Blog Archives

Breaking News

Canadian lumber is covered under the latest pause on tariff implementation

The National Association of Home Builders
March 7, 2025
Category: Breaking News
Region: Canada, United States

The situation surrounding tariffs remains fluid, with a flurry of activity in Washington this week. …On March 6, Trump announced a one-month tariff delay until April 2 on all products from Mexico and Canada that are covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). While there is no specific language in the USMCA addressing Canadian softwood lumber, NAHB worked with the White House to ensure it was covered under the latest pause on tariff implementation. Two essential materials used in new home construction, softwood lumber and gypsum (used for drywall), are largely sourced from Canada and Mexico, respectively. …If the new tariffs on Mexico and Canada go into effect next month, they are projected to raise the cost of imported construction materials by more than $3 billion. NAHB has received anecdotal reports from members that they are planning for tariffs to increase material costs between $7,500 and $10,000 on the average new single-family home. 

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Special Feature

Does the US really need Canadian wood products supply? Apparently yes.

By Dustin Jalbert
RISI Fastmarkets
March 10, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States

While the market tries to process what’s to come on the trade front, it’s abundantly clear that the new administration is paying special attention to lumber and likely other wood products. Trump and his surrogates have emphasized the point of view that the US has the underlying resources to produce all its own lumber and wood product needs. In response, there have been a number of news articles highlighting the statements and questioning the idea of whether or not America can quickly and completely wean itself off Canadian wood products. …Canada currently supplies about 12.0 BBF of softwood lumber to the US market. After accounting for the 1.3 BBF of exports the US has shipped in recent years, the US is still short just over 3.2 BBF of operable capacity to quickly fill Canadian lumber supply and still meet current demand levels. In other words, at current demand levels, the US softwood lumber market does not clear without Canadian supply.

…US sawmills could add second and/or third shifts to existing operations to eke out more production if prices and profitability warranted. …It’s plausible that the US could increase supply this way, but as basic economics teaches, there’s only so much upside to raising production by adding labor to the existing capital stock. What about building new sawmill capacity? …Even in favorable conditions, we are talking three to four years to build out the 3-4 BBF of sawmill capacity needed to replace Canadian supply. Even assuming modest demand growth over the remainder of the decade, the US would probably require closer to 10 years to completely and sustainably wean itself off external lumber supply. …Under the right policy conditions and given enough time, US “independence” from Canadian wood products supply and imports more broadly is a plausible scenario, but clearly comes with distinct trade-offs. The brunt of the pain over the near term will be carried by consumers as they absorb these higher prices, especially at a critical point when housing affordability in the US is also under a microscope.

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Opinion / EdiTOADial

Tariff uncertainty adds to risk of recession, holds back business investment and consumer spending

Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
March 3, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

It would be impossible to list the 70+ executive orders signed and published so far under the new US administration. Some of these edicts are clear and enforceable, while some have been challenged. We have discussed at length the potential impact of 25% blanket tariffs on imports of Canadian forest products. Collectively, this torrent of change has created uncertainty, slowing business decision-making—and, therefore, investment. We have seen this paralysis in the lumber markets, with buyers and sellers unsure of how to prepare for tariffs, and confusion leading to inaction. The same is true at the individual level, with mass layoffs in the public sector. Workplaces that see mass firings also tend to freeze up, slowing workflow as employees contemplate their future.

Recessions can be caused by shocks to the system on the supply or the demand side. There is no question that the executive orders to date have shocked the systems of both government and international trade; this has apparently been intentional. The question is whether or not supply, demand and labour can respond appropriately with minimal disruption. Over time, clearly, they can in an economy as dynamic and entrepreneurial as that of the US; in the short-term, however, there is a risk that uncertainty holds back both business investment and consumer spending. …High interest rates have held back both housing demand and housing supply. If tariffs are indeed implemented, prices should rise and rates will not fall (unless a recession ensues).

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Business & Politics

No reprieve on 25% tariffs for steel and aluminum: Lutnick

By Allyson Versprille
BNN Bloomberg Investing
March 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled he doesn’t expect a reprieve on 25% tariffs for steel and aluminum imports scheduled to take effect on Wednesday. The levies, ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump in February, include imports from Canada and Mexico — which are among the top foreign suppliers — and apply to finished metal products, too. U.S. steelmakers have urged Trump to resist exemptions to the tariffs, which risk hitting US companies that use aluminum and steel. Administration officials have said the policy is aimed at cracking down on efforts by countries including Russia and China to bypass existing duties. Last week, Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico but later walked back some of the changes — offering a one-month reprieve to automakers and then expanding that pause to all imported goods covered by the free-trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico.

