Canada’s lumber industry is at a tipping point, as Trump calls for more tariffs in response to Ontario’s Reagan TV ad. In related news: industry leaders say the additional tariff is uncalled for; Carney distances himself from provincial ads; Trump declines to meet Carney; West Fraser’s James Gorman says BC’s system needs reform; Greg Stewart explains Sinclar’s production reductions; and trade-expert John Weekes says don’t count on USMCA negotiations resolving the matter. Meanwhile: US inflation ticks up; US cabinet sales decline; and Fannie Mae’s GDP forecast rises.
In Forestry news: BC’s Forest Advisory Council says changes are needed; Quebec’s Safety Board releases report on skidder-operator death; Nova Scotia debuts the Fairy Creek documentary; and Oregon seeks input on Public Lands Rule. Meanwhile: World Resources Institute says wildfires are burning at twice the rate of 20 years ago; BC Forest Professionals and Nova Scotia Woodlot Owners focus on wildfire prevention; and the US government shutdown is impacting wildfire mitigation in Oregon.
Finally, after 16 years, BC Forest Safety Council CEO Rob Moonen is retiring in March 2026.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog Editor
FORT MILL, South Carolina and MONTRÉAL and RICHMOND, BC — Domtar is proud to celebrate its one-year anniversary of uniting under a single brand: Domtar – The Fiber for the Future. The year has been one of expansion, achievement and living Domtar’s new values. “Reflecting on the last 12 months, I’m deeply impressed by the extraordinary progress our teams have made,” said John Williams, Non-Executive Chairman, Management Board. “Their hard work and commitment have been essential to the success of this integration. While we can’t acknowledge every achievement today, it’s important to pause and recognize the milestones that define our first year as one company.” They include: Reaching a historic agreement with Tla’amin Nation…; Investing in Wisconsin and the Rothschild Dam…; Donating lands to the Nature Conservancy of Canada… ;Publishing our first unified sustainability report…; Expanding our network in point-of-sale receipt rolls… ; and Winning industry recognition.
President Trump said that he, personally, wants to attend next month’s Supreme Court hearing on his tariff policies. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments, beginning on November 5th, whether the president can unilaterally impose tariffs under emergency powers and is acting legally in his bypassing of Congress. The case involves the import tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China, over allegations of fentanyl trafficking, as well as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. …Canada is suffering under some of the toughest US tariff actions for some of its largest export sectors — the auto industry, along with steel, aluminum, and Canada’s softwood lumber. …John Weekes, one of the chief Canadian negotiators of the original North American Free Trade Agreement said a lot of Canadians seem to be holding onto hope that Trump’s tariff war will disappear when the USMCA is renegotiated next year. To that, John Weekes says don’t bet on it.
Industry leaders say they are disappointed with the additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods announced Saturday by US President Trump… over Ontario ad. Jean Simard of the Aluminum Association of Canada said that this announcement is “very unfortunate and uncalled for.” …“I don’t think it’s going to add anything to the situation that the U.S. will be facing moving into the fall season with prices that will be increased by these stacked up tariffs on everything that moves into the U.S.” A $75-million television ad from the Ontario government, featuring remarks by former US President Reagan on tariffs is what prompted Trump to announce he was ending trade discussions with Canada. …“We might see the same phenomenon that unfolded in the course of the months of July and August, where our metal started moving towards Europe instead of the U.S,” Simard said. 
SASKATCHEWAN — A massive pile of logs that caught fire Monday morning at the Meadow Lake Mechanical Pulp yard was continuing to burn Tuesday, and fire crews say the blaze won’t stop anytime soon. “It’s actually probably going to burn for at least a week, maybe longer, just due to the amount of material burning,” Meadow Lake fire department Chief Joe Grela said. …“We’re probably talking about 100,000 cubic meters of logs here, so quite an immense material,” Grela said. The company that owns the mill, Domtar, said the destruction of the wood is a huge loss. …”It’s always unfortunate when something like this happens, but it’s particularly unfortunate at a difficult time for the sector across the country.” The mill’s wood room was shut down as firefighters kept an eye on the smouldering logs. The fire department said the rest of the mill was running as usual.
