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Breaking News

Canadian lumber is covered under the latest pause on tariff implementation

The National Association of Home Builders
March 7, 2025
Category: Breaking News
Region: Canada, United States

The situation surrounding tariffs remains fluid, with a flurry of activity in Washington this week. …On March 6, Trump announced a one-month tariff delay until April 2 on all products from Mexico and Canada that are covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). While there is no specific language in the USMCA addressing Canadian softwood lumber, NAHB worked with the White House to ensure it was covered under the latest pause on tariff implementation. Two essential materials used in new home construction, softwood lumber and gypsum (used for drywall), are largely sourced from Canada and Mexico, respectively. …If the new tariffs on Mexico and Canada go into effect next month, they are projected to raise the cost of imported construction materials by more than $3 billion. NAHB has received anecdotal reports from members that they are planning for tariffs to increase material costs between $7,500 and $10,000 on the average new single-family home. 

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Special Feature

Does the US really need Canadian wood products supply? Apparently yes.

By Dustin Jalbert
RISI Fastmarkets
March 10, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States

While the market tries to process what’s to come on the trade front, it’s abundantly clear that the new administration is paying special attention to lumber and likely other wood products. Trump and his surrogates have emphasized the point of view that the US has the underlying resources to produce all its own lumber and wood product needs. In response, there have been a number of news articles highlighting the statements and questioning the idea of whether or not America can quickly and completely wean itself off Canadian wood products. …Canada currently supplies about 12.0 BBF of softwood lumber to the US market. After accounting for the 1.3 BBF of exports the US has shipped in recent years, the US is still short just over 3.2 BBF of operable capacity to quickly fill Canadian lumber supply and still meet current demand levels. In other words, at current demand levels, the US softwood lumber market does not clear without Canadian supply.

…US sawmills could add second and/or third shifts to existing operations to eke out more production if prices and profitability warranted. …It’s plausible that the US could increase supply this way, but as basic economics teaches, there’s only so much upside to raising production by adding labor to the existing capital stock. What about building new sawmill capacity? …Even in favorable conditions, we are talking three to four years to build out the 3-4 BBF of sawmill capacity needed to replace Canadian supply. Even assuming modest demand growth over the remainder of the decade, the US would probably require closer to 10 years to completely and sustainably wean itself off external lumber supply. …Under the right policy conditions and given enough time, US “independence” from Canadian wood products supply and imports more broadly is a plausible scenario, but clearly comes with distinct trade-offs. The brunt of the pain over the near term will be carried by consumers as they absorb these higher prices, especially at a critical point when housing affordability in the US is also under a microscope.

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Business & Politics

Canadian ministers, Ontario premier to meet with Lutnick as tariff fight continues

By Kelly Malone
The Canadian Press in CP24 News
March 13, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

WASHINGTON — Canadian officials are set to meet with the U.S. commerce secretary in Washington today — days after a dust-up with U.S. President Donald Trump that ended with Ontario pausing its surcharge on electricity exports to the United States. Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman and Ontario Premier Doug Ford are meeting with Howard Lutnick, and Ford says his goal for the meeting is to get a coherent sense of the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs. …Elsewhere in the American capital, Trump’s choice for the next U.S ambassador to Canada is set to take questions today as the relationship between the two countries is strained by tariffs and threats of annexation. Pete Hoekstra, a former Michigan congressman, is scheduled to appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for a nomination hearing.

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Trump is furious that Canada won’t take his tariffs lying down

By the Editorial Board
The Wall Street Journal
March 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Doug Ford

President Trump wanted a trade war with the world, and Americans are getting it, good and hard. Stock prices continued to decline on Tuesday amid the latest Canada-U.S. tariff tit-for-tat. Ontario premier Doug Ford said he was raising the price of his province’s electricity exports to the U.S. by 25% in response to Mr. Trump’s on-and-off 25% tariffs on Canada. Mr. Trump went ballistic, even by his standards. …His exhortation that Canada become a US state is a tacit acknowledgment that the two economies are deeply integrated. His splendid little tariff war will harm businesses and consumers on both sides of the border. …Ontario’s Mr. Ford and Mr. Lutnick plan to meet Thursday. …The trouble with trade wars is that once they begin they can quickly escalate and get out of control. …We said from the beginning that this North American trade war is the dumbest in history, and we were being kind. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription s required]

