US tariffs on industrial sectors are now not expected April 2, but reciprocal levies on nations with trade imbalances are. In related news: Part II of a Tree Frog Special on Trump’s Re-emergence and Political Risk in the Canadian Forest Sector; Alberta council urges province to support its forest industry; and a US columnist says Canada stands accused of… subsiding Americans. Meanwhile: US remodelling soars but struggles to find labor; and Gene Wengert, the infamous Wood Doctor, has died at 82.
In Forestry/Wildfire News: Canada invests in wildfire training; whitebark pine restoration makes progress in BC and Alberta; ENGOs call for more conservation in BC; and US tree planting is cut due to DEI measures. Meanwhile: a new UK report on mass timber benefits; and Canfor partners in pursuit of formaldehyde-free wood adhesives.
Finally, Amazon faces a greenwashing lawsuit; while a Georgia jury fines Monsanto $2B.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog Editor
Yesterday, we featured Part II of our in-depth Q&A with political risk expert Robert McKellar, a follow-up to an August 
US President Donald Trump’s coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted than the barrage he has threatened, aides and allies said. …The White House is narrowing its approach to take effect on April 2, likely omitting a set of industry-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal levies on a targeted set of nations that account for the bulk of foreign trade with the US. …The White House is still planning to unveil the reciprocal -tariff action on that day, though. …The fate of the sectoral tariffs, as well as tariffs on Canada and Mexico that Trump said were justified by fentanyl, remains uncertain. …The administration is now focusing on applying tariffs to about 15% of nations with persistent trade imbalances with the US… such as Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Vietnam.
US builders pay a premium for the spruce, pine and fir (SPF) lumber that BC produces and could soon face additional tariffs after Trump’s proclamation that America doesn’t need the province’s wood. They like it, particularly for framing walls because SPF is lighter, stronger and tighter-grained than the more abundant southern yellow pine lumber that has a reputation for warping. …“There’s just this gap between what the U.S. can supply and what their demand is,” said Kurt Niquidet, president of the B.C. Lumber Trade Council. ..“There’s no way American supply, in the short-term, can do anything but rely on Canadian lumber,” Russ Taylor said. “Tariffs are just going to push the price up and create shortages,” Taylor said. “It’s just going to be market chaos, as it will be with OSB panels as it will be with pulp and newsprint.”
As the cross-border trade war escalates, Canada’s softwood lumber industry has an advantage on its side that no tariff can completely erase – its product is objectively better than much of the timber harvested from US forests. Softwood supplies, especially from BC and Alberta, are widely viewed as more desirable for wood framing because the growth rings are tighter than those found in lumber in the US South. In the milder climate of the U.S. South, the growing season is much faster. It takes about 35 years before southern yellow pine (SYP) trees are harvested. …Canada’s secret weapon, however, is hiding in plain sight. Tighter growth rings tend to result in quality two-by-four or two-by-six SPF boards for home builders, meaning walls that will stay straight. Compared with American SYP lumber, Canadian SPF is also lighter in weight. …Eastern SYP is currently selling at lower prices when compared with SPF. “SYP is an imperfect substitute for SPF,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew McKellar said. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
The two BC regions that include resource-reliant communities like Smithers, Vanderhoof and Terrace stand to lose the most from tariffs, according to new research from the Institute for Research on Public Policy. …While BC stands to be the least affected province, tariffs are likely to cause the greatest disruptions in regions of Bulkley-Nechako and the Kitimat-Stikine. The first region depends heavily on forestry, while the second includes Rio Tinto’s aluminum smelter in Terrace. Counting existing countervailing duties, BC forest products could face tariffs exceeding 50 per cent, if not higher. …Almost three-in-10 workers in Bulkley-Nechako hold jobs in export-oriented industries with about 5.6% of the total work exposed to US tariffs. …Rounding out of the Top 5 are the Peace River and Cariboo (both 5.5%) and Kootenay-Boundary (5.4%). Regions potentially least affected by the tariffs include the Capital Region (1.5%), Squamish-Lillooet (1.4%) and the Central Coast (1.2%). Greater Vancouver’s exposure is 2.8% and the fast-growing Fraser Valley is 4%.
