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Business & Politics

Tariff wars: Canada’s new prime minister faces a trade war with the US president

By Samee Lashari, professor at Houston Community College
The News International
March 16, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Canada and the United States are one of the most connected pairs of economies in the world. The daily volume of the bilateral trade is about $2 billion. Prominent Canadian exports to the US include energy products, particularly oil, natural gas and electricity; automotive products, including vehicles and auto parts; forestry products such as lumber and paper; agricultural goods, notably grains, livestock, dairyand processed foods; and metals and minerals like aluminum and steel. In 2023, the volume of US-Canada trade was over $750 billion. More importantly, this trade is quite one-sided; 75 percent of Canadian exports end up in the United States. …So far, Americ’s trading partners have responded to the tariff actions in a tit-for-tat manner. Any new tariff from the United States has received an immediate reaction from the European Union and Canada alike. Coupled with geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine war, it seems a whole new great reset in action. 

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Softwood showdown: Canada touts superior lumber quality as US escalates trade battle

By Brent Jang
The Globe and Mail
March 17, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

As the cross-border trade war escalates, Canada’s softwood lumber industry has an advantage on its side that no tariff can completely erase – its product is objectively better than much of the timber harvested from US forests. Softwood supplies, especially from BC and Alberta, are widely viewed as more desirable for wood framing because the growth rings are tighter than those found in lumber in the US South. In the milder climate of the U.S. South, the growing season is much faster. It takes about 35 years before southern yellow pine (SYP) trees are harvested. …Canada’s secret weapon, however, is hiding in plain sight. Tighter growth rings tend to result in quality two-by-four or two-by-six SPF boards for home builders, meaning walls that will stay straight. Compared with American SYP lumber, Canadian SPF is also lighter in weight. …Eastern SYP is currently selling at lower prices when compared with SPF. “SYP is an imperfect substitute for SPF,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew McKellar said. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]

Related coverage by Kevin Klein in The Winnipeg Sun:

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Canadian ministers, Ontario premier to meet with Lutnick as tariff fight continues

By Kelly Malone
The Canadian Press in CP24 News
March 13, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

WASHINGTON — Canadian officials are set to meet with the U.S. commerce secretary in Washington today — days after a dust-up with U.S. President Donald Trump that ended with Ontario pausing its surcharge on electricity exports to the United States. Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman and Ontario Premier Doug Ford are meeting with Howard Lutnick, and Ford says his goal for the meeting is to get a coherent sense of the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs. …Elsewhere in the American capital, Trump’s choice for the next U.S ambassador to Canada is set to take questions today as the relationship between the two countries is strained by tariffs and threats of annexation. Pete Hoekstra, a former Michigan congressman, is scheduled to appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for a nomination hearing.

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Trump is furious that Canada won’t take his tariffs lying down

By the Editorial Board
The Wall Street Journal
March 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Doug Ford

President Trump wanted a trade war with the world, and Americans are getting it, good and hard. Stock prices continued to decline on Tuesday amid the latest Canada-U.S. tariff tit-for-tat. Ontario premier Doug Ford said he was raising the price of his province’s electricity exports to the U.S. by 25% in response to Mr. Trump’s on-and-off 25% tariffs on Canada. Mr. Trump went ballistic, even by his standards. …His exhortation that Canada become a US state is a tacit acknowledgment that the two economies are deeply integrated. His splendid little tariff war will harm businesses and consumers on both sides of the border. …Ontario’s Mr. Ford and Mr. Lutnick plan to meet Thursday. …The trouble with trade wars is that once they begin they can quickly escalate and get out of control. …We said from the beginning that this North American trade war is the dumbest in history, and we were being kind. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription s required]

Related coverage in:

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New tools allow B.C. to rapidly respond to US tariffs

Government of British Columbia
March 13, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Legislation has been introduced to strengthen BC’s ability to respond quickly to threats of tariffs imposed on Canada by the US, to grow a more self-reliant economy, and to defend workers and businesses. …If passed, the act will enable the BC government to be nimble in its response, giving government time to develop more long-term responses. A focus on expanding interprovincial trade and moving procurement away from American vendors will help encourage greater reliance on goods and services made in Canada. …The act will automatically be repealed by 2027 at the latest. …The legislation allows government to: ​1. Temporarily modify the application or effect of BC laws and regulations to defend BC from challenges brought on by the continued tariff and sovereignty threats. …2. Reduce or eliminate barriers to interprovincial trade. …3. Impose tolls/fees on specified vehicles using provincial public infrastructure such as highways …4. Provide procurement directives to public bodies.