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No reprieve on 25% tariffs for steel and aluminum: Lutnick

By Allyson Versprille
BNN Bloomberg Investing
March 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled he doesn’t expect a reprieve on 25% tariffs for steel and aluminum imports scheduled to take effect on Wednesday. The levies, ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump in February, include imports from Canada and Mexico — which are among the top foreign suppliers — and apply to finished metal products, too. U.S. steelmakers have urged Trump to resist exemptions to the tariffs, which risk hitting US companies that use aluminum and steel. Administration officials have said the policy is aimed at cracking down on efforts by countries including Russia and China to bypass existing duties. Last week, Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico but later walked back some of the changes — offering a one-month reprieve to automakers and then expanding that pause to all imported goods covered by the free-trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico.

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Ottawa announces $6.5 billion aid package for businesses hit by trade war

By Nick Murray and Kelly Malone
The Canadian Press in BNN Bloomberg
March 7, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Steven MacKinnon

The federal government has put together a $6.5 billion aid package and is making temporary changes to the employment insurance program to support Canadian businesses through the trade war with the United States. Ottawa’s new Trade Impact Program earmarks $5 billion over the next two years to help businesses cope with decreased U.S. sales and reach new global markets. It’s also making $500 million available for business loans of between $200,000 and $2 million at preferred interest rates, and another $1 billion for loans specifically for the agricultural sector. The government is also building new flexibility into the employment insurance program to help businesses retain workers by reducing work hours. “Employees can reduce their hours, spread the work across the same number of employees while compensating those employees through (employment insurance) for lost time or lost wages,” Employment Minister Steven MacKinnon said.

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Canfor posts Q4 net loss, looks to market diversification

By Nelson Bennett
Business in Vancouver
March 7, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Susan Yurkovich

Canfor posted a $63 million net loss in the fourth quarter of 2024 – a vast improvement over the $350 million net loss it posted earlier in Q3 2024. Other BC companies like West Fraser and Interfor have also reported improved sales numbers in the latter part of 2024. …“Following several quarters of very weak global lumber market conditions, we were pleased to see a slight uplift in North American benchmark lumber prices,” said Susan Yurkovich, Canfor’s CEO. …Owning sawmills in the US and Europe gives Canfor some insulation against duties imposed on Canadian softwood lumber imports into the US. …Canfor is looking at market diversification, however, to reduce its Canadian operations’ exposure to the US. …“Actual and potential tariffs do present challenges for the company’s Canadian operations, and, as result, the company is continuing its strategy of refocusing those products on domestic markets, particularly in Western Canada, and strengthening its presence in offshore markets.”

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Trump says tariffs on Mexico and Canada ‘could go up,’ declines to rule out possible recession

By Auzinea Bacon
CNN Business
March 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

President Donald Trump said tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico planned for April 2 “could go up,” and would not predict whether the United States will have a recession in 2025. On Fox News Sunday morning, Trump said reciprocal tariffs would go into effect on April 2 and the one-month reprieve granted to Mexico and Canada was a “little bit of a break.” …But Trump has continued to make changes to tariff plans. On Friday, he threatened new tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy products. Those tariffs could go into effect on Monday. …Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Trump’s promised 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will go into effect Wednesday and tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber products will “start on April 2.” …Lutnick indicated the tariffs will continue until Trump is “comfortable” with how both countries are handling the flow of fentanyl.

Related coverage in:

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Trump delays some tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month

By David Goldman
CNN Business
March 6, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

President Donald Trump on Thursday signed executive actions that delay for nearly one month tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada that are covered by the USMCA free trade treaty, a significant walkback of the administration’s signature economic plan that has rattled markets, businesses and consumers. The executive actions follow a discussion Trump held Thursday with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and negotiations between Canadian and Trump administration officials. …Energy from Canada, however, is not included in the USMCA, the White House official said. So that lower 10% tariff is expected to remain in place… but the Trump reduced the tariff on Canadian potash to 10%. …Canada will now pause their planned second round of tariffs on over 4,000 US goods until April 2, Canadian Minister of Finance Dominic LeBlanc said.

