Kevin Mason
The conflict in Iran has extended into a sixth week. Despite growing fears about economic wreckage (we have already seen cracks in consumer sentiment, mortgage rates climbing, etc.), we have yet to see any significant second- and third-order impacts on forest products commodities (the operative word is yet). Despite President Trump’s suggestion that the US will retreat from the Middle East in the next two to three weeks, risks abound. Even with a retreat, the risk to the world’s energy arteries will likely persist; it is only a matter of time before companies in our universe suffer the consequences of the war.
Some cost inflation has shown up quickly (e.g., energy and transport) and will pressure margins as soon as Q2. While a select few companies (those in certain packaging and paper grades) may successfully hike prices to at least partially offset higher costs, for others the downside peril to underlying demand means that margin compression is a risk (prices could fall without supply reductions). As such, while our commodity price and company earnings forecasts have not declined materially, we are adopting a more cautionary approach to valuations and moving EBITDA multiples lower for companies and commodities for which we perceive at more risk. …Several producers in our space needed markets to come to the rescue this year; however, with each passing day that the world is mired in this conflict, it looks increasingly as if 2026 will become another year to survive.
We find ourselves once again compelled to address the 
The US says in a new report that Canada is failing to stop foreign goods made with forced labour from entering its market, a finding that coincides with Washington’s probe into the matter, which could lead to more tariffs. The 2026 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers from the US government says it appears Canada is importing goods that cost less than they should because they were made with forced labour. It’s an early indication of how the US will rule on Canada. …US customs policy treats all goods from China’s Xinjiang region as though they were made with forced labour unless importers can provide “clear and convincing evidence” to the contrary. …Canada passed a law, the 
OTTAWA — Provincial rules around alcohol and the federal government’s “Buy Canadian” policy have been flagged in a new report citing several trade irritants between Canada and the US. The annual document prepared by the Office of the US Trade Representative said market access barriers imposed by provincial liquor control boards “greatly hamper” exports of US wine, beer and spirits to Canada. …The report says U.S. companies have reported concerns about barriers in competing for contracts, including proving their Canadian subsidiary’s independence from a US parent company. Other issues listed in the report include delays with aircraft validation in Canada and high tariffs on U.S. dairy products. …Canada is still being slammed by Trump’s separate tariffs on industries like steel, aluminum, autos, lumber and cabinets. The Trump administration has launched investigations of a long list of countries, including Canada, citing forced labour in supply chains. 
Canadian officials are considering unusual measures to protect domestic producers of vegetables and wood products from low-priced imports. The move threatens to complicate Prime Minister Mark Carney’s efforts to fight US tariffs and strengthen Canada’s trade relationships with other countries, while also tackling cost-of-living challenges. Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne ordered an investigation last month into imports of frozen and canned vegetables. …He also said he’d received an “urgent” request for trade protection from makers of wood furniture, cabinets and flooring, adding that his department would respond soon. …The group behind the appeal on wood products, the Canadian Wood Products Alliance, is seeking a temporary tariff of 100 per cent to 125 per cent for four years, representative Alain Ouzilleau said. The measure would apply to all imports except those from the US. or Mexico, he added. …Canada wood-products manufacturers were already facing increased competition from China.
WASHINGTON — Countless logging trucks rumbled through timber country, their drivers headed toward Hampton Lumber’s sawmill in Morton. …”We take our logs and get every bit out of it that we possibly can. And we replant,” said plant superintendent Tony Gillispie. “We want this to last for hundreds of years.” But will Washington’s timber industry overcome its ongoing slump and endure for centuries? Myriad issues are at play, with fingers pointing in every direction. The private sector, which harvests the majority of Washington’s wood, feels squeezed by policies restricting its access to state trust lands in the fight against climate change. …Meanwhile, the state government points to the residual effects of trade wars, particularly with China, after Washington’s exports of forest products hit a 21-year low in 2025. Local demand for lumber has also dropped in line with the recent slowdown in construction activity across the state.