Related coverage in:

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A Canadian forests minister says US relationship changed ‘forever’

Reuters in Yahoo! News
March 13, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Ravi Parmar

VIDEO STORY: “If there’s one thing that we’ve learned from the threat of President Trump’s tariffs is our relationship with the United States has changed forever. Not just on lumber, but on all goods and services.” “The president ran on this campaign of building more housing. This tariff, this tax, is really a tax on middle class Americans. Middle class Americans who just want to build homes in their communities… are going to have to pay more, in some cases 20% to 30% to 40% more just to build their home or rebuild their home.” “We think we can continue to play a role in supporting the infrastructure that Americans need. But also, we’re going to diversify, and I think in the future, there will be a president in the future that will be coming screaming to Canada, saying we need your lumber.”

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Northern Pulp seeking $2.5 billion in private-public funding to build new pulp mill

By Michael MacDonald
The Canadian Press in CTV News
March 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

HALIFAX — Northern Pulp, the company behind a Nova Scotia mill that shut down four years ago amid environmental shortcomings, says it will cost $2.5 billion to build a new, cutting-edge plant on the province’s southwest shore. But the company says the proposed project, which will require private and public funding, does not currently meet its required rate of profitability — and it wants until early May to secure financing. “The company will use the extension period to continue working to identify … potential financing opportunities,” the company said. “The company will begin steps to prepare for a sales process of Northern Pulp’s assets if a new mill is not feasible.” The insolvent company, owned by Paper Excellence Group also said it will be asking a BC judge to extend its court-ordered protection from creditors on Friday. The Nova Scotia government said that as a secured creditor, it would agree to a five-week extension.

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With Trump’s zigzag actions on trade, March came in like a lion and won’t be going out like a lamb

By Calvin Woodward
The Associated Press
March 15, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

WASHINGTON — A gobsmacked planet is wondering what’s next from President Donald Trump on the tariff spree he’s set in zigzag motion. In recent weeks, Trump has announced punishing tariffs against allies and adversaries alike, selectively paused and imposed them, doubled and then halved some, and warned late in the week that he’ll tax European wine and spirits a stratospheric 200% if the European Union doesn’t drop a 50% tariff on U.S. whiskey. His ultimate stated goal is clear: to revive American manufacturing and win compromises along the way. But people and nations whose fortunes rise and fall on trade are trying to divine a method to his machinations. So far, he’s spurred fears about slower growth and higher inflation that are dragging down the stock market and consumer confidence. “His tariff policy is erratic,” Robert Halver, at Germany’s Baader Bank, said. “So, there is no planning certainty at all.”

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Who’s hit by tariff war crossfire? Wine, plastics and pulp & paper top list of sectors

By Peggy Corbin & Gerardo Fortuna
Euro News
March 14, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

European industry is scrutinising the list of products drawn up by the European Commission in response to US tariffs on steel and aluminium, and not everyone is pleased. EU tariffs on American products are adversely affecting EU manufacturers of wines, plastics and pulp among other sectors relying on imported products hit by tariffs or caught as collateral victims of the trade war between both sides of the Atlantic. …The European pulp and paper industry has also reacted after seeing imports of the products from the US on the EU list. The EU imported €962 millions’ worth of pulp and €650 millions worth of paper and board from the US in 2023. In exchange European exports of pulp and paper and board were worth €238 million and €2.4 billion respectively. The sector has no interest in a trade war with the Americans. Jori Ringman, Director General, said that “EU and US consumers who need basic hygiene products” were going to be impacted as well as “a whole range of sectors using paper packaging.”

