Blog Archives

Today’s Takeaway

US Senate considers Michael Boren to lead the US Forest Service

Tree Frog Forestry News
June 4, 2025
Category: Today's Takeaway

Confirmation of Michael Boren to lead the US Forest Service is underway in the US Senate. In other Business new: Lumber Liquidators are back in business; West Fraser renewed its credit agreement; International Paper is considering a new packaging facility in Salt Lake City, Utah; KPMG purchased the assets of BC forest tech firm LlamaZoo; US home prices rose but tariffs will hinder construction; and Rayonier touts the benefits of mass timber construction. 

In Forestry/Wildfire news: First Nations urge Quebec to scrap its forestry reform bill; the BC government and First Nations kick-off land-use planning in the northwest; logging is debated in Pennsylvania and Montana; US senators introduce bill to reduce wildfire risk with carbon removal; a new study says boreal wildfires will slow global warming; and wildfire updates from Saskatchewan; and the BC/Alberta border.

Finally, Europe’s largest floating housing development will include prefabricated CLT homes.

Kelly McCloskey, Editor

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Breaking News

Suzano and Kimberly-Clark announce the creation of a global tissue company operating in over 70 countries

By Suzano and Kimberly-Clark
Businesswire
June 5, 2025
Category: Breaking News
Region: United States, International

SÃO PAULO, Brazil — Suzano, the world’s largest pulp producer, and Kimberly-Clark announced the creation of a US$3.4 billion joint venture focused on the manufacture, marketing and distribution of consumer and professional tissue products, such as toilet paper, napkins, paper towels and facial tissues in over 70 countries. Suzano will acquire a 51% interest in the new entity, with Kimberly-Clark holding a 49% interest. Suzano will pay Kimberly-Clark US$1.734 billion in cash at the closing of the transaction. …The transaction is expected to close in mid-2026 and involves approximately 9,000 employees. The new business will be a company incorporated in the Netherlands and will include 22 manufacturing facilities located in 14 countries. Collectively, these facilities have capacity to produce 1 million tonnes of tissue a year. The assets to be included in the new joint venture generated net sales in 2024 of US$3.3 billion. Kimberly-Clark will retain its consumer tissue and professional businesses in the US.

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Special Feature

Navigating the Shifting Landscape of US Tariffs: Robert Mckellar

Kelly McCloskey, Editor
The Tree Frog Forestry News
June 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States

Robert McKellar

At International Pulp Week, political risk expert Robert McKellar delivered a timely and unconventional keynote that used a real-world policy shift to test a scenario-based approach to geopolitical uncertainty. Titled “Managing Geopolitical Uncertainty and Its Challenges,” the presentation featured a hypothetical pulp company navigating a shifting landscape of US tariffs, culminating in an unexpected twist: a policy reversal on tariffs the day after the analysis was completed. McKellar, Director of Harmattan Risk, emphasized from the outset that his session was not about delivering forecasts or policy advice, but about helping companies become more comfortable working with uncertainty. The tool he introduced—a scenario-based assessment—was less about pinpoint accuracy and more about creating a “living intelligence picture” to guide decisions in real time.

The unique twist, however, was that McKellar’s own process of preparing for the keynote presentation mimicked the very conditions of uncertainty he was seeking to illustrate. As he developed the ‘fictional company’ Thor Wood Pulp AB’s case study throughout late March and early April, the global trade landscape kept shifting. His assessment was finalized on April 8. On April 9, the Trump administration abruptly announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. This reversal not only disrupted his planned narrative, but underscored his entire thesis: in volatile times, any analytical framework must remain adaptive, fluid, and responsive. …In a world of rapid political change, pulp producers and global businesses don’t need perfect foresight. What they need is a way to stay balanced, make timely decisions, and keep moving forward—even when the path ahead is constantly shifting.

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Looking Back, Moving Forward: 20 Years of Industry Insights at IPW 2025

Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
June 2, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States, International

International Pulp Week 2025 opened in Vancouver with a note of celebration and reflection as delegates marked the event’s 20th anniversary. “After decades of being in Montreal in January… we decided to move the event to Vancouver and into the spring and summer months,” said Tim Brown, Vice-President at Numera Analytics. Over the years, Brown noted, the event has drawn participants from more than 50 countries and consistently focused on the industry’s most pressing challenges and opportunities. “It’s an industry that has innovated, adapted, and is one that itself is smarter and more sustainable.” Following Brown’s welcome, he introduced Kevin Mason, Managing Director of ERA Forest Products Research, who returned to the IPW stage to reflect on two decades of transformation in the global pulp sector—and to look ahead.