The federal government is providing funding to support BC’s forestry sector. …In what could mark a turning point for the Fort Nelson economy, a long-awaited pellet mill project is poised for significant progress with a $250,000 funding injection. The Fort Nelson First Nation is set to receive the funding, which will bolster its partnership with Peak Renewables. Together, they aim to convert an idle former Canfor sawmill into a large-scale wood pellet plant. …The region, historically reliant on its resource sector, has faced a number of challenges in bringing the project to fruition. In November 2020, the Fort Nelson First Nation extended a $1 million interest-free loan to Peak Renewables to advance the project. Originally, the pellet mill was slated to begin operations in early 2022. Since then, no new timeline has been provided as to when the mill may become operational. 
The federal government is providing about $20 million in funding to support BC’s forestry sector. Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson says it’s more important than ever to support the sector, which is subject to American duties on softwood lumber and now faces the additional threat of steep tariffs. NRCan says the funding will support 67 projects. …About $11.3 million will flow through the Investments in Forest Industry Transformation program for six projects that are adopting new technologies. More than $7 million will go through the Indigenous Forestry Initiative to 50 projects advancing economic development opportunities. Another $1.6 million will go to nine projects promoting the commercialization of wood-based products in the construction sector, while $600,000 will go to projects aimed at strengthening international partnerships and decreasing market barriers. …Ottawa has also announced $5 million in funding for four projects in B.C. and one in Yukon aimed at helping laid-off workers from the forestry and mining sectors.
Ravi Parmar, Minister of Forests, celebrated the official opening of Canoe Forest Products’ new kiln. The new kiln was made possible with funding from the Province’s BC Manufacturing Jobs Fund (BCMJF). …Canoe received more than $2.2 million in November 2023 to commission a new kiln, boosting both production and sustainability at its operation in Salmon Arm and help protect 200 jobs. …Parmar accompanied Canoe employees, community guests, and Nick Arkle, CEO of the Gorman Group, at an opening ribbon-cutting ceremony. …Parmar is also visited Tolko Industries who received $8 million to help expand Tolko’s Heffley Creek operation. Family-run Gilbert Smith Forest Products in Barriere received $1.1 million to support facility modernization and new equipment. AcuTruss Industries in Vernon received $100,000 to support the purchase and commissioning of equipment to manufacture precision cut I-joists through automation.
Following the US government’s imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium, Cepi has called on the European Commission to continue negotiations, citing the potential for future tariffs including pulp and paper and aiming to avoid supply chain disruptions. Cepi is currently taking part in a consultation launched by the European Commission. …The confederation asks the Commission to exclude from such EU retaliation list products that risk being in short supply in the EU. …According to Cepi, the EU imports around 900,000 tonnes of pulp per year from the US and close to 600,000 tonnes of paper and board, while the EU exports about 1600,000 tonnes of paper and board to the US and around 350,000 tonnes of pulp. It states that since a multilateral agreement of all major pulp and paper producers in January 2004, there have been no import tariffs on both sides of the Atlantic.
WASHINGTON — A gobsmacked planet is wondering what’s next from President Donald Trump on the tariff spree he’s set in zigzag motion. In recent weeks, Trump has announced punishing tariffs against allies and adversaries alike, selectively paused and imposed them, doubled and then halved some, and warned late in the week that he’ll tax European wine and spirits a stratospheric 200% if the European Union doesn’t drop a 50% tariff on U.S. whiskey. His ultimate stated goal is clear: to revive American manufacturing and win compromises along the way. But people and nations whose fortunes rise and fall on trade are trying to divine a method to his machinations. So far, he’s spurred fears about slower growth and higher inflation that are dragging down the stock market and consumer confidence. “His tariff policy is erratic,” Robert Halver, at Germany’s Baader Bank, said. “So, there is no planning certainty at all.”