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Lutnick sets April 1 public comment deadline in copper, lumber import review

By Doug Palmer
PoliticoPro
March 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has formally launched two Section 232 investigations that could lead to import restrictions on copper and lumber and timber, according to Federal Register notices scheduled for publication on Thursday. Trump signed an executive order on Feb. 25 ordering the copper probe and another on March 1 for lumber and timber. Both instructed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to start the investigations, which threaten to further strain trade relations with Canada and other trading partners. The Section 232 law allows up to 270 days for a probe, but White House officials said they expect Lutnick to move faster. In one sign of that, BIS set an extremely short period for public comment in the two investigations, ending on April 1. that coincides with the deadline for executive branch agencies to compete a number of trade reports for the White House. [to access the full story a PoliticoPro subscription is required]

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New Hampshire rural communities need trade stability

By Jameson French, Joe Carrier & Jason Stock, Northland Forest Products
The Concord Monitor
March 13, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

Anyone following the ongoing trade and tariff debate could ask, “Why would a lumber company or timberland owners care about international trade or tariff issues?” The answer is simple: The logs and lumber we grow and mill are sought after around the globe. New Hampshire is the second most forested state in the nation. …Logs and lumber flow freely across New Hampshire’s northern border with Canada, while international markets purchase lumber and logs grown and milled in the Granite State. But growing and processing logs into lumber takes time. The investments made by land and mill owners to grow, mill, dry and plane lumber take months and, in the case of growing timber, decades. …During the last trade conflict with China and Canada in 2018, several northern New England hardwood sawmills saw a 40% decrease in lumber value and sales. Meanwhile, their raw material costs increased as much as 18%.

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Vietnam wood exporters wary about surging tariff pressures

Vietnam Investment Review
March 13, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

In 2025, Vietnam’s wood industry is targeting $18-18.5 billion in total export value, up 10%-15% on-year. Ngo Sy Hoai, vice chairman of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (Viforest), revealed that under normal conditions, the goal would be achievable. However, in the current context of global trade turbulence, it is hard to determine whether the target will be realised. US President Donald Trump recently instructed the Department of Commerce to investigate under Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act regarding wood and wood products. This could result in tariffs of up to 25% on sawn wood and forestry products, effective as of April 2. The US is accounts for over half of Vietnam’s wood exports, primarily furniture, interior and exterior wood products, carpentry, and refined products, with some plywood, laminated boards, and several other products also being exported. Hoai noted, “Vietnamese wood businesses are on tenterhooks.”

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EU responds to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs with 26 billion euros in tariffs on US products

By Simone de la Feld
EU News
March 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

Ursula von der Leyen

BRUSSELS – “Strong and proportionate,” and above all, immediate countermeasures. The European Union… returns the favor to its overseas ally. From April 1, Brussels will apply tariffs on US goods worth up to 26 billion euros. While striking with one hand, Ursula von der Leyen extends the other toward Donald Trump: “We will always remain open to negotiation,” the EU leader said. The European Commission “deeply regrets” Trump’s move. …The EU has planned a two-step response: from April 1, the old rebalancing measures to the 2018 and 2020 tariffs, which apply to a range of products from boats to motorcycles to liquor like bourbon, will be reinstated. …A new package of tariffs on US products will go into effect in mid-April. This second round of countermeasures will cover steel and aluminum, textiles, leather goods, home appliances, household utensils, plastics, wood products. …Products subject to these measures include lumber, plywood, veneer, flooring, chipboard, fiberboard, pulp, and paper products.

Related coverage in Euro News: Trump escalates with 200% tariff on EU alcohol imports

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AF&PA Applauds Overdue EPA Regulatory Reconsiderations

The American Forest & Paper Association
March 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON – The American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) President and CEO Heidi Brock today issued the following statement in response to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin announcing actions reconsidering or ending various regulations that present growing challenges to U.S. pulp, paper and wood products manufacturers: “AF&PA has long communicated the need to dramatically improve the regulatory process to better serve the public interest, create jobs and strengthen the competitiveness of U.S. pulp, paper and wood products manufacturers. …In particular, AF&PA notes significant progress on the following:

  • Reconsideration of Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards, which has created permitting gridlock across the country (PM 2.5 NAAQS)
  • Ending the “Good Neighbor Plan,” which inappropriately included our industry as we did not meet the statutory criteria
  • Reconsideration of multiple National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for manufacturing sectors (NESHAPs), which will avoid unachievable rules with significant costs and limited benefits

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Sherwood Lumber Announces Leadership Transition: Michael Goodman Named President

By Sherwood Lumber
Newswire
March 14, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

Andy Goodman

MELVILLE, New York — Sherwood Lumber, a national distributor of building materials, announced that Michael Goodman has been appointed as the company’s new President. This transition marks an important milestone in Sherwood Lumber’s 70-year history, as Michael succeeds his father, Andy Goodman, who has led the company for nearly four decades. Andy Goodman will remain actively involved in the company, continuing to support its growth and vision, while stepping back from day-to-day decision-making. …Michael Goodman has spent his career working across all aspects of the business, playing a key role in Sherwood’s continued success.