…Mason highlighting four key developments that have defined the past two decades: “A dramatic rise in demand for market pulp from China… Chinese demand met by massive growth in hardwood capacity in Latin America… hardwood steadily gained share versus softwood… and tissue expanded while printing and writing papers contracted.” Looking ahead, Mason projected the estimated end-use composition of pulp demand in 2040: tissue at 54%, specialty papers at 24%, packaging at 12%, fluff-based products at 7%, and graphic paper at 3%. He also shared a slide titled “Potential Developments Over the Next 20 Years,” listing several scenarios: continued expansion of domestic pulp capacity in China; hardwood gaining further share over softwood (though possibly nearing saturation); and the potential for dramatic growth in specialty papers and packaging—if government policy supports a shift away from plastics.

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Tariffs, Uncertainty, and the US Economic Outlook: A Macro View

Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
June 2, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: United States, International

At International Pulp Week 2025, the global macroeconomic backdrop took centre stage in a session led by Joaquin Kritz Lara, Chief Economist and Head of Macro at Numera Analytics. With trade tensions escalating and US tariffs rising sharply, Kritz Lara presented a data-rich assessment of the economic policy shifts reshaping global markets—and what they could mean for business decisions in the months ahead. “This year, the word of the year is ‘uncertainty,’” he said, echoing a sentiment already raised earlier in the conference. …Uncertainty, he stressed, has a clear and measurable impact: “If you’re a corporation, a high level of uncertainty essentially stifles decision-making… You postpone your projects just until you get a little more clarity around the rules of the game.”

For the US, tariffs present a dual threat. “They create uncertainty around growth, but they also create uncertainty around inflation,” he said. The risk, he argued, is stagflation—a combination of slowing economic activity and rising prices. …Kritz Lara cautioned that while inflationary pressures may ease absent new tariffs, markets are likely too optimistic about US growth. “We find a 75% chance that the economy will grow less than what the market expects it to grow next year,” he said. “That will likely reverse the US exceptionalism narrative.” In terms of interest rates, Kritz Lara believes the Fed may end up cutting more than markets expect. “If all those [macro expectations] are weaker than what the market expects, the chances of long-term rates falling are far higher than what the market is anticipating right now,” he said. “So again, this is not to say the debt situation doesn’t matter—but macro matters more.”

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Emerging Tools in the Pulp Sector: Carbon Removal and EU Deforestation Regulation Compliance

Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
June 2, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: International

The final two presentations at Day 2 of International Pulp Week introduced delegates to emerging business and compliance tools with implications for pulp producers globally. One focused on capturing and monetizing biogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂), the other on meeting the fast-approaching requirements of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Jonathan Rhone, CEO of CO280, began by stating that “capturing and permanently sequestering biogenic CO₂ from boiler stack emissions represents a $100 billion per year market opportunity for the global pulp and paper sector.” The market, he said, is being created by global technology and financial firms—“Microsoft, JPMorgan, Google”—that are purchasing high-durability carbon dioxide removals (CDRs) to meet their net zero obligations.

…Parker Budding, representing Osapiens, followed with a presentation on how pulp producers can prepare for the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which comes into force on December 31, 2025. The regulation prohibits companies from placing products on the EU market unless they can prove the goods are deforestation-free and legally produced.

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Softwood and Hardwood: Market Signals from Metsä Fibre and Suzano

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
June 2, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: International

At International Pulp Week, delegates heard directly from two of the world’s largest pulp producers on the state of global fibre markets—one representing softwood, the other hardwood. Mikko Antsalo, Senior Vice President of Sales and Supply Chain at Metsä Fibre, and Leonardo Grimaldi, Executive Vice President of Global Pulp Sales at Suzano, shared contrasting perspectives on supply, demand, and market dynamics across the fibre spectrum. …Mikko Antsalo began by stating, “Softwood pulp markets are projected to remain well-balanced,” citing steady demand growth and the absence of new capacity announcements as stabilizing factors. He concluded by reinforcing Metsä Fibre’s preparedness for the future: “We offer customers an optimized supply chain, fossil-free production, and are well positioned to fulfill upcoming sustainability requirements.”

…Leonardo Grimaldi then shifted focus to hardwood, providing a global view of bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BHKP) markets from the perspective of Brazil-based Suzano. He closed by showing that BHKP demand-to-capacity ratios are projected to remain under pressure through 2028, but may improve through a combination of fibre substitution, fossil-to-fibre applications, and unexpected supply shortages.

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Opinion / EdiTOADial

Forest Product Prices And Section 232 Tariff Exposure: ERA

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
June 4, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

As investors struggle to understand the implications of trade wars and the current tariff regime in the US, we offer our thoughts on the likely impacts (broken down by commodity). We note that trade parameters continue to change dramatically (e.g., tariffs blocked by the courts but then overturned on appeal). To be clear, tariffs are taxes on imports, with the degree of cost-sharing between importer and exporter determined by supply and demand. Some commodities experienced pre-tariff demand pull-forward, but, across the board, tariffs have reduced buyer appetite for any inventory accumulation and have had a generally chilling effect on investment, planning and normal business activity. We note that the ongoing Section 232 investigation into timber and timber products is sure to target lumber, but it may also expand to many others forest products. Uncertainty is now a constant in the sector.