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — The proposed classification of two timber species commonly found in Malaysia as unsustainable by the United States and the European Union (EU) under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) will result in the cancellation of Malaysian timber exports to the US and the EU. The Timber Exporters’ Association of Malaysia (TEAM) treasurer Wong Kar Wai said that in addition to impending tariffs, the US and the EU are proposing to classify certain timber species common to Southeast Asia, including Malaysia – namely Shorea, locally known as Meranti, and Apitong, known as Keruing – under CITES despite being sustainably harvested and processed. “Keruing is a special type of timber primarily used for floorboards, with the US being its main market. A major buyer is the US military, which uses Keruing for the flooring of trucks and tanks due to its durability and strength.
CNN’s Vanessa Yurkevich explains how much US home prices could increase due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. [Video report only, 2 .5 minutes]
If there is a prolonged trade war between the US and Canada, expect insurance rates… to rise in price. The industry notes there’s a lot of uncertainty about tariffs right now. But one outcome the industry can likely count on is increases to home and auto rates, says Steven Harris. …Although home insurance premiums haven’t increased as high as auto rates — in 2024 Q4, for example, personal property premium rates increased 7.3% from the previous year — consumers are likely to see any impacts from the tariffs appear on their home insurance policy renewal much sooner, says Harris. “And if building materials like software lumber are tariffed, and thereby more expensive to import, they’ll cost more to insure. …“Tariffs on building materials directly inflate rebuilding expenses, necessitating higher replacement cost coverage for homeowners.”
US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat could motivate more Canadian lumber producers to shift to the US southern border while accelerating efforts to find new markets, industry experts said. The levies are the latest in a nearly four-decade dispute between the neighbors over softwood lumber, used in construction, furniture and paper production. Levies on Canadian lumber could hit 40% if current duties of 14.54%, and Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs are added. …”Disparity in log costs and availability are the major drivers here, but Canadian investment in the region has certainly been partially motivated to moving operations where they avoid the impact of duties,” said Dustin Jalbert at FastMarkets. …”In 2004, there were only two sawmills owned by a Canadian manufacturer. Today, we have more than 50,” said Kyle Little, at Sherwood Lumber.” Canadian companies now produce more than a third of the volume of the largest producing region in the US – the US South.”
A surprise jump in inflation and a flood of “noise” in the economy may push the Bank of Canada to pause its interest rate cuts next month, some economists argue. Statistics Canada said that the annual rate of inflation accelerated sharply to 2.6% in February as the federal government’s temporary tax break came to an end mid-month. That marks a sizeable jump from the 1.9% increase seen in January, when Canadians saw GST and HST taken off a variety of household staples. …Economists expect Ottawa’s move to strike the consumer carbon price as of April 1 will take some steam out of the inflation figures next month. But Nguyen argued the pressure from the trade dispute — Trump has threatened another wave of tariffs on April 2 — will “outweigh” the benefits of eliminating the carbon price for consumers.
The Trump administration’s tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and China — some already in place, others set to take effect in a few weeks — are already driving up the cost of building materials used in new residential construction and home remodeling projects. The tariffs are projected to raise the costs that go into building a single-family home in the U.S. by US$7,500 to US$10,000, according to the NAHB. We Buy Houses in San Francisco, which purchases foreclosed homes and then typically renovates and sells them, is increasing prices on its refurbished properties between 7% and 12%. That’s even after stockpiling 62% more Canadian lumber than usual. …The timing of the tariffs couldn’t be worse as this is typically the busiest time of year for home sales. …Confusion over the timing and scope of the tariffs, and their impact on the economy, could have a bigger chilling effect on the new-home market than higher prices.
Trump’s escalating trade tariffs will hit world growth and raise inflation, the OECD has predicted. Canada and Mexico are forecast to see the biggest impact as they have had the harshest tariffs imposed on them, but US growth is also expected to be hit. …Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports. The US has also imposed 25% tariffs on other imports from Mexico and Canada – with some exemptions – and a 20% levy on Chinese goods. Canada and the EU have announced retaliatory tariffs. …Canada’s economy is predicted to grow by just 0.7% this year and in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 2% for both years. Mexico is now forecast to contract by 1.3% this year and shrink a further 0.6% next year, instead of growing by 1.2% and 1.6%. Growth in the US has also been downgraded, with growth of 2.2% this year and 1.6% in 2025, down from previous forecasts of 2.4% and 2.1% China’s growth forecast will fall slightly to 4.8%.