Related coverage in:

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Williams Lake, BC mayor relieved as power plant closure averted

Jenifer Norwell and Akshay Kulkarni
CBC News
March 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

The mayor of Williams Lake, BC says he’s relieved that the provincial government and province’s power provider have stepped in to stop a local power plant from shutting down. The privately-held Atlantic Power Corporation has operated the Northwest Energy plant in the central BC community since 1993. Provincial utility B.C. Hydro purchases the plant’s power for the grid through 10-year agreements. Atlantic Power’s plant, which employs around 30 people, generates energy by burning biomass — primarily wood waste, fibre from sawmills, and logging debris. But last year, the corporations told BC Hydro that it would shut down the plant in January 2025 as it was no longer profitable, citing a lack of viable fibre supply amid the forest industry’s wider struggles. On Friday, BC Hydro announced it had reached a deal with Atlantic Power to save the plant, saying it provided ways to source and manage cost-effective fuel.

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Northern Pulp seeking $2.5 billion in private-public funding to build new pulp mill

By Michael MacDonald
The Canadian Press in CTV News
March 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

HALIFAX — Northern Pulp, the company behind a Nova Scotia mill that shut down four years ago amid environmental shortcomings, says it will cost $2.5 billion to build a new, cutting-edge plant on the province’s southwest shore. But the company says the proposed project, which will require private and public funding, does not currently meet its required rate of profitability — and it wants until early May to secure financing. “The company will use the extension period to continue working to identify … potential financing opportunities,” the company said. “The company will begin steps to prepare for a sales process of Northern Pulp’s assets if a new mill is not feasible.” The insolvent company, owned by Paper Excellence Group also said it will be asking a BC judge to extend its court-ordered protection from creditors on Friday. The Nova Scotia government said that as a secured creditor, it would agree to a five-week extension.

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Nova Scotia government awaiting news on feasibility study for new pulp mill in Liverpool

By Michael Gorman
CBC News
March 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Nine months after Northern Pulp started examining the viability of a new mill in Queens County, Premier Tim Houston says the work continues. Houston announced last May that his government and officials with Northern Pulp’s parent company had reached a settlement agreement that ended years of legal wrangling, and would allow time to explore the viability of constructing a new mill at or around the site of the former Bowater mill near Liverpool. That work was expected to take about nine months. On Friday, the premier told reporters that he believes the company is still working to complete its feasibility study. …Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton said the forestry sector needs a market for pulpwood and low-grade wood products to take the place of what Northern Pulp used to consume.  …Rushton noted that there could be other options, such as the creation of biofuels and aviation fuels using forestry byproducts.

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Irving Paper doesn’t want subsidy, calls for fix to high power rates

By Adam Hurts
The Telegraph-Journal
March 5, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Irving Paper says it doesn’t want a government subsidy to save jobs, but that the province does need to step in to find a solution to high electricity rates. That’s as the company is criticizing “management issues” at NB Power. The Saint John manufacturer announced that it is cutting 140 jobs at its Bayside Drive mill. ….But in a new letter, Irving Paper VP Mark Mosher said a subsidy won’t work as it’s a problem affecting all New Brunswick ratepayers. …“For all of New Brunswick’s energy intensive and trade exposed industries, the issues and repercussions of uncompetitive electricity rates are not new and continue to worsen.” …Natural Resources Minister John Herron recently said his department has been working with J.D. Irving to develop a “financially sustainable” solution that preserves jobs for New Brunswickers. [to access the full story a Telegraph-Journal subscription is required]

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Vietnam wood exporters wary about surging tariff pressures

Vietnam Investment Review
March 13, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

In 2025, Vietnam’s wood industry is targeting $18-18.5 billion in total export value, up 10%-15% on-year. Ngo Sy Hoai, vice chairman of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (Viforest), revealed that under normal conditions, the goal would be achievable. However, in the current context of global trade turbulence, it is hard to determine whether the target will be realised. US President Donald Trump recently instructed the Department of Commerce to investigate under Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act regarding wood and wood products. This could result in tariffs of up to 25% on sawn wood and forestry products, effective as of April 2. The US is accounts for over half of Vietnam’s wood exports, primarily furniture, interior and exterior wood products, carpentry, and refined products, with some plywood, laminated boards, and several other products also being exported. Hoai noted, “Vietnamese wood businesses are on tenterhooks.”

