Kevin Mason
The US administration’s goal is clear: reduce imports and boost domestic manufacturing of wood products. Eliminating lumber imports would require an additional ~14Bbf of US domestic lumber production, representing a 40% increase on current production. …The big challenge in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) is that key infrastructure is missing: logging infrastructure, sawmill infrastructure and human resources. Logging infrastructure would require increasing logging employment, and that has been on a downward slope for decades as young people find other, similarly paid work more attractive. Third-party contractors could provide logging (and permitting) support, but they would face the same problems of scaling up. Harvest restrictions since 1994 have resulted in large-diameter timber now so the logs are no longer an appropriate size for local mills. Also, roads need to be built.
Unlike in the PNW, federal lands in the South have remained active suppliers of timber, along with other willing timber suppliers (including REITs and private landowners). …If the U.S. were to replace all (or the majority) of lumber imports, we would expect to see new supply coming from the South. …Replacing imports would take a decade, at least, and cost more than $10B for sawmills alone (potentially much higher with escalating costs for steel, machinery, etc.). We also highlight challenges, albeit different ones from the PNW. Investment is a big one. In an uncertain global macroeconomic environment, we do not expect to see major capital investment announcements. …Another big challenge is end-market demand from housing activity. If construction materials and labour costs rise meaningfully on tariff and immigration policies, affordability will decline and the near- term rationale for capital investment will be eroded—even if tariffs have forced housing prices higher (i.e., the stagflation scenario).
BINGEN, Washington — A plywood mill in the southern Washington city of Bingen will close next month and lay off all 81 workers, the plant’s operator said Thursday. The SDS facility has been operating — with occasional stoppages — since 1949. It uses older equipment, according to Wilkins, Kaiser & Olsen, which was part of a consortium of firms that acquired the mill in 2021. “Regrettably, the long-term challenges and the magnitude of the required investment render continued operation unsustainable,” the mill’s operators said. An adjacent stud mill, planer mill and marine facility will continue operating. Bingen is a small city just across the Columbia River from Hood River. WKO and an affiliated business, Mt. Hood Forest Products, are adding 60 full-time positions to increase their output by 35%. The firms said they will consider hiring some of the laid-off workers.
A federal judge in Jackson, Mississippi, issued an order April 28 allowing a lawsuit by a newspaper publisher and lumber company against the Mississippi River Commission (MRC) to proceed. The lawsuit alleges a lack of transparency in meetings. The suit was originally filed in September 2024. Emmerich Newspapers Inc., which publishes dozens of publications across Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas, sued the MRC over what it claimed were secret meetings where proper records were not kept and the public was not notified or admitted. Emmerich was joined as plaintiff by a lumber company that manages hundreds of acres alongside the Mississippi River. The lumber company claims the Corps of Engineers’ decisions on flood control, informed by advice from the MRC, adversely affect its properties. The judge’s decision allows the lawsuit to proceed without ruling on the merits of the allegations.
Lumber futures fell below $550 per thousand board feet, hovering at yearly lows as excess supply from winter restocking collided added to a decline in demand. A 14.2% drop in U.S. single-family housing starts to an annualized 940,000 units in March, pushed new-home inventories to nearly eight months of supply. While a federal directive to raise timber production from public lands by 25% may ease constraints in the long term, the 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs has removed near-term urgency for buyers to cover import risks. At the same time, expectations of sharply higher anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber have prompted mills to hold back supply, further pressuring prices as domestic inventories accumulate and demand remains subdued despite the onset of the spring building season.
Uncertainty over international trade barriers has caused significant fluctuations in lumber prices in recent months, according to Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter. “The whipsaw fatigue of conflicting tariff announcements over two months had Western Canadian suppliers hoping to see the market settle down,” Kosman. …Some stakeholders held off on buying lumber altogether, while others ordered early in hopes of securing delivery ahead of any potential trade restrictions. “Others decidedly switched their purchasing to Southern Yellow Pine from SPF,” Kosman says. …Data from the WWPA indicates US sawmills were running at only 67% of full capacity in January, compared to 72% for the full-year 2024. In Canada, sawmill utilization was 74% of capacity, down just one percentage point compared to the previous year. …“At this time, there is significant lumber supply able to come back online at existing facilities should demand improve into the summer.”
NEW YORK, NY — Mercer International reported first quarter 2025 Operating EBITDA of $47.1 million, a decrease from $63.6 million in the same quarter of 2024 and $99.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, net loss was $22.3 million compared to $16.7 million in the first quarter of 2024 and net income of $16.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, Chief Executive Officer, stated: “There was continued strength in pulp markets and an improving lumber pricing environment in the first quarter of 2025. However, our operating results in the quarter were negatively impacted by annual planned maintenance downtime at our Celgar mill and the impact of the weaker dollar against the euro.
