It’s home building season and lumber prices are plunging due to ailing demand and over supply. In other Business news: JD Irving presents plan for $1.1B Saint John’s pulp mill upgrade; Manitoba will create 20-year forestry plan with three First Nations; and two BC First Nations chiefs say the province’s permit process is handcuffing industry. Meanwhile: positive timber stories thanks to BC’s Mass Timber Demonstration Program; an Oakland, California developer; the Insurance Journal; and the 2024 Paris Olympics.
In Forestry/Wildfire news: Chief Randy Moore updates US Forest Service’s hiring & retention plan; federal judges rule on logging and road building in two of Montana’s National Forests; BC moves to protect 300 hectares of old-growth at eight sites; controversy in Oregon State University’s research forest; and Arizona attacks wildfire that forced evacuations near Phoenix.
Finally, BC wildfire ecologist Bob Gray opines on the need to rethink wildfires.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog Editor
Every few years, we witness new vocabulary emerge into the BC forest sector’s world. The most recent term to emerge is resilience. …The question is, will it become another passing buzzword, lead towards true, positive changes to advance our sector, or will it be a cloak for protectionism? BC’s forest sector has long been a cornerstone of the province’s economy and culture deeply intertwined with the natural environment, providing livelihoods for thousands and sustaining communities. However, the sector is currently facing unprecedented challenges that require innovative and resilient approaches. In this context, building multi-dimensional resilience means considering comprehensive environmental, economic, and social factors to ensure the forest sector can adapt and thrive in the face of these stresses.
In early 2023, Canfor closed the original mill as it was too old and oversized for the available timber supply, later announcing they would move forward in with building a new, smaller mill. In May 2024, they then announced, “we have made the difficult decision to suspend our plan to build a new state-of-the-art sawmill in Houston, as we are not confident that an investment of this magnitude can be successful at this time.” …This announcement may look somewhat like many sawmill closures from a lack of fibre in BC, but this one is much more serious. It is a message to government that BC is “uninvestable” as some analysts have stated due to policy changes that create business uncertainty. …In terms of BC marketing, permanent mill closures and withdrawn investments are some of the worst news a lumber exporting region can deliver to world markets. …What a shame it has gone this way, and so quickly.
The twin-peaked lumber bubble of 2021 and 2022 is now nothing more than a memory. Spot lumber prices have plummeted 75% from their May 2021 record high to just $366 this week. …While the demand side of the lumber market is ailing, the supply side may be in an even worse position. …“It’s a classic bullwhip,” Jalbert noted. “The supply side [responds] in a like manner to demand, and by the time it comes to the market that demand picture is already changed—and in this case in a negative way.” …Jalbert also believes lumber prices will likely stagnate through year-end 2024, but in 2025, he argues things could turn around. Some sawmills will be forced to slow or shut down production due to depressed lumber prices in the second half of this year, lowering lumber supply—“the bullwhip in the opposite direction.”… “But that’s going to take time.”
The threat of increasing climate risks has energized the transition to a low-carbon economy. However this transition comes with its own set of risks and challenges. …These are evident in insurance perspectives on two of the most popular green industries: green building and the use of new materials like mass timber, and solar energy. They also are playing out in how insurers and agents view writing green business risks. …In April, USGBC jumped into resilient building by announcing its draft rating system, LEED v5. Centered around three areas, LEED v5 will seek to advance improvements in decarbonization, quality of life, and/or ecological conservation and restoration. One example, McBride and Zurich NA are bullish on is the use of mass timber for constructing larger buildings. …The growing interest in mass timber projects led to an update to the International Building Code in 2021. Now towers can be built as high has 25 floors.
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SACRAMENTO, California — Swaths of California sweltered Tuesday and things were only expected to get worse during the Fourth of July holiday week for parts of the United States, with nearly 90 million people under heat alerts. The torrid conditions were being caused by a ridge of high pressure just off the West Coast and a separate ridge that spawned heat warnings and advisories from Kansas and Missouri to the Gulf Coast states, according to the National Weather Service. California’s capital, Sacramento, was under an excessive heat warning expected to last until Sunday night, with temperatures forecasted to reach between 105 degrees and 115 degrees. …About 70 miles north of Sacramento, crews working in scorching conditions were battling a wildfire in Butte County that forced the evacuation of about 13,000 people in and around Oroville. The governor’s office announced late Tuesday that federal funding had been approved to help with firefighting efforts. 
As of June 28 there were only 88 active wildfires in B.C. — mostly in the northeast part of the province — with none considered to be wildfires of note (a fire that is highly visible or poses a threat to public safety). Seventy-four of those fires were under control, and 12 (all in the northeast) were out of control. Two were listed as “being held”, one of them the Tiffin Creek wildfire near Lillooet, which was discovered on June 24 and listed at 151 hectares as of June 28. Rains in May and June have helped the drought situation, but snowpack levels are very low. …So far this year, B.C. has recorded 285 wildfires, with 57 (20%) caused by lightning. Fifteen fires (5%) are of undetermined origin. The remaining 213 wildfires — 75% of the total — were human-caused.