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Ottawa announces $6.5 billion aid package for businesses hit by trade war

By Nick Murray and Kelly Malone
The Canadian Press in BNN Bloomberg
March 7, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Steven MacKinnon

The federal government has put together a $6.5 billion aid package and is making temporary changes to the employment insurance program to support Canadian businesses through the trade war with the United States. Ottawa’s new Trade Impact Program earmarks $5 billion over the next two years to help businesses cope with decreased U.S. sales and reach new global markets. It’s also making $500 million available for business loans of between $200,000 and $2 million at preferred interest rates, and another $1 billion for loans specifically for the agricultural sector. The government is also building new flexibility into the employment insurance program to help businesses retain workers by reducing work hours. “Employees can reduce their hours, spread the work across the same number of employees while compensating those employees through (employment insurance) for lost time or lost wages,” Employment Minister Steven MacKinnon said.

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Canfor posts Q4 net loss, looks to market diversification

By Nelson Bennett
Business in Vancouver
March 7, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Susan Yurkovich

Canfor posted a $63 million net loss in the fourth quarter of 2024 – a vast improvement over the $350 million net loss it posted earlier in Q3 2024. Other BC companies like West Fraser and Interfor have also reported improved sales numbers in the latter part of 2024. …“Following several quarters of very weak global lumber market conditions, we were pleased to see a slight uplift in North American benchmark lumber prices,” said Susan Yurkovich, Canfor’s CEO. …Owning sawmills in the US and Europe gives Canfor some insulation against duties imposed on Canadian softwood lumber imports into the US. …Canfor is looking at market diversification, however, to reduce its Canadian operations’ exposure to the US. …“Actual and potential tariffs do present challenges for the company’s Canadian operations, and, as result, the company is continuing its strategy of refocusing those products on domestic markets, particularly in Western Canada, and strengthening its presence in offshore markets.”

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Trump says tariffs on Mexico and Canada ‘could go up,’ declines to rule out possible recession

By Auzinea Bacon
CNN Business
March 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

President Donald Trump said tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico planned for April 2 “could go up,” and would not predict whether the United States will have a recession in 2025. On Fox News Sunday morning, Trump said reciprocal tariffs would go into effect on April 2 and the one-month reprieve granted to Mexico and Canada was a “little bit of a break.” …But Trump has continued to make changes to tariff plans. On Friday, he threatened new tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy products. Those tariffs could go into effect on Monday. …Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Trump’s promised 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will go into effect Wednesday and tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber products will “start on April 2.” …Lutnick indicated the tariffs will continue until Trump is “comfortable” with how both countries are handling the flow of fentanyl.

Related coverage in:

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Trump delays some tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month

By David Goldman
CNN Business
March 6, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

President Donald Trump on Thursday signed executive actions that delay for nearly one month tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada that are covered by the USMCA free trade treaty, a significant walkback of the administration’s signature economic plan that has rattled markets, businesses and consumers. The executive actions follow a discussion Trump held Thursday with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and negotiations between Canadian and Trump administration officials. …Energy from Canada, however, is not included in the USMCA, the White House official said. So that lower 10% tariff is expected to remain in place… but the Trump reduced the tariff on Canadian potash to 10%. …Canada will now pause their planned second round of tariffs on over 4,000 US goods until April 2, Canadian Minister of Finance Dominic LeBlanc said.

Related coverage in:

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Trump’s trade war will last for ‘foreseeable future,’ Trudeau says

By Uday Rana
Global News
March 6, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Justin Trudeau

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Thursday said he had a “colourful” phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, but the trade war imposed by the president will last for the “foreseeable future.” “I can confirm that it was a colorful call. And it was also a very substantive call,” Trudeau told reporters in Ottawa. He added, “We talked about a range of issues, of course, primarily the trade war that they have chosen to unjustly launch on Canada. …Trudeau added that Canada will not be backing down from its retaliation. …He also hinted at possible relief for Canadians affected by tariffs. …Trump said in a post Wednesday on his Truth Social platform that Trudeau called to ask him what can be done about the tariffs. “I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped,” Trump wrote.