There is a 20% tariff on products from China and 25% on many goods from Canada and Mexico. What is sure is that they will increase the cost of DIY projects and home renovations, says Pelin Pekgun, at Wake Forest University School of Business. …“While prices will not rise immediately, higher material costs, potential shortages and supply delays could result in tighter renovation budgets in the coming months.” …One of the most significant products the tariffs will impact is lumber. More than 25% of cement and concrete are imported from Canada and Mexico, so the cost of pouring foundations and flatwork, such as driveways and walkways, will likely increase. …Many other building materials will likely get more expensive, including flooring, cabinets, countertops and lighting. Though not a direct consequence of tariffs, labor costs are also a growing concern in the construction industry, says roofer Michael Green.
Trump administration officials are roiled in debate over how to implement the president’s pledge to equalize U.S. tariffs with those charged by other nations, with aides scrambling to meet the president’s self-imposed deadline of April 2 to debut a plan. Officials have recently weighed whether to simplify the complex task of devising new tariff rates for hundreds of U.S. trading partners by instead sorting nations into one of three tariff tiers, according to people close to the policy discussions, who emphasized that the situation remains fluid and could evolve in the coming weeks. The proposal was later ruled out, said an administration official close to the talks, adding that Trump’s team is still trying to sort how to implement an individualized rate for each nation. …The reciprocal tariff plan is expected to be introduced on April 2, along with additional 25% duties on a handful of industries, such as autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
The US housing market showed mixed signals in February, with a sharp rise in housing starts contrasting with a decline in building permits. According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, new residential construction activity picked up, but future construction intentions weakened, raising questions about the sector’s near-term strength. Privately-owned housing starts surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million in February, marking an 11.2% increase from January’s revised figure of 1.350 million. The single-family sector led the gains, with starts rising 11.4% to 1.108 million units. However, despite this strong monthly performance, overall starts remained 2.9% below February 2024 levels, signaling ongoing challenges in year-over-year growth. …This decline extended the downward trend, with permits now 6.8% below year-ago levels. Single-family authorizations remained relatively stable at 992,000, down just 0.2% from January. 
BEIJING — UBS analysts became the latest to raise expectations that China’s struggling real estate market is close to stabilizing. “After four or five years of a downward cycle, we have begun to see some relatively positive signals,” John Lam at UBS Investment Bank. …“Of course these signals aren’t nationwide, and may be local,” Lam said. One indicator is improving sales in China’s largest cities. Existing home sales in five major Chinese cities have climbed by more than 30% from a year ago on a weekly basis as of Wednesday. The category is typically called “secondary home sales” in China, in contrast to the primary market, which has typically consisted of newly built apartment homes. UBS now predicts China’s home prices can stabilize in early 2026, earlier than the mid-2026 timeframe previously forecast. They expect secondary transactions could reach half of the total by 2026.
EAST HANTS, Nova Scotia — The Honourable Kody Blois, Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food, announced federal funding for MTC Mass Timber Company (MTC) to support its move to technology-driven manufacturing that will create high-value mass timber products in Nova Scotia. Through an investment of $500,000, MTC will advance the detailed design of Canada’s first large-scale, clear-span mass timber manufacturing structure that would house a new industrial plant. Once constructed, MTC will be Canada’s first vertically integrated mass timber manufacturer in Atlantic Canada, allowing further growth of the region’s offsite building construction sector and improving access to housing for Nova Scotians. MTC was also conditionally approved for $10 million in federal support, subject to the required due diligence measures, and the negotiation of a final agreement.