…Tariffs on Canadian lumber imports are on hold pending the outcome of a Section 232 investigation. However, the long-standing softwood lumber dispute rumbles on; with duty rates set to more than double in the second half of 2025, price risk for S-P-F appears to be upside-weighted from current levels. SYP producers—and perhaps to a lesser extent European lumber exporters—should benefit from a drop in the volume of S-P-F going to the US when/if higher duties/tariffs are implemented. OSB and plywood could also be impacted by the Section 232 outcome. In OSB, a tariff on Canadian imports would likely see needed mill downtime north of the border.

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Business & Politics

US Lumber Coalition Comments on National Association of Home Builders FoxBusiness Statement

The US Lumber Coalition
June 4, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

The NAHB has a long-established policy priority of working with Canada to promote unfettered access to the US market for unfairly traded Canadian lumber. …In a recent FoxBusiness report highlighting falling lumber prices… CEO of the NAHB, again indicated a desire to ensure continued access to Canadian lumber imports by stating that “we need to make sure that we have a reliable, affordable source of lumber.” “It is no secret that Canada engages in harmful unfair trade practices,” stated Andrew Miller of Stimson Lumber Company, adding “yet NAHB continues to advocate for the importation of injurious unfairly traded Canadian lumber while paying lip service to the idea of fair and balanced trade. …”It is ironic that NAHB and Canada are pushing the theme that US consumers pay for the duties, yet they are spending upwards of $50 million dollars a year fighting against the imposition of antidumping and anti-subsidy duties,” said Zoltan van Heyningen.

Related coverage in Mortgage Professional America: Experts split over lumber market’s role in housing slump

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West Fraser Credit Facility and Term Loan Renewals Increase Liquidity

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.
June 2, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

VANCOUVER, BC — West Fraser Timber announced it has entered into a syndicated credit agreement providing for the renewal of its $1 billion credit facility and extension of the facility’s maturity from July 2028 to May 2030. The renewed credit facility is undrawn and is made available on substantially the same terms and conditions as the Company’s existing credit facility. Additionally, the Company has increased and extended its existing $200 million term loan maturing July 2025. The new term loan is for $300 million and matures May 2028.  “We exited the first quarter of 2025 with more than $1.4 billion of available liquidity, and with this renewed credit facility and expanded term loan we have further strengthened West Fraser’s near-term liquidity and financial flexibility,” said Sean McLaren, President and CEO, West Fraser.

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Sinclar Group Forest Products founders recognized with lifetime achievement award

By Ted Clarke
The Prince George Citizen
June 7, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Bob Stewart & Ivan Andersen

 In 1962, Bob Stewart and Ivan Andersen became business partners as lumber wholesalers after years of working in the Sinclair Mills planer mill northeast of Prince George. …In the late 1960s Stewart and Andersen expanded their operations to lumber manufacturing when they teamed up with Apollo Forest Products in Fort St. James and the L&M Lumber in Vanderhoof, and in 1971 they opened the Nechako Lumber planer mill in Vanderhoof. Their continued success led to purchases of two Prince George sawmills — Lakeland Mills in 1973 and The Pas Lumber Company in 1987. …Stewart died in 2003, followed by Andersen in 2011 and on May 5, 2025 in a ceremony in Vancouver they were inducted into the Business Laureate BC Hall of Fame. The award recognizes the lifetime achievements of outstanding BC business leaders whose efforts have shaped our province and country. Sinclar president Greg Stewart says the principles of running a third-generation family business established by his grandfather Bob and Ivan Andersen continue to guide the company’s daily operations. 

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Yu wants Prince George to factor into provincial, federal economic plans

By Colin Slark
The Prince George Citizen
June 5, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Simon Yu

With BC Premier David Eby currently on a trade mission to Asia and Prime Minister Mark Carney looking to establish an east-west energy corridor, Prince George Mayor Simon Yu has hopes that his city will be part of the provincial and federal government’s plans to diversify the Canadian economy. Yu said it was great to see the premier head to Asia to visit some of the province’s biggest customers. …“We are looking forward to the premier perhaps re-establishing a BC trade mission in Asia in a much broader, prominent way,” he said. The mayor said he was also hoping that the premier promotes BC’s timber industry while in Asia. While the US will always be one of our biggest customers despite the ongoing trade disputes with the Trump Administration, Yu said having secondary customers in Asia would help stabilize the supply chain.