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This Canadian forged the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Now he wants to save it

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey
Politico.com
March 5, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

OTTAWA — Steve Verheul used to get under the American trade negotiator’s skin. …Eventually, the Americans forged a deal with the Mexicans and Canadians, and in 2018 signed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. …Now, as Trump slams Canada and Mexico with new tariffs, Verheul and a pair of trade veterans want to save the USMCA. …Verheul is co-launching the Coalition for North American Trade, a three-nation business group advocating for the long-term benefits of free trade. The CNAT is the brainchild of Kevin Brady, the Republican former chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. …Earlier this year, the trio launched their coalition and today, they’re bringing their pitch to Washington. …But until tariffs disappear, Verheul sees no prospect for productive talks. “I think the only hope is that the impact on the US economy, and the stock market, and various companies is extreme enough to create pushback within the US,” he says.

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Canada requests WTO consultations with US over ‘unjustified tariffs,’ says ambassador

Reuters in CTV News
March 5, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

GENEVA — Canada has requested consultations with the United States on “unjustified tariffs” at the World Trade Organization, Canada’s ambassador to the WTO in Geneva said. “The U.S. decision leaves us with no choice but to respond to protect Canadian interests,” Ambassador Nadia Theodore said. …Bilateral consultations are the first stage of formal dispute settlement. If within 60 days no solution is found, then Canada could request adjudication by the Geneva-based organization’s Dispute Settlement Body. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced immediate 25% tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. imports. If need be, Canada will target another C$125 billion worth in 21 days’ time, he said. …China formally launched a dispute at the WTO on February 5 over a 10% tariff imposed by Trump on Chinese goods, in moves that raised concern about a new trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

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Williams Lake, BC mayor relieved as power plant closure averted

Jenifer Norwell and Akshay Kulkarni
CBC News
March 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

The mayor of Williams Lake, BC says he’s relieved that the provincial government and province’s power provider have stepped in to stop a local power plant from shutting down. The privately-held Atlantic Power Corporation has operated the Northwest Energy plant in the central BC community since 1993. Provincial utility B.C. Hydro purchases the plant’s power for the grid through 10-year agreements. Atlantic Power’s plant, which employs around 30 people, generates energy by burning biomass — primarily wood waste, fibre from sawmills, and logging debris. But last year, the corporations told BC Hydro that it would shut down the plant in January 2025 as it was no longer profitable, citing a lack of viable fibre supply amid the forest industry’s wider struggles. On Friday, BC Hydro announced it had reached a deal with Atlantic Power to save the plant, saying it provided ways to source and manage cost-effective fuel.

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Nova Scotia government awaiting news on feasibility study for new pulp mill in Liverpool

By Michael Gorman
CBC News
March 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Nine months after Northern Pulp started examining the viability of a new mill in Queens County, Premier Tim Houston says the work continues. Houston announced last May that his government and officials with Northern Pulp’s parent company had reached a settlement agreement that ended years of legal wrangling, and would allow time to explore the viability of constructing a new mill at or around the site of the former Bowater mill near Liverpool. That work was expected to take about nine months. On Friday, the premier told reporters that he believes the company is still working to complete its feasibility study. …Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton said the forestry sector needs a market for pulpwood and low-grade wood products to take the place of what Northern Pulp used to consume.  …Rushton noted that there could be other options, such as the creation of biofuels and aviation fuels using forestry byproducts.

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Irving Paper doesn’t want subsidy, calls for fix to high power rates

By Adam Hurts
The Telegraph-Journal
March 5, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Irving Paper says it doesn’t want a government subsidy to save jobs, but that the province does need to step in to find a solution to high electricity rates. That’s as the company is criticizing “management issues” at NB Power. The Saint John manufacturer announced that it is cutting 140 jobs at its Bayside Drive mill. ….But in a new letter, Irving Paper VP Mark Mosher said a subsidy won’t work as it’s a problem affecting all New Brunswick ratepayers. …“For all of New Brunswick’s energy intensive and trade exposed industries, the issues and repercussions of uncompetitive electricity rates are not new and continue to worsen.” …Natural Resources Minister John Herron recently said his department has been working with J.D. Irving to develop a “financially sustainable” solution that preserves jobs for New Brunswickers. [to access the full story a Telegraph-Journal subscription is required]

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US building material dealers sound off on tariff volatility

The HBS Dealer
March 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

As we enter what are typically the most profitable months for US builders, widespread uncertainty regarding pricing is casting a pall over the industry. Northeastern Retail Lumber Association (NRLA) crystallizes these concerns, noting that: “Despite repeated delays of tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, prices continue to fluctuate unpredictably, leading to hoarding by customers, delayed orders for restocking, and customers abandoning purchases due to sudden cost increases.” The NRLA says the current situation recalls the tumult of pandemic-era supply chain shortages. “Now, dealers are reporting the same patterns: unpredictable cost increases, uncertainty in securing supply, and customers unable to move forward with purchases due to rapidly shifting prices.” …NRLA writes that daily price changes are making it impossible for retailers to provide accurate quotes, which constricts pricing guarantees. …NRLA dealers are reporting that even U.S.-made manufactured materials are seeing price increases.