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EU tariffs to target US wood products

By Larry Adams
The Woodworking Network
March 14, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

President Trump has enacted additional tariffs. This time with countries in Europe and as a result the European Commission is ready to retaliate with tariffs of its own including tariffs on a variety of wood products from the United States. …According to the National Hardwood Lumber Association, the European Union has proposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. wood products in response to U.S. tariffs on European steel and aluminum. These tariffs, which include lumber, veneer, moulding, flooring, plywood, OSB, and more, are set to take effect in April after a consultation period this month. …President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said:  “The countermeasures we take today are strong but proportionate.” …She said the countermeasures will be introduced in two steps. Starting with April 1 and fully in place as of April 13.

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Malaysia’s timber industry faces threats on two fronts – US tariffs and CITES

By John Gilbert
The Sun
March 17, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: International

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — The proposed classification of two timber species commonly found in Malaysia as unsustainable by the United States and the European Union (EU) under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) will result in the cancellation of Malaysian timber exports to the US and the EU. The Timber Exporters’ Association of Malaysia (TEAM) treasurer Wong Kar Wai said that in addition to impending tariffs, the US and the EU are proposing to classify certain timber species common to Southeast Asia, including Malaysia – namely Shorea, locally known as Meranti, and Apitong, known as Keruing – under CITES despite being sustainably harvested and processed. “Keruing is a special type of timber primarily used for floorboards, with the US being its main market. A major buyer is the US military, which uses Keruing for the flooring of trucks and tanks due to its durability and strength.

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Finance & Economics

Canada’s housing start slowed 4% in February

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
March 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the annual pace of housing starts in February slowed four per cent compared with January. The national housing agency says the seasonally adjusted annual rate housing starts came in at 229,030 units for February, down from 239,322 in January. The result came as the pace of starts for single-detached homes fell one per cent to 56,273 in February compared with 56,794 in January. The rate of all other housing starts dropped five per cent to 172,759 in February compared with 182,529 a month earlier. CMHC says the seasonally adjusted annual pace of starts for cities with a population of 10,000 or greater fell five per cent in February to 209,784 compared with 220,074 in January. …The six-month moving average for the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts in February was 239,382, up 1.1% from January.

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US Builder Confidence Falls to 7-month Low on Cost Uncertainty

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
The NAHB Eye on Housing
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Economic uncertainty, the threat of tariffs and elevated construction costs pushed builder sentiment down in March even as builders express hope that a better regulatory environment will lead to an improving business climate. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 39 in March, down three points from February and the lowest level in seven months. …Construction firms are facing added cost pressures from tariffs. Data from the HMI March survey reveals that builders estimate a typical cost effect from recent tariff actions at $9,200 per home. Uncertainty on policy is also having a negative impact on home buyers and development decisions. …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell three points to 43 in March, its lowest point since December 2023. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers dropped five points to 24 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 47.

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Trump tariffs on lumber and appliances set stage for higher costs on new homes and remodeling projects

By Alex Veiga, Mae Anderson and Anne D’Innocenzio
The Associated Press in CTV News
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The Trump administration’s tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and China — some already in place, others set to take effect in a few weeks — are already driving up the cost of building materials used in new residential construction and home remodeling projects. The tariffs are projected to raise the costs that go into building a single-family home in the U.S. by US$7,500 to US$10,000, according to the NAHB. We Buy Houses in San Francisco, which purchases foreclosed homes and then typically renovates and sells them, is increasing prices on its refurbished properties between 7% and 12%. That’s even after stockpiling 62% more Canadian lumber than usual. …The timing of the tariffs couldn’t be worse as this is typically the busiest time of year for home sales. …Confusion over the timing and scope of the tariffs, and their impact on the economy, could have a bigger chilling effect on the new-home market than higher prices.