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Lumber producer Remabec cuts 1,000 jobs in Quebec, citing tariffs

By Mathieu Dion
Bloomberg News in the Financial Post
June 5, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

One of Canada’s lumber producers, Groupe Rémabec, will temporarily lay off most of its workers as the industry faces rising US duties and weakening demand. The manufacturing division, Arbec Forest Products, is shutting down indefinitely, leading to more than 1,000 immediate job cuts. The number may reach 1,400 in the coming weeks, according to a company statement that blamed “persistent imbalances in both access to the resource and international markets.” Groupe Rémabec employs about 2,000 people and is headquartered in La Tuque, Quebec, about 300 kilometers north of Montreal. President Trump’s administration is poised to more than double the duties on Canadian softwood lumber.  …Rémabec said, with Arbec’s deposits representing an “astronomical amount.” …Rémabec also said a “feeling of exasperation is widespread” in the Quebec forestry industry over regulations that have created “an increasingly unstable ecosystem, without predictability or coherence.” The Quebec government has been trying to modernize its forestry legislation.

Related coverage in the Globe & Mail: Groupe Rémabec scales back operation

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Will recent mergers in the global pulp and paper industry partly offset trade tensions?

By Simon Matthis
PulpaperNews.com
June 5, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

While the pulp and paper industry is inherently local—particularly in terms of production and sourcing of raw materials—trade is fundamentally cross-border and international. As a result, the sector is highly exposed to trade barriers and tensions, such as those created by the tariff policies introduced during the Trump administration. Tariffs are expected to put significant pressure on transportation and logistics—sectors that are intrinsically linked to the pulp and paper industry. This strain is partly mitigated by the fact that many pulp and paper companies have made substantial investments in overseas production capacity. Recent mergers in the industry, such as the Smurfit Kappa–WestRock merger and the International Paper–DS Smith merger, are also likely to offset some of the negative impacts of tariffs. These newly formed giants now operate production facilities in both Europe and the US. …This consolidation trend may render the pulp and paper industry more resilient. 

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International Paper to Explore Building a New State-of-the-Art Sustainable Packaging Facility in Salt Lake City, Utah

By International Paper
PR Newswire
June 3, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US West

MEMPHIS, Tennissee — International Paper announced the strategic exploration of a new sustainable packaging facility in Salt Lake City, Utah. The exploration of a prospective new facility is part of International Paper’s strategic growth plans to expand manufacturing capabilities in the US. The company is eyeing Utah to increase its footprint in the region and better serve customers by meeting the growing demand for high-quality, sustainable packaging. This announcement comes shortly after the company celebrated the groundbreaking of a new state-of-the-art sustainable packaging facility in Waterloo, Iowa. …”This exploration would be a new market for IP and an opportunity to better serve existing customers in the region,” said John Berry, Packaging Group West.

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Domtar awaits permits to kickstart anaerobic digester project

By Allison Winters
The TimesNews
June 4, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

KINGSPORT, Tennessee — It could be the third or fourth quarter of 2026 before an anaerobic digester is completed to help with odor mitigation at the Kingsport mill, Domtar officials shared Tuesday. Charlie Floyd, VP of strategic capital projects for Domtar, and Bonnie Depew, environmental manager at Domtar’s Kingsport mill, presented updates about Project Bandit to the Kingsport Economic Development Board. Floyd said the biggest holdup is waiting on permits from the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. TDEC has already asked for two extensions to review the permit application, state records show. …His hope is for the permit to be in the hands of Domtar by the end of the month. Over 80% of the equipment for the anaerobic digester has been purchased, according to Floyd. …At the height of construction, Floyd said there will be around 150 contractors on site to help build the digester and associated equipment.

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BlueLinx Announces Expansion of Distribution Partnership with LP Building Solutions

By BlueLinx
The Financial Times
June 2, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

ATLANTA — BlueLinx and Louisiana-Pacific announces the expansion of their distribution partnership to Springfield, Missouri. The expanded collaboration will include LP’s renowned Siding Solutions brands and prefinished solutions, namely LP® SmartSide® Trim & Siding and LP® SmartSide® ExpertFinish® Trim & Siding. This strategic move expands BlueLinx’s stocking footprint of LP® SmartSide® to 19 locations, spanning five of BlueLinx’s regions across the United States.

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New EU deforestation rules progress, despite New Zealand opposition

By Monique Steele
The New Zealand Herald
June 5, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: International

New Zealand exporters sending wood, beef and leather products to the European Union will soon have to comply with new rules that aim to reduce deforestation in the supply chain. New Zealand government officials and industry opposed the approach to anti-deforestation taken by the incoming European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). This was due to increased compliance costs exporters would face in proving their products had not contributed to the loss of trees. …For New Zealand, this will affect the $213 million export trade. Exporters of wood products – a trade to Europe valued at around $100 million – would be required to provide traceability processes to show that their products did not contribute to deforestation, too. …The Wood Processors and Manufacturers’ Association’s Mark Ross, said a working group with forest growers, wood processors, and the Government had been set up to work through some issues, such as geolocation requirements.