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Builders Stockpile Lumber, Swap Out Materials to Work Around Tariffs

By Rebecca Picciotto
The Wall Street Journal
March 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

When President Trump threatened new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China at the beginning of February, Steve Martinez flew into action. The Idaho-based general contractor spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on materials like lumber, windows, cabinetry and steel to stockpile them before the tariffs hit. …Since his lenders wouldn’t finance these purchases, he is paying out of pocket and using cash. Then after the president abruptly walked them back, Martinez was left with an upended business plan, less cash and feeling confused about what to do next. “I can’t keep ping ponging back and forth,” Martinez said. …Builders have been doing what they can to insulate themselves from higher import costs, from stockpiling materials and appliances to shrinking the size of the homes they will build. But if tariffs take effect long term, they will only be able to absorb so much cost. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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This Is No Way to Run a Trade War

By Peter Harrell, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The Wall Street Journal
March 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

Thousands of US companies opened for business on Friday with no idea whether they had to pay tariffs. …In imposing the tariffs, Mr. Trump misused the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Congress passed IEEPA to give presidents tools to respond quickly to emergencies like wars or terrorist attacks. …IEEPA has never been used for tariffs, and courts should rule that it can’t be. …US trade laws require the president to identify and investigate specific trade practices that harm the U.S. and then propose remedies, such as tariffs or negotiations. A president may impose tariffs on specific goods if fact-finding determines that imports threaten US national security. Mr. Trump’s reasons for imposing tariffs on Canada don’t appear to satisfy these standards. …Faced with Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, Canadian, Mexican and European officials have indicated that they are open to collective action against China, the world’s biggest exporter and a major source of US trade deficits. [to access the full story, a WSJ subscription is required]

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EU Commission commences investigation into Brazilian softwood plywood imports

By Stephen Powney
The Timber Trades Journal
March 7, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: International

The EU Commission has started an anti-dumping investigation on Brazilian softwood plywood imports following a complaint by the Softwood Plywood Consortium (SPC). A complaint was made on January 20… alleging that Brazilian softwood ply imports are being dumped in the EU, thereby injuring the EU ply sector. The product subject to investigation is plywood consisting of lamellas not exceeding 6mm thickness, with both outer plies of coniferous wood. The SPC has provided evidence to the EU Commission that imports of the product in question have increased overall in absolute terms and in terms of market share. Evidence also pointed to the volume and prices of the imported product having a negative impact on the quantities sold and level of prices charged by the EU industry, resulting in substantial adverse impacts for the latter. 

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Finance & Economics

The Reason So Much of America’s Lumber Comes From Canada

By Karuna Eberl
Family Handyman
March 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Now that a 25% tariff on lumber from Canada is looming, will this cause crazy wood pricing to return? To some extent, that is very probable, and here’s why. In 2024, our country got about 72% of its lumber from its own forests. The rest was imported from various countries, especially Canada, from which we purchased 28.1 million cubic meters last year. Canada accounts for 84.3% of all softwood lumber imports. …While it might be possible to switch to importing more lumber from other countries, none has Canada’s large production capacity. Also, supply chains — especially for lumber — are complex and costly to change, says Frederik Laleicke, at NC State University. …As long as demand for lumber doesn’t drop, a 25% tariff on Canada will likely make lumber—and therefore new houses and renovations—more expensive since US companies will raise the price of Canadian-sourced lumber to compensate for the tariffs.

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‘Very difficult position’: Bank of Canada expected to cut rate amid trade uncertainty

By Craig Lord
The Canadian Press in CTV News
March 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Tiff Macklem

OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement arrives on Wednesday in a cloud of uncertainty thanks to a shifting trade war with the United States. Most economists expect the central bank will deliver another quarter-point rate cut while it waits to see how long the dispute with Canada’s largest trading partner lasts. The Bank of Canada faces a difficult task: setting monetary policy at a time when inflation has shown signs of stubbornness and the economy picks up steam, while risks of a sharp downturn tied to U.S. tariffs loom on the horizon. …Even as U.S. President Donald Trump followed through on his promises to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods on March 4, the exact nature of those tariffs have shifted with a series of pauses and amendments in the days since.

