou habitat. And for decades, those governments have not made good on those promises. As discussed in previous Jasper Local articles, for caribou to have a chance, they need some space.
BRAZIL — Fallen logs are rotting, the trees grow sparser and the temperature rises in places sunlight hits the ground. This is what 24 years of severe drought looks like in the world’s largest rainforest. But this patch of degraded forest, about the size of a soccer field, is a scientific experiment. Launched in 2000 by Brazilian and British scientists, Esecaflor — short for “Forest Drought Study Project” in Portuguese— set out to simulate a future in which the changing climate could deplete the Amazon of rainfall. It is the longest-running project of its kind in the world, and has become a source for dozens of academic articles. …This resulted in the loss of approximately 40% of the total weight of the vegetation and the carbon stored within it from the plot. The main findings were detailed in 
On May 22, the European Commission released its long-awaited country benchmarking classifications under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). …After years of development, one might have expected a risk classification tool robust enough to help companies navigate the complex terrain of global sourcing. Instead, the rankings are poised to mislead businesses into thinking certain countries are “low risk” when the realities on the ground tell a very different story. …The EUDR sets out dual requirements: products placed on or exported from the EU market must be both “deforestation-free” and “produced in compliance with the laws of the country of origin.” However, the EC’s benchmarking appears to focus overwhelmingly on deforestation metrics and existing EU political sanctions—giving little attention to equally critical issues like governance, corruption, and law enforcement capacity. Findings from Forest Trends’ 
BRUSSELS – According to a document obtained by, 11 governments are urging the European Union to delay or weaken its upcoming deforestation law. This policy, a world first, aims to stop the 10% global deforestation caused by EU imports of soy, beef and palm oil, among other products. However, it has become a controversial part of Europe’s environmental agenda. After complaints from Brazil and the US and a reduction in reporting rules, the EU has already delayed its launch for a year, until Dec. 2025. The Commission announced last week that it would spare most countries from the strictest checks. A group of eleven countries led by Austria, Luxembourg and Germany, have demanded that the European Commission further simplify the rules and delay the application date. …The countries’ paper, that the EU agriculture ministers in Brussels will be discussing on Monday, said the requirements are “disproportionate” to the regulation’s goal.
