Kevin Mason
Although both US housing starts and sales data are showing some resilience in the face of an extremely difficult and volatile macroeconomic backdrop, several alarm bells are beginning to ring for the U.S. housing market. Mortgage rates, which have moved steadily higher over the past six months, are certainly cause for concern. …At the beginning of the year most pundits, including ourselves, expected some modest near-term rate relief; we are seeing the exact opposite unfold. With the conflict in the Middle East still far from resolved, we anticipate that elevated oil/energy prices will result in continued inflationary pressures through year-end (at least) and elevated mortgage rates will continue to drag on both new home construction and home sales activity (the latter which negatively impacts wood products demand from repair and remodel).
According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, it’s a coin toss whether or not the Fed hikes by 25bps when it meets in mid-September, and the CME indicates an almost 38% probability that the funds rates will be 50bps higher by year end. And unsurprisingly, homebuilder confidence continues to worsen, and the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI slipped by another 2 points to 34 in July. The NAHB’s Multifamily Production Index (MPI) which measures builder sentiment in the apartment and condo market, was off by 3 points.
The prospective trade deal being negotiated in Washington this week would lower US President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian autos from 25% to 15% and preserve an existing exemption for the value of American content. …As Canada rushed to finalize the pact, Prime Minister Carney’s concessions drew criticism. …Six sources familiar with the negotiations said both auto and forestry tariffs, imposed by Mr. Trump last year using Section 232, had been major sticking points. …With forestry, Canada had asked for relief from the Section 232 sectoral portion of tariffs on lumber and wood products, while the US wanted the sector excluded entirely from the deal. …Given forestry’s importance to his province and his outspokenness, along with Mr. Kinew and Mr. Ford, about the importance of the alcohol ban, Mr. Eby’s cooperation will be crucial if Mr. Carney hopes to fulfill that U.S. demand. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
Prime Minister Carney has asked premiers to restock American alcohol and end procurement policies that exclude US companies, as Canadian and U.S. negotiators continue to haggle over the level of tariffs that will remain in place on key industries. U.S. President Trump announced on Tuesday that he had reached a tentative trade deal with Ottawa and postponed the implementation of punishing new tariffs on Canadian goods for three days. …But on Wednesday, negotiators were still bargaining over the level of tariff relief key Canadian industries would receive as part of a trade deal, according to premiers Scott Moe of Saskatchewan and Tim Houston of Nova Scotia, who were briefed on the talks by Mr. Carney Wednesday afternoon. …Getting the U.S. to lower these tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and forest products has been the central Canadian trade goal over the past year. [to access the full story a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
A Richmond plywood manufacturer is concerned about what Wednesday is going to bring for his business. Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as officials race against the clock to secure a new trade deal before new 50% tariffs take effect Wednesday. …“A 50 per cent tariff is not a margin we can absorb, nor is it something US customers will be willing to pay,” Bhavjit Thandi, CFO of Richmond Plywood, said. …So far, the BC premier is reluctant to make any concessions such as returning US alcohol to BC shelves without tariff relief for key industries such as forestry. But the Americans have not been interested in discussing softwood lumber. “The softwood lumber sector is bigger than auto parts and steel combined in terms of the Canadian economy and it needs to be front and centre at the table,” Eby said on Friday.
Canada-U.S. trade talks are down to the wire this week as Ottawa tries to avert punitive new tariffs scheduled to be imposed by the Trump administration on Wednesday. …Five sources briefed on the discussions said Section 232 tariffs on autos and lumber remained the biggest points of contention. …On forestry, the US does not want to offer any reduction of Section 232 tariffs on the sector. Instead, the US has argued that Canada should wait for the results of a separate review by the US Department of Commerce that is expected to reduce a different set of tariffs on softwood lumber. …A different source said the best Canada could hope for is an agreement from the U.S. to discuss forestry tariffs further. BC’s forestry industry has been hit hard by the Trump policies because the Section 232 tariffs on lumber stack on top of pre-existing countervailing and anti-dumping tariffs. The B.C. Lumber Trade Council’s interim president, Kim Haakstad, said Sunday she is concerned that if the 232 tariffs stay in place, more mills could close. [to access the full story a Glove & Mail subscription is required]
Prince George city council voted in favour of sending a letter to provincial Labour Minister Jennifer Whiteside at its Monday, Aug. 17 meeting to reinstate a program helping workers near retirement in the wake of the impending closure of the Northwood Pulp Mill. At the Monday, Aug. 10 meeting of the city’s Standing Committee, members discussed the imminent closure of the mill. During that committee meeting, the city’s manager of economic development, Deklan Corstanje, said that the last time a mill closed, workers were able to access a provincial program called Bridging to Retirement. Before the program stopped accepting applications on Feb. 26, 2025, it provided forestry worked aged 55 and older with funding to help facilitate an early retirement. …The committee ultimately passed a motion recommending that council approve Mayor Simon Yu sending a letter to Whiteside asking for the program’s restoration.