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US lumber futures slide on Trump’s Canadian tariffs delay

By Susanna Savage
The Financial Times
March 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

US lumber futures have fallen from their all-time highs after president Trump’s delay to tariffs on Canada this week halted a surge in prices. Contracts tracking a truckload of lumber hit the highest point in their 30-month history this week. …Trump initially planned to impose 25% tariffs on critical Canadian imports, boosting prices, but Thursday’s pause for a month pushed prices for delivery in May down more than 6% over two days, to $651 per MBF. Even so, prices remain elevated as Trump also ordered a federal investigation into Canadian companies potentially dumping excess supplies into the US market. …Together with potential tariffs, the total duty on Canadian imports could rise from 14.5 per cent to 52 per cent. “This is going to be devastating for Canadian producers,” said Dustin Jalbert, senior economist for wood products at price reporting agency Fastmarkets. “No Canadian producer is making the margin to be able to absorb that.”

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US faces housing affordability crisis, calls for negotiated end to tariffs on Canadian lumber

By Buddy Hughes, Chairman
The National Association of Home Builders
March 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

WASHINGTON — Implementing policies to alleviate supply-side bottlenecks that are the main drivers of low housing supply and high home prices would help ease the nation’s housing affordability crisis and allow builders to increase the supply of attainable, affordable housing, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) told Congress. …To help address these issues, NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes called on Congress to take the following actions:

  • Preserve and strengthen key federal programs including the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, HUD Section 8 housing voucher programs
  • Support workforce development programs such as Job Corps and pass the CONSTRUCTS Act, legislation
  • Responsibly boost the domestic supply of lumber and call on the Trump administration to negotiate a long-term softwood lumber agreement with Canada that will end lumber tariffs, help stabilize this volatile market and give builders greater price stability
  • Pass the Identifying Regulatory Barriers to Housing Supply Act
  • Rein in excessive regulatory costs and reassert congressional authority over federal agencies’ rulemaking agendas. 

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Canfor reports Q4, 2024 net loss of $63 million

Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp Products Inc.
March 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

VANCOUVER, BC — Canfor Corporation reported its fourth quarter of 2024 results. Highlights include: Q4 2024 operating loss of $46 million; shareholder net loss of $63 million; Supply-driven uptick in North American lumber markets and pricing through the fourth quarter led to improved results from the Company’s Western Canadian and US South operations; another quarter of solid earnings from Europe; Improved results for Canfor Pulp; relatively stable global pulp market fundamentals through most of the fourth quarter, with some positive momentum late in the period; persistent challenges associated with the availability of economic fibre in British Columbia. …Canfor’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Susan Yurkovich, said, “Following several quarters of very weak global lumber market conditions, we were pleased to see a slight uplift in North American benchmark lumber prices during the fourth quarter, which gave rise to improved results across all our lumber operating regions.”

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Lumber Prices Hit Two-Year High As US Investigates Canadian Softwood

The Globe and Mail
March 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber prices have risen to their highest level in more than two years on news that U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation into softwood imports from Canada. The lumber probe is the latest salvo in an escalating trade war between the neighbouring countries. Analysts say that the investigation lays the groundwork for potential new %Tariffs on Canadian lumber, notably softwood imports. …Consequently, lumber futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have risen 3.5% over the past day to trade at $657 U.S. per 1,000 board feet, the highest level since mid-2022. However, while lumber prices are marching higher on the threat of U.S. tariffs, the stocks of Canadian lumber companies are tanking. Shares of Interfor fell 9% while the stock of %Canfor declined 6% in Toronto trading on March 4, the day that the 25% tariffs went into effect.

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US Consumer Housing Sentiment Down Year over Year for First Time Since 2023

Fannie Mae
March 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON, DC – The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased 1.8 points in February to 71.6, driven largely by consumers’ increased pessimism that mortgage rates will go down in the next year. The share of consumers who say it is a good time to buy a home inched up last month to 24%, while the share who say it is a good time to sell dipped to 62%. February also saw a notable decline in consumers’ optimism toward their personal financial situation, including household income and concern they could lose their job. Year over year, the HPSI is down 1.2 points. …Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “We continue to expect home sales activity to remain relatively light over our forecast horizon due to the ongoing lack of supply and overall unaffordability.”