Efforts are underway to diversify and strengthen British Columbia’s forestry sector with a new office in London, England. The office will be a hub for BC’s forestry sector to expand its market share across Europe and the United Kingdom. “British Columbia is the second largest exporter of softwood lumber in the world, and with US President Trump’s continued attacks on our forestry workers and economy, we are not sitting idly by,” said Ravi Parmar, Minister of Forests. BC’s Crown corporation, Forestry Innovation Investment (FII), will be expanding its presence to the U.K. to work with the forestry industry there, around Europe, and eventually, select markets in the Middle East and northern Africa, to grow BC’s forestry sector footprint internationally. This new office will give B.C.’s forestry sector a representative to help expand growing wood markets in the UK and Europe. …This is the newest FII office, joining offices in China, India and Vietnam, and industry-led offices in Japan and South Korea.
The judges at New Brunswick’s highest court are wrestling with how to award costs in the first part of a massive and complex litigation that has entangled the province’s biggest landowners. The New Brunswick Court of Appeal heard arguments from three timber firms that successfully argued their case in preliminary motions in a lower court in the Wolastoqey Nation’s big title claim for about 60% of the province’s territory. …Lawyers for J.D. Irving, Acadian Timber, and H.J. Crabbe and Sons argued that because the case is so complex and important for the rights of all private properties in the disputed territory, they deserve a bigger payout. …The case is expected to cost millions over the years. This is one of the reasons the Liberals say they decided the government should settle the dispute. …The judge said the court would make its decision known at a later date.
Luke Lindberg, U.S. under secretary of agriculture for trade and foreign agricultural affairs with the USDA, in conjunction with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, has announced a three-point plan to increase exports, advance rural prosperity, and chip away at the trade deficit. The three-point plan includes:
PORT OF LONGVIEW, Washington — If Northwest Advanced Bio-Fuels has its way, the Port of Longview may soon have a $2.4 billion sustainable aviation fuel plant. But the mega-project to turn timber waste into jet fuel has faced a slew of challenges on its way to landing at the giant riverfront Barlow Point site, a deal that’s still not inked after nearly four years. The people behind Northwest Advanced Bio-Fuels say the project is mere weeks away from finding the financing needed to lock in a site and build the plant — the first of a handful of additional facilities around the region to fulfill Delta Airlines’ immense need for sustainable aviation fuel. To port officials, however, the project is one of about 20 that have considered its flagship Barlow Point site, any one of which could put money down today and start the long process of realizing a mega-project there tomorrow. 
LITTLE ROCK — Arkansas’ leading industry, agriculture, is facing a crisis. But it’s not just row-crop farmers that are struggling — the forestry industry is as well. The market for timber has become so bad that mills are closing and loggers are getting out of the business. “This is devastating to the timber industry in South Arkansas. Eight of the last 11 weeks, we have experienced mill closures in Arkansas, some permanent, some temporary,” said John Dawson, president of Arkansas Pulpwood Co. in Camden. “We’re seeing loggers drop out. Lifelong families that are two, three, four generations of loggers are getting out of the business. Banks in South Arkansas are moving away from loaning money to loggers,” Dawson said. As you’d expect, demand for paper has plummeted. …But demand for lumber is down too. …There’s simply too much supply for the diminishing demand.
The Bank of Canada cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 per cent on Wednesday, but signalled that it may end its easing cycle there if the economy operates in line with its latest forecast. …Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said, “If the economy evolves roughly in line with the outlook in our Monetary Policy Report, governing council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while.” …The central bank presented its first baseline forecast since January after trade war uncertainty prompted policymakers to instead assess multiple potential scenarios. After a contraction in the second quarter, the bank expects weak growth for the remainder of 2025, with 0.5% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter and 1% growth in the last quarter of this year. It projects GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6& in 2027.