KINGSPORT, Tennessee — A new wastewater treatment system at Domtar’s Kingsport mill is still on schedule to start running later this year, part of an effort by the mill to mitigate odors affecting neighboring residents. Mill Manager Tony Clary updated the Kingsport Economic Development Board on the project’s timeline, the construction of an anaerobic digester, at the board’s monthly meeting Tuesday. The project is at a halfway point, and the new system is expected to ramp up at the end of the year. The mill faced scrutiny from city officials and residents over odors emitting from its wastewater after the site converted from manufacturing paper to recycling containerboard in 2023. The company secured funding to construct a new wastewater treatment system in December 2024 and broke ground in August 2025.
MOBILE COUNTY, Alabama — A lumber company is set to make a multi-million dollar investment into its Port City location. According to a release, a subsidiary of Canfor Southern Pine, New South Lumber Company Inc., is investing $10.5 million in the Mobile County location. The company will be adding “a new dual-path continuous dry kiln.” This move aims to increase efficiency and drying capacity, as well as provide room for growth in the future. “This investment reinforces the company’s commitment to maintaining and strengthening its existing workforce and ensuring the long-term sustainability of the operation,” said Canfor Southern Pine Inc. President Lee Goodloe. Construction is set to begin in April and be completed in June.
Lumber futures tumbled toward $580 per thousand board feet, marking a one month low as the combination of high interest rates and falling home construction has crushed demand faster than sawmills can reduce supply. This downward pressure is driven by a 14.2% collapse in single family housing starts and a 5.4% decline in building permits that signaled an abrupt cooling of spring activity. While ongoing sawmill closures have removed 1.3 billion board feet of capacity and US duties on Canadian imports remain at 45% these supply factors are failing to support prices against a sharp loss of buyers. The recent surge in mortgage rates to 6.46% has stifled traffic and left builders managing a 2.4% increase in unsold inventory that necessitates immediate price cuts. Furthermore the April 2nd announcement of C$2.1 billion in Canadian forestry subsidies has introduced expectations of more wood availability that offsets the risks of shipping delays through the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher inflation and weaker growth ahead are inevitable for the global economy as a consequence of the Iran war, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Monday as the institution prepares to cut its forecasts. “All roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said Monday night. Before the war, the IMF anticipated issuing a small upgrade on its outlook for global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, according to Georgieva. But those expectations have since been upended as the Iran conflict has sent shockwaves through the global economy that are unlikely to unravel anytime soon, even if the war is brought to a rapid resolution. …“Directionally, it is stagflation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s higher inflation and weaker economic growth that is the result of policy — tariff policy and immigration policy.”
Mortgage rates, which dipped below 6% in February, climbed back up to end the month just under 6.4%. According to 
The landscape of the United States wood products industry in 2026 is being shaped by evolution from commodity lumber toward high-performance engineered wood systems. …While traditional sawmills have faced a turbulent consolidation period, the emergence of mass timber, specifically glulam and cross laminated timber, have created a high-growth sector that is increasingly more independent from the traditional volatility of the single-family residential market. …On the supply side, the wood industry is navigating a period of restructured supply and capacity following a series of significant mill closures in recent years. …Looking ahead to 2027 and beyond, as new mills come online, the industry is poised to move engineered wood products and mass timber from a niche specialty to a standard building practice. The core business challenge for the next 24 months will be the development of a more robust domestic supply chain that can support American builders amid logistics disruptions. 
US consumer confidence unexpectedly edged up in March, but households anticipated higher inflation over the next 12 months amid a surge in gasoline prices and continued tariffs pass-through, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 91.8 this month. Data for February was revised slightly down to show the index at 91.0 instead of 91.2. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 88.0. “Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025. The month-long U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has sent global oil prices surging more than 50%.