The US International Trade Commission (USITC) announced its injury determinations in its antidumping and countervailing duty investigations concerning hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam that the US Department of Commerce determined are subsidized and sold in the US at less than fair value and subsidized by the governments of China, Indonesia, and Vietnam. …Chairman Brett W. Doyle and Commissioners Jason S. Kearns and Peter-Anthony Pappas voted in the affirmative regarding hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam. They also found that the imports of softwood structural plywood downfall and stamped and certified softwood structural plywood that Commerce determined are sold at less than fair value and subsidized… are negligible, and voted to terminate the antidumping and countervailing duty investigations for these products from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam. The report will be available on the USITC website by September 28, 2026.
COSMOPOLIS, Washington — The US Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], in coordination with the Washington State Department of Ecology, began a time-critical chemical removal action at the dormant Cosmo Specialty Fibers pulp mill in Cosmopolis, the EPA announced. The announcement states that for the past two years, the EPA and Department of Ecology have worked closely to assess conditions at the non-operational facility and identify actions needed to reduce potential risks to the community and the environment. More than 750,000 gallons of waste chemicals remain at the site, and the facility has accumulated more than $2 million in environmental fines. …Weyerhaeuser operated the mill until 2006, when production shut down. …In 2011 the mill resumed operation as Cosmo Specialty Fibers. The pulp mill had been in intermittent operation since 2011 and shut down in December 2022. UK-based Charlestown Investments and Richard Bassett acquired Cosmo Specialty Fibers in early 2023 with the intent of restarting the mill.
From the Arkansas line, in all directions down through much of Louisiana, dipping even into Cajun country, you see trees. Everywhere. The depth and breadth of our pine and hardwood stands and forests are almost indiscernible. …For as long as most can remember, this industry was the heartbeat of rural Louisiana and stood as the backbone of our economy in Louisiana, producing lumber, paper, and dozens of other wood products that generated living wages and pockets of prosperity through nearly every parish. …Total industry output still registers in the billions, yet the practical reality on the ground is stagnation. Major paper mills that once absorbed millions of tons of fiber have closed. …Meanwhile, pulpwood prices sit near multi-decade lows. Our loggers wrestle with rising insurance and operating costs propelled by our judicial and litigious climate while landowners see returns on investment shrink. The giant that was our timber industry is still standing, but it is staggering.
A six-week production shutdown at Metsä Fibre’s large bioproduct mill in Kemi will temporarily reduce demand for pulpwood in northern Finland. At the same time, Stora Enso is considering closing the Veitsiluoto sawmill permanently. The announcements increase uncertainty for forest owners, logging contractors and transport companies, although they do not mean that the regional wood trade will come to a standstill. Metsä Fibre will suspend production at its Kemi bioproduct mill for six weeks during October and November 2026. The shutdown will allow the company to modernise the mill’s cooking system and will be coordinated with its regular annual maintenance outage. The unusually long stoppage is expected to reduce the mill’s immediate consumption of pulpwood. …The immediate consequences are likely to include softer demand and more complicated logistics during the autumn. This does not amount to a collapse of northern Finland’s wood market. 
MAINE — Softwood lumber from Canada is already tarriffed at 45% — this round of tariff won’t impact softwood – but it will impact a range of other building supplies – cement, steel, aluminum, copper products – and a range of lumber products like plywood, fiberboard, and oriented strand board. “Right now the cheapest prices is out of Canada and a lot of this product comes out of Canada.” All of these are products that are known for their resilience – used in everything from custom cabinets to exterior siding. Hillside Lumber co-owner Mike Knight says the tariff increase could wind up causing increased demand for American lumber. “They can’t keep up with the demand if we cut off Canada altogether.” That in turn, could lead to higher prices for domestic products too. “Not that I’m against having everything here in the US but I think if the timing is off.” …The increase trickles down, ultimately hitting the home buyers.