US tariffs on key Canadian goods and weakening global demand triggered a sharp pullback in exports in the second quarter of 2025, according to new data released by 
Lumber futures tumbled toward $560 per thousand board feet, a seven-week low, as weakening demand, persistent oversupply, and trade-policy uncertainties converged. US tariffs are intensifying pressure on Canadian softwood, with existing antidumping and countervailing duties around 35%, plus new Section 232 levies of 10% on timber and 25% on wood products, lifting import costs above 45%. Weak demand compounds the decline, with US residential building permits at a seasonally adjusted 1.4 million units in July, the lowest since June 2020, and construction spending down 3.4% from May 2024. Housing starts remain near five-year lows, keeping retail price pass-through muted despite higher import costs. Export channels have narrowed, with Canadian softwood constrained by tariffs and hardwood exports to China dropping from 40% of volume in 2017 to 7% today. Temporary curtailments and mill closures are emerging, yet abundant inventories and sluggish construction sustain downward pressure. [END]
Let’s keep this simple: lumber and steel are two of the biggest drivers of flatbed freight in this country. …So where are we right now, closing out 2025? Lumber futures are sliding off their highs and steel demand is soft with some pockets still running hot. That combination is sending a pretty clear message to flatbed haulers: expect mixed demand instead of broad “every lane is on fire” demand. Some regions will stay busy. Some will get quiet. …Lumber futures have fallen back into the $590–$610/mbf range, down double digits from that August spike, and recently touched the lowest levels in weeks. …There are two main reasons for that weakness: Housing affordability is still brutal. Inventory is sitting. So instead of steady flatbed freight — lumber from mill to yard, yard to jobsite, jobsite to next jobsite — you get pauses. …Lumber and steel tell the truth before the broader market does. 
Lumber futures tumbled toward $590 per thousand board feet, a near one-month low, as weakening US housing activity and pre-tariff front-loading left wholesalers awash with stock while stacked US duties on Canadian imports and trade uncertainty pushed prices lower. US homebuilding has slowed, with housing starts falling 8.5% in August to a 1.307 million annualized pace and building permits drifting lower. Many US buyers front-loaded inventories ahead of expected import tariffs earlier this autumn, leaving distributors to work down excess stock before fresh order flow returns. On the supply side, a 10% Section-232 tariff added in mid-October atop roughly 35% in existing duties lifted border costs above 45% for many Canadian shipments, forcing sellers to find new markets or accept lower domestic prices. Producers like Interfor have trimmed output since mid-October, but the cuts are too recent to significantly reduce inventories or regional log supply.
VANCOUVER, BC —
OTTAWA — Some economists say surprisingly strong September inflation figures will give the Bank of Canada pause ahead of its interest rate decision next week. Annual inflation accelerated to 2.4% last month, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. That’s a jump of half a percentage point from 1.9% in August and a tick higher than economists’ expectations. …The September inflation report will be the Bank of Canada’s last look at price data before the central bank’s next interest rate decision on Oct. 29. The central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2.5% at its last decision in September. The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation showed some stubbornness in September, holding above the three per cent mark. “This will make the Bank of Canada’s decision a bit more interesting next week than previously expected,” said BMO chief economist Doug Porter.
Lumber futures fell below $610 per thousand board feet, their lowest level since October 8 and down 12% from a three-year high in early August, as a slowing US housing market outweighed potential supply curbs from tariffs. August building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.33 million, the lowest since May 2020, while housing starts fell 8.5%, marking the fourth-lowest reading in over five years. Earlier this month, the US imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian lumber, with the Trump administration stating it aims to expand domestic timber harvesting and reduce reliance on foreign lumber. Looking ahead, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could stimulate construction and home buying and encourage homeowners to borrow for repairs and renovations, the largest driver of lumber demand. However, signs of a slowing labor market and rising inflation suggest demand may remain subdued.