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Trade turmoil forecast to slash growth in Canada and Mexico

By Faarea Masud
BBC News
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Trump’s escalating trade tariffs will hit world growth and raise inflation, the OECD has predicted. Canada and Mexico are forecast to see the biggest impact as they have had the harshest tariffs imposed on them, but US growth is also expected to be hit. …Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports. The US has also imposed 25% tariffs on other imports from Mexico and Canada – with some exemptions – and a 20% levy on Chinese goods. Canada and the EU have announced retaliatory tariffs. …Canada’s economy is predicted to grow by just 0.7% this year and in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 2% for both years. Mexico is now forecast to contract by 1.3% this year and shrink a further 0.6% next year, instead of growing by 1.2% and 1.6%. Growth in the US has also been downgraded, with growth of 2.2% this year and 1.6% in 2025, down from previous forecasts of 2.4% and 2.1% China’s growth forecast will fall slightly to 4.8%.

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Value of building permits issued in Canada decreased in January

Statistics Canada
March 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

In January, the total value of building permits issued in Canada decreased by $425.8 million (-3.2%) from the previous month to $12.8 billion. Ontario (-$771.1 million) led the decline, while New Brunswick (+$356.8 million) tempered it the most. On a constant dollar basis (2017=100), the total value of building permits issued in January declined 2.5% from the previous month, while it was up 13.4% on a year-over-year basis. …Across Canada, 23,500 multi-family dwellings and 4,900 single-family dwellings were authorized in January, down 3.7% from the previous month, but up 37.4% on a year-over-year basis. …The value of non-residential building permits decreased by $113.0 million (-2.7%) to $4.0 billion in January, a fourth consecutive monthly decrease. The industrial component (-$285.0 million) drove the decline, followed by the institutional component (-$87.4 million). The commercial component (+$259.4 million) mitigated the decline in the non-residential sector.

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Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75%

By Jenna Benchetrit
CBC News
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The Bank of Canada has cut its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent, it announced on Wednesday. In a note explaining the decision, the bank said the economy started the year strong, with solid GDP growth and inflation within its two per cent target. But tariff uncertainty caused by the on-again, off-again trade war between Canada and the U.S. has weighed on business spending and hiring, and shaken consumer confidence, the decision said. It’s “against this backdrop” that the central bank decided to cut the rate by a quarter point, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem wrote in his remarks. …Macklem has noted in the past that the bank cannot shield the Canadian economy from the financial impact of tariffs, but that it can instead use interest rates to manage a potential surge in inflation.

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How tariffs are affecting lumber pricing

By Neil Agarwal, Frisco Woodline
The HBS Dealer
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

I have received several questions from owners and contractors regarding what to expect with lumber prices given the tariffs (or the potential of tariffs, depending on the day). The short answer is prices will go up. The long answer is much more complicated and hinges on a number of factors and considerations. 1. Almost 30 percent of the lumber used in the U.S. each year comes from Canada. …2. Any tariffs or potential for tariffs creates opportunistic price increases. …3. Demand, however, doesn’t seem to be particularly strong for new construction at this time. …4. Tariffs do help to onshore manufacturing (a long-term positive), but the trees aren’t all in America. …In the short-term, tariffs create more uncertainty and increased pricing, which only further adds to the inflation story. In the long-term, tariffs on lumber won’t achieve the level of onshoring that can happen in other industries. 

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Lumber Futures Rebound Amid Trade War Escalation

Trading Economics
March 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures rebounded to around $650 per thousand board feet, nearing the two-and-a-half-year high of $658 touched earlier this month as escalating U.S. tariff threats on steel, aluminum, and dairy—along with the prospect of sharply higher auto tariffs—stoked fears of further trade restrictions, reversing the recent plunge. The renewed trade war tensions have heightened concerns that lumber could be the next target, prompting traders to reassess supply risks. Earlier, prices had dropped to around $600 after President Trump delayed a 25% tariff on Canadian softwood for the second time, temporarily easing supply concerns. The proposed levy, which would raise total duties to as much as 52%, could significantly strain North American production and push construction costs higher. However, the latest escalation in the trade war has reversed sentiment, with traders wary that lumber could still face new restrictions, driving speculative buying. [END]