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EU responds to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs with 26 billion euros in tariffs on US products

By Simone de la Feld
EU News
March 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

Ursula von der Leyen

BRUSSELS – “Strong and proportionate,” and above all, immediate countermeasures. The European Union… returns the favor to its overseas ally. From April 1, Brussels will apply tariffs on US goods worth up to 26 billion euros. While striking with one hand, Ursula von der Leyen extends the other toward Donald Trump: “We will always remain open to negotiation,” the EU leader said. The European Commission “deeply regrets” Trump’s move. …The EU has planned a two-step response: from April 1, the old rebalancing measures to the 2018 and 2020 tariffs, which apply to a range of products from boats to motorcycles to liquor like bourbon, will be reinstated. …A new package of tariffs on US products will go into effect in mid-April. This second round of countermeasures will cover steel and aluminum, textiles, leather goods, home appliances, household utensils, plastics, wood products. …Products subject to these measures include lumber, plywood, veneer, flooring, chipboard, fiberboard, pulp, and paper products.

Related coverage in Euro News: Trump escalates with 200% tariff on EU alcohol imports

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AF&PA Applauds Overdue EPA Regulatory Reconsiderations

The American Forest & Paper Association
March 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON – The American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) President and CEO Heidi Brock today issued the following statement in response to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin announcing actions reconsidering or ending various regulations that present growing challenges to U.S. pulp, paper and wood products manufacturers: “AF&PA has long communicated the need to dramatically improve the regulatory process to better serve the public interest, create jobs and strengthen the competitiveness of U.S. pulp, paper and wood products manufacturers. …In particular, AF&PA notes significant progress on the following:

  • Reconsideration of Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards, which has created permitting gridlock across the country (PM 2.5 NAAQS)
  • Ending the “Good Neighbor Plan,” which inappropriately included our industry as we did not meet the statutory criteria
  • Reconsideration of multiple National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for manufacturing sectors (NESHAPs), which will avoid unachievable rules with significant costs and limited benefits

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US building material dealers sound off on tariff volatility

The HBS Dealer
March 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

As we enter what are typically the most profitable months for US builders, widespread uncertainty regarding pricing is casting a pall over the industry. Northeastern Retail Lumber Association (NRLA) crystallizes these concerns, noting that: “Despite repeated delays of tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, prices continue to fluctuate unpredictably, leading to hoarding by customers, delayed orders for restocking, and customers abandoning purchases due to sudden cost increases.” The NRLA says the current situation recalls the tumult of pandemic-era supply chain shortages. “Now, dealers are reporting the same patterns: unpredictable cost increases, uncertainty in securing supply, and customers unable to move forward with purchases due to rapidly shifting prices.” …NRLA writes that daily price changes are making it impossible for retailers to provide accurate quotes, which constricts pricing guarantees. …NRLA dealers are reporting that even U.S.-made manufactured materials are seeing price increases.

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Builders Stockpile Lumber, Swap Out Materials to Work Around Tariffs

By Rebecca Picciotto
The Wall Street Journal
March 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

When President Trump threatened new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China at the beginning of February, Steve Martinez flew into action. The Idaho-based general contractor spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on materials like lumber, windows, cabinetry and steel to stockpile them before the tariffs hit. …Since his lenders wouldn’t finance these purchases, he is paying out of pocket and using cash. Then after the president abruptly walked them back, Martinez was left with an upended business plan, less cash and feeling confused about what to do next. “I can’t keep ping ponging back and forth,” Martinez said. …Builders have been doing what they can to insulate themselves from higher import costs, from stockpiling materials and appliances to shrinking the size of the homes they will build. But if tariffs take effect long term, they will only be able to absorb so much cost. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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This Is No Way to Run a Trade War

By Peter Harrell, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The Wall Street Journal
March 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

Thousands of US companies opened for business on Friday with no idea whether they had to pay tariffs. …In imposing the tariffs, Mr. Trump misused the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Congress passed IEEPA to give presidents tools to respond quickly to emergencies like wars or terrorist attacks. …IEEPA has never been used for tariffs, and courts should rule that it can’t be. …US trade laws require the president to identify and investigate specific trade practices that harm the U.S. and then propose remedies, such as tariffs or negotiations. A president may impose tariffs on specific goods if fact-finding determines that imports threaten US national security. Mr. Trump’s reasons for imposing tariffs on Canada don’t appear to satisfy these standards. …Faced with Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, Canadian, Mexican and European officials have indicated that they are open to collective action against China, the world’s biggest exporter and a major source of US trade deficits. [to access the full story, a WSJ subscription is required]

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EU Commission commences investigation into Brazilian softwood plywood imports