Alain Ouzilleau, owner of Groupe Cabico, spent millions upgrading his two factories in Quebec and Ontario into state-of-the-art facilities shipping around $100-million worth of high-end kitchen cabinets to the US each year. Almost overnight, that business has been thrown into jeopardy. …“We have very long-term loyal customers,” Mr. Ouzilleau said. “But the 50% that is planned to be effective January 1st is just a death sentence.” …Hundreds of other Canadian cabinet and furniture makers also stand to lose their key export business, with limited ability to expand in a crowded domestic market. …What started as tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles has expanded to include copper and lumber, with a tariff on heavy trucks slated to come into force in November. The Trump administration is also conducting investigations into aircraft, semiconductors and industrial machinery, among other industries, suggesting more tariffs are on the horizon. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
Shares of D.R. Horton took a hit Tuesday, as the home builder confirmed that the market for new houses was still weak, and it wasn’t just because prices and mortgage rates were too high — people are afraid to shell out so much for a new house when they’re worried about the economy and their jobs. …But even with lower prices and mortgage rates, the number of homes closed fell 1.2% to 23,368, which was below the average analyst estimate. And that weakness comes despite higher incentives to home buyers to boost sales, which pushed profits below what Wall Street was expecting. …Chief Executive Paul Romanowski said affordability was certainly still an issue. But consumers were also concerned about the “volatility and uncertainty” in the economy, which may be leading to worries about the job market. It certainly won’t help matters to see large layoff announcements from high-profile companies.
Section 232 tariffs were once seen as a fortress for US metals. Yet, that fortress now casts a much longer shadow. Companies far removed from the steel and aluminum sector could soon find themselves ensnared in tariffs they never imagined, thanks to the inclusion process for “derivative” products. The Trump Administration has steadily expanded Section 232 authority well beyond their original steel and aluminum targets, to copper, automobiles, trucks, lumber, and even wooden cabinets. These tariffs, which range from 10% (for lumber) to 50% (for steel and aluminum), are layered on top of normal import duties. At first glance, these measures appeared to strike only those industries handling raw materials. But in 2025 the Administration sought to close what it saw as a loophole: downstream products containing tariffed metals that could enter duty-free. As a result, section 232 tariffs were imposed on the raw material and a finite list of derivative products.
Anthony Cabrera, who started working with a contractor in March to construct the three-bedroom house, was eager to get ahead of a fresh round of tariffs on key building materials and home items that took effect earlier this week. Mr Cabrera had already seen his initial budget of roughly $300,000 balloon to $450,000 as prices for a range of products. …A recent report from Goldman Sachs found that US consumers will shoulder as much as 55% of the cost. It takes time to raise prices on consumers, the economists noted, and US firms will increasingly pass on costs in the coming months. The new tariffs “will create additional headwinds for an already challenged housing market” Buddy Hughes, chairman for the NAHB, said. Affordable housing construction could be hit particularly hard, said Elena Patel, of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. …Matthew Walsh, at Moody’s Analytics, said that cost uncertainty will be the most immediate effect.
Ireland must realise the “massive opportunity” that exists as timber construction is set to triple market value and deliver climate action, Forest Industries Ireland (FII) said. The director of FII, Mark McAuley has welcomed a 
More companies that provide rayon, lyocell and modal to fashion brands are sourcing less from ancient and endangered forests, according to the nonprofit Canopy. Although the vast majority of cellulosic fibers are still spun from virgin materials, some of the biggest producers have been quickly adopting forest-friendly and circular materials. 70% of companies making semi-synthetic, cellulose-based fibers now exhibit green practices that reduce pressures on forests. 54% of fiber producers that the group tracked have reached the nonprofit’s favorable green rating. …Canopy uses this annual report in part to help brands make informed sourcing decisions. The use of recycled materials for such fibers is still rare, although it grew to 1.1% in 2024. Such textiles represent only 6% of the global fiber market, according to Textile Exchange. It found that fibers approved by Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) or other certification made up as much as 70 percent of cellulosic fiber market share.