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UPM invests over 10 million euros in UPM Tervasaari mill in Finland

UPM Specialty Papers
May 28, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: International

UPM Specialty Papers will invest over 10 million euros in the modernization of UPM Tervasaari mill in Valkeakoski, Finland. The investment will allow UPM Specialty Papers to boost capacity and improve production stability in its highly specialized products, such as glassines and flexible packaging papers. …“This investment underscores our commitment to serving customers in the label, tape and industrial value chains as well as packaging,” highlights Tomi Lonka, Senior Vice President, Global Specialty Papers, UPM Specialty Papers. The modernization project includes the paper machine drying section rebuild and related steam system upgrade. The project is expected to be completed at the end of 2026. In recent years UPM has also invested approximately 20 million euros in boosting the energy efficiency of UPM Tervasaari mill. For example, in 2023, a new electric boiler was installed.

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Finance & Economics

Global Pulp Outlook: Short-Term Recovery, Structural Divergence Ahead

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

The final presenter at International Pulp Week, Emanuele Bona, VP of Europe for the Pulp and Paper Products Council (PPPC), provided a comprehensive update on global market pulp demand trends, with a particular focus on the rebound underway in 2025 and the longer-term outlook for key markets and product segments. Bona began by noting that 2024 had been a weak year for market pulp demand, with global chemical market pulp demand falling by 0.9 percent. However, the first months of 2025 showed a marked improvement. “In 2025, after four months, demand is up almost one million tonnes,” he reported. Both softwood and hardwood pulp segments contributed to this recovery. …Looking ahead, Bona projected that global market pulp demand would return to growth but at a more moderate pace. “Growth to average 1.5 percent through 2029,” he said. The long-term trend for softwood pulp was expected to remain flat at best, while hardwood demand growth was projected to slow despite ongoing substitution trends.

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Pulp Markets Outlook: Global Tissue Growth to Ease, Printing Decline Slows

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

At International Pulp Week, Mathieu Wener, Senior Economist at Numera Analytics, provided a detailed overview of current trends in key end-use markets for pulp, with a particular focus on tissue and printing and writing papers. Drawing on recent data and modelling, he examined how these sectors have evolved post-pandemic, what is driving demand patterns today, and what may lie ahead. Wener began with tissue markets, where profitability has remained strong despite considerable cost pressures in recent years. “Producers passed through rising costs since 2022,” he noted, showing how eurozone parent roll and pulp prices had shifted over that period. Although price differentials between pulp and tissue had narrowed, margins remained healthy.” …Wener underscored the importance of tracking both macroeconomic forces and demographic trends in shaping pulp demand. For tissue, slowing population growth and cautious consumer behaviour would temper growth expectations. For printing and writing papers, the secular decline would continue, but at a somewhat more stable pace.

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China’s Pulp Supply Chain: Insights on Trade, Logistics and Futures Markets

Kelly McCloskey, Editor
The Tree Frog Forestry News
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

At International Pulp Week, three speakers discussed businesses that connect to China’s role in the global pulp industry — including trading, port logistics and the futures market. Haidong Weng, Executive Vice President of Pulp & Paper Research at Xiamen C&D… explained that after the US implemented its third wave of tariffs, Chinese exports of paper and board to the US fell sharply, with vessel density in major Chinese ports reflecting a significant pullback in trade flows. …He also described the cascading effects on US retail markets. …The scale and resilience of China’s port logistics were front and centre in a presentation by Tian Jun, representing the Shanghai International Port Group’s Luo Jing Terminal. Tian explained that SIPG views pulp as a strategic growth cargo across its network of general cargo terminals. …Another presentation came via video from Chi-Fei Fei of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), who provided an overview of China’s pulp futures market.

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Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2.75%

The Bank of Canada
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. Since the April Monetary Policy Report, the US administration has continued to increase and decrease various tariffs. China and the US have stepped back from extremely high tariffs and bilateral trade negotiations have begun with a number of countries. However, the outcomes of these negotiations are highly uncertain, tariff rates are well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, and new trade actions are still being threatened. Uncertainty remains high. While the global economy has shown resilience in recent months, this partly reflects a temporary surge in activity to get ahead of tariffs. …In Canada, economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%. …CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in April. …Excluding taxes, inflation rose 2.3% in April.