Canadian northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp has gone through a difficult cycle over the past three years. Following exceptionally strong prices after the pandemic, the market weakened as Chinese demand slowed, producer inventories grew and new hardwood pulp capacity came online in South America. …China remains the single most important external influence on Canadian pulp prices. As the world’s largest importer of market pulp, changes in Chinese inventories, paper production and economic growth quickly move global prices. Strong Chinese buying typically supports Canadian producers, while periods of inventory reduction or weak manufacturing place immediate downward pressure on pulp markets. …Recovered (recycled) fibre has become an increasingly important part of the industry. …The industry’s greatest challenge is increasingly on the supply side. …Over the next two to three years, the outlook for NBSK is cautiously positive. Unlike hardwood pulp, very little new softwood capacity is being built globally. [to access the full story, a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
VANCOUVER, BC — Conifex Timber reported results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. EBITDA was negative $6.3 million for the quarter compared to EBITDA of negative $7.7 million in the first quarter of 2026 and negative EBITDA of $3.2 million in the second quarter of 2025. Net loss was $9.5 million or the quarter versus a net loss of $9.4 million in the previous quarter and a net loss of $8.3 million in the second quarter of 2025. …Revenues from lumber products were $19.0 million in the second quarter of 2026, representing an increase of 27% from the previous quarter and a decrease of 31% from the second quarter of 2025. … Electricity production contributed revenues of $2.8 million in the second quarter of 2026, $5.2 million in the previous quarter, and $3.6 million in the second quarter of 2025.
VANCOUVER, BC — Western Forest Products reported their second quarter, 2026 result. Q2, 2026 revenue was $239.6 million, compared to $201.5 million in Q1, 2026, and $289.1 million in the second quarter of 2025. …Adjusted EBITDA of $0.4 million in the second quarter of 2026, as compared to $0.5 million in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026 included a $2.3 million expense related to share-based compensation due to a 20% increase in the Company’s share price, compared to a $0.3 million expense in the same period last year. Net income was $10.5 million in the second quarter of 2026, as compared to a net loss of $17.4 million for the same period last year. Results in the second quarter of 2026 included a $31.3 million property insurance recovery from our Columbia Vista sawmill. …Both the North American Japanese lumber markets are expected to be relatively stable through most of the third quarter of 2026.
Americans who act as their own builder put wood framing into 96 per cent of the houses they finished in 2025, up from 93 per cent a year earlier, in a segment where concrete held 2 per cent. That is according to the United States Census Bureau, whose 
While North American softwood lumber consumption has declined in 2026, prices have remained surprisingly resilient due to constrained supply, reduced production, and persistent structural demand for housing despite ongoing affordability challenges. …On one hand, builders continue to face affordability concerns, elevated mortgage rates, and cautious consumers. On the other hand, lumber prices have generally strengthened throughout 2026, despite year-over-year declines in consumption. Here’s what the latest market indicators are telling us. …The U.S. housing market continues to balance between long-term demand for new homes and short-term economic pressures. …These trends suggest that, while housing demand hasn’t disappeared, the market is adapting to economic realities rather than expanding uniformly. …Although North American lumber consumption has declined year over year, production has also contracted. Reduced output across both the United States and Canada has helped keep supply relatively tight, supporting pricing across many lumber grades.
With interest from Big Tech and a new bill before Congress that would expand its use in federal projects, mass timber is on the cusp of a new era of growth. Relatively stable lumber prices that buck the broader trend of increasingly expensive construction inputs are meeting with greater levels of comfort around the material’s use to drive faster adoption after years of cautious incorporation. “There’s a more robust supply chain and we’re getting more experienced,” said Dean Lewis, director of mass timber and prefabrication for Skanska USA. “When you say, ‘I want to use mass timber,’ people aren’t like, ‘What is that?’ They want to know what you want to do with it. The conversation has changed.” Construction using mass timber is expected to grow to a $5.7B market by 2030, with annual growth rates topping 20% to 30%, according to Grand View Research data. [to access the full story a BISNOW subscription is required]
Washington has been developing new wildfire safety regulations for several years, including building codes for homes constructed in risky areas and rules for managing plants and vegetation. But restrictions that affect people’s homes and gardens can be unpopular. After public pushback, state legislators backtracked and repealed some of the requirements. Other Western states have also struggled to pass wildfire regulations affecting homeowners’ properties. …Understanding wildfire risk can be challenging in many Western states. For floods, the federal government releases national maps showing which places are at risk of inundation. Wildfire mapping is left to the states, which involves using complex computer models to determine the chances of a fire based on vegetation, terrain and fire behavior. …Washington state officials say the new wildfire maps will be released in December. …Oregon faced similar pushback while developing its wildfire regulations. …Building codes for housing in wildfire-prone areas were pioneered by California.