By Stephen Powney
The Timber Trades Journal
March 7, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: International

The EU Commission has started an anti-dumping investigation on Brazilian softwood plywood imports following a complaint by the Softwood Plywood Consortium (SPC). A complaint was made on January 20… alleging that Brazilian softwood ply imports are being dumped in the EU, thereby injuring the EU ply sector. The product subject to investigation is plywood consisting of lamellas not exceeding 6mm thickness, with both outer plies of coniferous wood. The SPC has provided evidence to the EU Commission that imports of the product in question have increased overall in absolute terms and in terms of market share. Evidence also pointed to the volume and prices of the imported product having a negative impact on the quantities sold and level of prices charged by the EU industry, resulting in substantial adverse impacts for the latter. 

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Finance & Economics

Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75%

By Jenna Benchetrit
CBC News
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The Bank of Canada has cut its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent, it announced on Wednesday. In a note explaining the decision, the bank said the economy started the year strong, with solid GDP growth and inflation within its two per cent target. But tariff uncertainty caused by the on-again, off-again trade war between Canada and the U.S. has weighed on business spending and hiring, and shaken consumer confidence, the decision said. It’s “against this backdrop” that the central bank decided to cut the rate by a quarter point, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem wrote in his remarks. …Macklem has noted in the past that the bank cannot shield the Canadian economy from the financial impact of tariffs, but that it can instead use interest rates to manage a potential surge in inflation.

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How tariffs are affecting lumber pricing

By Neil Agarwal, Frisco Woodline
The HBS Dealer
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

I have received several questions from owners and contractors regarding what to expect with lumber prices given the tariffs (or the potential of tariffs, depending on the day). The short answer is prices will go up. The long answer is much more complicated and hinges on a number of factors and considerations. 1. Almost 30 percent of the lumber used in the U.S. each year comes from Canada. …2. Any tariffs or potential for tariffs creates opportunistic price increases. …3. Demand, however, doesn’t seem to be particularly strong for new construction at this time. …4. Tariffs do help to onshore manufacturing (a long-term positive), but the trees aren’t all in America. …In the short-term, tariffs create more uncertainty and increased pricing, which only further adds to the inflation story. In the long-term, tariffs on lumber won’t achieve the level of onshoring that can happen in other industries. 

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Lumber Futures Rebound Amid Trade War Escalation

Trading Economics
March 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures rebounded to around $650 per thousand board feet, nearing the two-and-a-half-year high of $658 touched earlier this month as escalating U.S. tariff threats on steel, aluminum, and dairy—along with the prospect of sharply higher auto tariffs—stoked fears of further trade restrictions, reversing the recent plunge. The renewed trade war tensions have heightened concerns that lumber could be the next target, prompting traders to reassess supply risks. Earlier, prices had dropped to around $600 after President Trump delayed a 25% tariff on Canadian softwood for the second time, temporarily easing supply concerns. The proposed levy, which would raise total duties to as much as 52%, could significantly strain North American production and push construction costs higher. However, the latest escalation in the trade war has reversed sentiment, with traders wary that lumber could still face new restrictions, driving speculative buying. [END]

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The Reason So Much of America’s Lumber Comes From Canada

By Karuna Eberl
Family Handyman
March 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Now that a 25% tariff on lumber from Canada is looming, will this cause crazy wood pricing to return? To some extent, that is very probable, and here’s why. In 2024, our country got about 72% of its lumber from its own forests. The rest was imported from various countries, especially Canada, from which we purchased 28.1 million cubic meters last year. Canada accounts for 84.3% of all softwood lumber imports. …While it might be possible to switch to importing more lumber from other countries, none has Canada’s large production capacity. Also, supply chains — especially for lumber — are complex and costly to change, says Frederik Laleicke, at NC State University. …As long as demand for lumber doesn’t drop, a 25% tariff on Canada will likely make lumber—and therefore new houses and renovations—more expensive since US companies will raise the price of Canadian-sourced lumber to compensate for the tariffs.

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‘Very difficult position’: Bank of Canada expected to cut rate amid trade uncertainty

By Craig Lord
The Canadian Press in CTV News
March 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Tiff Macklem

OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement arrives on Wednesday in a cloud of uncertainty thanks to a shifting trade war with the United States. Most economists expect the central bank will deliver another quarter-point rate cut while it waits to see how long the dispute with Canada’s largest trading partner lasts. The Bank of Canada faces a difficult task: setting monetary policy at a time when inflation has shown signs of stubbornness and the economy picks up steam, while risks of a sharp downturn tied to U.S. tariffs loom on the horizon. …Even as U.S. President Donald Trump followed through on his promises to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods on March 4, the exact nature of those tariffs have shifted with a series of pauses and amendments in the days since.