VANCOUVER – Western Forest Products reported improved financial results in the first quarter of 2025, as compared to the same period last year. Net income was $13.8 million in the first quarter of 2025, as compared to a net loss of $8.0 million in the first quarter of 2024, and a net loss of $1.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. …lumber production of 134 million board feet (versus 145 million board feet in Q1 2024); average lumber selling price of $1,533 per mfbm. …North American markets are expected to be volatile due to concerns around the economic impact caused by potential further US tariffs and retaliatory tariffs. The spring building season which typically leads to gains in softwood lumber demand could be more muted. …In Japan, the spring housing demand is stronger than expected and channel inventories have declined. …Demand for our Industrial lumber products in North America are expected to strengthen as supply remains tight across all species.
Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the first quarter by 0.3%, with imported goods being a large contributor to the decline as the suppliers prepared for President Trump’s tariff proposals once he took office. NAHB estimates this should even out in the second quarter. Other economic data of note are inflation, which is still elevated but creeping downward, and the unemployment rate, which remains low but may edge up among economic uncertainty. …NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz hasn’t hit the panic button yet. And I still think that we don’t know what President Trump’s economy really is yet. It’s been policy by sledgehammer, and now they’re going to start putting the pieces back together.” NAHB Senior Officers and staff continue to actively engage with lawmakers on this and other policies, including a special BUILD-PAC Capital Club event this week featuring an interview with Sen. Tim Sheehy.
To kick off National Home Remodeling Month in May, which promotes the benefits of hiring a professional remodeler, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has highlighted 
Prime Minister Carney has pledged billions of dollars in financing for makers of prefabricated homes to help end the country’s housing shortage. Experts say the plan is visionary – and laden with risks. Mr. Carney has promised to provide $25-billion in loans and $1-billion in equity financing for companies that largely build homes in factories rather than on construction sites. The federal government will also place bulk orders of prefabricated housing to help jump-start a nascent industry. …It’s a big, bold bet that could make it faster, cheaper and more environmentally friendly to build a chunk of the 3.5 million homes that Canada needs to add by 2030. But factories need sustained demand, a large enough market and streamlined production. That’s what must weave out of the web of housing bureaucracy and hyperlocal rules that currently tangles up residential construction, the experts caution. [to access the full story a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
May is Invasive Species Action Month and 33 organizations throughout BC will be able to continue their work fighting invasive plants, due in part to a funding boost. …Ravi Parmar, Minister of Forests said “No one person, group, agency or government can effectively control invasive plant species alone, and collaboration is critical to everyone’s success. The work these groups do is crucial in our fight to ensure BC’s environments remain healthy and vibrant.” …Nearly $3 million will go toward groups, such as regional invasive species committees, local governments, environmental groups, researchers and the Invasive Species Council of BC, to continue collaboration and support of invasive plant programs and management actions. …Gail Wallin, executive director, Invasive Species Council of British Columbia said, “Invasive plants are estimated to cost us over $2 billion in losses annually.”
MOUNTAIN VIEW COUNTY, Alberta – Provincial officials elevated the wildfire danger rating to extreme across the Rocky Mountain House Forest Area Saturday after five new wildfires ignited in the area in recent days. Parts of Mountain View County are included in the forest area, namely west of Sundre and Bergen, covering Coal Camp and Bearberry west of Range Road 60 from Township Road 312 to the north boundary of the county. “The wildfire danger is now extreme in the Rocky Mountain House Forest Area,” the province said in its May 3 update for the forest protection area. “Dead and dry vegetation continues to be a major concern, as it is highly flammable and provides an easily available fuel source for wildfires.” …On Thursday, two wildfires were discovered in the Rocky Mountain House Forest Area while three more were discovered on Friday.
Firefighters from Fort St. John and the B.C. Wildfire Service were battling a blaze that prompted evacuations late Thursday, the city said. The fire is in the Fish Creek Community Forest on the northern outskirts of the city. …The wildfire service website indicates the out-of-control blaze was discovered Thursday and spanned an estimated 0.56 square kilometres — about four times the size of Granville Island in Vancouver — as of 7:32 p.m. The suspected cause of the fire is human activity. The fire is one of nearly two dozen active across BC on Thursday, as the provincial government warned that a combination of warm, dry conditions and strong winds would raise the fire risk in southern parts of B.C. It’s one of two blazes classified as burning out of control, the other being a 1.85-square-kilometre blaze that began as two separate fires about 30 kilometres southwest of Dawson Creek, which is south of Fort St. John.