The world’s largest green timber label will vote next week on whether to begin work on new traceability rules, amid renewed scrutiny and accusations over whether the body is doing enough to prevent fraud within its supply chains. The Bonn-based Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) bills itself as “the world’s most trusted mark for sustainable forestry.” …But forestry experts and whistleblowers have alleged for years that the FSC lacks a proper control system, allowing bad actors to fraudulently pass off timber that was illegally or unsustainably logged as FSC-certified. Phil Guillery, who was the FSC’s integrity director from 2011-21, 
QUESNEL, BC — Given what’s going on around the world, it’s easy to understand why more areas in BC are taking a closer look at the Community Forest form of log harvesting tenure. It returns the management and responsibility for small, designated areas of forest land back into the hands of appointed people who live, work and care about them. Some control of what happens to and on the forest land in their own back yard has a growing appeal to its residents. …A community forest attempts to better accommodate other land users. …Co-operating with others as one cohesive unit becomes the catalyst for achieving dynamic, site specific land use solutions. It’s challenging but exciting work. It requires administering a cocktail of flexibility and responsiveness. Nick Pickles understands all that. It’s part of the appeal to being manager of the Three Rivers Community Forest based in the Cariboo region. 
North Cowichan Mayor Rob Douglas has, again, sent a letter to Minister of Forests Ravi Parmar asking the province to help increase the amount of timber that the municipality’s saw and pulp mills have access to. Douglas said that three tree-farm licenses held by Western Forest Products supply much of the timber and fibre for local mills. He said that improving access to timber in these areas could help stabilize mill operations and reduce the impact of challenging market conditions and trade pressures. Douglas said Parmar’s mandate is to ensure a sustainable land base to enable the harvest of 45-million cubic metres of timber while the province is on track to harvest only 29-million cm this year. …The Domtar pulp mill in Crofton, along with Western Forest Products’ sawmills and remanufacturing plant in Chemainus and Cowichan Bay, collectively employ more than 670 workers and generate $7.7 million per year in property taxes for North Cowichan.
For the Northwest Territories government’s 2024 Forest Health Report, published last month, researchers were only able to survey about one third of the area they would normally study. Smoke from nearby wildfires reduced visibility for crews on the ground and in the air, making it difficult for researchers to do their work. Even so, one of the report’s findings is the sheer impact of a drought that has covered much the NWT since June 2022 – and its effect on forests. Of about four million hectares of forest surveyed by researchers in 2024, more than 220,000 hectares showed stresses from either the ongoing drought or the high water of 2020 and 2021, the report asserted. Because the survey work was limited by factors like smoke, researchers think the real extent of the issue “is likely substantially larger.” …Drought can contribute to tree and plant mortality, which in turn creates fuel for wildfires. 
HALIFAX – A documentary on BC’s Fairy Creek blockade is making waves in Nova Scotia. “Fairy Creek” covers a period of eight months in 2021, when thousands of activists blockaded logging roads leading to old-growth forests on Vancouver Island. …Now, it’s getting a Nova Scotia debut with screenings in Halifax, Tatamagouche, Inverness, Annapolis Royal and Wolfville. …Neal Livingston, a Nova Scotia filmmaker, says… “We don’t have a history of that (in Nova Scotia).” Livingston says the film is especially timely for Nova Scotians, as activists in Cape Breton say they have been targeted by recent legislation. …The province introduced an omnibus bill that would make blocking forest access roads illegal and come with a fine of up to $50,000 and/or six months in jail. This fine is a steep increase from the current $2,000 penalty.