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How Rising Costs Affect US Home Affordability

By Na Zhao
The NAHB Eye on Housing
March 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Housing affordability remains a critical issue, with 74.9% of US households unable to afford a median-priced new home in 2025, according to NAHB’s latest analysis. With a median price of $459,826 and a 30-year mortgage rate of 6.5%, this translates to around 100.6 million households priced out of the market, even before accounting for further increases in home prices or interest rates. A $1,000 increase in the median price of new homes would price an additional 115,593 households out of the market. The 2024 priced-out estimates for all states and the District of Columbia and over 300 metropolitan statistical areas are shown in the interactive map below. It highlights the growing housing affordability challenges across the United States. In 23 states and the District of Columbia, over 80% of households are priced out of the median-priced new home market. This indicates a significant disconnect between rising home prices and household incomes.

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US homebuilders face a supply chain snarl from tariff battles

By Thomas Seal and Prashant Gopal
Bloomberg in The Business Times
March 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

President Trump’s push for tariffs on Canada – and his subsequent delays and exemptions – are frustrating efforts to import lumber from the country and putting the building supply market on edge. The back-and-forth over whether tariffs will be imposed or not has businesses unable to trust price stability, and risks backing up the supply chain for US homebuilders. The reluctance to pay a tariff, which could be changed or cancelled any day, “freezes these markets up,” according to Don Magruder, who runs a building material company based in Florida. …Andy Rielly, president of Rielly Lumber in British Columbia, said he’s been in talks with long-term customers on how to divvy up the extra costs, but not everyone has been able to strike deals. …The US’s National Association of Home Builders chairman Buddy Hughes said tariffs risk worsening housing affordability. …The US Lumber Coalition said that lumber prices are only a fraction of homebuilding costs.

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Why the US National Association of Home Builders is hyper focused on tariffs

By Vincent Salandro
Builder Online
March 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Trump administration is moving at a record pace on a varied list of priorities, but insiders hope a focus on housing will remain at the top of the agenda in 2025. With housing affordability a central focus, bills addressing zoning, permitting, workforce development, and taxes are taking shape. …Despite all these areas of concern, one concern looms largest – tariffs. Approximately 22% of the products used in the average home are imported from China, 70% of lumber used in construction is sourced from Canada, and Mexico is the largest provider of gypsum. …The NAHB has advocated for an exemption for building materials, and the association continues to engage in conversations with lawmakers about the harmful effects these tariffs could have on housing affordability. NAHB’s Karl Eckhart says “These Canadian and Mexican tariffs are going to have a direct and painful impact on the price to build a house.”

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Made-in-U.S.A. Lumber Futures Are Coming to Wall Street

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal in Yahoo!Finance
March 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

Lumber producers have migrated from Canada to the US South. Now lumber-futures trading is heading to the Southern pineries as well. The exchange operator CME Group said it would launch trading in Southern yellow pine futures on March 31, a response to rising export taxes on Canadian lumber. The futures contracts—ticker: SYP—will give the South’s loblolly planters, loggers, sawmills, pressure treaters and builders a mechanism to manage their exposure to price swings that is more in line with the local market than existing futures. …Traders and the exchange have for years discussed Southern yellow pine futures as the region’s production grew. Now that Northern lumber is a lot more expensive, they are saying the time is right. …Southern yellow pine doesn’t always work as a substitute for the Northern species favored by home builders. But executives said the growing price difference is prompting pockets of buyers to swap.

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Wood, Paper & Green Building

Amid tariff dustup, RONA pivots to Canadian-made goods.

The HBS Dealer
March 10, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada

Hard-nosed tariffs imposed on Canadian goods may have been postponed until April 2, but RONA, one of Canada’s largest hardware and home improvement retailers, is making a play for more locally sourced products. The company says it will be highlighting over 6,500 Canadian-made products and will “make a concerted effort” to promote these items in RONA+ and RONA stores. The company, which has over 425 corporate and affiliate stores across Canada, says it’s responding to a growing demand from consumers and contractors who want to prioritize local products. “We’ve always had a strong selection of Canadian-made products. In fact, less than 10 percent of our supply comes directly from the United States. The challenge was primarily about making these products more visible.