Last week, consumers in four states filed a proposed class action against Amazon, accusing the company of greenwashing by misleading consumers about the sustainability of the company’s Amazon Basics line of paper products. Here are some of the key allegations: Amazon uses a Sustainability Leaf and a Climate Pledge Friendly logo to suggest that Amazon’s supply chain for Amazon Basics paper products uses sustainable forestry practices. …However, because Amazon sources its Amazon Basics paper products from suppliers who clearcut and burn centuries-old forests, Amazon is exaggerating any environmental benefits. …The Forest Stewardship Council (or “FSC”) requires companies to use different FSC logos to depict different levels of commitment to responsible forest management. Despite this, Amazon uses an unqualified Forest Stewardship Council logo. …This Complaint challenges an arguably very sustainably-minded company. We learned this week that Amazon announced the launch of a new carbon credit investment service.
OTTAWA — The Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson announced a $16.3 million investment over the next three years, starting in 2024–25, to support 25 projects through the Government of Canada’s Fighting and Managing Wildfires in a Changing Climate Program (FMWCC) – Training Fund. Through this investment, over 2,800 youth and community members in remote, rural and Indigenous communities across Canada will receive wildland firefighting training to enhance community capacity for responding to and managing wildfires. …Some of the projects funded through the FMWCC Training Fund include: $329,109 to the Keewaytinook Okimakanak’s project in Thunder Bay, Ontario… $499,330 to the Metis Settlements General Council’s project in Edmonton, Alberta… $946,330 to Prince Albert Development Corporation Management Co. Ltd.’s project in Prince Albert, Saskatchewan… and $1,999,999 to the Independent First Nations Alliance’s (IFNA) project in Sioux Lookout, Ontario.
A Canfor operation in Prince George and three area First Nations have received federal funding to boost innovation in forestry. The $293,500 in local funding is part of more than $20 million the Canadian government is investing in 67 projects province-wide. The funds are part of a broader effort to enhance the competitiveness and resiliency of Canada’s forest industry, which has faced increasing trade barriers, particularly from the US. Among the recipients is Canadian Forest Products, or Canfor, which will receive up to $121,500 for a project aimed at producing innovative, formaldehyde-free and isocyanate-free wood adhesives. The company will explore extracting kraft lignin from black liquor at its Northwood mill in Prince George, converting it into a new, sustainable bioproduct. The project aims to determine the commercial viability of this process, which could open up new revenue streams and reduce reliance on harmful chemicals.
WASHINGTON STATE is one of the most productive parts of the country for growing timber. Most of the timber is west of the Cascades and its annual production in the United States is only second to Oregon. However, harvesting faces significant constraints according to the Department of Natural Resources (DNR). DNR manages about two million acres of timberlands, but only half can be harvested due to challenging terrain or environmental protections, such as endangered species habitats. …Federal lands in Washington state currently produce minimal timber, and changing protected land status would require congressional action, not just presidential directives. Upthegrove, a Democrat, anticipates any attempts to increase federal timber harvesting would face lengthy legal challenges. In Washington state, over 70% of the timber harvested comes from privately owned forestland. …For these reasons, state officials believe Washington cannot realistically offset the costs associated with Canadian lumber tariffs.
The US president recently suggested that domestic lumber production could be significantly increased by opening federal lands to logging. This move, he argued, would reduce US dependence on lumber imports from Canada and Europe. …At first glance, tapping into federal timber resources might seem like a logical solution. However, the reality is far more complicated. A combination of declining forestry expertise, legal challenges, labor shortages, infrastructure limitations, and lack of private investment incentives makes this an unrealistic path to reduce lumber imports to the US. …While the US president suggests that opening federal lands for logging could boost domestic lumber production, this is an unrealistic expectation. …Despite claims that the US no longer needs Canadian lumber, the reality is that imports from Canada and Europe will continue to play a crucial role in meeting US domestic wood demand in the future.
President Donald Trump’s March 1 executive order calling for “immediate expansion of American timber production” generated lots of enthusiasm in the Northwest wood products world. But analysts added equal amounts of concern that Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency-driven federal cuts might keep the woods quiet. “It’s going to be a good thing in terms of helping stimulate activity on national forests,” the University of Montana’s Todd Morgan said… but also recognizes the uncertainty spiraling around Washington, D.C. “A lot is going to depend on who’s left in federal agencies at the end of the day, the week, the next four years,” he said. “All this funding- and budget-cutting is going to interfere with the stated goals.” …Trump’s order also calls for timber production targets. That’s something that has been missing from federal land management for a long time, according to Montana Wood Products Association Director Julia Altemus.