The bipartisan Fix Our Forests Act passed out of the Senate Agriculture Committee on Tuesday morning, marking the first advancement of the bill since it previously stalled in committees under both the Biden and the previous Trump administration. The Act would create an interagency Fireshed Center focused on wildfire prediction and tracking, establish fireshed management areas in forests with high wildfire risks, and expedite the review of wildfire-related forest management projects under the National Environmental Policy Act. The act has gained support from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, along with numerous environmental and wildfire-focused organizations. Critics of the Act claim it would further open up 
EUGENE, Oregon — With the Trump administration poised to rewrite forest management policy, groups are on guard for changes to climate and lumber harvesting sections. Travis Joseph has a message for environmental groups worried that the Pacific Northwest’s oldest trees are about to fall to loggers: Timber companies don’t really want to cut them down. Joseph, who heads a timber industry group and is a former aide to ex-Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon, made that proclamation. …“I love these trees, too,” said Joseph, CEO of the American Forest Resource Council (AFRC). “But they’re at risk. Let’s save them. Let’s come in here and protect them.” Joseph’s group says the threat to big trees in western Oregon — these giants were 5 or 6 feet across at the trunk — isn’t logging. It’s wildfire that’s becoming a bigger menace as climate change makes summers hotter and reduces the winter snowpack. [to access the full story a subscription is required]
CLANCY, Montana — Healthy forests depend on a strong forest products industry. Sawmills help support thousands of Montana jobs, reduce wildfire risks, and provide a renewable resource. Despite recent mill closures in Missoula and Seeley Lake, Marks Lumber in Clancy continues to carry on. …Both Roseburg Forest Products in Missoula and Pyramid Mountain Lumber in Seeley Lake closed last year. Marks Lumber has been open for 36 years, and they have adapted to industry changes before. “ …In light of the recent closures, they have made some changes, including shifting to more board production (processed wood) rather than the raw tree, which is more expensive to manufacture, and slowing down on how much logging they do. Marks Lumber also had to change where their sawdust and chips go. Roseburg used to buy that material, but now they send them to Weyerhaeuser Forest Products in Columbia Falls.
Chopping down rainforests is daft. The social costs of clearing a typical patch of Brazilian Amazon are perhaps 30 times the benefits of rearing cows on it, by one estimate from 2023. The problem is, those costs, which include aggravating climate change, are spread across the entire world’s population, whereas the profits from cutting down the trees go to the men commanding the chainsaws. Somehow, the world has to find a way to make conservation pay. …Yet there is hope. Though Brazil lost more rainforest than any other country last year, due to to wildfires, it also shows how better policy can make a difference. …The pace of deforestation fell by 80% during Lula’s first terms (2003-11), and fell again when he returned in 2023, before the wildfires set things back. …Since preserving rainforests is a global public good, the world should help pay for it. [to access the full story an Economist subscription is required]
PASCAGOULA, Mississippi — A fire is burning inside one of the wood pellet domes at the Port of Pascagoula. The fire started Monday afternoon inside one of the two Enviva domes at the port. Jackson County Emergency Management Director Earl Etheridge said there is no danger of explosion. Jackson County firefighters are on scene to assist Enviva and port crews. The fire started Monday afternoon inside one of the two Enviva domes at the port. …Etheridge says that Enviva is injecting the dome with pressurized nitrogen to suppress the fire. The fire is contained to the dome. Crews are working to offload the 20,000 metric tons of wood pellets. 
Google has announced plans to address greenhouse gases beyond carbon dioxide by purchasing credits to support the emerging market for removing short-lived but highly potent “superpollutants.” The company will buy up to 25,000 tonnes of superpollutant-destruction credits by 2030 from two organisations, Recoolit and Cool Effect—equivalent to about one million tonnes of CO₂ removal over the long term. While carbon dioxide remains a key focus, Google said gases such as methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide have a much greater near-term warming impact. “It’s the right thing to do for the planet,” said Randy Spock, Google’s carbon credits and removals lead. “CO₂ is obviously very important… but if we think only about CO₂, then we’re just looking at one piece of the puzzle.” …Sam Abernethy, a climate scientist at Spark Climate Solutions, said: “Superpollutants only get a few percent of climate finance… that’s a misallocation given their importance.”
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) rose faster in 2024 than in any year since records began. …Our new satellite analysis shows that the Amazon rainforest is struggling to keep up. And worryingly, the satellite that made this discovery could soon be switched off [due to proposed NASA budget cuts.]. Systematic measurements of CO₂ in the atmosphere began in the late 1950s. …Across six decades of measurements, CO₂ has gradually increased. …The largest change was over the Amazon, where much less CO₂ is being absorbed. Similar slowdowns also appeared over southern Africa and southeast Asia, parts of Australia, the eastern US, Alaska and western Russia. Conversely, we detected more carbon being absorbed over western Europe, the US and central Canada. …It’s not yet clear whether 2023-24 is a short-term blip or an early sign of a long-term shift. But evidence points to an increasingly fragile situation, as tropical forests are stressed by hot and dry conditions.