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US lumber futures slide on Trump’s Canadian tariffs delay

By Susanna Savage
The Financial Times
March 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

US lumber futures have fallen from their all-time highs after president Trump’s delay to tariffs on Canada this week halted a surge in prices. Contracts tracking a truckload of lumber hit the highest point in their 30-month history this week. …Trump initially planned to impose 25% tariffs on critical Canadian imports, boosting prices, but Thursday’s pause for a month pushed prices for delivery in May down more than 6% over two days, to $651 per MBF. Even so, prices remain elevated as Trump also ordered a federal investigation into Canadian companies potentially dumping excess supplies into the US market. …Together with potential tariffs, the total duty on Canadian imports could rise from 14.5 per cent to 52 per cent. “This is going to be devastating for Canadian producers,” said Dustin Jalbert, senior economist for wood products at price reporting agency Fastmarkets. “No Canadian producer is making the margin to be able to absorb that.”

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Conifex Timber reports Q4, 2024 net loss of $29.8 million

By Conifex Timber Inc.
Globe Newswire in the Financial Post
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

VANCOUVER — Conifex Timber reported results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024. EBITDA from continuing operations was negative $2.1 million for the quarter and negative $13.6 million for the year, compared to EBITDA of negative $3.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and negative $25.8 million for the year. Net loss was $29.8 million for the quarter while it was $11.8 million for the full year. …While there are signs that the macro-environment for the lumber industry is starting to improve, Conifex continues to review its options to improve liquidity. …Since January 6, 2025, we have been operating our sawmill complex on a two-shift basis and capturing the dual benefits of higher shipments and lower unit costs that a two-shift operation provides over a single-shift configuration. 

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US Inflation Eased Ahead of Tariffs

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Inflation slowed to a 3-month low in February, with decreases in airfares and gasoline partially offsetting shelter increases. Despite the easing, the report does not capture upcoming tariff impacts. The inflationary pressure from tariffs and trade war would weigh on the economy and complicate the Fed’s path to its 2% target. Meanwhile, while housing drove nearly half of February’s inflation increase and remains higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 3.4%, it continues to show signs of cooling – the year-over-year change in the shelter index remained below 5% for a sixth straight month and posted its lowest annual gain since December 2021. While the Fed’s interest rate cuts could help ease some pressure on the housing market, its ability to address rising housing costs is limited. …Consequently, the election result has put inflation back in the spotlight and added additional upside and downside risks to the economic outlook.

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US Consumer Housing Sentiment Down Year over Year for First Time Since 2023

Fannie Mae
March 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON, DC – The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased 1.8 points in February to 71.6, driven largely by consumers’ increased pessimism that mortgage rates will go down in the next year. The share of consumers who say it is a good time to buy a home inched up last month to 24%, while the share who say it is a good time to sell dipped to 62%. February also saw a notable decline in consumers’ optimism toward their personal financial situation, including household income and concern they could lose their job. Year over year, the HPSI is down 1.2 points. …Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “We continue to expect home sales activity to remain relatively light over our forecast horizon due to the ongoing lack of supply and overall unaffordability.”

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How Rising Costs Affect US Home Affordability

By Na Zhao
The NAHB Eye on Housing
March 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Housing affordability remains a critical issue, with 74.9% of US households unable to afford a median-priced new home in 2025, according to NAHB’s latest analysis. With a median price of $459,826 and a 30-year mortgage rate of 6.5%, this translates to around 100.6 million households priced out of the market, even before accounting for further increases in home prices or interest rates. A $1,000 increase in the median price of new homes would price an additional 115,593 households out of the market. The 2024 priced-out estimates for all states and the District of Columbia and over 300 metropolitan statistical areas are shown in the interactive map below. It highlights the growing housing affordability challenges across the United States. In 23 states and the District of Columbia, over 80% of households are priced out of the median-priced new home market. This indicates a significant disconnect between rising home prices and household incomes.