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How Canada’s planning, design and construction industries can adapt to the Trump tariffs

By Lloyd Alter, Architect
Carbon Upfront!
March 5, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada

Planning, design and construction must adapt to this new world of tariffs and trade barriers. Canada has already imposed its own tariffs on products made in the US… but it is not just about materials and products; we must change what we build and where we build it. Some ideas for a Patriotic Canadian Built Environment: 1) More Mass Timber. Nordic, Element 5, Structurecraft and others have made major investments in mass timber, much of which is exported south. If the industry is to survive, we need a massive pivot to mass timber construction in Canada. …2) Make Canadian Wood Fibre Insulation. TimberHP in Maine has shown how a pulp and paper-based timber economy can pivot to insulation. …3) Electrify everything. Canada is an electricity powerhouse. Make every building Passivhaus to reduce demand and increase resilience. …4) Restructure from north-south to east-west. …5) More renovation and retrofit. …6) Design for a Sufficiency Economy. …7) Ban Sprawl.

 

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Canada’s counter tariffs bring procurement complications

The REMI Network
March 5, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada, United States

Procurement complications have arisen throughout Canada as businesses grapple with a long list of products from the US now to be subject to a 25% import tax. For the buildings sector, that brings supply chain challenges and added costs for construction, property/facilities management and operations with new surcharges attached to a broad range of structural materials, equipment and furnishings from the US. …The first round of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs are now in force. A subsequent roster of designated products, estimated at roughly $125 billion, has been posted for advance consultation. The new expanded list of Canadian countermeasures proposes tariffs on: key metals such as steel, iron, aluminum, copper, nickel, tin, titanium and zinc; stone such as granite, marble, travertine and sandstone; cement and concrete; gypsum and plasters; glass, ceramics and brick; rubber; plastics; and minerals and chemical formulations.

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Forestry

Trump’s Canadian tariffs include lumber. He is pushing to cut down American trees instead.

By Laura Paddison
CNN Climate
March 6, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump is promising to unleash the US timber industry by allowing companies to raze swaths of federally protected national forests. …His order — which calls for the ramping up of the domestic timber production to avoid reliance on “foreign producers” — was followed by sweeping 25% tariffs on Canadian products, including lumber. …However, it’s more complex than simply swapping out Canadian imports for homegrown timber, said industry experts. …Meanwhile, environmental groups say clearcutting national forests will pollute the air and water and exacerbate climate change. Anna Kelly, White House deputy press secretary, referred to multiple organizations that have released statements of support about opening up federal land for logging, including the American Loggers Council, the American Forest Resource Council and the Forest Landowners Association. Increasing logging on federal lands would increase the supply of logs for US industry, said FEA’s Rocky Goodnow… but it won’t replace Canadian imports in the near term.

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In support of clear-cutting.

By Brian LaPointe, Forestry Consultant
Castanet
March 7, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

Are clear-cuts in forestry bad? I would say no. Nature demands that there is a mosaic of age classes to support conservation of biodiversity. …Wildfire “clearcuts” following insect invasion, disease, wind or old old trees aging out in many forests. …Logging and tree planting have proven logged clear-cuts are a gentler treatment for refreshing forests when compared to traumatic wildfires. On top of the biodiversity and conservation benefits, we get socioeconomic benefits of forest products and employment and resulting government services and infrastructure. …In certain areas where trees are shade tolerant, such as in Interior Douglas Fir areas, various types of selection may be prescribed to fit the ecology of the site. Biodiversity provides for all species in a mosiac of different types across the landscape. Look outside, it is not one continuous environment.

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Northwest Forest Plan advisers told their committee will be disbanded

By April Ehrlich
Oregon Public Broadcasting
March 7, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US West

Federal officials are preparing to disband an advisory committee tasked with guiding policies for millions of acres of national forests in the Pacific Northwest. …The 21 members of the Northwest Forest Plan federal advisory committee… have been meeting since summer 2023, hashing out how to tackle wildfires, pests and diseases across nearly 25 million acres of national forests in Oregon, Washington and Northern California. On Thursday, officials with the US Forest Service told committee members the agency was likely to dissolve the group in the coming weeks. Some members said they had been expecting this news. …The Forest Service pulled the committee together to help amend the decades-old Northwest Forest Plan, a set of policies that came out of the timber wars of the 1980s and ’90s. …The committee delivered its recommendations to the Forest Service last year.

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Trump orders call to expand timber production. What does it mean for Oregon?