National housing data shows deck inclusion in new homes remains below 18%, according to the US Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction. For dealers and distributors, that number doesn’t tell the whole story. It does, however, set the stage for a stronger, more profitable era for decking—especially in custom home construction and high-end remodel markets. Custom builds may represent a smaller slice of total housing starts, but they also make up a disproportionately larger share of premium decking materials and system upgrades. And that’s where one opportunity lies. In the custom builder market, decks are far from an afterthought. They’re often part of the architectural plan from Day 1—particularly in markets with walkout basements, elevated foundations, and building lots with natural views. …The stakes go beyond just a nice-looking place to sit outside. Today’s builders, remodelers, and homeowners need environmentally sound, code ready, and easy to install materials.
The Associated Press, one of the world’s oldest and most influential news organizations, said Monday it is offering buyouts to an unspecified number of its US-based journalists as part of an acceleration away from the focus on newspapers and their print journalism that sustained the company since the mid-1800s. The News Media Guild, the union that represents AP journalists, said more than 120 of the staff members it represents received buyout offers on Monday. The news organization is becoming more focused on visual journalism and developing new revenue sources, particularly through companies investing in artificial intelligence, to cope with the economic collapse of many legacy news outlets. Once the lion’s share of AP’s revenue, big newspaper companies now account for 10% of its income. “We’re not a newspaper company and we haven’t been for quite some time,” Julie Pace, executive editor and senior vice president of the AP, said.
As more U.S. states consider extended producer responsibility (EPR) laws, the American Forest & Paper Association warns the policy could raise the cost of everyday goods, Midland reports. EPR raises costs for American families because it shifts recycling expenses onto manufacturers. Global studies show when there are new regulatory fees, prices for packaged items increase. EPR works like a consumption tax. It ultimately increases the overall cost of groceries, household goods and paper products. As a result, Americans will feel the impact when shopping at the grocery store and for everyday necessities, according to AF&PA. EPR will increase costs without improving paper recycling. …Extended Producer Responsibility requires companies to pay for collecting, recycling and disposing of their products. That’s true even for materials like paper that are already widely and successfully recycled today.
As with any other natural resource, building with wood starts with ensuring each piece is up to snuff. And while there are machines to help vis-a-vis bots spotting knots, human eyes and judgement remain essential. To help expand that human portion of the grading project, the Pacific Lumber Inspection Bureau (PLIB) has rolled out the Fundamentals of Lumber Grading. 
DENMARK — The timber industry is intensifying efforts to expand the use of wood in construction, with a new action plan aiming to raise its market share to 20% by 2030. Launched under the “TiB 2.0” initiative by industry body Træ i Byggeriet, the strategy seeks to accelerate adoption by addressing key barriers, including restrictive building regulations, entrenched industry practices and limited knowledge of wood’s capabilities. Lauritz Rasmussen, head of the organisation’s secretariat, said the initiative builds on growing interest in timber as a sustainable building material but acknowledges progress has been too slow. He stated that “all reason dictates that we should use more wood for the climate, the environment and for the qualities for which wood is recognized”. The plan focuses on increasing visibility, improving documentation and promoting knowledge-sharing to influence decision-makers. Leadership changes also form part of the strategy, with Per Thomas Dahl of CLT Denmark appointed as the new chairman.
TOKYO — Leaders from the global forestry sector met last week in Tokyo to advance the 
A years-long investigation into a special RCMP unit that polices protests against resource extraction in BC is finished but can’t be finalized because the RCMP’s oversight body has been without a chairperson for more than a year. The Civilian Review and Complaints Commission (CRCC) receives and oversees public complaints against the Mounties. It recently announced the completion of a systemic investigation into the Community-Industry Response Group (C-IRG), which drew national attention in 2019. …It’s unclear why the CRCC has been without a chairperson since January 2025. …At the top level of the agency there is meant to be a chairperson and up to four other members. According to the CRCC, all of those positions are currently vacant. …The majority of complaints against C-IRG came in response to civil court injunction enforcements and arrests in relation to Wet’suwet’en-led opposition to Coastal GasLink pipeline and protests against old-growth logging in the Fairy Creek area.