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LBM Dealers comment on how lumber and other materials sold will be impacted by tariffs

The LBM Journal
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

There has been a lot of news recently on higher tariffs between the U.S. and its trading partners, including Canada and Mexico. One concern that is top of mind for many LBM dealers is how these new tariffs will affect lumber and other materials sold at yards and stores across the country. How concerned should I be and what action, if any, can I take to protect my business? Responses from lumberyards, full-line building material dealers, and specialty dealers/distributors:

  • Stock up heavy now and ride the wave. Things will straighten up.
  • Keep a sharp eye on inventory levels and don’t make any rash moves. Steady as she goes!
  • When the tariff goes on, adjust your prices that same day.
  • Don’t quote too far in the future. Quote only subject to tariffs.
  • Communicate with customers and suppliers regularly. Keep things transparent when possible.

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Straight talk on tariffs: Brass tacks guidance amid ongoing uncertainty

By Neil Agarwal, Frisco Woodline CEO
The HBS Dealer
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Uncertainty regarding tariffs continues to challenge companies across industries. It’s a common theme in every conversation I’ve had with fellow business owners lately: How do we plan, price or grow when the rules are constantly shifting? In our case, the lumber industry got a temporary break—framing lumber from Canada, which makes up over 30% of the US market, was exempt from the original tariffs. That’s good news for now, especially for residential construction. But there’s still no clarity on imports from other key countries like Brazil and China, where tariffs remain in full effect. That could have a serious impact on specialty products like Ipe and hardwood veneers. Other building materials—fasteners, finishes, flooring, and more—are also caught in the middle. …That cost will be passed on to the end user. Businesses like ours don’t have the luxury of absorbing increased costs indefinitely. If we did, we’d be out of business.

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RBC forecasts further declines in lumber and OSB prices

Investing.com
June 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

On Monday, RBC analysts reported a decrease in the prices of lumber and oriented strand board (OSB) over the past week. The Framing Lumber Composite price fell by $4 to $438, while the OSB Composite price dropped by $7 to $282, according to Random Lengths data. These price movements are particularly relevant for building materials companies like AZEK, a significant player with a $7.17 billion market capitalization and strong 37.22% gross margins. RBC Elements, in collaboration with its in-house data science team, developed a multi-variable time series model to project future price movements. This model estimates that the Framing Lumber Composite will decrease by an additional $1 to $437 in the coming week. Similarly, the OSB Composite is forecasted to decline by $5 to $277 next week, based on the same predictive model. These projections are part of RBC’s ongoing analysis of the paper, packaging, and forest product sectors.

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If a Tree Falls in the Forest: Softwood Lumber Trade

By Sean Steuart, Kasia Trzaski Kopytek, Chris Krueger
TD Securities
June 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

For Canadian lumber producers, US market access restrictions are a long-term reality. We expect increasing duty rates plus an incremental tariff will be applied to Canadian lumber imports by the third quarter of 2025 (Q3/25). …Short-term hurdles are notable (demand headwinds, rising US duties, and expected incremental tariffs) but for some companies, we believe that recent valuation contractions discount excessive risk. …A mutual lumber trade agreement between Canada and the US is not expected in the near- to medium-term but is more likely in five years. …We include an incremental US 25% tariff applied to Canadian lumber imports (Section 232 investigation) starting Q3/25 in addition to cumulative countervailing duties (CVD)/anti-dumping duties (ADD) collection rates expected to rise to almost 35% for most sawmills by mid-Q3/25. For the average Canadian sawmill, we estimate that Canadian lumber prices would need to rise 30% from current levels to pass on the increase to duty deposit rates plus the incremental tariff to customers.

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Fight over lumber tariffs could reshape future of US home building

By Aislinn Murphy
Fox Business News
June 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber is in the spotlight as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the US Lumber Coalition disagree over what’s behind the U.S. housing market slump. The NAHB has pointed to tariff uncertainty and lumber prices as being partly responsible. The US’s current anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duty on imported Canadian softwood lumber stands at 14.5%. It could potentially climb later in the year to nearly 35%. “I share President Trump’s desire to create fair and balanced trade across our borders, certainly would bring back as much production as we can,” NAHB CEO Jim Tobin said. “But until we do that, and it will take years and millions of dollars of investment, we need to make sure that we have a reliable, affordable source of lumber.” …The US Lumber Coalition has also been critical of Canada, saying that “ongoing unfair trade practices” by its lumber industry have been “extremely harmful to US lumber producers.”

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US growth forecast cut sharply by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as Trump tariffs sour global outlook

By Sophie Kiderlin
CNBC News
June 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

Economic growth forecasts for the US and globally were cut further by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OEDC) as President Trump’s tariff turmoil weighs on expectations. The US growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025. The fallout from Trump’s tariff policy, elevated economic policy uncertainty, a slowdown of net immigration and a smaller federal workforce were cited as reasons for the latest downgrade. Global growth, meanwhile, is also expected to be lower than previously forecast, with the OECD saying that “the slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico”. “Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026. It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026. …The OECD adjusted its inflation forecast, saying “higher trade costs will also push up inflation.”