AUSTRALIA — Forest & Wood Products Australia released a draft standard for cross laminated timber design to provide a dedicated framework for the structural design of CLT elements. The Standard has undergone independent technical review and provides comprehensive design methods for structural CLT components, subject to the requirements and limitations described in the Scope. Developed through collaboration with industry, researchers and technical experts, the Standard is intended to give architects, engineers and builders a national method for designing cross-laminated timber floors, walls and stairs, under a 46-page document out for comment. …Industry Benefits include consistency across engineering, manufacturing and certification practices; growing use of CLT and mass timber construction in Australia; and an independently reviewed basis for CLT structural design. …The public comment period for this Standard is open for a six-week period to 29 September.
TAIWAN — The Taiwan Forestry Research Institute said it is promoting full utilization of Taiwan’s incense cedar to develop a high-value circular economy for forest resources. Incense cedar is an endemic species of Taiwan and is one of Taiwan’s five major coniferous tree species, the institute said. …While Taiwan incense cedar wood is popular with consumers thanks to its distinctive aroma, surplus materials generated during the process of forest tending, pruning and wood processing are usually used as fuel or disposed of, it said. The institute’s Chiayi Research Center promoted research on the reutilization of Taiwan incense cedar surplus materials at the Yunshui Experiment Station from last year to this year, the institute said. Water distillation was applied to extract Taiwan incense cedar oil from surplus materials, while the remaining materials would be ground into scented powder or made into incense cones, it said.
The EU has introduced new rules targeting packaging waste and “forever chemicals.” Although the changes will be phased in slowly, some small sellers have already paused shipments due to the additional red tape. In a drive to cut waste and improve public health, new 
SFU researchers say the amount of money BC has spent fighting wildfires in recent years is almost the same as what the province has collected in natural gas royalties. They say it demonstrates how BC households are already paying for the costs of climate change. The researchers said the average cost of fighting wildfires in BC over the past 10 years was more than twice as much as the decade prior. …“Royalties from the gas sector are virtually the same as what it costs to manage and mitigate wildfires in BC,” said co-author Andy Hira, a professor of political science. …BC’s natural gas industry only represents “a fraction of global emissions,” Lisa Baiton, CEO of Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said. Dan McTeague, a former Liberal MP said the energy sector’s much-bigger economic footprint gets lost when the debate narrows to royalties alone.
Canada has released the first ever biological control agent to tackle invasive common tansy (Tanacetum vulgare), an invasive plant that negatively impacts the country and wider region’s livestock, rangeland, and native biodiversity. The release of the agent – a stem-mining weevil called Microplontus millefolii – marks a major milestone in efforts to manage this invasive plant across North America, reducing its ecological and economic impacts. In partnership with the British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) conducted the first releases of 1,200 adult weevils in May. AAFC conducted a further release of 400 weevils in Alberta in June. …These releases target areas experiencing significant, negative impacts on agriculture and biodiversity. …The common tansy has diminished the health of lands used for livestock foraging, as well as displaced native vegetation, and has hindered forest regeneration following logging. …Over 10,000ha of common tansy has been recorded in BC across all climate zones said BC’s Janine Brooke.
BC’s government is contemplating carving the province into three zones to “provide greater clarity” to the timber industry, and discussions have so far left out First Nations. The zoning plan is outlined in an email sent in early July to public servants in the Ministry of Forests and the Ministry of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship. “The concept will consider three zones: commercial forestry, multiple-use and conservation and protection,” the leaked email reads, adding the zones will “provide greater clarity to achieve both investment stability and community economic benefits, and biodiversity and ecosystem stewardship goals for the land base.” The email provides no detail on how much forest might ultimately be placed in each of the zones, leaving open questions about just what impact the proposed plan would have on everything from at-risk species to rural and First Nations communities, and a logging industry that has been on a sharp downward spiral for years.
New documents show that more than 300,000 acres of land could be transferred to Vancouver Island First Nations, which are currently finalizing treaties. Approximately 30 parcels of Crown land would be given to five First Nations, which are located from Parksville to Victoria. The list includes Hatley Castle, Royal Roads University, waterfront in Victoria, property next to the legislature, Discovery Island Provincial Park and Sooke Mountain Provincial Park. “This is a betrayal of our core democracy here in British Columbia,” Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay said. …Lawyer Geoffrey Moyse spent decades advising the province on Aboriginal law. “There was no requirement to renegotiate the Douglas Treaties, so I think this was a political decision,” he said. Some concerns state that transferred lands would essentially become private property with no legal requirement to preserve public access or adhere to existing zoning.