NEW YORK — A jury in Georgia has ordered Monsanto parent Bayer to pay nearly $2.1 billion in damages to a man who says the company’s Roundup weed killer caused his cancer. The verdict marks the latest in a long-running series of court battles Monsanto has faced over its Roundup herbicide. The agrochemical giant says it will appeal the verdict. The penalties awarded include $65 million in compensatory damages and $2 billion in punitive damages. That marks one of the largest legal settlements reached in a Roundup-related case to date. …Germany-based Bayer, which acquired Monsanto in 2018, has continued to dispute claims that Roundup causes cancer. But the company has been hit with more than 177,000 lawsuits involving the weedkiller and set aside $16 billion to settle cases. Monsanto said Friday’s verdict “conflicts with the overwhelming weight of scientific evidence and the consensus of regulatory bodies and their scientific assessments worldwide.” 
Virginia loggers hope steps taken by President Donald Trump will breathe new life into parts of the Commonwealth they feel have long been abandoned. …Canada is the largest exporter of lumber into the US. The lumber industry in the United State has a long history and has been financially rocky in recent decades. Unregulated cutting up to the 1980s damaged land and water systems. Regulations followed. Then international trade agreements saw production shipped overseas, further denting an industry that literally built America. But loggers in Virginia have stuck with it. Among them is Vance Wright. …Trump’s shortest-term impact on logging may be with tariffs. But logging and timber have long been subject to different international trade deals. And while those international markets arguably killed Virginia’s manufacturing, think Martinsville’s now-shuttered furniture factories, it also opened doors to new opportunities.
Oregon firefighters arrived Sunday in North Carolina to assist in fighting wildfires that have burned thousands of acres in the western part of the state. The Oregon Department of Forestry sent 26 firefighters and two agency representatives for a two-week rotation in North Carolina. Many of the Oregon firefighters were assigned to the Black Cove Fire. The fire was first reported March 19. The Black Cove Fire in North Carolina’s Polk County has forced evacuations and is one of the largest in the western part of the state. Along with the Deep Woods Fire, burning in the Green River Gorge, a combined 4,621 acres were burning with 0% containment as of Sunday evening, according to the North Carolina Forest Service. …The firefighters were sent under a mutual assistance agreement between Oregon and North Carolina.
Wildfires forced a mandatory evacuation Sunday in a North Carolina county still recovering from Hurricane Helene, and South Carolina’s governor declared an emergency in response to a growing wildfire in that state. Hundreds of miles north, the New Jersey Forest Fire Service was battling a blaze in the Wharton State Forest. The North Carolina Department of Public Safety announced a mandatory evacuation starting at 8:20 p.m. Saturday for parts of Polk County in western North Carolina about 80 miles west of Charlotte. A shelter had been established in Columbus, North Carolina. …Also this weekend, the New Jersey Forest Fire Service has been battling a wildfire that broke out in the Wharton State Forest on Saturday. The fire had consumed about 2.7 square miles as of early Sunday morning and was about 50% contained, according to an 8 a.m. update.
Among the wave of humanity that came to Canada in the 19th century were hundreds of thousands of Irish, some of whom ended up in Bradford. …Between 1815 and 1840, about 450,000 Irish migrated to the British North American colonies. Cheap labour was needed in lumber camps and for construction of the Welland Canal and the Rideau Canal. Canada represented a new hope. Irish migration was encouraged by leaflets circulated by Canadian lumber merchants and the British government. For their part, lumber merchants realized money could be made in loading their vessels with would-be settlers on the return trip from Britain. …Irish migration to Canada increased when Ireland was struck by the Potato Famine due to widespread starvation. During this period, more than one million Irish died from starvation and resultant diseases. Even more fled overseas, many to Canada. …In 1847 alone, at least 110,000 Irish left Irish and British ports for Canada. The tragedy is many didn’t make it. …On this St. Patrick’s Day, raise a toast to them.