Related news in the Financial Post: Canada to take brunt of one of the worst slowdowns since the pandemic, warns OECD

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Bill Championed by NAHB Would Address Major Flood Mapping Issue in California, Nationwide

By Evan Loukadakis
The National Association of Home Builders
June 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Legislation that NAHB has been seeking for two years that would allow new housing developments to go forward in California and bring down insurance costs for home buyers and home owners was introduced in Congress. This legislation represents an important win. …The Keeping Homeownership Costs Down Act (H.R. 3800) would allow the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to resume processing certain floodplain map changes to allow new home building projects to advance and help ease affordability challenges. In May 2023, FEMA suspended processing of Letters of Map Revision (LOMR) and Conditional Letters of Map Revision (CLOMR) in dozens of California counties. The practical effect of this suspension is that it increases the ownership costs for tens of thousands of new housing units. …Although this mapping issue has primarily affected California, this legislation would ensure similar problems are not repeated in other states that have federally protected species that reside within floodplain areas.

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Wood, Paper & Green Building

A Guide to Mass Timber Construction: The Future of Sustainable Architecture and The Role of Forestry

Rayonier Inc.
June 3, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: United States, US East

Mass timber, a renewable, durable, environmentally friendly building material, is changing the building industry for the better. In this article, we take a deeper look at the environmental, economic and human benefits of mass timber and highlight some mass timber success stories. …In this guide, we’re looking at the benefits of mass timber and how it is reshaping the commercial building industry. We’re also taking a close look at the story of 619 Ponce, an entirely locally-sourced mass timber structure championed in part by the Georgia Forestry Foundation in the heart of Atlanta.

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Rotterdam’s first mass-timber apartment building is homage to its post-war housing blocks

By Jon Astbury
Dezeen Magazine
June 7, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: International

©Powerhouse LinkedIn

Dutch studio Powerhouse Company has completed Valckensteyn in Rotterdam, a mass-timber block of affordable apartments that references the area’s iconic post-war social housing. Located in the neighbourhood of Pendrecht, the block of 82 affordable rental apartments is Rotterdam’s first mass-timber residential building. Completed for local housing corporation Woonstad Rotterdam, the block was designed by Powerhouse Company to be a homage to the neighbourhood’s iconic post-war housing blocks. …While concrete was used to construct both this central core and a ground floor plinth, the rest of the building was constructed from cross-laminated timber (CLT), which Powerhouse Company feels is an “essential” material for meeting housing demands. …”We believe that wood is the material of the future not only because of its environmental footprint benefits, but also for efficiency reasons,” Prins told Dezeen.

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Forestry

Stopping wildfires with trees: How thousands of aspen seedlings could help protect Whitehorse

By Andrew Hynes
CBC News
June 8, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

Crystal To… is part of a small crew of tree planters who are slowly filling the Whitehorse South fuel break with aspen. It’s her first time doing the job. …The goal of the fuel break is to protect the capital city from wildfires by creating a natural barrier, removing all the highly flammable conifers in an 800-hectare area and replacing them with more fire-resistant aspens. The Yukon government began work on the fuel break in 2020, near the Mary Lake subdivision. It’s one of the first such projects in Canada, and the goal is to have it finished by 2032. The aspens are being planted by the thousands every summer. This year, 232,000 seedlings will be planted.

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In Washington’s forests, Trump’s timber mandate looks shaky

By Nathan Vanderklippe
The Globe and Mail
June 8, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States

It was not long ago that the small town of Darrington, Washington drew its life from the towering stands of Douglas fir, cedar and hemlock on federal lands. …Efforts to protect the spotted owl severely restricted timber sales on federal land. “We’ve struggled since the owl wars to find an economy,” says Dan Rankin, who grew up in a local logging family and has for the past 14 years been the mayor of Darrington. So Mr. Rankin had reason for hope when Donald Trump re-entered the White House with promises to start cutting trees again. …But more than four months into Mr. Trump’s turbulent second mandate, an alternative outcome is already looming: that the dramatic actions his administration has taken since its return to office could result in fewer federal trees being cut. …Mr. Rankin’s worries are rooted in what he has seen happening at the U.S. Forest Service office. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]

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Pacific Northwest startup promising to replant forests faces allegations of deception in whistleblower lawsuit

By Justin Higginbottom
Oregon Public Broadcasting
June 8, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US West

Seattle-based Mast Reforestation had a novel idea to help save the planet: sell voluntary carbon credits and use that money to replant forests destroyed by wildfire. …Mast positioned itself as a rising star in the carbon credit market, claiming to be the only “vertically-integrated reforestation carbon credit developer in the industry.”…Now, the company is facing allegations that it deceived potential partners to secure its reforestation projects. The way Mast structures its credits is central to the controversy. Mast sells carbon credits to businesses that want to voluntarily offset emissions. …But Mast’s model hinges on future climate benefits. Instead of waiting for trees to grow and capture carbon, Mast sells its credits based on projections of reductions. …In a wrongful termination lawsuit filed in Siskiyou County, Mast’s former senior director of business development Arnoud de Villegas, claims the company misled potential partners.