NORTH GRENVILLE, Ontario — The government is investing $865,000 in the Ontario Woodlot Association (OWA) to enhance private forest management and establish new supply chains for mill by-products and underused wood known as forest biomass. This investment will… test a business model that could double sustainable private harvesting over the next 10 to 15 years. …Ontario is investing $790,000 through the Forest Biomass Program to help the OWA create three new jobs and acquire equipment for the Wood Stewardship Program (WSP). This initiative will increase forest sector productivity by connecting businesses to biomass in privately owned forests. …The project will use up to 100,000 cubic metres of forest biomass over five years, creating new markets to maximize the value of wood and increase the industry’s diversification into value‑added manufacturing. Ontario is also investing $75,000 to support OWA workshops, conferences, publications and collaboration to promote sustainable forest management on private lands.
CALIFORNIA — More than 4 million acres of California forest land may lose protected status under a proposed rollback of the Roadless Rule by the U.S. Forest Service. The federal government says the rollback is necessary to allow responsible timber production and wildfire mitigation efforts. Opponents argue rescinding the rule, which prohibits road construction and logging on 45 million acres of national forest land, would increase development, harm wildlife habitat, threaten water supplies and worsen wildfire risk. A public comment period on the proposal to rescind the 2001 Roadless Rule is open through midnight Sept. 21, 2026. More than 95% of roadless areas are in 10 Western states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming, per the USDA. In California, the proposal would open up 4,416,000 acres of roadless land across the state, which has nearly 21 million acres of national forest, the most of any state except Alaska.
California has adopted the toughest rules in the country to help protect communities from burning. Homeowners in wildfire-prone areas will be required to limit plants within five feet of their house, a protective measure that wildfire experts say can help prevent homes from igniting. …Wednesday’s vote by the California Board of Forestry and Fire Protection comes after years of debate and delays. The state originally considered rules that would have restricted all vegetation within five feet of a house, aside from well-maintained trees. That generated pushback from some communities. …California regulators ultimately struck a compromise. Lawns, flowers and non-woody plants up to 18 inches tall will be allowed, unless they are located directly under the roofline of a house. Trees will be allowed, though branches must be trimmed five feet away from a structure. The rules will apply to new construction right away, but will be phased in for existing structures.
The northern spotted owl is in trouble—per usual. This vanishingly rare subspecies of spotted owl earned its iconic status in the late ’80s and early ’90s, during the height of the Timber Wars in the Pacific Northwest. For forest defenders, the spotted owl is a sacred totem. For loggers, it’s been a pest. In 1990, federal officials reclassified the raptor as a threatened species, and greens won the Timber Wars with the establishment of the Clinton-era Northwest Forest Plan. The spotted owl left the trees standing—yet the number of spotted owls continued to decline. The culprit? The barred owl. …Today, just 15,000 spotted owls remain across North America; in comparison, there are some 3.5 million barred owls. So officials with the US Fish and Wildlife Service have come up with a bold plan to help the spotted owls: Shoot the barred owls.
Today, many Washingtonians may be unaware that a looming federal policy change could have major consequences for the availability, quality and cost of the freshwater they rely on daily. …In August 2025, the U.S. Department of Agriculture officially launched a process to rescind the Roadless Area Conservation Rule. Implemented in 2001, the Rule designated special areas across nearly 60 million acres of forests within the National Forest System. …The Rule reflects scientific evidence that extensive logging and road building contributed to widespread loss and fragmentation of habitat for wildlife and salmon, and degraded water quality for downstream communities. Just how important are roadless areas in national forests? To answer this question, we conducted the science and 
FRANCE — The megafire in Gironde, southwest France, has been “contained” since July 30, but foresters are still prohibited from entering the heart of their plots that were ravaged by the flames. It is too dangerous: With lingering smoke and a still-hot ground, the passage of a vehicle could rekindle the embers. As with the nearby fire in Landiras in 2022, they will probably have to wait for the fall rains before the fire can be officially declared extinguished. A race against time will then begin to fell all the burned trees as quickly as possible before the appearance of the destructive bark beetle and in the hope of selling the timber for the best possible price, depending on the extent of the burn. …The most damaged parts could be turned into heating pellets, while the preserved sections could be used for pallets, the paper industry or as timber. [to access the full story a Le Monde subscription is required]
The European Union Deforestation Regulation has been postponed, amended and simplified since it came about in 2023, yet the central compliance challenge confronting wood pellet producers has barely changed. Producers shipping into the European Union will need to demonstrate that their fiber is legal and deforestation-free, identify the plots where the wood was harvested and preserve the connection between those plots and the finished product. That requirement reaches beyond conventional sustainability certification and deep into supplier networks that were not designed to provide plot-level information. …The delay has given the industry a longer runway, but the remaining work lies at the hardest end of the supply chain: beyond the pellet plant, beyond direct suppliers and back to the land itself. Producers that can make that connection auditable will enter the next phase with more than a completed due diligence statement; they will possess a clearer view of the fiber networks on which their businesses depend.