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Conifex Timber reports Q4, 2024 net loss of $29.8 million

By Conifex Timber Inc.
Globe Newswire in the Financial Post
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

VANCOUVER — Conifex Timber reported results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024. EBITDA from continuing operations was negative $2.1 million for the quarter and negative $13.6 million for the year, compared to EBITDA of negative $3.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and negative $25.8 million for the year. Net loss was $29.8 million for the quarter while it was $11.8 million for the full year. …While there are signs that the macro-environment for the lumber industry is starting to improve, Conifex continues to review its options to improve liquidity. …Since January 6, 2025, we have been operating our sawmill complex on a two-shift basis and capturing the dual benefits of higher shipments and lower unit costs that a two-shift operation provides over a single-shift configuration. 

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GreenFirst Reports Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter of 2024

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc.
March 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

TORONTO — GreenFirst Forest Products announced results for the year ended December 31, 2024. Highlights include: Q4 2024 net loss from continuing operations was $26.6 million compared to net income of $14.8 million in Q3 2024. Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations for Q4 2024 was negative $0.9 million compared to negative $15.7 million in Q3 2024. …“Despite higher production, sales during Q4 were impacted negatively by weather-related disruptions that slowed our supply chain. …We continue to navigate the external challenges facing our business, including potential tariffs on exports to the US,” said Joel Fournier, GreenFirst’s CEO. 

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Timber prices set to rise with increased housing starts and investment

By Jennifer Coskren, Kyle Higgins, Lasse Sinikallas, & Austin Lamica
RISI Fastmarkets
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

For 2025, Fastmarkets predicts that total US housing starts and R&R will increase 4% and 1%, respectively. Therefore, prices of lumber, in theory, should increase as demand would increase to meet the growing housing and R&R markets. We anticipate US softwood sawlog prices will trend higher over the forecast. …Additionally, sawlog supplies in most of the major softwood-producing timber baskets outside of the US South will begin to tighten. …Total housing starts are expected to grow 3.7% over the medium-term forecast from 2024 to 2028. By the end of 2028, total starts will average 1.694 million units. This will mark the peak for this construction cycle as demographics ease through the long term. …Despite an anticipated uptick in Southern pine lumber prices in 2025, we predict that Southern pine sawtimber prices will continue to decline and support the persistently weak correlation between lumber and timber in the South.

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Tariffs to add as much as $10,000 to the cost of the average new home, trade association says

By Alex Harring
NBC Los Angeles
March 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

President Trump’s tariffs could increase material costs for the average new home by as much as $10,000, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The trade group said it has received anecdotal reports from members that Trump’s plan would raise material prices by between $7,500 and $10,000 for the average new single-family home. …The NAHB said softwood lumber is mainly sourced from Canada, while gypsum, a component of drywall, comes primarily from Mexico. Other materials like steel and aluminum — in addition to completed home appliances — are imported to the U.S. from China, the group said. An implementation of the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico as previously laid out by Trump would raise total costs for imported construction materials by more than $3 billion, according to the NAHB.

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Softwood Lumber Prices Continue to Lead Price Growth for Building Materials

By Jess Wade
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were up 0.5% in February according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase in January was revised downward to 1.1%. The Producer Price Index measures prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services. …The inputs to the New Residential Construction Price Index grew 0.7% from February of last year. …Among materials used in residential construction, lumber and wood products ranks 3rd in terms of importance for the Inputs to New Residential Construction Index. Prices for these wood commodities experienced little growth for most of 2024. Currently, softwood lumber prices were 11.7% higher compared to one year ago while on a monthly basis, prices rose 3.0%. This marks the fourth straight month where yearly price growth was above 10% for softwood lumber.

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US Inflation Eased Ahead of Tariffs

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Inflation slowed to a 3-month low in February, with decreases in airfares and gasoline partially offsetting shelter increases. Despite the easing, the report does not capture upcoming tariff impacts. The inflationary pressure from tariffs and trade war would weigh on the economy and complicate the Fed’s path to its 2% target. Meanwhile, while housing drove nearly half of February’s inflation increase and remains higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 3.4%, it continues to show signs of cooling – the year-over-year change in the shelter index remained below 5% for a sixth straight month and posted its lowest annual gain since December 2021. While the Fed’s interest rate cuts could help ease some pressure on the housing market, its ability to address rising housing costs is limited. …Consequently, the election result has put inflation back in the spotlight and added additional upside and downside risks to the economic outlook.