By Zach Urness
The Salem Statesman Journal
March 5, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US West

The Trump administration’s executive orders calling for the “immediate expansion” of timber production on federal lands appear poised to kick off a new chapter in how Oregon’s vast forests are managed — but what that will actually look like remains to be seen. Trump issued two executive orders last Saturday: the first to boost timber production and the second to address wood product imports. …The order gives public lands agencies 30 days to issue guidance on ways to increase timber production, reduce delivery times and “decrease timber supply uncertainty.” Timber groups back Trump’s plan, environmental groups call it ‘reckless’. …Timber groups and rural lawmakers said that in addition to increased harvests of board feet, the orders could help manage overstocked forests and reduce the threat of wildfire. …The threat of lawsuits, and how the orders will be implemented, weighted heavy on the mind of Oregon’s sole Republican member of Congress.

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Lawmakers, loggers long for Trump-driven revival of Wyoming’s dying timber industry

By Mike Koshmrl
The Wyoming Tribune Eagle
March 5, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US East

CHEYENNE, Wyoming — Rep. John Eklund thought back a half century, to an era when commercial sawmills processing Wyoming timber abounded and logging was the Equality State’s third-largest industry. “We should be able to get back to that,” the Cheyenne Republican said Tuesday morning in the Wyoming Capitol. …Commercial logging in national forests around the country, including Wyoming, has fallen off dramatically from its heyday. Cut and sold timber has stagnated at a fraction of what it was from the 1950s through the 1980s for three decades running, U.S. Department of Agriculture data shows. …Trump’s order isn’t the only prospective policy change afoot that could revitalize commercially cutting American forests. The “Fix Our Forests Act,” has passed the U.S. House of Representatives and moved to the U.S. Senate. The bill, proving divisive in big commercial timber country, would further expedite environmental reviews — and could potentially have immediate impacts in Wyoming.

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The European union deforestation regulation may boost low-deforestation countries like Canada and the United States

By Craig Johnston, Jinggang Guo and Jeffrey Prestemon
Science Direct
March 10, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: International

The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to prevent deforestation-linked products from entering the EU market. This study assesses the potential impacts of the EUDR on global forest product markets using the FOrest Resource Outlook Model (FOROM). We simulate two scenarios: the baseline EUDR, focused on commodity-driven deforestation and urbanization, and an extended EUDR+ scenario, which includes shifting agriculture. The results indicate that high-deforestation countries, such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia, are expected to face significant reductions in roundwood production and exports, with downstream effects on sawnwood and panel prices. In contrast, low-deforestation countries like Canada and the United States may experience slight increases in production to meet EU demand, but their impact is limited by moderate deforestation rates. The study also highlights the potential for market leakage, where deforestation-linked products may shift to non-EU markets, potentially undermining global environmental goals. 

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Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy

Canada is opening the floodgates on one of Earth’s greatest living reservoirs of CO2

By Barry Saxifrage
The National Observer
March 11, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: Canada

Canada’s managed forest is one of the largest living reservoirs of carbon on the planet. For centuries it slowly filled, as billions of growing trees pulled CO2 from the air and stored it away in their wood. This ancient, continent-spanning, “carbon sink” helped keep the climate calm and cool. But in the last couple of decades, the flow of CO2 has completely reversed. Chainsaws and fossil fuel pollution are cranking open the floodgates that hold back this enormous reservoir of forest carbon. What started as a trickle a couple of decades ago has turned into a flood. Billions of tonnes of CO2 that were locked away in the forest have already drained back out on the backs of logging trucks and in the swirling smoke of ever more monstrous wildfires. This outpouring of forest carbon back into the atmosphere now dwarfs the fossil fuel emissions of most nations. 

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Central America, Vancouver deals push Eastwood past 50% fund deployment

By Chris Janiec
Agri Investor
March 9, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: Canada, United States

Eastwood Forests has deployed slightly more than half of its debut fund through deals that have included acquisitions in Costa Rica, Panama and Canada. North Carolina-headquartered Eastwood announced its acquisition of 14,500 ha of northern Vancouver Island timberland from Western Forest Products for $69.2 million in February. …Eastwood VP for transactions Prab Dahal said “Western has done a good job in managing the forests but our philosophies are slightly different in that we probably would not have as much openings and as much clear-cuts as Western did in the past,” said Dahal. …“It has more versatility than the typical natural forest that we look for elsewhere,” said Dahal. “We can manage this purely for carbon and still do good, or manage purely as a plantation and continuously manage with a harvesting level that is sustainable and can do good, financially, for our investors.” …Eastwood was established in 2022. 

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