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US homebuilders face a supply chain snarl from tariff battles

By Thomas Seal and Prashant Gopal
Bloomberg in The Business Times
March 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

President Trump’s push for tariffs on Canada – and his subsequent delays and exemptions – are frustrating efforts to import lumber from the country and putting the building supply market on edge. The back-and-forth over whether tariffs will be imposed or not has businesses unable to trust price stability, and risks backing up the supply chain for US homebuilders. The reluctance to pay a tariff, which could be changed or cancelled any day, “freezes these markets up,” according to Don Magruder, who runs a building material company based in Florida. …Andy Rielly, president of Rielly Lumber in British Columbia, said he’s been in talks with long-term customers on how to divvy up the extra costs, but not everyone has been able to strike deals. …The US’s National Association of Home Builders chairman Buddy Hughes said tariffs risk worsening housing affordability. …The US Lumber Coalition said that lumber prices are only a fraction of homebuilding costs.

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Made-in-U.S.A. Lumber Futures Are Coming to Wall Street

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal in Yahoo!Finance
March 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

Lumber producers have migrated from Canada to the US South. Now lumber-futures trading is heading to the Southern pineries as well. The exchange operator CME Group said it would launch trading in Southern yellow pine futures on March 31, a response to rising export taxes on Canadian lumber. The futures contracts—ticker: SYP—will give the South’s loblolly planters, loggers, sawmills, pressure treaters and builders a mechanism to manage their exposure to price swings that is more in line with the local market than existing futures. …Traders and the exchange have for years discussed Southern yellow pine futures as the region’s production grew. Now that Northern lumber is a lot more expensive, they are saying the time is right. …Southern yellow pine doesn’t always work as a substitute for the Northern species favored by home builders. But executives said the growing price difference is prompting pockets of buyers to swap.

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Wood, Paper & Green Building

Amid tariff dustup, RONA pivots to Canadian-made goods.

The HBS Dealer
March 10, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada

Hard-nosed tariffs imposed on Canadian goods may have been postponed until April 2, but RONA, one of Canada’s largest hardware and home improvement retailers, is making a play for more locally sourced products. The company says it will be highlighting over 6,500 Canadian-made products and will “make a concerted effort” to promote these items in RONA+ and RONA stores. The company, which has over 425 corporate and affiliate stores across Canada, says it’s responding to a growing demand from consumers and contractors who want to prioritize local products. “We’ve always had a strong selection of Canadian-made products. In fact, less than 10 percent of our supply comes directly from the United States. The challenge was primarily about making these products more visible.

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Forestry

BC town faces economic fallout after sheltering thousands fleeing Alberta wildfire

By Stefan Labbe
Business in Vancouver
March 11, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

VALEMOUNT, BC — “Everyone in Jasper and Jasper National Park must evacuate now,” warned Alberta emergency officials. On July 22, 2024, 30-kilometre-an-hour winds had swept two small fires into flames up to 50 metres high. Unable to contain the blaze, firefighters pulled back, and soon, thousands of people were sent fleeing. …But Jasper is not the only town suffering from the disaster’s fallout. As the fire approached, many fled west into the neighbouring province of British Columbia. Within hours, the Village of Valemount — BC’s northernmost resort town — ballooned with more than 20,000 people, more than 20 times its normal population. Locals opened their homes and restaurants. The municipal government set up public facilities for evacuees needing a place to sleep and bathe. …“We basically had 20,000 people. Then we had no people,” said Valemount Mayor Owen Torgerson. …By the time most of the displaced had left, Valemount’s August high season had passed.

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In support of clear-cutting.

By Brian LaPointe, Forestry Consultant
Castanet
March 7, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

Are clear-cuts in forestry bad? I would say no. Nature demands that there is a mosaic of age classes to support conservation of biodiversity. …Wildfire “clearcuts” following insect invasion, disease, wind or old old trees aging out in many forests. …Logging and tree planting have proven logged clear-cuts are a gentler treatment for refreshing forests when compared to traumatic wildfires. On top of the biodiversity and conservation benefits, we get socioeconomic benefits of forest products and employment and resulting government services and infrastructure. …In certain areas where trees are shade tolerant, such as in Interior Douglas Fir areas, various types of selection may be prescribed to fit the ecology of the site. Biodiversity provides for all species in a mosiac of different types across the landscape. Look outside, it is not one continuous environment.