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Wood, Paper & Green Building

18-storey mass timber hotel proposed near Granville Island

By Kenneth Chan
The Daily Hive
March 12, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada, Canada West

A sizeable new hotel project is proposed for a prominent location immediately next to the south end of the Granville Street Bridge, and near the entrance into Granville Island. …Based on the City’s summary of the preliminary project details of the rezoning application, this would be an 18-storey, mass-timber, mixed-use hotel tower. At a height of 175 ft, this tower would slightly exceed the University of British Columbia’s 174-ft-tall Brock Commons Tallwood House student residence building, which was previously the tallest mass-timber building in the world when it was completed in 2017. According to Arno Matis Architecture & Urbanism, this would be North America’s tallest mass-timber hotel building. There would be a total of 168 guest rooms and a total building floor area of over 91,000 sq. ft. 

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Future Timber And Lumber Trade With India Takes A Positive Step Forward

Wood Processors & Manufacturers Association of New Zealand
Scoop Independent News
March 17, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: International

NEW ZEALAND — Signing of a ‘letter of intent’ on forestry co-operation between New Zealand and India as part of the Prime Minister’s delegation visit to India this week is welcomed by the Wood Processors and Manufacturers Association of Newzeald (WPMA). The ‘letter of intent’ is between the Ministry for Primary Industries and our nearest counterpart Indian agency, the Ministry of Environment Forestry and Climate Change. The key subject areas, reflecting MOEFCC’s and MPI’s respective mandates and scope, includes sustainable forest management; research and innovation; education and capacity building; and utlilisation and certification. …India is the most populous nation in the world yet for our forestry exports India currently ranks 11th (down from 5th in 2019). …With a recent ruling from the Indian government stipulating that federal housing schemes include ‘a greater mix’ of wood, there are new opportunities opening, for example, in the Indian residential market for our sustainable wood products.

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Forestry

BC town faces economic fallout after sheltering thousands fleeing Alberta wildfire

By Stefan Labbe
Business in Vancouver
March 11, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

VALEMOUNT, BC — “Everyone in Jasper and Jasper National Park must evacuate now,” warned Alberta emergency officials. On July 22, 2024, 30-kilometre-an-hour winds had swept two small fires into flames up to 50 metres high. Unable to contain the blaze, firefighters pulled back, and soon, thousands of people were sent fleeing. …But Jasper is not the only town suffering from the disaster’s fallout. As the fire approached, many fled west into the neighbouring province of British Columbia. Within hours, the Village of Valemount — BC’s northernmost resort town — ballooned with more than 20,000 people, more than 20 times its normal population. Locals opened their homes and restaurants. The municipal government set up public facilities for evacuees needing a place to sleep and bathe. …“We basically had 20,000 people. Then we had no people,” said Valemount Mayor Owen Torgerson. …By the time most of the displaced had left, Valemount’s August high season had passed.

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Can Washington boost timber production to counter tariff costs?

By Drew Andre
KING5 News
March 17, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States

WASHINGTON STATE is one of the most productive parts of the country for growing timber. Most of the timber is west of the Cascades and its annual production in the United States is only second to Oregon. However, harvesting faces significant constraints according to the Department of Natural Resources (DNR). DNR manages about two million acres of timberlands, but only half can be harvested due to challenging terrain or environmental protections, such as endangered species habitats. …Federal lands in Washington state currently produce minimal timber, and changing protected land status would require congressional action, not just presidential directives. Upthegrove, a Democrat, anticipates any attempts to increase federal timber harvesting would face lengthy legal challenges. In Washington state, over 70% of the timber harvested comes from privately owned forestland. …For these reasons, state officials believe Washington cannot realistically offset the costs associated with Canadian lumber tariffs.