The administrative architecture of America’s national forests is undergoing its most radical transformation in decades. In a series of swift moves designed to prioritize industrial output over conservation, the Trump administration has initiated a sweeping overhaul of the US Forest Service (USFS), relocating its headquarters and dismantling the regional oversight structures. …By moving the agency’s center of gravity from Washington, DC, to Salt Lake City, Utah, and shuttering nine regional offices, the administration is pivoting away from a centralized, science-driven conservation model toward a decentralized system focused on the immediate extraction of timber and wood products. For rural America, the impact is twofold. While the administration is pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into the timber industry and sawmill infrastructure, the move guts the scientific research and environmental safeguards that many rural communities rely on. This transition effectively replaces long-term ecological stewardship with a short-term commodity-driven mandate.
Tropical forests span 1.6 billion hectares of Earth. …But over the past two decades, an average of 10 million hectares of these forests have been lost each year, according to the United Nations Environment Programme, affecting the ecosystems and communities that depend on them. NASA scientists recently developed a new method for tracking tropical forest loss that delivers deforestation alerts more than three months faster than current methods. Although the technique was designed for the Amazon rainforest, data from a recently launched satellite are expected to expand its application globally. …To address Landsat’s cloud challenge, researchers at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center tuned into a different wavelength. Led by Africa Flores-Anderson, associate program manager for NASA’s Ecosystem Conservation Program, the team piloted a system for the Amazon that combines existing satellite-based approaches with cutting-edge radar data. …Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) doesn’t require daylight or clear skies. 
For the last 25 years, 58 million acres of American forest have had no new roads, no logging equipment, and no reason to appear on anyone’s industrial map. This year that is changing — and much faster than most people realize. The 
In the North Cascades… the Mount Baker School District is facing a budget deficit exceeding $1 million, which local officials say is tied to declining timber sales on state lands. Three years ago, the rural district entered into what’s known as “binding conditions,” an arrangement where the state now oversees its day-to-day financial operations. Since then, it’s cut around 30 employees and increased class sizes. “Our main reason that we went in binding conditions was a precipitous drop in timber revenue,” said Russ Pfeiffer-Hoyt, school board president. The district’s timber revenue predicament is not unique among rural school districts. And it highlights rising tension around how the state is managing its public forests at a time when Lands Commissioner Dave Upthegrove has limited logging of some older tracts of trees. In the backdrop is a debate about whether Washington’s K-12 schools should depend heavily — or at all — on timber harvests.
Mountains across the West have lost their usual wintry look this year. Snowpacks in the Cascade Range, the central and southern Rockies, and the Sierra Nevada are significantly below average. As of February 1, 2026, Oregon, Colorado, and Utah reported the lowest snowpack levels on record since continuous snow data collection began in the early 1980s. …This condition is a snow drought—a period when snowpack is abnormally low relative to the time of year and location. Many of the areas with low snow received ample precipitation early in the season. November and December snowfall was near normal in many parts of the West and looked to be setting the stage for a reasonable snow year. However, warm and dry January conditions and scattered rain-on-snow events in February caused much of the early accumulated snow to melt. This condition has put large parts of the West in a 
ANCHORAGE, Alaska – The federal government isn’t holding public meetings on a rule that could reshape logging across the nation’s largest national forest — so a conservation group is doing it instead. The Southeast Alaska Conservation Council is hosting a series of community “public hearings” this month on the Tongass National Forest’s roadless rule. …The group plans to collect public testimony and submit it directly into the federal record as the US Forest Service weighs potential changes to those protections. Nathan Newcomer, SEACC’s Tongass campaigner, said the group stepped in after learning the Forest Service had no plans to hold its own public meetings. …The Forest Service is expected to publish a draft environmental impact statement on the roadless rule — a step that would open a formal public comment period. Newcomer said that the window is expected to last 30 days and could begin as soon as late April.