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The Felling of the US Forest Service

By Peter Slevin
The New Yorker
March 13, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States

With $2.6 billion in hurricane-recovery money on its way to the national forests of North Carolina, Jenifer Bunty, a US Forest Service disaster-recovery specialist, spent much of the week of February 10th working on a plan to start spending the money. Four months after Hurricane Helene, this meant deciding which bridges urgently needed to be rebuilt, which road repairs prioritized. …“The days of rule by unelected bureaucrats are over,” Donald Trump declared in his speech to Congress last week. For the White House, the firing of tens of thousands of federal workers like Bunty is evidence of “promises made, promises kept.” But for the Forest Service the loss of at least two thousand workers will make it harder to fight ever-worsening wildfires and storms across the country. …After the Trump cuts, a spokesperson for the USDA said that they didn’t include “operational firefighters,” a term Bunty had never heard. 

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Northwest Forest Plan advisers told their committee will be disbanded

By April Ehrlich
Oregon Public Broadcasting
March 7, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US West

Federal officials are preparing to disband an advisory committee tasked with guiding policies for millions of acres of national forests in the Pacific Northwest. …The 21 members of the Northwest Forest Plan federal advisory committee… have been meeting since summer 2023, hashing out how to tackle wildfires, pests and diseases across nearly 25 million acres of national forests in Oregon, Washington and Northern California. On Thursday, officials with the US Forest Service told committee members the agency was likely to dissolve the group in the coming weeks. Some members said they had been expecting this news. …The Forest Service pulled the committee together to help amend the decades-old Northwest Forest Plan, a set of policies that came out of the timber wars of the 1980s and ’90s. …The committee delivered its recommendations to the Forest Service last year.

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The European union deforestation regulation may boost low-deforestation countries like Canada and the United States

By Craig Johnston, Jinggang Guo and Jeffrey Prestemon
Science Direct
March 10, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: International

The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to prevent deforestation-linked products from entering the EU market. This study assesses the potential impacts of the EUDR on global forest product markets using the FOrest Resource Outlook Model (FOROM). We simulate two scenarios: the baseline EUDR, focused on commodity-driven deforestation and urbanization, and an extended EUDR+ scenario, which includes shifting agriculture. The results indicate that high-deforestation countries, such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia, are expected to face significant reductions in roundwood production and exports, with downstream effects on sawnwood and panel prices. In contrast, low-deforestation countries like Canada and the United States may experience slight increases in production to meet EU demand, but their impact is limited by moderate deforestation rates. The study also highlights the potential for market leakage, where deforestation-linked products may shift to non-EU markets, potentially undermining global environmental goals. 

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Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy

Canada is opening the floodgates on one of Earth’s greatest living reservoirs of CO2

By Barry Saxifrage
The National Observer
March 11, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: Canada

Canada’s managed forest is one of the largest living reservoirs of carbon on the planet. For centuries it slowly filled, as billions of growing trees pulled CO2 from the air and stored it away in their wood. This ancient, continent-spanning, “carbon sink” helped keep the climate calm and cool. But in the last couple of decades, the flow of CO2 has completely reversed. Chainsaws and fossil fuel pollution are cranking open the floodgates that hold back this enormous reservoir of forest carbon. What started as a trickle a couple of decades ago has turned into a flood. Billions of tonnes of CO2 that were locked away in the forest have already drained back out on the backs of logging trucks and in the swirling smoke of ever more monstrous wildfires. This outpouring of forest carbon back into the atmosphere now dwarfs the fossil fuel emissions of most nations. 

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Central America, Vancouver deals push Eastwood past 50% fund deployment

By Chris Janiec
Agri Investor
March 9, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: Canada, United States

Eastwood Forests has deployed slightly more than half of its debut fund through deals that have included acquisitions in Costa Rica, Panama and Canada. North Carolina-headquartered Eastwood announced its acquisition of 14,500 ha of northern Vancouver Island timberland from Western Forest Products for $69.2 million in February. …Eastwood VP for transactions Prab Dahal said “Western has done a good job in managing the forests but our philosophies are slightly different in that we probably would not have as much openings and as much clear-cuts as Western did in the past,” said Dahal. …“It has more versatility than the typical natural forest that we look for elsewhere,” said Dahal. “We can manage this purely for carbon and still do good, or manage purely as a plantation and continuously manage with a harvesting level that is sustainable and can do good, financially, for our investors.” …Eastwood was established in 2022. 

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