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White House Executive Orders vs. Reality: Why Federal Timber Won’t Solve the US Lumber Shortage

By Global Wood
The American Journal of Transportation
March 17, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States

The US president recently suggested that domestic lumber production could be significantly increased by opening federal lands to logging. This move, he argued, would reduce US dependence on lumber imports from Canada and Europe. …At first glance, tapping into federal timber resources might seem like a logical solution. However, the reality is far more complicated. A combination of declining forestry expertise, legal challenges, labor shortages, infrastructure limitations, and lack of private investment incentives makes this an unrealistic path to reduce lumber imports to the US. …While the US president suggests that opening federal lands for logging could boost domestic lumber production, this is an unrealistic expectation. …Despite claims that the US no longer needs Canadian lumber, the reality is that imports from Canada and Europe will continue to play a crucial role in meeting US domestic wood demand in the future.

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The Felling of the US Forest Service

By Peter Slevin
The New Yorker
March 13, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States

With $2.6 billion in hurricane-recovery money on its way to the national forests of North Carolina, Jenifer Bunty, a US Forest Service disaster-recovery specialist, spent much of the week of February 10th working on a plan to start spending the money. Four months after Hurricane Helene, this meant deciding which bridges urgently needed to be rebuilt, which road repairs prioritized. …“The days of rule by unelected bureaucrats are over,” Donald Trump declared in his speech to Congress last week. For the White House, the firing of tens of thousands of federal workers like Bunty is evidence of “promises made, promises kept.” But for the Forest Service the loss of at least two thousand workers will make it harder to fight ever-worsening wildfires and storms across the country. …After the Trump cuts, a spokesperson for the USDA said that they didn’t include “operational firefighters,” a term Bunty had never heard. 

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Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy

Alberta set to build world’s first full-sized zero carbon cement plant

By Darius Snieckus
The National Observer
March 14, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: Canada, Canada West

EDMONTON, Alberta — The world’s first full-scale carbon-neutral cement plant could be operating in Canada within three years, following the signing of a key $275 million deal between the federal government and international materials supplier Heidelberg. Heidelberg’s cement manufacturing facility in Edmonton is to be fitted with a carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) system that would absorb one million tonnes of CO2 a year and inject it into a saline aquifer several kilometres underground. … “The CO2 emitted from power generation will be captured too. And we will recoup some cost by selling excess green electricity back onto the Alberta grid,” he said. …Cement — the carbon-intensive ingredient in concrete — currently accounts for 1.5 per cent of Canada’s total carbon emissions. …Heidelberg is also currently building a larger, industrial-scale cement plant with CCUS in Norway.

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Health & Safety

What Started the Dunbar Construction Fire?

By Isaac Phan Nay
The Tyee
March 13, 2025
Category: Health & Safety
Region: Canada, Canada West

VANCOUVER, BC — Last August, an apartment building under construction near Dunbar Street and West 41st Avenue went up in flames. The fire started on the fifth floor and rapidly engulfed the six-storey project before leaping to the homes next door. …Vancouver Fire Rescue Services Capt. Matthew Trudeau said due to the extreme damage the exact source of ignition cannot be known for certain and fire investigators have deemed it an accident. But The Tyee obtained a WorkSafeBC report that suggests the fire may have started because of fire hazards at the site including workers’ “improper spray foam application” and friction burn from drilling. …The WorkSafeBC report says the Vancouver Police Department investigated the fire and ruled out arson. The report says the fire service narrowed the origin of the fire down to the fifth floor and offered three theories on the fire’s origins and spread.

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Forest History & Archives

Steel of early Irish settlers forged in fires of suffering

By Andrew Hind
Bradford Today
March 16, 2025
Category: Forest History & Archives
Region: Canada, US East

Among the wave of humanity that came to Canada in the 19th century were hundreds of thousands of Irish, some of whom ended up in Bradford. …Between 1815 and 1840, about 450,000 Irish migrated to the British North American colonies. Cheap labour was needed in lumber camps and for construction of the Welland Canal and the Rideau Canal. Canada represented a new hope. Irish migration was encouraged by leaflets circulated by Canadian lumber merchants and the British government. For their part, lumber merchants realized money could be made in loading their vessels with would-be settlers on the return trip from Britain. …Irish migration to Canada increased when Ireland was struck by the Potato Famine due to widespread starvation. During this period, more than one million Irish died from starvation and resultant diseases. Even more fled overseas, many to Canada. …In 1847 alone, at least 110,000 Irish left Irish and British ports for Canada. The tragedy is many didn’t make it. …On this St. Patrick’s Day, raise a toast to them.

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