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Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy

Does planting trees really help cool the planet?

By Julie Bernstein
University of California, Riverside
May 29, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: United States, International

Replanting forests can help cool the planet even more than some scientists once believed, especially in the tropics. But even if every tree lost since the mid-19th century is replanted, the total effect won’t cancel out human-generated warming. …In a new study published in Communications Earth & Environment, researchers at the University of California, Riverside, showed that restoring forests to their preindustrial extent could lower global average temperatures by 0.34 degrees Celsius. That is roughly one-quarter of the warming the Earth has already experienced. The study is based on an increase in tree area of about 12 million square kilometers, which is 135% of the area of the US. …It is believed the planet has lost nearly half of its trees since the onset of industrialized society.  “Reforestation is not a silver bullet,” said Bob Allen, at UC Riverside and the lead author. “It’s a powerful strategy, but it has to be paired with serious emissions reductions.”

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Health & Safety

Canada wildfires smoke turns UK skies orange

By Matt Taylor
BBC News
June 8, 2025
Category: Health & Safety
Region: Canada, International

The sun and sky had a much more eerie appearance to it on Saturday evening and Sunday morning. It was a sign that smoke from wildfires burning more than 4,000 miles (6,400km) away in central Canada had made it across the Atlantic to sit in the skies over the UK. BBC WeatherWatchers from all corners of the country were out capturing the spectacle. …The change in the appearance of the sun and sky is due to smoke particles in the atmosphere scattering the blue wavelengths of light more, allowing predominantly orange and red hues to reach our eyes. …The presence of wildfire smoke from North America over the UK, whilst not common, does occasionally happen during the summer months. …Here in the UK, the smoke plume is at too high an altitude to affect our air quality.

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BC Wildfire Service working to address mental health toll on firefighters

By Sarah Adrian
The Trail Times
June 5, 2025
Category: Health & Safety
Region: Canada, Canada West

Fighting forest fires has always been a physically demanding and dangerous job. But it can take a toll on firefighters’ mental health as well. In 2023, the deaths of six wildland firefighters in B.C. highlighted the importance of mental health, both for frontline responders and support staff. Wildland firefighters are challenged with stress and exhaustion, but the loss of colleagues heavily contributed to the mental toll on firefighters during the 2023 wildfire season, said Jessa Barber, a former wildland firefighter who is now a safety officer with the BC Wildfire Service. …BC Wildfire said it is being proactive, implementing policies and practices to support the mental health of its staff. …One of these practices is the New Recruit Boot Camp, which prioritizes educating recruits about the risks and dangers of being a wildland firefighter both physically and mentally. Ongoing support is provided to recruits.

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Huge, self-driving trucks roll onto Canada’s most treacherous roads

By Anita Balakrishnan
The Logic
June 6, 2025
Category: Health & Safety
Region: Canada, Canada West

Deep in the wilderness, a semi truck cab carves a path through the snow, slowing as it approaches a one-lane bridge. …The situation would be anxiety-inducing for a human, but this truck cab is driving itself. It’s using a system developed by NuPort Robotics, a Toronto-based autonomous-driving startup. It’s just a test run—but one day, Canada’s north could be criss-crossed with self-driving trucks hauling huge loads on dangerous roads. …Seasonal logging firms struggle to compete with oil and mining companies for trained drivers. …The company has been in talks with several forestry companies to try and drum up more business. They’re looking for help, he said, to relieve driver fatigue, determine which complicated maneuvers can be automated, and which, like strapping logs to trucks, must be done by humans. NuPort is also testing how the technology reacts to unexpected issues like a log falling into the road.

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Forest Fires

Crews responding to out-of-control wildfire on Vancouver Island

By Ethan Morneau
Chek News
June 8, 2025
Category: Forest Fires
Region: Canada, Canada West

BC Wildfire Service crews are responding to an out-of-control, 10-hectare blaze south of Sproat Lake on Vancouver Island and say it’s expected to spread. Gordon Robinson, Coastal Fire Centre information officer, tells CHEK News 18 firefighters, three helicopters and a response officer are on scene in the Beverly Main area, west of Port Alberni. The fire currently measures 10 hectares, reads information online. The blaze was discovered on Sunday – and as of around 2 p.m., it’s listed as “out-of-control,” meaning it’s “anticipated to spread beyond the current perimeter or control line. Robinson says the fire is believed to be human-caused because there hasn’t been any lightning in the area. Crews are trying to determine the cause, the BC Wildfire website says, adding that such investigations “often take time and can be very complex.”

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